Poll Analysis: Romney slips

ObamaRomney
99.7% probability of winning 0.3% probability of winning
Mean of 326 electoral votesMean of 212 electoral votes

Ten days ago, Mitt Romney was on a roll. He had increased his probability of beating President Obama in a hypothetical election held then from 0.4% to 0.8%, and he gained in expected electoral votes up to 225. That was last week. This week, Romney slips.

There have been 18 new polls released to weigh in on the race:

startendsample%%%
stpolldatedatesizeMOEORdiff
AZPPP04-Jun05-Jun7913.54649R+3
COPPP14-Jun17-Jun7993.54942O+7
FLQuinnipiac12-Jun18-Jun16972.44642O+4
IAWeAskAmerica18-Jun18-Jun10863.04544O+1
MEWBUR13-Jun14-Jun5064.44834O+14
MIMitchell18-Jun18-Jun7503.64746O+1
MIWeAskAmerica18-Jun18-Jun10103.14345R+2
MIRasmussen14-Jun14-Jun5004.55042O+8
MIBaydoun12-Jun12-Jun17832.346.945.5O+1.4
MTRasmussen18-Jun18-Jun4004.54251R+9
NEPNA11-Jun13-Jun6014052R+12
NVPPP07-Jun10-Jun5004.44842O+6
NHRasmussen20-Jun20-Jun5004.54843O+5
NJEagleton-Rutgers31-May04-Jun10652.95633O+23
WAPPP14-Jun17-Jun10733.05441O+13
WAElway13-Jun16-Jun4085.04941O+8
WIMarquette13-Jun15-Jun5944.14943O+6
WIRasmussen12-Jun12-Jun5004.54447R+3

New England states—Romney’s home turf—don’t seem particularly sold on the G.O.P. nominee. If he had dreams of taking Maine, this poll dashes them. Obama leads by +14%. In fact, Obama has had a good lead in every poll since last October. New Hampshire has Obama up by +5% over Romney. Obama has now led in three consecutive polls in the state going back to April.

Nebraska is exactly what we would expect, but there are a few other interesting polls out of the Midwest. Iowa gives Obama a slim lead over Romney by +1%, but polls have been bouncing between Obama and Romney.

In Wisconsin, Obama leads by +6% and trails by -3% in the two new polls. Overall, it sure looks like Obama has been slipping as the election season progresses:
ObamaRomney22May12-22Jun12Wisconsin

Four polls have been released for Michigan in the past 10 days. Obama gets a +1% and +8% in two, and Romney gets a +1.4% and +2% in two. The weight of the six polls taken over the past month give the advantage to Obama, who would be expected to win the state with a 90% probability right now. What is clear, is that Obama’s big lead early in the year has shrunk:

ObamaRomney22May12-22Jun12Michigan

The mountain states show mixed results. Montana is still solid for Romney. Arizona gives Romney a frail +3% lead over Obama, and the collection of recent polls gives Romney the slightest edge in the state. The total polling history also suggests Romney has held a small lead for a long time:
ObamaRomney22May12-22Jun12Arizona

Obama dominates in Colorado with +7%. But the other recent polling suggests a tight race in the state (even though Romney has yet to lead in a single poll):

ObamaRomney22May12-22Jun12Colorado

The Nevada poll has Obama up by +6% over Romney. So far, Romney has only led in one poll, and that was back in April…of 2011:

ObamaRomney22May12-22Jun12Nevada

Recent Florida polls have bounced from Romeny to Obama. This time Obama takes a +4% lead. Looking at the recent polling results, Florida is truly a toss-up:
ObamaRomney22May12-22Jun12Florida

No surprises out of New Jersey, where Obama holds double-digit lead.

Obama leads in both new Washington polls, with one single and one double digit lead.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,660 times and Romney wins 340 times (including the 73 ties).

In an election held now, Obama would be expected to win with a 99.7% (+0.5%) probability, and he would receive (on average) 326 (+13) to Romney’s 212 (-13) electoral votes.

