Goldy

There’s been some gloating from the other side recently about the latest SurveyUSA poll that shows incumbent Dave Reichert leading challenger Darcy Burner by a 51% to 45% margin. Yet these results are at odds with the Majority Watch poll conducted around the same time that shows Burner leading Reichert 49% to 47%.

Of course, both polls are within the margin of error so technically, it’s possible both could be right. But I’m leaning towards the Majority Watch figures, and not just because I want to believe them.

The key number that leaps out at me from the SurveyUSA crosstabs is the stunning fact that Burner holds a comfortable 8 point lead with the one quarter of respondents who have already voted. And this number is not an anomaly. Reliable sources now tell me that both candidates’ internal polls show Burner leading with early voters, though I have no idea by how much.

As one longtime observer of Eastside elections recently explained: “Show me a Democrat leading in early absentees, and I’ll show you a winner.” And he’s not the only one to view early ballots as a meaningful statistic. Despite a plethora of polls showing Republican John Kyl with a steady lead over Democrat Jim Pederson, the DSCC just bought gobs of airtime in Arizona after internal polling showed Pederson leading Kyl by 4% with early voters in that Senate race.

That said, there are other numbers which I find suspect. SurveyUSA shows Reichert leading with both women and independents, results at odds with both the Majority Watch survey, and… well… my intuition. I am particularly struck by Reichert’s purported 10 point lead with independents, a result that defies national trends showing independents breaking towards Democratic candidates by wide margins. Usually, independents tend to split fairly evenly between the two parties, but as Stuart Rothenberg points out today, this isn’t your usual election.

“There just aren’t any independents this year,” joked one Republican strategist I talked with recently. “There are Republicans, Democrats and soft Democrats.”

I dunno. Perhaps 8th CD independents really are different from their national counterparts. Perhaps Reichert’s reputation as “the Sheriff” — deserved or not — really does make him immune to the national Democratic wave. But… I don’t think so.

If it wasn’t already obvious, this is why our good friend Stefan and many of his fellow Republicans so bitterly oppose King County’s proposed move to all vote-by-mail balloting:

Republican candidate Mike McGavick thinks his chances of unseating Cantwell are enhanced by the fact that Democratic-leaning King, the state’s most populous county, hasn’t yet switched to all-mail ballots. The Cantwell camp agrees that McGavick has a point but says it won’t help him nearly enough.

Voter turnout is generally higher in the 34 counties that now vote solely by mail than in the five counties — King, Pierce, Island, Kittitas and Klickitat — that still use polling places as well as mail ballots.

Secretary of State Sam Reed predicts a statewide voter turnout of 67 percent, a record for an even-year, non-presidential election. But for King County, election officials forecast a turnout of only 59.5 percent, with two-thirds of those voting by mail. Reed expects 88 percent of the votes statewide to be absentees.

“Most of those counties (that vote by mail) are Republican-leaning areas,” Dan Brady, McGavick’s campaign manager, said Wednesday. “To us, it means thousands of votes for Mike because it’s easier for people to vote when (the ballot) is sitting in front of them at home than it is to go to their polling place.”

If as many counties voted by mail in 2004 as are voting by mail this year, “Dino Rossi would probably be governor,” Brady said.

It is about nothing more than naked partisan advantage. Their goal all along has been to delay the implementation of vote-by-mail in King County until at least after the 2008 election, so as to give an advantage to Dino Rossi.

The Washington State Republican Party, having been seized by corporatist and right-wing fundamentalist factions, simply cannot win statewide elections on the issues. That’s why their candidates run these cynical, wishy-washy, issueless, faux-moderate campaigns. And that is why they focus so intently on voter suppression and intimidation.

I mean, I don’t blame them for wanting to suppress voter turnout in their opponent’s strongholds. I blame them for actually acting on their want.

Notice something interesting about the race between Democrat Peter Goldmark and Republican Cathy McMorris in Washington’s 5th Congressional District? Go ahead, look closely. Figure it out?

Goldmark is doing 3 points better in the rural parts of the district than he is in urban Spokane. Sure hope the Dems are pulling out all the stops in their GOTV efforts in traditionally Democratic urban areas. If Goldmark can win Spokane, he can win the district.

