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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle

Please join us tonight for an evening of electoral politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Tonight, of course, is recall night in Wisconsin, a race that could make Gov. Scott Walker (R) the third governor in U.S. history to be recalled.

The latest polls showing Walker leading Mayor Tom Barrett (D-Milwaukee) with a small to modest lead. There are five other recall races going on in Wisconsin, as well.

Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) faces a challenge from Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin President Mahlon Mitchell (D). The latest poll show Kleefisch with a small lead.

Three Republican state Senators are facing recall elections, and Democrats need to win a single seat to take control of the Senate. State Sen. Terry Moulton (R-Chippewa Falls) is being challenged by Rep. Kristin Dexter (D). State Sen. Van Wanggaard (R-Racine) is being challenged by former state Sen. John Lehman. Senate Leader Scott Fitzgerald (R-Clyman) is being challenged by Lori Compas (D). The first two of these races are considered competitive.

Finally, an open Senate seat is up for grabs after state Sen. Pam Galloway (R-Wausau) resigned in the face of a recall election. The contest for the seat is between state Rep. Donna Seidel (D) and state Rep. Jerry Petrowski (R).

Wisconsin polls close at 6 pm (PT).

There are also elections tonight in New Jersey (5 pm PT), South Dakota (6 pm PT), New Mexico (6 pm PT), Montana (7 pm PT) and California (8 pm PT).

Drinking Liberally Seattle meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm, but show up early to watch the returns….

I’ll be live-blogging the elections from DL.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? There are other DL meetings this week. The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night. Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets this Thursday.

With 230 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and three more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Ann Telnaes: SuperPAC influence.

Thom with The Good, the Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Darcy Burner and Gen. Paul Eaton (ret): Responsible plan to end the war in Afghanistan:

Ann Telnaes: Memorial Day, 2012.

Illinois Rep. has a hissy fit over something or another.

Thom: Anti-Obama ad written and produced by FAUX “GOP TV” News?

Mr. Romney’s Run:

Obama celebrates Pride Month.

Maddow: Boehner playing politics instead of working on jobs.

WA State Republicans: “We’ve been Pfluged!

Stephanie Miller with Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA): Checking in on the Affordable Health Care Act:

Baby Congress.

Wisconsin:

Jon does First Lady Michelle Obama.

President Obama honors Robert Allen Zimmerman (a.k.a. Bob Dylan) and some other folks.

Pulling out of Iraq.

Liberal Viewer: Sheriff scams Sacramento out of jail money.

Mark Fiore: Too big to fail.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: MO Rep. Todd Akkin says voters shouldn’t pick Senators.

Sam Seder: Rush’s clueless food rant.

DOMA

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Will GOP let NC Sink?

Ann Telnaes: Protecting U.S. babies.

Music Video: Obama was Foreign Born:

White House: West Wing Week.

Young Turks: Bizarre Republican violence.

Thom: Something rotten in Michigan.

Jon on NY soda ban.

Newsy: George Zimmerman’s bond revoked.

Florida is Up to Its Tricks Again:

Maddow: Montana is the best chance of saving US democracy from ‘Citizens United’.

Young Turks: Teabagger Rep. Joe Walsh says crazy, racist things.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll in the First

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Survey USA released a new poll for the new WA first congressional district today. The poll of 456 voters likely to vote in the August primary, and 661 registered voters (for a general election match-up), was taken on the 29th and 30th of May, surveys the open congressional seat and more.

For the Washington primary, the top two winners are Republican John Koster and Democrat Darcy Burner. Burner leads the crowded Democratic field by +10%:

  • John Koster (R) 46%
  • Darcy Burner (D) 19%
  • Undecided 16%
  • Laura Ruderman (D) 6%
  • Suzan DelBene (D) 4%
  • Steve Hobbs (D) 4%
  • Larry Ishmael (I) 4%
  • Darshan Rauniyar (D) 1%

The sample size for the primary poll is rather small. Nevertheless, we can make some inference about who will be Koster’s opponent in November. Darcy Burner has a little over 1/2 the “votes” (88 of 173) among those who chose someone other than Koster. A Monte Carlo analyses gives Burner a 56.3% probability of advancing to the general election. There is a 43.7% chance that Ruderman, DelBene, Hobbs, Ishmael or Rauniyar will advance instead of Burner.

