HorsesAss.Org

Clinton	Trump
78.9% probability of winning	21.1% probability of winning
Mean of 288 electoral votes	Mean of 250 electoral votes

Last week’s analysis had Sec. Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 309 EVs to 229 EV, and gave Clinton a 96.2% chance of winning an election held then.

About 25 new polls have been released since then, and Trump has made further gains. Now, a Monte Carlo analysis of head-to-head polls gives Clinton 78,889 wins and Trump 21,111 wins (including the 2,468 ties) out of 100,000 simulated elections. Clinton received (on average) 288 to Trump’s 250 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 78.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a 21.1% probability of winning.

Here are a few notes for individual states.

There isn’t a lot of good news for Clinton, but in Arizona, an old Trump+5% poll aged out, leaving a series of much closer polls. Consequently, Trump’s probability of winning the state has dropped from 92.5% to only 80.5%.

Something similar has happened in Florida. A clear outlier poll with Clinton up +14% has aged out, and we have two new polls. The tally has Clinton leading 3 and Trump leading 3 with one tie. The net result is that we went from Clinton with a 82% probability of taking the state last week to a 59% chance of Trump taking the state this week. Florida is a toss-up.

In Maine a new SurveyUSA poll gives us verification that Maine’s 2nd CD is strongly for Trump, while the 1st CD is strongly for Clinton. The CDs would split in an election held now. Overall, however, Clinton would take the state.

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Minnesota has Clinton at +6% over Trump. Still, the small size of the poll means that Clinton’s chances are pegged at 88%. The longer polling history suggests Clinton would easily take the state.

Nevada has flipped. We have five current polls, and Trump has small leads in the last four polls. Last week we gave Clinton a 63% chance of winning Nevada. Now Trump has a 68% chance. Clearly, Nevada is a swing state.

North Carolina has flipped as well. Clinton had a tenuous lead last week, with a 58% chance of taking the state. With three new polls that all go to Trump, the GOP nominee now has a 69% chance of winning the state.

Ohio has strengthened for Trump on account of a new Trump+5% poll. Trump has led in the past 5 polls, raising his chances from 78% last week to 90% this week.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 22 Sep 2015 to 22 Sep 2016, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Trump is now in his strongest position of the entire election cycle, even though his chances of winning are about 1 in 5. This change reflects what we have seen in the national polls a week or two ago. Since these analyses rely on state polls, there is a lag as new polls come in and old polls drop out. The next week will be interesting to see if and where Trump “maxes out”, as Clinton seems to be recovering from her bad streak of national polls.

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

Secure Scheduling. Seattle has secure scheduling. Just like with sick leave/safe leave and with various state and local minimum wage initiatives, the business community are having a sad. But just like those things, it’ll be a bit better than it was before for working folks.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for an evening of conversation and political debate (preparation) over drinks.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight, the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. Finally, next Monday, the Shoreline chapter meets.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Somehow I missed that Park(ing) Day just happened. It looks like many of the locations were pretty fun. And somehow cars still exist. The war on cars is going pretty poorly.

Song of Solomon 4:5-6
Your breasts are perfect;
they are twin deer
feeding among lilies.
I will hasten to those hills
sprinkled with sweet perfume
and stay there till sunrise.

Discuss.

Stephen with a polite reminder about polls.

Samantha Bee: “Asking” the “tough” questions: Part I and Part II.

Thom: Why won’t the media push back on liar think tanks & experts.

Jim Earl: An obituary for televangelist Jan Crouch.