Hell, Israel started a war over a kidnapped soldier, but the minute we feel pressure we just pull up our checkpoints and abandon one of our soldiers in the hands of the Shiite militia. Republicans talk about how we need to win the war in Iraq, but the truth is, we’ve already lost it. It’s time to bring the troops home.

FYI, that’s House Majority Leader John Boehner defending the Rumsfeld and blaming the deteriorating situation in Iraq on the generals on the ground.

How disastrously ill-conceived is I-933, the “pay or waive” initiative that seeks to fatten developers by gutting Washington’s land use regulations? Well for example, it could end up costing Spokane County its largest employer:

A stream of military and aviation officials lined up last week to urge Spokane County to adopt regulations that would prevent additional residential development around Fairchild Air Force Base and Spokane International Airport.

Residential development can encroach upon airfields, both in noise complaints from homeowners and with safety issues, when people are living near the area where plane crashes are most likely to occur. Proponents of Fairchild cite “encroachment” as the No. 1 reason why air force bases nationwide get shut down during periodic federal evaluations.

But if I-933 passes, property owners surrounding Fairchild could file claims demanding the county either waive any regulations passed since 1996, or pay property owners for their lost value. This shows up I-933 for what it really is: legalized extortion on a massive scale. Spokane County taxpayers would have to choose between forking over hundreds of millions of dollars, or risk losing 5,500 jobs and the $1.2 billion Fairchild annually pumps into the local economy.

According to Ed Neunherz, a retired air force officer and ex-chairman of the Spokane Regional Chamber Commerce’s armed services committee: “If encroachment is allowed to continue around Fairchild Air Force Base, the base will be closed and our region’s largest employer will go away.”

That’s the conclusion of military and civilian officials nationwide — residential encroachment on military bases leads to almost certain closure. And yet Rep. Cathy McMorris, who the Spokesman-Review congratulated for adding “a strong and helpful voice in protecting Fairchild through the last round of base closures,” has officially endorsed I-933.

Once again McMorris has embraced inflammatory right-wing rhetoric over sound government policy, and you’d think the Seattle Times and the S-R, which both oppose I-933, might hold her accountable. Eh… apparently not.

UPDATE:
I’ve just been forwarded a piece from todays Whidbey New Times on this exact topic:

Since Whidbey Island Naval Air Station was placed on a base closure list in 1991, Oak Harbor and Island County officials have enacted a range of planning measures to protect the base and its long-term viability.

But such past and future planning efforts could be undermined by Initiative 933, the sweeping property rights initiative that’s on the ballot next week.

“It would mean turning back the planning clock, and in my mind, we’ve done some really good planning,” Oak Harbor Mayor Patty Cohen said.

It’s an interesting article that gives a real-world example of the type of land-use restrictions we’re talking about, and how they potentially impact both the property owner and the community at large.

From yesterday’s King County Journal:

Reichert rode with Bush in his motorcade when the president came to the Eastside in June to raise money for Reichert and the state Republican Party.

First, the procession roared along Interstate 5 and State Route 520 to get to the Medina mansion where the fundraiser was scheduled.

Stopped on an entrance to the freeway from I-90, students in several Issaquah School District buses crammed their faces against the windows and waved to the president’s motorcade. Bush waved back.

Bush was having a great time, Reichert told a group of veterans in Orting recently. At least until he came even with one of the bus drivers.

The president turned to Reichert and said the bus driver had flipped him off.

Later, Reichert called the school district. After an investigation, the 43-year-old bus driver was fired in early September.

You can argue all you want about the appropriateness of a school bus driver making an obscene gesture, and what kind of reprimand that might deserve, but the crystalizing point of this story is that a bus driver flipped off the President and in response Rep. Dave Reichert went out of his way to have her fired. In fact he’s so proud if it, he’s made the story part of his stump speech.

Flip off the President, lose your livelihood. That’s justice in Dave Reichert’s America, and shows you what a mean, sanctimonious, vengeful S.O.B. he can really be.

