Daily Show: R.I.P. Facts.

David Pakman: The truth about the alt-right.

Young Turks: The Emails Mike Pence doesn’t want you to see.

Adam ruins everything: The Shocking Way Private Prisons Make Money:

Common Ground: The game we can all agree on.

Jonathan Mann: Fight These Fucking Nazis Right Now.

The Serial Philanderer, Con Man, Putinophile, President Elect:

• Stephen: Drumpf vs. ‘Hamilton’ inspires a hip hop musical spin-off
• Jimmy Dore: Drunk Reince Priebus questions Steve Bannon
• David Pakman: Possible Drumpf Security Secretary accidentally reveals Homeland Security docs. DOH!
• Olbermann: This is what happens when you criticize Donald Drumpf.
• Young Turks: Practical things we can do while Drumpf is President
• Farron Cousins: Democrats must constantly attack, you don’t play nice with a bully
• Thom: Drumpf’s secret weapon and conflict of interest.
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at Donald Drumpf’s cabinet and conflicts of interest
• David Pakman: Donald Drumpf, who “Never settles,” settles Drumpf University scam case for $25 million
• Randy Rainbow: About Hamilton…Donald Drumpf, grow up!

• Mark Fiore: Drumpflink jobs network
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at Drumpf’s “Hamilton” feud distracts from conflicts of interest
• Michael Brooks: Neo-Nazis celebrate Drumpf’s win in DC’s Ronald Reagan Building, cheer “Hail Drumpf!”
• David Pakman: Drumpf against net neutrality despite not having a clue about what it is.
• Jimmy Dore: Drunk RNC Chair talks Drumpf’s kids on Jimmy’s voice mail.
• Stephen: The Drumpf train is already off the rails.
• Young Turks: Drumpf accuses Hamilton Cast of harassing Mike Pence.
• Thom: How Republicans plan to stop Medicare.
• Olbermann: The surprisingly easy way to get rid of Donald Drumpf
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at Drumpf’s foreign business ties
• Young Turks: Drumpf could be violating the Constitution on day 1, says former Bush WH lawyer
• David Pakman: Drumpf lies again, claims to have stopped Ford from moving plant to Mexico
• Jimmy Dore: Drunk Reince Priebus reacts to his new position in the White House

Farron Cousins: Glenn Beck attacks alt-right, forgetting he helped create it.

Trevor interviews Wesley Lowery, author of “They Can’t Kill Us All”.

Geologist’s nightmare.

Jonathan Mann: Recount!

PsychoSuperMom: I’m not a scientist:

Thom: How many Japanese sent to internment camps were US citizens?

Young Turks: Republican gerrymandering ruled unconstitutional

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

How to cook a Royal Thanksgiving turkey.

James Corden: Thanksgiving edition of Side Effects May Include.

Thanksgiving Classic: Sarah Palin’s Thanksgiving Massacre (with a side of word salad):

Stephen Colbert’s Turkey Tips, Part I.

Stephen Colbert’s Turkey Tips, Part II.

Late Night: What we are thankful for.

Turkeys try Thanksgiving food.

Obama pardoned the Turkey that killed my family. (Thanks, Obama!)

Late Show: How to draw a turkey by hand.

Congress talks turkey, turkey ham, and other food.

Daily Show: “U Name It” challenge for a stressful Thanksgiving:

James Corden: Friendsgiving—Thanksgiving with weed.

Stephen: The Late Show’s post-election Thanksgiving survival tips.

Please join us Tuesday for an evening of politics over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. This is the place to go for some post-election discussions of the future.

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern beginning about 8pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle? Check out one of the other 189 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Can California form its own country?

Alex meets the President.

Adam Conover: The sinister reason weed is illegal:

David Pakman: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Трамп by more than one million votes.

Sam Seder: Can Obama make a Supreme Court recess appointment?