The not-so-good news for Democrats comes from the head-to-head results of each Democrat against Koster:

  • Koster leads Burner 48% to 37%
  • Koster leads DelBene 49% to 32%
  • Koster leads Ruderman 49% to 32%
  • Koster leads Hobbs 47% to 31%
  • Koster leads Rauniyar 50% to 28%

In all cases, the poll results suggest that Koster has something over a 95% probability of winning. And that is not good news for Democrats.

There were a couple of other races that shed light on this poll. Mitt Romney leads President Obama in the district 45% to 44%. And Rob McKenna leads Jay Inslee in the district 52% to 38%. Wow…this is the same 1st district that I live in?!?

In fact, these numbers are so surprising that the election sleuths at Kos Elections (formerly Swing State Project) find the poll results implausible:

If you read a little further down, though, the poll’s credibility takes a major hit, when you see the presidential numbers: Romney leads Obama 45-44. This is a district that, adjusted for the new boundaries, went for Obama 56-42 over McCain. This is also the state’s median district (Obama went 57% in all of Washington in ’08), so Rob McKenna should probably be leading by a couple points in the gubernatorial race, but instead he’s up 52-38 over Jay Inslee. Either this sample is way off, or else Obama and Inslee are finding some way to get, say, 120% of the vote in WA-07 in statewide polls to compensate for such a steep falloff in Dem fortunes in the new 1st.

These are all good points. But I’d sure like to see some more independent polling for the district before I chalk this one up to being an outlier….

Poll Analysis: McKenna leads Inslee in May

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A new poll came out yesterday in the gubernatorial race between Jay Inslee (D) and Rob McKenna (R) yesterday. The poll was by Seattle-based Strategies 360, and showed McKenna leading Inslee 43% to 39%. The poll was taken from 22nd through the 24th of May on a sample of 500 likely voters (MOE 4.4%).

Before I get into the analysis, I have two confessions.

First, I ignored the Strategies 360 poll from last September. Basically, I was told they were working as a partisan (Democratic) pollster, and for that reason failed my inclusion criteria. When I saw the results yesterday, I got curious and called their VP of Polling and Research, Kevin Ingham. He set the record straight. They don’t work for candidates, and their election polls are not done on behalf of a partisan client. Okay….they’re in!

The second confession is that there was another poll in May that I previously missed. It came out while I was off-line travelling for a couple of days, and by the time I stumbled across the poll it was old. That poll was from SurveyUSA and had McKenna leading Inslee 40% to 38%. The poll was taken on May 8th and 9th on a sample of 557 individuals (MOE 4.2%).

With two polls for May, one taken early, one later, I’ll analyze them together using a Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections.

Between the two polls, there were 1057 “votes” of which 844 went for either McKenna or Inslee. Inslee received 407 “votes” (38.5%) and McKenna received 438 (41.4%) “votes.” The simulated elections were won by Inslee 221,876 times and McKenna, 770,944 times. Here is the distribution of election outcomes from the simulations:

TwoMayPolls

The results suggest that, if the election was held in May, Inslee would have had a 22.3% probability of winning the election, and McKenna would have won with a 77.7% probability. By standard statistical inference, McKenna’s lead is “not significant.” He’s have to have a 95% or greater probability of winning for a “significant” lead. Still…I’d rather have a 78% probability than 22% probability of winning….

The larger trend in the election can be seen from the collection of polls:

GenericCongress01May12-31May12Washington

A reasonable read of the raw polling data is that McKenna maintains a small lead over Inslee at this point in the race.

Poll Analysis: Romney slips a bit

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Obama Romney
99.9% probability of winning 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 326 electoral votes Mean of 212 electoral votes

My previous analysis of state head-to-head polls showed President Barack Obama leading Romney with a mean of 323 to 215 electoral votes. Obama had a 99.5% probability of winning; Romney had a 0.5% chance.

Six new polls have been released since then. I’ve also fixed a few minor errors (largely in older polls) thanks to some more help from Sam Minter:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA LA Times 17-May 21-May 1002 3.5 56 37 O+19
CO PNA/Keating 21-May 24-May 601 4.0 48 44 O+4
MI PPP 24-May 27-May 600 4.4 53 39 O+14
MO PPP 24-May 27-May 602 4.0 45 44 O+1
WA Strategies 360 24-May 27-May 500 4.4 51 40 O+11
WI Marquette 23-May 26-May 625 — 51.2 43.0 O+8.2

That’s a rather blue collection of new polls.

