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Eyman gets a red light

by Darryl — Friday, 3/9/12, 9:03 am

It’s hard to believe, but another initiative from initiative peddler slut, Tim Eyman, has been struck down by the state Supreme Court:

Local voters can’t ban red-light cameras by initiative, the state Supreme Court said Thursday in a ruling that dampens efforts around the state to banish the cameras.

The court ruled that the Legislature gave “exclusive power” to local city and county councils to decide whether to use the cameras.

This brings up the question, why is Tim Eyman dabbling in pedestrian, local issues like red light cameras?

The battle against the intersection cameras is organized and cheered by Tim Eyman, who over the past decade has made a career of pushing anti-tax initiative campaigns. Red-light cameras are a new cause for him, and one he believes has widespread appeal beyond party affiliation.

“Appeal beyond party affiliation”? Huh…it sounds to me like money is drying up for Eyman—his wealthy right-wing Johns have grown weary of dumping boat-loads of money into his efforts only to experience failure at the ballot or have his initiatives overturned by the courts.

Eyman is forced to take it to the streets and sell himself on the local street corners. You know…in the red light districts.

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Poll Analysis: Inslee and McKenna tied

by Darryl — Wednesday, 3/7/12, 10:32 am

A new poll was released today in the race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-1) and state AG Rob McKenna (R). The poll of 500 “Washington registered voters who are likely to vote in the November…election” was taken from 21 to 23 February. The margin of error is 4.4%.

The poll shows the candidate’s favorable/unfavorables about tied at 33%/21% for Inslee and 33%/20% for McKenna. Here is the key result:

GIMar2012

This makes the second consecutive poll showing the race a tie. A PPP poll taken a few days earlier had the candidates tied at 42%. A SurveyUSA poll taken a week earlier had McKenna leading Inslee 49% to 39%.

The polling history for this race shows that McKenna held a solid lead in the fall of 2011 that lasted into mid-February 2012.

InsleeMcKenna07Feb12-07Mar12Washington

The three most recent polls in this race are nearly contiguous, covering a period from the 13th to the 23rd of February with only a 2 day gap between the two most recent polls. Therefore, I’ve pooled them to give a snapshot of the race for the second half of February. This yields a sample of 2,336 “votes” of which 1,945 go to either McKenna or Inslee. McKenna leads Inslee 42.9% to 40.4%.

A Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections using this sample yields 179,027 wins for Inslee and 817,061 wins for McKenna. The results suggest that, if the election had been held during the second half of February, McKenna would have won with an 82% probability and Inslee would have won with an 18% probability. Here is the distribution of election outcomes:

ThreeFebPolls

The analysis does not, of course, consider the trend over the last three polls. The two most recent polls must give Inslee supporters a big sigh of relief and some hope in what was shaping up to be a certain victory for McKenna.

[The most recent analysis for this race is here]

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Super Tuesday Open Thread

by Darryl — Tuesday, 3/6/12, 5:11 pm

Game on! Have at it in the comment thread.

5:11 (PDT): Okay…so I just got here and I haven’t gotten situated yet. But on the way here I heard that Mitt has likely won Virginia, Vermont, and Massachusetts. No surprises here. Vermont is a suburb of Massachusetts, where Romney was Governor. And in Vermont, the polls in February and early March had Romney up by 30 to 50 points. Of course, Santorum and Newt didn’t qualify for the ballot, so Romney’s strong lead was over Ron Paul.

5:17: Newt wins Georgia. No surprise there, either—he represented Georgia. They hated him less as Mr. Speaker than the rest of America.

5:21: I’m listening to the NPR live coverage but watching MSNBC on the TV.

5:22: Mitt Romney is up by only some 4,000 votes in Ohio, with 7% counted.

5:26: Newt promises $2.50 a gallon gasoline. When will Newt Gingrich promise that, as President, he will completely prevent tornado deaths?

5:29: Romney is up 74% in Massachusettes. Newt is at 4% there. In Georgia, Newt is at 48%, Romney is at 22%. Does this mean that Newt is hated outside his home turf more than Romney?

5:34: On NPR they are wondering why Santorum isn’t “cleaning up” with the Catholic vote. Why is Romney winning more of the Catholic vote [in every primary so far] than Santorum? Two words: Catholic Women.