The Sexual Predator, Путин Puppet, President Elect:

• Colbert: Трамп and Путин make their first joint appearance.
• Trevor: President-elect Трамп’s prospective cabinet of deplorables
• Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at Трамп’s promises and personnel
• Olbermann: Should we give Donald Трамп a chance?
• Randy Rainbow interviews Donald Трамп:

• Sam Seder: Warren debunks Трамп’s ‘drain the swamp’ claims.
• Young Turks: Трамп’s fraud will cost him $25M
• Samantha Bee: Sore winners.
• Trevor: How South Africa could prepare the U.S. for President Трамп
• Lawrence O’Donnell: George Takei on Трамп’s proposed Muslim registry.
• Sam Seder: Трамп Attorney General pick Sen. Jeff Sessions was too racist for a 1980s judgeship appointment.
• Young Turks: Трамп taps racist for top cop position
• Stephen: Путин gives Трамп a large wooden horse.
• Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at Трамп’s transition
• Trevor: Team Трамп’s proposes a Muslim registry
• Thom: Why Трамп’s Cabinet is a basket of deplorables
• Susie Sampson: 10 actions you can take to stop Трамп.
• Sam Seder & Cliff Schecter: Трамп appointees are as dangerous & alarming as possible
Maddow: DC Hotel exemplifies Donald Трамп’s business conflicts
• Colbert: Steve Bannon And Reince Priebus are The New Odd Couple
• Young Turks: Трамп family using Presidency to cash in.
• Samantha Bee: New cabinet installation Party I
• Samantha Bee: New cabinet installation Party II
• Jimmy Dore: Why Steve Bannon in the White House makes perfect sense
• Jon on the presidential election.
• Olbermann: No, this is not normal pre-Presidential behavior.
• Seth Meyers: A Closer look at Donald Трамп’s first moves as President-Elect
• Farron Cousins: Democrats should block everything Трамп attempts, like GOP did To Obama
• Trevor: Donald Трамп’s post-election compromises
• Chris Hayes: Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) on hates crimes since election, Donald Трамп’s Presidency
• Young Turks: Трамп adds Islamophobic General to his “Cabinet of Deplorables”
• Sam Seder: Трамп National Security Advisor Michael Flynn is pathologically fixated on “radical Islamic terror”
• Young Turks: Трамп’s horrible chief strategist.
• Conan: Some of Трамп’s cabinet picks.
• Mark Fiore: Secretary of Deplorables.
• Stephen: Трамп is Tweeting for to relieve the pressure.

David Pakman: NSA Chief, Russia hacked the 2016 election.

Mental Floss: 39 U.S. City Name origins.

Minute Physics: Is the moon held up by a spring? How perspective shapes reality.

David Packman: Racist assholes call Michelle Obama an “ape in heals”.:

Joe Biden: Building on a record of economic progress.

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

The election is over, and one thing is clear: we have a lot of work to do! Please join us Tuesday evening at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally for a post-election debriefing and discussions about the future.

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern beginning about 8pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle on Tuesday night? Check out one of the other 189 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Last Thursday, I was a guest on the Curmudgeon’s Corner podcast post-election edition. The host, Sam Minter, does his own polling aggregation site at ElectionGraphs.com. Along with co-host Iván Bou, we discuss the polling results from the election, our own final predictions and how they fared with other such sites for the first part of the podcast.

For the second part of the podcast, we explored the causes and consequences of the “greatest upset in electoral history,” and examine some possible responses to a single-party government.

Listen to the podcast here.

John Oliver: Multilevel Marketing.

Young Turks: So…George Zimmerman walks into a bar…

Samantha Bee: A beautiful, faraway dream.

VSauce: Is it okay to touch Mars?

White House: West Wing Week.

David Pakman: Marijuana wins in 5 more states.

