HorsesAss.Org

  • Home
  • About HA
  • Advertise
  • Archives
  • Donate

Poll Analysis: The race is stable

by Darryl — Monday, 10/29/12, 11:09 pm


Obama Romney
95.9% probability of winning 4.1% probability of winning
Mean of 303 electoral votes Mean of 235 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney with a 93.4% to a 6.6% probability of winning an election now. Obama led 294 to 244 electoral votes

Today’s polls through about noon were…

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA LA Times 15-Oct 21-Oct 1440 2.9 54 40 O+14
CO ARG 25-Oct 28-Oct 600 4.0 47 48 R+1
FL PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 687 3.7 49 48 O+1
FL CNN/OR 25-Oct 28-Oct 770 3.5 48 48 tie
MD Baltimore Sun 20-Oct 23-Oct 801 3.5 55 36 O+19
MA UNH 24-Oct 28-Oct 583 4.1 52 38 O+14
MN Mason-Dixon 23-Oct 25-Oct 800 3.5 47 44 O+3
MO Mason-Dixon 23-Oct 25-Oct 625 4.0 41 54 R+13
NE Wiese Res 23-Oct 25-Oct 679 3.8 40 54 R+14
NH PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 874 3.3 49 47 O+2
NJ Philadelphia Inquirer 23-Oct 25-Oct 601 4.0 51 41 O+10
NM Research & Polling 23-Oct 25-Oct 662 4.0 50 41 O+9
NY SurveyUSA 23-Oct 25-Oct 554 4.1 61.7 32.7 O+28.9
NC Elon 21-Oct 26-Oct 1238 2.8 45.4 45.3 O+0.1
NC Rasmussen 25-Oct 25-Oct 500 4.5 46 52 R+6
OH Rasmussen 28-Oct 28-Oct 750 4.0 48 50 R+2
OH Gravis Marketing 27-Oct 27-Oct 730 3.6 50 49 O+1
OH PPP 26-Oct 28-Oct 718 3.7 51 47 O+4
OH Cincinnati Enquirer 18-Oct 23-Oct 1015 3.1 49 49 tie
PA Philadelphia Inquirer 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 49 43 O+6
TN Middle Tennessee State U 16-Oct 21-Oct 609 4.0 59 34 O+25
VA Gravis Marketing 26-Oct 26-Oct 625 3.9 48 48 tie
VA Washington Post 22-Oct 26-Oct 1228 3.5 51 47 O+4

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 95,877 times and Romney wins 4,123 times (including the 363 ties). Obama received (on average) 303 to Romney’s 235 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 95.9% probability of winning and Romney would have a 4.1% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 29 Oct 2011 to 29 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

My first morphine experience

by Darryl — Monday, 10/29/12, 10:51 pm

Over lunch today, I was putting together a post with the latest election analysis. I started feeling bad. It got worse, and to make a long story short, I ended up in the ER.

The diagnosis is pancreatitis. So, I’ll be in the hospital for a couple of days, receiving morphine for the pain. I will try to finish an abbreviated poll analysis, but it will include only polls through this morning.

Morphine makes me tired.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 10/27/12, 1:28 am

Stephen: voting and hormones.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Sensual Voting:

  • Lose it to Barack Obama:
  • Young Turks: Lena Dunham ‘First Time’ voting commercial controversy.
  • One Minute News: Your first time.

Mark Fiore: Suzilection.

Andy Cobb: Why everything sucks now (hint…Ohio).

Thom: More Republicans arrested for election fraud.

Willard! (and Friends):

  • Maddow: Ryan, a liability to Romney’s moderate myth, is kept hidden
  • Sharpton: Mitt’s ‘fake it ’til you make it’
  • Mitt pours a glass of water.
  • Sam Seder: Romney’s got Iran covered, “We’ll just arrest Ahmadinejad!”
  • Bill Press: Mitt Romney and YOUR sex life.
  • Maddow: Mitt Romney’s willingness to say anything makes integrity the issue
  • SlateTV: Romney surrogate says Powell endorsed Obama because he’s black.
  • Young Mitt learns about poor people.
  • Conan: Something missing in Eastwood’s new Romney ad.
  • Young Turks: Romney surrogate Sununu is a racist.
  • Bill Press: You cannot believe a thing Mitt says.
  • One Minute News: Obama calls Mitt a bullshitter?
  • Bill Maher with some more secretly recorded video.
  • Pap: Romney is a Foreign Policy Disaster.
  • Sam Seder on Iran’s route to the sea.

Leno: Obama on Donald Trump:

Key & Peele: Luther on Romney’s Debate Face.

Thom: Has Darrell Issa committed treason by leaking identities of Syrian informants?

Mockit TV: The Donald’s big announcement.

Ann Telnaes: McCain criticizes Powell.

God’s Little Rape Snowflakes:

  • Sam Seder: Richard Mourdock, ‘Pregnancy from rape? God intended it!’
  • Bill Press: Emily’s list responds to Mourdock
  • Tina Fey on Republican Rape (via Slog).
  • Young Turks: Republican rape panels.
  • SlateTV: GOP candidate says Rape births are “something God intended”
  • Stephen on Mourdock (via Slog).
  • Conservative Mitt endorses Richard Mourdock
  • Maddow: Mourdock reaffirms opposition to abortion rights of rape victims
  • Bill Press: Chorus of Republican voices trying to immunize the brutality of rape
  • Obama with Leno on Mourdock
  • Romney and Republicans on Women’s Health:See a pattern?
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: Richard Mourdock, ‘I Know’ I gained voters after ‘rape comments’
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Rape, abortion and taxes.
  • Sam Seder: Todd “legitimate rape” Akin compares opponent to a dog
  • Young Turks: GOP’s ‘Easy,’ ‘Enjoyable,’ ‘Honest’ rape.
  • Jon: Rape and incest and abortion (via TalkingPointsMemo):
  • When will Romney stand up to extremism?
  • Sam Seder: Mourdock’s apology, “Sorry…that YOU don’t like God’s rape”.

The Ann Coulter 60 second karma smackdown.

Pap: Republican perverts trying to control your sex life. Part I.

Pap: Republican perverts trying to control your sex life. Part II.

Indecision Forever: The five funniest Congressional ads.

Michelle’s plan to get people to vote.

This Week in G.O.P. Voter Suppression:

  • Young Turks: Maricopa County Latinos get false voting information.
  • Sam Seder: G.O.P. ongoing voter suppression efforts.
  • Ed: “True the Vote” thuggery.
  • Sharpton: Investigating Tagg Romney’s ties to voting machines

GAJILLIONAIRES: Zombie Romney.

Leno: Obama comments on the debates.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Stephen make a $1 million dollar offer to Donald Trump.

Powell endorses Obama…“not sure which Romney we’d be getting”.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican—Oregon edition: .

MockTV: Bidenetics.

White House: West Wing Week.

Maddow: Union rights victory in Ohio becomes Obama asset.

