The only winged insects you may eat are locusts, grasshoppers, and crickets. All other winged insects that crawl are too disgusting for you to eat.
I’ll be live blogging the results. Because I’m blogging here at Horse’s Ass, I’ll probably do it as a mocking of the typical media style. So if a result doesn’t have a link, it’s probably just something I made up. Polls close at 7:00 SC time, but since I and most HA readers are on the West Coast, polls close at 4:00. All updates will be in West Coast time. It should be noted that I don’t have a TV box, so this might skew toward Internet results.
Update 4:08: Newt Gingrich needed a win with the GOP’s critical jackass community. It looks like the jackasses pulled through. Still no actual results, but at the very least the jackasses who were willing to talk to exit pollsters liked the way he didn’t ever actually answer questions at the debates and the way he hates gay people. In addition to jackasses, douches, douche bags, and assholes have all broken strongly for Gingrich. Can he unite these disparate groups of Republicans going forward? We’ll see in Florida.
Update 4:17: Given how well Newt did right after revelations about an affair were brought to light, I think the other candidates should seriously consider leaving their wives for younger staffers. Does Santorum have time leave his wife before the Florida primary?
Update 4:24: Still no results, but CBS news has actual exit poll results.
Update 4:31: OK, real results, y’all. So far even though TPM is predicting Newt is the winner, Mittens has the most votes so far:
Update 4:34: The SC Election Commission has even fewer numbers in and has Romney at 47%. You guys, either you shouldn’t trust small numbers from just a few precincts that just start to trickle in, or the exit polls are wrong. I have no way of knowing.
Update 4:54: An hour after the polls close, TPM has Newtron in the lead over Will.I.Ard:
Update 4:58: Among white voters, so far the results are:
I guess they haven’t counted Nikki Haley’s vote yet.
Update 5:03: Romney’s making a speech. He doesn’t like Obama.
Update 5:05: I think Romney thinks Gingrich is too much like Obama. He’s apparently made “a frontal assault on free enterprise” whatever the fuck that means.
Update 5:06: I won’t have the rest of the speech since NPR has cut it off.
Update 5:12: From Michael in the comments on Willard’s speech:
Romney’s clearly mistaken “free enterprise” with half the women in DC.
Update 5:18: With 94,442 votes in, Newtle is still up over Mittenz:
Update 5:24: Joe Wilson is on NPR. He just said, “the health care takeover will destroy jobs.” You lie! It’s not a health care takeover and it won’t destroy jobs.
Update 5:37: All the news sources I see say Newter has won 17 delegates. I assume that’s all of them. Does anyone know if there are any delegates up for grabs?
Update 5:45: How many of the 2,353 so far votes for Herman Cain are for Cain and how many for Colbert? I’m going out on a limb and saying all of them are for Colbert. Every single one.
Update 5:52: Apparently Santorum is speaking and he’s still in it, but NPR isn’t breaking to it like they did for part of Romney’s. Here’s my guess: “I hate gay people. Boo women. Race baiting.”
Update 6:01: Looks like “Says You!” on KUOW.
Update 6:07: With 355,360 votes in Oven Mitt is still down to Out with the Old In With The Newt:
Herman “Colbert” Cain…3,477……..1.0%
Update 6:13: I think we can all agree if you want to win an early primary it helps to have been an elected official from a neighboring state. So that bodes well for Newt in Florida.
Update 6:19: Does shutting down the government because you have a sad about seating assignments help you win a primary contest 12 years later? Answer: Maybe?!?
Update 6:22: I just found the NPR live feed and they said that Gingrich won 23 of 25 delegates. I assume Romney won the other 2, but I can’t find it anywhere.
Update 6:25: Newt Gingrich isn’t coming out to speak yet. 3 possibilities for why: 1) He knows coverage will stop after he’s done so he’s dragging it out. 2) He was surprised by the size of the victory and is rewriting his speech. 3) He’s having sex with future wife #4.