Catastrofuck 2016. America Elects a Racist, Sexist, Groping, Philandering, Swindling Narcissist:

• Young Turks: What Трамп promised to do in first 100 days.
• Stephen tries to make sense of it all.
• James Corden: Post election monologue
• The making of Donald Трамп.
• Young Turks: Racists emboldened by Трамп victory
• Sam Seder: The role of voter suppression in the Трамп victory
• David Pakman: Anti-semitism is back, and it’s not going away in Трамп America
• Late Night: Amaber invites White people to join the fun
• Farron Cousins: Racists inspired by Трамп victory
• Colbert: President Трамп!
• One Latina’s Take: Grace Parra on the 2016 election results
• PsychoSuperMom: Looks like quit the wrong week to sniffing glue:

• Young Turks: Трамп’s team is already bragging about “enemys list”
• David Pakman: How the fuck did Donald Трамп win?
• Triumph The Insult Comic Dog explains Трамп’s win.
• Bill Maher: Lessons for Democrats
• Trevor: Election 2016 Wrap-up
• James Corden: Day 2
• Bill Maher: New Rule: We are all still here.
• Seth Meyers: Thoughts on the election.
• Maddow: Трамп threat best met with civic activism
• Obama’s post election statement.
• Newzoids: Трамп is President.
• Five ways Трамп will “Make America Great Again”
• Trevor: Трамп visits the White House
• Conan: Global Newspapers React To President Трамп
• Sam Seder: Трамп keeps an enemy list
• Stephen: Don’t move to Canada just yet.
• Samantha Bee: Something that actually exits…Путин policy shop
• Kimmel: Путин congratulates his puppet Трамп
• Chris Hayes: The wrong side of Трамп’s America
• Bill Maher and Friends: Трамп press and civil rights.
• Young Turks: Трамп’s cabinet will likely look like George W. Bush’s
• Maddow with Sen. Warren (MA): The election and fighting back.
• Anti-Drumpf protests break out spontaneously.
• Kimmel: Children speak out about Donald Трамп
• Conan: Election thoughts.
• Samantha Bee: The morning after.
• Young Turks: Why are people wearing safety pins?
• Randy Rainbow: Hillary Wins!:

• Olbermann: The terrorists have won.
• Young Turks: ALMOST everyone was wrong about the election.
• “I didn’t vote because…”
• Young Turks: Russia confirms that they were in regular communication with the Трамп campaign
• Stephen interviews Melania Трамп
• Harry Shearer: Трамп and Obama

Mental Floss: 28 facts about The Beatles.

Slate: The election in facial expressions.

Do Presidents get paid after leaving office?

Young Turks: GOP gloats about suppressing Black vote.

Bill Maher with Eric Holder: Abolish the electoral college.

Daily Show: Bringing America together again.

Get ready for an extra special supermoon.

Late Show: Choke it down.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Activities on the Intertubes for Veteran’s Day

Check out VoteVets.org.

How did the pollsters do for the 2016 election? That is a big and complicated question, because there are many different types and levels of polling done. In this post, I’ll look at the national polling in the Clinton—Trump race.

If my Twitter feed is any indication, the media seems hell-bent on the meme that “the polling was terrible” or “this is the end of polling.” But, as I show below, it wasn’t completely terrible for the national polling.

Yesterday, I heard a story on KUOW (I don’t remember the show, but perhaps All Things Considered or Here & Now) about the national polls. The story had things exactly wrong. They interviewed the director of the LA Times/USC poll (you know, the one that consistently had Trump leading Clinton), introducing it as “the one that got it right.” In fact, the LA Times/USC poll was the one that got it wrong.

Remember, national polls only tell us about the popular vote. And, as of this morning, Clinton leads in the popular vote. The LA Times/USC poll does use very interesting methods, asking their internet panel of respondents the probability of voting for each candidate. That is very cool (except for the internet panel part). But ultimately something about their poll led them to, almost uniquely, pick the wrong winner.

There are other criteria besides picking the right/wrong winner that are useful for evaluating the polls. A natural criterion is to ask which poll gets the percentages closest. That is what I have done. I’ve taken the national polling data as posted by Real Clear Politics and statistically evaluated “goodness of fit” between the poll result and the actual election outcome (as of this morning). The test I use is call a G-test of Goodness of Fit.

