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Poll: Inslee and McKenna are tied

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Public Policy Polling (PPP) released a new Washington state poll today that covers the gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) and A.G. Rob McKenna (R). The poll surveyed 1,264 Washington voters (MOE 2.76%) from Feb. 16th to the 19th.

The poll finds Inslee and McKenna tied at 42% each, with 16% undecided.

With a tied result, I won’t even bother with a Monte Carlo analysis…each candidate would win about half the simulated elections.

The tie is quite a change from two recent polls. A SurveyUSA poll taken from Feb. 13th to the 16th had McKenna leading Inslee, 49% to 39%. And shortly before that, a Elway poll taken from Feb. 7th to the 9th had McKenna leading Inslee 45% to 36%.

The SurveyUSA poll and the new PPP poll cover a continuous range of dates, from Feb 13th to the 19th, lets pool the results of the two polls and do a Monte Carlo analysis. After a million simulated elections using the two polls, Inslee wins 150,944 times and McKenna wins 845,007 times. In other words, an election held now would result in a win for McKenna with a probability of 84.8% and a win for Inslee with a 15.2% probability.

Here is the distribution of outcomes from the simulated elections:

PPPSUSAFeb2012

The cross-tabs in the PPP poll suggest that Inslee may have a little more to gain from the undecided vote. McKenna’s has captured much of his base, with fewer undecideds among groups that tend to support him. Inslee’s support seems less solid, but that means he has more potential to win over undecideds. A positive sign for McKena is the Independents, who go for him over Inslee, 43% to 31% with a non-trivial number of undecideds.

There were a few of other interesting items polled.

Initiative 502, that would regulate, tax, and legalize marijuana is up 47% to 39% with 15% undecided.

Finally, a question over marriage equality found:

  • 46% — Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry
  • 32% — Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not marry
  • 20% — There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship
  • 2% — Not sure

In the race for A.G., King County councilmember Reagan Dunn (R) leads King County councilmember Bob Ferguson, 34% to 32% with 34% undediced. The previous poll in this race, a September SurveyUSA poll, had Ferguson at 39%, Dunn at 34% and 26% undecided.

Buh-bye Buddy

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You won’t have Buddy to kick around any more:

Frustrated and largely ignored, Buddy Roemer is ending his bid for the Republican nomination and will instead seek the presidency on a third-party ticket.

Let’s get real…America is not prepared for a “President Buddy.”

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottlePlease join us tonight for an evening of Politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. We start at 8:00pm, but some of us show up even earlier.

Yesterday, SeattlePI.com’s Joel Connelly (who sometimes stops by DL) summarized the Republican war on women. The Partisans have their own take on it:

Can’t make it to Seattle? There is also a meeting tonight of the Tri-Cities chapter. And Wednesday evening, the Burien chapter meets.

With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

Poll Analysis: Obama leads Santorum

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Obama Santorum
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 356 electoral votes Mean of 182 electoral votes

Several weeks A week and a half ago, former Sen. Rick Santorum surpassed former Gov. Mitt Romney in the national polling to become the presumptive front-runner in the G.O.P. primary contest. In fact, Santorum has led Romney in the past six consecutive polls since February 9th. Santorum has led by double digits in the last two (here and here).

So why am I just now getting around to the first analysis of state head-to-head polls for a match-up with President Barack Obama? In fact, I’ve been ready to go for weeks now. The problem is that there is a scarcity of polling data for Mr. Santorum. It seems pollsters have, until very recently, considered Santorum one of the least likely nominees in what was once a crowded G.O.P. field.

To quantify it, I have one or more polls in 37 states (plus each of Nebraska’s three congressional districts) for Newt Gingrich. But, after throughly scouring the the intertubes for polls, I only find polling for 18 states that match up Obama and Santorum (and no polls for Nebraska’s CDs). I’ve been waiting a couple of weeks for more polling, and the wait has not gone unrewarded. In the past 9 days, 13 of 19 polls have included an Obama–Santorum match-up, some of those polls are state firsts.

What do we do with states for which there is no polling? As described in the FAQ, I average the 2004 and 2008 elections according to Democratic and Republican percentages. The winner wins the state in each of the simulations. What this rule means statistically is that the results are underdispersed—that is, the distribution of electoral votes is narrower (and lumpier) than it would be if we had polling data for the “missing” states. The problem will correct itself as more polling data come in.