Update 6:27: OK, Newt is on stage now.
Update 6:32: Elites are trying to make us stop being American. What?
Update 6:34: The other candidates reflect the openness of the American system. Yes, 3 wealthy white Christian men show how anyone can run for president?
Update 6:35: Newt attacks New York and Washington. People chant “USA USA USA.” Um, New York and Washington are part of the USA.
Update 6:38: He’s making a TelePrompTer joke (as he’s reading off his script).
Update 6:39: Saul Alinsky. What?
Update 6:41: Now he’s talking about “anti-religious bigotry” as he defines opposition to Christian supremacy.
Update 6:44: Oh good, we’re back on food stamp president. Without food stamps a lot of the children of the working poor will starve, asshole. And make them janitors isn’t a fucking answer.
Update 6:45: The NPR feed just cut out the speech. Phew, now I can listen to E.J. Dionne and Matt Continetti. Thanks? NPR.
Update 7:04: OK, most of the votes are in, so this is the last update, probably:
I assume this means Newt has the lead in the delegate count (even assuming you can make up some guess for the Iowa delegate count). Hmm, I was more serious than I thought I’d be and left a lot of jokes on the table. Surprising given how it wasn’t even that close.
Now on to Florida.
Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
White House: West Wing Week.
That political whorehouse that is Fox News is Worst Person in the World.
Congressman Lamar Smith (R-Texas) is Worst Person in the World.
Sam Seder: Arizona pretends Mexicans don’t exist.
Obama: Lunar New Year Message.
Olbermann with Nancy Pelosi: Reflections on election 2012.
Stephen does retired justice John Paul Stevens.
Thom with Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
The G.O.P. Primary Asylum:
Sam Seder: A million signatures in Wisconsin.
Young Turks: Obama’s “Al Green” performance is a hit.
Alyona: Citizens United, two years later.
Ann Telnaes: Stephen Colbert’s truthiness.
Thom with some Good, Bad and Very, Very Ugly.
Running for President of the United States of South Carolina:
Ed with some Republican Psychotalk
Newt Gingrich sneers his way to Worst Person in the World.
Brave New Foundation: President Eisenhower warned us about Military-Industrial Complex and today’s war profiteers.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
About an hour ago, PSE restored power to our house out here in Fairwood. We lost power at around 7:45am yesterday and our internet and cell phone service became unavailable at 2pm. This would have been a miserable experience for us had my father-in-law not set us up with a homemade generator he built this summer. He does this as a retirement hobby/business and I totally owe him some incoming traffic (at least) as it was so nice to be able to use our fridge, microwave, furnace, and even the TV while many of our neighbors headed out to hotels for the night.
I really dig the initiative by mayors across the country to support marriage equality (h/t). It pushes the issue forward and while it’s mostly symbolism, that’s all that they can do. Still, when I checked out the Washington entries on the list, I was a little disappointed.
Timothy Leavitt – Vancouver, WA
Mike McGinn – Seattle, WA
Marilyn Strickland – Tacoma, WA
Ava Frisinger – Issaquah, WA
That’s it. McGinn and Strickland are gimmies. I’m glad they signed on but it would be much more surprising if they didn’t than if they did, just based on the cities. But Everett isn’t on the list. No Olympia or Bellingham. No Bellevue and only one suburban King County city. No Spokane or any Eastern Washington cities.
Of course, gay people (and their allies) live outside those 4 cities. They live in Eastern Washington. I don’t know what the outreach there was to the mayors not on the list, but there’s more work to do.
In case you haven’t heard, SOPA and PIPA are dead:
SOPA sponsor Lamar Smith, the Republican chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, said his committee won’t take up the bill as planned next month — and that he’d have to “wait until there is wider agreement on a solution” before moving forward.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, meanwhile, said he was calling off a cloture vote on PIPA he’d scheduled for Tuesday.
