Two polls in one day! And another one supposedly on the way.

The second WA-1 poll today comes from PPP on behalf of Democracy For America, a group that backs Darcy Burner, but is “independent”. Take that as you wish.

The poll surveyed 521 likely primary voters (about a 4.3% MOE) on the 16th and 17th of July.

Results:

• Koster (R) 48%
• Burner (D) 17%
• DelBene (D) 13%
• Hobbs (D) 5%
• Ruderman (D) 4%
• Rauniyar (D) 1%
• Ishmael (I) 1%
• Undecided 11%

This poll is consistent with the previous poll in showing Darcy Burner with a small lead over Susan DelBene. It also shows Rudderman in 4th place among the Democrats. It is pretty clear that, of the Democrats, Hobbs, Ruderman, and Rauniyar are not much of a factor.

This poll differs from the previous one in showing a more difficult general election for Democrats, since Republican John Koster is at 48% with 11% undecided. While Republicans are more likely to be be decided in this particular race, it doesn’t take many to push Koster over 50%.

Given this poll and the previous on, I’d say the general election is a dead heat.

Update: More poll details here.

Here are some notes:

The survey found 34% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 28% Independent/Other. A weighted average of the earlier Strategies 360 poll and this poll gives:

• Democrats 38.4%
• Republicans 39.0%
• Other 22.6%

Close, huh?

Interestingly, in this poll Darcy Burner gets the lion’s share of Democratic voters at 40% compared to 23% for DelBene. But DelBene gets 14% of the Independent/Other vote compared to Burner’s 9%.

Koster has 88% of Republicans locked-up; only 5% are undecided. Some 15% of Democrats and 16% of Independent/Others are undecided.

The oddest finding is that Koster received 50% of the (~68) non-White “votes”, but only 48% of the White “vote”. Huh?!? This is likely just sampling “error.”

Strategies 360 has released a new poll for the new Washington first congressional district. The poll of 500 likely voters (4.4 MOE) was conducted from 15 to 17 July.

Here are the results (with “leaners”):

• Koster (R) 36%
• Burner (D) 12%
• DelBene (D) 11%
• Hobbs (D) 7%
• Ruderman (D) 3%
• Rauniyar (D) 1%
• Ishmael (I) 2%
• Other candidate 2%
• DK/NA/Refused 26%

A couple of points. Susan DelBene has certainly moved up since the previous poll, but Darcy Burner still maintains a small edge.

Laura Ruderman, who seems to generate as much “buzz”—even before MotherGate—as Burner and DelBene, is surprisingly weak at 3%.

John Koster has dropped 10% since the previous poll.

With the ballots in the mail this week and voting starting, it sure looks like a November contest between Koster and Burner or Koster and DelBene.

But we should have some more evidence soon…at Drinking Liberally this Tuesday, Goldy mentioned two other (non-candidate) polls that were in the field.

What does this poll say about the general election? The above table shows that Hobbs has a very slight edge over the sum of votes for Democratic voters. Furthermore, Larry Ishmael, the independent, is a past Republican challenger to Rep. Jay Inslee in the first, so we can probably “re-purpose” his 2% to the Koster column. (This isn’t quite true…the the crosstabs show Ishmael has about twice as many progressive supporters as conservative supporters!) These numbers make the new 1st CD a split district with a slight Republican lean.

On the other hand, the self-reported partisan make-up in the sample favors Democrats by 43% to 39%:

• Democrat 27%
• Leans D 16%
• Republican 26%
• Leans R 13%
• Independent 13%
• Other/DK/NA/Refused 5%

The evidence in the crosstabs looks somewhat favorable for a future Democratic Representative in the 1st CD. Of that 26% who didn’t know or didn’t answer who they support, the numbers split almost identically between conservative and progressive (about 6.6% of the total sample for each group). Moderates who didn’t offer a preference make up just under 8% of the total sample, whereas moderates who did have a preference, prefer a Democrat to a Republican 3 to 1.

So…until we have more evidence, this general election looks like a tight race with a slight edge for the Democratic candidate.