Here’s the result for today. A Monte Carlo analysis using the state head-to-head polls gives Obama a victory in each of the 100,000 simulated elections. Obama receives (on average) 349 to Santorum’s 189 electoral votes.

Earlier today, I did similar analyses for Gingrich and Romney:

  • Obama v. Santorum: 349 to 189
  • Obama v. Gingrich: 397 to 141
  • Obama v. Romney: 331 to 207

This summary shows that Santorum performs much better against Obama than Newt Gingrich, but a little worse than Mitt Romney.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations. That’s a pretty lumpy distribution, largely reflecting uncertainty in Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania:

[Read more…]

Poll Analysis: Romney gains slightly on Obama

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Obama Romney
99.9% probability of winning 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 331 electoral votes Mean of 207 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by an average of 348 to 190 electoral votes and a probability of beating Romney of 99.989%—that is, Romney won 11 of the 100,000 simulated elections.

Now nine new polls weigh in on the race:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA Rasmussen 08-Feb 16-Feb 500 4.5 57 35 O+22
IA Iowa Poll 12-Feb 15-Feb 800 3.5 44 46 R+2
MA Suffolk 11-Feb 15-Feb 500 — 53.0 39.3 O+13.7
MI PPP 10-Feb 12-Feb 560 4.1 54 38 O+16
NM Rasmussen 14-Feb 14-Feb 500 4.5 55 36 O+19
OH Fox News 11-Feb 13-Feb 505 4.5 38 44 R+6
TX U Texas 08-Feb 15-Feb 529 4.3 36 49 R+13
WA Elway 07-Feb 09-Feb 405 5.0 49 38 O+11
WA SurveyUSA 13-Feb 15-Feb 572 4.2 49.9 39.2 O+10.7

The polls in California, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Washington are unsurprising in giving Obama double-digit leads. Same for Romney’s double-digit lead in Texas.

The New Mexico poll is, perhaps, a little surprising in giving Obama a +19% lead. But, really, Obama’s lead has been rock-solid in the four NM polls taken to date:

ObamaRomney20Jan12-20Feb12New Mexico

Romney leads Obama by +2 in Iowa. My hunch is that this is an outlier, given the polling to date and that this result comes from a non-mainstream pollster:

ObamaRomney20Jan12-20Feb12Iowa

The Ohio poll, giving Romney a +6% edge over Obama, reverses the trend mentioned in the previous analysis (see the graph there). Overall, Obama still leads in Ohio because there are four current polls that, combined, give Obama a 51% to 49% edge. Indeed, Obama won Ohio in 85% of the simulated elections.

With the new polls, a Monte Carlo analysis (100,000 simulated state elections, each contributing to an electoral college election) has Obama winning 99,868 times. Now Romney wins 132 times, suggesting that Obama would win an election held now with a 99.9% probability. Obama receives (on average) 331 to Romney’s 207 electoral votes, a gain of +17 votes for Romney.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Poll Analysis: Newt gains a bit but still loses 100% to Obama

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Obama Gingrich
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 397 electoral votes Mean of 141 electoral votes

It has been over two weeks since the previous analysis of the Obama–Gingrich match-up using state head-to-head polls. This is largely because Newt Gingrich’s second lead over Mitt Romney in the national G.O.P. primary polls was rather transient—even more fleeting than his late-2011 lead.

As the life is sucked out of the Gingrich campaign, these analyses become less relevant. A telltale sign of a dying campaign is when pollsters no longer include a candidate in its state head-to-head polls. That has begun to happen for Gingrich. Rasmussen polled Romeny and Santorum, but not Gingrich, in its most recent Florida, New Mexico, and California polls. A Civitas poll in North Carolina and a WBUR poll in Massachusetts did the same. A recent Elway poll in Washington only reported results for Romney.

So, for President’s day, here is an analysis for Gingrich. This may be Newt’s last. I’ll also post an update for Romney, and post Santorum’s very first analysis.

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama with 100% probability of beating Gingrich, and leading by (on average) 421 to 117 electoral votes.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins 100,000 times (i.e. Obama has 100% probability of beating Gingrich in an election held now). Obama receives (on average) 397 to Gingrich’s 141 electoral votes.

