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Poll Analysis: The Ryan Bump!

by — ,


Obama Romney
99.8% probability of winning 0.2% probability of winning
Mean of 325 electoral votes Mean of 213 electoral votes

It’s been ten days since Mitt Romney announced his running mate. Polling has been a little on the slow side since then, but we now have 15 new polls in nine states to throw into the mix. Most of the polls have been taken since the August 11 announcement.

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney by a mean of 334 electoral votes to Romney’s mean of 204 electoral votes. An election held then was nearly 100% certain to go to Obama.

Here are the new polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO Purple Poll 13-Aug 14-Aug 600 4.0 49 46 O+3
FL Gravis Marketing 20-Aug 20-Aug 728 3.8 45.1 48.3 R+3.2
FL Rasmussen 15-Aug 15-Aug 500 4.5 43 45 R+2
FL Purple Poll 13-Aug 14-Aug 600 4.0 47 48 R+1
MI Baydoun 16-Aug 16-Aug 1733 2.3 43.9 47.7 R+3.8
MI Mitchell 13-Aug 13-Aug 1079 3.0 49 44 O+5
MO Chilenski Strategies 08-Aug 08-Aug 663 3.8 47 48 R+1
NY Siena 14-Aug 19-Aug 671 3.8 62 33 O+29
OH Purple Poll 13-Aug 14-Aug 600 4.0 44 46 R+2
OK SoonerPoll 26-Jul 14-Aug 495 — 29 58 R+29
VA PPP 16-Aug 19-Aug 855 3.4 50 45 O+5
VA Purple Poll 13-Aug 14-Aug 600 4.0 45 48 R+3
WI PPP 16-Aug 19-Aug 1308 2.7 47 48 R+1
WI Rasmussen 15-Aug 15-Aug 500 4.5 47 48 R+1
WI CNN/Opinion Research 13-Aug 14-Aug 920 3.0 49 45 O+4

Colorado gives Obama a +3% lead, and a winning streak of three August polls.

Romney takes all three Florida polls, matching Obama’s streak of three from the previous round. Overall, the past month of polls favor Obama with a 68% probability of winning the state. Of course, the pre-Ryan polls likely overestimate Obama’s chances.

Michigan puts Romney over Obama by a delicate +3.8% in one poll and Obama over Romney by 5% in another. The six current polls suggest Obama would win with a 90% probability right now.

The Missouri poll is pre-Ryan, and shows Romney with a slender +1% lead. In fact, a newer SurveyUSA poll that I mentioned in the previous analysis had Romney leading by slightly more (+1.9%).

No sign of a Ryan bump in New York, where Obama leads by +29%

We only have one new Ohio poll and that goes to Romney by +2%. The six current Ohio polls, taken together, give Obama a 98% probability of winning an election held now.

Oklahoma gives Obama a little bump. Romney’s +29% in the current poll was a +35% in May, when the last Sooner Poll was taken.

In Virginia, Obama leads Romney by +5% in one poll and Romney leads Obama by +3% in another. Obama leads in four of the five current polls and would be expected to win now with a 91% probability.

Will Ryan convince Wisconsin voters to support Romny? Three polls address this: Romney is up by a slim +1% in two polls and Obama is up by 4% in the third. Overall, Obama still wins the state by 97%.

A Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections finds Obama winning 99,771 times and Romney winning 229 times (including the 16 ties). Obama receives (on average) 325 (-9) to Romney’s 213 (+9) electoral votes. The results suggests that Obama would win and election held now with a 99.8% (-0.2%) probability and Romney would win with a 0.2% probability.

Empirically, the selection of a running mate tens to strengthen a candidate’s chances. Usually the bump are transient—that is, VP selection results in a temporary “bounce.” Here what we see is a small bump up some ten days after the announcement.

Since the analysis also includes numerous polls taken prior to the Ryan selection, we should expect Romney’s prospects to improve as the pre-Ryan polls “age out” of the analysis. Whether the bump persists or becomes a bounce is still unclear.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 341 electoral votes with a 2.86% probability
  • 326 electoral votes with a 2.65% probability
  • 332 electoral votes with a 2.63% probability
  • 336 electoral votes with a 2.59% probability
  • 321 electoral votes with a 2.54% probability
  • 335 electoral votes with a 2.54% probability
  • 342 electoral votes with a 2.44% probability
  • 327 electoral votes with a 2.42% probability
  • 322 electoral votes with a 2.10% probability
  • 312 electoral votes with a 2.07% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 99.8%, Romney wins 0.2%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 324.6 (19.5)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 213.4 (19.5)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 326 (284, 357)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 212 (181, 254)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 84
Strong Obama 166 250
Leans Obama 76 76 326
Weak Obama 9 9 9 335
Weak Romney 16 16 16 203
Leans Romney 10 10 187
Strong Romney 133 177
Safe Romney 44

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

0 0 EC # Total % % Obama Romney
8 4 Votes polls Votes Obama Romney % wins % wins
AL 9 1 558 36.6 63.4 0.0 100.0
AK 3 0 (0) (100)
AZ 11 1 775 44.1 55.9 0.9 99.1
AR 6 1* 679 36.8 63.2 0.0 100.0
CA 55 1* 780 59.7 40.3 100.0 0.0
CO 9 4 3152 50.1 49.9 52.5 47.5
CT 7 1 725 54.2 45.8 94.6 5.4
DE 3 0 (100) (0)
DC 3 1 94 88.3 11.7 100.0 0.0
FL 29 5 3647 50.5 49.5 67.5 32.5
GA 16 2 1608 45.4 54.6 0.5 99.5
HI 4 1* 517 64.8 35.2 100.0 0.0
ID 4 0* (0) (100)
IL 20 1* 546 61.5 38.5 100.0 0.0
IN 11 1 344 40.7 59.3 0.7 99.3
IA 6 1 450 48.9 51.1 36.9 63.1
KS 6 1* 442 45.0 55.0 6.3 93.7
KY 8 1* 528 45.5 54.5 6.5 93.5
LA 8 1* 542 41.1 58.9 0.1 99.9
ME 2 1* 516 58.3 41.7 99.6 0.4
ME1 1 1* 488 64.8 35.2 100.0 0.0
ME2 1 1* 421 53.7 46.3 86.3 13.7
MD 10 1* 792 62.4 37.6 100.0 0.0
MA 11 1* 848 58.5 41.5 100.0 0.0
MI 16 6 4847 51.3 48.7 89.9 10.1
MN 10 1* 472 53.6 46.4 86.6 13.4
MS 6 1* 717 40.0 60.0 0.0 100.0
MO 10 5 3242 46.7 53.3 0.5 99.5
MT 3 1* 372 45.2 54.8 9.9 90.1
NE 2 1* 553 43.4 56.6 1.5 98.5
NE1 1 1* 389 45.5 54.5 10.6 89.4
NE2 1 1* 252 49.6 50.4 47.0 53.0
NE3 1 1* 284 35.9 64.1 0.1 99.9
NV 6 1 475 52.6 47.4 78.6 21.4
NH 4 2 1540 52.6 47.4 92.2 7.8
NJ 14 1 722 57.6 42.4 99.7 0.3
NM 5 1* 674 52.7 47.3 83.7 16.3
NY 29 1 637 65.3 34.7 100.0 0.0
NC 15 2 1237 50.0 50.0 48.8 51.2
ND 3 1* 348 41.4 58.6 1.4 98.6
OH 18 6 4511 52.1 47.9 97.4 2.6
OK 7 1 431 33.4 66.6 0.0 100.0
OR 7 1* 631 54.4 45.6 93.6 6.4
PA 20 3 2413 54.3 45.7 99.9 0.1
RI 4 1* 495 59.4 40.6 99.9 0.1
SC 9 1* 1833 51.7 48.3 84.9 15.1
SD 3 1 497 46.1 53.9 10.8 89.2
TN 11 1* 654 46.0 54.0 7.9 92.1
TX 38 1* 460 38.9 61.1 0.0 100.0
UT 6 1* 1149 27.7 72.3 0.0 100.0
VT 3 1* 528 67.8 32.2 100.0 0.0
VA 13 5 3640 51.6 48.4 92.3 7.7
WA 12 1 477 59.3 40.7 99.7 0.3
WV 5 1* 373 40.8 59.2 0.6 99.4
WI 10 6 5766 51.7 48.3 96.9 3.1
WY 3 0 (0) (100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 1

    In my memory, the selction of a Vice-Presidential nominee has been reserved for the convention.

