HorsesAss.Org

Clinton	Bush
56.0% probability of winning	44.0% probability of winning
Mean of 273 electoral votes	Mean of 265 electoral votes

Poll analyses are back! Yes…after about four years of rest, I’ve decided to get back into the poll analysis business. If you are unfamiliar with my analyses, take a look at the FAQ. This is a shakedown run with a new HA template, so feel free to mention quirks or problems in the comment thread.

I’ve started with a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush. I know, I know, it should be a match-up against Donald Trump instead of Bush. The problem is, there are a total of 20 state head-to-head polls available that match-up Hillary and Donald. For Clinton–Bush match-ups at the state level, there are 212 polls. Apparently, pollsters haven’t quite gotten serious about Trump. I expect that most state head-to-head polls will start including him, however.

For the same reason—lack of state head-to-head polling—I cannot really provide analyses for Sanders, O’Malley, Webb, Biden, Warren, Warner, Cuomo, Schweitzer, or any other Democrat (for now). I will, however, do Republicans other than Jeb Bush, because the polling exists.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Hillary Clinton wins 56,003 times and Bush wins 43,997 times (including the 2,369 ties, which go to the Republican for 2016). Clinton received (on average) 273 to Bush’s 265 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would be expected to win with a 56.0% probability and Bush with a 44.0% probability. That is a close result…damn near a tie.

I remind you that these analyses are driven by state head-to-head polls, not national polls. The state-wide polls are aggregated in a way that emulates the electoral college.

A peek at the long term trend is given after the jump….
[Read more…]

– Another Birthright Citizenship link in an open thread. This time from Eric Foner in The Nation.

– Other than the legitimate dome-related questions I raised on Twitter, my main issue with Walker’s Canada wall idea is will it go all the way to the Beaufort Sea?

– Seattle, nice job using somewhat less water.

– Feminist_Tinder is pretty funny.

– I’m not a big fan of country music, but I found this analysis of some Martina McBride songs interesting.

– God-Man! (with minor character God-Girl)

I am not a Seahawks fan. I will never be a Seahawks fan. At best, I couldn’t give a flying fuck about the Seahawks; at worst, I root against them, if only to return the schadenfreude some local friends and family members have enjoyed in rubbing the Seahawks’ recent success in my face.

One score and seven years since leaving my native Philadelphia, I remain a loyal Eagles fan. And any Seahawks fan who questions the depth of my unswerving loyalty doesn’t really deserve the designation “fan” at all. (Note: this is different from all you Packers fans and Cowboys fans who have no geographic or familial connection to your teams. You’re just assholes.)

Which brings me to my annual preseason rant: Why won’t the NFL let me pay to watch my team?

Yes, DirecTV offers a streaming only version of its NFL Sunday Ticket, but I’m not sure to whom—every zip code I plug in doesn’t qualify. And even if I did qualify, I’m not sure I’d be willing to pay $400 (plus tax, I presume) for 10 or so Eagles games (some are available broadcast, others I’ll miss due to other commitments), let alone the minimum $1,000 or so a year it would cost to fully subscribe to DirectTV and Sunday Ticket.

I don’t want to purchase every out-of-market game. I just want the out-of-market games of one team. My team. The Philadelphia Eagles. So why won’t the NFL let me stream my games legally?

Charge me a reasonable price for a high-quality stream of just one team—say, $200 a season, or maybe $15 a game—and I’ll happily pay it. But if the NFL continues to put its head in the sand and pretend expatriate fans like me don’t have other options, don’t blame us if we look to the black market.

Genesis 11:10-24
Two years after the flood, when Shem was one hundred, he had a son named Arpachshad. He had more children and died at the age of six hundred. This is a list of his descendants:

When Arpachshad was thirty-five, he had a son named Shelah. Arpachshad had more children and died at the age of four hundred thirty-eight.

When Shelah was thirty, he had a son named Eber. Shelah had more children and died at the age of four hundred thirty-three.

When Eber was thirty-four, he had a son named Peleg. Eber had more children and died at the age of four hundred sixty-four.

When Peleg was thirty, he had a son named Reu. Peleg had more children and died at the age of two hundred thirty-nine.

When Reu was thirty-two he had a son named Serug. Reu had more children and died at the age of two hundred thirty-nine.

When Serug was thirty, he had a son named Nahor. Serug had more children and died at the age of two hundred thirty.

When Nahor was twenty-nine, he had a son named Terah. Nahor had more children and died at the age of one hundred forty-eight.

Discuss.