Ann Telnaes: Romney and Obama clones on drones.

Thom: more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Poll Analysis: Romney gains EVs, Obama gains probability

by Darryl — Friday, 10/26/12, 7:32 pm


Obama Romney
93.4% probability of winning 6.6% probability of winning
Mean of 294 electoral votes Mean of 244 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My analysis two days ago showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by 299 to 239 electoral votes, and Obama with a probability of winning a hypothetical election now by 93%. I pointed out that the race had stabilized and, perhaps, slightly swung in favor of Obama.

Today’s polls are consistent with the idea that the race has stabilized. We see Romney bouncing up a handful of electoral votes, but Obama’s gaining a bit more in his probability of winning an election now.

Here are the 36 new polls covering 16 states released over the past couple of days:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ Rasmussen 21-Oct 21-Oct 500 4.5 44 52 R+8
CA PPIC 14-Oct 21-Oct 993 4.0 53 41 O+12
CO Purple Poll 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 47 46 O+1
CO PPP 23-Oct 25-Oct 904 3.3 51 47 O+4
CO Keating 23-Oct 24-Oct 502 4.4 48 45 O+3
CO PNA 23-Oct 24-Oct 500 4.4 46 43 O+3
CO Marist 23-Oct 24-Oct 1128 2.9 48 48 tie
FL Rasmussen 25-Oct 25-Oct 750 4.0 48 50 R+2
FL Gravis Marketing 24-Oct 24-Oct 1182 2.8 49 50 R+1
FL PNA 23-Oct 24-Oct 600 4.0 47 45 O+2
FL Susquehanna 22-Oct 24-Oct 1001 3.1 46 51 R+5
IA Gravis Marketing 24-Oct 24-Oct 517 4.3 50 46 O+4
IA PPP 23-Oct 24-Oct 690 3.7 49 47 O+2
MN St Cloud State U 17-Oct 26-Oct 601 5.0 53 45 O+8
NV CallFire 23-Oct 25-Oct 909 3.4 50 46 O+4
NV Gravis Marketing 24-Oct 24-Oct 955 3.2 50 49 O+1
NV Marist 23-Oct 24-Oct 1042 3.0 50 47 O+3
NH New England College 23-Oct 25-Oct 571 4.1 49 46 O+3
NM PPP 23-Oct 24-Oct 727 — 53 44 O+9
NY Siena 22-Oct 24-Oct 750 3.6 59 35 O+24
NY Marist 18-Oct 21-Oct 565 4.1 61 35 O+26
NC Gravis Marketing 24-Oct 24-Oct 1723 2.4 45 53 R+8
NC PPP 23-Oct 25-Oct 880 3.3 48 48 tie
NC Grove Insight 23-Oct 24-Oct 500 4.4 47 44 O+3
NC Civitas 20-Oct 21-Oct 600 4.0 47 48 R+1
OH CNN/OR 23-Oct 25-Oct 741 3.5 50 46 O+4
OH Purple Strategies 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 46 44 O+2
OH ARG 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 49 47 O+2
OK SoonerPoll 18-Oct 24-Oct 305 5.6 32.8 58.7 R+25.9
PA Rasmussen 24-Oct 24-Oct 500 4.5 51 46 O+5
VA Purple Strategies 23-Oct 25-Oct 600 4.0 47 47 tie
VA Rasmussen 24-Oct 24-Oct 750 4.0 48 50 R+2
VA FOX News 23-Oct 24-Oct 1126 3.0 45 47 R+2
WI Rasmussen 25-Oct 25-Oct 500 4.5 49 49 tie
WI Grove Insight 24-Oct 25-Oct 500 4.4 48 43 O+5
WI PPP 23-Oct 24-Oct 827 3.4 49 47 O+2

You may recall from early October, a Rocky Mountain poll in Arizona that had Obama leading by +2%. We finally get a new poll from the state. And it has Romney leading Obama by +8%. The new poll seems consistent with most earlier polls, suggesting the Rocky Mountain poll was an outlier. Even so, the Rocky Mountain poll was notable because they provided both English and Spanish language live interviews, thereby likely capturing a more representative sample of Latino voters. Why is that important? University of Washington Political Science Professor Matt Barreto explains.

Five Colorado polls were released, none of which showed Romney leading. There was one tie, and Obama had smallish margins in the rest. Of the seven current polls Romney leads in one. Even so, the very small leads for Obama only put him at a 79% probability of winning right now.

Four new Florida polls go 3:1 in favor of Romney. In the past 10 days, there have been 11 polls taken, and Obama only leads in three (plus there is one tie). Romney takes away an 86% probability of winning at this point in the race.

In Iowa, two new polls show Obama leading by small (+4%, +2%) margins. Romney only leads by +1% in one of the six current polls. Obama is at a 92% probability for taking the state now.

A new Minnesota poll has Obama leading Romney by +8%. With only two current polls Obama is at a 95% probability of winning now.

The three new Nevada polls favor Obama by small margins, and by 50% in each case. Obama leads in all seven current polls, and is at a 96% probability.

Just a week ago, New Hampshire was looking to be in Romney’s column. Today’s poll gives Obama a +3% and three of the six current polls, and Obama’s margins are greater than Romneys. Together, the evidence suggests Obama would take the state now with a probability of 77%.

New Mexico remains rock solid for Obama with this new +9%.

Four new North Carolina polls tell a mixed story. Romney has a +8% in one and a +1% in another, Obama leads one by +3% and one is tied. In aggregate, however, it is pretty clear that Romney is ahead overall. He leads in three of the six current polls, with stronger leads. Taken together, Romney is at a 94% probability of taking the state now.

Three more Ohio polls go to Obama, but by small margins. We now have 14 current polls, and Obama leads Romney eleven to one with two ties. The net result is that Obama is at a 97% probability of taking this most important of swing states.

Another Pennsylvania poll goes to Obama by a single-digit +5%. But Obama is at 51% in this poll. The four current polls all go to Obama by similar small margins.

Virginia keeps us guessing with Obama and Romney splitting a new poll at 47% each. Here is how close the state is. Each candidate leads in three polls of the seven current polls, and there is a tie. There are 4,970 total “votes” therein, of which Romney gets just 10 more than Obama. That’s close!

Two of the three new polls in Wisconsin goes to Obama, and the third is a tie. Romney does not lead any of the six current polls, so Obama earns a 92% probability of winning the state.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 93,432 times and Romney wins 6,568 times (including the 487 ties). We get a split decision. Obama received (on average) 294 (-5) to Romney’s 244 (+5) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 93.4% (+0.4%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 6.6% (-0.4%)probability of winning.