5:36: Former Georgia congressman Bob Barr (2008 Libertarian nominee for PUSA) is on NPR. He is trying to argue that Newt’s campaign isn’t Quixotic. His argument: “Newt has big ideas.” Most Republicans view that as The Problem.

5:40: Wife #3 is introducing Newt for his Georgia victory speech. NPR doesn’t care.

5:41: Not unexpected: Rick Santorum is the projected winner of Tennessee. All but one recent poll had Santorum winning. The outlier had Romney up by +1. The real issue is why the hell didn’t Gingrich do better in a Southern state? (Answer: Americans hate Gingrich more than just about any politician.)

5:45: The NPR pundits keep talking about how Mitt Romney wins among more educated and affluent demographics, and Rick Santorum wins among poorer and less educated demographics. Answer: Santorum appeals to the Stupid.

5:49: It looks like Oklahoma is now being called for Santorum…which just goes to show. Oklahoma your NOT okay!

5:54: In another “election” of interest, Netflix has become the 30th advertiser to drop Rush Limbaugh like a hot Santorum-seasoned potato.

5:59: Is Gingrich still fucking speaking? Or is MSNBC playing the same speech over and over again? Either way, it exceeds the ideas-absorbing capacity of most Homo sapiens.

6:02: Regarding Ohio: I know a Santorum win here would maximize the primary chaos, but I’m secretly hoping for a dead tie. Does that make me a bad person?

6:06: Whooot!!! Santorum just oozed into the lead in Ohio…up by ~2500 6407 votes.

6:23: Huh…NPR is carrying Santorum’s victory speech, but they only gave a few seconds of excerpts of Newt Gingrich’s victory speech.

6:46: And NPR carries Mitt Romney’s speech. I guess Newt Gingrich is chopped liver. Hmmm…actually, that seems about right.

6:58: I love the fact that MSNBC is carrying Mitt Romney’s speech with the right hand side of the screen showing he is getting his ass wiped by Santorum in Ohio (pun not intended).

7:32: Michael Moore is gesticulating all over MSNBC. He is clean shaven tonight…clearly, that was inspired by Breitbart’s demise.

7:40: Romney is putting the squeeze on Santorum in Ohio…down to 6,000 votes from a max of 15,000.

7:46: Man…Ohio is just the pinnacle of entertainment. Mitt Romney is closing up from behind on Santorum.

8:01: I went to Ron Paul’s web site this evening, ready to make a donation. Of course, I would only consider donating in gold. After going through the long registration process, the fucking site wanted a credit card number or paypal account. What the fuck?

8:06: Ohio is now down to a difference of 1,300 or so. PLEASE people, PRAY FOR A TIE!

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Super Tuesday Drinking Liberally Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 3/6/12, 3:40 pm

Please join us on this Super Tuesday for an evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our regular starting time is 8:00pm, but tonight some of us will be there earlier to watch the election returns.

I’ll be live blogging at HA from the Ale House.


Can’t make it to Seattle? There is also a Super Tuesday meeting tonight of the Tri-Cities chapter. And on Thursday, Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.

With 231 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

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Poll Analysis: Santorum improves, Obama still leads

by Darryl — Tuesday, 3/6/12, 2:43 pm


Obama Santorum
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 338 electoral votes Mean of 200 electoral votes

Just in time for Super Tuesday, here is an analysis of the current and most recent state head-to-head polls in the race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Rick Santorum with a mean of 356 electoral votes to Santorum’s 182.

There have been 22 new polls since then. I’ve included them in a Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated election. Obama wins all 100,000. An election held now would be won by Obama with near certainty.

Obama receives (on average) 338 to Santorum’s 200 electoral votes. That’s right…Rick Santorum is doing better against Obama than he did a couple of weeks ago. He still loses, but not a badly.

What is interesting, however, is that Santorum, at 200 electoral votes, is slightly stronger against Obama than Mitt Romney with 197 electoral votes. The change reflects Romney slipping against Obama and Santorum coming in a little stronger against Obama in some states.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Poll Analysis: Obama has solid lead over Romney

by Darryl — Tuesday, 3/6/12, 2:26 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 341 electoral votes Mean of 197 electoral votes

It’s been awhile since I’ve posted one of these. That analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 331 to 207 electoral votes and with a 99.9% probability of winning.