There were some “legs” on the story of McKenna’s young staffer who made some unfortunate Tweets.

That’s the “big story” in the region’s media this week, but I think the media has missed the real story.

Kathlyn Ehl, who recently graduated from the UW, was hired by the McKenna campaign. But while she was a student, she created these cringe-worthy tweets:

Kathlyn Ehl @KathlynEhl
shut up and speak english #asians

and

Kathlyn Ehl @KathlynEhl
If it takes you an entire green light to walk in front of my car, GET A WHEELCHAIR #toooldtowalk

The tweets were brought to light on Slog.

Given how the press initially ignored stories like a County Executive candidate who punched his mother, and a Lands Commissioner engaging in sexual harassment, I figured the press would completely ignore this story…at least for a few days. In the mean time, the McKenna campaign would “disappear” the offending tweets and, perhaps, the staffer, without comment.

But the media has been over it. KUOW put it in their top-o-the-hour newscasts. Other media sources carried the KOMO story or the AP release. Even the Seattle Times had a story up by Monday evening.

Monday afternoon, the McKenna campaign did its own press release:

The tweets sent by a member of my campaign staff, Kathlyn Ehl, which were reported today were offensive and inappropriate. I am glad to see that she has apologized for her actions,” the statement reads. “The fact that she made the comments before joining my campaign does not make them any less hurtful to Asian Americans and the elderly. They were insensitive and wrong regardless of their context. She has done the right thing by apologizing. I am hopeful that she has learned a humbling lesson that will give her greater perspective about having charity in her heart when considering the challenges faced by others.

And by this morning, the offending policy assistant was gone, as was revealed by another McKenna campaign press release.

So, good on you, media, for even noticing. I’m not sure what the lesson is from that except, perhaps, that Anthony Weiner might still be in Congress if he had had the foresight to beat the shit out of someone instead of tweeting a photo of his bulging briefs.

But here’s what I think is the part of this story that should outrage the fuck out of the media (emphasis added):

Oddly, even though McKenna’s comments respond directly to a story we broke, his campaign did not send the statement to The Stranger. Instead, we obtained them from another source.

…and this…

I’ve posted [the McKenna campaign’s] statement—which, of course, the McKenna campaign didn’t send to The Stranger, even though we broke this story….

REALLY, McKenna??? Fucking REALLY?!? You want to be Governor of our state, and you persist in having a media “enemies list?”

This certainly paints him a small, petty man who lacks the temperament to be Governor.

McKenna believes he can pick who is and isn’t media and who is and isn’t a reporter.

What I don’t understand is why the area’s media allow McKenna to get away unscathed with this kind of bullshit.

Our summer and the political campaigns are all heating up. So please join us for a thirst-quenching evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night. Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets on Thursday. Also on Thursday, the Spokane Chapter is back!

With 226 chapters of Living Liberally, including eleven in Washington state and four more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

Some hours after I posted the Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! there were interesting new developments in the 2012 Presidential race that can be appreciated best visually.

It began with this advertisement from the Obama campaign that had everyone all a-twitter:

David Kurtz at TPM, in particular, is awestruck by the ad:”One for the History Books” he titles a post, and at one point he comparing it to FDR LBJ’s Daisy ad (this one).

Locally, The Stranger‘s Paul Constant expressed some enthusiasm for the ad (his emphasis, not mine):

Holy fucking shit. This is the most brutal attack ad I’ve seen in a long, long time. It minces the hell out of Romney’s offshore fortunes and his record as a jobs exporter (in the private and public sectors). And it makes fun of Romney’s singing voice, turning his version of “America, the Beautiful” into a symbol of his warped view of patriotism

The Romney campaign hit back with an ad that can only be described as pathetic:

The thesis is that by hitting Mitt Romeny hard on the Bain thing, it somehow negates Obama’s “Hope and Change” message of the last campaign. The writers obviously try to confuse Obama, the President, and Obama, the candidate.