That newt gains in average electoral votes while losing steam in the primary is because polling is so infrequent at this point. We are now seeing the “fruits” of Gingrich’s surge two months ago.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Thom: The Citizens United showdown in Montana.

Stephen: The Left’s pro-safety agenda.

Obama in Everett, WA: Promoting American manufacturing and exports:

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Newsy: MSNBC and Pat Buchanan part ways.

The Republican War on Women:

Thom with John Nichols: Uprising in Wisconsin.

White House: West Wing Week.

Alyona: Three signs you might be a terrorist.

Young Turks: Asian actress from Hoekstra commercial apologizes.

Roy Zimerman: Another “Vote Republican” verse.

Focus on FAUX:

Newsy: Colbert Report goes off the air.

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Right-wing nut case Andrew Breitbart crazies his way to Worst Person in the World.

Jon: What. Congress did something wrong? (Via TalkingPointsMemo.)

Controversial racist Pete Hoekstra alternative advertisement.

Young Turks: Shit Erin Says’ about Iran—We’re not going to let you drive us into another.

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

The G.O.P. Comedy Show:

Again! Right-wing blogger Andrew Breitbart falsifies, exaggerates, and distorts his way to Worst Person in the World.

Thom: When will the Grover Norquist bubble end?

Alyona: The voter fraud myth.

ONN week in review: Obama urges citizens to hide evidence of formerly prosperous lives from nation’s young children.

Roy Zimmerman: And another “Vote Republican” verse.

Jon: The conservative resonse to women soldiers.

Thom: Five Million people wiped off of voter rolls.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Today in marriage equality

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We’ve come a long way, baby! Over the past decade, and particularly over the last couple of years, public opinion polls have increasingly found a majority of people in support of marriage equality. But nothing says, “the bigots will lose,” like this:

Dick Cheney is quietly lobbying at least one Maryland state lawmaker to back marriage equality, the Baltimore Sun reported on Thursday. Since leaving the vice president’s office, Cheney has been increasingly vocal in his support for same-sex marriage, but the extent of his engagement on the issue was not previously well known.

The man without a heartbeat finds his heart. Cheney’s change of heart (no pun intended) is, no doubt, about his daughter Mary Cheney.

In New Jersey, a marriage equality bill passed the New Jersey Assembly yesterday, and was sent to Gov. Chris Christie today. Christie has vowed to veto the bill.

Democrats who identified same-sex marriage as their No. 1 priority for the two-year legislative session that began in January have adopted a more long-term view. […]

…[T]hey plan to bide their time in hopes that support for gay marriage — 52 percent for gay marriage, 42 against it, in New Jersey, according to one recent voter poll — will continue to grow.

“We do have two years,” said Reed Gusciora, a Trenton Democrat who sponsored the bill in the Assembly and who is one of two openly gay state lawmakers. “We changed a lot of views in the last couple of weeks. Give us two years and we’re going to change a heck of a lot more.”

Here in Washington state, opponents of our new marriage equality bill have launched a campaign to collect 120,577 valid signatures to get Referendum on the ballot. If they succeed, the law will be put “on hold” so that voters can approve or reject it.

The new referendum drive is not unlike the 2009 signature drive that resulted in R-71, asking voters to approve or reject the state’s domestic partner registration law. The signature drive was successful, and voters ended up supported the “all but marriage” law by a healthy 53% to 47% margin.

There is one big difference between the 2009 signature drive and the current effort: we now know that petitions are public documents. That is, if you sign a petition to put a referendum on the ballot, you cannot hide the fact. The Supreme Court says so.

Just yesterday, a searchable database of those who signed R-71 went live at whosigned.org. You can search by names, streets, cities, zip codes, etc. One justification for the page is to assist in spotting fraud. Did someone sign a petition in your name? Go find out.

The other reason for putting the name on-line is so that you can learn about the bigots in your neighborhood. Got acquaintances who are closet homophobes? Check out whosigned.org.

Want to know who to NOT invite to your next Christmas party? Check out whosigned.org.

I looked up who signed from Redmond. I didn’t sign it. Few of the people in my immediate neighborhood signed. I couldn’t find any friends or acquaintances who signed it. Unsurprisingly, Redmond’s famous bigot, Ken Hutcherson, did sign—as did his wife Patricia and daughter Avery.