    Sometimes the selection seems obvious, in that the Presidential nominee wants to bring in the second-place finisher in the primary process in a play toward party “unity”. Sometimes it’s an attempt to balance out the ticket, either geography or demographically. But often, the vice-presidential selection is a surprise. Presidential candidates usually want to appeal to the news media covering the conventions and to create a sense of supense which will ensure the maximum viewership for at least a couple of speaches.

    But Romney didn’t do any of that. Instead, he announced his V.P. selection a couple of weeks ahead of the convention, ensuring that the convention itself will be a snooze-fest. Why would he intentionally damage himself by killing off viewership at his last, best time to define himself?

    We can only speculate that he decided that he NEEDED the V.P. announcement “bump” long before the convention began. Maybe the polling showed he was in a losing race, and the big-money contributors were wondering if their money was being wasted on Romney. Maybe he desperately needed to shift the focus away from his tax returns.

    But for whatever reason, Romney has shot this wad early. Once used, he can’t repeat the process to get an additional bounce. The “bounce”, for whatever value it is worth, will fade.

    It looks like by August we will be back to similar polling numbers as we saw before, with Wisconsin being an exception. Of course, we will also have the Akin issue which may offset any advantage in Wisconsin by a loss in Missouri, as RR explained in a previous thread. Romeny NEEDS Wisconsin AND Missouri, but he may only get one.

  2. 2

    By the way, Republican convention organizers are keeping a wary eye on a tropical depression in the Atlantic. Although storm tracks are very hard to predict this far away from landfall, it is possible that it could hit Florida or S. Georgia at the time of the Republican Convention, in the form of a Cat. 1 or II huricane.

    Of course, the Democratic convenion is also within the path of the some tropical storms this time of year, although it’s far too early to even make a guess at this point.

    But it would be interesting to see the Republican Convention being reduced to an empty ballroom floor, with the party leaders giving speeches to a mostly empty room, until the lights go out and TV screens turn first to static, then a “technical difficulty” screen appears for the rest of the evening.

  4. 4

    @ 1

    Instead, he announced his V.P. selection a couple of weeks ahead of the convention, ensuring that the convention itself will be a snooze-fest. Why would he intentionally damage himself by killing off viewership at his last, best time to define himself?

    1. Ryan’s a hit so far. No reason to think he’s a dullard.

    2. Chris Christie. ’nuff said.

    3. Announce the pick early and there are TWO candidates out there, advancing the message, raising funds. Does it feel like a 2 vs 2 couple of weeks to you? Or does it feel like Biden’s been a drag on the Dem ticket and Obama has been double teamed by the Big Red Machine? My guess is the latter.

    With some battleground races tightening and others flipping into the red column there’s big Mo (events of last 48 hours excluded) for the convention.

    Romney wasted nothing by announcing early. He’s got 93% support amongst the GOP in WI. It’s a solid ticket. Ryan’s been a hit.

    Although nobody messes with Joe, so you’ve still got that going for you.

  5. 5

    Colorado gives Obama a +3% lead, and a winning streak of three August polls.

    Been telling ya Colorado will go for Obama.

    Encouraging news out of Missouri!

  7. 7

    “Does it feel like a 2 vs 2 couple of weeks to you? Or does it feel like Biden’s been a drag on the Dem ticket and Obama has been double teamed by the Big Red Machine? My guess is the latter.”

    Actually, it feels like the discussion of Republicans and their issues with women and rape, not to mention Mitt’s low tax rate and your party’s desire to lower it to zero, will last at least until the GOP convention starts. That’s not exactly the game plan you guys had in mind, is it? You’d better focus on jobs at the convention because that’s your last chance. But I suspect that, what with all the crazies and the heat in Tampa, the convention will break down into a 4-Day Obama hate-fest. I’m sure that’ll go over big.

  8. 8

    As I pointed out in a previous thread, Badoun is flaky. Their Florida poll has Romney ahead by 15 points, which prompted Nate Silver to say,

    “Once in a great while, a poll comes along with methodology that is so implausible that it deserves some further comment.”

    Here’s what Silver said about it:

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n.....ets-weird/

    Roger Rabbit Commentary: If Badoun’s methodology in Florida is fucked up, why would it be any less fucked up in Michigan? Especially when their Michigan poll is an outlier, given that Obama is ahead in all the other Michigan polls?

  10. 10

    That Missouri poll is interesting. If Obama ekes out a win there, it would cancel a Romney win in Wisconsin, and Romney would be as far away as ever from 270 electoral votes. That’s a must-not-lose state for Romney, and Akin may be doing him some serious damage there.

    Put both Missouri and Colorado in Obama’s column, and things get very difficult for Romney, unless he can peel off Michigan but that doesn’t seem very plausible.

  11. 11

    Here’s a hoot: The GOPers are advertising their get-together as the “Convention Without Walls.” No walls, just miles of fences and armies of cops to keep those pesky 99-percenters away.

    Here’s a real gem:

    “During public debates, some Tampa residents and City Council members opposed the rules, calling them excessive. Others complained that while the ordinance outlawed water pistols, actual pistols were allowed for those with permits to carry a concealed weapon. Although Tampa’s mayor, Bob Buckhorn, had asked the state’s governor, Rick Scott, to ban firearms during the convention, the governor has refused.”

    Roger Rabbit Commentary: So, protesters can’t have pistols, but Republicans can pack real guns. Isn’t that just like a Republican governor? In the state where a black teenager was gunned down for packing a bag of candy?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07.....tests.html

  12. 12

    how typical is it in past elections for the president that analyses have the incumbent at 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% probablilty of winning. Is it common? I dont even see the point in continuing these analyses. its always certain Democractic. Is it commonly this high then evens up later, or is this an anomaly.

  13. 13

    “The Missouri poll is pre-Ryan”

    More importantly, it’s pre-Akin “rape can’t make you pregnant so if you’re pregnant you must have enjoyed it” blowup.

  14. 14

    @12 You’re exaggerating. Darryl gives Obama only a 99.8% probability of winning.

  15. 15

    Re: “the Ryan bump”, mosquitoes leave larger and more positive impressions. Big fat nothing Burger.

    The pre convention bump is that War On Women that Akin put in the road which Slick Willard and Akin’s Republican House LEADER can no longer hide.

  16. 16

    So you guys are Nate Silver fans, right?
    Yet you ignore an article Silver produced last month showing what has happened the past 6 elections when pollsters shift from Registered to Likely Voters. Bottom-line is it always improves for the Republican by an average of 1.5% points with a range of .7%–2.5%. This is why Darryl’s early analysis has marginal meaning. Because so many of these polls show RV. When the changeover is made, don’t have a heart attack. It could easily be on the upper end this time because of the crazy, unsubstantiated assumptions polls like NBC/WSJ make. They will continue to cook the books to try and help their guy & his pathetic supporters (that’s you HA left-wingers). The devil is always in the details and the underlying assumptions. A pollster can get whatever result you ask him to by merely changing the underlying assumptions. Even though todays NBC/WSJ poll is still based on questionable assumptions, it shows Romney as only behind by 4. Ouch

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n.....ter-polls/

    You are getting awful fired up over data that will soon be modified to likely voters and show an entirely different picture…if you feel SIlver has credibility and the last 6 Presidential Election adjustment for RV to LV will happen again, which is likely since Obama is struggling with turnout.
    But keep trying to convince yourselves all is well in Obama/Biden LaLaLand.

  17. 17

    14. Roger Rabbit spews:

    @12 You’re exaggerating. Darryl gives Obama only a 99.8% probability of winning.

    Darryl is not predicting Obama winning. He is giving you a snapshot based on an accumulation of polls conducted at different times and with different underlying assumptions, the most important of which is LV vs. RV.

  18. 18

    Here are the 4 most recent Missouri polls-
    SurveyUSA 8/9 – 8/12 585 LV 45 44 Romney +1
    Rasmussen Reports 7/30 – 7/30 500 LV 50 44 Romney +6
    Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon* 7/23 – 7/25 625 LV 51 42 Romney +9
    WeAskAmerica* 7/24 – 7/24 1172 LV 49 40

    Romney +9

    Michael, I think that chill running up your leg over one poll is something other than common sense. It’s called grasping at straws.

  20. 20

    “Michael, I think that chill running up your leg over one poll is something other than common sense.”

    Oh, yuck! Sometimes troll projection reveals far more than we ever needed to know.

    We didn’t learn anything about Michael, but we certainly learned a little bit more about you, Klown. I just wish we hadn’t.

