It’s another exciting evening of the Republican Reality Show, and we’ll be livebloggin’ it from the Montlake Ale House—at least to the extent that the news cycle, media availability and social environment allow it.

Tonight’s episode takes place in Mississippi and Alabama, where primary elections are happening, and Hawaii and American Samoa, where caucuses are held. Here are some details:

• Alabama: The state has 50 delegates and splits them proportionately. Something like eight polls have been done in Alabama just this month. The very first one was won by Rick Santorum. Gingrich has squeaked out a lead in two. Romney has led in five polls, although all five polls come from the Alabama Education Association (which may or may not be relevant). It seems like almost anything can go in Alabama. If I had to bet, I’d go with Mitt, but fingers crossed for someone crazier….
• American Samoa: The polls are…. Oh, Wait…there are no polls in American Samoa. I mean, who the fuck cares about American Samoa? Mitt Romney does, that’s who! He LOVES the place. The Oceans are the right height. He loves the little bits of land that dot the place. The owner of Samoa is a personal friend of his. It’s his favorite Girl Scout cookie. And he loves the nine delegates the joint could bring him. Oh…and he loves the Mormons that make up 1/4 of the population. Yeah, Mitt won’t go without at least one “victory” tonight. More insights can be found here.
• Hawaii: The candidates used the caucus as an excuse to send their kids on a Hawaiian junket. Romney dominated his opponents at 24% in the only Hawaii poll. Unfortunately, that poll was taken in October. And Herman Cain beat Romney at 36%. So who the fuck knows. My hunch is that Santorum and Gingrich are not very appealing to Hawaiians (there’s a Hawaiian pizza joke in there somewhere). Ron Paul will try to usurp the caucus process…and will fail because Hawaii’s G.O.P. caucus is only open to registered Republicans. My hunch is that Romney is most likely walk away with the lion’s share of Hawaii’s 17 proportionally allocated delegates.
• Mississippi: Forty delegates are at stake in Mississippi and only a couple of recent polls go on, both taken this month. One poll has Romney up by +8 and a more recent poll has Newt leading by +2 Overall…it looks like a toss-up. Let’s hope so.

So, there you have it. Almost anything goes in the South, but Romney takes the South Pacific.

Go to town in the comment threads.
[Read more…]

Please join us tonight for an evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. We’ll be watching the latest episode of the G.O.P. Reality Show as the returns come in from the Michigan and Arizona primaries, and the Hawaii and American Samoa caucuses.

Seattle DL meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our regular starting time is 8:00pm, but feel free to show up earlier than that to catch the earliest election returns.

I’ll be live blogging the results right here from the Montlake Ale House.

Can’t make it to Seattle? You’re in luck…there are DLs meeting all over Washington state. Tonight there are also meetings of the Tri-Cities, Bellingham, and Vancouver, WA chapters. The Tacoma chapter meets this Thursday. And next Monday there are meetings of the Woodinville, Olympia, Yakima, and Shelton chapters.

With 231 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

Dick Cheney has cancelled an appearance scheduled for April in Toronto out of concerns for his safety:

Cheney, whom the protesters denounced as a war criminal, was slated to talk about his experiences in office and the current American political situation at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre on April 24.

What kind of Canuckian WMD will keep Cheney in his undisclosed location, secure and cozy in his bunker?

Last Sept. 26, Cheney’s appearance in Vancouver was marred by demonstrators who blocked the entrances to the exclusive Vancouver Club.

The activists, who at one point scuffled with police, called for Cheney’s arrest for war crimes and booed guests as they arrived at the $500-a-ticket dinner.

One man was arrested for choking a club staff member.

Ruppert said the “thugs” put everyone at risk and forced Cheney to remain inside the club for seven hours until police were able to disperse the protesters and deem it safe for him to leave.

Oh. My. God. Trapped inside a club for seven hour!

That must have been torture!