So…folks who sign petitions to put Washington’s marriage equality law on the ballot should know: we will know you signed. You won’t have to make crude fagot jokes for us to know you are a bigot. Your signature on that petition accomplishes the same thing.

We will put your name and address in an open, searchable web page.

We will encourage your friends, neighbors, and acquaintances to learn that you signed.

We WILL express our disappointment in you and our disapproval of your ignorance and bigotry.

And we will (when we can, legally) discriminate against you.

I’m not talking violence…I’m talking about stigmata: loss of reputation, public humiliation, and withdrawal of personal and social support.

You’ve been warned.

Poll Analysis: New SUSA poll has McKenna Leading Inslee, 49% to 39%

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Another poll in Washington state gives us another sign that Washington state will have a Republican Governor come 2013.

Today SurveyUSA released a new poll that covers the gubernatorial race and some presidential match-ups in the state. The poll surveyed 572 registered Washington voters (MOE 4.2%) from 13 Feb. to 16 Feb. The survey used a mix of home phone and cell phone respondents.

First the presidential match-ups:

  • Obama v. Romney: 50% to 39% (+11%)
  • Obama v. Paul: 50% to 37% (+13%)
  • Obama v. Santorum: 51% to 38% (+13%)
  • Obama v. Gingrich: 56% to 34% (+22%)

Man, 22%! Gingrich sure has has some debilitating negatives!

In the gubernatorial race, A.G. Rob McKenna (R) leads Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-1) by 49% to 39% (+10).

A Monte Carlo analysis [FAQ] using a million simulated elections finds Inslee winning 34,472 times to McKenna’s 962,998 wins. This suggests that, in an election held now, McKenna would have a 96.5% probability of winning; Inslee, a 3.5% probability. Here is the distribution of electoral votes from the simulated elections:

SUSAFeb2012

The poll result is very similar to an Elway poll taken from 7 Feb. to 9 Feb. If we pool the samples from both of these polls and do the Monte Carlo analysis we find Inslee winning only 10,720 times to McKenna’s 988,657 wins. The evidence suggests that, at this point, McKenna would win with a 98.9% probability:

ElwaySUSAFeb2012

Denial is not an option for Inslee supporters. While there is plenty of time to turn it around, Inslee is definitely the underdog at this point in the race.

The most recent analysis for the Inslee—McKenna race can be found here.

Son of King Dome

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Seattle Mayor Mike McGinn and King County Executive Dow Constantine held a joint press conference this afternoon to announce…yet another new sports stadium for our region.

This one would draw both an NBA team (Basketball? Yyyyyyyyawn. More green Jell-o commercials? Wait…that’s right. I LOVE Jeremy Lin! I’m a HUGE fan…Always have been. This is GREAT!) and an NHL team (hey…that is cool!).

So…is this another fuck-the-tax-payers-for-wealthy-team-owners deal? Apparently not, at least if Goldy, normally a curmudgeon on such things, is to be believed:

Honestly, objectively, and not just because I’m a hockey fan itching for an NHL franchise, this really does look like a damn good deal for the region and taxpayers. Assuming it actually happens.

Goldy provides an overview of the deal:

Under the terms of the proposal…a private investment group led by Seattle-born Chris Hansen, would put up $290 million toward building a new sports arena just south of Safeco Field, matched by a joint city/county contribution capped at $200 million. The city/county would own the arena, with its debt service paid through a combination of taxes generated by the facility, and rent paid by both the teams and the facility operator. In years where revenue falls short of the debt obligation, the teams and operator would be required to pay additional rent to cover the difference.

The city/county would issue a 30-year bond to finance its portion of the construction costs, and the teams would sign a 30-year lease with a binding non-relocation clause.

If all the pieces come together, we get an arena, NBA and NHL teams, all with zero new public taxes. Sounds like a Lin-Lin deal.

Obama leads Romney in Washington state

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Elway has released a new poll today of 405 registered Washington state voters interviewed from Feb 7-9. The poll offers several interesting head-to-head match-ups with Obama:

ElwayFeb2012WAObama

Here are the highlights:

  • Obama is +11% against Romney, 49% to 38%
  • Obama is +8% against a generic Republican, 50% to 42%
  • Romney loses about 6% of Republican voters compared to a generic Republican candidate.
  • When Ron Paul is added to the mix, 17% abandon Romney for Paul.