Some 23 new polls have trickled out since then. I’ll skip the details (you can get to the polling data from the big table below). With these new polls weighing in, a Monte Carlo analysis gives Obama 100,000 wins out of 100,000 simulated elections. This implies that, in an election held now, Obama would have a near-100% chance of winning. Obama has gained +10 electoral votes for an average of 341 to Romney’s 197.

Obama likely wins the “big three,” Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, as well as Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Virginia. Still no new polls in South Carolina, so the state is still blue based on the early December poll.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

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The surge and the splat of Rick Santorum

by Darryl — Monday, 3/5/12, 1:06 pm

In the archives of electoral history, the Washington state caucus will be recognized as the event that sealed the deal for Mitt Romney’s nomination. SuperTuesday is only going to confirm what Washington settled. Romney’s double digit win was devastating to Santorum, who was up with a double-digit lead in a mid-February WA primary poll.

The confirmation will come in Ohio, where Santorum had led Romney in every one of the numerous February primary polls. That changed in March. Romney leads in two of the three polls released over the weekend. The inertia suggest to me that Romney will beat Santorum by 5 or 6 percent in Ohio on Tuesday.

The abundant polling in Ohio tells the same story that we saw in only a few Washington polls: Rick Santorum received his brief turn as the Not Mitt. You know, like Gingrich before him (who actually got two rises and falls), and Herman Cain before that, and Rick Perry before that.

ricksantorumposesRick Santorum posing for a photo that, he believes, will portray him as an ordinary American

Perry went “oops!”, Cain was too touching for a presidential candidate, and Newt Gingrich got enough media attention to remind Republicans why they hated Speaker Gingrich so damn much. So what happened to Rick Santorum?

He opened up his big fat yapper, that’s what.

Actually…it’s more like people started paying attention to the things he’s always been saying. As a consequence, he was recognized for the puritanical freak show that he is. And for what a lousy politician he is.

On the freak side, we learned that Rick REALLY does believe that sometimes rape has a sort-of up-side: the gift of a baby. We learned that he opposes contraception because it is “a license to do things in a sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be.” Yikes!

64344539Rick Santorum explaining how things are supposed to be in the sexual realm

These two statements alone make Mr. Santorum a freak or, as Esquire’s Charles Pierce puts it, “a dedicated theocratic loon”, in the eyes of most Americans. Even in the eyes of some Republicans.

And that brings us to the lousy politician side. I suspect that about half of Republicans (largely the males) don’t overly object to Santorum’s freakish obsession with controlling people’s sexual and reproductive organs. What they won’t tolerate, however, is a politician who actually talks about it. Doing so is a sign of political tone-deafness, if not stupidity. The message: Santorum hasn’t mastered the political fine arts of obfuscation and lying.

I learned, first hand, about these flaws in Santorum as one of his constituents during President Clinton’s Senate impeachment trial. I wrote a letter to Santorum as well as Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) expressing my disapproval of the House’s witch hunt, and my strong opinion that Clinton should be acquitted. I received (canned) letters back from both. Santorum’s letter attempted to justify his vote for conviction in the strongest way. He dug in.

What I realized about him is that, unlike some of his other colleagues in the Senate, Santorum actually believed in impeaching a President over a blow job. It wasn’t about political power and victory. No…it was a moral imperative to remove the sodomite for his impenitent transgressions against God. I realized he was too stupid to realize that his letter angered me to the point of triggering activism.

No, nominating a person with Santorum’s political handicaps would be an act of electoral malpractice way beyond what John McCain committed when he selected an unvetted Sarah Palin to be his 2008 running mate. Republicans aren’t going to make that mistake anytime soon.

rick-santorum-familyRick Santorum, his wife, and their totally normal home-schooled children

So…say goodbye to Rick Santorum. The freak show is over.

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Caucus results open thread

by Darryl — Saturday, 3/3/12, 1:35 pm

The G.O.P. is supposed to release caucus results at 5:00 pm, but who knows what will really happen.

