The Sierra Club has released their report card for Washington state’s congressional representatives:

• Jay Inslee (D-01), A+
• Rick Larsen (D-02), A
• Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-03), F
• Doc Hastings (R-04), F
• Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-05), F
• Norm Dicks (D-06), A+
• Jim McDermott (D-07), A+
• Dave Reichert (R-08), C
• Adam Smith (D-09), A+

Notice a pattern?

The best of the Republicans, Reichert, who was once taped confessing to pro-environmental votes as a way take environmentalists “out of the game”, only gets away with a C—and that’s based on his voting record.

The bottom line: Republicans are really, really bad for the environment.

Pap: No-tax, no-regulation Tea Partiers are killing America.

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Young Turks: Turning your dead relatives into bullets.

Obama: The American Jobs Act.

The Republican Primary Asylum:

• Red State Update: Are Herman Cain, Ron Paul, an Rick Perry jackiebaggers?
• Newsy: Cain faces heat over statement that black voters are brainwashed.
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Cain moves to the back of the bus.
• O’Donnell: 999 brainwash.
• Stephen: The rise of Herman Cain.
• Young Turks: Koch brothers are funding Herman Cain.
• Romney’s foreign policies sound just like Bush’s.
• Jon: Out with the Christie, in with the Romney.
• Romney’s policies run up against reality.
• Newsy: Whoda thunk? Christie isn’t running.
• Thom: A scorned love affair with Chris Christie
• Actual Audio: Chris Christie at the Reagan Library.
• Stephen on a post-Chris Christie G.O.P. field
• Sam Seder: It’s cool to be racist in the GOP primary.
• Jon on Rick’s family ranch.
• Newsy: Media writes Bachmann’s campaign obit.

Thom: Eric Cantor…no jobs bill, no safety net, no regulations…no! no! no!.

Young Turks: Did Senator Reid screw Senate Dems?

White House: West Wing Week.

Pap: The GOP’s cult mentality.

Oregon Governor John Kitzhaber on the American Jobs Act.

Stephen: Obamacare and the Supremes.

Fleeced Palinistas:

• Newsy: Sarah’s out.
• Jon: Take the money and don’t run (via Political Wire):
• Ann Telnaes: Who to thank for former Gov. Sarah Palin.
• Stephen: A tragic end
• Young Turks: Down goes Palin!

Young Turks: FAUX News—we hire hot women for ratings.

Taxes on the wealthy: Reagan and Obama (via ThinkProgress).

Pap: Chris Christie’s Koch addiction.

Thom: Proof the Heritage Foundation flip flopped on ObamaCare:

GOP supporters take honors as Worst Person in the World.

Young Turks: Meghan McCain vs. Red State.

The Demise of al Qaeda Operative Anwar al-Awlaki:

• Newsy: Media misses the mark on Paul’s impeachment statement.
• Mark Fiore: Drone attack.

Newsy: DNA clears Texas killer after 25 years in prison.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Hartmann: The Romney Rule vs. Buffet Rule.

Glenn Beck is back in the saddle as Worst Person in the World.

Occupied:

• Occupy your city
• Olbermann: First collective statement of Occupy Wall Street
• Sam Seder: Occupy Wall Street doesn’t need demands!.
• Newsy: Unions join the occupation.
• Sam Seder: Occupy Wall Street more popular than Congress & Tea Party…What next?
• Thom: American Exceptionalism versus Occupy Wall Street
• Olbermann: Portland police with infant.
• Susie Occupies LA.
• Young Turks: Republicans are “uncomfortable” with Occupy Wall Street.
• Republicans are on the side of Wall Street.
• Jon: Occupy Wall Street and the Tea party.
• Sam Seder: Occupy Wall Street will outlast Erin Burnett’s show.
• Hartmann: From Occupy Wall Street to Occupy America!
• Young Turks: Cenk talks with Occupy LA occupants.

The Tea Party’s not-so-funny comedian.