A vote for Reichert is a vote for a man who thinks you should lose your job if you disrespect President Bush.

UPDATE:
Hat tip to Aaron in the comment thread:

If a canvasser comes to your door asking you to vote for Stephen Johnson for state Supreme Court, be careful he isn’t carrying a sawed-off shotgun or trying to sell you meth. For at the same time the Building Industry Association of Washington (BIAW) has spent millions of dollars cynically attempting to characterize Johnson’s opponent, Justice Susan Owens as soft on crime… they’ve been staffing their Walking for Washington campaign with violent felons. You know, like state Sen. Pam Roach’s wayward son Stephen.

Stephen Roach was convicted on drug and weapons charges after he sold an undercover informant the powerful narcotic OxyContin. A September 2004 raid (on his mother Pam’s house) found “cash, OxyContin, scales, ‘marijuana packaged for sale,’ a .45-caliber handgun and a pair of shotguns — one of which was loaded and concealed behind the headboard of his bed.”

Stephen Roach was sentenced to 20 months in prison, but was erroneously released more than 100 days early after Corrections administrators, ignoring testimony from two officers, failed to take into account a prior assault that would have classified him at a higher risk of reoffending. Officials claim the decision had nothing to do with his mother’s political clout, although they also failed to properly inspect her home for weapons after an angry phone call from the often angry senator.

On May 1 of this year, Stephen Roach walked out of prison a free man, and almost immediately started walking the streets on behalf of BIAW-backed judicial candidates Stephen Johnson and John Groen. His first paycheck from Walking for Washington is dated May 16.

Yeah, that’s right… the convicted, drug-dealing son of a sitting, Republican state senator is “erroneously” released from prison more than 100 days early, and the BIAW immediately hires him to walk through residential neighborhoods and knock on peoples doors on behalf of a retiring Republican state senator and supreme court candidate.

Tough on crime? Pam Roach, Stephen Johnson and the BIAW may talk the talk, but when it comes to Walking for Washington they certainly don’t walk the walk.

The Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight (and every Tuesday), 8PM at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E.

I’ll be out trick or treating with my daughter, so I won’t be showing up until a little later in the evening. But when I do, I’ll be wearing my super-scary Tim Eyman costume.

Not in Seattle? Washington liberals will also be drinking tonight in the Tri-Cities and Vancouver. Here’s a full run down of WA’s ten Drinking Liberally chapters:

	Where:	When:	Next Meeting:
Burien:	Mick Kelly’s Irish Pub, 435 SW 152nd St	Fourth Wednesday of each month, 7:00 pm onward	November 22
Kirkland:	Valhalla Bar & Grill, 8544 122nd Ave NE	Every Thursday, 7:00 pm onward	November 2
Monroe:	Eddie’s Trackside Bar and Grill, 214 N Lewis St	Second Wednesday of each month, 7:00 PM onward	November 8
Olympia:	The Tumwater Valley Bar and Grill, 4611 Tumwater Valley Drive South	First and third Monday of each month, 7:00-9:00 pm	November 6
Seattle:	Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Ave E	Every Tuesday, 8:00 pm onward	October 31
Spokane:	Red Lion BBQ & Pub, 126 N Division St	Every Wednesday, 7:00 pm	November 1
Tacoma:	Meconi’s Pub, 709 Pacific Ave	Every Wednesday, 8:00 pm onward	November 1
Tri-Cities:	O’Callahans – Shilo Inn, 50 Comstock, Richland	Every Tuesday, 7:00 pm onward	October 31
Vancouver:	Hazel Dell Brew Pub, 8513 NE Highway 99	Second and fourth Tuesday of each month, 7:00 pm onward	November 14
Walla Walla:	The Green Lantern, 1606 E Isaacs Ave	First Friday of each month, 8:00 pm onward	November 3

(And apparently there’s also an unaffiliated liberal drinking group in Olympia that meets every Monday at 7PM at the Brotherhood Lounge, 119 N. Capital Way.)

Mike Stark, a blogger, Marine veteran, constituent and first-year law student at the University of Virginia, walked up to Sen. George Allen (R-VA) after a rally in Charlottesville this morning, and asked the senator to release his arrest records and confirm or deny reports that he spit on or otherwise assaulted his first wife. In response, Stark was assaulted himself.