Here are some sources for results:

  • AP state summary
  • AP county summary
  • HuffPo’s summary of AP results
  • WSRP Caucus Result web page
  • Twitter #WAcaucus
  • Google election results
  • CNN WA results

Feel free to share your caucusing story in the comment thread. I’ll provide some updates if and when anything interesting happens.

3:15:

Kate Martin ‏ @Gov_SVH
BREAKING: SKAGIT #Wacaucus results: Romney 41%, Santorum 21%, Paul 18%, Gingrich 17% (rest undecided/other) Total votes: 969

Mike Faulk ‏ @Mike_Faulk
OFFICIAL YAKIMA COUNTY RESULTS: Romney (394), Santorum (252), Paul (225) and Gingrich (136) #wacaucus

3:18:The APs Chris Grygiel tweets:

Chris Grygiel ‏ @ChrisGrygiel
@AP_Phuong – WA GOP Chairman Kirby Wilbur says caucus turnout could hit 80k. #wacaucus #wagop

Man…there must be a lot of Democrats showing up today. Mitt Romney sent a bold example. Or it might has something to do with no primary election this year….

3:26: Kirby Wilbur now says results will start coming in at 3:30. But the narrative so far on twitter feeds and political “chat rooms” is that thousands of people were turned from caucusing. The Ron Paul supporters have turned it into a conspiracy theory about keeping Paul supporters from participating.

3:33: Neither the WSRP page nor the AP page have any results yet. But there is this tweet (from Seattle Times’ Brian Rosenthal):

Brian M. Rosenthal ‏ @brianmrosenthal
With vote counted from 15 small counties, Romney is leading #wacaucus with 31.5%. Paul at 26.9%, Santorum 24.4% and Gingrinch 12.9%

…with the follow-up:

Brian M. Rosenthal ‏ @brianmrosenthal
These initial results probably represent only 10% or less of the #wacaucus vote, WA GOP Chairman Kirby Wilbur says

3:44: Here is a link to a photo of the initial official results:

4:33: With 12% reporting:

  • Romney 30.9%
  • Paul 27.1%
  • Santorum 24.1%
  • Gingrich 13.5%
  • Oh…man, a narrow loss by Ron Paul is going to cause an uproar among his supporters!

    5:03: Now we have 29% reporting:

  • Romney 36%
  • Paul 24%
  • Santorum 24%
  • Gingrich 12%
  • 5:13: At 31% the results are unchanged. Looking at the map of reported and unreported counties it seems pretty clear to me that Mitt Romney is going to win the beauty pageant in most of the remaining counties. (It will be interesting to see if Paul takes Watcom county—a sign that WWU students have been motivated and mobilized for Paul the way WSU (Pullman) students have been in Whitman county.)

    Anyway…I’m calling the G.O.P. caucuses for the Mittster.

    5:54: The quarter of King County that has been counted is heavily for Mitt (52% of the vote).

    So now with 42% in state-wide we have:

  • Romney 37%
  • Paul 24%
  • Santorum 24%
  • Gingrich 11%
  • Just for fun, here are some Ron Paul tweets coming across the innertubes:

    Gabe ‏ @ninjagaben
    Looks like they stole another one #wacaucus #RonPaul2012 this is bs

    Sorry, kidd-o, but a couple of crappily run caucus sites does not equal “stolen election.”

    Joe Public ‏ @Just_A_Joe
    RON PAUL WINS MAJORITY DELEGATES in #WAcaucus today!! WOOT WOOT. Runner up Mitt wins the straw/sign-in poll. #RonPaul vs #obama

    No, Joe…Washington doesn’t work like that. We won’t know who actually wins delegates until the state convention.

    6:07: Every election season Snohomish County looks more and more like King County: Romney 42.4%, Paul 24.9%, Santorum 22.4%, Gingrinch 10.2%.

    6:12: Ron Paul is speaking now. Live stream here: http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/cvplive/cvpstream1

    6:19: That’s interesting. Santorum takes Whatcom! Santorum 33%, Paul 27.8%, Romney 22%, Gingrich 11.9%.

    6:22: Kirby Wilbur is refusing to call the election. Apparently he remembers the Luke Esser debacle of 2008.

