Burner leading the one poll that counts

There’s been some gloating from the other side recently about the latest SurveyUSA poll that shows incumbent Dave Reichert leading challenger Darcy Burner by a 51% to 45% margin. Yet these results are at odds with the Majority Watch poll conducted around the same time that shows Burner leading Reichert 49% to 47%.

Of course, both polls are within the margin of error so technically, it’s possible both could be right. But I’m leaning towards the Majority Watch figures, and not just because I want to believe them.

The key number that leaps out at me from the SurveyUSA crosstabs is the stunning fact that Burner holds a comfortable 8 point lead with the one quarter of respondents who have already voted. And this number is not an anomaly. Reliable sources now tell me that both candidates’ internal polls show Burner leading with early voters, though I have no idea by how much.

As one longtime observer of Eastside elections recently explained: “Show me a Democrat leading in early absentees, and I’ll show you a winner.” And he’s not the only one to view early ballots as a meaningful statistic. Despite a plethora of polls showing Republican John Kyl with a steady lead over Democrat Jim Pederson, the DSCC just bought gobs of airtime in Arizona after internal polling showed Pederson leading Kyl by 4% with early voters in that Senate race.

That said, there are other numbers which I find suspect. SurveyUSA shows Reichert leading with both women and independents, results at odds with both the Majority Watch survey, and… well… my intuition. I am particularly struck by Reichert’s purported 10 point lead with independents, a result that defies national trends showing independents breaking towards Democratic candidates by wide margins. Usually, independents tend to split fairly evenly between the two parties, but as Stuart Rothenberg points out today, this isn’t your usual election.

“There just aren’t any independents this year,” joked one Republican strategist I talked with recently. “There are Republicans, Democrats and soft Democrats.”

I dunno. Perhaps 8th CD independents really are different from their national counterparts. Perhaps Reichert’s reputation as “the Sheriff” — deserved or not — really does make him immune to the national Democratic wave. But… I don’t think so.

Comments

  1. 2

    Daddy Love spews:

    Final New York Times/CBS News poll before the midterm election:

    “The poll showed that 29 percent of Americans approve of the way President Bush is managing the war, matching the lowest mark of his presidency. Nearly 70 percent said Mr. Bush did not have a plan to end the war, and 80 percent said Mr. Bush’s latest effort to rally public support for the conflict amounted to a change in language but not policy.”

    “…Among registered voters, 33 percent said they planned to support Republicans, and 52 percent said they would vote for Democrats…”

    “Mr. Bush’s overall approval rating was 34 percent, unchanged from a poll three weeks ago, an anemic rating that explains why many Democrats are featuring him in their final advertisements, as well as why some Republican incumbents do not want him at their side.”

    “That approval rating is 9 points below where former President Bill Clinton’s was in October 1994 — the election in which Republicans surprised Democrats by taking control of the House — and 28 points below where Mr. Bush’s approval rating was on the eve of the 2002 midterms.”

    What’s Mr. Bush’s plan again, wingnuts? Oh yeah, stay the course.

  2. 3

    Another TJ spews:

    You have a foregone conclusion for which you go out and find things that support that conclusion all the while ignoring facts that run counter to the conclusion.

    There’s an old saying that sums it up pretty well: He uses facts the way a drunk uses a lamppost, for support rather than illumination.

  3. 4

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    See previous thread for the extensive dressing-down that I gave Redneck this morning. Man did he have that coming.

  4. 5

    Daddy Love spews:

    33

    Ooh, there might be one you DON’T lose? And it’s the Southern state where a black man is tryg to be the first black Senator from the South since the Reconstruction, in a race where the opposition party is smearing him by implying that he’s sleeping wiht white women? Amazing. Who would have thought you could win that one?

  5. 6

    Daddy Love spews:

    Sure, MWS

    A five-times-decorated veteran who founded a veterans’ organization and who is a persistent critic of the administration was criticizing the troops and not the Bushies. Real credible.

    Former Sen. Max Cleland (D-Ga.), who lost three limbs in Vietnam:
    “He has stood with his brothers in arms unlike this [Bush] Administration which exploits our troops to make a political point and divide America. John Kerry should apologize to no one for his criticism of the President and his broken policy in Iraq. George Bush is the one who owes our troops an apology.”

    Damn right.