The charitable thing to says is that they are the latest casualties of the right-wing political propaganda mill. But, you know, that kind of explanation needlessly feeds a Culture of Victimhood. They wouldn’t approve.

So let’s just come out and call ’em stupid. “They” are about half of Republican primary voters in Mississippi and Alabama.

Public Policy Polling polled these folks on, among other things, what they think Obama’s religion is, Christian, Muslim, or “unsure.” The result are, um…peculiar (via HuffPo):

Alabama survey of 600 likely GOP primary voters found that only 14 percent placed the president [as a Christian], while 45 percent said he is a Muslim and 41 percent answered that they were not sure.

A similar picture emerged in Mississippi. Of 656 likely GOP primary voters surveyed, 12 percent said Obama was a Christian, 52 percent classified him as a Muslim, and 36 percent fell in the “not sure” category.

It’s pitiful! On the positive side, this should get rid of Obama’s Rev. Jeremiah Wright “problem”.

When I see stupidity of this magnitude, it makes me think that Michele Bachmann’s warnings about Obama’s reeducation camps was really a big ol’ cry for help….

Obama: Manufacturing.

The Republican War on Women™:

• Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Bachmann’s fear of a one-child policy
• Newsy: VA Governor signs pre-abortion ultrasound bill
• Young Turks: Abortion tax.
• Ed and Pap: Limbaugh is mentally impotent
• Ann Telnaes: Gov. McDonnell (R-VA) signs ultrasound bill.
• Young Turks: Megyn Kelly accused Georgetown student Sandra Fluke of acting like a victim.
• Rush Limbaugh sings an apology.
• Keith on Rush.
• Actual Audio: Rush v. Women
• Jon interviews Planned Parenthood’s Cecile Richards
• Jonathan Mann: Rush Limbaugh Death Star Song
• Sam Seder: Limbaugh attacks women, this time over being educated.
• Ann Telnaes: Limbaugh Apologizes.
• Thom: Time to protect Rush.
• Young Turks: Are Bill Maher’s jokes about Sarah Palin as offensive as Rush Limbaugh?
• Alyona’s Tool Time Award: The Republican Purity Pledge.
• Ed and Pap: Limbaugh’s comments divide GOP.

Joe the Plumber’s bizarre CNN interview.

Alyona: How to FOIA yourself.

Mark Fiore: On The Table.

State Sen. Hatfield (D-19 LD) on the “Roadkill Caucus”.

Sam Seder: Michele Bachmann fears U.S. one child policy.

Hug-Gate!!!!

• Buzz60: Hannity’s Breitbart video.
• Jon on the video of Obama that they don’t want you to see.
• Sam Seder: Obama + Harvard + Hug = Breitbart’s BIG SCANDAL
• Young Turks: The secret Breitbart tapes.

White House: West Wing Week.

Thom: Even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Ann Telnaes: AG Eric Holder on targeted killings.

Jonathan Mann: KONY2012 and AFRICOM Song:

Young Turks: Obama understands the American people don’t want war in Iran.

Thom: Republicans propped up by Daddy Warbucks.

The Republican Primary ClusterFuck:

• Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Super Tuesday.
• 1MinuteNews: Super Tuesday recap.
• Funny or Die: Double negative political ad.
• Pap: Why GOP voters hate their candidates.
• Mitt Romney: Against individual mandates except when he’s for them.
• Sam Seder: Ann Romney doesn’t feel rich.
• Young Turks: Can Mitt get enough delegates?
• Mitt Romney’s distortions about Obama on Israel.
• Stephen on Mitt’s Super Tuesday failure.
• Jon: Mitt’s underwhelming Super Tuesday wins.
• ONN: Romney flaunts his wealth to impress voters
• Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Santorum’s Housing Problem
• Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Santorum highlights.
• Newt Gingrich: Newt Gingrich is the Pro Wrestler of Politics
• Newsy: calls mount for Gingrich to drop out.
• Alyona: Ron Paul’s biggest donor.

Thom: The Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ugly.