    6:29: Last Thursday I saw a pack of Lyndon LaRouche supporters set up at a table in front of Denny Hall on the UW campus. It made me wonder if some of the Ron Paul supporters, disgruntled by Mitt getting the nomination, would go on to form a Ron Paul cult akin to the LaRouchian Movement.

    6:36: Mitt Romney tweets:

    Mitt Romney ‏ @MittRomney
    I’m heartened to have won the Washington caucuses, and I thank the voters for their support today. #Mitt2012

    “Support” is, perhaps, too strong a word. Mitt won because Santorum, Gingrich and Paul are fucking freaks! Mitt wins by being the least bad of the pack.

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    The Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

    by Darryl — Friday, 3/2/12, 11:58 pm

    Thom: Who are the “sovereign citizens”?

    Obama on an all-of-the-above strategy to take control of our energy future.

    Liberal Viewer: FAUX News crops out comedy from Catholicism satire.

    Thom: The Walker recall moves ahead.

    The G.O.P. Krazy Kooky Klub:

    • Ann Telnaes: The G.O.P. sets itself on fire.
    • Mark Fiore: Leaders.
    • Pap: Santorum is living in the Dark Ages.
    • Mitt’s small donor problem.
    • Buzz60: Santorum surge and the Washington caucuses.
    • Actual Audio: Mitt Loves Michigan.
    • Stephen on Settling for Mitt.
    • How out of touch is Mitt Romney?
    • ONN: Heartbroken Santorum condemns gay marriage for two timing jerks.
    • Romney on earmarks.
    • Stephen on Jeb, Mitt and the desperate G.O.P.
    • Ed and Pap: Santorum’s anti-intellectualism.
    • What Romney will take away from women.
    • Jon on Romney wins and CNNs nerd terrarium.
    • Mitt Romney: “I’m a big believer in getting money from Washington” (via Crooks and Liars).
    • Ann Telnaes: Rick Santorum and the separation of church and state.
    • Sam Seder: Santorum’s mommy issue.
    • Jonathan Mann“Let’s Get Rick Santorum Laid”:

    Alyona: Trump says police should be more violent.

    White House: West Wing Week.

    Liberal Viewer: Money equals speech.

    Stephen: On gas and Obama.

    Andrew Breitbart dies:

    • Newsy: Breitbart dies at 43.
    • Buzz360: Breitbart is dead.
    • Sam Seder on Breitbart’s death.
    • Young Turks: The legacy left by Andrew Breitbart.
    • Sam Seder on Frum on Breitbart
    • Thom: Andrew Breitbart…the bell tolls for thee.
    • Sam Seder: The horrible legacy of Andrew.

    Kimmel on Bristol Palin’s reality show.

    Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Freedom for some religions.

    Obama speaks at a conference on conservation.

    Thomas Tolbert (New Mexico’s Jane Blaugh) is Worst Person in the World.

    Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

    Republicans Waging War on Women:

    • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Rush Limbaugh says 99% of women are sluts.
    • Eric Schwartz: STFU Rush Limbaugh.
    • Ed and Pap: Limbaugh’s lack of virility behind his hostility towards women.
    • Newsy: Limbaugh’s slut comment.
    • Women’s Health experts speak out.
    • Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) speaks out against the Blunt amendment.
    • Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) interviewed about the Blunt amendment.
    • Newsy: Is the GOP losing ground in contraception war.
    • Keith and Marcos: Rush, sluts and birth control.
    • Alyona: What are men for?
    • Jon on the blunt amendment debate
    • Ann Telnaes: Romney’s stance on the Blunt amendment .

    Newsy: Federal judge admits to forwarding racist email about Obama.

    Sam Seder: The return of “Random Rush”.

    Thom: Even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

    Bizarre: Herman Cain hates goldfish…or something.

    Bill Maher’s prediction.

    Garfunkel and Oats: “Save the Rich” video:

    Rush Limbaugh hoes his way to Worst Person in the World.

    Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

    Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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    What to expect tomorrow

    by Darryl — Friday, 3/2/12, 2:42 pm

    Current and former State Republican Party chairs have two things to say about tomorrow’s G.O.P. caucus:

    Here is current Chair Kirby Wilbur with Fox News:

    For the first time in decades, Republican caucus-goers in Washington state may have a real say in who runs for president.