First I begin with the polls that did 2-way Clinton–Trump match-ups. Here are the polls from 31 Oct on, sorted newest to oldest (click for a larger image):

The “fit” of the poll is better for smaller numbers in the X^2 column, and the last column gives, essentially, the probability of observing deviations from the actual outcome at least this large given the sample size, assuming the poll was a true reflection of the outcome. I’ve highlighted the best fitting with darker colors (orange). The shades of yellow denote other polls that do not differ significantly. The worst fitting, those that differ significantly from the results, are shown in white.

The best polls are the four highlighted in orange, in order: The Gravis poll taken on 31 October, the FOX News poll taken from 1-3 Nov, IBD/TIPP Tracking poll taken 4-7 Nov, and the McClatchy poll taken 1-3 Nov. Odd that the three oldest polls are the closest.

The worst poll, by far, was the NBC News/Survey Monkey online tracking poll. This poll was way too optimistic for Clinton.

The LA Times/USC poll was middling. There is only a 6% probability of observing results this bad by chance. And, of course, the poll got the wrong winner.

But we see, using 4-way races, most of the national polls were, statistically, in the ball park. Ten of 14 weren’t had outcomes that were not statistically different from the actual election.

Here is the polling for the 4-way race. The extra two categories (Johnson and Stein) provides for more ways a poll can “deviate” from the observed election results, so the polls don’t fit as well overall. Many polls are heavily penalized for doing a lousy job in the Johnson or Stein percentages, even if the Trump and Clinton percentages are okay.

The best poll was by Gravis on 1-2 Nov. A later Gravis poll taken 3-6 Nov was actually one of the worst polls.

We see that, looking at a four-way race, the pollsters did not do that well. Only two of 19 polls did the results not differ significantly from the actual four-candidate distribution.

But what if we only consider the races that matter—Clinton and Trump? I’ve taken the four-way races and turned them into 2-way races. Mathematically, when doing the test, I “normalize” the results so that the sum of Clinton and Trump percentages are now 100%.

We see that for 14 of the 19 polls, the results did not differ from the actual outcome. Again, the worst poll, by far, was the NBC News/Survey Monkey online tracking poll. With such a large sample, they should have been much closer than they ended up being.

So, whatever you’ve heard, the national polls were generally not that far off in predicting two outcomes of the popular vote: The winner of Clinton v. Trump, and the relative proportions of Clinton v. Trump votes.

Here we go!

4:00: Georgia is too close to call! Trump takes Indiana and Kentucky. Hillary takes Vermont (thanks, Bros!)

4:01: South Carolina is slightly Trump leaning, but too close to call (really…not enough returns.)

4:03: Tim Scott (R), Pat Lehey (D) and Rand Paul (R) are going back to Washington D.C.

4:09: Dear MSNBC: Keep fucking Ghoul Giuliani off the fucking TV, for fuck sakes!

4:10: (p.s. if you could minimize Tweety’s time on the TV, we’d appreciate that, too.)

4:18: In my opinion, if Trump loses either Florida or North Carolina, he will lose.

4:50: SC has been called for Trump! Not a big surprise. I predicted 100% with BS polls and 77% chance without for Trump winning.

4:55: Shit’s gonna start happen’ soon.

4:45: North Carolina was called at 7:53pm PST in 2012. But, I believe a judge just extended the poll close time in some areas on account of erroneous announcements. Expect later call.

5:00: CALLS: FL, PA, NH, MO, ME, GA, NC, VA too early to call. IL, MA, CT, RI, DE, DC goes Clinton. MS, OK, AL, TN goes to Mr. Drumpf

5:03: Duckworth takes IL SEN!!!!!!!

5:05: The Duckworth win isn’t a surprise, but it is significant. Without this win, there is no way Dems would take the Senate. As it is, Dem control of the Senate is iffy.

5:09: Steve Kornacki, “…with Hillary Clinton cleaning up with Black voters in Florida….” Ummm…maybe rephrase that?