Young Turks: Scott Brown gets a bit sexist.

Pap: The GOP’s plan to raise taxes on the middle class.

Thom with another episode of The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Liberal Viewer: What does our jails say about us?

Rep. Wasserman Schultz talks about Eric Cantor’s comments on the American Jobs Act .

Hank and Hitler:

• Newsy: Hank Williams, Jr. pulled from MNF.
• Young Turks: Hank Williams, Jr. Obama Hitler comments.
• Sam Seder: Making sense of Hank’s statement.
• Ed and Pap: Fox’s new celebrity has-been.
• Hank apologizes
• Red State Update: Hank Jr. & Hitler, N-wordhead & Perry
• Young Turks: Hank Williams, Jr.’s fake apology.

Obama hosts the 1985 Chicago Bears.

Young Turks: Koch Brother’s benzene emissions.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Obama on Tuesday (via The Washington Post):

“Folks go around saying ‘Obamacare.’ That’s right — I care,” the president said at a fundraising luncheon in Dallas on Tuesday. He added of Republicans: “That’s their main agenda? That’s your plank? Is making sure 30 million people don’t have health insurance?”

Indeed. But Obama just scratches the surface. The Republican agenda includes elimination of Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, welfare, the insurance and security components of social security, public education, student loan and financial aid programs, abortion, environmental protections, food protections, safety standards, and, of course, unions.

Oh yeah…and the middle class.

Taken altogether, the Republican “utopia” seems like something out of a Mad Max movie.

I’ve been hard on King Council member Jane Hague, and sometimes even liberals criticize me for attacking Jane personally rather than going after her on her record.

But my “personal attacks” are on Jane’s character, her integrity. Or the lack thereof. Character and integrity are not just fair game, they’re really important.

And so based on a number of past events, it seems that Jane Hague has some serious integrity issues. In particular, she has real problems accepting responsibility for her own actions.

Take, for instance, the time in 2001 that Jane Hague ran into a bus:

According to the Metro accident report of May 29, the bus was running the outbound 66 route, driving east on Olive Way. Hague’s 1996 Ford Explorer was stopped in the crosswalk of a traffic signal at Fourth Avenue. Witnesses say Hague pulled out quickly to make a right turn onto Olive and drove into the right side of the bus, behind the front-door frame. The driver reported sounding his horn and stepping on the brakes before impact.

“I do not agree with the driver’s account,” Hague said yesterday. “This is not unusual in the case of a traffic accident.”

According to the Metro driver’s report, after the accident Hague said to him, “You know it’s your fault, don’t you?” The driver replied, “No, I don’t see it that way.”

The driver reported Hague asking, “How do you see it?” and then informing him of her position, saying, “Do you know that I’m your King County councilwoman?”

The driver said Hague demanded his license but didn’t want to give him hers. When witnesses stepped forward and corroborated the driver’s version of events, Hague protested that she was being ganged up on, “to make sure that this accident would appear to be my fault.”

Hague said yesterday her statements to the driver after the accident had been mischaracterized. She denied she had tried to intimidate him or transit officials who came shortly after.

Hague, who is running for re-election, called it “highly unusual” to see “such explicit personality issues raised in the course of a pro-forma traffic report.

There are multiple levels of denial going on here. And, perhaps, a touch of paranoia.

I won’t rehash Jane’s abusive behavior to the police officers who stopped her on suspicion of DUI. And I’ll skip right over the episode in which Jane fails to take responsibility for misleading biographies that incorrectly stated she had a college degree.

Let’s jump ahead to Jane’s most recent accident:

Hague spokesman Brad Harwood said Sept. 26 that the council member was injured on a charity bike ride the previous morning when she collided with another cyclist who made a “goofy” turn in front of her. Harwood said he didn’t know what the event was or where the accident occurred.

It turns out cause of the accident, which occurred on the second day of the Kiwanis-sponsored Wine Country Trek in the Yakima Valley, was a bit more complicated.