    “We have always been the ugly sister who never gets invited to the dance,” Washington state Republican Party Chairman Kirby Wilbur said. “But this year we’re the princess, and we really like it.”

    And former Chair Chris Vance on KUOW:

    Vance explains the candidate who “wins” Washington will have won a non-binding straw poll of caucus-goers. […]

    But Vance says the results of the straw poll have nothing to do with which candidate gets the most delegates. And even then, in Washington, delegates aren’t committed to a candidate until they go to the state convention.

    “So there is no accurate way to know who has won any delegates from Washington state,” Vance says.

    So…tomorrow’s caucus are either: (1) The first time in forever that Washington state actually counts, or (2) a largely meaningless beauty contest.

    The truth is somewhere in between. Clearly, whoever wins the beauty contest, will get some inertia and a fundraising boost. A Romney win will help solidify the perception that Romney is inevitable. A Santorum win will throw the contest into chaos until next Tuesday, when everyone will forget us. And a Ron Paul win will make us the laughing stock of the nation for a bit.

    Who will win? Several months ago, before there was any polling, I would have said that the G.O.P. sheeple would go for the establishment candidate. In 2008 it was John McCain, who won both the primary and the caucus.

    The 2008 primary results were pretty “mainstream” looking with 49.5% going for McCain and 24.1% going to Mike Huckabee. Ron Paul squeaked out 7.7% of the vote.

    The 2008 caucus results brought out the fringe side of the state G.O.P. (and some controversy): 25.9% for McCain, 23.5% for Huckabee, and 21.6% for Ron Paul. Now you understand why Paul is focusing on caucus states….

    There have been three polls taken this year for the 2012 G.O.P. caucus contest.

    A mid-January SurveyUSA poll found Mitt leading the pack with 26%. Second was Newt Gingrich at 22% with Santorum nipping at his heels with 19%. Ron Paul squeaked out 7%.

    In mid-February, PPP released a poll that put Santorum on top with 37%, Gingrich second with 20% with Mitt nipping at his heels at 18%. Ron Paul squeaked out 9%.

    What a turn-around!

    But today PPP released a new poll showing Mitt back on top with 37% and Santorum nipping at his heels with 32%. Ron Paul has surged to 16%, and the smartest man in the world, Newt, tumbling to 13%.

    In other words…nobody has any fucking idea what is going to happen tomorrow. The volatility in the polls could be real—pollsters happened to capture the fall of Newt as well as the rise and fall of Santorum and the fall and rise of Mitt over these three polls. Or it could be issues of identifying people who will be caucusing.

    From my perspective, the uncertainty adds to the entertainment value.

    The uncertainty also provides some incentive for trouble-making—you know, Democrats pretending to be Republicans and showing up to caucus. It’s legal, even if you leave the event with the taint stain of Santorum….

    Here’s how you can participate on Saturday (I mean, you don’t want to miss out on the most important and influential Washington state beauty contest in your lifetime, now, do you?) Mitt Romney has a handy set of instructions to help you find your caucus location.

    And don’t forget to stock up on popcorn for the post-caucus show. Entertainment is what you should expect from a “beauty contest.”

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    Retirements

    by Darryl — Friday, 3/2/12, 9:02 am

    Lots of retiring politicians in the news the past two days. I’ll chalk it up to the economic rebound, but feel free to offer your own theory….

    Rep. Norm Dicks (WA-6) just announced his retirement:

    The 18-term representative, first elected in 1976, said he and his wife Suzie “have made the decision to change gears and enjoy life at a different pace.”
    […]

    Dicks is the ranking member on the powerful Appropriations Committee, and would become the panel’s chairman if Democrats won control of the House. […]

    “Norm Dicks is a true Washington state institution,” Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) said in a statement. “But more than that, he is my mentor, my friend, my advisor, my teammate, and my brother. He is our state’s quarterback here in Congress, and I can’t imagine our delegation without him.

    Yesterday we also learned of the retirements of state Rep. Mary Lou Dickerson (D-36) and state Rep. Phyllis Gutierrez-Kenney (D-46).