Here is the long term trend in this race, found from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 26 Oct 2011 to 26 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ):

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Worse than Bush–Cheney?!?

by Darryl — Friday, 10/26/12, 12:19 am

Over at The Ave a guest editorial appears from Robert called, “The Worst Case Scenario” (my emphasis):

Assuming Romney & Ryan (these lethal bozo’s should not have even been close) win their attitude of extreme conservative austerity, the sworn oath of the Tea party politicians to never raise taxes on the wealthy and the republican obsession to regain power by sabotaging the black man’s presidency at any cost will result in America’s very own holocaust. The next four years will include a collapse of the American economy, drastically increased unemployment, destroy the social safety net, gut the public schools system, close the US Post Office, deprive millions of healthcare, expand the war on collective bargaining and working people, on women, on the underemployed, on minorities, end fair elections, end affordable higher education, reinforce a corporate dominated supreme court, keep money in politics, start unnecessary wars resulting in millions of casualties, destabilize world peace, put global warming on steroids which could be the beginning of the end of the human species. The Tea party republicans then would give the trillions they skin for social services to the already obscenely rich and a bloated military.

Robert argues his case from these premises.

To me, the essay is a little over the top, and a little on the pessimistic side. But it raises a good question: “What is the worst case scenario for a Romney–Ryan presidency?”

I remember when Shrub more-or-less won in 2000. I imagined that we were in for a depressing four years in which not much got accomplished except the decimation of the responsible fiscal budgetary policy of the Clinton administration.

And then came 9/11.

Rather than impeaching the President for ignoring a memo titled, “Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US”, America reacted by turning over and playing dead.

The nine years that followed were a worst case scenario, from throwing fiscal responsibility totally out the window, starting two wars, including one that led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, allowing N. Korea to develop and test a nuclear weapon, providing for unprecedented powers of spying on the American people, creation of the seemingly biblically inspired Department of Homeland Security and the fucking TSA (together a huge expansion of the federal government), sanctioned torture in our name, indefinite detention, vilification of Islam, and the Roberts/Alito court.

And the whole clusterfuck was capped by the collapse and near-ruin of the U.S. economy.

Man…that was some shitty scenario! But not really on the level of a holocaust—except, maybe, what happened in Iran.

Would a Romney–Ryan administration be worse than that? I cannot imagine it so…

But, then again, I could not foresee the profound wounds that the Bush–Cheney administration would end up inflicting on my country.

So what do you think? Am I not pessimistic enough? Is Robert too pessimistic? Seriously, what is the likely and the worst case scenarios from a Romney–Ryan administration?

Just how bad could it get?

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Poll Analysis: Obama gains, race has stabilized

by Darryl — Thursday, 10/25/12, 11:59 am


Obama Romney
93.0% probability of winning 7.0% probability of winning
Mean of 299 electoral votes Mean of 239 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Note: This analysis was completed this morning, but publication was delayed for the two previous posts. New polls are probably out by now…they will be included in my next analysis.]

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by 292 to 246 electoral votes. The Monte Carlo analysis give Obama a 93.4% and Romney a 6.6% probability of winning an election held now.

There was a boatload of new polls released in the past couple of days. But before discussing them, I should point out, that I am now using a ten-day “current poll” window. This means the analysis works with polls taken within the past ten days whenever possible. Next Tuesday, if enough polls are being released, I’ll shrink the window down to one week. After some poll talk, I’ll discuss the effect on the results of shrinking the window.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AR AR Poll 09-Oct 14-Oct 642 4.0 31 58 R+27
CT Rasmussen 21-Oct 21-Oct 500 4.5 52 45 O+7
CT Quinnipiac 19-Oct 22-Oct 1412 2.6 55 41 O+14
CT SurveyUSA 19-Oct 21-Oct 575 4.2 53.4 39.5 O+13.9
CT Mason-Dixon 15-Oct 17-Oct 626 4.0 49 42 O+7
FL Pharos 19-Oct 21-Oct 759 3.6 46.8 46.6 O+0.2
FL Mellman Group 18-Oct 21-Oct 800 3.4 47 47 tie
IN Pharos 19-Oct 21-Oct 754 3.6 38.3 51.5 R+13.2
MA WBUR 21-Oct 22-Oct 516 4.4 56 36 O+20
MI Baydoun 22-Oct 23-Oct 1122 2.9 46.9 46.6 O+0.3
MN Rasmussen 21-Oct 21-Oct 500 4.5 51 46 O+5
MT Pharos 19-Oct 21-Oct 828 3.4 41.3 47.5 R+6.2
NE Pharos 19-Oct 21-Oct 783 3.5 31.4 42.9 R+11.5
NV PPP 22-Oct 24-Oct 636 3.9 51 47 O+4
NV Rasmussen 23-Oct 23-Oct 500 4.5 50 48 O+2
NV ARG 19-Oct 22-Oct 600 4.0 49 47 O+2
NH Rasmussen 23-Oct 23-Oct 500 4.5 48 50 R+2
NH ARG 19-Oct 22-Oct 600 4.0 47 49 R+2
NH Lake 18-Oct 22-Oct 400 4.9 48 45 O+3
NY Marist 18-Oct 21-Oct 565 4.1 61 35 O+26
ND Pharos 19-Oct 21-Oct 807 3.4 39.3 49.4 R+10.1
ND Rasmussen 17-Oct 18-Oct 600 4.0 40 54 R+14
ND Essman 12-Oct 15-Oct 500 4.4 32.4 56.8 R+24.4
OH Rasmussen 23-Oct 23-Oct 750 4.0 48 48 tie
OH Time 22-Oct 23-Oct 742 3.0 49.3 43.7 O+5.7
OH Lake 20-Oct 23-Oct 600 — 46 44 O+2
OH SUSA 20-Oct 22-Oct 609 4.1 47.2 44.2 O+3.0
OH Pharos 19-Oct 21-Oct 810 3.4 49.9 45.2 O+4.7
PA Pharos 19-Oct 21-Oct 760 3.6 49.5 45.5 O+4.0
VA PPP 23-Oct 24-Oct 722 3.6 51 46 O+5
VA Mellman Group 18-Oct 21-Oct 800 3.5 46 45 O+1
WA Strategies 360 17-Oct 20-Oct 500 4.4 52 39 O+13
WI Mason-Dixon 15-Oct 17-Oct 625 4.0 48 46 O+2

Two new Florida polls both have the candidates tied. Still, Romney takes four of the seven current polls, giving Romney a thin +1.4% lead in “votes” and a 77% probability of winning an election held now.

Indiana polls are notable because they are relatively rare. This new poll confirms that Romney has a good lock on the state.

Michigan turns in a squeaker…essentially a tie, with Obama up by +0.3%. With one other current poll giving Obama a +6%, Obama holds a 79% probability of winning the state.

The new poll in Minnesota is the only current poll for the state. With Obama up by a thin +5%, his probability of winning the state is 79%.

We get a new Nebraska poll showing Romney up by +11.5%. Unfortunately, we don’t get the breakout of the Nebraska congressional districts. Mid-September was the last time we had a poll for NE-2, and that showed a 44%–44% split. Obama won NE-2 in 2008 by +1.2%, so in the event of close race, NE-2 could end up being kingmaker.