Both of the current California polls have double-digit leads for Obama.

In Colorado, Obama squeaks out +4% over Romney, whereas the previous poll had them tied. Overall the trend in Colorado polls looks favorable for Obama:
ObamaRomney30Apr12-30May12Colorado

Michigan gives Obama a remarkable +14% lead over Romney. One has to go back eight polls, to November 2011, to find a poll in which Romney is leading. Obama has managed to turn Michigan around, from toss-up to solid Obama, over the past six months:

ObamaRomney30Apr12-30May12Michigan

In Missouri, Obama has a meager +1% lead over Romney. Up to now, Missouri has given a small edge to Romney over Obama. My hunch is that further polling would put the state back into Romney territory. Here are the polls to date:

ObamaRomney30Apr12-30May12Missouri

The new Washington poll puts Obama at +11% over Romney. Both current WA polls give Obama double digit leads.

We have six current polls in Wisconsin. And all but one goes to Obama. With today’s poll, the trend cannot be considered good news for Romney:

ObamaRomney30Apr12-30May12Wisconsin

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,941 times and Romney wins 59 times (including the 13 ties). Obama gains three electoral votes for an average of 326 to Romney’s 212. If the election was held now, Obama would have a 99.9% probability of beating Romney, based on the polling data.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Another Eyman Initiative ruled unconstitutional

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Via Slog:

Tim Eyman’s 2/3 majority requirement for raising new state revenue is unconstitutional, according to King County Superior Court Judge Bruce E. Heller.

The law enacted through Initiative 1053 is ruled unconstitutional; it directly contradicts the Washington State Constitution, Article II, Section 22:

No bill shall become a law unless on its final passage the vote be taken by yeas and nays, the names of the members voting for and against the same be entered on the journal of each house, and a majority of the members elected to each house be recorded thereon as voting in its favor.

Of course, the ruling will be appealed and, ultimately, settled by the Supreme Court. With any luck, the Supreme Court won’t be able to weasel its way out of a substantive ruling this time….

The next question: If I-1053 is unconstitutional, what should be the fate of its latest incarnation, I-1185, should it get enough signatures to qualify for the ballot? Will AG Rob McKenna sue Eyman to keep an unconstitutional initiative off the ballot?

You know, like AG Christine Gregoire did with Goldy’s Horses’ Ass initiative.

Judge: Rob McKenna is off the hook because his lies were political

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Rob McKenna is being sued by some 90 women. The reason is his participation in the Attorneys General lawsuit against the 2009 Patient Protection and Affordable Care act (i.e. “Obamacare”). The group argues that:

[…] McKenna violated his ethical duties as an attorney by pushing for the entire health-care law to be overturned; that McKenna should be forced to file a corrective pleading with the US Supreme Court saying that he only opposes the individual mandate aspect of the health care law, which requires every US citizen to get insurance; and that the court should find McKenna guilty of issuing “false and misleading statements” about the health care law because he claimed that his lawsuit was aimed not at overturning the entire act, but only at eliminating the individual mandate.

McKenna has been lying to Washingtonians. He has repeatedly claimed that he supports some aspects of the law, all the while participating in the effort to overturn the entire law.

Today we learn that King County Superior Court judge Sharon Armstrong will not issue preliminary injunction directing McKenna to fix the inconsistencies between his public and legal positions by amending his Supreme Court briefings.

The meme in the mainstream media seems to chalk the ruling up as a perliminary victory for McKenna. But Publicola political uberwonks Erica C. Barnett and Josh Feit (now at Crosscut) catch the more nuanced meaning of the ruling—the courts won’t judge McKenna for his political lies:

Although King County Superior Court Judge Sharon Armstrong’s rejection of a request to enjoin McKenna from arguing against the federal health care law certainly looks like a win for McKenna, the ruling effectively finds that, contrary to his public statements, he has in his legal motions consistently opposed the entire Affordable Care Act, not just the requirement that every American buy health insurance. The judge specifically said that McKenna’s public statements were “political statements” that had to be judged in the political realm rather than the courtroom. As to McKenna’s going along with other states’ attorneys general in seeking to have the law overturned in its entirety, Armstrong said the court lacked authority to second-guess whether it was a wise legal strategy.