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    Open Thread: The GOP Gladiatorial Games

    by Darryl — Tuesday, 2/28/12, 5:32 pm

    Tonight could be rather exciting. We may see a long drawn-out battle between Mitt Romney in the Michigan primary. The Arizona primary, also tonight, will almost certainly be a win for Mitt.

    As I write this, results are coming in for Michigan. Mitt takes an early, but slight, lead.

    5:36: I’m at the Montlake Alehouse watching MSNBC with the sound down, but listening to the Politico live stream. Can’t say that I’ve ever listened to the Politico live stream before. It’s an experiment.

    5:41: Ron Paul is going into crazy-speech mode on the Politico feed.

    5:45: I hate it when politicians (like Ron Paul) say, “we’re broke!” Sorry, nutburgers, you aren’t “broke” unless your debt outweighs your assets and income. As far as I know, no state in this union has such debt. The U.S. certainly does not have that degree of debt.

    5:51: Paul’s speech was even too crazy for Politico. They cut it off and replaced it with a boring panel discussing Romney’s “foot in mouth” problem.

    5:56: Ohhh…with 10.5% reporting, Santorum leads Romney by an anal hair.

    6:00: Now 16% in and Santorum is up by 200+. Oops, now 17% and Mitt puts Santorum behind him.

    6:02: MSNBC calls it for Romney in Arizona. How ’bout that totally genuine Romney endorsement by Gov. Jan Brewer? She and Romney are so, totally, similar.

    6:09: Romney spreads it out over Santorum.

    6:13: MSNBC: “Romney wins Arizona” (where 0% have reported); “Too close to call in Michigan” (where we actually have results).

    6:20: Santorum tightens it up.

    6:26: How fucking pathetic is Newt Gingrich? Ron Paul has twice as many votes as Newt [in MI]. Oh, how the gigantic-headed mighty have fallen.

    6:38: I think the Republicans should bring Rachael Maddow in as the “White Horse” candidate.

    7:07: How fucking pathetic is Ron Paul? Newt Gingrich has twice as many votes as Paul in Arizona. Oh…how the diminutive, crazy-ass have fallen.

    7:12: Santorum is doing a speech….something about a “professional mom” and about why he married his wife, Karen (who used to shack up with the physician who delivered her). Santorum mentions that he has seven children. I guess he can do that without Bachmann in the race….

    7:18: Damn…Politico has interrupted Santorum’s speech. I really wanted to learn about what, exactly, is the issue with the parts of the U.S. that have experienced population lost. I’m guessing that it has something to do with the evils of birth control.

    7:32: Future Almost First Lady Ann Romney is speaking. She openly acknowledged Donald Trump and Kid Rock. I sense a “Dancing With the Stars” appearance for Ms. Romney.

    7:34: Mitt is the projected winner of Michigan. “What a win”, says Romney. It’s his state for fucks sake. The real story is that with 80% of the vote in, Romney is only up by 3%. The word “pathetic” comes to mind.

    9:39: Two hours later and Mitt still only has a 3% lead in Michigan.

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    Drinking Liberally — Seattle

    by Darryl — Tuesday, 2/28/12, 3:30 pm

    DLBottlePlease join us Tuesday night for another evening of electoral politics under the influence as we watch the returns arrive from the Michigan and Arizona primaries. Yes…it’s another episode of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally!

    We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our regular starting time is 8:00pm, but feel free to show up earlier than that for the earliest election returns.

    I’ll be live blogging the event.


    Can’t make it to Seattle? There are also Tuesday meetings of the Tri-Cities and Bellingham chapters. The Tacoma chapter meets this Thursday. And next Monday, there are meetings of the Olympia, the Yakima, and the South Bellevue chapters.

    With 229 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

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    Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

    by Darryl — Friday, 2/24/12, 11:56 pm

    Jimmy Fallon: Translates Obama’s Expressions (via Indecision Forever).

    Thom: Some Good, Bad and Very, Very Ugly.

    Jon does Russ Feingold.

    White House: West Wing Week, 100 episode edition:

    Ann Telnaes: SCOTUS grants stay in MT Supreme Court case.

    Thom: Does SCOTUS now recognize that Citizens United was a mistake?

    Young Turks: Stephen Colbert converts dead Mormons to Judaism.