5:25: As I predicted, Young takes Indiana! That is a blow to Dem’s taking the Senate, but not unexpected given the recent polling.

5:30: Virginia has moved from “too early to call” to “too close to call”. Frankly, I don’t view that as a good sign.

SC/AL both called for Trump. No surprises.

Trump best: T+66
Expected: C+8
Clinton best: C+210https://t.co/gmUwTGqJr4

— Election Graphs (@ElectionGraphs) November 9, 2016

5:44: Some networks call the House for the GOP. Probably true, but AP hasn’t called it yet.

5:45: Georgia is too close to call. Really?!? Georgia could go for Clinton?

5:46: On the other hand, Florida isn’t looking good for Clinton.

5:47: Clinton has a +7% lead in Ohio right now, but really the lead may not be representative.

I wonder if @DineshDSouza is working off any of his public service sentence tonight?

— Darryl Holman (@hominidviews) November 9, 2016

5:55: Hassan leads Ayotte in NH, but it is too close to call.

5:56: It took four days to get a call in Florida in 2012. It looks like FL is going to fuck with America again in 2016.

6:07: Clinton wins NY. Trump takes IN, ND.

6:08: Trump takes NE. Not sure about the NE CDs, but he probably takes them, too.

6:11: Trump takes Texas. Maybe President Hillary Clinton can arrange for Trump to become president of an independent nation called Texas.

6:16: I understand FAUX News has called Arizona for Sen. McCain. Could be.

6:18: Feingold is looking strong in WI.

It's pretty fucking embarrassing that this many states and this many Americans have been conned by a blithering dickhead.

— The Rude Pundit (@rudepundit) November 9, 2016

6:45: Frankly, it is pretty disappointing that the election is this close.

7:17: Virginia is going to Clinton. This is a “must win” for Clinton in case she loses NC and FL. She’ll need NV, WI, MI, and MN too…

7:20: The Donald takes OH. Totally expected, but an important development.

7:28: Okay…Two swing states called: OH Trump and VA Clinton.

7:36: PA is looking better. Clinton is up by 5%, although “calling” the state requires knowledge of what precincts have reported.

7:38: Are we having fun yet?

7:49: Looks like some media is callin NC for Trump…

7:52: Pennsylvania is looking good for Clinton. So here is the deal. If Trump wins FL and NC (as seems likely), Clinton needs VA and PA, which she probably has. Then she needs to sweep WI, MI, and MN, which is likely (even if Trump leads in WI right now). The critical state will be NV. It will likely determine the winner. If Trump takes one of WI MI and MN, bad news for Clinton. I had NV likely going for Trump, but I am told by a campaign doing internal polling in NV that NV will be in Clinton’s column. I’d be happy to be wrong.

BTW: Alaska is a 3-vote wild card. Last non-internet poll in AK had Clinton leading by +4% (or something). On the other hand, it is the ONLY poll that found her leading. And it was from an unknown pollster, so don’t bet the farm on AK.

7:59: Another point about NV: Most polling is likely to underestimate Clinton support because most polls don’t do Spanish versions.

8:00: Clinton takes CA, WA, and HI. Trump gets ID.

8:03: Unbelievable: Johnson is called in WI. No Senate for the Dem’s.

8:04: A couple of other points: First, I am assuming Trump will win IA, but Clinton seems to be running Strong there.

8:05: Trump takes NC.

8:22: Wisconsin is going to be VERY close. Humanity as we know it may depend on the cheesehead vote.

About 10 percent of Milwaukee County & 40 percent of Dane still to come in in WI.

— Scott Detrow (@scottdetrow) November 9, 2016

8:32 Trump takes Iowa and Utah. So it all comes down to MI (looking good for HRC), WI (too close) and NV.

About 10 percent of Milwaukee County & 40 percent of Dane still to come in in WI.

— Scott Detrow (@scottdetrow) November 9, 2016

incredible coda to the night https://t.co/6tCbPZcFBL

— Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) November 9, 2016

I want to take a moment to congratulate the Russians on their narrow victory.