In other words, Judge Armstrong leaves it to the voters of Washington to judge McKenna for his political lies.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottlePlease join us tonight for an evening of politics, conversation and birth certificate scrutiny over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm, but some folks show up earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night as well. Also next Monday, the Olympia, Yakima, and South Bellevue chapters of Drinking Liberally meet.

With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and three more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Young Turks: Americans are fundamentally progressive says new poll.

Thom: The myth of the 1% job creator.

Sam Seder: Bigoted Pastor wants to round-up gays & wait for them to die.

Kimmel: Mitt’s first day in office.

Actual Audio: Mitt on Bain.

Young Turks: Barry Obama & The “Choom Gang”:

Thom with the Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ugly.

Sam Seder: Iowa G.O.P. platform is insane.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Missouri experiments with execution.

A A rallying call for Democrats.

Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Memorializin’ the War on Women.

Young Turks: Which Presidents have higher spending growth, Democrats or Republicans?

Thom: Why Joe Biden needs to blurt out a defense of pot.

Sam Seder: Rush Limbaugh gets creepy with 14-year-old girl.

Ann Telnaes: Pelvic Politics.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Young Turks: Pres. Obama is right about same sex marriage.

Letters to the President: Tanisha’s Story.

Pap: The worst Republican Party in history.

Sam Seder: FAUX & Friends nutty ideas about food stamps and the unemployed.

Stephanie Miller: Lessons Romney needs in education.

And the Drone Goes On:

Thom with Nick Hanauer: Is Romney a preditor?

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Stigmatizing Poor People is Good?!

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Wisconsin edition.

Maddow: The Reverse-Robin-Hood Republicans.

Mitt Romney: Not a job creator.

Sam Seder: Heartland institute gets blowback over Unabomber/Climate Change denial campaign.

Alyona: Romney’s education plan FAIL:

Fred Karger for President.

White House: West Wing Week.

Obama and the fight for LGBT rights.

Greenman: How to talk to an Ostrich.

Maddow: Anti-abortion activists terrorize doctors in Georgia.

Thom with even more of the Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Alabama doubles down on undocumented immigrants.

The Neo-Racists Birfers:

Buzz 60: Summer of presidential politics.

Obama speaks to Iowans:

Young Turks: Clinton poses with porn stars.

Ann Telnaes: Physical limits in Afghanistan.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: Romney wins some, loses some

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Obama Romney
99.5% probability of winning 0.5% probability of winning
Mean of 323 electoral votes Mean of 215 electoral votes

There were lots of new polls released in the two days since my previous analysis:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ PPP 17-May 20-May 500 4.4 43 50 R+7
CA PPIC 14-May 20-May 894 — 50 39 O+11
FL Marist 17-May 20-May 1078 3.0 45 40 O+5
GA InsiderAdvantage 22-May 22-May 438 — 39.9 52.3 R+12.4
MD PPP 14-May 21-May 852 3.4 58 35 O+23
MA Suffolk 20-May 22-May 600 — 59.3 34.0 O+25.3
NC Civitas 19-May 20-May 600 4.0 45 47 R+2
OH Marist 17-May 20-May 1103 3.0 45 40 O+5
VA Marist 17-May 20-May 1076 3.0 46 42 O+4
WI St Norbert College 17-May 22-May 406 5.0 49 43 O+6
WI Reason-Rupe 14-May 18-May 609 4.0 46 36 O+10

The good news for Romney is that Arizona gives him a modest +7% lead over Obama. And Romney will need it, now that Secretary of State Ken Bennett (R-AZ) has concluded that Obama really was born in Hawaii. Although there is an occasional poll showing Obama ahead, the larger trend shows the state in Romney’s column:

ObamaRomney25Apr12-25May12Arizona
Other good news for Romney is that North Carolina has him up by +2% over Obama, and he takes three of the four May polls. The larger trend has favored Obama since late 2010, but things are clearly changing in the state:

ObamaRomney25Apr12-25May12North Carolina

Florida is up to its old tricks of bouncing between candidates. After being down -6% in the previous poll, Obama scores +5% over Romeny. The overall trend in FL looks more favorable to Obama, but that can clearly change:

ObamaRomney25Apr12-25May12Florida

In good news for Obama, we finally get the first poll out of Maryland. Obama has a dominating +23% lead over Romney.