  6. 8

    Don Joe spews:

    There are other elements in the SurveyUSA cross tab that don’t seem to add up. Reichert leads among college educated and wealthy voters, but Burner leads in Bellevue and East King County? Doesn’t that imply the Pierce County portion of the sample had a disproportionate number of wealthy and college-educated voters?

    Of course, I’m neither a statistician nor a political scientist, so maybe someone can explain this cross-tab?

    Unfortunately, the majority report cross-tab doesn’t list income/education demographics. It would be interesting to compare them.

  7. 9

    Mike Webb Sucks spews:

    Cops Say Florida Mom Duct-Taped Her Children, Left Them at Home All Day

    Another moonbat at work.

  8. 10

    eponymous coward spews:

    D leads in absentees on the Eastside are not just bad news for Recihert, they are bad news for the Rs in the 41/45/48/47 belt of districts.

    Maybe they’ll be some split tickets…but it ain’t good if you want to keep from being turned from a speedbump in the State Senate if and when you can convince Hargrove and Sheldon to come into your caucus for a vote into complete irrelevancy ala the House. Once again, Mike!™ McGavick’s weakness at the top screws people below.

  9. 11

    ConservativeFirst spews:

    Commentby Daddy Love— 11/2/06@ 1:08 pm

    “You guys lost the House and possibly the Senate.”

    How do you know this? Do you have a time machine?

  10. 12

    rhp6033 spews:

    I’m still waiting for the McGavick direct-mail piece mailed this week. You know, the one he said yesterday that he was devoting his campaign finances to when he cancelled a good amount of his media buy?

    Gotta be one hell of a piece of literature. If he didn’t pay for it until yesterday, then the earliest it will be in my mailbox tomorrow (Friday) or Saturday (assuming first-class postage).

    Of course, this morning they said 1/3 of the eligible voters in Washington had already cast their ballots, and 1/2 will do so by the weekend. I think that’s low, because they were counting ballots as they were RECEIVED, not ballots when they were mailed. I think the majority of the ballots are already in the mail.

    So McGavick is spending money on a direct mailer which will cross in the mail with the ballots he hopes to influence? Is that how he plans on bringing “efficiency” to government?

  11. 13

    rhp6033 spews:

    ““You guys lost the House and possibly the Senate.” How do you know this? Do you have a time machine?”

    Actually, if this were a Monday Night football game from a decade earlier, Don Meredith would be singing “The Party’s Over” right about now.

  12. 14

    proud leftist spews:

    Hey, MWS,
    Was school just a half-day today? You seem to be ranting earlier than usual. Hopefully, you’re not home ill. I’d hate to think that you might be suffering from anything more than your usual delusions.

  13. 15

    For the Clueless spews:

    I find information useful for my argument.

    Yeah sure. Like that Gorelick wall bullshit..

  14. 16

    Daddy Love spews:

    2 Steve

    They’re hitting Reichert pretty hard where it hurts, though
    1. Tying him closely to Bush’s failed agenda and failed policies
    2. Reminding voters of his undistinguished record in office (“He had his chance. And he went the wrong way.”)

    Reichert and the NRCC have been hitting on the “Scary Darcy” theme (“She wants immigrants to take your job!” and “She has a secret plan to raise your taxes!”). This week I’m seeing a lot of “She’s not qualified” ads. Never held elective office? Netiher has Mike! McGavick. And neither Mike! nor Dave! had experience in the legislative arena, just executive/administrative experience, which doesn’t transfer well to the collegial consensus building required of a legislator. Executives expect their orders to be obeyed and their decisions executed. Often they lack the patience for the drudgery of building support for legislation. No doubt that’s why Dave just votes where they tell him to–he’s just not that into it, except as a vehicle for his ambition.

  15. 18

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    23

    Nice graphics, no brains. And Mark1 thinks I’m “juvenile and immature”? (pause) (raucous rabbit laughter)

  16. 19

    Mike Webb Sucks spews:

    Oh boy the NY Times is helping the cause:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11.....nted=print

    “Among the dozens of documents in English were Iraqi reports written in the 1990’s and in 2002 for United Nations inspectors in charge of making sure Iraq abandoned its unconventional arms programs after the Persian Gulf war. Experts say that at the time, Mr. Hussein’s scientists were on the verge of building an atom bomb, as little as a year away.”

    Wow in the NYT no less. Thought I’d miss this Goldie?

    But the moonbats said Bush lied. No WMDs. But they were within a year of a bomb but made some mistakes?