Hague and two other cyclists said the accident occurred at an intersection outside Prosser where directions painted on the pavement told bikers to turn left. Hague was about to pass a group of riders ahead of her when they began to make the left turn.

Hague said she was moving “at a fairly good clip” as she approached the intersection, didn’t look for directions because the route went straight in previous years, and she didn’t notice other riders were turning.

Hague’s bike struck Mercer Island resident Penny Storie’s bike, throwing both women to the ground, causing cuts and severe bruising. Hague, who also reported blurred vision and nausea, was later taken by ambulance to a Toppenish hospital and spent two nights in a Bellevue hospital. Storie was not hospitalized.

Hague, 65, said she gave no verbal warning she was about to pass Storie, 66, and a companion because they were still ahead of her.

Storie said the accident was Hague’s fault. “You can’t crash into the back of somebody and put the responsibility on them. . . . I’m black and blue but thankful I have no broken bones.”

Hague said Tuesday she didn’t think anyone was at fault. “It happened so quickly, it’s hard to say.” As for her office’s initial report that the accident was caused by another biker turning into her path, she said it would have been better if she had spoken directly to a reporter. “We were doing the best we could.”

More denial.

Sadly, ten years after the bus accident, Jane has a bicycle accident that ends in denial and a failure to take responsibility for her own actions. This is a long term pattern with Jane.

And after a decade sprinkled with such “events” the pattern has become much too obvious—even too obvious for the mainstream media to ignore Jane’s integrity problem.

It’s Tuesday…and that’s Drinking Liberally night in Seattle. So please join us for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. at 8:00 pm. Stop by earlier for a quiet dinner.

Can’t make it? The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night as well. And the Vancouver, WA chapter also meets tonight. On Thursday, Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets. And the Everett chapter of Drinking Liberally meets in Snohomish next Monday. With 226 chapters of Living Liberally, chances are good there is one near you.

What is the Editorial Board really saying in this Seattle Times editorial titled Gubernatorial hopeful Jay Inslee should shift gears toward state issues?

U.S. REP. Jay Inslee is wasting voters’ time by making an issue of federal health-insurance reform in his campaign for governor in 2012. Instead of attacking Attorney General Rob McKenna’s challenge to “Obamacare,” Inslee should focus on state issues.

Translation: “By ‘wasting voters’ time’ we mean that you can only discuss one issue at a time. And this isn’t it! Come on, Inslee, you’re killing us here. Rob made a mistake—showed his cards, if you will—but we still want folks to believe that McKenna is an honest-to-gosh moderate.”

That the health insurance law will apply in this state does not make it a state issue. The law applies in all the states. It is a federal law being challenged in federal court regarding the federal Constitution.

Translation: “The Tea Party is quite unpopular in Washington state, so stop pointing out that McKenna jumped into this Tea Party-inspired lawsuit. That’s just dirty politics to tarnish McKenna with his own actions.”

Opponents argue that the Constitution gives the federal government no power to order individuals to buy insurance. The Obama administration argues it has that power under the Commerce Clause. This is just the sort of argument the Supreme Court is designed to settle, and the argument was bound to arrive there. That McKenna joined one side and Gov. Chris Gregoire joined the other will not affect the outcome. Nor will a future governor of Washington, whether Inslee or McKenna.

Translation: “Whatever you do, don’t remind people of what has happened in other states when a Teabagger Republican has taken the reigns as Governor. Mentioning the lawsuit makes people fear that a future Governor Rob McKenna might do to Washington state what Florida Governor Rick Scott or Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker have done to their states. We don’t like that. So stop it and talk about other stuff.”

All the while, there boils a huge state issue: the $2-billion budget shortfall. Gregoire has ordered state agencies to offer a list of 10-percent cuts. She will use this list to recommend a package of cuts to a special session of the Legislature. Does Inslee support this?