Obama takes another Ohio poll with a +5% lead over Romney. Obama has now led in the last ten Ohio polls, dating back to late February.

Virginia gives Obama +4% over Romney. The recent trend still favors Obama in the state, but there is at least a hint that the state is swinging toward Romney:

ObamaRomney25Apr12-25May12Virginia

Both Wisconsin polls give Obama the lead over Romney, and solidify his lead in the state.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,494 times and Romney wins 506 times (including the 51 ties). Obama receives (on average) 323 to Romney’s 215 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 99.5% probability of winning and Romney, a 0.5% probability of winning.

The probability is a slight improvement for Romney, up from a 0.2%. On the other hand, Romney’s expected electoral vote total drops from 220 to 215, as Obama’s increases from 318 to 323.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Poll Analysis: Romney gains ever so slightly on Obama

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Obama Romney
99.8% probability of winning 0.2% probability of winning
Mean of 318 electoral votes Mean of 220 electoral votes

My analysis from last Friday showed President Barack Obama leading Romney with an average of 333 to 205 electoral votes, and a 99.9% probability of winning an election held now.

Over the last few days, a bunch of new state head-to-head polls have been released. In addition, I’ve learned about a couple of recent polls that I had missed. I owe a big thanks to Sam Minter, who also aggregates and analyzes state head-to-head polls in this race. Sam has spotted a couple of my errors over the past two months, and has let me know about some recent polls I was missing.

Here are the new polls added for today’s analysis:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
FL Quinnipiac 15-May 21-May 1722 2.4 41 47 R+6
MA Rasmussen 07-May 07-May 500 4.5 56 35 O+21
MI Glengariff Group 10-May 11-May 600 4.0 45.1 39.5 O+5.6
NJ Quinnipiac 09-May 14-May 1582 2.5 49 39 O+10
NC SurveyUSA 18-May 21-May 524 4.4 44.5 45.2 R+0.8
OH Quinnipiac 02-May 07-May 1069 3.0 45 44 O+1
OK SoonerPoll 07-May 10-May 504 4.4 27 62 R+35
PA Rasmussen 21-May 21-May 500 4.5 47 41 O+6
PA PPP 17-May 20-May 671 3.8 50 42 O+8
TN Vanderbilt Poll 02-May 09-May 752 4.0 40 47 R+7
TX U Texas 07-May 13-May 511 4.3 35 55 R+20
VT Castleton Poll 07-May 16-May 607 4.0 59 28 O+31

The bad news for Obama is the Florida poll that has Romney up by +6%. Romney has taken three of the last four polls in Florida, and would have a 91% probability of taking the state in an election now.

The other new results favorable to Romney come from red states. I should point out that Texas shows a remarkable +20 for Romney using the poll’s Likely Voter results. As DailyKos’ Steve Singiser points out, the definition the pollster used for likely voters is rather dubious. The poll’s registered voter results show a +8 lead for Romney. (I always take the likely voter over registered voter results but, either way, Romney will most likely take Texas.)

There is more bad than good news for Romney. First, he barely leads Obama (by 0.8%) in North Carolina. Over the past month, Obama and Romney have split the four NC polls. Right now Obama wins about two thirds of the simulated elections, but the trend probably favors Romney. Still…shouldn’t Romney be much stronger in NC? (Oh…and let’s not discuss the odd SC result…again. Just keep on praying for a new poll in the state.)

More bad news for Romney is that Obama dominates in Michigan by +5.6%. This makes six consecutive polls in favor of Obama in MI, all taken this year.

The terrible news for Romney is Ohio, where Obama continues to lead, albeit by only +1%, but Obama leads in all three “current” polls and the long-term trend isn’t suggesting any changes soon:

ObamaRomney23Apr12-23May12Ohio

And the super horrible news for Romney is Pennsylvania. Obama leads by +6% and +8% in the two new polls. Using all three current polls, Obama wins the state 99.7% of the time. And, like Ohio, the trend offers no hints at a Romney takeover:
ObamaRomney23Apr12-23May12Pennsylvania

How do things stack up now? After simulating 100,000 elections using the state head-to-head polls, Obama wins 99,761 times and Romney wins 239 times (including the 101 ties). Obama receives (on average) 318 to Romney’s 220 electoral votes. If the election was held now, Obama would win with a 99.8% probability.