For over three years, Republicans have been warning about how President Obama was “changing America into something unrecognizable.” Now, the Romney camp is “warning” America that Obama is just like other candidates.

It is conceivable that this ad actually helps Obama, by defusing the “changing America into something unrecognizable” argument for folks who don’t recognize that campaigns are not the same thing as policy.

The weekend has brought out a plethora of politicos making the rounds on the talk shows, including bulldogs like Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Karl Rove—who has the naked audacity to “warn” Obama about negative campaigning. That’s hilarious!

But of all the interviews, the ones with Romney campaign senior adviser Ed Gillespie are the most interesting.

In an interview on CNN’s State of the Union, Gillespie stated (my emphasis):

“He is going to release them [2 years of tax returns], Candy, we’ve made that clear, and that’s the standard that Senator McCain, Republican nominee in the last election said was the relevant standard. It’s the standard that Senator John Kerry as the Democratic nominee said was the standard.”

First…he really ought to rethink citing the losers of the past two elections as the model. Just sayin’.

Another problem is that John Kerry did not say that was the standard. Gillespie was off by an order of magnitude. Kerry released 20 years of tax returns. So, about that “standard”….

And on NBC’s Meet the Press we get this gem when David Gregory asked about Mitt benefiting financially from Bain even while on leave:

He actually retired retroactively…

Watch the 00:01:57 clip:

The Twitterosphere has gone bananas with the hash tag #retroactively.

I’ll close by pointing out two things.

First, when the Romney campaign has to “explain” the subtly of Romney’s position during the “bad” Bain years by using a five syllable adverb, they’re not just losing the campaign battle, they’re fucking losing their base!

Secondly, I’ll point out again what a precarious position Romney is now in. We know he was drawing a six-figure salary for, apparently, being on leave; for being completely detached from decisions at Bain. But the media smells blood in that—they will relentlessly attempt to unearth evidence that Romney did make some big decisions. And they’ll probably find something.

But even if they don’t, Romney still has the (relatively unexamined) implications found in Gregory’s question: As the owner of and sole shareholder in Bain and other spin-off companies, Romney was at a minimum receiving salary and investment profit from outsourcing, layoffs, liquidations, the offshore tax havens and, apparently, disposal of fetuses.

That he solely owned Bain through 2001 is undisputed fact. It just makes him look like a weasel to absolve himself of all responsibility, while earning millions, because he was on leave. Or retired.^&

^&retroactively.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News profanity hypocrisy.

Pap: Republicans bury their heads in the sand on climate change.

Young Turks: Nutjobber Rep. Michele Bachmann, “Muslim Brotherhood infiltrating America”.

NAACP Convention:

• Mitt Romney’s Black base.
• Organs make political speeches better:
• Slate News: Romney gets booed.
• Young Turks: Joe Biden’s NAACP speech.
• Young Turks: Mitt Romney NAACP speech conspiracy theories.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: David Brooks and “Meritocracies”.

ONN: Ron Paul makes campaign stop in whimsical jalopy.

Young Turks: Climate change or just hot weather?

Jimmy Kimmel: Boehner’s tears.

Ann Telnaes: Empowering women with choice and education.

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Mitt’s Olympic Trial:

• Slate News: Is Mitt Romney lying about leaving Bain?
• Young Turks: When did Mitt Romney leave Bain.
• Vetting Mitt’s Veeps: Sarah Palin:
• Ann Telnaes: Dick Cheney fundraiser.
• Newsy: When did Mitt leave?
• Young Turks: Obama campaign’s devastating, simple strategy to attack Romney.
• Jenn: Mitt Romney is unworthy of the Presidency.
• Maddow: Romney paid as a do-nothing President?!?
• Bill Press: DNC on Romney’s ‘ludicrous and shocking’ claims about stimulus money
• John Oliver: Mitt Romney is not boring.
• Young Turks: Where in the world is Mitt’s Money.
• Maddow: Ghosts of Bush Administration haunt Romney’s campaign.
• Mitt’s Bain secret exposed!
• Barely Political: An iPhone 4Mitt:
• Daily Kos Radio: Bain-a-palooza
• Thom and Pap: Romney caught Lying Again & Again & Again

Stephanie Miller: A Sarah Palin election sound bite.