Three new Nevada polls all go to Obama by quite small margins (+4%, +2% and +2%). In total, we have six current polls and they all favor Obama, giving him a 96% probability of winning now. The last three months of polling in the state tell a story of a small, but stable, lead:

ObamaRomney25Sep12-25Oct12Nevada

Three new New Hampshire polls go 2:1 for Romney. In fact, the candidates split the six current polls. Obama comes out +1.4% ahead in the “votes”, largely on the strength of one University of New Hampshire poll.

Three North Dakota polls in one week? Go figure! But, no doubts, either. Romney is double-digit solid there.

Five new polls come in for Ohio. Romney takes exactly zero of them, although the Rasmussen poll is a tie, and Obama’s leads are pretty small. The current polls support a small lead for Obama, and jointly give him a 96% probability of winning right now. The past month of polling in this race shows a race that has been stable with, on average, a small advantage for Obama:

ObamaRomney25Sep12-25Oct12Ohio

Pennsylvania supports Obama over Romney by +4.0%. The three current polls give Obama a +4% advantage that translates into a 90% probability of winning the state now.

Two new Virginia polls give Obama a +5% and +1% edge over Romney. With three of four current polls in Obama’s column, Virginia turns blue. Obama’s lead is tenuous, however, and he has only a 67% probability of winning the state now.

In the new Washington poll, Obama gets a solid double-digit lead.

Obama gets a narrow lead in the new Wisconsin poll. With all three current polls giving him a small lead, Obama gets a 90% probability of winning an election now in the state.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 93,023 times and Romney wins 6,977 times (including the 611 ties). Obama received (on average) 299 (+7) to Romney’s 239 (-7) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 93.0% (-0.4) probability of winning and Romney would have a 7.0% (+0.4) probability of winning.

The large batch of new polls, combined with the ten-day “current poll” window, has increased Obama’s expectation for electoral votes by +7, but slightly reduced the probability of winning. The reduced probability reflects the fact that the smaller window results in a smaller number of polls and, therefore, polled individuals. And a smaller sample of “voters” increases uncertainty in the outcome. Essentially the ten-day window throws out older evidence. That way, if the race is undergoing shorter changes in the weeks before the election, the analysis will more likely pick them up.

The time series graph (from elections simulated every 7 days using polls from 25 Oct 2011 to 25 Oct 2012 [FAQ]), it looks like Romney’s post-first-debate gains peaked a week or two ago. The race has, at least, stabilized, and Obama’s slight gain may be a sign of the trend reversing. It’s too early to claim that Obama has the momentum, however.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Poll Analysis: McKenna takes the lead

by Darryl — Thursday, 10/25/12, 1:09 am

A new Elway poll has Washington state AG Rob McKenna leading former WA-1 Congressman Jay Inslee, 47% to 45%. The poll comes on the heels of a Strategies 360 poll showing the race tied up. The Elway poll surveyed 451 likely voters (4.5 MOE) from 18 Oct to 21 Oct.

A Monte Carlo analysis employing a million simulated elections, based only on the responses to this poll, gives McKenna wins 617,196 times and Inslee wins 369,576 times. The analysis suggests that, if the election was held today, McKenna would win with a 62.5% probability and Inslee would win with a 37.5% probability. Here is the distribution of election outcomes:

ElwayOct

This new poll is one of five recent (October) polls trying to assess this race, and they largely overlap:

Start End Sample % %
Poll date date size MOE Inslee McKenna
Elway 18-Oct 21-Oct 451 4.5 45.0 47.0
Strategies 360 17-Oct 20-Oct 500 4.4 46.0 46.0
PPP 15-Oct 16-Oct 574 — 48.0 42.0
SurveyUSA 12-Oct 14-Oct 543 4.3 47.0 44.0
Washington Poll 01-Oct 16-Oct 644 3.9 47.1 46.3

If you believe the dynamics of this race have not changed much over the several weeks, then a pooled analysis of the five polls can provide additional evidence of the state of the race.

The pooled sample provides 2,712 “votes”, of which 2,487 are for Inslee or McKenna. Inslee receives 1,267 “votes” (46.7%), and McKenna receives 1,220 “votes” (45.0%).

The Monte Carlo analysis gives Inslee 745,625 wins and McKenna 249,491 wins. The analysis suggests that, for an election held now, Inslee would win with a 74.9% probability and McKenna would win with a 25.1% probability:
FIVEOCTPolls

It’s hard to say which of these two analyses better reflect the dynamics of the race. But, it would be naive to deny that this race has tightened up in the past few weeks.

The Elway poll has a pretty small sample, which means there is more sampling error; but, combined with the Strategies 360 poll, it is perfectly justifiable to suggest that McKenna is really in the lead now.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 10/23/12, 12:26 pm

We had a great turn-out at the special debate edition of Drinking Liberally last night—a lot of new faces. Tonight we’ll have our regularly-scheduled gathering. Please join us for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Our gatherings are informal. If you show up and don’t immediately recognize the pack of liberals, ask a bartender or server.





Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? You have options. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. On Wednesday, the Burien and Bellingham chapters meet. And on Thursday the Woodinville chapter meets.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including fourteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Poll Analysis: Inslee and McKenna tied up

by Darryl — Monday, 10/22/12, 9:30 pm

Strategies 360 has released a new poll that covers, among other things, the Washington state gubernatorial race between former Congressman Jay Inslee (D) and state AG Rob Mckenna (R). The poll of 500 likely voters (4.4% MOE) was taken from the 17th to the 20th of October.

The poll is tied up at 46% when leaners are included. (Without leaners, Inslee leads McKenna 43% to 40%, but my policy is to work with the numbers that include leaners.)

Obviously, at 50% each there is little point at running a Monte Carlo analysis. But, we now have four polls covering this race over the past several weeks:

Start End Sample % %
Poll date date size MOE Inslee McKenna
Strategies 360 17-Oct 20-Oct 500 4.4 46.0 46.0
PPP 15-Oct 16-Oct 574 — 48.0 42.0
SurveyUSA 12-Oct 14-Oct 543 4.3 47.0 44.0
Washington Poll 01-Oct 16-Oct 644 3.9 47.1 46.3

So, it would be worth analyzing all four of these polls together. The pooled polls gives a sample of 2,801 of which 2,558 go for one or the other candidates. Inslee gets 1,323 (47.2%) of the “votes” and McKenna gets 1,235 (44.1%).

The Monte Carlo analysis of 1,000,000 simulated elections using the pooled data gives Inslee wins 890,208 times and McKenna wins 107,592 times. If the election was held now, we would expect Inslee to win with a 89.2% probability and McKenna with a 10.8% probability. Here is the distribution of election outcomes:

FIVEOCTPolls

Clearly, what we have had all October is a very close race, but one in which Inslee has maintained a small edge. It looks to me like the race has tightened up a bit since September, as frequently happens in the final weeks of an election:

GenericCongress22Sep12-22Oct12Washington

The poll had a number of other interesting results for other races as well:

  • Obama 51%, Romney 35%
  • Initiative 1240 (Charter schools): 51% support, 34% oppose
  • Initiative 502 (marijuana): 54% support, 38% oppose
  • Referendum 74 (Uphold same-sex marriage law): 55% approve, 38% reject

The poll also asked people’s opinion on some topics. In looking for strategies to raise revenue to meet the Supreme Court’s ruling to better fund public education, 54% supported and 41% opposed an income tax on people making more that $200K. For capital gains tax on investment income, 47% supported the idea and 44% opposed. What people really hated was increases in state property tax, sales tax or B&O tax. Most people (59% support, 36% oppose) support an increase in state funding for higher education.