  21. 21

    19. Steve spews:

    @16 zzzZZZZzzzz Huh? Um, did you say something, Klown?

    Once again Doctor Steve shows his inability to address facts and resorts to silliness rather than address the point that RV polls are skewed toward Democrats. How hard is that Steve??
    You seem to be more than your usual half-a-bubble off.

  23. 23

    “Big fat nothing Burger.”

    I wonder who was vetted worse, Palin or this stiff, Ryan? All Ryan has accomplished so far is to ignite a national discussion of how his proposals would have allowed Mitt to pay zero taxes, and now piling on with a national discussion about Republicans and rape.

    Jobs? Damn. That discussion was lost in the dust stirred up by Republican wackiness. Jobs are important but the truth is, Republicans are so damned wack, it’s probably just as important to have a national discussion about their wackness. In fact, that might be the discussion that could actually help turn this country around.

  24. 24

    @16

    You are getting awful fired up over data that will soon be modified to likely voters and show an entirely different picture

    The data will change regardless. We’re discussing the data as it exists in this moment.

  26. 26

    24. Michael spews:
    @16

    You are getting awful fired up over data that will soon be modified to likely voters and show an entirely different picture

    The data will change regardless. We’re discussing the data as it exists in this moment.

    True but the point is that weighing RV the same as LV and using polls that are a month or more old…you have to say for whatever it’s worth,,which is nothing as far as predicting November results. Trends are of value however. If Obama was at +1 in April, +4 in May, +7 in June in the same poll with Likely voters…that would be an indicator things are going good for him. Know what I mean?

    Seems like Doctor Steve is chocking down Ambien way too early again.

  27. 27

    Can’t tell you how much it pleases me to see Doctor Steve make such an ass out of himself. Whenever someone is unwilling or incapable in Steve’s case, of presenting a cogent response or debate a point reasonably it shows they have lost. Poor Doctor Steve. I wonder if where his wife goes when he doses off like this every evening?
    What does your wife think Doctor Steve? I’ll bet HE gets pissed when you start noddin’ off. Right Fancy Boy?

  28. 28

    @26

    Darryl was more accurate than Nate Silver at predicting the election results in 2010 & 2012.

    That’s the reason I’m here.

    He doesn’t do forward looking predictions. His model is simpler. In the few weeks leading up to the last 2 elections, his results were more accurate.

    Yes, the data will change. This is as good a picture of where we are right now as you’re going to get.

  29. 29

    @18

    Obama’s closed the gap a bit in MO. I’ve already said that it looks like Obama will probaby lose MO and I don’t see any reason to change that. It’s nice to see the gap closing, which is all I was saying.

  30. 30

    @17 “Darryl is not predicting Obama winning.”

    So? I didn’t say he was. Darryl posts probabilities, not predictions. They’re two different things. The only commenter using the word “predicting” is you.

  32. 32

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/.....4-0-Yeah-0

    Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 04:50 PM PDT

    NBC/WSJ Poll: Obama Leads Romney w/ African-Americans 94% – 0% (Yeah, ZERO %)

    by TarantinoDork
    Obama retains a four-point lead overall in the race. But this is just astounding.

    Looking inside the numbers, Obama continues to lead Romney among key parts of his political base, including African Americans (94 percent to 0 percent), Latinos (by a 2-to-1 margin), voters under 35-years-old (52 percent to 41 percent) and women (51 percent to 41 percent).
    Romney is ahead with whites (53 percent to 40 percent), rural voters (47 percent to 38 percent) and seniors (49 percent to 41 percent).

    Zero.

    For historical reference, George W. Bush received 11% of the black vote in 2004.

    The Hermanator and pissypuddypussy are outliers, I guess.

  33. 33

    Chris @ 12,

    “how typical is it in past elections for the president that analyses have the incumbent at 99.99% probablilty of winning.”

    Very few analysts in past elections estimate the PROBABILITY of winning. The methods may not have been used at all in 2004. In 2008, I was one of a handful of people estimating the probabilities. In 2012, there seem to be even fewer such analyses than in 2008.

    “Is it common?”

    The methods are not common. The current findings are what they are.

    “I dont even see the point in continuing these analyses.”

    Then don’t read them, dumb ass!

    “its always certain Democractic.”

    It has been this election cycle, but this wasn’t the case in 2008. This graph shows the expected electoral votes over time for the 2008 election. Clearly, McCain had an advantage over Obama for part of that election cycle. This cycle, the polls have favored Obama.

    “Is it commonly this high then evens up later, or is this an anomaly.”

    It does what it does. The results are directly driven by the poll…there are very few (and well documented) underlying assumptions in this analysis.

  34. 34

    Cyni-Clown,

    “So you guys are Nate Silver fans, right?”

    Not really. I think his Monte Carlo methods are flawed.

    “This is why Darryl’s early analysis has marginal meaning. Because so many of these polls show RV.”

    Ummm…no. All but 2 or 3 of the 14 polls in this batch were likely voter polls.

    But nice try. Your still one of the worst amateur propagandists EVAR!

    Essentially, Mr. Cynical, your amateur propaganda attempts are just big TELLS. The more shrill you become, the more we know you are panicking.

    From all appearances, you are terrified about a pending loss right now….

  35. 35

    Roger Rabit @ 31,

    “The RealClearPolitics Senate map looks tough for the GOP, too.”

    Yeah…I’m trying to get the Monte Carlo analyses going for Senate races. I hope to be doing them very soon…

  36. 36

    Heh. I wonder why the Klown is babbling my name through these comments? Hmm, I bet it’s a Psych 101 thing.

  37. 37

    @32 all im saying is that the “best” I have seen for Romney is 1% and the polling for that was a month ago. I just dont see it as likely that Romney would have only had a 1% chance of winning an election held a month ago. Less than 50% chance, sure, but only 1%, even when considering a hypothetical election approximately a month ago. I doubt it. So all Im asking is how common is it that the incumbent would has such a high chance this late in the election cycle. Anything higher than 80% probability just seems really unliekly, even for an election held now.

  38. 38

    The Convention will adjourn as the democrats cruise on past the 16 trillion debt mark, and with that great feat, GM near Bankruptcy again, and the “You didn’t build your business” Mantra, the Big screens will be alive….Ryan could not have asked for a better debate season than he will get with Biden. That will be the Debate of the century!

  39. 39

    #38,

    Congressman Ayn Ryan, you have spent the last 2 years in control of the House Budget Committee. You have pushed the Ryan Plan. Please explain where the missing money will come from to balance the expanded military and the further tax cuts for the rich.

  40. 40

    #38,

    Congressman Ayn Ryan, the Rethug House has voted 33 times to remove a woman’s right to control her own body. You have been in the forefront of this effort. Please explain why this is a good thing for women.

  41. 41

    #38,

    Congressman Ayn Ryan, please explain your budget’s $700 billion cut to Medicare, who pays for the cut and who gets the money.

  42. 42

    #38,

    Congressman Ayn Ryan, please explain why as a Rethug leader in Congress you have not proposed or pushed one piece of legislation to create jobs.

  43. 43

    #38,

    Congressman Ayn Ryan, please explain why you requested stimulus money for your district if you truly believed it would do no good in either keeping or creating jobs.

  44. 44

    This is on-topic due to the mention of Ryan in the title.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....ors-still/

    Ryan’s favorability among seniors is 50%, unfavorables at 35%.

    This will improve as he is given more time to state his proposals and explain that they will not harm seniors.

    Ryan will be in Florida, plenty, this Fall. Along with all those advertising dollars.

    Ah, but Team Obama has their secret weapon – Joe!

  45. 45

    This will improve as he is given more time to state his proposals and explain that they will not harm seniors.

    Hardly.

    When people are presented with the Ryan plan, sans Ryan, they hate it. It’s not going to be that that is reversed, but that he is linked, appropriately, with his devastating, smoke-and-mirrors based ‘plan’ for upward wealth redistribution.

    Nice try, bub.

  46. 46

    It’s hard to imagine Republicans getting a bump when all the discussion since Ryan was picked has been about how he proposed tax plans that would have allowed the guy at the top of the ticket, the guy who won’t release tax returns, to pay zero taxes. Then of course, Ryan’s legislative partner has been discussed 24/7 all week.

    Stuff like this won’t help much, will it? All it does is keep the discussion of Republicans and their redefinition of rape alive.

    Wingnut talking head says that the real rape victim was Todd Akin. From TPM,

    Bryan Fischer, a conservative radio host and an official with the American Family Association, compared Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO), to a rape victim Tuesday, after Akin’s controversial comments about “legitimate rape” prompted a wave of outrage toward the Missouri Senate candidate.