Sam Seder: Rick Scott’s vision seems to be “Tuberculosis For Everyone!”

Thom: Do we need the Disclose Act or a Constitutional amendment?

Sam Seder: Ron and Rand’s internet manifesto.

Maddow: “Scott Brown claims Clinton, Biden call him!

Mark Fiore: The Godawful Particle.

Papantonio & Lizz Winstead: Lizz Free or Die.

Ann Telnaes: Boehner gets his health-care facts wrong.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

LePage-turner:

• America’s STUPIDEST Governor??? LePage (R-ME) doubles down on comparing ‘Obamacare’ to the Holocaust (via TalkingPointsMemo).
• Young Turks: IRS=Gestapo.

Threatening the First Lady!?!

Greenman: Welcome to the rest of our lives:

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Maddow: Reprieve for Mississippi’s last abortion clinic.

Alyona: Whale Wars.

Young Turks: Obama’s “biggest mistake” during Charlie Rose interview.

Pap and Cliff Schecter on offshore banking scams:

• Part I.
• Part III.
• Part III.

White House: West Wing Week.

Kimmel: This week in unnecessary censorship.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I’m going to be generous to Mitt Romney today. But first some context.

As his primary opponents predicted earlier this year, Mitt’s Bain Capitol record is coming back to bite him in the assets. The latest (which probably isn’t really the latest in the few minutes it takes me to write this post) comes from The Boston Globe:

Romney has said he left Bain in 1999 to lead the winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, ending his role in the company. But public Securities and Exchange Commission documents filed later by Bain Capital state he remained the firm’s “sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president.”

Also, a Massachusetts financial disclosure form Romney filed in 2003 states that he still owned 100 percent of Bain Capital in 2002. And Romney’s state financial disclosure forms indicate he earned at least $100,000 as a Bain “executive” in 2001 and 2002, separate from investment earnings.

The timing of Romney’s departure from Bain is a key point of contention because he has said his resignation in February 1999 meant he was not responsible for Bain Capital companies that went bankrupt or laid off workers after that date.

Here’s the generous part: Mitt’s account may be correct! It very well may be that he left Bain for Salt Lake City, and psychologically detached from Bain, leaving all of the management in the hands of his trusted partners.

I can imagine a departing speech, perhaps held on a yacht in Boston Harbor:

I’ve got an Olympic-sized corruption scandal and fiscal problems to deal with in SLC. So, I’m taking a leave. I’ll have nothing more to do with running Bain through the end of the Olympics. I leave it to you, my trusted friends, to maximize shareholder profits. (And as the only shareholder, I demand it! [forced laugh.]) If you make the shareholder fabulously wealthy, you will be generously rewarded when I move on to my post-Olympic project…. So for now, you have the helm.

(Exit stage right.)

And maybe Mitt lived up to this ideal. There is even some evidence consistent with this account. In some sense, then he shouldn’t be held accountable for decisions made during his leave. Right?

The political problem for Mitt is that, as Kevin Drum points out, the whole thing just looks icky. Denying responsibility for big decisions while at the same time being listed as “sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president” on multiple SEC filings, makes Mitt look like he is dodging responsibility.

It feels weaselly. Apparently…the buck doesn’t stop with Mitt. (It’s spirited away to a Swiss Bank Account.)

Furthermore, pulling down a salary (even a paltry $100,000) while on leave makes it seem like he was either actively doing something for the company, or skimming without justification.

Either one may be true without tying Mitt to actual decisions (or knowledge of) embarrassing investments and politically damaging layoffs. But, either way, it still looks bad, and people will have to be excused for feeling misled by Mitt.

But here is the deal. I think this Bain thing has left Mitt in a precarious position…and with a much bigger problem.

The problem is that any evidence of decision making at Bain during his leave will make a liar out of Mitt. The evidence so far is good for Mitt. And thousands and thousands of pages of additional documentation may well be released. But proof doesn’t come from negative evidence, so uncertainty will linger.