All in all, this survey makes Washington state look solid blue—except for that squeaker of a gubernatorial race.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Debate open thread

by Darryl — Monday, 10/22/12, 5:23 pm

The last in a series of presidential debates is on tonight, featuring President Barack Hussein Obama II (D) and former Massachusetts Governor Willard Mitt Romney (R).

This debate will focus on foreign policy. But since Willard has little foreign policy experience beyond a courtesy visit to London (plus Israel and Poland) so that he could totally avoid watch Ann’s dressage horse compete in the Olympics, be prepared for the candidates to twist everything back into domestic issues.

I’ll be at the Montlake Ale House liveblogging as I can. Please join me there, or have fun in the comment threads, if you prefer.

6:04: Romney wins!!!! (the coin toss.)

6:05: Mitt opens with a lot of babbling and proclaims, “We can’t kill out of this mess.” Uh-huh.

6:08: “Gov. Romney, you strategy has been all over the map.” Certainly is was based on his opening answer.

6:09: Mitt wants “Gender equality”. Does he really know what he is saying? But this second answer is so babbly it’s hard to know what he is saying.

6:12: Obama hits Romney HARD on his inconsistent positions on foreign policy.

6:13: Romney hits Obama back on the “after the election” comment to Putin.

6:15: After a short bicker-fest, Obama comes out with a pretty coherent positive agenda.

6:18: Romney doesn’t have a plan for Syria…he just regurgitates factoids about the situation. Then, when he gets down to “action” points, his plan is what the Obama administration is ACTUALLY DOING RIGHT NOW. Sheesh!

6:21: Obama complements Romney on supporting the Obama administration on Libya and then punches him in the nose on his “mission creep” statement.

6:23: Mitt Romney tells us what “we all hear intelligence sources saying”. Damn…I can’t say…left my national security briefing binder at home.

6:27: Mitt declares himself a peacenik

6:28: Both candidates work in domestic issues. Obama did a better job sneaking it in. Romney criticizes the sequestration cuts…as if that’s Obama’s doing!

6:30: Mitt gives a speech directed toward the Priests of the Military Industrial Complex.

6:31: Obama does it again—turning the debate into a list of his accomplishments.

6:32: Obama hits below the belt…”[Romney] praised George Bush for his economic stewardship and Dick Cheney for ….”

6:34: Romney said “teacher’s unions” and Obama looked down! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooo……!!!!!!

6:36: We are now on the topic on whether class size makes a difference. In Afghanistan?!?

6:37: Obama gets surly while Romney babbles on about “his” education successes in MA.

6:39: No, Governor, we cannot afford to repeal Obamacare.

6:40: Obama gets his do-over from Debate 1: “five trillion dollar tax cuts…military spending that the military isn’t asking for…”

6:41: I’m watching NBC. Why is Obama on the right and Romney on the left? This is a conspiracy!!!!

6:42: Romney, “I balanced the budget for the Olympics”. Yes…Governor, with a little help of your taxpayer friends.

6:43: Obama finally defends himself against Romney’s bullshit of blaming Obama for sequestration cuts.

6:44: Obama lands a left hook with the “horses and bayonettes” zinger. Perhaps the best zinger of all three debates!

6:48: Mitt’s flaggey-flag pin is bigger. Obviously, he loves America more.

6:49: Mitt Romney thinks Ahmadinejad has committed more war crimes and crimes against humanity than George W. Bush and Dick Fucking Cheney???? Very curious.

6:51: We have about 20 folks at the Ale House who are, apparently, here for the debate.

6:54: Note to Obama…watch out for Tagg Romney running toward you….

6:55: Obama contrasts his visit to Israel with Romney’s…it seems pretty effective!

6:59: Mitt lets us know he has “a relationship with the Prime Minister of Israel.” No doubt he cultivated that relationship the same way he cultivated a relationship with the Prime Minister of the U.K.

7:01: Obama goes after Romney hard on his flip flopping. I noticed, he always ends those bits with a positive message. Good debate coaching.

7:04: Mitt just told all the terrorists when he will pull out of Afghanistan. Why does he hate our soldiers?

7:08: Bob: “Obama bin Laden”

7:10: I’ve heard Mitt say lots of things about Pakistan, but I am still not sure where he stands and what he would do?

7:11: Mitt drones on about his support for Drones. But, but, but, I thought we couldn’t “kill our way out of this”

7:14: Trending on Twitter (US): #horsesandbayonets

7:18: Via Twitter:

Abby Huntsman ‏@HuntsmanAbby
I’ve never heard two candidates agree more during what is suppose to be a “debate.”

7:17: Mitt wants to label China a “currency manipulator.” That will bring them to their knees.

7:21: Obama pushes the “Romney has bad political instincts” meme: outsourcing, “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt”, etc.

7:23: Mitt: “I would do nothing to hurt Detroit.” Obama calls him out on that bullshit.

7:25: “Governor, you keep on trying to airbrush history.” Look up history here.

7:28: Romney keeps bringing up the same old bullshit about how much worse things are now then they were when Obama came into office. Two words: “Bikini Graph”

7:31: Mitt: “I want to see growing peace in this country.” Huh? This is the kind of thing that is said when politicians are on autopilot.

7:38: Promoted comment from Michael:

Moderate Mitt’s plans all seem to come down to being just like Obama, only white.

7:47: Debriefing: Michael nails it. Romney etch-a-sketched so far back to the center that he was, essentially, agreeing with Obama more than he was disagreeing. That ends up being a huge problem for him. After all, the power of incumbency is that given identical choices, the devil you know is better than the identical devil you don’t.

But, of course, the other problem is that by becoming The White Obama, he contradicts his past “non-Kenyan” self. You know, like most of the stuff he said in the G.O.P. primary. His strategy depends on potential moderate supporters not being disturbed by his total abdication of past positions. That may have worked 20 years ago, but in the age of The Twitter and a plethora of other social media…maybe not so much.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Poll Analysis: A small surge for Romney

by Darryl — Monday, 10/22/12, 3:33 pm


Obama Romney
93.4% probability of winning 6.6% probability of winning
Mean of 292 electoral votes Mean of 246 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

We’re at an interesting point in the presidential race. I’ve been running analyses a couple of times a day as new batches of polls are found and entered, and the race has bounced up and down with each batch of polls. (I had a pretty packed weekend, so didn’t have the opportunity to post any of these analyses since my previous analysis.)