  17. 20

    For the Clueless spews:

    Hey WOS – it’s guys like you and Pastor Ted that motivate decent people to come out to the polls and throw your whole sick crowd out.

  18. 21

    GBS spews:

    SURFS UP!!

    I see the MONSTER sized BLUE wave coming. Speaker Pelosi, meet Senate Majority Leader, Reid.

    Baaa haaa haaa haaa haaa.

    We’ve been telling these loser wing-nuts for months, YEARS even, that their policies were flawed. But, the were too arrogant to listen, now, they’re going to pay the price.

    I can’t wait to have Reichert ask me if I’d “like fries with my Big Mac?”

    JCH, you’ll be promoted to cleaning the public urinals with Reichert. The best part, I’ll never have to read your retarded dribble again.

  19. 22

    brady spews:

    MWS-if you have the unbridled urge to perform fellatio on another man, try Craig’s List. In the meantime spare us the inane Limbaugh/O’Reilly talking points. Strive to be original. After next Tuesday, you’ll have to reawaken your conscience, if you were ever in possession of one.

  20. 23

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Nothing but more bad news for rightys in today’s polls! http://www.electoral-vote.com/ says Democrats have pulled ahead in the Senate 50-49, and now lead the House 241-193. The other races are ties.

    Looks like they’re getting no traction from Kerry’s flub. No matter how much Repulsives exploit our troops to whip up emotional heat for selfish partisan gain, voters “stay the course” in their determination to correct the lies, blunders, incompetence, and corruption of the last 6 years.

    Just a few days to go …

    INVESTIGATIONS! SUBPOENAS! FROG MARCHES! TRIALS! PINK JUMPSUITS!

  21. 24

    Daddy Love spews:

    9 MWS

    Is it any wonder, when Bush has shown that he and his crazy fucking cowboy friends will invade and occupy Muslim Arab states without anything more than a thin pretext?

  22. 25

    Daddy Love spews:

    12 MWS

    Oh, and you’re so close to the “troops in the field.” Can you pick them up with your tinfoil hat?

  23. 26

    Steve spews:

    I think Darcy Burner might win because of the “wave” some people are talking about due to the huge Dem lead in generic polls. I don’t think her advertising campaign was very helpful; it only got her to the same 48% she already had by being a respectable Democrat in a year when the Republicans look really bad. To defeat an incumbent with all the advantages that incumbency has, one needs to attack that incumbent. Following Rove’s approach, one should attack the opponent’s strengths, not his weaknesses. Here, Reichert is still running as the “hero” sheriff, but nobody — Burner or Dem party –is using the material available to attack him on that, e.g., P-I stories on sheriff’s office mismanagement, failure for years to properly deal with a deputy who was a criminal, even his failure to catch Ridgeway promptly (waiting several years to get his DNA tested). Some good honest attack ads would have destroyed Reichert’s lead by now.

  24. 27

    For the Clueless spews:

    Hey WOS – a man who cheats on his wife with a gay prostitute and preaches morality has Shrubya’s ear once a week.

    Your kind of guy right? Doesn’t it make you proud to be wingnut?

  25. 28

    Mike Webb Sucks spews:

    Look at post #9. Now we read the Muslim father who cut off is daughter’s clitoris received 10 years. We know Muslims are being told vote moonbat so he must be one!

    Now we read this: Cleric: Criticizing Islam Threatens Peace

    http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/arti.....724S92.DTL

    Maybe that’s why the Now and Nag feminazis have nothing to say about the mutilation of the girl or the Australian moron who said white women who wear suggestive clothes and say their hips provocatively deserved their rapes!

  26. 30

    Don Joe spews:

    By the way, Webbster, back in 2003, I was one of the folks who thought that a real threat existed from Saddam Hussein, though I tended more toward Kenneth Pollack’s view that Bush was being a bit premature.

    That one can now find documents that suggest the possibility of something after we went in and invaded Iraq doesn’t change the fact that we did not have that evidence in hand when we did invade Iraq.

    More importantly, regardless of the justification or lack there of, that this President and this Administration has so screwed up this endeavor as to render it nearly unsalvagable is as undeniable a fact as is the color of the sky over your head or the grass under your feet. Whether we should or should not have invaded Iraq, clearly George W. Bush was the wrong President to do it.