The flip side is that it will take but one memo, one recording of an invited speech, one email, a telephone recording, or maybe even a handful of disgruntled ex-employees with some personal notes (remember the Veterans who “served with” John Kerry?) to provide a solitary example of Mitt making a major decision for Bain during his leave…and Mitt’s credibility will be decimated.

And worst of all for Mitt, there is a huge incentive to be the first news organization to find it.

The race is on!

Queue the Red Cross telethon raising money for victims of recent wild fires. Mike Myers cringes as Kanye West breaks script and blurts out:

Black People don’t care for Mitt Romney.

That would pretty much summarize the response Mitt Romney got during his speech before the NAACP today:

(You can watch the whole awkward Romney speech here.)

Says CNN correspondent Jim Acosta:

I have to tell you… I’ve been covering the Romney campaign for a year now[….] I have not heard that kind of sustained booing for Mitt Romney during the course of this campaign. […] This was, perhaps, one of the most negative reactions Mitt Romney has had in the course of his 2012 presidential campaigns.

Here are some photos of the audience reaction.

Last night, the twittersphere was all a-tweet with the hash tag #ThingsRomneyShouldntSayToNAACP‬. You know, things like

Freedom of Teach ‏@FreedomofTeach
My wife drives a couple of Cadillacs, so we have that in common. ‪#ThingsRomneyShouldntSayToNAACP‬

Er. D.-OBAMA2012 ‏@esd2000
‪#ThingsRomneyShouldntSayToTheNAACP‬ I’m a big fan of the Basketball contests you guys all love.

Shrink’g Mdl Class ‏@alohaGOP
“I had a dream too – but mine came true, obviously.” ‪#fakelaugh‬ ‪#ThingsRomneyShouldntSayToNAACP‬

Who knew the ‪#OneThingRomneyReallyShouldntHaveSaid‬ is written into his day-to-day stump speech.

(BTW: You can follow my twitter feed here.)

As you may know, our state’s Attorney General, Rob McKenna takes credit for co-founding the state attorneys general lawsuit against the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

Apparently, McKenna lost control of the lawsuit, because he repeatedly claimed that he only wanted the “mandate” and the Medicaid provisions thrown out. Indeed, his own official web site claimed that, “This suit will not ‘overturn’ or ‘repeal’ the new health care reform legislation.”

His co-conspirators colleagues saw it differently. The lawsuit ended up asking the courts to strike down the entire law.

So…remember a couple of Thursdays ago when the Supreme Court found the PPACA “mandate” constitutional? That very day, McKenna gave a press conference in has capacity as Attorney General and as one of the instigators of the ill-fated lawsuit against PPACA. Here is a excerpt from the Q&A (video here):

Jim Brunner: Do you support Congress repealing this law […]?

Rob McKenna: This law is not going to be repealed…

Jim Bruner: Do you support it being repealed?

Rob McKenna: No. There are a number of provisions in this law that ought to be maintained.

Okay…he had to be asked a second time when he tried giving a non-answer the first time, but…pretty clear answer, no?

Yesterday, McKenna further “clarified” his position when speaking before Chamber of Commerce in Yakima :

…McKenna said the reports were a misinterpretation by “Seattle media” and that his position on the Affordable Care Act hasn’t changed.

“I wish I had been better prepared with a better articulated response than the one I gave at the press conference,” McKenna told the luncheon audience after an attendee accused him of changing his stance. “Frankly I didn’t think we were going to lose so I wasn’t ready for that question.”

McKenna insisted he was only asked whether Congress would go forward with repealing the act, not whether he thinks it should be repealed.

Huh. The media clearly reported that McKenna didn’t want Congress to repeal the PPACA. So…um, now, under criticism on the other side of the Mountains, McKenna claims the “Seattle Media” misinterpreted him? So…he is suggesting to a more conservative audience that he believes it should be repealed?