The 2016 Sexist, Racist Clown Show:

• Sam Seder: Mike Pence refuses to distance himself from David Duke.
• David Pakman: The truth about Donald Drumpf.
• Seth Meyers with Lewis Black on Drumpf and election coverage
• PsychoSuperMom: Other People’s Money
• Sen. Reid: Drumpf is “a liar.”
• Olbermann:
  

  The fraudulent Trump has to have somebody ELSE say POTUS was born here. The fish is deplorable from the head. Vol.3: pic.twitter.com/6RvZerkfAh

  — Keith Olbermann (@KeithOlbermann) September 16, 2016

• Rating Drumpf and Clinton on honesty
• Farron Cousins: Drumpf supporter punches elderly woman in the face.
• Sam Seder: “Daddy, daddy, we have to do this”, or how Drumpf says he developed his family leave plan
• Kimmel: Drunk Drumpf on inner cities
• Sam Seder: Obama eviscerates Drumpf in Philly.
• David Pakman: Drumpf campaign staffers quit because they aren’t getting paid.
• Young Turks: Drumpf drops Birferism.
• Stephen: The Drumpf foundation needs your help.
• The most racist person.
• Joy Reid on Drumpf’s Birfer surrender.
• Mark Fiore: Deplorables.
• Farron Cousins: Drumpf Jr. says Sr. can release tax records because people would scrutinize them.
• Young Turks: Dr. Oz show edits out awkward Drumpf comment about kissing Ivanka
• Maddow: White supremacists praise Drumpf as Hillary calls out “deplorables.”
• Sam Seder: Trump In Flint was forced by Pastor to stop political speech in her church, repeatedly
• Sam Seder: Next day, Drumpf trash-talks same Pastor.
• David Packman: Colin Powell says Drumpf is a “national disgrace”.
• Stephen: Dr. Oz asks Donald Drumpf to diagnose himself
• Drumpf’s pay to play
• Jimmy Kimmel: Drunk Drumpf on Hillary’s phones.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf surrenders, “Obama is OFFICIALLY an American and Hillary started birtherism”
• Thom: Electing Drumpf to fix corruption is like smoking to cure cancer
• Drumpf’s Press Secretary: Will Drumpf bomb mars?
• Young Turks: Why Drumpf can’t become President
• Trevor: Deplorables between the scenes
• Colbert: What do Donald Drumpf’s medical records really say?
• Young Turks: #LoserDonald Jr. makes holocaust joke.
• Samantha Bee with This Week in WTF: Latinos for Trump?
• Young Turks: Angry Ivanka walks out of Cosmo interview
• Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at the Drumpf Foundation
• David Pakman: NY investigates Drumpf Foundation
• Farron Cousins: Yes 1/2 of Drumpf supporters are deplorable.
• Sam Seder: Megyn Kelly shuts down Katrina Pierson

Stephen with some North Korean leader nukes sarcasm.

Susie Sampson chats with a (rather deplorable) White Supremacist.

James Corden: Political monologue.

Seth Meyers: Dammit! Wells Fargo.

Samantha Bee: Outfoxed by FOX.

Thom: A post-factual world.

Hillary

• Stephen: Rough week for Hillary
• Seth Meyers with Hey! Hillary and the basket of deplorables.
• Matthew Filipowicz: Outrage over Hillary Clinton’s comments:

• Seth Meyers with Bernie Sanders: The case for Hillary
• James Corden: Hillary has a basket of issues.
• Jimmy Kimmel: Drunk Hillary Clinton
• Trevor: Hillary Clinton’s bad week

from

• Clinton campaign Drumpf doesn’t see Obama as American.
• Stephen: The Lunghazi scandal rages, a healthy cartoon Hillary speaks out
• Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at Hillary Clinton and the Basket of Deplorables

Daily Show with outrage court: Patriotism vs. Protest

White House: West Wing Week.

Seth Meyers: Don’t forget to vote!

Conan with a political monologue.

Jimmy Kimmel: Drunk Rudy Giuliani.

Colbert does Trevor Noah Part I and Part II.

Thom: How Higher Education is being folded into the Libertarian movement.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Trump
96.2% probability of winning	3.8% probability of winning
Mean of 309 electoral votes	Mean of 229 electoral votes

I’m buried this week, so this report will be brief. Let me first mention that I usually send out Tweets from @hominidviews with each poll I add to the database, and include a graph of the recent polling for the state. I also announce new analyses there, and sometimes offer quick previews when I don’t have time to do a full analysis. So follow me at @hominidviews for these updates.