    “You talk about a forcible situation, you talk about somebody being a victim of forcible assault, that would be Todd Akin,” Fischer said.

    Too much. Anyways, since the pick, all Mitt has done has try to put distance between himself and his VP pick on his tax plans, now he is putting distance between Ryan and his views on abortion and rape. Hell, Ryan is trying to distance himself from his own views.

    The wingnut Galtian hero has been neutered. It begs the question, why did Romney pick Ryan in the first place.

    Ryan, a worse pick that Palin. Unbelievable. Who saw that one coming?

  47. 47

    Chris @ 32,

    “all im saying is that the “best” I have seen for Romney is 1% and the polling for that was a month ago.”

    Unlike 2008 where McCain was the projected winner for part of the election season, this season Romney has been pretty weak. He has been playing catch-up, but hasn’t caught up yet.

    “I just dont see it as likely that Romney would have only had a 1% chance of winning an election held a month ago.”

    The only “evidence” used to inform the analyses is poll results (except that Romney gets all Electoral College ties). The fact is, while Romney has not been doing too badly in a popular vote (according to national polls), he hasn’t done all that well by the rules of the electoral college.

    “Less than 50% chance, sure, but only 1%, even when considering a hypothetical election approximately a month ago. I doubt it.”

    Hey…it’s a free country, doubt as you wish!

    “So all Im asking is how common is it that the incumbent would has such a high chance this late in the election cycle.”

    Except for 2008, I can’t say. I don’t have the state head-to-head polling from previous elections, and past analysts were not doing these computationally-intensive methods to predict _probabilities_ of winning at a given time.

    “Anything higher than 80% probability just seems really unliekly, even for an election held now.”

    In 2008, during periods where the probabilities were close, the analyses were much more suspenseful and worth writing about. From the perspective of doing these analyses, I wouldn’t mind a closer race (even if, personally, I prefer Obama have a solid lead). Alas, that isn’t what the polling data suggest.

  49. 49

    @ 45

    Hardly.

    When people are presented with the Ryan plan, sans Ryan, they hate it.

    I absolutely believe you. I am certain that all left-leaning viewers who watch O’Donnell, Schultz, and Maddow, when those talking heads refer to the Ryan plan, hate it.

    We’ll see how things stand post-debate in October. My guess is it might come up once or twice.

  50. 50

    Latest Nevada Poll
    LVRJ/SurveyUSA 8/16 – 8/21 869 LV 47 45 Obama +2

    This one is LV so probably in the ballpark.
    Obama hasn’t even begun to feel the sting of the Romney/Ryan warchest. Obama has outspent Romney by more than Double. $335 Million to $165 Million. Obama is spending more last month and this month than he is taking in. Romney has a massive advantage in Cash on Hand. And Obama is sending George Clooney to Geneva to shakedown FOREIGN contributions from leftist organizations.
    Obama is looking more desperate every day. All the Dummocrats can do is fixate on a ridiculous statement by some Missouri Congressman and other issues irrelevant to people’s pocketbooks. Obama is a campaigner, not a leader. Obama is truly the Amateur. He has lost the trust of middle America. He better come up with something dramatic real soon.

  51. 51

    @30-Yes you did. Here is your quote.
    14. Roger Rabbit spews:

    @12 You’re exaggerating. Darryl gives Obama only a 99.8% probability of winning.

    You obviously misspoke Roger Rabbit. Or are you dreaming again?

  52. 52

    Darryl is also giving older polls the same weight as more recent ones. I’m interested in trends. Clearly recent polls in almost every case shows Romney improving significantly over the very same poll done last month. That is telling. I don’t think the left-wing dumbos really understand what Darryl is doing here. Simple yes. Predicting results..hell no. Reasonable snapshot of today 8/22/12..hell no. I guess giving false hope to the deflated Left. I’m afraid that false hope will cause heads to explode come November. The left-wingers are mighty, mighty fragile Darryl. I guess they would rather see something flawed, meaningless as long as it’s positive for Barry Soetoro, the college lying cheat who claimed he was a foreign student to get preference.
    Romney certainly has some of this info. With hundreds of millions of cash, you can get pretty much anything like this. Can’t wait to see Obama caught with his hand in the cookie jar, cheating taxpayers at a young age.

  53. 53

    Todd Akins

    “I apologized but the liberal media is trying to make me drop out. Please stand w/ me tonight by signing my petition at akin.org/still-standing.”

    Now that is funny…

  54. 54

    @53–This thread is about Polls idiot.
    Where is the thread cop?
    There must be 20 unrelated posts on this thread, all from the unhinged left.
    Clean up the mess, would you?

  57. 57

    greg–
    I got 5-1 odds from 3 different Obama supporter friends. They would only allow me to put up $20 each. I have always found private wagering with emotional fools is much better than the casino’s. The link you posted has odds back on 7/21/12..over 1 month ago. They will be much slimmer today.
    So for a mere $60, I’m feeling pretty good that I will be handed back my $60 + $300 more (which I will use to buy dinner for my hunting buddies and listen compassionately as they whine about Jimmy Carter II)

  58. 58

    Paul Ryan, the guy who, along with his dear friend and legislative partner, Todd Akin, came up with the hair-slitting concept of “legitimate” and “illegitimate” rape, now says, “Rape is rape and there’s no splitting hairs over rape”.

    The only “bump” that might be realized by the Ryan VP selection would be the baby “bump” displayed by America’s rape victims if Ryan were to be elected, as these “small government” Republicans intend to use the weight of centralized federal government to force these women to bear and raise the child of their rapist.

  61. 61

    @59
    I’ve thought about that as well – the Nevada Mormon thingy.

    My understanding of Nevada trending blue has been due to the activist unionization of the casino industry – though I don’t know if that’s true, sounds credible.

    I wonder how much overlap there is between the two groups – unionized hospitality industry workers and Mormons. And what the numbers say about relative growth of the groups.

  62. 62

    @59
    Latino population likely also playing a roll – and we know that it is growing and tends very Democratic, though does not vote in numbers commensurate with it’s demographic power. Yet.

  63. 63

    With NV unemployment as high as it is

    For those workers staying afloat with the assist of unemployment benefits, the choice is a no-brainer, and it ain’t for the guy who likes to fire people.

  65. 65

    Mr. Cynical @ 52,

    That is precisely the kind of unhinged, babbling, rant that lets us know that you know that we will have four more years of a President Obama….

    Just sayin’.

  66. 66

    Yup, Paul Ryan, who co-sponsored a bill with dear friend and legislative partner, Todd Akin, to redefine rape with respect to abortions, is now saying that “rape is rape”.

    Chalk up another flip-flop in Ryan’s column. No wonder the Ryan “bump” is so insignificant.

    It must pain you trolls deeply to watch as your Galtian Lord, Paul Ryan, is neutered in public by a Republican presidential candidate that you guys don’t even like. If you don’t mind my asking, how much does that suck for you?

  67. 67

    @ 66

    Do you think that Paul Ryan’s perspective is evolving? Because I hear that can happen to politicians insofar as social issues are concerned, Doctor Steve.

  69. 69

    “Do you think that Paul Ryan’s perspective is evolving?”

    Republicans evolving? You mean as in “evolution”? LMFAO!! No, Ryan is most definitely not “evolving”, Bob. How silly of you. What Ryan is doing is he running away from a position that he’s held close to his heart until the moment he was called out on it due to fallout from the Akin fiasco. No, Bob, that is not “evolving”. Get real. Your party’s platform calls for a ban of abortion for rape and incest victims. You can’t run from that, Bob.

    No wonder the Ryan “bump” is so small.

  70. 70

    @ 69

    And Barack Obama ran away from a position he held close to his heart until the moment he was called out on it due to the fallout from a Biden gaffe.

  71. 71

    This is Ryan today, Bob, from Huffpo,

    “His policy is exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother. I’m comfortable with it because it’s a good step in the right direction. I’ll leave it at that.”

    “Right direction”? How do you square that with his follow up remark, Bob?

    Ryan reiterated that he is “proud” of his record and stood by the bill he co-sponsored with Akin to enforce tighter restrictions on abortions by including language around “forcible rape.”

    What a pathetic performance. I’m sure you agree, Bob. It pretty much matches his “bump” performance. Some would call both “lame”, but as you know, I’m kinder than that. “Pathetic” will suffice.

  72. 72

    65. Darryl spews:
    Mr. Cynical @ 52,

    That is precisely the kind of unhinged, babbling, rant that lets us know that you know that we will have four more years of a President Obama….