Mark Fiore: Smokey the Climate Scientist.

Mental Floss: Does ginger ale really help with stomach aches?

The 2016 Clown Show:

• This is The Republican Party
• Young Turks: Trump is in denial about his standing with Latinos.
• Ann Telnaes: President Trump…Twitter troll-in-chief.
• Jonathan Mann: Trump mocks Asian negotiators (remix):

• Sam Seder: Trump is now openly mocking Asians
• Donald Trump says “China” (234 times).
• David Pakman: White Supremacists flock to Donald Trump
• Farron Cousins: Donald Trump may put the final nail in the G.O.P. coffin
• David Pakman: Former KKK Grand Wizard and G.O.P. Congressman David Duke supports Trump
• Young Turks: Trump kicks Jorge Ramos out of press conference
• David Pakman: Donald Trump kicks Jorge Ramos out of press conference
• Donald Trump:“Positive influence?!?”
• Maddow: Trump’s racial comments causing GOP approval ratings to crash
• Young Turks: After Trump expels Jorge Ramos, Trump supporter tells Ramos to “Get out of my country!”
• David Pakman: Trump supporter tells Hispanic-American reporter to “get out of MY country”
• Kimmel: Trump’s newest ad
• Sam: Trump vs. Luntz…the battle of the right-wing pinheads
• Trump live-tweets The Kelly File
• Trump’s big movie role.
• Thom: A corporatist peek behind Trump
• Is Donald Trump an evil wizard?
• David Pakman: Does Donald Trump put an end to Republican ‘family values’ nonsense?
• Sam Seder: Why Donald Trump is so dangerous
• Maddow: Trump vs. FAUX News! Godzilla vs. Mothra!
• Megyn Kelly Kicks the shit out of Donald Trump. Makes him bleed from…wherever
• Young Turks: Trump v. FAUX News, Round 2
• Chris Hayes: Trump stumped by Bible question
• David Pakman: Trump’s brilliant answer to Bible verse question
• PsychoSuperMom: Trump’s the monster the G.O.P. created.
• Can Trump win without Latinos?
• Young Turks: Sarah Palin will interview The Donald
• Maddow: The Paul family scandal you don’t know about:

• Farron Cousins: Jeb gets desperate, and turns to his brother for fundraising.
• Jeb! and The Donald scuffle over “anchor babies”
• Sam Seder: Jeb Bush…When I say anchor babies, I mean Asians!
• Farron Cousins: Jeb Bush apparently hates Hispanics AND Asians
• Sam Seder: To stop “evildoers,” Jeb Bush wants to spy on more Americans
• Farron Cousins: Jeb Bush made millions by bankrupting Florida’s pension funds
• White House on Sen. Cruz’s & Trump’s pro-war rally
• Ann Telnaes: Ted Cruz courts evangelicals.
• Young Turks: Ted Cruz wants to deport millions, just please don’t talk about it
• Young Turks: Lil’ Bobby Jindal new 2016 strategy…copy Trump
• Sam Seder: Lindsey Graham, in a desperate attempt for relevancy, threatens to “Beat Trump’s brains out.”

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about cancer.

Young Turks: Terrorist attempts to bomb abortion clinic.

Gunzzzz:

• Young Turks: Emotional plea for gun control from father of VA shooting victim
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Father of VA shooting victim calls for gun laws
• Thom: Time to start treating guns like abortions.
• American gun violence versus the World
• Young Turks: Science says…more guns, more gun deaths
• David Pakman: So far….U.S. averaging one mass shooting per day in 2015.
• Farron Cousins: Gun violence in America is out of control. Is the 2nd Amendment outdated?
• Young Turks: Mark Hamill’s gun tweet enrages conservatives

Mental Floss: 31 amazing facts about household items.

Bill Maher with some New Rules.

White House: West Wing Week.

New Orleans, Ten Years after Katrina:

• 10 years later: Has New Orleans been rebult…or just gentrified?
• Hurricane Katrina relived through media clips
• Maddow: The 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina (with a cameo by Heck-of-a-job-Brownie):

• George W. Bush back in New Orleans after 10 years.

Sam Seder: FAUX News, “It’s hard out there for white people”.

Congressional hits and misses: Best of Ted Cruz.

Eric Schwartz: Fuck You:

Nuclear Football:

• A real nuclear physicist explains the Iran deal.
• Is Sen. Wyden (D-OR) on the path to war?

Slate: What is sex like in space?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Three tourists from Rhode Island were beaten, burned and robbed outside the 3rd Avenue transit tunnel entrance on Monday night. Why am I not surprised?