    The G.O.P. Games:

    • Jon on the Arizona GOP debate.
    • Young Turks: Romney’s Koch brothers connection.
    • Stephen on Mitt and Donald in Michigan
    • Mitt Romney: The GOPs most extreme candidate.
    • 100 proof Mitt (via TalkingPointsMemo).
    • What’s Mitt’s explaination?
    • Stephen on Mitt’s debate performance.
    • Young Turks: Are Mitt and Ron BFF?
    • Eric Schwartz: STFU Newt Gingrich.
    • Young Turks: Newt would ignore our U.S. military commanders.
    • Testing Newt’s theory about gun racks in Volts. (h/t Michael.
    • Bill Maher: On Newt.
    • Ann Telnaes: Rick Sanoturm’s environmental beliefs.
    • Actual Audio: Rick Santorum vs the French Revolution
    • Bill Maher with some Rick Santorum tweets.
    • Eric Schwartz: STFU Santorum.
    • Bill Maher: On Santorum.
    • Young Turks: Paul and Romney crushes Santorum.

    Mark Fiore: Little Green Man.

    Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

    Roy Zimmerman: Another verse for “Vote Republican”:

    Stephen fires back at Nancy Pelosi’s attack ad.

    Obama does Detroit.

    First congressional district candidates speak to Watcom Democrats.

    Sam Seder: Who wrote the drone legislation?

    Jon: The terrifying prospects of a second Obama term.

    ONN: Senate session interrupted by wailing of Ted Kennedy’s ghost.

    Alyona: Nuclear fear mongering.

    Virginia’s “State Rape” and Other Fronts in the Republican War on Women:

    • Jon: Like a “TSA pat-down inside their vagina.” (via TalkingPointsMemo).
    • Young Turks: Abstinence for married couples.
    • One Minute News: IN Republican refuses to honor Girl Scouts.
    • Alyona: What are women for?
    • Ann Telnaes: No longer the party of Lincoln.
    • SNL: Really? Really! (via WaPo).
    • Young Turks: Most Americans are pro-birth control.
    • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Radicalized Girl Scouts.
    • Jon: an all male panel’s right to choose for a woman

    Thom: More of the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

    Stephen does Nancy.

    Comcast Newsmakers interviews Gov. Christine Gregoire.

    Sam Seder: The Heartland Institute documents.

    WI state Rep. Joel Kleefisch (R-38th) is Worst Person in the World.

    Obama visits Boeing workers:

    Shuster: Andrew Breitbart is a hypocrite for his silence on rape allegation against James O’Keefe.

    Young Turks: David Koch admits buying Wisconsin.

    Key & Peele onObama’s anger management.

    Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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    Poll: No problems for Maria

    by Darryl — Friday, 2/24/12, 9:56 am

    Just in case we weren’t quit sure…Public Policy Polling has done a poll in the Senate race between Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) and three potential opponents. The poll surveyed 1,264 Washington voters (2.8% MOE) from 16th to the 19th of February.

    State Sen. Michael Baumgartner is Cantwell’s only declared opponent, but PPP also included match-ups between Cantwell and Seattle Port Commission President Bill Bryant and real estate salesman, former two-time gubernatorial and one-time senatorial candidate Dino Rossi. A possible entry into the race by Bryant has launched a minor feud within the state G.O.P.

    Here are the PPP poll findings:

    • Cantwell (D) 51% v. Baumgartner (R) 36%
    • Cantwell (D) 50% v. Bryant (R) 36%
    • Cantwell (D) 53% v. Rossi (R) 41%

    For job performance, Cantwell receives 47% approval and 38% disapproval for a net of +9.

    All three of Cantwell’s potential opponents are underwater in favorability. Nevertheless, the measure is meaningless for Baumgartner and Bryant who get “Not sure” from 78% and 85% of respondents respectively. Dino Rossi, for whom 88% of respondents have formed an opinion, receives 38% favorable to 50% unfavorable.

    That’s right…Dino Rossi, the man who been the standard bearer of the Washington state Republican party torch since 2004 (and pitchfork since 2008) has a net favorability of -12.

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    • Wednesday Open Thread Wednesday, 5/7/25
    • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 5/6/25
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