— Darryl Holman (@hominidviews) November 9, 2016

9:20: Okay…Kathy has called and said we’ve lost power at the house, estimated until 11:00. I’m heading home.

11:32: AP has just called the election for Donald Drumpf. Should thing go as expected by Inauguration Day in January, we will be in for chaos.

I was hoping for a bunch of last minute polls being released today, but nada. Perhaps they were all released all last night.

I’m a bit unhappy with the way this election cycle is ending. Since I started aggregating state presidential polls in 2007, one of my objectives has been to see how accurate a simple binomial model can be at predicting the presidential election, using only polls as the data. The model did very well in the 2008 and 2012 cycles.

It is also a more difficult business in 2016. Obviously, the demise of the norm that there be a landline in nearly every home is an emerging problem. Many pollsters supplement landline polls with a cell phone sub-sample. This is expensive, because these calls must be done by people. Interactive voice or digit response polls aren’t permitted for cell phones.

A more difficult problem for my analyses is that there has been a proliferation of internet-based polls. You’ve probably seen them: YouGov, Insights West, Google Analytics, Ipsos/Reuters, SurveyMonkey, to name a few. Most of these polls work by surveying from a very large opt-in panel, and then mathematically adjust the results to match a demographic profile. So, if not enough 50-60 year old White women respond, the few who do respond are, essentially, cloned.

I’m sure this technology can work very well with a huge panel and careful background work to perfect the methods. It may be that some internet pollsters, say YouGov, have done so. But for every YouGov, there are probably a dozen internet polls that haven’t, and they frequently have bizarre results. I don’t want to be in the business of making subjective judgments about whose polls are “good enough” to accept. Therefore, I simply exclude polls that survey internet panels.

Another problem is that internet polls generally don’t have well defined sample sizes. My analyses need to know the “effective” size of each poll to work. “Effective” means the equivalent number of individuals who, if live-polled, would generate the same statistical information as the internet poll. This should, in principle, be easy to estimate using simulation methods like bootstrap resampling, but I am not aware of direct analytical solutions (which would, at a minimum, have to use the distribution of weights). In any case, “effective” sample sizes don’t see to have made it in internet polls yet.

Unfortunately, a number of pollsters switched—sometimes right in the middle of the election season—to using an internet panel. Pollsters that come to mind include Rasmussen, Gravis, and Public Policy Polling. These three pollsters make up a substantial fraction of the total state polls done in any season. I suppose I should accept an internet panel as an approximation of the cell phone sub-sample in a poll, but I didn’t this year. Rules and all that….

Finally, there is the bogus pollsters. Regular readers may recall my fisking of a bogus Pennsylvania poll earlier this year. That was easy…they were amateurs. But the issue could be difficult to identify in real time with a bit more competence.

If you haven’t read Goldy’s takedown of Remington Research and, to a lesser extent, Trafalgar Group, read it now. This development has me down, because I am now in the predicament of ignoring suspicious polls, or playing “poll cop,” something I detest.

I frequently laugh (and mock) right-wingers and their beefs with individual polls or pollsters—think “Unskewed Polls” from 2012. The charges usually amount to nothing but hating the fact that their candidate is losing. Get a grip!

But now, that is what I seem to be doing—calling out a pollster (or two) for bogus polls. There is one difference: my motivation is to be as accurate as possible. Bogus polls fuck with me, whether they come up showing the Democrat up or the Republican up. If lefties launched an effort to dump bogus pro-Democrat polls on the market in order fuck up the aggregated results, I would call the out as well, because their bogus polls would fuck with the accuracy of my polling analyses.