Obama: Americas Energy.

Jonathan Mann: Super Tuesday Song.

Stephen: The DOJ’s license to kill.

Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) questions Secretary Chu on Biofuels and Hanford Land Transfer.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

It’s hard to believe, but another initiative from initiative peddler slut, Tim Eyman, has been struck down by the state Supreme Court:

Local voters can’t ban red-light cameras by initiative, the state Supreme Court said Thursday in a ruling that dampens efforts around the state to banish the cameras.

The court ruled that the Legislature gave “exclusive power” to local city and county councils to decide whether to use the cameras.

This brings up the question, why is Tim Eyman dabbling in pedestrian, local issues like red light cameras?

The battle against the intersection cameras is organized and cheered by Tim Eyman, who over the past decade has made a career of pushing anti-tax initiative campaigns. Red-light cameras are a new cause for him, and one he believes has widespread appeal beyond party affiliation.

“Appeal beyond party affiliation”? Huh…it sounds to me like money is drying up for Eyman—his wealthy right-wing Johns have grown weary of dumping boat-loads of money into his efforts only to experience failure at the ballot or have his initiatives overturned by the courts.

Eyman is forced to take it to the streets and sell himself on the local street corners. You know…in the red light districts.

Game on! Have at it in the comment thread.

5:11 (PDT): Okay…so I just got here and I haven’t gotten situated yet. But on the way here I heard that Mitt has likely won Virginia, Vermont, and Massachusetts. No surprises here. Vermont is a suburb of Massachusetts, where Romney was Governor. And in Vermont, the polls in February and early March had Romney up by 30 to 50 points. Of course, Santorum and Newt didn’t qualify for the ballot, so Romney’s strong lead was over Ron Paul.

5:17: Newt wins Georgia. No surprise there, either—he represented Georgia. They hated him less as Mr. Speaker than the rest of America.

5:21: I’m listening to the NPR live coverage but watching MSNBC on the TV.

5:22: Mitt Romney is up by only some 4,000 votes in Ohio, with 7% counted.

5:26: Newt promises $2.50 a gallon gasoline. When will Newt Gingrich promise that, as President, he will completely prevent tornado deaths?

5:29: Romney is up 74% in Massachusettes. Newt is at 4% there. In Georgia, Newt is at 48%, Romney is at 22%. Does this mean that Newt is hated outside his home turf more than Romney?

5:34: On NPR they are wondering why Santorum isn’t “cleaning up” with the Catholic vote. Why is Romney winning more of the Catholic vote [in every primary so far] than Santorum? Two words: Catholic Women.

5:36: Former Georgia congressman Bob Barr (2008 Libertarian nominee for PUSA) is on NPR. He is trying to argue that Newt’s campaign isn’t Quixotic. His argument: “Newt has big ideas.” Most Republicans view that as The Problem.

5:40: Wife #3 is introducing Newt for his Georgia victory speech. NPR doesn’t care.

5:41: Not unexpected: Rick Santorum is the projected winner of Tennessee. All but one recent poll had Santorum winning. The outlier had Romney up by +1. The real issue is why the hell didn’t Gingrich do better in a Southern state? (Answer: Americans hate Gingrich more than just about any politician.)

5:45: The NPR pundits keep talking about how Mitt Romney wins among more educated and affluent demographics, and Rick Santorum wins among poorer and less educated demographics. Answer: Santorum appeals to the Stupid.

5:49: It looks like Oklahoma is now being called for Santorum…which just goes to show. Oklahoma your NOT okay!

5:54: In another “election” of interest, Netflix has become the 30th advertiser to drop Rush Limbaugh like a hot Santorum-seasoned potato.

5:59: Is Gingrich still fucking speaking? Or is MSNBC playing the same speech over and over again? Either way, it exceeds the ideas-absorbing capacity of most Homo sapiens.

6:02: Regarding Ohio: I know a Santorum win here would maximize the primary chaos, but I’m secretly hoping for a dead tie. Does that make me a bad person?

