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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottleBallots have dropped, and Donald Drumpf Shit-Show is happening right now. So please join us tonight for an evening of political critique and conversation at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.





Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight, the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. And on Thursday, the Tacoma, Bremerton, and Spokane chapters meet.

There are 179 chapters of Living Liberally, including nineteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Open Thread: July 20

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I got my ballot. I’m still not sure who I’m voting for to replace McDermott. It’s between Walkinshaw and Jayapal for me, but any of the 3 major Dems would be pretty good. You can’t really vote for any of those three would be fine on your ballot though.

Also, there are too many executive positions. Please eliminate 3. I am not a crackpot.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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What is populism?

Stephen: Former Daily Show correspondents dish on Jon Stewart.

Gun and Violins:

Jimmy Dore:Shrub clowns around during police memorial.

Dem Unity?

Sen. Tim Scott discusses racial profiling.

Thom: G.O.P. focuses on heat of porn instead of climate change.

Sam Seder: George W. Bush crazily dances during Dallas memorial service.

Jimmy Dore chats with Bill O’Reilly about FAUX sexual harassment.

Drumpfest 2016:

Sam Seder: Newt Gingrich calls for demented anti-Muslim policies on FAUX News to catch Trump’s attention.

White House: West Wing Week.

Mental Floss: 25 nerd facts.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottlePlease join us tonight for an evening of political conversation at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Call this one a briefing for the forthcoming GOP Reality TV Show Convention.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.



Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening over the next week. Tonight, the Federal Way, Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. Finally, on Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 178 chapters of Living Liberally, including nineteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Open Thread 7-11

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After the John T. Williams shooting, I argued that we need to make the default for Seattle cops that they don’t carry weapons. It could be done similarly to how the UK does it. And if they need guns for specific things, they could have a procedure to get them. But the default should be no guns. I still think that’s correct, and I want to highlight this piece that makes the case nationally. Like Fred, I have no idea how we get from here to there.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Awkward Exes: A forth-of-July story.

Should women be drafted?

Being Murdered in America:

Ann Telnaes: Issues that motivate the G.O.P. controlled congress to act.

FAUX Sexuality:

Money for corrupt Senators.

Bill Maher: Two Reps. forward.

Jimmy Dore: Political jokes of the week.

Mental Floss: Forth of July facts

The 2016 G.O.P. Drumpf Enterprises Clown Show:

Mark Fiore: Journey to Planet Jupitearth.

White House: West Wing Week.

Farron Cousins with Howard Nations: Koch shadow network is funding dangerous candidates all over the country.

Sam Seder: SCOTUS decision dump.

Jimmy Dore: Report find that Tony Blair schemed with Bush to invade Iraq.

Hillary Makes History:

Minute Physics: Explaining gravitational waves.

Young Turks: Bizarre Wingnut conspiracy theory about UN vehicles:

Here’s why the U.S. education system is broken.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: Clinton has a solid lead over Trump

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Clinton
Trump
100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 354 electoral votes
Mean of 184 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

It has been some time since I’ve done a general election match-up using state head-to-head polls. Way back last October Hillary Clinton held a good lead over Donald Trump and would have defeated Trump with 96.6% probability. But these results were from back in the days when we had few polls matching up Trump and Clinton. We have many more now.

From a analysis of state polls through yesterday, and after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton takes 100,000 wins. On average, Clinton received 354 to Trump’s 184 electoral votes. In other words, if the election was held now, Clinton would certainly win, and likely in a landslide.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

The electoral map for Trump is grim. He loses almost all the swing states: Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Iowa. On top of that, he loses Kansas, New Mexico, Arizona, and Kentucky!

The Arizona and Kansas results may be an artifact of one large outlier poll in each state. New Mexico and Kentucky are both based on single PPP polls. Still, Trump can take these four states and still loses handily.

One interesting finding is that Maine splits its districts, although the state goes for Clinton overall.

Today, Donald Trump met with G.O.P. lawmakers, telling them he would put Oregon, Washington, Connecticut and Michigan “in play.” But apparently not. Aside from turning Nevada from blue to red, and one CD in Maine from blue to red, Trump isn’t putting purple states in play at this point. It seems unlikely that solid blue states like Oregon, Washington and Connecticut are going to turn red.

[Read more…]

Lyin’ Eyman has more legal troubles

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Remember way back in the early aughts when, Tim Eyman, tearfully confessed to being a liar in the “…biggest lie of my life”?

“I was in lie mode,” he said. “I became riddled with guilt. It was the biggest lie of my life and it was over the stupidest thing in the world. The biggest thing I’m guiltiest of is an enormous ego. Hubris.”
[…]

Eyman emphasized that he had done nothing illegal.
“This is all fricking legal …but beyond stupid,” he said.

No…”stupid” isn’t the right word…it was another LIE. At least, the Washington state AG thought so. Eyman was prosecuted and settled, paying a $50,000 fine and was permanently enjoined from acting as a political committee treasurer.

Ten years later, Lyin’ Eyman was at it again:

PDC investigators say the expenses that were reported as paying for signatures, but in fact were payments to Eyman violate state disclosure laws. Payments to him violate laws against personal use, they added.

The multiple violations are so serious the commission can’t levy adequate penalties, and the commission should send the matter to the attorney general’s office to take the case to court, they said.

And today we learn that there are many more violations of campaign finance and disclosure laws:

The latest complaint deals with an Eyman-sponsored political action committee (PAC) — “Bring Back our $30 Car Tabs — Voters Want More Choices” that sponsored and aired 21 online videos that opposed 49 candidates for the Washington State Legislature.

The ads cost $45,318 and were apparently financed by $22,500 contributions from two wealthy supporters: Vancouver, Washington, developer Clyde Holland and Camas Investment CEO Kenneth Fisher.

According to a report by the Public Disclosure Commission, 10 of the 21 videos meet the statutory definition of “independent expenditures” under state law.

The state requires footprints on so-called “independent expenditure” ads, which often fill TV screens before election day with messages that are unremittingly nasty. By off-loading negative advertising on “independent” groups, candidates can make themselves appear to be running upbeat races.

According to the PDC, the 10 Eyman-sponsored videos did not include the disclaimer: “No candidate authorized this ad.” The videos did not identify a sponsor’s name, city or state. The videos incorrectly listed the required five leading contributors to the videos.

“Bring Back Our $30 Car Tabs — VWMC,” in its filing with the state, listed as its sole purpose support for a ballot initiative — not attacking legislators. (The initiative was subsequently scrubbed.) The Eyman PAC did not file an amended form to update its purpose to attack legislators.

The PDC is throwing the disclosure rule book at Eyman.

Tim “Lyin'” Eyman has spent more than a decade personally profiting by embezzling funds intended for initiatives and flaunting Washington’s finance and disclosure laws. Isn’t it about time he be taken off the street or at least out of the political arena?

I think a long stint behind bars will offer him new appreciation for the necessity of taxes….

Open Thread July 6

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I love reading about the progress of the Angel Lake Station. It’s both that light rail is inching further along, and that I’m excited to go wander around Angel Lake. When I have a free weekend day, I love just hopping on the rail, getting to a station, and wandering around, aimlessly. I can, and do, do that with buses, but it’s not the same.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottleThe Independence Day holiday is over, and it is time to get back to work. The first order of business? A visit to the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally to scratch that political itch.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Long Beach, and West Seattle chapters also meet. The Lakewood and Bellingham chapters meet on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.

There are 178 chapters of Living Liberally, including nineteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

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