The 3rd and Pike area is so terrible that it has it’s own Twitter feed. On most days the tunnel entrance and sidewalk outside are full of drug dealers and thugs who fuck with people coming in and out of the tunnel. I stopped using that tunnel entrance and now use the one across the street next to Macy’s because of this reason. The King County Sheriff department seems to be less interested in providing security and more interested in getting themselves fired. The city and SPD have tried with the 9 1/2 block strategy to reform the area, and it has had some success, apparently not as much as could have been hoped for.

My favorite part (if you want to call it that) of the incident is this:

Police arrived at the scene, but the group of suspects had fled. However, officers did arrest one man at the scene after he interfered with medics’ efforts to treat the victims, and told the victims they “deserved’ to be beaten and robbed. Police are investigating whether the man was also involved in the robbery.

If you have anything to share regarding the crime, you can contact the SPD Robbery Unit at (206) 684-5535.

– Huzzah. It’s raining. Remember, people forget to drive in the rain every summer in Western Washington, and I’m sure this year will be worse than normal.

– A homeless woman was beaten to death so can we all just get on board with encampments now?

– The Seattle Times Editorial Board Can Go Phở Itself

– I think Donald Trump could check out the HA Bible Study if he wants to find a new favorite verse.

– The real place voting and civic engagement matters is in local politics. And how would anyone know to care about those? TV news doesn’t cover it – they’re busy chasing fires and car crashes. Even if someone happens to read a newspaper, they have a fraction of the local reporters or coverage they once did. Most schools certainly don’t teach civic engagement or explain why it might be fun or interesting, let alone effective. Unless you and your friends happen to be affected by an issue, local politics won’t be on your radar. Ever.

– My worst nightmare would be being Tim Eyman.

Rand Paul came to town recently. He said some nonsense about guns:

It was a terrible morning to glorify guns. At the exact same time that everyone on the internet was horrified by the latest in a seemingly unending string of mass shootings, Paul’s adulation of the 2nd amendment felt awkward and dripping with an unpleasant machismo. ( “If you doubt me on the 2nd Amendment, come into my house unannounced,” Paul warned as the room applauded the thought of Paul shooting another person to death.) Before Paul took the stage, local politician Elizabeth Scott was proudly introduced as a member of the NRA. Meanwhile, on Twitter, people were scrolling past auto-play videos filmed by a man as he murdered two innocent people in cold blood. For a candidate who repeatedly claims to be uniquely in touch with reality, Paul is surprisingly out-of-step with an America that overwhelmingly favors commonsense gun safety laws.

When I talk about gun control with my pro gun friends, I’ll almost always hear someone talk about responsible gun ownership. But this sort of braggadocio is alarmingly common. Oh, give me the chance to kill the fuck out of someone who comes to my house unannounced. That’s not a death penalty offense, but I’m so excited about it I’m going to share this fantasy that to a decent person would be one of the worst days of their life with several hundred supporters.

It’s something decent people aren’t fantasizing about. It isn’t something the sort of people who feel responsible would say. And if people wanted hold him responsible, they could boo instead of applaud.

Now sure, I realize that one candidate from one party who isn’t doing very well in the polls isn’t indicative of the whole of gun owners. But this sort of thing rarely, if ever, gets called out from the people who tell me they’re the responsible sort. Hell, a dickbag can wrap bacon around his gun, get what type of gun it is wrong, and nobody who claims to be all about responsible gun ownership is like “Um, noppers buddy. That’s not how ya’ do it.”

So you know, step the fuck up. Or people like me — that rare breed who do actually want to take your gun away — are going to keep being the ones to call it out.

Literally:

Hirabayashi Place will be a mixed use, transit oriented, workforce housing development that includes 96 apartments and a childcare center. Units will be studio, 1-bedroom, and 2-bedroom apartments affordable for households with incomes at or below 40%, 50%, and 60% of Area Mean Income.

Please visit the rental website for an application for the housing lottery. The application has two parts and must be received by September 15, 2015.

(Emphasis mine)

There is such a huge demand for these kind of buildings. The non-profits who develop these projects (InterIm CDA, Bellwether Housing, Capitol Hill Housing are three such developers) open maybe one new affordable building a year. Their collective efforts are appreciated, but they suffer from a lack of resources and muscle and can’t compete with for-profit developers. Either the government has to get involved to even the odds or we’re going to have to give up the pretension that we care about this issue in the first place.