Last week Donald Trump had made small gains over Sec. Hillary Clinton. Plenty of new polls have come—about 35—and many of these polls were conducted during at least part of Clinton’s “bad week.” Not surprisingly, Trump makes gains.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 96,242 times and Trump wins 3,758 times (including the 702 ties). The previous analysis had Clinton winning almost 100% of the simulated elections. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 96.2% probability of winning and Trump would have a 3.8% probability of winning.

Clinton received (on average) 309 to Trump’s 229 electoral votes. This is substantially down from the 340 Clinton had last week, but still above the 270 threshold needed to win.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

A) Yay! B) I’m not sure how temporary putting the bunker on hold is. Hopefully it won’t be back, as is or slightly modified, in a few months. C) Holy shit, great job activist community. D) Even as Murray was doing the right thing his statement was pretty shitty. Blaming McGinn and environmentalists for the cost. What?

I don’t know exactly the details of “try” to solve homelessness crisis in Seattle. But the main thing is to build more housing. A lot more. Public and private sectors. It probably means better zoning and better incentives to not just build luxury housing.

It isn’t punishing people for being homeless, especially when they don’t have other options. Best case, that means they leave the jungle and go somewhere else. Maybe a sanctioned place, maybe some other unsanctioned place, maybe another city or the suburbs.

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
11.8% probability of a majority	88.2% probability of a majority
Mean of 49 seats	Mean of 51 seats

An analysis of state head-to-head polls in Senate races suggests that Republicans would most likely control the Senate if the election was to be held today. Democrats have made small improvements since my previous analysis in July.

After 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 1239 times, there were 10566 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 88195 times. Democrats have a 11.8% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 88.2% probability of controlling the Senate. This is only up slightly from the previous analysis. Where Democrats have gained is in the number of expected seats, going from 48.2 (on average) to 48.5. The median number of seats remains at 48.

A few states warrant comment.

The Arizona race has gone in Sen. John McCain’s (R) favor. He was at a 76% chance in July; now he is nearly at 100%. That said, the polling show great variability, so Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick may not be down for the count just yet.

Nothing has changed in Illinois, in the seat held by Republican Mark Kirk. Democrat Tammy Duckworth only has a 38% chance of winning, but the polling is old and (possibly an outlier). Illinois may well be a pick-up, but we don’t have good, recent polling to say so.

Last July, U.S. Representative Baron Hill (D) withdrew from the Indiana Senate race to make room for former U.S. Senator Evan Bayh (D). That changed the nature of the race. The state is now widely considered a Democratic pick-up.

Missouri was nearly a toss-up in July. Now it is solid for Republican Roy Blunt. Democrat Jason Kander only wins 22 the 100,000 simulated elections.

In Nevada, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto was leading Republican Joe Heck with a 67% probability of winning in July. Alas, the polling since then has favored Heck, and the Republican now has a 91% of winning an election now. Still, most of the polls are extremely close.

New Hampshire’s incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte has been in the fight for her life against Democrat Maggie Hassan. In July, the race was tied up. And, the fact is, Hassan leads in most polls. But one strong recent poll gives Ayotte the edge with a 78% probability of winning right now.

In Ohio, Democrat Ted Strickland has been slowly losing ground to incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R). The graph says it all:

Pennsylvania was red in the previous analysis. But Sen. Pat Toomey (R) has been slipping to Democrat Katie McGinty, and the Democrat now has an 87% chance of winning now.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

[Read more…]

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening over the next week. Tonight, the Federal Way, Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. On Thursday, the Tacoma, Bremerton, and Spokane chapters meet. And on Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

As a white person, far be it from me to tell the majority Black Seahawks that they’re protesting police brutality wrong, especially when they’re at work. Still, I think if you thought it hit the right cord or if you thought it was a bit too all-lives-matter, we can all agree fuck the mayor of DuPont. What an asshole. I hope he draws strong opposition next time he’s up.