As the TV footage shows, Stark was tackled by Allen staffers who slammed him head-first into a glass wall before dragging him out of the Omni Hotel. Stark intends to file charges.

Stark was not a “protester” as the news clip reports. He is a blogger and citizen journalist — just like me. Allen had gone to the lobby to field questions from the media, and Stark had as much of a right to be there as any other member of the press. And he certainly had the right not to be physically assaulted by Allen’s thugs.

Allen has a reputation for using violent metaphors, famously saying of Democrats in 1994: “Let’s enjoy knocking their soft teeth down their whiny throats.” Well this time, some of his staffers decided to take him literally.

Right-wingers intentionally choose violent rhetoric like this because they want to intimidate the opposition. And when words don’t work, eventually some of their loyalists will attempt to follow up with action. This is thuggery. This is the stuff of fascism.

What we have witnessed today is a crime, the grounds for a lawsuit, and I hope, the end of Sen. Allen’s political career.

A story I first broke back in August continues to gain momentum, with the Everett Herald devoting a large chunk of their front page yesterday to the plight of the residents of the Cedar Springs Bible Camp. The residents — mostly retired ministers, missionaries and church workers — built permanent homes on land leased from the Bible Camp, but now face eviction at the hands of Pastor Joe Fuiten, who recently took control of the board.

The politically connected Pastor Fuiten has become an influential player in the Washington State Republican Party, using his Cedar Park mega-church as a platform for promoting right-wing causes and candidates. He is a close advisor to US Senate candidate Mike McGavick, serving as an original member of his exploratory committee, and giving the invocation at his campaign kickoff. Fuiten is also a fierce opponent of gay civil rights, and promises another effort to repeal the state’s anti-discrimination laws.

Fuiten, who normally craves the media spotlight, seems a tad annoyed at the unwelcome and negative press coverage he’s been getting.

“That’s part of what fries me about these yahoos out there when they accuse us of not being interested in the poor,” Fuiten said. “We bless them with an inexpensive place to stay and they call us all kinds of names in the media.”

For the record, here’s one of those “yahoos” Fuiten is fried at:

Pastor Fuiten called this 80-year-old retired minister a “yahoo.” Hmm. That’s not very Christian of him.

Well, at least he didn’t call her a “Christian-hating Jew and homosexual.” (I believe that particular epithet was aimed at me.)

The lease dispute centers on Fuiten’s refusal to include an automatic renewal, a provision the residents have enjoyed for the past 40 years, and without which their homes become worthless. If Fuiten truly is interested in the poor he would find some way to accommodate elderly retirees like Rev. Cohrs-Thackwell, who has devoted her entire life to serving the same Assemblies of God denomination that Pastor Fuiten claims to represent.

And he better come to an accommodation quick, because this story is not going away. The residents now have competent legal representation, and are prepared for a battle of attrition. And the further the local media delve into this dispute, the further they will delve into Pastor Fuiten’s tangled web of financial and real estate dealings.

So to all my friends in the press who haven’t yet looked into this slowly unfolding scandal, I encourage you to take a gander. There’s plenty of story here to go around.

Just follow the money.

The civil war in Iraq continues to escalate, with American soldiers caught in the middle. A bomb tore through a crowded Baghdad market yesterday, killing at least 31 and injuring 51 others. At the same time, a marine fighting in Iraq’s Anbar province became the 100th US serviceman killed in October, the highest monthly death toll since President Bush famously announced “mission accomplished.”

Meanwhile, $133 million worth of weaponry has gone missing — nearly 4 percent of the pistols, assault rifles, machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades and other arms the Pentagon has supplied Iraqi security forces. Not that we could track these arms if we wanted, considering that the Defense Department has registered the serial numbers of only 10,000 of the 370,251 weapons it provided — less than 3 percent.

Both these wire stories appeared somewhere in today’s Seattle Times, but apparently neither was important enough to warrant a mention on the op-ed page of the our state’s largest newspaper. Instead, our fair city’s solemn guardians of public discourse chose to dedicate scarce column inches to yet another one-sided, partisan attack: “Denounce the ad, Darcy Burner.”