Translation: “Jay, do you support a Governor being able to collect information from state agencies and make recommendations to the Legislature? Really?!? Because…we’re not so sure….”

Does he think the governor should be empowered to make discretionary cuts if the Legislature does not? How would he close a $2 billion gap? Cuts? Tax increases? Reforms?

Translation: “And don’t even think of bringing up the fact that our own reporting finds McKenna’s state budgetary ideas utter fantasy.”

This gap should be closed by the time the new governor takes office in 2013, but the questions are likely to be similar.

Translation: “So even though our recommended “issue” will quite possibly be irrelevant for the next Governor, and you have 13 more months to talk about similar issues anyway, and regardless of the Health Care reform lawsuit being a timely news item now, and ignoring the fact that McKenna has admitted to losing control of the lawsuit’s agenda, and dismissing the fact that hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Washingtonians will be hurt by success of the lawsuit that McKenna claims to have co-founded, please, please talk about only what we want you to talk about.”

Inslee has been in Congress since 1999, and he is still thinking about national issues. He needs to shift gears.

Translation: “Inslee should shift away from discussing things McKenna has done to harm the people of Washington. The people don’t need to know.”

“P.S. We won’t be endorsing you.”

Pap: Climate change leading to food shortages.

Olbermann with Valerie Plame Wilson on ridding the world of nuclear weapons:

Comcast Newsmakers interviews Gov. Christine Gregoire.

Thom: The Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ugly.

CNN’s Dana Loesch triumphs over the Toe Sucker and Aqua Buddha to snatch the title of Worst Person in the World.

Wall Street Occupied:

• Sam Seder: Really, the Occupy Wall Street message couldn’t be clearer.
• Alyona’s Tool Time: Michael Bloomberg.
• Olbermann with Matt Taibbi on the evolution of the Occupy Wall Street protests.
• Jon on Occupy Wall Street.
• Young Turks: Pepper spraying cop.
• O’Donnell: Unprovoked brutality on Wall Street.
• Maddow: Why occupy Wall Street?
• Sam Seder: Interviewing the occupiers.
• Aloyna’s Fireside Chat on Occupy Wall Street.
• Thom: News from Wall Street.
• Sam Seder: Media ignore the Occupation but cover Teabagger meeting at Dennys.
• Olbermann: DA investigation of the pepper spraying.
• Thom: Occupy Wall Street—who will win?
• Young Turks: Michael Moore’s street speech.
• Olbermann with Sam Seder on the protests.

Alyona’s Tool Time: Bill-O and his NPR hypocrisy.

Maddow: The French 75.

Mark Fiore: TEMA.

Racism in America:

• Thom: The College Republican’s “race-based” bake sale?.
• Young Turks: Pat Robertson talks racism.
• Herman Cain thinks Black folks are brainwashed.
• Ed with some major Psychotalk from Herman Cain.
• Olbermann with Janeane Garofalo on how “Herb” Caine helps Republicans hide their racism.
• Pap: Teabaggers are still driven by racism.
• Thom: Is racism responsible for infant mortality in the U.S.?
• Racist Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Maricopa County, Ariz. is Worst Person in the World.

Greenman: NASA on Arctic sea ice.

Capitol Hostage Situation:

• Newsy: The Onion tweets fake capitol hostage situation.
• ONN: Video from inside the congressional hostage situation.

Ed with Pap and Joe Madison: At last, Obama fights back.

Olbermann and Markos Moulitsas on Roger Ailes’ attempt at rebranding Fox.

Thom gives Teabaggers a constitutional lesson.

Jon does Bill-O.

Maddow: Unalienable rights are not subject to a vote.

Comcast Newsmakers interviews Peter Goldmark.