As an aside, remember Birther Queen Orly Taitz? She wrote a blog post a couple of days ago calling upon both Remington Research and Trafalgar Group to swoop into New Hampshire to stop the polling trend there. Here is part of her screed:

However, Democratic Party came up with an absolutely bogus poll from WMUR/UNH, showing Trump behind by 11%, which lowered his average from winning to being 0.6% behind and his total electoral votes from winning 270 to 266. This is a clear psy-op. You can see that all the polls showed Trump leading from 5% to Clinton leading by 1%. This poll showing Clinton ahead by 11% in NH is a complete farce. By the way, Republican senator, Kelly Ayotte, is leading by the same margin and the same WMUR/UNH came with a similar bogus poll to show her far behind.
Remington and Trafalgar pollsters need to post a true poll for New Hampshire ASAP. This poll will move Trump into the lead in NH and his total electoral votes will go up from 266 to winning 270!
Readers of Taitz report are asked to call Remington and Trafalgar pollsters and urge them to publish asap a true poll for New Hampshire

Huh…

So, now I am in a position of having TWO sets of results. One set based on my stated rules and assumptions set out over a year ago. And I have the results excluding Remington Research and Trafalgar Group, whose polls I strongly suspect are bogus. Fuck, I hate that!

• If these two pollsters are legit (full write-up): Clinton wins with 84.5% probability with, on average, 282 votes. The most likely outcome is 276 electoral votes with a 9.03% probability
• If they are bogus, as I suspect (full write-up): Clinton wins with 98.7% probability with, on average, 310 votes. The most likely outcome is 305 electoral votes with a 5.09% probability

With any luck, we’ll know which version corresponds most closely to reality very soon. Finally, here are the relevant graphics, side by side. Click for a larger image.

It’s election day! So, first, make sure you vote. You can find a ballot box (before 8pm) here or get your ballot in the U.S. mail and postmarked by midnight. Find out if you can vote here. In King County, accessible voting options (on-line ballot-marking and in-person voting centers) can be found here.

Then, please join us for an election-watching party at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We usually start at 8:00pm, but some of us will be their early to watch the election coverage.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other 189 chapters of Living Liberally, including nineteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
39.2% probability	60.8% probability
Mean of 49 seats	Mean of 51 seats

Saturday’s analysis showed control of the Senate to likely remain in the hands of the Republicans. The Democrats had only a 12.1% probability of taking the Senate. I’ve added about 20 new polls since then. I’ve also shortened the “current poll” window to 10 days (if only to match the Presidential election).

Two days later, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 12,350 times, there were 26,823 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 60,827 times. In other words, Democrats have a 39.2% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 60.8% probability of controlling the Senate.

There has been a few interesting changes.

• Florida: Democrat Patrick Murphy is trying to oust Sen. Marco Rubio (R). Rubio has held the lead in recent polls, but his margins have shrunk. Rubio’s chances have shrunk from near certainty to a 96% probability. This is still quite good, of course.
  

• Missouri: Democrat Jason Kander is going after Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R) seat. We lose three old polls and gain two new ones for a total of 6 polls. Two are tied; Blunt leads by small margins in three polls. One poll has Kander up by +0.7%. This has shifted the Democrat’s chances from 6.6% to 42.9%.
  

• Nevada: We have 2 current NV polls in the open seat race between Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and Joe Heck (R). The most recent poll has Cortez Masto up +1%; the other poll has Heck up by +2%. So The Democrat’s chances have risen from 7% to 43%.

  

• New Hampshire: The state is just close, close, close. Of 7 current polls Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) leads by small margins in four, and Maggie Hassan (D) leads by small margins in three. The analysis suggests Hassan has a 33% chance of taking the seat.

  

• North Carolina: This is another very close state. The four current polls give two to Sen. Richard Burr (R) and one to Deborah Ross (D); the last one is a tie. Consequently, Burr’s chances of keeping his seat has dropped from 85% to 72%.

  

• Wisconsin: This is the only significant gain for Republicans. Democrat Russ Feingold has been leading Sen. Ron Johnson (R) for the great majority of polls. The three “current” polls have Feingold up, but with smaller margins than the past (+1%, +2%, and +3%). Johnson’s chances have increased from 14% last Saturday to 22% now.