Compare that to the Seattle P-I, who on the very same morning chose to editorialize on trivial matters… you know… like the escalating violence in Iraq.

The president can’t be held directly responsible because he’s not up for election again. Short of impeachment and history’s harsh judgment, he won’t pay the price for a foreign policy folly that has made the world a more dangerous place.

But those who continue to aid and abet him in this disastrous policy are up for election, in just over a week, and voters across the country can and should hold them accountable.

Unless, of course, we want to stay the course.

As the P-I editorialists point out, in this election, “War is the issue“… an issue their colleagues at the Times seem determined to avoid until after election day. Because the Times knows that if voters do follow the P-I‘s advice, Dave Reichert will lose.

That’s why instead of addressing issues that voters truly care about, the Times editorialists are busy focusing on inside horse race bullshit, and rhetorical legerdemain like demanding Burner pull an accurate ad that she did not run.

Deconstruction anyone? Let’s see…

But there is one TV ad benefiting Democratic congressional candidate Darcy Burner that is beyond the pale, not because of what it says but because it violates a copyright of TVW, Washington’s public-affairs network.

Oh my. In an age when Karl Rove takes a war hero who left three limbs on the battlefield, and morphs him into Osama bin Laden, it’s an alleged copyright violation that the Times finds “beyond the pale.” How shocking.

But the thing is, the DCCC ad doesn’t violate anybody’s copyright. Reichert spoke for about 20 minutes that day, and by any legal definition the few seconds excerpted by the DCCC constitutes “fair use.” I myself have posted to HA longer clips from Reichert’s speech, and I’ve yet to receive any cease and desist orders from TVW. And if I did, I wouldn’t comply.

To argue that the DCCC has violated TVW’s copyright would be like arguing that I have violated the Seattle Times‘ copyright by block-quoting the paragraph above. If that truly represents Times publisher Frank Blethen’s expert interpretation of the “fair use doctrine” then I challenge the Times to sue me now, because I promise you Frank, I’m going to violate your copyright again. And again and again and again. In fact, you know what Frank..? I’m going to violate you again right now:

Burner should denounce the ad and call for its removal.

Take it like a man Frank, and get used to it… because in this new media landscape of excerpts and aggregation, you’re my bitch.

As to the Times‘ admonition that Burner should call on the DCCC to pull the ad, well, either their editorialists are getting their election law advice from the same quack advising them on fair use, or… they’re simply being disingenuous with their readers. (I’m guessing the latter.) Burner can’t call on the DCCC to pull the ad; that would be illegal. The FEC strictly prohibits coordination between campaigns and organizations engaging in independent expenditures, because otherwise the expenditure wouldn’t be, um… independent.

Like their feigned outrage over nonexistent copyright violations, the call for Burner to pull the ad is a red herring. As is the Times‘ tangential reference to the fact that the Burner campaign had ordered a copy of the tape months ago, as the video has been freely available on the internet to all comers since it first aired in May. (I linked to it way back on June 1.)

In fact, the entire editorial is nothing more than an elaborate (if poorly constructed) straw man argument intended to distract from the simple, devastating truth behind the DCCC’s ad: Dave Reichert publicly admitted that the Republican leadership tells him when to vote against them.

The Times refutes this, accusing the DCCC of taking the quote out of context:

The TV ad depicts Reichert at a meeting saying GOP leadership comes to him and tells him how to vote, and he’ll take the vote.