The G.O.P. Primary Asylum:

• O’Donnell: GOP Debate gives comedians material
• Ann Telnaes: Newt proposes pro-market health care.
• Young Turks: God, the Bible, evolution and Newt.
• Read Rick Perry’s lips (via Slog):
• Young Turks: Rick Perry backs off Immigrant stance.
• Ann Telnaes: The GOP balloon ride .
• Stephen on Rick’s lousy debate performance.
• Stephen: Perry’s heartless gaffe and education for immigrants.
• Young Turks: Christie presidency unlikely for 2012.
• Alyona’s Happy Hour: Is Christie too fat?
• Ed and Pap: Is Chris Christie healthy enough to run for president?
• Newsy: Is Chris Christie too fat to be Prez?
• Sharpton: Inside Governor Chris Christie’s uncouth bullying tactics.
• Bachmann babbles something about Obama and the Arab spring.
• Ed with some major psychotalk from Michele Bachmann.
• Actual Audio: Santorum gets all frothy over gay soldiers.
• Jon and Larry Wilmore on Herman Cain’s surprise Florida straw poll win.
• Newsy: Rudy thinks about it.
• Maddow: Former McCain Palin staffers discourage a Palin 2012 run.
• O’Donnell: Is Palin on thin ice with FAUX News?
• The Oddest Couple:

White House: West Wing Week.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

O’Donnell: Lynch-mob Republicans can’t get enough of the ‘death penalty’ and misery of others.

Rep. Allen West (R-FL) beats a couple of other kooks for title of Worst Person in the World.

Thom: Time for a revolution?

Pap: Time for Democrats to fight.

Stephen ingests Karl Rove’s PAC fundraising secrets.

Greenman: The 2011 Arctic ice minimum.

ONN: Who is/are the worst liars in D.C.?

Thom: Even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

So what we have here is Rob McKenna participating in the multi-state lawsuit, now fully aware that the goal of the lawsuit is to strike down the entire law.

If McKenna is successful, Washington state gets credit for the downfall of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Ouch! Like that sooooooo represents our state. But that’s nuttin’.

Just for shits and giggles, I decided to look up the immediate effects should the lawsuit succeed in killing the law—the things that would affect hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Washingtonians.

Here’s what I found:

• Strips small businesses of the 35% tax credit (50% beginning in 2014) provided to make employee coverage more affordable.
• Eliminate for early retirees the temporary re-insurance program (pending the full development of insurance exchanges).
• Eliminate consumer protections and the external review process for appealing insurance company coverage determinations or claims.
• End the prohibition on recissions—that is, insurance companies will, once again, be allowed to drop sick people from coverage.
• End the prohibition on insurance companies denying coverage to children (and, in 2014, everyone) with pre-existing conditions
• Eliminate caps—once again allow insurance companies to place lifetime caps on coverage.
• End prohibition of certain annual coverage limits—some are in effect right now but all such restrictions will be eliminated by 2014.
• Re-open the Medicare part D “donut hole” by eliminating the 50% discount on brand name drugs for those in the donut hole, and put a halt to the gradual elimination of the donut hole by 2020.
• Reinstate co-payments for preventive care and, under medicare, once again allow preventive care to be included in deductibles.
• Eliminate funding for state consumer assistance programs that help folks navigating the health care insurance process.
• Eliminate funding for resources and new screening procedures that reduce fraud and waste in Medicare, Medicaid, and CHIP.
• Eliminate the option for young adults to remain on their parents’ insurance plan until they turn 26.

That is a selection of the tangible benefits that have already fully or partially kicked in under the law.

It will be painful…particularly to our state’s youngest and oldest citizens.

There are many more benefits to come. Some are extremely important, like getting insurance for the estimated 50 million uninsured Americans.

And then there is the fiscal effects, to the tune of quashing the $210 billion in deficit reduction over the next 10 years, and an estimated $1 trillion over the next 20 years.

Shit…with gubernatorial wannabes like McKenna…who needs al Qaeda?