Republicans are having troubles warming up to the Mittster.

Obama has maintained a solid lead over Romney in Washington state. He led by +8 (49% to 41%) in last November’s Survey USA poll. Before that, the October Washington Poll found Obama leading by +9.5% (50.2% to 40.7%):

ObamaRomney15Jan12-15Feb12Washington

Obama will be visiting Washington state on Friday where, among other things, he’ll visit a Boeing manufacturing plant in Everett.

Poll Analysis: Obama nearly 100% against Romney

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[Update: An analysis using more recent polls can be found here.]

Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 348 electoral votes Mean of 190 electoral votes

A handful of new state head-to-head polls, including two from swing states, have come out since the previous analysis. Obama leads in all five:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA SurveyUSA 08-Feb 10-Feb 2088 2.1 60 31 O+29
FL Rasmussen 09-Feb 09-Feb 500 4.5 47 44 O+3
MA WBUR 06-Feb 09-Feb 503 4.4 55 34 O+21
NY Quinnipiac 08-Feb 13-Feb 1233 2.8 52 35 O+17
OH Quinnipiac 07-Feb 12-Feb 1421 2.6 46 44 O+2

California has Obama crushing Romney by +29%. Massachusetts, a state Romney once governed, has Obama up by nearly as much (+21%). New York supports Obama over Romney by +17%.

In Ohio, the new poll gives Obama a slender +2% lead over Romney. Obama has led in all four Ohio polls taken this year. The polling suggests to me that Ohio may not be so much a swing state this year….
ObamaRomney15Jan12-15Feb12Ohio

We now have our first February poll out of Florida. This one gives Obama a thin +3% lead over Romney. Obama leads in the two most recent Florida polls; Romney led in the two January polls before that.

Florida looks more like a swing state than does Ohio, but the recent trend looks favorable for Obama:
ObamaRomney15Jan12-15Feb12Florida

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney by 344 to 194 electoral votes and a probability of winning of 99.8%.

With the new polls included, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,989 times and Romney wins 11 times. If an election was held now, we expect Obama to win with nearly 100% probability. Obama’s average electoral vote total climbed by +4 to 348, whereas Romney’s average is now 190 electoral votes.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

Poll analysis: McKenna leads Inslee 45% to 36%

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Elway released a new poll today for the Washington state gubernatorial race between A.G. Rob McKenna (R) and Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01). The poll surveyed 405 registered voters (M.O.E. 5%) and was conducted from the 7th to the 9th of February.

The poll found that, out of those 405 voters, McKenna leads Inslee 45% to 36%, with 20% undecided. Of the 328 “decided” voters, 55.5% selected McKenna and 44.5% selected Inslee.

A Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections [FAQ] using the observed percentages gave McKenna 918,606 wins to Inslee’s 75,709 wins. The analysis suggests that, if the election had been held this past week, McKenna would have a 92.4% probability of winning, and Inslee a 7.6% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral outcomes from the simulated elections:

ElwayFeb2012

This makes the fifth poll in a row that McKenna has led Inslee—his lead can no longer be explained by chance. The previous poll, taken in mid-January, had McKenna leading Inslee 46% to 43% and with a 71.5% probability of beating Inslee. In fact, Inslee last led in a SurveyUSA poll taken last June.

The most recent analysis for the Inslee—McKenna race can be found here.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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Just in time for Valentines Day, Gov. Christine Gregoire has signed the marriage equality bill. Help us celebrate on Tuesday. Grab your sweetheart and join us for a celebration of love and equality under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

(Mercifully…there are no Republican debates or primary events to kill the mood….)

Drinking Liberally–Seattle meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some of us show up a little earlier for dinner.

Presidential candidate Valentines day cards.

Roy Zimmerman with a new version of vote Republican:

Can’t make it to Seattle? There are also meetings on Tuesday night of the Tri-Cities, Bellingham, and Vancouver, WA chapters. The Tacoma chapter meets this Thursday. And next Monday there are meetings of the Woodinville the Olympia, the Yakima, and the Shelton chapters.

With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

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