6:06: Whooot!!! Santorum just oozed into the lead in Ohio…up by ~2500 6407 votes.

6:23: Huh…NPR is carrying Santorum’s victory speech, but they only gave a few seconds of excerpts of Newt Gingrich’s victory speech.

6:46: And NPR carries Mitt Romney’s speech. I guess Newt Gingrich is chopped liver. Hmmm…actually, that seems about right.

6:58: I love the fact that MSNBC is carrying Mitt Romney’s speech with the right hand side of the screen showing he is getting his ass wiped by Santorum in Ohio (pun not intended).

7:32: Michael Moore is gesticulating all over MSNBC. He is clean shaven tonight…clearly, that was inspired by Breitbart’s demise.

7:40: Romney is putting the squeeze on Santorum in Ohio…down to 6,000 votes from a max of 15,000.

7:46: Man…Ohio is just the pinnacle of entertainment. Mitt Romney is closing up from behind on Santorum.

8:01: I went to Ron Paul’s web site this evening, ready to make a donation. Of course, I would only consider donating in gold. After going through the long registration process, the fucking site wanted a credit card number or paypal account. What the fuck?

8:06: Ohio is now down to a difference of 1,300 or so. PLEASE people, PRAY FOR A TIE!

Please join us on this Super Tuesday for an evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our regular starting time is 8:00pm, but tonight some of us will be there earlier to watch the election returns.

I’ll be live blogging at HA from the Ale House.

Can’t make it to Seattle? There is also a Super Tuesday meeting tonight of the Tri-Cities chapter. And on Thursday, Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.

With 231 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

In the archives of electoral history, the Washington state caucus will be recognized as the event that sealed the deal for Mitt Romney’s nomination. SuperTuesday is only going to confirm what Washington settled. Romney’s double digit win was devastating to Santorum, who was up with a double-digit lead in a mid-February WA primary poll.

The confirmation will come in Ohio, where Santorum had led Romney in every one of the numerous February primary polls. That changed in March. Romney leads in two of the three polls released over the weekend. The inertia suggest to me that Romney will beat Santorum by 5 or 6 percent in Ohio on Tuesday.

The abundant polling in Ohio tells the same story that we saw in only a few Washington polls: Rick Santorum received his brief turn as the Not Mitt. You know, like Gingrich before him (who actually got two rises and falls), and Herman Cain before that, and Rick Perry before that.

Perry went “oops!”, Cain was too touching for a presidential candidate, and Newt Gingrich got enough media attention to remind Republicans why they hated Speaker Gingrich so damn much. So what happened to Rick Santorum?

He opened up his big fat yapper, that’s what.

Actually…it’s more like people started paying attention to the things he’s always been saying. As a consequence, he was recognized for the puritanical freak show that he is. And for what a lousy politician he is.

On the freak side, we learned that Rick REALLY does believe that sometimes rape has a sort-of up-side: the gift of a baby. We learned that he opposes contraception because it is “a license to do things in a sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be.” Yikes!

These two statements alone make Mr. Santorum a freak or, as Esquire’s Charles Pierce puts it, “a dedicated theocratic loon”, in the eyes of most Americans. Even in the eyes of some Republicans.

And that brings us to the lousy politician side. I suspect that about half of Republicans (largely the males) don’t overly object to Santorum’s freakish obsession with controlling people’s sexual and reproductive organs. What they won’t tolerate, however, is a politician who actually talks about it. Doing so is a sign of political tone-deafness, if not stupidity. The message: Santorum hasn’t mastered the political fine arts of obfuscation and lying.

I learned, first hand, about these flaws in Santorum as one of his constituents during President Clinton’s Senate impeachment trial. I wrote a letter to Santorum as well as Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) expressing my disapproval of the House’s witch hunt, and my strong opinion that Clinton should be acquitted. I received (canned) letters back from both. Santorum’s letter attempted to justify his vote for conviction in the strongest way. He dug in.