I decided to hold off on this post mostly due to laziness, but also because writing it while the stock market was going down in the last week or so might seem a bit justifying Obama or whatever. But now today that the Dow went up 619.07 mostly meaningless to me points, the post stands on it’s own. And that is why the fuck were people claiming a week’s worth of bad stock market news was some how reflective of Obama’s handling of the economy, of some sort of shade of capitalism more generally, or of stories about panic!!!!!!! throughout the land?

The truth is that Obama is handling the economy fine, and on the granular level doesn’t have much to do one way or the other with the stock market going down in a given day or week, or week and change. Capitalism will have its ups and downs but it’s here for a long time. And stories about panic!!!!!!!!!!!!!! are pretty boring absent actual panic.

Of course, people’s retirement accounts are often tied up with the market. I know mine are. But I’m not retiring for several decades. So unless you’re planning on retiring this month, these fluctuations will probably be something you’ll be able to ride out. While it was bad for some people, for the majority, it wasn’t anything unless you panic.

Maybe the issue is that the Dow — or the market more generally — is the only snapshot of the economy we have. However flawed it is, it’s something to say what the economy did today. Or this week. Or whatever short amount of time. But maybe we don’t need that. Maybe we don’t have a good measure of the economy in such short bursts because that’s not a good way to think of the economy.

– I’m surprised it took Senator Murray that long to support the Iran deal. Still, good for her for being on the right side of this.

– Yes, 50 women are difficult to disbelieve. But one should be just as difficult to disbelieve, especially when we understand the enormous disincentives that any woman faces in reporting and how many rapes go unreported for just that reason.

– This oil train forum in Olympia looks like it might be interesting.

– But the most disappointing aspect of the new lane is its abrupt end. SDOT and Seattle Public Schools (“SPS”) failed to come to an agreement to extend the bike lane at least to Harrison Street, with direct access to Seattle Center.

– I generally don’t think of myself as being a big fan of 80’s music (not a genre, but whatever), but I’ve been enjoying 80’s day on KEXP so far.

– Despite agreeing with everything in this cartoon, it seems to me the best reason to oppose treating prisoners poorly isn’t recidivism, but because it’s bad on its own.

It looks like Bertha’s cut cut bits are getting back underground.

Welp, another recovery goal has been met for the broke-down, downtown tunnel boring machine: Bertha’s repaired front end is now reuniting with the rest of its body. Seattle Tunnel Partners (STP), the state’s contractor, started lowering Bertha’s 2,000-ton cutterhead and drive unit into the rescue pit this afternoon—a complex positioning job that will wrap up tomorrow.

Once Bertha’s new facial transplant makes its way into the pit, STP will begin reconnecting all of the machine’s parts and test the monster for two months. These tests consist of a “no load” (read: no soil and water) exam and another exam that will measure how the machine’s cutterhead spins into earth.

It won’t be until November that they finish all the tests, and start it up properly. Now the project is scheduled to finish in early 2018. We’ll see.

Honestly, I was as as opposed to the project as anyone, but we had a vote, and that matters. So as long as the state or the contractor — who whoever that isn’t Seattle really — is paying for it, I wish the project the best. Also, please finish before there’s a major earthquake.

Please join us tonight for an evening of political pontification over a pint. An evening of electoral erudition over an elixer! An evening of conservative contraindication over a cocktail!! It’s this week’s edition of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some folks stop by even earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter also meets. On Wednesday, the Burien chapter meets. The Spokane and Woodinville chapters meet on Thursday.

There are 183 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

– Maybe we shouldn’t reward Chuck Schumer for being so wrong on Iran by making him the next Democratic leader.

– Seriously, birthright citizenship is the best, and anyone opposing it is the worst. QED.

– The seawall project is over budget.

– The Breitbart people should be ashamed of themselves. Part something in an infinity series.

– And the fact that millions of “pro-life” American Christians have just shown us, yet again, that they prefer this monstrous fantasy to reality — that they cannot tolerate daily life a world that doesn’t include cannibalism and Satanic baby-killers killing babies for Satan.

Revelation 18:8-10
Therefore shall her plagues come in one day, death, and mourning, and famine; and she shall be utterly burned with fire: for strong is the Lord God who judgeth her. And the kings of the earth, who have committed fornication and lived deliciously with her, shall bewail her, and lament for her, when they shall see the smoke of her burning, standing afar off for the fear of her torment, saying, Alas, alas that great city Babylon, that mighty city! for in one hour is thy judgment come.

Discuss.