  27. 31

    roger rabbit spews:

    “Oh poor Don Joe: If he could only read: “That one can now find documents that suggest the possibility of something after we went in and invaded Iraq doesn?t change the fact that we did not have that evidence in hand when we did invade Iraq.”

    But Don Joe has comprehension issues because:

    “European diplomats said this week that some of those nuclear documents on the Web site were identical to the ones presented to the United Nations Security Council in late 2002, as America got ready to invade Iraq. But unlike those on the Web site, the papers given to the Security Council had been extensively edited, to remove sensitive information on unconventional arms.””

    Mike-This doesn’t make sense. Every weopon has a use!!!

  28. 33

    For the Clueless spews:

    Ok WOS, show me the link where the Indian Fighter Slade Gorton agrees with you?

    Can’t? Didn’t think you would..

    I’ve already shown you the one where he disagrees with you – in the MOONIE TIMES. And I never click on a wingnut link – only MSM. I don’t want my ip address drawn into your web of wingnut loonies.

  29. 34

    Daddy Love spews:

    40 ConservativeFirst

    “You guys lost the House and possibly the Senate.” How do you know this? Do you have a time machine?

    If you’re going to get all snarky, you would be more correct to say merely, “We have not. We will next week.”

    I used the past tense as shorthand. But the House is gone, pal. Start your mental adjustment now. The Senate? Totally too early to tell, but it will be close. For example, next judicial appointment, we turn one GOP Senator adnd it’s over. And forget about the “nuclear option.” Not even a simple majority for that.

  30. 36

    Daddy Love spews:

    7 MWS

    You’re right. Bush sends even the smart guys to Iraq. No help there. Kerry should have pointed that out. Wait, I think he already has.

  31. 37

    Apollo spews:

    If only Burner had ever done anything besides supervising a few blue badges, she might actually be qualified for city council.

    That is all that Washington State needs is one more lightweight representative (Murray, Cantwell)…

    Doc gets things done. Nobody knows what Cantwell has done besides getting back in to her Suburban after complaining about the high price of gas.

    Washington State is hopeless. 50 years from now, you will still be debating whether to add 2 bike lanes or 4 to the 520 bridge.

  32. 38

    Mike Webb Sucks spews:

    Oh poor Don Joe: If he could only read: “That one can now find documents that suggest the possibility of something after we went in and invaded Iraq doesn’t change the fact that we did not have that evidence in hand when we did invade Iraq.”

    But Don Joe has comprehension issues because:

    “European diplomats said this week that some of those nuclear documents on the Web site were identical to the ones presented to the United Nations Security Council in late 2002, as America got ready to invade Iraq. But unlike those on the Web site, the papers given to the Security Council had been extensively edited, to remove sensitive information on unconventional arms.”

  33. 39

    Observer spews:

    Hates his Mommy-

    When all you read is the crap put out by Goldy and his ilk, then it’s understandable that you are deluded. Contrary to his hopeful title above, there is only one poll that counts, and noone has the numbers yet, noone.

    Counting chicken before….

  34. 40

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    REDNECK INSULTS SCANDINAVIANS!

    See previous thread for Redneck’s insulting comments about “Scandahoovians.” On behalf of Norwegians, Finns, Swedes, Danes, and other Scandinavians everywhere, and also on behalf of the King of Norway and the Queen of Denmark, I demand an apology from Redneck! It’s not hard, Redneck. All you have to say is, “I’m sorry I made a stoopid remark.” If Kerry can do it, you can do it! Or maybe you prefer that people think Kerry is smart than you, and has more class than you. Which happens to be true, but don’t let that stop you from apologizing for your boorish, insensitive, racist, insulting remarks about our friends and allies in northern Europe. After all, these people held the line for us during the Cold War. So fuck you, Redneck! Pay your gambling debt to Goldy.

  35. 41

    For the Clueless spews:

    Hey WOS –

    Are you into “New Life”?

    I hear tell that Pastor Ted and Shrubya shoot the sh*t once a week or used to at least. Kind of like that Gorelick wall bullshit you used to drop all the time…

    Poor WOS…

  36. 42

    Nindid spews:

    One possible option for the independents’ behavior in these polls is that they are really Republicans who are so turned off by the idea of being a Republican that they call themselves independents. As you say it is hard to judge at this point and it was always going to be close so lets hit the GOTV and win this baby.

  37. 43

    Daddy Love spews:

    MWS

    You pick up on the propaganda pic of a few National Guard members from Minnesota. Somehow not impressive.

  38. 44

    JCH [Pennsylvania] spews:

    JCH,

    You wouldn’t know this, but in the Navy we’d say “5 and a wake up.”

    That’s how long you have on HA blog after the Dems clean house in congress.

    Buhhhhh-bye.

    Commentby GBS […….GBS, You are soooooo short on HA.ORG you can’t see over a dime. Soon you will be nothing but a dumb ass, liberal, socialist Democrat memory.]

  39. 45

    Mike Webb Sucks spews:

    Weren’t these the same moonbats crowing over John Effin Carry’s formidable lead and soon victory?

    Look at the polling demograhics moonbats. The samples always are skewed donk!

  40. 48

    Mike Webb Sucks spews:

    Clueless: I don’t parrot the standard line. I find information useful for my argument. Pinheads like proud leftist call it cut-and-paste. Yet when I evaluate the puny arguments put forth by you, they come straight from the moonbat Internet. No cogent thought from HorsesAsses!

    When I delivered the New Jersey population demographic for the senatoral polls most of you brushed it off. That was great detective work, yet facts hurt the librul mind.

  41. 49

    Mike Webb Sucks spews:

    Daddy Love, you brought up the Minnesota thing. I reminded you the state demographic.

    Furball and Carl love to brag about the high librul content of our military. So from a moonbat state we have John Effin Carry hyperbole, you called it a… “propaganda pic of a few National Guard members from Minnesota. Somehow not impressive.”

    Looks like your shit really stinks, huh?

  42. 51

    roger rabbit spews:

    “Washington State is hopeless. 50 years from now, you will still be debating whether to add 2 bike lanes or 4 to the 520 bridge.”

    Apollo-I don’t care. by then I’ll be either dead or in a coma.

  43. 52

    Anonymous spews:

    New York Times
    November 2, 2006, 1:17 pm
    Race Tracker: Tennessee’s Tilting Red
    By Adam Nagourney

    We are making a change in our ratings today in the Tennessee Senate race – switching it from tossup to leaning Republican. A series of recent polls suggest that Bob Corker, the Republican, is opening up a significant lead over Representative Harold Ford Jr., reinforcing reports we had been hearing out of Tennessee that Mr. Ford had been going through some difficult times, at the same moment that Mr. Corker had hit his stride.

  44. 53

    wayne spews:

    Keep an eye on Arizona. There hasn’t been that much polling and none in the last week except Zogby (which might as well be none.) Pederson has been steadily whittling down Kyl’s lead, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Pederson was within 3 or 4 right now.

    One of the themes the GOP is currently pushing is that the polls are wrong and the GOP GOTV effort will turn the tide. Of course, you can hardly expect them to say the polls are right, so that is their only option. However, the pre-election polls in 2004 were generally pretty good. I am hoping they are just as accurate this year.

  45. 54

    Daddy Love spews:

    Observer

    I’m not too worried. Again, Darcy may win and Darcy may lose, but your boys are goin’ down, Dave’ll be riding a back bench if he’s even still in the Congress, and Mike! will have to go join Dino Rossi in his undisclosed location as they wait to joust for the GOP nom. for Governor in ’08.

  46. 55

    Mike Webb Sucks spews:

    #22: I remember the King 5 poll weeks ago which had >40% moonbat stats in their sample which skewed the numbers way left. The only poll that counts happens on election day. So we’ll see.

  47. 56

    Daddy Love spews:

    23

    Yeah, yeah. Ooh, that hurts. Ouch, you really got me.

    You seem to have an overly simplistic view of…well, everything, but in this particular case of the whole Red/Blue thing. Can you say “There are Republicans in Minnesota?” I knew you could!

  48. 57

    For the Clueless spews:

    Daddy Love: play it up! It’s classic wingnut hypocrisy!

    that WOS is too afraid to deal with…

  49. 58

    Daddy Love spews:

    You know, we live in or near the 8th and get all up about what’s happening in this race, but the bottom line is:

    You guys lost the House and possibly the Senate. Goerge Bush’s agenda is dead. SS is saved. The people are about to find out the REAL extent of the covered-up corruption and deceit in both the Republican Congress and the administration, and we’re going to pass some progressive legislation along the way. Enjoy the fucking ride.

  50. 59

    Daddy Love spews:

    What’s worth repeating? This:

    Reliable sources now tell me that both candidates’ internal polls show Burner leading with early voters, though I have no idea by how much.

    As one longtime observer of Eastside elections recently explained: “Show me a Democrat leading in early absentees, and I’ll show you a winner.”

  51. 60

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    64

    What’s Mr. Bush’s plan again, wingnuts? Oh yeah, stay the course. Commentby Daddy Love— 11/2/06@ 3:41 pm

    No, “stay the course” is out and “flexibility” is in. The “Vietnamization” of the Iraq war has begun.

  52. 61

    Mike Webb Sucks spews:

    Daddy Love: Very Impressive since Minnesota is MOONBAT, you STUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUPIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIID moron!

  53. 62

    stedman spews:

    That’s the message voters are getting from all this. The message being that at the first sign of trouble the Dems do just what they’ve been accused of: They cut and run!

  54. 63

    spews:

    If comment 1 is true (that republican are calling themselves Independent), then this poll may be suspect for having too large a representation of republicans.

  55. 64

    Mike Webb Sucks spews:

    Amazing Daddy Love how the troops react differently from you the moonbats.

    I’ll take the troops in the field any day of the week over moonbat-speak!

  56. 65

    me spews:

    Current vote totals:

    County___ BallotsCast___ LastMatchback
    Adams__ 907 ballots___ 10/27/2006 5:45:57 PM
    Benton__ 9678 ballots___ 10/30/2006 5:00:31 PM
    Chelan__ 5982 ballots___ 10/27/2006 4:26:47 PM
    Clallam__ 14748 ballots___ 11/2/2006 12:01:41 PM
    Clark__ 51906 ballots___ 11/2/2006 10:31:04 AM
    Cowlitz__ 1991 ballots___ 10/27/2006 5:56:28 PM
    Douglas__ 3718 ballots___ 10/27/2006 5:28:25 PM
    Franklin__ 4949 ballots___ 11/1/2006 5:50:22 PM
    Grant__ 4377 ballots___ 10/27/2006 4:26:47 PM
    Grays Harbor__ 6132 ballots___ 10/27/2006 5:28:25 PM
    Island__ 5684 ballots___ 10/27/2006 5:15:08 PM
    Jefferson__ 5313 ballots___ 10/27/2006 3:37:36 PM
    King__ 142233 ballots___ 11/2/2006 10:31:04 AM
    Kitsap__ 40359 ballots___ 11/2/2006 10:31:04 AM
    Kittitas__ 2897 ballots___ 10/27/2006 5:28:25 PM
    Klickitat__ 389 ballots___ 10/23/2006 7:11:58 PM
    lewis__ 6088 ballots___ 10/27/2006 11:52:07 AM
    Lincoln__ 1219 ballots___ 10/27/2006 5:15:08 PM
    Mason__ 9038 ballots___ 11/1/2006 4:42:44 PM
    Okanogan__ 3554 ballots___ 10/27/2006 4:26:47 PM
    Pacific__ 467 ballots___ 10/30/2006 5:00:31 PM
    Pierce__ 60400 ballots___ 11/1/2006 4:41:18 PM
    San Juan__ 3607 ballots___ 11/2/2006 12:00:11 PM
    Skagit__ 12128 ballots___ 11/2/2006 12:00:11 PM
    Snohomish__ 60383 ballots___ 11/1/2006 4:41:18 PM
    Spokane__ 74034 ballots___ 11/1/2006 4:41:18 PM
    Stevens__ 4653 ballots___ 10/31/2006 2:59:15 PM
    Thurston__ 29699 ballots___ 11/1/2006 10:32:33 AM
    Wahkiakum__ 515 ballots___ 10/27/2006 5:56:28 PM
    Walla Walla__ 5076 ballots___ 10/31/2006 5:33:21 PM
    Whatcom__ 29112 ballots___ 11/1/2006 5:50:22 PM
    Whitman__ 2844 ballots___ 10/27/2006 11:31:46 AM
    Yakima__ 15549 ballots___ 10/27/2006 5:15:08 PM

  57. 67

    palamedes spews:

    Goldy;

    I think the SUSA poll is flawed in that someone looked at the geography of the CD, thought they should get even numbers of respondents from each county, and maybe worked their way up to Auburn to get enough votes in the south end of the CD.

    Reichert is allegedly ahead in this same poll by 11 points among people who say that they haven’t yet voted, but will. That plus the 8 point lead among absentee ballot voters tells me a lot.

    The Eastside loves to vote, and it loves to vote absentee. A precinct with anything under 75% is considered one that needs help in the Eastside.

    The southern portion of the 8th CD prefers to vote at the booth, and their turnout isn’t often all that good. (It’s one reason the Roaches typically do well in their races, because they have a core of committed camp followers.) Pam’s toughest race was when the local Dems focused on voter registration and getting low-frequency Dems to vote.

    That doesn’t give anybody supporting Darcy an excuse to relax – I still think this race will be very close – but it at least explains the SUSA results in loght of local realities.

  58. 69

    Daddy Love spews:

    36 MWS

    Look at the polling demograhics moonbats.

    Why don’t you explain to us how their sample is skewed? What should it be and why?

  59. 70

    Don Joe spews:

    MWS:

    Clueless: I don’t parrot the standard line. I find information useful for my argument.

    And that’s precisely the problem. You have a foregone conclusion for which you go out and find things that support that conclusion all the while ignoring facts that run counter to the conclusion. This happened rather starkly in the whole discussion about gas prices where you couldn’t draw an actual causal link between inventories and gas prices.

    Those of use who prefer to be grounded in reality start out by surveying the facts without having drawn any preconceived conclusions. Only after we’ve looked at all the relevant facts do we start to come to a conclusion. That’s the difference between pragmatists and idealogues.

    Pragmatists don’t spend a lot of time attacking John Kerry for his slip of the tongue. We’d rather go out and attack our true enemies. Idealogues, on the other hand, waste enormouose amounts of time attacking other Americans while our true enemies elude our capture and justice.

  60. 71

    proud leftist spews:

    Observer
    Show us some backbone. Commit to print your belief that the Republicans will keep both the House and Senate. Hell, maybe you even think they’ll increase their margins in the House and Senate. Given that you so plainly have your thumb on the pulse of the American electorate, you should be able to give us a precise breakdown of the numbers in Congress after the election. Come on, share with us.

  61. 75

    stedman spews:

    You know what this whole Kerry thing proves to voters: Democrats are weak and wishy washy. The way fellow Dems turned on Kerry for something he never said or meant to say was nothing short of disgusting — demanding that he apologize. And he did it.

    If he’d just stood firm and told everyone to kiss off, it would be all over. Now, it’s a whole new news cycle with the “Kerry Apologizes” BS.

    Dems are a bunch of weak sisters.

  62. 76

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    ANOTHER FREE MARKET SUCCESS STORY (sarcasm)

    “Updated:2006-11-02 13:52:06
    “Former CA Chief Kumar Sentenced to 12 Years
    “By TOM HAYS
    “AP
    “NEW YORK (Nov. 2) – The former chief executive of Computer Associates International Inc. was sentenced to 12 years in prison and was fined $8 million on Thursday for his role in a massive accounting fraud scandal at one of the world’s largest software companies.”

    This article is quoted under Fair Use doctrine. For complete story and/or copyright info, kiss my cute cottontail or click on http://tinyurl.com/yel4sc . For a good time, call 1-800-LICK-ROG.

    Roger Rabbit Comment: Fuck Redneck’s “invisible hand.” I’m sick and tired of cheap-labor Republican thieves reaching their invisible hands into my pocket! When I see a Republican “free market” capitalist, I want to see his hands! Now! Hands! Show me your hands! Or I’m gonna fucking shoot! Hey, just kidding about shooting … well, maybe not … why don’t you think about it … and pay your gambling debt to Goldy, Redneck, you fucking lying welsher!

  63. 77

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Redneck’s having a bad day. I kicked his sorry ass all the way back to the Enumclaw horse barn!

  64. 78

    Don Joe spews:

    Yes, Webbster, the NYT has an article that managed to contradict itself:

    Some intelligence officials feared that individual documents, translated and interpreted by amateurs, would be used out of context to second-guess the intelligence agencies’ view that Mr. Hussein did not have unconventional weapons or substantive ties to Al Qaeda.

    (Emphasis added).

    So, let’s see, we two completely different sets of unnamed “experts” saying completely contradictory things. The only reasonabl conclusion is that this particular reporter either didn’t do very good homework, or just can’t write very clearly.

    Back to yout lamp post, Webbster.