    Just sayin’.

    I’m not Mr. Cynical but continue to think that if it makes you feel better. He stopped posting over a year ago and is traveling last I heard. He doesn’t particularly care anymore who wins elections and is on a much better mission. But several others, including me, have taken up the battle.

    You fail to address anything in my post. You do weight old polls the same as current polls. Some of your analysis includes polls well over a month old. You are pretty good with words Darryl. Out of one side of your mouth, you are saying these do not project November. Very True. Yet you want people to somehow they reflect today 8/22/12. They do not.
    It is apparent this is a worthless analysis on your part. The sole purpose is to play with stats to try to keep the Soetoro base from totaly collapse. Other left-wing blogs are doing the same thing. There are plenty of attempts to spin the current state of the election. Your’s is appearing weaker and weaker.

  73. 73

    “Do you think that Paul Ryan’s perspective is evolving?”

    Rep. Paul “Bump” Ryan “evolved” so quickly, Bob!

    Odd, how people who don’t believe in evolution are now arguing that Ryan is an example of very fast evolution, which is called Punctuated Equilibria, at work.

    LMFAO!!! You guys are so fucked up!

  74. 74

    “I’m not Mr. Cynical but continue to think that if it makes you feel better. He stopped posting over a year ago and is traveling last I heard. He doesn’t particularly care anymore who wins elections and is on a much better mission. But several others, including me, have taken up the battle.”

    Oh, God, that’s funny! You were always such a loser, Klown, but this is just too damned much!

    Where’s the bump, Klown? I thought you guys were gonna talk about jobs? Sucks for you, but this campaign is going to be about how fucked up Republicans have become. How hilarious that someone as fucked up as a Klynical Klown shows up here trying to defend them. Yeah, that’s just what they needed, alright.

    Will someone please pass me the popcorn?

  77. 77

    “You need the giant size tube of Fleet.”

    You guys project too much. I’ve read somewhere in HA comment threads that it’s a Psych 101 thing. You might want to look into it because it invariably leads to our learning things about you twits that both you and ourselves would rather we hadn’t.

    You are seriously off-topic, Bob. The topic here is the miniscule bump that Romney realized from his horrible pick of Paul Ryan for VP candidate and Ryan’s utterly disasterous legislative relationship with Todd Akin as they sought to redefine rape in order to deny rape victims abortions. Please try to stay on-topic with future comments, Bob.

  78. 78

    Akin’s Idiocy (TM) (patent pending) is going viral globally. Unfortunately, he is tarnishing America’s image abroad; even Indonesia’s orangutans now think we’re a backward country. But they already didn’t want to come here and live in zoos anyway. Meanwhile an American expat working with African victims of war and rape penned this open letter to Mr. Akin:

    [Copied Text Deleted]
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/.....12930.html

    (Yes, I know HA’s comment policy discourages copying and pasting articles in full, because that goes beyond “fair use” under copyright laws. But this is a letter, not an article, and it’s an open letter whose author intends it to be read in full by as wide an audience as possible (that’s what open letters are), and I’m pretty sure her intent is to put it in the public domain, not copyright it. And last, but certainly not least, it merits a full reading. Therefore, I’m posting it in full, and I’ll take my chances with the HA comment police. If our trolls bitch about this, I don’t give a shit what they think.)

    [Note…It doesn’t matter if it is an open letter.]

  79. 79

    “even Indonesia’s orangutans now think we’re a backward people.”

    Well, Republicans are a backward people. We just need to help Indonesia’s orangutans understand that not all Americans are Republicans.

  81. 81

    Mr. Cynical @ 72,

    “I’m not Mr. Cynical but continue to think that if it makes you feel better.”

    Okay…we can pretend it’s not you.

    “You fail to address anything in my post.”

    That’s because your drivel doesn’t really merit a response. But, since you now seem to be begging for a response, I guess I can stoop to the task….

    “You do weight old polls the same as current polls.”

    Sort-of. My rules have a fixed window for what constitute a “current” poll. The frequency of polling is low enough that I am still using a one month window.

    “Some of your analysis includes polls well over a month old.”

    If there are no polls in a state within that one month window, I take the most recent poll. What would your preference be in the situation where there are no “current” polls? Oh, wait, let me guess…pull some numbers out of your ass, right?

    “You are pretty good with words Darryl.”

    Thanks!

    “Out of one side of your mouth, you are saying these do not project November.”

    Bull fucking shit, you lying asshole. I go out of my way to point out that the numbers are for a hypothetical election held now. I typically use this verbiage numerous times per post. You don’t seem to read very well….

    “Yet you want people to somehow they reflect today 8/22/12.”

    No…I don’t. Hence, I regularly point out that the result is the score right now.

    “They do not.”

    Ummm…I think you are engaging in a bit of projection there….

    “It is apparent this is a worthless analysis on your part.”

    You are free to feel so, but then DON’T FUCKING READ THEM, THEN, DUMBASS! Seriously…I’ll be doing these analyses through the election. If they vex you so much, skip over the posts. It might save you a few buck on blood pressure meds….

    “The sole purpose is to play with stats to try to keep the Soetoro base from totaly collapse.”

    No…the purpose is to come up with an objective measure of the probability each candidate would win in a hypothetical election held now.

    Serisously, dude, the statistical methods are well documented and completely objective. From there, the only thing driving the results are the polls. In 2008, I did the same analyses during long periods when McCain was leading as when Obama was leading. This year, I’ll do the same analyses whether Obama or Romney is in the lead. (And, if my 2008 experience is any indication, if Romney takes the lead, some Obama supporters will be bellyaching over the analyses just like you are doing now!)

    “Other left-wing blogs are doing the same thing.”

    Really? Doing Monte Carlo analyses with completely transparent methods? What other blogs are those?

    “There are plenty of attempts to spin the current state of the election.”

    Typically, I’m happy to spin things. But I really do avoid that in my election analyses posts.

    “Your’s is appearing weaker and weaker.”

    Uh-huh…and just click you heels three times and repeat, “There’s no place like Wingnutostan,”…and Mitt Romney will become Preznit.

  82. 82

    @ 77

    Er, Doctor Steve?

    The Ryan bump is occurring where it counts:

    Romney has improved his standing in six crucial swing-state polls since the Ryan announcement: Michigan, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com.....z24IlTW4Bm

    Check out OH, VA, WI, Doctor Steve. I won’t get into MI’s recent poll results. Oh, and IA?

    Keep on reading the nationwide poll results and telling yourself they’re accurate, Doctor Steve. It will make our conversation on the first Tuesday evening in November all the more fun. For me.

  84. 84

    “It will make our conversation on the first Tuesday evening in November all the more fun. For me.”

    Good luck with that Ryan “bump”, Bob.

    For my part, I’m looking forward to you disappearing that day, Bob, as you did after the SCOTUS ACA ruling. That’s what happens when dumbfucks like you spike the ball on the fifty yard line like an fucking idiot. When you finally realize in November that your ass has been kicked, it’ll be a far more humiliating experience for you than it should have been. But you bring it on yourself, loser, so I look forward to your deep pain. You won’t share it with us, of course, but all the same, we’ll know what’s coming down on you that day.

  85. 85

    Wanna talk about how much the Ryan “bump” sucks for you, Bob? I’d be glad to listen.

    New poll in Wisconsin.

    Obama-Biden 49%
    Romney-Ryan 46%

  86. 86

    @79 One way you can do that is don’t just stand in front of the cage gawking; throw in a banana. That way the orang will know you’re a Democrat, because Republicans don’t feed anyone, no matter how hungry they are.

  87. 87

    Darryl @ 83

    Yup, they go 49 – 46 for Obama but 50-41 for Thompson over Baldwin.

    I don’t think I’ve ever said WI will go red. I HAVE said, and repeatedly, that Wisconsin’s in play, that unions have helped make it that way, and in @ 82 I pointed out that WI received a Ryan bump.

    How much of that is stupid, I don’t know. I don’t think any of it is inaccurate.

    Regarding WI Senate, do you think Thompson’s name recognition is a reasonable explanation for the disconnect between the poll data at prez vs. Senate levels?

  88. 88

    @ 85.

    See @ 87.

    You said the bump was miniscule. I pointed out places in which it was not.

    What’s this poll result vs the last Marquette poll result?

    Current O/R is 49/46.

    Previous O/R is 50/44.7, August 5th.

    So in 17 days, Romney/Ryan are 2.3 points better than before the VP selection, according to WI poll data.