What I realized about him is that, unlike some of his other colleagues in the Senate, Santorum actually believed in impeaching a President over a blow job. It wasn’t about political power and victory. No…it was a moral imperative to remove the sodomite for his impenitent transgressions against God. I realized he was too stupid to realize that his letter angered me to the point of triggering activism.

No, nominating a person with Santorum’s political handicaps would be an act of electoral malpractice way beyond what John McCain committed when he selected an unvetted Sarah Palin to be his 2008 running mate. Republicans aren’t going to make that mistake anytime soon.

So…say goodbye to Rick Santorum. The freak show is over.

The G.O.P. is supposed to release caucus results at 5:00 pm, but who knows what will really happen.

Here are some sources for results:

• AP state summary
• AP county summary
• HuffPo’s summary of AP results
• WSRP Caucus Result web page
• Twitter #WAcaucus
• Google election results
• CNN WA results

Feel free to share your caucusing story in the comment thread. I’ll provide some updates if and when anything interesting happens.

3:15:

Kate Martin ‏ @Gov_SVH
BREAKING: SKAGIT #Wacaucus results: Romney 41%, Santorum 21%, Paul 18%, Gingrich 17% (rest undecided/other) Total votes: 969

Mike Faulk ‏ @Mike_Faulk
OFFICIAL YAKIMA COUNTY RESULTS: Romney (394), Santorum (252), Paul (225) and Gingrich (136) #wacaucus

3:18:The APs Chris Grygiel tweets:

Chris Grygiel ‏ @ChrisGrygiel
@AP_Phuong – WA GOP Chairman Kirby Wilbur says caucus turnout could hit 80k. #wacaucus #wagop

Man…there must be a lot of Democrats showing up today. Mitt Romney sent a bold example. Or it might has something to do with no primary election this year….

3:26: Kirby Wilbur now says results will start coming in at 3:30. But the narrative so far on twitter feeds and political “chat rooms” is that thousands of people were turned from caucusing. The Ron Paul supporters have turned it into a conspiracy theory about keeping Paul supporters from participating.

3:33: Neither the WSRP page nor the AP page have any results yet. But there is this tweet (from Seattle Times’ Brian Rosenthal):

Brian M. Rosenthal ‏ @brianmrosenthal
With vote counted from 15 small counties, Romney is leading #wacaucus with 31.5%. Paul at 26.9%, Santorum 24.4% and Gingrinch 12.9%

…with the follow-up:

Brian M. Rosenthal ‏ @brianmrosenthal
These initial results probably represent only 10% or less of the #wacaucus vote, WA GOP Chairman Kirby Wilbur says

3:44: Here is a link to a photo of the initial official results:

4:33: With 12% reporting:

Romney 30.9%

Paul 27.1%

Santorum 24.1%

Gingrich 13.5%

Oh…man, a narrow loss by Ron Paul is going to cause an uproar among his supporters!

5:03: Now we have 29% reporting:

Romney 36%

Paul 24%

Santorum 24%

Gingrich 12%

5:13: At 31% the results are unchanged. Looking at the map of reported and unreported counties it seems pretty clear to me that Mitt Romney is going to win the beauty pageant in most of the remaining counties. (It will be interesting to see if Paul takes Watcom county—a sign that WWU students have been motivated and mobilized for Paul the way WSU (Pullman) students have been in Whitman county.)

Anyway…I’m calling the G.O.P. caucuses for the Mittster.

5:54: The quarter of King County that has been counted is heavily for Mitt (52% of the vote).

So now with 42% in state-wide we have:

Romney 37%

Paul 24%

Santorum 24%

Gingrich 11%

Just for fun, here are some Ron Paul tweets coming across the innertubes:

Gabe ‏ @ninjagaben
Looks like they stole another one #wacaucus #RonPaul2012 this is bs

Sorry, kidd-o, but a couple of crappily run caucus sites does not equal “stolen election.”