Rob “Cupcake” McKenna has lost control of the multi-state lawsuit against the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

McKenna made the unilateral decision to join the lawsuit, against the will of the voters, the Governor, and the state legislature. He then repeatedly reassured us all that the aim of the lawsuit is only to overturn the “individual mandate” while keeping the rest of the law intact:

When Attorney General Rob McKenna signed on to the partisan Republican lawsuit challenging the federal Health Care Reform law, he claimed that he was not trying to overturn or repeal the entire law, only part of it.

In an interview with BJ Shea on KISW, McKenna stated, “We don’t think we can stop this entire bill, we don’t think we can or that we should.”

In a video on his official website, McKenna stated, “There are two provisions that are focused on in this lawsuit. None of the thousands of other provisions in the law are affected because we are just addressing these two provisions. . . . . the individual health insurance mandate. . . .and Medicaid.”

In an interview with KING 5 News, McKenna stated, “We are not challenging the policy, that is not our role.”

McKenna’s official website reads, “This suit will not ‘overturn’ or ‘repeal’ the new health care reform legislation. In fact, this lawsuit will not affect most provisions in this 2,400-page bill.”

Has McKenna been lying to us all along? Or…maybe he just didn’t know what the fuck he was doing by joining the lawsuit. Because the principles of the lawsuit see a larger purpose:

“This health-care law is an affront on Americans’ individual liberty,” said Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, who asked the high court to strike down the entire law, not just its mandate that all Americans have health insurance. […]

Bondi’s request to strike down the entire law was at odds with McKenna’s statements when he made Washington state a plaintiff in the case last year.

McKenna, a Republican candidate for governor in 2012, said his goal in joining the lawsuit was not to strike down the entire law, just the provisions he argues are unconstitutional — chiefly the mandate. But the plaintiffs’ legal briefs since then repeatedly have sought to scrap the entire law.

McKenna’s office said he has been overruled on that point by his co-plaintiffs.

So, whether he initially lied or was just too fucking stupid or incurious enough to know what he was signing up for, the one thing we know: McKenna hasn’t been influential enough to convince his fellow AGs to limit the scope to what he promised us.

McKenna should now do the right thing and pull out of the lawsuit.

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but a few folks show up earlier for a quiet dinner.

Can’t make it tonight? The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night. Tonight the Bellingham Chapter also meets at 7:00pm. Tomorrow night at 7:00pm, the Burien chapter meets. And next Monday, the Olympia and the South Bellevue chapters of Drinking Liberally meet at 7:00 pm.

With 225 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are good there is one near you.

There is another statewide poll result released by King 5 today. This one is for the 2012 Attorney General race between King Council members Bob Ferguson (D) and Reagan Dunn (R). Like the gubernatorial poll I wrote about earlier, 523 registered voters expressed a preference.

A total of 388 had a preference, of which 207 (39%) went for Ferguson and 181 (34%) went for Dunn. Some 27% had no preference—hardly surprising since both politicians are mostly known in King County. The normalized percentages are 53.4% for Ferguson and 46.6% for Dunn. But the poll has a very small effective sample size.

The Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections finds Ferguson winning 825,042 times to Dunn’s 165,625 victories.

If an election was to be held today, we would expect Ferguson to win with an 83.3% probability. Of course, the polling results are not “significant” by traditional criteria.

I suspect that this poll is biased in favor of Ferguson. My reason is that the largest share of undecideds probably come from outside of King County, where there is low name recognition for both candidates. Therefore, what we see is likely dominated by Democratic-leaning preferences within King County. A small countervailing bias might arise from the better name recognition outside of King County for Reagan Dunn, on account of his late Mother, Rep. Jennifer Dunn (R). Still, Ferguson gets a few points advantage out of the poll at this stage of the election season.