Romney has gained, on average, +15 electoral votes compared to last week’s analysis, but that only translates into a one tenth of one percent increase in his chances of winning.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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Please join us tonight for another evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet this (and every) Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm, but a few folks show up earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Tonight the Tri-Cities and Bellingham chapters also meet. The Burien chapter meets on Wednesday, and the Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday.

With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and three more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter close by.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Thom: Can Romney win by lying?

Obama on protecting a woman’s right to choose.

Newsy: Catholic church is investigating girl scouts.

Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Mitt Romney: Hot problems:

Thom: The right’s obsession with female body parts (i.e. the Republican War on Women™).

Jen: Shadowy organizations work to suppress the vote.

Daily Show on Space.

Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) and Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D) team up to do comedy.

Stephanie Cutter: Get the facts on Karl Rove’s BS.

Hey, good luck getting laid, Wisconsin State Senator Glenn Grothman.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News fucks up on “liberal intolerance”.

Romney economics and the Bankruptcy and bailouts at GST Steel.

ONN: Republicans stalling Obama’s agenda by speaking & moving in slow motion.

Daily Show: Energy.

The Bane of Romney’s existence.

The Partisans: ZOMBIE AYN RAND:

Jen with Reich: The odd case of Romney praising Clinton.

Obama: One item on the #CongressToDoList.

Mitt Romney: “I stand by what I said, whatever it was.”

Gay Politics:

Obama’s accomplishments on Higher education.

Newsy: Minority births outnumber white births for first time in history.

The GOP primary candidate performances embodied as butt plugs:

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Ann Telnaes: Firing up Romney.

Sam Seder: Someone gives Teh Birfers a bone.

ONN: Alabama hosts first desegregated mass suicide.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Bill-O’s “Income inequality is bull”..

Ed and Pap: Obama campaign finally gets tough on Romney.

The Wright Stuff:

Maddow Show: Ugly echoes of 2008 encroach on Romney message.

Young Turks: ‘Professor Cenk’ breaks down Bain Capital’s buyout of GST.

The Daily Show on mobile devices.

Sam Seder: Mitt will “stand by” what he said.

Thom: Why Common Cause is suing the U.S. Senate.

Jonathan Mann: Mitt Romney’s Mirthless Laugh:

Actual Audio: Mitt Romney on his high school prank.

Sam Seder: DOJ says it is your Constitutional right to video tape the police.

Pap: Republicans are the losers in the War on Terror.

Thom: Even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

White House: West Wing Week.

Maddow Show: Improving economy undermining Romney’s message.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: Obama v. Romney

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It’s been a long time since I done these analyses—just over a month. I quit doing them after Mitt Romney became the presumptive nominee. I pointed out that:

The effective end of the Republican primary this week should mark a change in the dynamics of this race. Expect Romney’s chances to improve considerably as new polls roll in. The full effect may not be seen for another month (depending on the frequency and diversity of polling).

Since Pres. Obama was beating Romney in 100% of the simulated elections, with an average electoral vote total of 347 to 191, it seemed silly to keep doing these analyses until the race looked a bit more “post-primary.”

Since that last analysis, 50 new polls have come out, covering 26 different states. (Still no new S.C. poll…sorry.) I guess it’s time to see how Obama and Romney stack up.

First, I should mention that the National polls make the race appear to be very close. The Real Clear Politics average of national polls has Obama leading Romney by +1.7%. The problem is, the national polls reflect the national vote. And as we remember all too well from 2000, the national vote does not always go the way of the Electoral College.

That is why I do these analyses. I collect only the state head-to-head polls and use them to infer the winner of the Electoral College. So, with an (apparently) close popular vote, how does the election look?

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,890 times and Romney wins 110 times (and we even give him the 12 ties). Obama receives (on average) 333 to Romney’s 205 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would be expected to win with a 99.9% probability to Romney’s 0.1% probability.

Huh…the “post-primary” election has hardly changed.

Obama Romney
99.9% probability of winning 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 333 electoral votes Mean of 205 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
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