Electoral College Map

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLousianaMaineMarylandMassachusettesMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Electoral College Map

GeorgiaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoDelawareConnecticutFloridaMississippiAlabamaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 328 electoral votes with a 2.66% probability
  • 317 electoral votes with a 2.52% probability
  • 329 electoral votes with a 2.50% probability
  • 324 electoral votes with a 2.37% probability
  • 334 electoral votes with a 2.36% probability
  • 323 electoral votes with a 2.35% probability
  • 333 electoral votes with a 2.34% probability
  • 338 electoral votes with a 2.29% probability
  • 335 electoral votes with a 2.22% probability
  • 319 electoral votes with a 2.17% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 99.7%, Romney wins 0.3%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 326.3 (19.6)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 211.7 (19.6)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 327 (286, 363)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 211 (175, 252)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

ThresholdSafe+ Strong+ Leans+ Weak
Safe Obama165
Strong Obama83248
Leans Obama6969317
Weak Obama666323
Weak Romney111215
Leans Romney5454214
Strong Romney121160
Safe Romney39

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

00EC#Total%%ObamaRomney
84VotespollsVotesObamaRomney% wins% wins
AL91*754 37.8 62.2 0.0100.0
AK30*(0)(100)
AZ111752 48.4 51.6 27.0 73.0
AR61*679 36.8 63.2 0.0100.0
CA5522033 61.2 38.8100.0 0.0
CO953180 51.8 48.2 91.9 8.1
CT711239 56.8 43.2100.0 0.0
DE30(100)(0)
DC30(100)(0)
FL2932674 51.3 48.7 83.6 16.4
GA161404 43.3 56.7 2.9 97.1
HI41*517 64.8 35.2100.0 0.0
ID40*(0)(100)
IL201*546 61.5 38.5100.0 0.0
IN111*447 45.0 55.0 7.2 92.8
IA632338 50.1 49.9 53.3 46.7
KS61*442 45.0 55.0 7.3 92.7
KY81*528 45.5 54.5 7.1 92.9
LA81*542 41.1 58.9 0.1 99.9
ME21415 58.6 41.4 99.2 0.8
ME111*488 64.8 35.2100.0 0.0
ME211*421 53.7 46.3 85.1 14.9
MD101*792 62.4 37.6100.0 0.0
MA112973 59.7 40.3100.0 0.0
MI1664790 51.4 48.6 90.3 9.7
MN101904 58.1 41.9100.0 0.0
MS61*717 40.0 60.0 0.0100.0
MO102991 48.5 51.5 26.1 73.9
MT31372 45.2 54.8 9.3 90.7
NE21553 43.4 56.6 1.6 98.4
NE111*389 45.5 54.5 9.8 90.2
NE211*252 49.6 50.4 47.5 52.5
NE311*284 35.9 64.1 0.0100.0
NV621386 51.8 48.2 83.1 16.9
NH41455 52.7 47.3 79.6 20.4
NJ141947 62.9 37.1100.0 0.0
NM51*417 57.8 42.2 98.9 1.1
NY2922066 63.8 36.2100.0 0.0
NC151762 49.0 51.0 33.3 66.7
ND31569 42.9 57.1 0.8 99.2
OH1821008 48.6 51.4 26.8 73.2
OK71*448 30.4 69.6 0.0100.0
OR71*1327 52.0 48.0 85.2 14.8
PA2021204 54.6 45.4 98.6 1.4
RI41*495 59.4 40.6 99.8 0.2
SC91*1833 51.7 48.3 85.5 14.5
SD31*442 44.3 55.7 4.3 95.7
TN111*654 46.0 54.0 7.3 92.7
TX381*460 38.9 61.1 0.0100.0
UT61*688 33.0 67.0 0.0100.0
VT31*528 67.8 32.2100.0 0.0
VA1332181 51.9 48.1 89.2 10.8
WA1231841 56.2 43.8100.0 0.0
WV51*373 40.8 59.2 0.6 99.4
WI1042746 52.5 47.5 97.0 3.0
WY30(0)(100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 2

    rhp6033 spews:

    Gee, wasn’t it just yesterday that some news outlets were claiming that Romney was essentially “even” with the President due to the faltering economic recovery? I think Daryl’s right, but over the next few months we will probably be getting competing poll numbers bandied about by both sides in a mash-up attempt to obtain the “peer pressure” advantage.

  2. 3

    rhp6033 spews:

    Sometimes it helps, of course, if the news media isn’t content to let Romney’s lies go unreported. For example, on NPR yesterday evening, they played a rather long clip of Romney complaining about the President not passing immigration reform, then the commentator pointed out that it took a lot of chutzpah (his word) for Romney to say that, knowing full well that the Dream Act hadn’t passed due to Republican obstructionism in the Senate. In another story, a commentator pointed out that the Democrats didn’t hold a super-majoirty in both houses for two years – they held a sixty-seat majority only for a four or five months, due to the delay in getting Frankin confirmed and seated, followed shortly thereafter by the death of Edward Kennedy.