Joe Public ‏ @Just_A_Joe
RON PAUL WINS MAJORITY DELEGATES in #WAcaucus today!! WOOT WOOT. Runner up Mitt wins the straw/sign-in poll. #RonPaul vs #obama

No, Joe…Washington doesn’t work like that. We won’t know who actually wins delegates until the state convention.

6:07: Every election season Snohomish County looks more and more like King County: Romney 42.4%, Paul 24.9%, Santorum 22.4%, Gingrinch 10.2%.

6:12: Ron Paul is speaking now. Live stream here: http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/cvplive/cvpstream1

6:19: That’s interesting. Santorum takes Whatcom! Santorum 33%, Paul 27.8%, Romney 22%, Gingrich 11.9%.

6:22: Kirby Wilbur is refusing to call the election. Apparently he remembers the Luke Esser debacle of 2008.

6:29: Last Thursday I saw a pack of Lyndon LaRouche supporters set up at a table in front of Denny Hall on the UW campus. It made me wonder if some of the Ron Paul supporters, disgruntled by Mitt getting the nomination, would go on to form a Ron Paul cult akin to the LaRouchian Movement.

6:36: Mitt Romney tweets:

Mitt Romney ‏ @MittRomney
I’m heartened to have won the Washington caucuses, and I thank the voters for their support today. #Mitt2012

“Support” is, perhaps, too strong a word. Mitt won because Santorum, Gingrich and Paul are fucking freaks! Mitt wins by being the least bad of the pack.

Thom: Who are the “sovereign citizens”?

Obama on an all-of-the-above strategy to take control of our energy future.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News crops out comedy from Catholicism satire.

Thom: The Walker recall moves ahead.

The G.O.P. Krazy Kooky Klub:

• Ann Telnaes: The G.O.P. sets itself on fire.
• Mark Fiore: Leaders.
• Pap: Santorum is living in the Dark Ages.
• Mitt’s small donor problem.
• Buzz60: Santorum surge and the Washington caucuses.
• Actual Audio: Mitt Loves Michigan.
• Stephen on Settling for Mitt.
• How out of touch is Mitt Romney?
• ONN: Heartbroken Santorum condemns gay marriage for two timing jerks.
• Romney on earmarks.
• Stephen on Jeb, Mitt and the desperate G.O.P.
• Ed and Pap: Santorum’s anti-intellectualism.
• What Romney will take away from women.
• Jon on Romney wins and CNNs nerd terrarium.
• Mitt Romney: “I’m a big believer in getting money from Washington” (via Crooks and Liars).
• Ann Telnaes: Rick Santorum and the separation of church and state.
• Sam Seder: Santorum’s mommy issue.
• Jonathan Mann“Let’s Get Rick Santorum Laid”:

Alyona: Trump says police should be more violent.

White House: West Wing Week.

Liberal Viewer: Money equals speech.

Stephen: On gas and Obama.

Andrew Breitbart dies:

• Newsy: Breitbart dies at 43.
• Buzz360: Breitbart is dead.
• Sam Seder on Breitbart’s death.
• Young Turks: The legacy left by Andrew Breitbart.
• Sam Seder on Frum on Breitbart
• Thom: Andrew Breitbart…the bell tolls for thee.
• Sam Seder: The horrible legacy of Andrew.

Kimmel on Bristol Palin’s reality show.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Freedom for some religions.

Obama speaks at a conference on conservation.

Thomas Tolbert (New Mexico’s Jane Blaugh) is Worst Person in the World.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Republicans Waging War on Women:

• Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Rush Limbaugh says 99% of women are sluts.
• Eric Schwartz: STFU Rush Limbaugh.
• Ed and Pap: Limbaugh’s lack of virility behind his hostility towards women.
• Newsy: Limbaugh’s slut comment.
• Women’s Health experts speak out.
  
• Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) speaks out against the Blunt amendment.
• Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) interviewed about the Blunt amendment.
• Newsy: Is the GOP losing ground in contraception war.
• Keith and Marcos: Rush, sluts and birth control.
• Alyona: What are men for?
• Jon on the blunt amendment debate
• Ann Telnaes: Romney’s stance on the Blunt amendment .

Newsy: Federal judge admits to forwarding racist email about Obama.

Sam Seder: The return of “Random Rush”.

Thom: Even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Bizarre: Herman Cain hates goldfish…or something.

Bill Maher’s prediction.

Garfunkel and Oats: “Save the Rich” video:

Rush Limbaugh hoes his way to Worst Person in the World.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Current and former State Republican Party chairs have two things to say about tomorrow’s G.O.P. caucus:

Here is current Chair Kirby Wilbur with Fox News:

For the first time in decades, Republican caucus-goers in Washington state may have a real say in who runs for president.

“We have always been the ugly sister who never gets invited to the dance,” Washington state Republican Party Chairman Kirby Wilbur said. “But this year we’re the princess, and we really like it.”

And former Chair Chris Vance on KUOW:

Vance explains the candidate who “wins” Washington will have won a non-binding straw poll of caucus-goers. […]

But Vance says the results of the straw poll have nothing to do with which candidate gets the most delegates. And even then, in Washington, delegates aren’t committed to a candidate until they go to the state convention.

“So there is no accurate way to know who has won any delegates from Washington state,” Vance says.

So…tomorrow’s caucus are either: (1) The first time in forever that Washington state actually counts, or (2) a largely meaningless beauty contest.

The truth is somewhere in between. Clearly, whoever wins the beauty contest, will get some inertia and a fundraising boost. A Romney win will help solidify the perception that Romney is inevitable. A Santorum win will throw the contest into chaos until next Tuesday, when everyone will forget us. And a Ron Paul win will make us the laughing stock of the nation for a bit.

Who will win? Several months ago, before there was any polling, I would have said that the G.O.P. sheeple would go for the establishment candidate. In 2008 it was John McCain, who won both the primary and the caucus.

The 2008 primary results were pretty “mainstream” looking with 49.5% going for McCain and 24.1% going to Mike Huckabee. Ron Paul squeaked out 7.7% of the vote.

The 2008 caucus results brought out the fringe side of the state G.O.P. (and some controversy): 25.9% for McCain, 23.5% for Huckabee, and 21.6% for Ron Paul. Now you understand why Paul is focusing on caucus states….

There have been three polls taken this year for the 2012 G.O.P. caucus contest.

A mid-January SurveyUSA poll found Mitt leading the pack with 26%. Second was Newt Gingrich at 22% with Santorum nipping at his heels with 19%. Ron Paul squeaked out 7%.

In mid-February, PPP released a poll that put Santorum on top with 37%, Gingrich second with 20% with Mitt nipping at his heels at 18%. Ron Paul squeaked out 9%.

What a turn-around!

But today PPP released a new poll showing Mitt back on top with 37% and Santorum nipping at his heels with 32%. Ron Paul has surged to 16%, and the smartest man in the world, Newt, tumbling to 13%.

In other words…nobody has any fucking idea what is going to happen tomorrow. The volatility in the polls could be real—pollsters happened to capture the fall of Newt as well as the rise and fall of Santorum and the fall and rise of Mitt over these three polls. Or it could be issues of identifying people who will be caucusing.

From my perspective, the uncertainty adds to the entertainment value.

The uncertainty also provides some incentive for trouble-making—you know, Democrats pretending to be Republicans and showing up to caucus. It’s legal, even if you leave the event with the taint stain of Santorum….

Here’s how you can participate on Saturday (I mean, you don’t want to miss out on the most important and influential Washington state beauty contest in your lifetime, now, do you?) Mitt Romney has a handy set of instructions to help you find your caucus location.

And don’t forget to stock up on popcorn for the post-caucus show. Entertainment is what you should expect from a “beauty contest.”