    That qualifies as a ‘bump’ to me.

  89. 89

    @84 The problem with these dumbfucks is none of the countless humiliating experiences they suffer ever turn into humbling experiences.

  90. 90

    @87 Well, Baldwin’s not much of a vote-getter, is she? Even Walker can beat her. We may have to give you that one. (But given GOPers’ propensity for fucking up a sure thing — see, e.g., Missouri — it’s still too early to write off this or any other race.) And, anyway, Thompson isn’t the goose-stepping tea partier you guys are trying to fill Congress with. He thinks. So his winning that seat might not give you quite the same policy payoff you’re expecting.

  91. 91

    @ 84

    I’m hoping not to disappear, then, Doctor Steve. It was a death in my family coinciding with ACA decision that caused my absence in early July – some things are more important than being on HA, unless one is RR.

    Appreciate the reminder. You have a nice day, too.

  92. 92

    @ 84

    I’ll have to be around at least one day past election day, anyway. Either to pay off, or collect on, a wager.

  93. 93

    @87 “I don’t think I’ve ever said WI will go red. I HAVE said … that Wisconsin’s in play … and … received a Ryan bump.”

    What good does that do you if the state doesn’t “go red” for Romney?

  94. 94

    “I’m hoping not to disappear, then, Doctor Steve.”

    In other words, if you lose, you’re out of here. I already knew that, Bob. Splitsville, as you did after SCOTUS ACA.

    “unless one is RR.”

    You mean Roger, the guy who didn’t post for a couple of weeks when his father was deathly ill and he had to care for him? That Roger?

    Fail. Again.

  95. 95

    @92 If you were dumb enough to bet on Romney, I hope for your sake that you didn’t give even odds.

  96. 96

    @ 93

    What good does that do you if the state doesn’t “go red” for Romney?

    It’s one more state where Obama has to play defense. Spend time. Spend money. Protect those 10 EVs.

    If NV is within 2, if CO is close, if there’s FL and NH to contest, Obama REALLY doesn’t want to spend time in formerly safe states.

    There is only so much money and so much time. Obama has to go far and wide, while Romney/Ryan’s interests are much more concentrated.

    Make sense?

  97. 97

    Bob,

    “I don’t think I’ve ever said WI will go red.”

    And I have never said you said so!

    “I HAVE said, and repeatedly, that Wisconsin’s in play, that unions have helped make it that way, and in @ 82 I pointed out that WI received a Ryan bump.”

    I don’t think you know squat about Wisconsin. Your “Unions made it that way” bullshit smacks of uncritical dittoheadism.

    “How much of that is stupid, I don’t know. I don’t think any of it is inaccurate.”

    The “stupid” part was about cherry-picking a single poll, dummy.

    “Regarding WI Senate, do you think Thompson’s name recognition is a reasonable explanation for the disconnect between the poll data at prez vs. Senate levels?”

    It is simpler than that. He was a reasonably popular four-term governor of the state.

  98. 98

    Bob @ 88,

    “You said the bump was miniscule. I pointed out places in which it was not.”

    You’re engaging in mental masturbation…apparently to make yourself feel better.

    For example…

    “What’s this poll result vs the last Marquette poll result?

    Current O/R is 49/46.

    Previous O/R is 50/44.7, August 5th.

    Umm…did you bother looking at the margin of errors of the two polls.

    “So in 17 days, Romney/Ryan are 2.3 points better than before the VP selection, according to WI poll data.”

    A statistician would say that the difference may be just as easily explained as sampling variability. The two results are not significantly different from each other.

    But…you know, whatever it takes to make you feel better…

  99. 99

    New poll in Wisconsin of likely left handed Lithuanian lesbians, of color.
    Obama-Biden 99%
    Romney-Ryan 1%
    Undecided 1%
    Wahoo!

  100. 100

    The HA comment threads sure have gone downhill this week. Nothing here except chest-beating trolls trying to talk themselves into believing Romney isn’t a throwaway candidate who was given the nomination because everyone with any heft decided to wait for 2016. Letting Romney run against Obama gets him out of their hair and also solves the problem of finding a sacrificial lamb. Best of all, when the recriminations begin, they can blame him.

  101. 101

    @ 97


    I don’t think you know squat about Wisconsin. Your “Unions made it that way” bullshit smacks of uncritical dittoheadism.

    I’ll bet a fourth of the time I’ve spent online in nonprofessional pursuits in 2012 had to do with WI politics. Hours perusing blueblogger, jsonline, althouse, capitaltimes, hostmadison, among others. I know more about WI politics than I do about WA politics.

    The recall occurred because of unions. Because of the recall, there was a turnkey operation Walker’s crew handed to Romney on June 6th.

    Wisconsin’s a tossup. Last time WI voted red for president was Reagan, when 48 other states did so, too.

    I doubt it’s a tossup because of Ryan. It might go red because of him, but it’s going to be contested because the unions made it possible for Romney to do so without a whole lot of work on his own.

  102. 102

    @99 I assume the “Romney-Ryan” and “Undecided” voters are the same group (because otherwise the sum isn’t 100%)?

  104. 104

    @101 Darryl is a Wisconsin native, jackass. He’s lived there. He knows the place in a way you can’t divine from online reading.

  105. 105

    “they can blame him”

    And Ryan, of course, for selling out. If Ryan had stood his ground and declared, “I hate women as much as Todd Akin and, like him, I intend to force the sluts of America to bear and raise the children of the men who rape them and, no, we will not offer them any assistance whatsofuckingever.” For good measure he could have thrown in, “And of course Mitt shouldn’t pay any taxes, and neither should I. Taxes are for you inferior bastards to pay, not us.”

    Now if Ryan had done that, his future with the wingnut party would have been secured, But, no, he sold them out. He’ll pay for that, I’m sure.

  106. 106

    Bob,

    “It’s one more state where Obama has to play defense. Spend time. Spend money. Protect those 10 EVs.”

    Dude…all I can say is that claims like this demonstrate that you’ve become totally immersed and lost in your own bullshit.

    All else being equal, it is a hell of a lot cheaper to defend a small lead than it is to overcome a deficit and turn it into a lead.

    “There is only so much money and so much time. Obama has to go far and wide, while Romney/Ryan’s interests are much more concentrated.”

    Consider how silly your statement is. Time is really on Obama’s side, as he would almost certainly win an election held now.

    Alternatively, there is only so much time and so much money for Romney to overcome his ~45 electoral vote deficit.

    You seem to be suggesting that Romney is somehow “looking good”, being significantly behind.

    That funny. Totally out of touch with reality, but funny.

    “Make sense?”

    Seems like a great big case of self-delusion, to me.

  107. 107

    @103 Regardless of what the maps say, I don’t think Nevada is in play. Colorado is like Washington, the rural areas are red as the fires of hell, but population is concentrated in blue urban areas.

  108. 108

    @ 101


    @101 Darryl is a Wisconsin native, jackass. He’s lived there. He knows the place in a way you can’t divine from online reading.

    I did not know his geographic history but it’s not a relative measure – he essentially said I was clueless about WI politics. I know what I know from what I read and it’s enough to form an opinion, a reasoned one, even. My opinion is that unions spent tens of millions of dollars trying to depose Scott Walker, and Scott Walker had to defend himself, and in doing so created quite the statewide infrastructure. When the election was over, he turned that infrastructure – all the voter databases, email addresses, up-to-the-minute information important to a statewide election – over to the Romney campaign. Hence my claim that Romney’s good fortunes in WI are largely due to the fallout from the union effort to topple Walker. Thanks again, unions!

    Has not having personal, boots-on-the-ground knowledge
    about a topic, any topic, EVER prevented you from weighing in, RR?

    Didn’t think so.

  109. 109

    @105 “And Ryan, of course, for selling out.”

    Ryan’s just showing his true colors. He’s been a hypocrite all along.

  110. 110

    @ 106


    All else being equal, it is a hell of a lot cheaper to defend a small lead than it is to overcome a deficit and turn it into a lead.

    And it’s more expensive to defend a small lead than a comfortable one. Which can be problematic when cash is running short.

  111. 111

    @110 There are times when no amount of money can save a flawed candidate or turn around a losing campaign.

  112. 112

    @ 106

    Yes, after outspending Romney, what, 2.5 – 1?, and after spending more than a hundred million dollars in little more than a month (back in May!), while Romney was recovering from a primary battle, Obama has a small lead.

    And for the final two months, Romney will have a financial advantage of potentially more than a billion dollars and Obama will have an economy in further decline to try to explain away.