For example, yesterday afternoon, Romney was down to about 3% probability of winning. By yesterday late evening, with a few more polls, Romney had surged to something around 17%.

Today’s batch of polls have been mixed, but slightly more favorable to Obama.

Here they are:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA Reason-Rupe 11-Oct 15-Oct 508 5.1 53 38 O+15
CO Rasmussen 21-Oct 21-Oct 500 4.5 46 50 R+4
DC PPP 12-Oct 14-Oct 1222 2.8 88 8 O+80
FL PPP 18-Oct 18-Oct 800 4.0 47 48 R+1
FL Rasmussen 18-Oct 18-Oct 750 4.0 46 51 R+5
FL SurveyUSA 17-Oct 18-Oct 600 4.1 47.5 45.5 O+2.0
FL FOX News 17-Oct 18-Oct 1130 3.0 45 48 R+3
FL CNN/OR 17-Oct 18-Oct 681 4.0 48 49 R+1
IA Rasmussen 21-Oct 21-Oct 500 4.5 48 48 tie
IA PPP 18-Oct 19-Oct 660 3.8 49 48 O+1
IA PPP 17-Oct 19-Oct 869 3.3 48 49 R+1
MD WA Post 11-Oct 15-Oct 843 4.0 60 36 O+24
MO PPP 19-Oct 21-Oct 582 4.1 46 52 R+6
MO Rasmussen 17-Oct 17-Oct 500 4.5 43 54 R+11
NV Mellman Group 15-Oct 17-Oct 600 4.0 51 43 O+8
NH U NH 17-Oct 21-Oct 773 3.5 51 42 O+9
NH PPP 17-Oct 19-Oct 1036 3.0 48 49 R+1
NJ SurveyUSA 17-Oct 18-Oct 577 4.2 56.3 41.5 O+14.9
NJ Stockton 12-Oct 18-Oct 811 3.5 53 38 O+15
NC Grove Insight 17-Oct 18-Oct 500 4.4 47 44 O+3
OH Suffolk 18-Oct 21-Oct 600 4.0 46.5 46.7 R+0.2
OH PPP 18-Oct 20-Oct 532 4.3 49 48 O+1
OH Quinnipiac 17-Oct 20-Oct 1548 3.0 50 45 O+5
OH Gravis Marketing 18-Oct 19-Oct 1943 2.2 47 47 tie
OH FOX News 17-Oct 18-Oct 1131 3.0 46 43 O+3
OR SurveyUSA 16-Oct 18-Oct 579 4.2 48.9 42.3 O+6.6
PA Gravis Marketing 21-Oct 21-Oct 887 3.3 48 45 O+3
PA Muhlenberg 17-Oct 21-Oct 444 5.0 50 45 O+5
UT U UT 08-Oct 13-Oct 206 7.6 21 74 R+53
VA PPP 18-Oct 19-Oct 500 4.4 49 47 O+2
VA Rasmussen 18-Oct 18-Oct 750 4.0 47 50 R+3
WI Rasmussen 18-Oct 18-Oct 500 4.5 50 48 O+2

Romney leads in the new Colorado poll. The candidates split 3 and 3, the six current polls. Overall, the edge goes to Obama who earned +1% more “votes”, and would be expected to win now with a 71% probability. Here is the last three weeks of polls in a picture:

ObamaRomney22Sep12-22Oct12Colorado

In D.C. Obama up by +80% over Romney. That’s not the probability of winning D.C.—that’s the point spread!

The five new Florida polls go 4:1 for Romney. He now leads in 9 of 11 current polls, usually by small, single-digit, margins.

Iowa must be close. We have one tie, a +1% for Romney and a +1% for Obama. Overall, with six current polls that show two ties, one lead for Romney, and three leads for Obama. Together, the polls support Obama winning with a 90% probability right now. Here is the picture:

ObamaRomney22Sep12-22Oct12Iowa

Two new Missouri polls, two new leads for Romney.

Obama takes the new Nevada poll. He now leads in five of six current polls, and the last one is a tie. Obama’s lead is expected to hold (now, anyway) with a 96% probability.

New Hampshire has been bouncing around for the past week. A new poll give Obama a +9% and another new poll gives Romney a +1%. Of the six current polls, Obama leads in two, Romney in three (but one is very close), and there is one tie. Overall, Obama takes +1% more of the “votes” and has about a 67% probability of winning.

We only get one new North Carolina poll, and it has Obama up by +3%. But Romney leads in four of the five current polls and, overall, has better prospects for winning the state—an 83% probability at this point.

Oh, Ohio, how you tease the Obama supporters and taunt the Romney supporters! There are five new polls and Romney leads in one of these by a +0.2% edge. The raw data are 280 “votes” for Romney and 279 “votes” for Obama. One other poll is a tie, and Obama takes the rest. But from a total of 12 current polls, Obama leads in eight of them. From a total of 11,289 surveyed individuals, Obama takes 51.1% and Romney takes 48.9%. Obama would be expected to win an election now in the state with a 95% probability.

It has been a month since the last Oregon poll, and the new one finds Obama with a modest +6.6% lead over Romney.

Two new Pennsylvania polls both have Obama leading, albeit narrowly. In fact, Obama has single digit leads in seven of eight current polls, with Romney up in the eighth.

Obama takes one of the two new Virginia polls. It has been a long time since that has happened. But Romney easily leads in four of the six current polls, and one of the six was a tie. Overall, Romney gets a 69% probability of taking the state in an election right now. This is clear from the past three weeks:

ObamaRomney22Sep12-22Oct12Virginia

The new Wisconsin poll goes to Obama, but by a tight +2%. Obama takes all five current polls, but all by small margins. Here is the big picture:

ObamaRomney22Sep12-22Oct12Wisconsin

From 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 93,430 times and Romney wins 6,570 times (including the 578 ties). Obama receives (on average) 292 (-8) to Romney’s 246 (+8) electoral votes. Obama has a 93.4% (-3.3%) probability of winning and Romney has a 6.6% (+3.3%) probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 22-Oct-2011 to 22-Oct-2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Special debate edition of Drinking Liberally on Monday

by Darryl — Sunday, 10/21/12, 1:51 pm

On Monday there will be a third and final presidential debate. And that sounds like a good excuse to get together for a pint and an opportunity to watch and discuss the debate with a veritable binder-full of fellow liberals. So please join us for another Debate Edition of Seattle’s Drinking Liberally at the Montlake Ale House on Monday evening.

Important Note: We will have sound and video for the debate. But the bar and restaurant has other customers, so the sound may not be as loud as you want, especially with the background of a busy tavern and peripheral conversations. If you are intent on hearing every word, I recommend you bring an FM radio and headsets or earbuds. Additionally, the Ale House has free WiFi for streaming audio. Ask your server for the password.

We will meet at our usual place, the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E.

The Montlake Ale House opens at 5:00pm, and the presidential debate begins at 6:00pm.