Exodus 32:27-29
Then he said to them, “This is what the LORD, the God of Israel, says: ‘Each man strap a sword to his side. Go back and forth through the camp from one end to the other, each killing his brother and friend and neighbor.’” The Levites did as Moses commanded, and that day about three thousand of the people died. Then Moses said, “You have been set apart to the LORD today, for you were against your own sons and brothers, and he has blessed you this day.”

Discuss.

Seth Meyers: Political things that actually happened.

Jimmy Dore: FAUX News media critic doesn’t understand they are GOP propaganda outlet.

Mental Floss: 26 facts about magic tricks.

Stephen: Obama’s weekend of insults.

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

How to talk to a woman who suffers from headphones in ears.

The 2016 Alt-Right Clown Show:

• Mark Fiore: Turning a corner
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at the candidate’s scandals
• Sam Seder: Pam Bondi denies she was bought by Drumpf
• Maddow: Donald Drumpf campaign elevates the absurd
• Roy Zimmerman: T-Rump:
  https://youtu.be/Xwu-hagvVLE
• Roy Zimmerman is looking for more verses.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf and body language.
• MSNBC: Drumpf’s Iraq War lie and Esquire Editor clarifies interview
• Drumpf openly bragging about Pay-to-Play.
• Daily Show: Donald Drumpf courts the Black vote.
• Clinton on Drumpf appearing on RT
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at the Candidates (mostly Drumpf) on national security.
• Stephen: Does This Drumpf-shaped cloud predict a Republican win in November?
• Maddow: An echo of history Drumpf won’t want to hear
• Ann Telnaes: Drumpf pays to play.
• Maddow: Drumpf brings chaos to usually staid briefings
• Kimmel: Drunk Drumpf.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf’s secret plan to stabalize the Middle East
• Seth Meyers takes a closer look at Drumpf’s minority outreach.
• Maddow: No, Vladimir Putin did not call Drumpf ‘brilliant’
• Roy Zimmerman is looking for new verses (of his T-RUMP song)
• Young Turks: Trump loves Putin:

• Stephen: The Drumpf campaign goes off script.
• Maddow: Scrutinizing Drumpf’s plans for new Generals

Stephen with Captain Sully.

Mental Floss: Why do traffic jams occur?

Bill Maher: Future headlines.

Young Turks: Kaepernick National Anthem protest continues to grow.

Jim Earl: Obituary for conservative legend Phyllis Schlafly.

James Corden: Where is Dr. Ben Carson’s luggage?

What are think tanks?

Colbert’s one year anniversary remembered roasts.

Sam Seder plays Tim Heidecker’s “I Am a Cuck”

Hillary Makes History:

• Andrea Mitchell: Life-long Republican former George W. Bush adviser endorses Clinton
• MSNBC: WaPo editorial says too much is being made of Clinton’s emails.
• Young Turks: Rince Priebus thinks Hillary doesn’t smile enough.
• Sam Seder: Newt Gingrich has a coughing fit while talking about Clinton’s coughing fit.
• Clinton on “not smiling enough”.

Slate: Everything you need to know about espresso.

PsychoSuperMom: Then You’re A Feminist.

Stephen on the forum and Matt Lauer.

Young Turks: Worst ad of 2016.

Seth Meyers and Michelle Obama give college freshman advice.

Trevor: Zika!

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I’m both inspired and a little pissed off about Bob Ferguson supporting an assault weapons ban. On the one hand, it’s well past time, and I hope his push for this adds to the call. I suppose it’s possible to get something passed depending on the makeup of the next legislature.

On the other hand, it’s a relatively small amount of the gun deaths. And we’re going to need a lot more wholesale change than nibbling around the edges.