    Clarifications such as that will encourage indedendent thought and diminish the Republicans attempt to use “peer pressure” (i.e., selective pollling) to get voters to vote Republican.

  3. 4

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Oh my! Rmoney’s odds have fallen back to bank-interest levels. Does this mean voters aren’t flocking to the job-destroying vulture capitalist?

  4. 6

    Serial Conservative spews:

    @ 2

    Romney IS essentially even. Today’s Gallup tracking poll has it Romney 46, Obama 45.

    Darryl’s poll data includes results as much as one month old. Given Obama’s horrible June, a lot of the slide he has experienced either isn’t reflected in the poll because a lot of states haven’t been polled recently, or if they have been polled whatever slide Obama has experienced is averaged with his late May poll results.

    Enjoy this result but don’t place too much emphasis on it. Obama’s got plenty of reason for concern going forward, including his hemorrhaging of white support (which probably won’t be buffered by an increased minority turnout):

    http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....14579.html

    and the need to resort to awfully creepy tactics to get the money to flow in:

    http://hotair.com/archives/201.....-campaign/

    It’s apparently tin-cup time in the Obama campaign:

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/.....27015.html

  5. 7

    Liberal Scientist is a slut who occasionally wears a hoodie spews:

    Bob appears to be in hiding this morning.

    He was doing his usual weasel act over on the other thread this morning, spewing shit and seeing what stuck, sunning sway when confronted.

    He must be off right now signing checks and creating jobs

    *rolls eyes*

  6. 8

    Liberal Scientist is a slut who occasionally wears a hoodie spews:

    Darryl’s poll data includes results as much as one month old. Given Obama’s horrible …………..spin spin spin spin spin spin spin……

    *rolls eyes*

  7. 9

    Liberal Scientist is a slut who occasionally wears a hoodie spews:

    Notice how when confronted over on the other thread serialbub runs over here and starts afresh.

    God these weasely republicans are tiresome. Trite, snide, dishonest.

  8. 10

    Serial Conservative spews:

    @ 9

    Yeah, that’s right, you guys were so scary I jumped ship to a new thread.

    You got me. I despair for my future.

    Now get off your ass and go donate to The One. Don’t let Him have to tell you again.

  9. 11

    Dorky Dorkman spews:

    re 10: And why don’t you refrain from donating to the Republicans.

    They don’t need your money anyway because they don’t represent you or intend to represent you — ever. You are just a useful idiot.

  10. 12

    Serial Conservative spews:

    @ 12

    In response I’l just say that since I don’t see my interests having been represented over the past three years, I don’t think I’ll be any worse off with Romney in the White House.

    In fact, I’m pretty sure of it.

    You have a nice day, Dorky. Don’t forget to donate! The One is counting on you.

  11. 14

    Dorky Dorkman spews:

    re 12: “12. Serial Conservative spews:

    @ 12

    In response I’l just say that since I don’t see my interests having been represented over the past three blah blah blah….”

    Nitwit.

  12. 17

    spews:

    12. Serial Conservative spews:

    @ 12

    In response I’l just say that since I don’t see my interests having been represented over the past three years, I don’t think I’ll be any worse off with Romney in the White House.

    In fact, I’m pretty sure of it.

    You have a nice day, Dorky. Don’t forget to donate! The One is counting on you.

    06/22/2012 at 3:02 pm

    So this asswipe is a 1%-er? Don’t make me laugh.

  13. 19

    spews:

    Serial Conservative @ 6,

    “Romney IS essentially even. Today’s Gallup tracking poll has it Romney 46, Obama 45.”

    But unfortunately for Romney, we don’t elect President by popular vote, which is what the Gallup poll captures.

    That is, a national popular vote might result in a tie right now, but the electoral college election would almost certainly go to Obama….

  14. 20

    spews:

    Serial Conservative @ 6,

    “Darryl’s poll data includes results as much as one month old.”

    On the other hand, the Gallup poll only surveyed 2,200 people. My results are based on 52,246 responses….

    “Given Obama’s horrible June, a lot of the slide he has experienced either isn’t reflected in the poll because a lot of states haven’t been polled recently, or if they have been polled whatever slide Obama has experienced is averaged with his late May poll results.”