I’ll be liveblogging the debate here.

We’ll still have or regular Tuesday evening gathering of liberals this week, as well. I hope you can make it to one or both events.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Don’t redefine “redefine”

by Darryl — Saturday, 10/20/12, 4:02 pm

Dear Person who left this in my yard:

r74x

It’s gone now…got in the way while I was raking.

But before you put up a new one, please have the courtesy to fill out the application in the box by the door. Please print legibly, and pay particular attention the the section labeled, “Next of Kin.”

Love and Kisses,
—Darryl

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 10/20/12, 12:06 am

Jon does Barack.

Mark Fiore: microtargetting undecideds.

Sam Seder with a new edition of Random Rush.

The Candidates Have Dinner Together:

  • Obama and Romney joke at Al Smith dinner (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • Young TurksAnalyzing Barack’s jokes at the Al Smith charity dinner.
  • Young TurksAnalyzing Mitt’s jokes at the Al Smith charity dinner.
  • Maddow: Romney camp embarks on misinformation campaign to hide extremist policy.

Sam Seder: Breaking down Benghazi; the G.O.P.’s scandalquest.

White House: West Wing Week.

Newsy: Another appeal’s court finds DOMA unconstitutional.

Sam Seder: FAUX and Fiends lose their minds over BASIC MATH.

Obama: Commit to vote.

Pap: The continuing G.O.P. war on voting.

Willard (and friends):

  • Stephen switches positions (via DailyKos).
  • Mitt Romney’s problems with women.
  • Young Turks: Romney to CEO’s—‘Help’ employees vote ‘right’ way
  • Thom: Romney encourages employers to tell employees how to vote
  • Stephen reveals Mitt’s plans for Day One
  • Romney recorded asking employers to sway worker’s votes.
  • Obama explains Romnesia (via Crooks and Liars):
  • Bashir: Diagnosing Romnesia (via The Political Carnival).
  • Jennifer Granholm: How Romnesia took the nation by storm.
  • Sam Seder: Paul Ryan’s pathetic soup kitchen photo op.
  • Kimmel: Mitt’s new women’s ad
  • Mitt’s math-challenged tax plan.
  • Maddow: Bush foreign policy infects Romney campaign
  • ONN: Mitt’s leaked Google search history!
  • SlateTV: Romney boys can’t contain their Obama debate anger
  • Tagg Romney jokes about taking a swing at the President.
  • Ed: Tagg shows disrespect.
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: Your dad is a liar…so take a swing at me (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Sam Seder: Tagg wishes he could punch the President
  • Sharpton: Tagg Romney’s ‘Take a swing at Obama’ comment is a symptom of GOP disrespect & racism
  • Zina Saunders: Pick-a-Prez:
  • Mitt Romney’s condescending views toward women

Maddow: Maricopa County Elections puts wrong election date on form—in Spanish only.

Sam Seder: Federal Appeals Court rules DOMA unconstitutional.

Jennifer Granholm: Debunking conservative myths—what your Republican uncle needs to know.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News or CNN less biased on Romney politicizing death of ex-SEAL.

SlateTV: The Boss is back!

Maddow: Party differences apparent in donor list.

Debate, Town Hall Style:

  • Stephen: On Megyn Kelly’s town hall debate analysis
  • Who won?
  • Key & Peele: Luther on Obama’s town hall debate win.
  • Thom: Myth Master Mitt Romney.
  • Sam Seder: Obama smacks Romney’s Libya accusations as offensive
  • Ann Telnaes: Biden helps Obama prepare for debate 2.
  • Romney’s way: He talks…you listen.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt Romney’s Libya FACE PLANT!
  • Bashir: Right-wing “act of error” on Libya
  • Right wing debate delusions: An ‘act of terror’ is NOT really a ‘terror attack’?!?
  • Ed: Right-wingers still blame Candy Crowley for Romney’s poor performance.
  • Newsy: Romney’s binders full of women
  • Conan: Obama impresses the judges.
  • Jon on binders full of women.
  • Sam Seder: Did Romney make his case for affirmative action with his binders?
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Romney’s Binders
  • Ann Telnaes: Another Romney binder.
  • Young Turks: Binders full of women—great story because MITT LIED
  • SlateTV: The “Binders full of women” meme
  • Jonathan Mann: Binders full of Women.

Young Turks: “Lowlife Scumbag”…Congressional debate gets heated.

John Fugelsang: The week in amnesia—a tale of two 9/11s:

Mitchell and Maddow: Obama touts advocacy for women.

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Jennifer Granholm: Issa’s sensitive document dump jeoporadizes security.

Sam Seder: Rep. Joe Walsh opens up new front on the War on Women™.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Poll Analysis: Obama surges to 300

by Darryl — Thursday, 10/18/12, 7:21 pm


Obama Romney
96.7% probability of winning 3.3% probability of winning
Mean of 300 electoral votes Mean of 238 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Our previous analysis had seen President Barack Obama slip a little but more, although he still led Gov. Mitt Romney by a mean of 288 to 250 electoral votes. The analysis further concluded that Obama would only have an 86.5% probability of winning an election now; Romney was at a 13.5% probability of winning.

Some new polls have arrived.

Some comments on polls: First, there were a boatload of polls released by YouGov on Tuesday. If you are an Obama fan, they look pretty encouraging. Alas, I will not be including them in my analysis, as they are on-line polls. For the same reason, I will not include this Zogby poll in Florida showing Obama up +3%.

Second, there is a new New Jersey poll from Neighborhood Research on behalf of Americans for Prosperity released yesterday. It shows Obama with a +7% lead in New Jersey.

I was very tempted to totally ignore a poll from a David Koch group formed out of the Tea Party movement. But the methods section points out that:

This poll was commissioned as a public service to provide citizens with information related to public policy.