    You will pardon me if I’m not reaching for the Kleenex just yet.

  113. 113

    @112

    Big error in this – intended to say that Romney’s financial advantage – including PAC money – could be as great as a QUARTER OF A billion dollars.

    Apologies.

  114. 114

    Bob @ 101,

    “I’ll bet a fourth of the time I’ve spent online in nonprofessional pursuits in 2012 had to do with WI politics.”

    OOooooohhh. What we have us here a “self-learned” Wisconsin political expert!

    You know what works better than “self-learning”? Living in the state and participating in political system. Having boatloads of relatives living there. And deeply caring about the state.

    “Hours perusing…althouse…”

    Are you fucking kidding me? Althouse?!? Seriously, Bob, she is the WORST amateur propagandist EVARRRR. (I mean, even worse than you!)

    But…thanks for fessing up. I’ve never interacted with anyone who willingly fessed up to reading Althouse.

    “I know more about WI politics than I do about WA politics.”

    I don’t think so, although you may well be more indoctrinated with right-wing bullshit about Wisconsin than Washington….

    “The recall occurred because of unions.”

    No, Bob, that’s not why the recalls occurred.

    “Because of the recall, there was a turnkey operation Walker’s crew handed to Romney on June 6th.”

    Those are the great insight on Wisconsin you learned from the InnerTubes?

    (*Snicker*)

    “Wisconsin’s a tossup.

    No…the polling evidence suggests that, at this point, Wisconsin is pretty solidly in Obama’s column. I mean, even if we restrict ourselves to the four post-Ryan polls, an Obama win would be almost certain in an election held now. When you add to that the possibility that any “bump” from Ryan is likely to be transient, it’s pretty silly to argue that “Wisconsin is a toss-up”–even before today’s poll came out.

    “Last time WI voted red for president was Reagan, when 48 other states did so, too.”

    Yes…I voted in Wisconsin in that election.

    “….It might go red because of him, but it’s going to be contested because the unions made it possible for Romney to do so without a whole lot of work on his own.”

    Holy shit, are you deluded! As I said, you don’t know shit about Wisconsin.

  116. 116

    “The question … is how much Akin … will hurt the GOP.

    “Party officials say it hurts a lot. Republicans were relying on … Missouri … in their bid to capture the U.S. Senate in November. …

    “When it comes to Mitt Romney presidential hopes, GOP officials are upset that the furor over Akin’s comments amplifies the party platform adopted Tuesday calling for a constitutional ban on abortion that makes no exceptions for rape or incest. … Republicans also bemoan … the national discussion has turned to divisive social issues which could repel swing voters ….”

    http://politicalticker.blogs.c.....-stays-in/

    Roger Rabbit Commentary: Akin is God’s will at work. Just not in the way Goobers expected.

  117. 117

    @ 114

    6 days ago
    CNN Electoral Map: Wisconsin moves to true “toss up”

    Posted by
    CNN Political Unit
    (CNN) – CNN Thursday turned the important battleground state of Wisconsin from “lean Obama” to true “toss up” on its electoral map, in the wake of Mitt Romney’s naming of House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, a seven term congressman from the Badger state, as his running mate.

    One contributing factor behind CNN’s move was a new poll that matched two others from last week that indicate that the presidential contest in Wisconsin is close. While Ryan’s announcement did not dramatically alter the presidential poll numbers in Wisconsin, it did change the way both campaigns viewed the state of the race in the state.

    http://politicalticker.blogs.c.....e-toss-up/

    I don’t know as much as you do about Wisconsin, I agree. Never claimed otherwise.

    I know what I read. You think WI is ‘pretty solidly in Obama’s column’, perhaps based on a brand-new poll. CNN very recently thought otherwise.

  118. 118

    Bob @ 110,

    “And it’s more expensive to defend a small lead than a comfortable one. Which can be problematic when cash is running short.”

    Yet, it still takes MUCH more money to overcome that small lead and reverse it than it does to defend the lead. You somehow seem to miss that.

    Have you ever attempted analyzing these things OBJECTIVELY? Do you even know what the term means?

  119. 119

    @ 118

    I understand that Romney has to do more to move the numbers than Obama does. I really do.

    I’m looking at :

    1. Trends – Obama’s not exactly pulling away. Polls are tightening.

    2. Ryan – You have to admit, it’s 2-1 out there on the stump. Biden isn’t fooling anyone right now. Obama has no wingman.

    3. Money. ’nuff said.

    4. Economy. GDP growth is falling. Unemployment is ticking up. There are three monthly unemployment figures to be reported before Election Day, I believe. Q3 GDP comes out as well.

    I believe that 1, 3, and 4 ARE objective.

  120. 120

    Bob @ 112,

    “Yes, after outspending Romney, what, 2.5 – 1?, and after spending more than a hundred million dollars in little more than a month (back in May!), while Romney was recovering from a primary battle, Obama has a small lead.”

    Why is the strategy relevant (or are you crying, “Unfair!!!”???). The fact is, the Obama strategy seems to have worked. He has a pretty solid lead in the election at this point.

    “And for the final two months, Romney will have a financial advantage of potentially more than a billion dollars…”

    Could be…but he has a lot of ground to make up. Those ~56 electoral votes are going to be very expensive to purchase.

    “…and Obama will have an economy in further decline to try to explain away.”

    I think it is always “special” when Wingnuts pin their hopes on America being harmed.

  121. 121

    Darryl @ 120, 106

    You may have mistyped but it was 45, then 56 EV advantage for Obama. Which source are you using for that? NYT? RCP? HA?

    I’d at least like to look at the column distribution of the relevant states.

    If ‘a lot of ground’ is 1-2 points in 2 tossup states, I think I beg to differ. Would like to know your reference frame.

    I was not criticizing Obama’s strategy. I was pointing out that a lot of money was spent to discredit Romney before he got his sea legs. He’s still standing. That’s money not available the next time around.

  122. 122

    Bob,

    “1. Trends – Obama’s not exactly pulling away. Polls are tightening.”

    Polls frequently tighten during the late stages of an election (2008 being a huge exception). But Romney doen’t simply need tightening, he need to turn-over states. That is a much bigger task.

    “2. Ryan – You have to admit, it’s 2-1 out there on the stump. Biden isn’t fooling anyone right now. Obama has no wingman.”

    Bullshit. Two reasons.

    1. You WingNutJobbers throw a lot of pot shots at Biden. But, as far as I can tell, he is doing a terrific job making lots of campaign stops and doing fundraisers.

    2. I don’t think it is unrecognized, even among the True Believers that Ryan comes with some serious liabilities. Some political press has suggested that Romney picked Ryan against the wishes of his advisors. I’m not sure I really believe that, but it would explain how a person with Ryan’s liabilities got picked….

    “3. Money. ’nuff said.”

    Both sides have that!

    “4. Economy. GDP growth is falling. Unemployment is ticking up. There are three monthly unemployment figures to be reported before Election Day, I believe. Q3 GDP comes out as well.”

    The economy is sluggish, not failing. I don’t think the little improvements or slides will make much difference between now and November. Otherwise, it is hard to explain Obama’s lead now.

    But…it’s interesting that you guys are pinning you hopes on failure in the Economy. Well…good luck with that one… Maybe you can pray for another massive terrorist attack. That might work better!

    “I believe that 1, 3, and 4 ARE objective.”

    Uh-huh.

  123. 123

    Bob,

    “You may have mistyped but it was 45, then 56 EV advantage for Obama. Which source are you using for that? NYT? RCP? HA?”

    The 45 was a typo. I was using the average electoral votes from the Monte Carlo analysis. See the very top of this page. (Romney has 213, needs 269 to win.)

    “I’d at least like to look at the column distribution of the relevant states.”

    I’m not sure what you mean by “Column distributions of the relevant states”, but if you want the distributions of election outcomes by state, it can easily be derived from the polling page that I put up with each analysis (click on the number of polls for any state in the last table).

    If ‘a lot of ground’ is 1-2 points in 2 tossup states, I think I beg to differ. Would like to know your reference frame.

    “I was not criticizing Obama’s strategy. I was pointing out that a lot of money was spent to discredit Romney before he got his sea legs. He’s still standing. That’s money not available the next time around.”

    What. What? Obama spent more money up front and has a quite strong lead over Romney. That seems to suggest the spending strategy has been successful. I mean, consider the alternative of having spent less money but being behind. I think I’d prefer the former strategy, but reasonable people can disagree on that, I suppose.

  124. 124

    @ 122

    Periodically the economy is sluggish.