So…to further “clarify” exactly how McKenna feels, his campaign manager, Randy Peeple points out:

…McKenna’s position has not changed and that his [forthcoming] op-ed will not be calling for repeal of the health-care law. Instead, he said McKenna will more fully lay out the parts of the law he still has concerns with and how he’d responsibly approach them as governor.

McKenna has continued to warn about the expense of the law’s Medicaid expansion and has said its individual mandate is problematic despite the court’s ruling. (At his June 28 news conference, however, McKenna said the mandate should remain in place “for now” because it is so closely tied to key positive parts of the health-care law.)

So…the “mandate” is problematic (East) but he wants it to remain in place (West).

Come on. He’s just fucking with everyone now!

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters meet, and Thursday night Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets. Next Monday there are meetings of the Olympia and Yakima chapters.

With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including eleven in Washington state and four more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

Do you have an offshore bank account?

The Health Care Killing Floors:

• Bill-O-The-Clown fesses up….
• Ann Telnaes: The Republican solution to fixing our health care system.
• Susie Sampson: Health Care and Independence Day.
• Young Turks: MittFlop #1,712, “Obamacare mandate a tax”.
• Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Rhode Island edition:
• Sam Seder: “Katherine Harris” calls to chime in on Obamacare, SCOTUS + More!
• Even Bill-O-the-Clown mocks Rep. John Boehner.
• Mark Fiore: RepubliBliss.

Maddow: Ron Paul not out until Nebraska sings.

Obama kicks off a campaign tour.

Pap: The fracking industry’s dirty secrets.

Tom: The Good, The Bad and the Very Very Nasicornously Ugly!

Growing Up:

• Young Turks: FAUX News rips kid for turning liberal.
• Lawrence O’Donnell talks to fallen conservative Jonathan Krohn.
• Young Turks: Conservative Kid Jonathan Krohn evolves into a Liberal.
• Sam Seder: 13 YO conservative kid pundit Jonathan Krohn…now a 17 YO liberal.
• End of a Teen Dream (photo essay): The Conservatives who once loved Jonathan Krohn (via TalkingPointsMemo).
• Slate News: Jonathan Krohn responds to the responses.

The Daily Show explains Wall Street.

Alyona: Rhode Island’s new disclosure act.

Young Turks: Conservative Judge says GOP has become ‘goofy’.

Slate News: Ron Paul’s new crusade.

Sam Seder: Florida Congressman Bill Young (R) pulls a McKenna; tells minimum wage worker to, “Get a job”.

The Onion Week in Review.

Romney’s Romper Room:

• Slate NewsRomney’s Spanish advertisement FAIL.
• Thom: Mr. 1% and his offshore millions.
• Mitt explains the free rider provision.
• Pap: Romney is in deep with oil lobbyists.
• Newsy: Murdoch criticism suggests rift with Romney.
• Sam Seder: Lemon. Wet. Good.
• Gov. Strickland calls on Mitt to release tax returns.
• Young Turks: Romney’s abortion clean-up service…investment
• Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Washington state edition:
• Thom: Pirate capitalist Romney vs the average Joe.
• Newsy: Romney camp confused in tax penalty.
• Sam Seder: Everyone deserves a fair shot if they can afford it.
• Ann Telnaes: Mitt Flips.
• ONN: Romney’s numbers skyrocket after prostitute reveals she paid him.
• Young Turks: Murdoch tweets on Mitt.
• Liberal Viewer: MSNBC’s false edit of Romney immigration stance.

Obama likes the kid’s hair.

Sam Seder: Rush Limbaugh, “The country went downhill when we let women vote!.

Young Turks: Anti-tax movement burned in Colorado fire.

Thom: more of The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Mother Pitt:

• Young Turks: Brad Pitt’s mother.
• Buzz60: MOOoooOmmm!
• Slate News: The strange case of Brad Pitt and his mother.

White House: West Wing Week.

Maddow: Thaddeus McCotter resigns… weirdly.

Young Turks: Koch brothers helped by ear marks from tea party Congressman.

Thom: Will RI disclosure bill keep out the super PACs?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.