Call me a sucker, call me a fool, but until someone can show me that this was a selectively released or intentionally biased poll, I’ll follow my rules and include it.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO PPP 16-Oct 18-Oct 1000 3.1 50 47 O+3
CO Grove Insight 15-Oct 16-Oct 500 4.4 47 44 O+3
CO WeAskAmerica 15-Oct 15-Oct 1206 2.9 47.0 48.1 R+1.1
CT PPP 15-Oct 16-Oct 1015 3.1 53 44 O+9
CT U CT 11-Oct 16-Oct 574 4.0 51 37 O+14
CT Siena 04-Oct 14-Oct 552 4.2 53 38 O+15
IN Rasmussen 10-Oct 11-Oct 600 4.0 41 54 R+13
IA Marist 15-Oct 17-Oct 1137 2.9 51 43 O+8
IA WeAskAmerica 15-Oct 15-Oct 1499 2.6 48.7 45.9 O+2.8
MA PPP 15-Oct 16-Oct 709 3.7 57 39 O+18
MA Rasmussen 10-Oct 10-Oct 500 4.5 57 42 O+15
MI EPIC/MRA 17-Oct 17-Oct 800 3.5 52 46 O+6
MI Denno Research 11-Oct 11-Oct 500 4.5 44.2 40.5 O+3.7
MN SurveyUSA 12-Oct 14-Oct 550 4.3 50 40 O+10
MT PPP 15-Oct 16-Oct 806 3.5 43 53 R+10
MT Rasmussen 14-Oct 14-Oct 500 4.5 45 53 R+8
NV Grove Insight 15-Oct 16-Oct 500 4.4 50 43 O+7
NV Rasmussen 15-Oct 15-Oct 500 4.5 50 47 O+3
NV SurveyUSA 11-Oct 15-Oct 806 3.5 48 45 O+3
NH Rasmussen 15-Oct 15-Oct 500 4.5 50 49 O+1
NH Suffolk 12-Oct 14-Oct 500 4.4 46.8 47.2 R+0.4
NJ Neighborhood Research 10-Oct 14-Oct 783 3.5 48.4 41.4 O+7.0
NJ Quinnipiac 10-Oct 14-Oct 1319 2.7 51 43 O+8
NC Rasmussen 17-Oct 17-Oct 500 4.5 46 52 R+6
OH Rasmussen 17-Oct 17-Oct 750 4.0 49 48 O+1
OH SurveyUSA 12-Oct 15-Oct 613 4.0 45.4 42.4 O+2.9
PA Quinnipiac 12-Oct 14-Oct 1519 2.5 50 46 O+4
PA Susquehanna 11-Oct 13-Oct 1376 — 45 49 R+4
WA PPP 15-Oct 16-Oct 574 — 50 45 O+5
WA Rasmussen 14-Oct 14-Oct 500 4.5 55 42 O+13
WA SurveyUSA 12-Oct 14-Oct 543 4.3 54 40 O+14
WA Washington Poll 01-Oct 16-Oct 644 3.9 51.9 42.9 O+9.0
WI Marist 15-Oct 17-Oct 1013 3.1 51 45 O+6
WI Marquette 11-Oct 14-Oct 870 3.4 48.5 48.1 O+0.5

Just a couple of weeks ago, Romney seemed on the road to building a solid lead in Colorado. Today, Obama has a +3% in two new polls, and Romney gets a +1.1% lead in another. But with nine current polls (and 5 of them in Obama’s favor), Obama ends up winning 71% of the elections in the state:

ObamaRomney18Sep12-18Oct12Colorado

Two new polls in Iowa go to Obama, on by a remarkable +8% and the other one by an unremarkable +2.8%. Romney leads in none of the four current polls and the analysis suggests Obama would take the state with a 96% probability.

We also get two new Michigan polls. One has Obama up by a middling +6% and the other by an unimpressive +3.7%. Still, Obama takes all seven current polls, and Romney has not led in the past 20 polls…dating back to August. Obama is at a 99% probability of taking the state in an election now.

Two new Montana polls verify that Romney really does have a high single-digit lead. Romney is at 100% in the state.

Three Nevada polls all go to Obama by mid-single digits. Aside from one tie, Obama has led in the seven current polls. The polling trend seems to show Obama’s lead growing again and almost reaching his mid-September high:

ObamaRomney18Sep12-18Oct12Nevada

New Hampshire flipped from Obama to Romney after the first debate. Now we may be seeing it just starting to flop back. Obama takes one of two new polls, but still lags Romney in our current polls. Based on these polls, Romney would win with a 64% probability an election held now.

Romney seem to be hanging on to his lead in North Carolina with help of this new +6%. Romney takes all five of the current polls, and would be almost certain to win the state right now:

ObamaRomney18Sep12-18Oct12North Carolina

Two new polls in Ohio both go to Obama, but by pretty small margins (+1% and +2.9%). Even so, Obama has eight of twelve current polls and his series of small leads provide evidence he would win the state in an election now with an 87% probability:

ObamaRomney18Sep12-18Oct12Ohio

The biggest surprise of this batch of polls is that Mitt Romney finally takes the lead in one Pennsylvania poll. But, Obama leads by an equal amount in the other Pennsylvania poll, and one that is slightly larger (and newer). Overall, Obama takes seven of eight current polls, but the new one knocks Obama down to only a 92% probability of winning the state now.

Four new Washington polls give Obama leads from +5% to +14%. Combining the four current polls suggest Obama would win Washington with a probability of 100% by about +10%.

Two new Wisconsin polls both go to Obama, although one by a tiny margin. Still, with Obama up in all six current polls, it earns him a 95% probability of taking the state.

Now, 100,000 simulated elections later, Obama wins 96,710 times and Romney wins 3,290 times (and Romney gets the 414 ties out of this, too). Obama receives (on average) 300 (+12) to Romney’s 238 (-12) electoral votes. The Monte Carlo analysis suggests that, if the election was today, Obama would have a 96.7% (+10.2%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 3.3% (-10.2%) probability of winning.

You could say that the past three days have not been good polling days for Romney. It is always dangerous to call a trend after a single analysis, but it look like the previous analysis marked Romney’s high water mark, about the same he achieved after the Republican convention.

This can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 18 Oct 2011 to 18 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding 14 days (FAQ). See the little upward blip?

ObamaRomney18Oct11-18Oct12ex

The same upward blip can be seen in the Intrade chart of median prices that I captured this morning:

Intrade18OCT

[Read more…]

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print
  • « Previous Page
  • 1
  • …
  • 98
  • 99
  • 100
  • 101
  • 102
  • …
  • 185
  • Next Page »

Recent HA Brilliance…

  • Wednesday Open Thread Wednesday, 5/7/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 5/6/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 5/5/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 5/2/25
  • Friday Open Thread Friday, 5/2/25
  • Today’s Open Thread (Or Yesterday’s, or Last Year’s, depending On When You’re Reading This… You Know How Time Works) Wednesday, 4/30/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 4/29/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 4/28/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 4/28/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Saturday, 4/26/25

Tweets from @GoldyHA

I no longer use Twitter because, you know, Elon is a fascist. But I do post occasionally to BlueSky @goldyha.bsky.social

From the Cesspool…

  • Roger Rabbit on Wednesday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Wednesday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Wednesday Open Thread
  • Elijah Dominic McDotcom on Wednesday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Wednesday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Wednesday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Wednesday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Wednesday Open Thread
  • EvergreenRailfan on Wednesday Open Thread
  • lmao on Wednesday Open Thread

Please Donate

Currency:

Amount:

Archives

Can’t Bring Yourself to Type the Word “Ass”?

Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!

Search HA

Follow Goldy

[iire_social_icons]

HA Commenting Policy

It may be hard to believe from the vile nature of the threads, but yes, we have a commenting policy. Comments containing libel, copyright violations, spam, blatant sock puppetry, and deliberate off-topic trolling are all strictly prohibited, and may be deleted on an entirely arbitrary, sporadic, and selective basis. And repeat offenders may be banned! This is my blog. Life isn’t fair.

© 2004–2025, All rights reserved worldwide. Except for the comment threads. Because fuck those guys. So there.