    This goes beyond sluggish:

    Fed minutes show active discussion of QE3
    A new ‘substantial’ round of bond buys considered

    http://www.marketwatch.com/sto.....=afterbell

    We are, arguably, very near the newer NBER definition of recession. A recession can be defined during a period of declining growth, now.

    I assume you noted that I said GDP growth is falling and not that the economy is failing.

    No, I’m not rooting for failure.

  125. 125

    Speaking of wingnut “bumps”, I’m sure this kind of talk will get a bigger bump than wingnuts watching Ryan sell out.

    From Huffpo,

    Tom Head, a county judge in Lubbock, Texas,

    Head told FOX34 that Lubbock’s law enforcement needed extra tax dollars in order to be prepared for a full-scale uprising, which he said could be a byproduct of Obama’s reelection. According to Head, the president is seeking to sign a variety of United Nations treaties that will effectively take precedent over domestic law.

    “He’s going to try to hand over the sovereignty of the United States to the U.N., and what is going to happen when that happens?” Head asked. “I’m thinking the worst. Civil unrest, civil disobedience, civil war maybe. And we’re not just talking a few riots here and demonstrations, we’re talking Lexington, Concord, take up arms and get rid of the guy.”

    Head continued, delving deeper into his hypothesis and claiming that he was prepared to join the hypothetical resistance.

    “Now what’s going to happen if we do that, if the public decides to do that? He’s going to send in U.N. troops. I don’t want ’em in Lubbock County. OK. So I’m going to stand in front of their armored personnel carrier and say, ‘You’re not coming in here,’” the judge said. “And the sheriff, I’ve already asked him, I said, ‘You gonna back me?’ He said, ‘Yeah, I’ll back you.’ Well, I don’t want a bunch of rookies back there. I want trained, equipped, seasoned veteran officers to back me.”

    Yeah, that’s the kind of shit wingnuts need to hear. How strange. A wingnut wants an increase in taxes. Or else the uppity Kenyan and his New World Order black helicopters will come and get us!

  126. 126

    @ 123

    OK, got it.

    He needs 56.

    FL would give him 29 of them. Your summary has him down 50.5 – 49.5 and he’s up in the most three recent polls there.

    If he takes FL, then he needs 27.

    Two-plus months.

    I would certainly prefer Romney be leading right now. We differ in our perceptions of the magnitude of the gap he needs to close.

    Thanks for the give and take, Darryl.

  127. 127

    Bob,

    “I know what I read. You think WI is ‘pretty solidly in Obama’s column’, perhaps based on a brand-new poll. CNN very recently thought otherwise.”

    If you actually read the reasoning behind CNNs decision they point out numerous reason why they changed it to a toss-up, including projections on what may happen in the future. (That is, they are projecting the outcome for November.)

    My assessment is based on the empirical evidence provided by polling data right now.

    Yesterday’s analysis gave Obama a 96.9% probability of winning Wisconsin in an election held now. The new Marquette poll is O+6. To me, that says that “WI is pretty solidly in Obama’s column” at this point.

  128. 128

    Darryl @ 127

    I’m at work and didn’t look carefully. I thought Marquette was 49-46 (see @ 83). Isn’t that +3? Maybe I misread your spew.

  129. 129

    Bob,

    “FL would give him 29 of them. Your summary has him down 50.5 – 49.5 and he’s up in the most three recent polls there.”

    Not how it works. Notice that Obama won FL 67.5% of the simulated elections and Romney won 32.5% of them. That means that the average number of electoral votes was allocated approximately 29*67.6% = 19.6 to Obama and 29*32.5% = 9.4 to Romney.

    If you assume Romney wins Florida, then you can add 19.6 to Romney’s total.

    See how that works?

    “I would certainly prefer Romney be leading right now. We differ in our perceptions of the magnitude of the gap he needs to close.”

    The difference is that my perception is an objective function of the evidence that comes through polls. (Not that polls are perfect, but I don’t know of a more objective way to assess who is in the lead and by how much.)

    “Thanks for the give and take, Darryl.”

    Awww…gosh, geee…you’re welcome, and thank you, I guess :-)

  132. 132

    Bob,

    “I’m at work and didn’t look carefully. I thought Marquette was 49-46 (see @ 83). Isn’t that +3? Maybe I misread your spew.”

    It’s both. The poll has Obama up 50% to 44% among Registered voters. I use Likely Voters (49% to 46%) in my analyses, but I just glanced at the wrong line when writing the comment above.

    The point is, starting with a 96.9% probability and adding another poll showing Obama in the lead is going to push that probability up!

  133. 133

    Now, I thought I read around here that voter fraud never occurs unless it’s perpetuated by Rethughlicans.

    Congressional candidate Gemma alleges voter fraud linked to U.S. Rep. Cicilline

    http://news.providencejournal......2;115.html

    Here’s one Democrat accusing another of voter fraud, though.

    It’s not hard to believe. The accused is already on record admitting he concealed Providence’s financial woes while he was mayor there.

  134. 134

    Man, the way you all are spouting numbers, I bet you played a lot of D&D 3.5 when you all were younger.

  135. 135

    Maybe you guys can get a “I feel sorry for wingnuts” bump.

    From Huffpo,

    Meteorologists and Republican National Convention planners grew more concerned Wednesday about the potential for Tropical Storm Isaac to develop into a hurricane aimed squarely at Tampa, Fla., the host city of the GOP convention beginning Monday.

    In response to the increasingly dire reports, Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn said safety concerns would trump politics, even if that might mean shutting down the four-day convention.

  136. 136

    Oh, I can see what you’re up to now. You’re trying make up for the lack of a Ryan bump by fishing for a bump from the “I love whiners” segment of the population. Heh, I see that Scott Brown got the RNC memo.

    From Huffpo,

    “I don’t need Professor Warren talking, or speaking, or commenting on my votes,” Brown said Tuesday, adding that she shouldn’t be “distorting and misleading the voters about where I stand on issues.”

  137. 137

    Damn. The GOP quest for a bump to make up for the Ryan fail is starting to become surreal. Here, they go after the, well, I’m not sure what, really.

    https://www.nationalreview.com/nrd/articles/313504/boss

    You want off-the-charts status? Check out the curriculum vitae of one Willard M. Romney: $200 million in the bank (and a hell of a lot more if he didn’t give so much away), apex alpha executive, CEO, chairman of the board, governor, bishop, boss of everything he’s ever touched. Son of the same, father of more. It is a curious scientific fact (explained in evolutionary biology by the Trivers-Willard hypothesis — Willard, notice) that high-status animals tend to have more male offspring than female offspring, which holds true across many species, from red deer to mink to Homo sap. The offspring of rich families are statistically biased in favor of sons — the children of the general population are 51 percent male and 49 percent female, but the children of the Forbes billionaire list are 60 percent male. Have a gander at that Romney family picture: five sons, zero daughters. Romney has 18 grandchildren, and they exceed a 2:1 ratio of grandsons to granddaughters (13:5). When they go to church at their summer-vacation home, the Romney clan makes up a third of the congregation. He is basically a tribal chieftain.

    Hmm, they seem to be going after the “tribal” woman bump. Are you Klowns thinking that these tribal women like having their body controlled and probed by Republican males with medical instruments? Perhaps you’re hoping that tribal women get off on “illegitimate” rape or something? Good luck with that, Bob. No, really. Good luck with that.

  138. 138

    I dunno, Bob, maybe you’ve given up and you’re just hoping for a bump from the male “I was the one who was forceably raped” crowd.

    American Family Association’s Bryan Fischer, from the aptly named Crooks & Liars,

    FISCHER: So everybody is gang tackling, uh, Todd Akin. Now you talk about a um, forceable, uh, situation, you talk about somebody being a victim of kind of forceable assault, that would be Todd Akin.

  139. 139

    Take a look at the Senate Polls out the last 2 days on RealClearPolitics–
    http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....ls/senate/

    Almost all Republican leads..
    Brown, Thompson, Rehberg..even Linda McMahon.

    Like I said before, all these polls are remotely good for is looking for trends. Polls are trending Republican. Momentum is a bitch to turn around when obama has squandered the Democrat warchest. I surprised at all these Republican trends. Not sure that the Democrat effort to tie every Republican to that fool Akin is going to work. Akin is an Engineer in addition to being a former Marine. I think his engineering background makes it tough for him to assess the damage he has done to himself because of 1 or 2 words. I’m no fan of his but he votes Conservative. He’ll still probably win as McCaskill is a sitting duck.

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