    But, but, but…the states that HAVE been polled recently suggest Obama has been gaining over the past 10 days. Go figger!?!

  15. 21

    Liberal Scientist is a slut who occasionally wears a hoodie spews:

    Thank you for your patience, Darryl.

  16. 22

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @6 You don’t know very much about politics, do you? It’s always tin cup time in all campaigns.

  17. 23

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @12 “In response I’l just say that since I don’t see my interests having been represented over the past three years …”

    Could that possibly be because your candidate lost in 2008?

  18. 24

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    “Some 32 states … are below the national average on jobless rates, according to the BLS. Ohio has seen its rate drop 10 months in a row to a current 7.3 percent.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/47816490/page/2/

    Roger Rabbit Commentary: Looks like Rmoney will have to run on a platform of “Obama is a failure because he’s creating jobs.”

  19. 25

    Serial Conservative spews:

    @ 19

    I was responding to a commenter, not arguing whether a national poll is representative when a state electoral count and not popular count is used to decide an election.

    @ 20

    Yup. Noticed that as well. I don’t have an explanation. Haven’t looked carefully enough to come up with a reason. I have a hard time believing that Obama is gaining with all that badness that has befallen him this month. Romney’s negatives don’t seem to be increasing so he may be losing some prior independents. Do you have an explanation, Figgerer Darryl?

  20. 26

    Scripture spews:

    Just for yucks, take a look at the 2000 Bush v. Gore electoral map.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....e_map.html

    IF NH had gone to Gore, he would have won.
    Of course it doesn’t apply to this election as demographics change…however, history is always worthy of a quick peek.
    I know it’s painful for you to re-live the agony of 2000 and the woes of the goofiest and greatest enviro-scammer in the history of the Universe..but give it a shot.

  21. 27

    Grego spews:

    Obama simply cannot get beyond 45-48% approval in National Polls. Darryl is right, Obama could still win the Electoral College vote, lose the National Popular Vote and then he is President. But if Obama loses by 3-4% National, the odds of that happening are miniscule considering the overwhelming support Obama gets in California and NY. Concede those 2 states to Obama, pull out Texas for Romney and Obama is very unpopular in the remaining 47.
    It’s fun playing around with polls and statistics. However, it will come down to momentum in November. And keep in mind the undecideds historically break against the incumbent when momentum is poor.
    Plus I read some of Darryl’s prior comments which are spot on. This is about a “snapshot” in time. A compilation of many polls, some of which have little or no past credibility.
    But it’s still fun.
    Kind of like arguing who will win the World Series or Super Bowl this year and going thru lots of stats to prove your case.
    Have fun.

  22. 28

    Grego spews:

    Someone else posted the RealClearPolitics Electoral Map which shows Obama up 221-170 with these toss-up states.
    Arizona (11)
    Colorado (9)
    Florida (29)
    Iowa (6)
    Michigan (16)
    Missouri (10)
    Nevada (6)
    New Hampshire (4)
    North Carolina (15)
    Ohio (18)
    Virginia (13)
    Wisconsin (10)

    I think this is pretty much right on. If Romney doesn’t carry Ohio & Florida, he has virtually no chance. That’s why Rubio is a great choice. But even if Romney carries these, he still has lots of work to do. I certainly agree the incumbent will be difficult to beat. But taking a step back, a ,3% chance seems mighty low.
    Does anyone care to give me 333-1 odds today??

    I’ll put up $100. If Obama wins, you get it.
    If I win, you owe me $33,300.
    That’s how oddsmaking works, right?
    Any takers??

  23. 29

    czechsaaz spews:

    @27, fantasy world on the 47?

    Obama’s not popular in WA. Well maybe not the part of the state that can’t carry an election.

    Not popular in MA? How, pray tell, Does polling show 248 electoral vote safe or strong for Obama, but he’s deeply unpopular in 47 states?

  24. 30

    Serial Conservative spews:

    @ 26

    “IF NH had gone to Gore, he would have won.”

    Hey, if TN had gone to Gore, he would have won.

    That’s TN, the state Al Gore, Jr. represented as a US Senator. The state Al Gore, Sr. represented as a US Senator.

    If you can’t win your home state (perhaps this applies to Romney as well), maybe you don’t deserve to be president.

  25. 31

    David spews:

    @30

    “If you can’t win your home state (perhaps this applies to Romney as well), maybe you don’t deserve to be president.”

    Glad we both agree Romney does not deserve to be President.