  

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 39.2%, Republicans control the Senate 60.8%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 49.2 ( 1.1)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 50.8 ( 1.1)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 49 (47, 51)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 51 (49, 53)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 35
• Independent seats w/no election: one
• Republican seats w/no election: 30
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: nine
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 21
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: three

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	43
Strong Democrat	4	47
Leans Democrat	1	1	48
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	48
Weak Republican	1	1	1	52
Leans Republican	4	4	51
Strong Republican	5	47
Safe Republican	42

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	%	%	Dem	Rep
State	@	polls	size	Dem	Rep	% wins	% wins
AL		0	0			(0)	(100)
AK		1&	320	23.4	76.6	0.0	100.0
AZ		6	4147	43.6	56.4	0.0	100.0
AR		1&	608	38.2	61.8	0.0	100.0
CA		1	552	63.4	36.6	100.0	0.0
CO		3	1681	54.3	45.7	99.3	0.7
CT		1&	872	61.7	38.3	100.0	0.0
FL		4	2739	47.6	52.4	3.7	96.3
GA		3	2008	44.1	55.9	0.0	100.0
HI		0	0			(100)	(0)
ID		1&	823	29.5	70.5	0.0	100.0
IL		1	450	60.0	40.0	99.9	0.1
IN		2	884	48.3	51.7	23.6	76.4
IA		3	1804	37.1	62.9	0.0	100.0
KS		1	535	36.4	63.6	0.0	100.0
KY		1&	566	41.5	58.5	0.2	99.8
LA		1&	794	34.6	65.4	0.0	100.0
MD		1&	614	66.6	33.4	100.0	0.0
MO		6	4595	49.0	51.0	17.1	82.9
NV		2	1332	49.6	50.4	42.9	57.1
NH		7	4312	49.5	50.5	32.6	67.4
NY		1	567	72.8	27.2	100.0	0.0
NC		4	2777	49.2	50.8	28.2	71.8
ND		0	0			(0)	(100)
OH		3	2342	38.6	61.4	0.0	100.0
OK		0	0			(0)	(100)
OR		1&	558	62.7	37.3	100.0	0.0
PA		8	4945	52.4	47.6	99.3	0.7
SC		1&	941	38.4	61.6	0.0	100.0
SD		1&	534	39.3	60.7	0.1	99.9
UT		2	778	28.7	71.3	0.0	100.0
VT		1&	559	69.1	30.9	100.0	0.0
WA		1	641	56.8	43.2	99.2	0.8
WI		3	2778	51.0	49.0	78.1	21.9

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Clinton	Trump
84.5% probability of winning	15.5% probability of winning
Mean of 282 electoral votes	Mean of 256 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sec. Hillary Clinton (D) leading Donald Trump (R) with 290 EVs to 248 EVs. If the election was held yesterday, we would expect Clinton to win with an 86.8% chance.

Since that analysis there have been about 28 new polls release that satisfy my inclusion criteria. I should point out, that the new polls include eight new polls from Remington Research (R) and four from Trafalgar Group (R). If the significance of this escapes you, read Goldy’s post.

One of the things I am going to do in this analysis is do two analyses: one with these two pollsters included, and one that excludes all Remington and Trafalgar polls. Pick the one you wish.

Which one is right? It is hard to say. I hate accusing a pollster of producing bogus polls. I’ve had numerous people complain about including this poll or that poll, and I ignore them. The entire premise of my effort is that by aggregating polls broadly, any “house effects” will cancel. But the oddities of Remington are clear. Trafalgar polls also seem quite dodgy.

Okay…Here we go. Scroll down or click here for the alternative analysis.

Analysis with All Polls

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 84,508 times and Trump wins 15,492 times (including the 2,449 ties). Clinton received (on average) 282 (-8) to Trump’s 256 (+8) electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 84.5% probability of winning and Trump would have a 15.5% probability of winning. Thus, Clinton slips a bit, but the race isn’t changing much.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 07 Nov 2015 to 07 Nov 2016, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]