The contrast between this race and the gubernatorial race is interesting. At first glance, it might seem concerning that Ferguson (D) leads Dunn (R) for Attorney General in the same poll that finds current Attorney General Rob McKenna (R) leading Rep. Jay Inslee (D) for the Governor’s race. Rather than spelling doom for Inslee, I think this just shows that McKenna has much better name recognition statewide, and even within King County. The position of Attorney General can be high-profile, and McKenna has certainly not been bashful about taking advantage of it to raise his profile. And while Inslee has been very popular in the 1st CD (winning by double digits in every one of his last six reelection bids), he hasn’t nearly the name recognition outside of his district.

In sum, Inslee is a little better off than today’s poll suggests, and Ferguson is a little worse off than today’s poll suggests. Both races are probably closer to 50%-50%.

Update: As Richard Pope points out in the comment thread, the numbers in the post didn’t match the headline. The headline is correct. I screwed up typing Inslee’s number into a database, and the error spread from there. All fixed now.

A new poll is about to be released in the Washington gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) and state Attorney General Rob McKenna. The poll surveyed 532 registered voters and was conducted on behalf of KING 5 by Survey USA. KING 5‘s Robert Mak gives a brief overview of the results.

0f the 532 surveyed, 404 436 had an opinion: 170 202 (32 38%) supported Inslee and 234 (44%) supported McKenna. The undecided group made up 24.1 18%. I did my typical Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections at the observed percentages. Inslee “won” 11,474 136,028 times and McKenna “won” 987,293 856,218 times.

The results suggest that, if the election was held today, McKenna would win with a 98.9 86.3% probability. Note that since McKenna’s probability of winning is less than 95%, the lead is not considered “significant” by traditional statistical reasoning.

It is, of course, too early to panic over this poll, particularly with 24 18% undecided. Nevertheless, this poll puts McKenna in the lead. Last week a poll from Strategies 360, a Democratic consulting firm, showed a similar lead for McKenna, 46% to 39%. I generally ignore polls from partisan consultants or polls commissioned by campaigns, but the similarity in results is noteworthy. The previous “real” poll for this race was from Survey USA in late June and showed Inslee with a small, non-significant lead over McKenna, 47% to 44% (my analysis is here).

Mac points out for today’s poll:

McKenna’s early lead can be attributed in part to his strength in the Puget Sound area. In King, Pierce and Snohomish counties, he’s even with Inslee at 41% each, which is significant for a Republican candidate. As expected, McKenna picks up votes in more conservative eastern Washington with a 59%-25% advantage.

Inslee has, apparently, lost ground to McKenna on both fronts: in June he was up 49% to 42% in Seattle and McKenna was up 51% to 41% in eastern Washington.

This race is being touted as the hottest Governor’s race in the country, and the best G.O.P. gubernatorial pick-up opportunity in the nation. It’s certainly living up to the hype!

Obama: Address to the U.N.:

Ann Telnaes: The dangers of privatizing Social Security.

Pap: Trade deals are killing American jobs.

Thom: How Republicans are trying to steal elections.

Capital Punishment:

• Ann Telnaes: The problem with capital punishment….
• Thom: Have the psychopaths taken over America?

Mark Fiore: SolyndraGatePocalypse.

Young Turks are going to Current TV.

Something to make Puddybud’s head implode: Al Gore welcomes Cenk and the Young Turks to Current TV:

New co-chair of “Rick Perry’s Florida Presidency 5 campaign leadership team” is Worst Person in the World.

Ed with some psychotalk from a poor impoverished Republican.

Sam Seder: First hand account of “Occupy Wall Street”.

Repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell

• Thom and Lt. Dan Choi on repeal of DADT.
• Jay Inslee on repeal of DADT.
• Lawrence O’Donnell and Dan Savage on DADT
• Maddow: The end of DADT (Part I).
• Maddow: The end of DADT (Part II).
• Young Turks: No sex in military says Rick Santorum.

Obama: The American Inventions act.

Actual Audio: James Carville wants Obama to fire somebody.

Pap and Ed: The truly evil nature of FAUX News.

Jon interviewed by Rolling Stone.