It omits his next line: “There are some times when I say, ‘No, I won’t.’ “

But what the Times omits is the five minutes of rambling preamble in which Reichert puts the disputed quote entirely in context:

I’ll tell you that back in Washington there are lots of games played and I just want to give you, we talk about freedom and we talk about America and we talk about the dream. The dream has to include everybody and there has to be compromise and we can’t have, I’ve been to district meetings in my district where people have said, “why in the world should I vote for you. It’s just like voting for a democrat for crying out loud.” I am going to vote libertarian and I said, “you know what sir, that would be a huge mistake and here’s why.” I’ve tried to explain to this person how things work a little bit back in Washington D.C. and why certain votes have to be taken. Sometimes the leadership comes to me and says “Dave we want you to vote a certain way” and they know I can do that over here. Another district isn’t a problem but over here I have to be very flexible of where I placed my votes. The big picture here is to keep the seat, keep the majority, and keep the country moving forward with republican ideals. Especially on the budget and protecting our troops who’re protecting this country and how that will be responsible with taxpayer dollars. That’s the big picture. Not the vote I place on ANWAR that you may not agree with or the vote that I placed on protecting salmon. You have to be flexible. So when the leadership comes to me and says , Dave you have to vote over here because we want to protect you and keep this majority, I do it. There are sometimes when I say no I won’t. There are sometimes when things come to the floor like Schiavo. I was one of five republicans that voted with the Democrats on Schiavo because that was the right thing to do.

Yes, Reichert broke with the GOP leadership on the Schiavo vote. He’d personally been through a wrenching end-of-life decision in his own family, and so he says he voted his conscience. (It didn’t hurt that he also voted with his district.) But that’s the only vote of conscience he cites.

Taken in the context of the entire speech, Reichert makes it absolutely clear that conservative Republicans should ignore his handful of moderate votes on things like the environment because “certain votes have to be taken” in order to “keep the seat.” Reichert bluntly (and stupidly) told the audience that the leadership tells him when to vote against them, and that is exactly what his audience of Republican elected officials understood him to say. How do I know? Two of them told me. State Rep. Toby Nixon (R-45) called the confession “shocking,” but went on to explain…

To be clear, by saying “it was shocking” I was expressing the surprise I felt at the time that Rep. Reichert was so open and frank about being approached in this manner, not at the fact that it happened. It is, in fact, quite common for majority party leadership to go to freshman members of their party and provide such guidance, in order to provide cover for those freshmen in their first re-election campaign when they are most vulnerable to challenge. It happens quite frequently in the Washington State House of Representatives, too.

Surely, the Times editorialists understand this. They read my blog. They’ve seen Nixon’s quote. They know how the political game is played.

And yet they continue to defend Reichert’s cynically manufactured image as a “conscience-driven independent,” because they also understand that his reelection hopes pivot on his ability to separate himself in the eyes of voters from President Bush, the Republican leadership and their failed policies at home and abroad.

That is what this latest anti-Burner editorial is all about. The DCCC ad is devastatingly effective because it uses Reichert’s own words to debunk his myth of independence. It also shows up the Times‘ stubborn defense of Reichert’s fictional independence as either stupid or dishonest. (Again, I’m guessing the latter.)

Indeed, the Times incessant Burning-bashing is almost comical in its logic. When Reichert’s media folks aren’t making up quotes out of whole cloth, they rely on single-word quotations like an ad for a bad movie… and yet it’s the Democrats who the Times accuses of lifting quotes out of context. And while Reichert has run a relentlessly negative and at times sexist campaign, it is Burner who Times editorialist Kate Riley accuses of “conjuring rage.” (Curiously, in her unsigned editorial endorsing Reichert, Riley criticizes Burner for her lack of public service, yet apparently believes she’s more than qualified to represent the voters of the 4th CD. Go figure.)

Yes, Burner has attempted to define her opponent through strongly worded TV spots, but then, so has Reichert. No wonder so many readers, bloggers and journalists have found it absolutely impossible to take seriously the Times‘ one-sided, I’m-rubber-you’re-glue, reality-distorted portrayal of this race.

The truth is, the Times doesn’t want their readers to take this race seriously, because if they seriously discussed the issues at stake — the issues that matter most to local voters — Reichert would lose. That’s why instead of editorializing on the Bush administration’s failed policy in Iraq — a policy Reichert has given every indication he would continue to support — the Times has instead chosen to focus on a bullshit, manufactured, campaign ad dispute that voters couldn’t care less about.

Reichert said what he said: he votes the way the leadership tells him to vote. And that is why he’s going to lose this election.

UPDATE:
Per Another TJ’s suggestion: