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Archives for August 2012

Open thread 8/8

by Darryl — Wednesday, 8/8/12, 9:09 am

Election results:

  • Whew! Gonzalez ahead in Supreme Court race
  • First CD: DelBene and Koster
  • Gov: “Inslee earned 46.8 percent of the vote and McKenna earned 42.9”
  • Seattle libraries, county juvenile-justice levies are up
  • Re: last night—Publicola election miscellanea
  • WA SOS elections page
  • Nationally, a rough night for incumbents

A brief history of that Badass Harry Reid

Washington fights to keep tourism alive.

The MittVeePstakes are heating up.

“Mitt Romney is laboring under the lowest personal popularity ratings for a presumptive presidential nominee in midsummer election-year polls back to 1984.”

Caught on video: Hillary Clinton dancing in South Africa!

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Poll Analysis: Obama gains in electoral votes

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/7/12, 6:40 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 336 electoral votes Mean of 202 electoral votes

The previous analysis of state head-to-head polls gave President Barack Obama the lead over Romney by an average of 327 to 211 electoral votes and a 99.6% probability of winning a hypothetical late-July election.

We have lots of new polls weighing in on the situation:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AL Research Consultants 23-Jul 26-Jul 600 4.0 34 59 R+25
AZ PPP 23-Jul 25-Jul 833 — 41 52 R+11
CO Rasmussen 06-Aug 06-Aug 500 4.5 47 47 tie
CO PPP 02-Aug 05-Aug 779 3.5 49 43 O+6
CT PPP 26-Jul 29-Jul 771 3.5 51 43 O+8
FL PPP 26-Jul 29-Jul 871 3.3 48 47 O+1
FL Quinnipiac 24-Jul 30-Jul 1177 — 51 45 O+6
GA SurveyUSA 29-Jul 29-Jul 1169 — 42 50 R+8
GA InsiderAdvantage 24-Jul 24-Jul 591 — 40.5 49.8 R+9.3
IN Rasmussen 31-Jul 01-Aug 400 5.0 35 51 R+16
MI EPIC/MRA 24-Jul 31-Jul 600 4.0 48 42 O+6
MO Rasmussen 30-Jul 30-Jul 500 4.5 44 50 R+6
MO Mason-Dixon 23-Jul 25-Jul 625 4.0 42 51 R+9
MO WeAskAmerica 24-Jul 24-Jul 1172 3.0 39.7 49.0 R+9.3
NV Rasmussen 24-Jul 24-Jul 500 4.5 50 45 O+5
NJ Fairleigh Dickinson 23-Jul 29-Jul 849 3.5 49 36 O+13
NJ Monmouth 18-Jul 22-Jul 535 4.2 50 42 O+8
NC PPP 02-Aug 05-Aug 813 3.4 49 46 O+3
NC Rasmussen 01-Aug 01-Aug 500 4.5 44 49 R+5
OH Quinnipiac 24-Jul 30-Jul 1193 — 50 44 O+6
OH WeAskAmerica 24-Jul 24-Jul 1115 3.0 47.8 40.2 O+7.6
OH Magellan Strategies 23-Jul 24-Jul 597 4.0 45 43 O+2
PA Quinnipiac 24-Jul 30-Jul 1168 — 53 42 O+11
SD Neilson Brothers 19-Jul 23-Jul 546 4.2 42 49 R+7
VA Capitol Correspondent 30-Jul 31-Jul 563 4.1 44.2 39.6 O+4.6
WA SurveyUSA 01-Aug 02-Aug 524 4.4 54.1 37.0 O+17.1
WI Rasmussen 25-Jul 25-Jul 500 4.5 49 46 O+3

Romney is running strong in the places you’d expect: Alabama, Arizona, Georgia (in 2 polls), and South Dakota.

Indiana has been something of a mystery. Obama eked out a win in 2008, and there hasn’t been much polling because the state law makes polling difficult. The new (very small) Rasmussen poll finds Romney with a solid lead.

Missouri is also looking pretty solid for Romney with a +6, +9, and +9 in the new polls.

North Carolina goes both ways, giving Obama a +3% and Romney a +5% lead. Combined with one other recent poll, Obama’s chances in the state are a 53% probability of winning (now):

ObamaRomney07Jul12-07Aug12North Carolina

Two Colorado polls give Obama the edge there, with an 81% probability of taking the state.

Florida gives Obama a tiny (+1%) lead. He has now taken three consecutive polls, and four of the six current polls.

Remember when Pennsylvania used to be considered a swing state? It’s pretty hard to make a straight-faced argument that the state will switch to Romney:

ObamaRomney07Jul12-07Aug12Pennsylvania

The other swing state, Ohio, gets three polls this week, and all three go for Obama. Here again, Ohio is pretty consistently putting Obama over Romney:

ObamaRomney07Jul12-07Aug12Ohio

Wisconsin gives Obama a slender +3% lead. This is the fifth consecutive lead for Obama, going back to mid-June. The two polls, taken together, give Obama a 96% chance of taking the state.

Nevada has Obama up by a single-digit (+5%) lead over Romney, but there can be little question about the state now. Consider this: Romney has not led in the last eleven polls. One has to go back to March—March of 2011, not 2012—to find a poll with Romney in the lead.

With this Michigan poll, giving Obama a +6% lead, Obama has “won” three of the four current polls.

Virginia almost matches Florida for being a swing state. This time, Obama takes the lead. Perhaps we can discern a small Obama edge in the recent polling history:

ObamaRomney07Jul12-07Aug12Virginia

Finally, we have no surprises in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Washington giving Obama the lead.

With all these new polls, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,968 times and Romney wins 32 times. Obama receives (on average) 336 (+9) to Romney’s 202 (-9) electoral votes. Based on simulations, in an election held now, we’d expect Obama to have almost a 100.0% probability of beating Romney.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/7/12, 3:38 pm

It is election day in Washington state. So fill out that ballot, drop it in the mail or a drop box and then join us for an evening of politics, conversation, and election watching over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters meet, and Thursday night Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.

With 231 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Mitt Romney: No Apology: Chapter 1 The Pursuit of the Difficult (pages 19-26)

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 8/7/12, 12:47 pm

[I’m on vacation this week, but I’m reading and doing some metacommentary on Mitt Romney’s book. Enjoy, or skip over it: it’s a free country.]

Remember in the intro, where I complained that Mitt Romney didn’t mention any of his hardships? I think it might be because his greatest hardship in life was weeding his father’s garden when he was like 14. Here’s how he opens this chapter:

I hate to weed. I’ve hated it ever since my father put me to work weeding the garden at our home in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan. It was planted with zinnias, snapdragons, and petunias, none of which seemed to grow as heartily as the weeds. After what seemed like hours of work, I never could see much progress and I’d complain to my dad. “Mitt,” he would reply, “the pursuit of the difficult makes men strong.” It seems now like an awfully grandiose response for such a pedestrian task. I complained about the weeding often enough that I heard his homily regularly. I’m sure that’s why it sticks with me to this day.

Fathers and sons. Great stuff for literature. Unfortunately, in this case, it seems Mitt is going personal only so that in a few paragraphs he can say how America needs the same ability to face tough challenges. We’ll get to that in a minute, but first a little more of his father’s story:

My father knew what it meant to pursue the difficult. He was born in Mexico, where his Mormon grandparents had moved to escape religious persecution.

For a book that’s about USA! USA! USA! this is willing to call what America did to the Mormons “persecution.” I agree, incidentally. But I think an apology is reasonable for persecution. And as we’ll see later in this chapter, Romney thinks Obama mentioning any legit problem is the same as him apologizing for it. So I don’t know, Romney is apologizing for and complaining about America? Maybe it’s too much to hope he has a coherent narrative.

Anyway, more family history. They were forced to move back to America, not because of anything America offered, but because they were afraid of “Mexican revolutionaries.” So his grandparents suffered hardships. They had to leave everything they had and live off the land. His father had to go to work and support the family at a young age, and never graduated from college.* Anyway, all that hard work by his parents and grandparents leads back to Romney weeding.

Three decades later, by the time I was weeding that Bloomfield Hills garden, my father had become a successful businessman. I knew he worried that because my brother, sisters, and I had grown up in a prosperous family, we wouldn’t understand the lessons of hard work. That’s why he put us to work shoveling snow, raking leaves, mowing the lawn, planting the garden, and of course, weeding–always reminding us that work would make us strong.

I know that I don’t know enough to actually say lesson not learned about hard work. But Mitt doesn’t mention hard work he’s actually done since his parents did what parents do. He doesn’t mention any hard work he willingly undertook on his own. I mean, I don’t expect him to have worked a decade on the line at American Motors, but he could show something to demonstrate he knows about hard work beyond he had to mow the lawn and weed the garden sometimes.

Anyway, a bit more about his father doing actual good things at American Motors. And then it isn’t just individuals who have to work hard, but also much more broadly. Then several paragraphs about Staples that feel like he wanted to write them, but didn’t know exactly where to put them because they don’t really fit. A competent editor would help. And then:

Today the United States faces daunting challenges, and I am similarly convinced that if we confront them and overcome them, we will remain a strong and leading nation. Just like individuals, companies, and human enterprises of every kind, nations that are undaunted by the challenges they face become stronger. Those that shrink from difficult tasks become weaker.

The examples are that we defeated the British to gain our independence, we won the Second World War, and the moon launch. He mentions Detroit switching to building planes during the war, without ever mentioning that these were top down orders from the government. He talks about how there were failures of American satellite launches, but we kept making them until they did work and “we became the first** nation on earth to put a man on the moon.” I couldn’t help thinking when I read that, that I can imagine how the Tea Party and today’s GOP would have reacted each moment along the way if they were around in the 1950’s and 1960’s.

And we’re to a section called Facing our Challenges Head-on. it starts by saying we thought we didn’t have any challenges during the Clinton administration. So we cut our military and that was a terrible thing. As if our military should have been as large or larger after the collapse of global communism than before it. Then without mentioning the Bush administration, he says:

In the first decade of the twenty-first century, our economy has suffered its worst crisis since the Great Depression. We have amassed an unprecedented amount of debt and liabilities, and added to that, the Obama administration plans trillion-dollar deficits every year. Russian belligerence is on the rise. China holds over $750 billion of U.S. obligations. Iran and North Korea threaten the world with unbridled nuclear ambition. Violent jihadists like those who attacked us on 9/11 plot our destruction. The consequences of failure to act in response to these perils is unthinkable.

I know it’s a bit unfair to criticize Romney for things that happened after the book was written. But most of those things are better because Obama acted. The depression isn’t nearly as bad as if we hadn’t had a stimulus. Iran and North Korea are whatever is the opposite of unbridled. Bridled, I guess. Iran still doesn’t have nuclear weapons, and North Korea’s missiles keep exploding into the sea. They’re both more isolated than under the Bush administration. And of course, Bin Laden is dead and much of his terror network destroyed, unlike the decade we wasted in Iraq. I don’t agree with everything the administration has done to get there, but it’s silly to say they didn’t act. All that said, he clearly is attacking a caricature of President Obama.

The section concludes with a plea for a strong military without ever explaining how we’re supposed to pay for it. The only remarkable paragraph is this one:

Does America make mistakes? Absolutely. We never fully understood the enormously complex political, economic, and military issues we faced in Vietnam, and we were wrong in our assessment of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction programs. But in every case throughout modern history in which America has exercised military power, we have acted with good intention–not to colonize, not to subjugate, never to oppress.

First off: what do you do when you do something wrong but with good intentions? Oh, that’s right, you apologize to the people you wronged. That’s like human decency 101. So the No Apology book makes yet another case that there are places where America should apologize.

Second, does intent really matter? I mean the fact that we didn’t take the land in Iraq as our own is worth noting. But the dead in Iraq and Viet Nam don’t care about the country’s intentions. Our actions matter, and are what we should be held accountable for, good and bad.

We’ve reached the end of this section. Tomorrow, strategies countries can use to get ahead, and why Obama sux at foreign policy. Stay tuned.

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Poll: Inslee 48%, McKenna 45%

by Darryl — Tuesday, 8/7/12, 9:16 am

A new poll by SurveyUSA on behalf of King 5 finds former WA-01 Congressman Jay Inslee leading state Attorney General Rob McKenna, 48% to 45% in the race to be Washington’s next governor. The poll surveyed 524 people likely to vote in the November general election (4.4 MOE), and was conducted from August 1 – 2 with calls made to landlines and cellphones.

A Monte Carlo analysis employing a million simulated elections, finds Inslee with 687,504 wins and McKenna with 301,583 wins. The analysis suggests that, in an election held now, Inslee would win with a 69.5% probability and McKenna would win with a 30.5% probability. Since Inslee’s has under a 95% probability of winning, the lead is not considered “statistically significant.”

Here is the distribution of election outcomes from the simulated elections:

SurveyUSA-Aug

Although crosstabs are not available yet for the gubernatorial results, SurveyUSA has released results for the presidential contest taken at the same time. The poll finds Obama leading Romney 54% to 37%. The partisan make-up was 36% Democrat, 27% Republican and 35% independent, pretty much matching the previous Elway poll (35% D, 27%R, 38% R). The composition is more Democratic-leaning than was found in the July SurveyUSA poll (33% D, 30% R, and 36% I).

This is the second consecutive poll showing Inslee with the lead. The previous poll was by Elway and showed Inslee with a 7% lead and an 87% probability winning an election held then. Days before that, a Survey USA poll found McKenna up by +1 and a 58% probability of winning an election then. The polling history shows a long term shift from a solid McKenna advantage to a weak Inslee advantage:

GenericCongress07Jul12-07Aug12Washington

Eleven months ago, McKenna was clearly the front-runner in the race. Then, after two solid early February polls, a couple of later February polls showed the race tied. Since then McKenna has usually held small leads in the polls. Until the last few weeks.

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Mitt Romney: No Apology: Intro? Chapter 0?

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 8/6/12, 4:40 pm

I’m on vacation this week, so to provide content in my absence, I’ll be reading/making fun of parts of Mitt Romney’s book the rest of the week (then if I’m up to it, the rest of the book when I’m home). For Monday, here are some general thoughts and the intro.

The book is called “No Apology Believe in America.” I feel like you can make apologies for the bad things America has done in the past — and continues to do — and still believe in it. You can say, people we enslaved, sorry about that, it won’t happen again. People we went to war with who maybe we shouldn’t have, including the native people we took the land from: our bad. Hey Mormons and others we’ve persecuted for your religion: We’ll try to do better next time.

In fact apologizing when we fail to live up to our ideals is something we do because we believe in those ideals. You know who doesn’t apologize when they fuck up? A goddamn sociopath! I may have stepped on your toe, but fuck you for having a toe in the first place: That’s how Mitt Romney’s book title reads to me. But perhaps that’s reading too much into a title.

So, we’ll start off with the intro. Or I think it’s an intro. On the front cover of the book it says, “FEATURING A NEW INTRODUCTION FOR THIS EDITION” and this is before chapter 1. But it’s called “Believe in America” and isn’t actually called an intro in either the table of contents or the chapter head where all of the other chapters are numbered. So maybe just call it chapter 0, or chapter “Believe in America.” It starts off with a story about going to Walmart.*

Sam Walton was all around me.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. Bear hug. OK, sorry it’s a metaphor. It’s also possibly the shittiest opening line I’ve read. Anyway, I swear I’m not going to quote every sentence, but here’s the next paragraph.

It was a few days before the Christmas of 2008. I was standing in the checkout line at Walmart, waiting to purchase the Tonka trucks and Buzz Lightyear action figures I has selected for my grandsons. As I looked around the store, I had to chuckle to myself. Somehow, that Walmart reminded me of Sam Walton himself. I’d never met the founder of Walmart, but I had read and heard a good deal about him over the years. People who knew him mentioned his attention to detail, his near maniacal passion about low prices, his plan to carry every single item a customer might want, and that he tended to be a spur-of-the-moment–almost impetuous–manager. I saw these very traits reflected in his store: low prices blazed** from signage, everything from tires to toothpaste were available for purchase, and, well, the store was not as organized and buttoned-down as those of other retailers I know. At target, for example, the aisles are wider and shelves are stocked and segregated like the Swiss might have done it. At Walmart, things look a bit more helter-skelter, more jumbled and maybe a little more entertaining. Yes, Walmart today is a reflection of its founder.

Wait. What about the Swiss? Is that a reference to cantons? Is that just casual racism that I don’t understand — the Swiss stock their aisles like this, but Americans stock their aisles like this. Is this some reference to his time in Europe? I know he spent a good deal of time in France, but has he ever been to Switzerland? I mean I know his money has, but has he? Target is an American store.

Anyway, then there’s a long discussion about how various companies reflect their CEO’s and founders. Microsoft and Apple reflect Gates and Jobs. Disney, reflects Walt Disney. Going to the Disney parks reflects on Walt years after he’s died. Between the Buzz Lightyear and the paragraph about how amazing Disneyland is, I think this intro might be sponsored by Disney.*** Anyway, lots of CEO’s are great. Oddly, he fails to mention that any of the employees at any of those companies might shine through when he’s visiting them. And then he transitions awkwardly from companies to all sorts of institutions, “schools, universities, charities, churches, even religions.” I’m not sure he needed to say “schools” and “universities” or “churches” and “religions.” But are those the only institutions? Please fill me in.

And it’s also true of nations. Nations are shaped by their founders, often for many generations and centuries after those founders are gone. The culture and character of America reflects the nature and convictions of the men and women who founded it.

Italics his. I’m actually going to go out on a limb and say America is better than it was at the founding. We don’t have slavery and we assume that women and people of all races and social classes are fully human. While we still have horrible wars, we’re more or less done with the stealing land phase of the country. I’m looking out my window right now and people are passing on cars and bikes and on foot. Men and women, and people of all races. This city in a place where the founding generation barely knew existed with technology they couldn’t have imagined is really better than they would have dreamed for it. Hell, just the fact that Romney felt he had to tack on “and women” is something the founding generation wouldn’t have thought to do.

Don’t get me wrong, we got a great legacy from this country’s founders. I can’t imagine anyone in the 1770’s and 1780’s anywhere in the world who would have been better to start the country. The notions of fundamental freedom they left us are important. But we also have a more difficult legacy because they were flawed people from a flawed time. This intro doesn’t deal with that beyond one aside in one sentence. “That first choice of freedom by the Founders–incomplete and only perfected by Lincoln four score years later–has made all the difference.” Yes, he thinks Lincoln solved all of our problems in 1856.

So that was cool until the 2006 and 2008 elections. Without naming names, the people who won those elections hate freedom. Then a long quote by Tony Blair, who apparently loves America more than Nancy Pelosi?

And we’re now to sub chapters (sub intros?) that start “Believing in America Means…” First Believing in America Means Believing in Freedom. He tells the story of his mother’s doctor who “hid in the coal bin of a ship that made it to America.” Since he’s a professional and white (a Russian Jew) Mitt doesn’t demand that he self deport. Instead he’s an example of freedom. And also Joe The Plumber was right. Also, Democrats passing laws they promised to pass is anti-freedom. Then he talks about checks and balances, never realizing that getting legislation through those checks might mean the laws they pass are compatible with freedom.

On to sub chapter (sub intro?) Believing in America Means Believing in Free Enterprise. You’ll be shocked to learn that there’s no mention of how large economic players use their power to distort free enterprise, despite that being something the founders knew quite well (hence all that East India Company tea in Boston Harbor). Nor is there any discussion of corporate responsibility generally to the community or to the state or to America. Freedom is letting corporations do whatever they want. Letting corporations devastate communities only increases freedom is what I get from his lack of addressing those things.

So what does he talk about? Why how Obama hates free enterprise. This feels a bit like the gentleman with a silk hat. Obama, you see, is a secret socialist. Then he says because in North Korea unlike South Korea, “citizens are nearly**** starved so that government and the military can be amply fed” any government jobs are inherently bad.

So, what are the awful things that are making us like North Korea? Using TARP money “for bailouts” instead of for saving the financial system, the fact that some unnamed trade talks haven’t been completed, health care, investing in green energy, “the rule of law was ignored in order to reward the auto workers union at General Motors” meaning that it’s different than the bailouts thing, the fact that there are boards and commissions in government, and that business people are being demonized in speeches. You know, socialism. He quotes a friend thinking about moving to France because at least those socialists have “really good food” because America love it or leave it, amirite? Also, if you’re privileged enough that you can seriously consider moving to France, you can get great food in America.

Then he quotes Thatcher, and I suddenly wonder if he meant to call it “Believe in the United Kingdom.” Then he half complains that rich people give “a lot more money” to Democrats than Republicans. I can’t write the infinity question marks to respond to that, so I’ll just write this instead (?*∞). Finally, he gets our history vis-a-vis Europe with the size government exactly backwards, claiming that our system was no government in the market place and not that we rebelled against that in England. So instead of the American System that brought us prosperity versus the rest of the world, he wants to go back to how economics was in England when we rebelled.

And so we’re on to Believing in America Means Believing in Opportunity. Sure, but guess if he points out that some people in America have less opportunity because of the circumstances of their birth? If you guessed “no” give yourself 0 points because that question is too easy. Maybe he would have mentioned it if he wrote the book before Lincoln solved our only problem in 1856.

Now in fairness to Romney, he does mention that at some point in the past there wasn’t equal opportunity, what with slavery and Jim Crow. Also, policies that harmed the Native Americans are mentioned vaguely. But he doesn’t seem to understand that there’s a legacy of those things in the here and now. He mentions rising above the situation of your birth, and that’s great for individuals. But he doesn’t seem to see that that situation of birth can be a problem if anyone can rise above it. The rest of the chapter is dedicated to how the Democrats are ruining everything, so:

Government can promote opportunity or it can crush it. Laws and regulations that govern business practices are essential for markets to function efficiently, fostering economic opportunity.

And you’ll be surprised to learn that elites (people wanting a level playing field are the definition of elites, no doy) who were elected in 2008***** are destroying free enterprise. He lies about tax increases on business and complains that financial regulations, without mentioning those regulations, are “not only depressing opportunity in that sector but also making it more difficult for businesses and entrepreneurs in other sectors to obtain necessary financing.” You’ll be shocked to your core to learn that he doesn’t mention that people weren’t lending before those regulations were enacted.

And now we’re to the penultimate subintro: Believing in America Means Providing for a Better Future. It starts off with a bold declaration that he completely fails to live up to. “I know how John Adams felt.” It goes on to talk about the hardships he suffered being away from his wife and children during the American Revolution to make this country what it would become. And yes, that was tough. But Romney fails to show how he has sacrificed anything at all to provide a better future.

Piggybacking onto Adams’ hardships wasn’t enough though. He then praises the sacrifice of the military. And God bless them, but they aren’t Romney. He doesn’t get to reflect their glory just because he writes a few paragraphs about them. Then he tries to tie them together, “In ways as different as our many occupations, we all make sacrifices for our children, and for the generations of descendents to come.” This would probably be better if he mentioned any of the sacrifices he has made. But he can’t because he has lived a life so privileged that he hasn’t really ever had to make sacrifices.

The rest of the subintro is about how Democrats are ruining everything. Borrowing is bad, blah blah teachers unions. You know who hates children? Teachers! Clearly.

And the final subintro is called The Choice for America. It’s more or less the same arguments he’s already made. The founders all agreed that we should have equal opportunity but that same “liberal elite” want equal outcomes. Again, he doesn’t mention how financial regulation or moderate tax increase on the wealthy or regulations would lead to equal outcomes: it’s just a given.
And finally (finally!) the last couple paragraphs.

They are also highly suspicious of free enterprise because it offers unparalleled opportunity for individual success and reward, and thus enables inequality. They endeavor to grow the scale of government, to empower it to guide the economy and make better choices for the people. While few of the liberal elite would ever openly advocate for the diminution of freedom and opportunity, that is the inevitable product of their policies.

OK player. A tax rate well below what it was for decades in the postwar period and regulation that you don’t like are going to destroy freedom and opportunity. This is logical.

These fellow Americans fail to appreciate the power of the choice that was made by the Founders—theirs was the creed of the pioneer, the innovator, the striver who expects no guarantee of success but asks only to live and work in freedom. This liberating inventing, creating, independent, current now runs from coast to coast. It has produced not only the renown, like Bill Gates. It also accounts for the men and women of every occupation who strive, who explore, who go beyond what is expected of them to reach for breakthrough and accomplishment. It is the engineer who tries to get one more mile from a gallon of gasoline, the chef who creates new recipes, the salesperson who goes off-script to make the sale, the educator who works with a child after school, the programmer who can’t rest until she has eliminated every excess line of code, the entrepreneur who starts his own business, the kid who launches a commercial site on the Internet, the person who edits an entry on Wikipedia, the farmer who plants a new variety—the list is endless. The pursuit of achievement, of discovery, of greatness, is what has made America the powerhouse of the world. And it has made us happy as well. Smother this spirit with the weight of government and America ceases to be America. That is what Washington is doing, and we must not allow it. Washington believes in itself. The American people believe in America.

Holy balls was that a long paragraph. And yet, I’m guessing the list isn’t as endless as Mitt thinks if editing Wikipedia part of what he mentions. That feels like he’s padding it. But does he not understand that that list can apply to pretty much every country? My God, if the marginal tax rate goes up, nobody will teach children or edit Wikipedia! Also, that engineer is probably striving to meet government standards to increase efficiency, so government regulation didn’t diminish that. Look, the entrepreneurial spirit is great. But whatever Mitt Romney’s straw man attacks mean for America, it isn’t what Democrats are doing to the country.

OK, this chapter took a lot longer to write than I’d thought when I started it (the only other thing I’ve tried was Lou Guzzo’s gigantic font, tiny chapter nonsense, and I just breezed through those). And this post is too long. So I think I’m going to break up the chapters for the rest of the book. The beginning of chapter 1 tomorrow.

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Open Thread 6/8

by Darryl — Monday, 8/6/12, 8:59 am

Curiosity didn’t kill the Rover. But controversy erupts.

Tomorrow is election day. Having difficulties completing your ballot? Here is the Progressive Voter’s Guide from Fuse.

Actual Headline: “Northwest ties to Hiroshima remembered on A-bomb anniversary”. Ummm…are we supposed to celebrate or something????

Sour note: Sikh Temple shooter was “a ‘frustrated neo-Nazi’ who led a racist white supremacist band.”

The good news for Mitt is that he “probably earned more than $50 million, and possibly as much as $60 million from the Italian directory sale of Seat Pagine Gialle SpA…. The deal turned into one of the biggest windfalls of his tenure.” The bad news: Mitt can’t really go to Italy anymore.

More science for the nutbaggers to deny: The impact of ocean acidification on shellfish.

Saving Town Hall: Stanwood edition

Saving Town Hall: Darrington edition

Romney outraises Obama for third month in a row.

WA-10 Republican candidate Stan Flemming’s “atypical loan pushed the boundaries of federal law.”

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 8/5/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was won by Deathfrogg. It was Norwich, England.

This week’s is another random location somewhere on earth. Good luck!

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 8/5/12, 7:00 am

Judges 10:4
He had thirty sons, who rode thirty donkeys.

Discuss.

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Electoral College scenarios

by Darryl — Saturday, 8/4/12, 11:05 pm

Folks interested in examining Electoral College scenarios may find Michael Tomasky’s Daily Beast article of interest:

So if Pennsylvania is off the boards, let’s look around. Imagine it’s election night, say 10:45 east coast time. Four eastern states haven’t been called yet: Ohio (18), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), and Florida (29). Also, in some Western states, the polls haven’t closed, or the races are too tight to project just yet—Colorado and Nevada, say. Arizona has just been called for Romney. At this point, Romney actually leads, 188 to 182. In this scenario I’m assuming Obama has won Iowa (6), which is admittedly close but where his lead has been stable at three or four points, and New Hampshire (4), where Obama has a similar fairly small but stable lead, and Michigan (16), where the gap appears to be opening up a little.

So it’s a six-vote Romney edge. They’re feeling great up in Boston. Especially with the big Eastern four still up in the air. Right?

Not really. Let’s look at these West Coast states….

Read the rest here.

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The Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 8/3/12, 11:59 pm

Mark Fiore: Bishops versus Nuns!

Pap: The psychology of Republican voters.

SlateTV: Contraception mandate is “like 9/11, Pearl Harbor.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Illinois edition:

Willard:

  • Jon on Mitt’s trip to London (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Mitt Romney’s tax return hunt.
  • Obama on Mitt Romney’s tax hike on the middle class.
  • Young Turks: Mitt Romney, blaming job losses on President is “poppycock”.
  • Behind the dressage: Rafalca.
  • Sam Seder: Universal Healthcare is great…for everyone but america!
  • Stephanie Cutter: Mitt’s tax hike!
  • Ann Telnaes: Romney’s trip continues.
  • Mitt Romney: Jobs creator!
  • Young Turks: Why aren’t Birfers demanding to seem Romney’s tax returns?
  • Pap: Mushroom Cloud Mitt should frighten us all.
  • SlateTV: Mitt’s bad trip to Poland.
  • Mitt won’t answer for his middle class tax hike
  • Sam Seder: Romney spokesperson to reporters, “Kiss my ass.”
  • Young Turks: Harry Reid hits Romney hard over (possibly) not paying tax.
  • Maddow: Romney demanded past opponents release tax returns.
  • Romney Spokesperson to Press: “Kiss my ass. This is a Holy site for the Polish people. Show some respect.”
  • Zina Saunders: Romney, Job Creator.
  • One more “unwelcomed moment” ends Mitt’s trip
  • Romney: Russia is our number one adversary?!?
  • Sam Seder: Harry is right to question Mitt’s tax returns
  • Maddow: Romney caught in a lie on tax return demands.
  • SlateTV: Mitt v. Harry.
  • Jon: The gaffes continue in Israel and Poland (via Crooks and Liars).

Stephen ‘salutes’ Sen. McConnell for attempting to stop Obamacare’s contraceptive mandate (via Crooks and Liars).

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, California edition.

Analysis: How do Obama and Romney stack up on foreign policy? (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Music video: David LaMotte sings “Hope”.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Minnesota edition.

Food Politics:

  • Chick-Fil-A sets the record straight.
  • Jon: Chicken sandwich activism (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • The official Chick-fil-A appreciation day video:
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Chick fil-A vs. the Gays
  • Rahm Emanuel welcomes you to Chicago.
  • Sam Seder: hate a gay, eat a processed chicken.
  • KFC loves gays!
  • Stephen: Who Will Protect The Vegetables? (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Pap: Republican hate peddlers divide America.

Sam Seder and Sarah Silverman catch up on movies and politics.

Jon: Old Man Fight—Cheney vs McCain (via Crooks and Liars).

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Delaware edition.

Ann Telnaes: Justice Scalia on money in politics.

That Nutjob from Iowa:

  • Rep. Steve King gets in touch with his inner Birfer (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Doggies against Rep. Steve King (via Crooks and Liars).

White House: West Wing Week.

SlateTV: Tea-time in Texas.

Alyona: Is defense spending really our top priority?

Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Connecticut edition:

Sam Seder: Dems add gay marriage to their platform.

Stephen sacrifices a baby to appease Grover Norquist (via Crooks and Liars).

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Mallahan Wouldn’t Have Done That

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 8/3/12, 6:42 pm

While I was never as much of a supporter of Mike McGinn as, say, the folks at The Stranger, I volunteered with his campaign and was happy with the result. While voting for him didn’t stop the tunnel, I think he’s been good on more issues the city faces than he’s been bad, but there have been plenty of times when he fucked up. So sometimes when he fucks up people will ask me if I regret supporting him. But no I don’t. I honestly can’t think of a single time where having corporate anti-choice conservative Joe Mallahan as mayor would have been better for the city. And I can only count a few times where Nickles might have been better.

And McGinn has handled most of the things a mayor is supposed to handle in the way people want. The roads were clear pretty soon after the snow storm.* Crime has generally been down during his term, although is going up recently, and it’s tough to know how much you can attribute that to any specific policy or set of policies. He helped get more money for the Families and Education levy (you can argue how much is him and how much is, say the council and education activists, but replace him with Mallahan and I don’t see how it doubles). And now he’s helped make sure the garbage strike ended quickly in a way that the union appreciated [h/t to Howie on Facebook].

“Behind the scenes, we’re being told that was really instrumental in getting Waste Management back to the table. That’s what pushed them,” said Heather Weiner, political action director for Washington Teamsters Joint Council 28. Local 117, which represents the 153 recycle drivers who went on strike July 25, overwhelmingly approved a new six-year contract with the company Thursday morning.

Weiner said the calculus of the strike changed when the mayors of Federal Way and Seattle said they intended to hold the company accountable for missed collections.

The cities’ contracts with Waste Management allow them to impose fines for every service missed. Those fines could have amounted to $1.25 million a day in Seattle alone. When the mayors made clear their intention to collect those fines, the strike became more expensive for the company, Weiner said.

…

“We’ve had our differences with the mayor, but he stood up and did what he thought was best for the city,” [Weiner] said. “We’re very grateful that he decided to be public about enforcing the contract. ”

Within hours of the press conference, she said, the company was back at the negotiating table.

Obviously, you can’t know for sure how another person would have handled the situation. But it’s hard to see Mallahan not blaming the union. It’s hard to see this being resolved quickly and efficiently. It’s hard to see Waste Management feeling the same pressure to go back to the table if he was mayor. So I don’t know if I’ll vote for McGinn again. But I don’t regret voting for him last time.

[Read more…]

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Downtown Target

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 8/3/12, 7:11 am

I’m going on vacation next week, so I thought I’d check out the new downtown Target and see if there are any shorts or a bathing suit. Here’s my review. Like when I went to the Rack a few months ago (and like when I do all my clothing shopping) I looked for made in America. Unlike the Rack, I was able to find a few. It was a very few; most of the stuff was made elsewhere.

I found one nice pair of shorts that were the right size. No shirts that I saw were made in America.

The layout was fine there were signs to where everything was. It was well lit, and there was staff around.

I popped down to the grocery, and it looks fine. But it’s a block away from Pike Place and from the IGA, so I’m not sure when I’d pop in.

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Is Romney running racist ads?

by Darryl — Thursday, 8/2/12, 4:04 pm

Over at Slog, Paul Constant posts two new political ads, one from the Romney camp and one from Obama’s camp.

Let’s try an experiment.

Each ad has brief footage of President Obama. Can you tell which ad is attacking Obama just by looking at a screen capture of him?

Ad one:
ad1cropped

Ad two:
ad2cropped

Now, I realize that it is common to alter the shade and focus, and add effects to political hit ads. Color is typically washed out to display the opponent as less appealing, generic and gray. This can be seen in Obama’s ads where Romney ends up with a green-blue hue and raster lines running through the scene, giving an Orwellian feel (with, perhaps, a touch of Max Headroom).

How do the Romney people make Obama less appealing? They render him out of focus and darken his face.

Huh…why do you think they did that?

Here are the ads:

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Open Thread 8/2

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 8/2/12, 8:03 am

– No scab drivers as Waste Management and the union reach an agreement.

– Finally, women have access to preventive care. Now let’s get the word out

– Kirby Wilbur thinks that because Rick Steves has taken positions on things that will be on the ballot, he can’t do a bland, nonpartisan PSA on voting in the top two primary.

– Steve King is awful and kind of stupid [h/t].

– It will not be like this forever. Progress is being made. At times the pace seems glacial when we’d rather it poured forth like the Niagara, but attitudes are changing.

– “Domestic violence protections for all women shouldn’t be a Democratic or a Republican issue”

– This represents the kind of country I want to live in!

– Crisis Diversion Center to open Monday.

– Get your tickets to the Liberty Ball.

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