The G.O.P. Primary Asylum:

• Liberal Viewer: Are Republicans pro-Life or pro-death
• David Lettermann mocks the GOP debate.
• GOP 2012: A lot of reasons not to elect ’em
• Sam Seder: Candidates silent as debate audience boos gay soldier.
• David Schuster on anti-intellectualism in the G.O.P. primary.
• Newsy: Covering the crowd’s booing a gay soldier.
• Michele Bachmann chooses HPV:
• Young Turks: Michele Bachmann & dangerous food
• Alyona’s Tool Time: Michele Bachmann, “The banks are getting killed.”
• David Shuster and comedian Andy Borowitz on Bachmann’s Tonight Show appearance.
• Pap: Michele Bachmann’s warped world view.
• Young Turks: underinformed voters love Perry.
• Aloyna: Perry Chokes.
• Sam: God tells Rick Perry to kiss AIG ass.
• Young Turks: Rick Perry’s Armageddon.
• Rick Perry’s Texas Miracle:
• Tweety: What Texas miracle?
• Young Turks: Perry’s secession lie.
• Newsy: Romney and Perry trade blows
• Mitt-pocrisy on the American Jobs Act.
• Alyona’s Tool Time: Middle-Class Mitt.
• Sharpton: Mitt’s personal investments…
• Young Turks: No sex in military says Rick Santorum.
• Sam Seder: Rick Santorums all over Google.
• Alyona’s Tool Time: Santorum’s Google problem.
• Comedy Central talks to Gary Johnson (he’s running for President).

White House: West Wing Week.

David Schuster with Comedian Jamie Kilstein on Tea Party untruths.

American Family Association breaks into Worst Person in the World.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Newsy: Political ads on Twitter.

Oh Nos! Class Warfare!

• Ed and Pap: It’s not class warfare…it’s class genocide!
• Olbermann and former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm on class warfare.
• Stephen: The Buffet rule and Obama’s class warfare.
• Ann Telnaes: Class warfare, GOP style.
• Pap: The class warfare that needs to happen.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Stephen: Obama wasted no time emarassing US at the UN.

Pap: The hatred coming from the Teabaggers.

Thom: Republicans are taking more hostages, are you next?

Alyona’s Happy Hour: Bristol Palin bar fight.

Obama on No Child Left Behind.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

It’s time for more Republican kkkraaaaazzzzy! Tonight’s debate is brought to you by the odd team of Google and FAUX News.

The livestream can be found here.

I’ll liveblog as I have the chance and inclination…provided the dry heaving doesn’t turn into actual vomiting.

5:58: Okay…I’m getting a little more psyched. I’m curious to learn whose death will bring on raucous cheers from the audience, this time.

6:00: Gary Johnson is allowed to participate!?!

6:07: Bachmann wants everyone to keep every single dollar that they earn. Does she even know where her salary comes from?

6:08: Santorum said something, but I was writing the above comment. It sounded really icky anyway.

6:15: “And that dog don’t hunt”, Herman Cain channels Bill Clinton.

6:24: Nice…America’s least popular Governor (Scott) wishes the candidates good luck.

6:25: Rick Perry on Social Security: I didn’t really mean to eliminate Social Security…its just that we should allow people to be in other programs just like they are already doing in almost every state!

6:32: Why does Herman Cain hate Richard Nixon?!?

6:34: Newt brings back the Contract on America™!

6:41: Huh…did you know that Michele Bachmann is the mother of 5 biological children and foster mother of 23 children?

6:42: Huntsman one-ups two-ups Bachmann. He has 7 biological children.

6:44: The Great Wall of Bachmann

6:46: And…The Great Wall of Newt

6:48: And The Great Wall of Mitt

6:51: Chris Wallace just said, “Senator Santorum…no need to butt in!”

6:52: The Great Wall of Santorum. Eeeeeeewwwwwwwwwww!

6:54: Someone should tell Ron Paul that the term “data bank” hasn’t been used since 1979.