…or at least delayed:
Reid tried to put on a brave face, saying in a statement that he was optimistic that progress could be made in the coming weeks.
Memo to Harry Reid:
What the fuck?!?
– Are y’all digging yourselves out of the snow? I’m not generally a fan of Art Thiel, but I think this piece on Seattle snow driving is mostly right. But there are still some idiots who don’t know how to drive in snow.
– 6 years of tax returns seems like a plan for Mitt.
– Looks like we’re going to have a plastic bag ban for really. Get your canvas bags by July.
– This was my favorite SOPA protest (no offense to us).
– Dana Milbank gets it wrong on abortion and when the great recession started.
– Emmett has a cautionary tale about the Hotel Olympia.
It’s been about a week and we finally have a handful of state head-to-head polls to look at:
In New Jersey, Obama’s +10% over Romney isn’t a big surprise.
There are three more interesting swing states. In Arizona, Romney has a +6% lead over Obama. In Florida, Obama was slightly down in the previous poll and now has the slightest +1% lead. And in Ohio, Obama goes from being -1% in the previous poll to a +2% lead over Romney in the most current poll.
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney by 294 to 244 electoral votes, and with a 78.5% probability of winning an election held now.
With these new polls, the Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated elections gives Obama 77,516 wins to Romney’s 22,484 wins (and he gets the 1,386 ties). Obama receives (on average) 290 to Romney’s 248 electoral votes. Obama has a 77.5% probability of winning and Romney has a 22.5% probability of winning.
|77.5% probability of winning||22.5% probability of winning|
|Mean of 290 electoral votes||Mean of 248 electoral votes|
You might say that today was a really, really lousy day for Mitt Romney. First, he is dramatically slipping in the SC primary polls to Newt Gingrich. For the past week, Romney has led Gingrich in every SC primary poll. Just yesterday Romney was leading Gingrich 33% to 23% in a CNN/Time poll—the only poll for that race. Today there are five new polls in the race: A Marist poll for NBC has Romney leading 34% to 24%; a Politico poll has Romney up 37% to 30%; Rasmussen has Gingrich leading 33% to 31%; an Insider Advantage poll has Gingrich leading 32% to 29%, and a PPP poll has the Newtster leading the Mittster by a whopping 34% to 28%.
You might say the SC primary is very suddenly a toss-up. (I know the coverage of it has sometimes made me want to toss-up, but that’s different.)
Mitt also had a bad day because Rick Perry surrendered (“you won’t have Rick Perry to kick around anymore”) and Perry endorsed the Newster.
Finally…We learned today that Mitt really, probably, kind-a lost the Iowa caucus to Rick Santorum. The blow is only psychological, as there were no delegates directly at stake. Still….
What saved the day for Romney, however, is the ABC News with Marianne Gingrich (the second of Newt’s wife collection) in which she claims Newt asked her to make theirs an open marriage:
She said when Gingrich admitted to a six-year affair with a Congressional aide, he asked her if she would share him with the other woman, Callista, who is now married to Gingrich.
“And I just stared at him and he said, ‘Callista doesn’t care what I do,'” Marianne Gingrich told ABC News. “He wanted an open marriage and I refused.”
With that, we enter the last debate before a pivotal SC primary. Will Mitt finally debate like he is fighting for his life? Will Newt go for more kills against Mitt? Will Ron Paul get to say anything? Will Santorum go after Mitt, the rich boy with a sense of entitlement, or will he go after Newt the fornicator?
Folks…it’s Popcorn Time!
I’ll be providing comments as I can. However, my power is flickering and my UPS is dead. Oh, joy.
Senate Bill 6239 would legalize same-sex marriage in Washngton state. The bill was recently introduced with 23 sponsoring senators. It needs 25 votes to pass.
Today it just got one vote closer to passage (via KIRO):
Sen. Jim Kastama of Puyallup announced his decision Thursday, becoming the 24th senator to commit their vote to the measure. The chamber now needs to just one more yes vote from a group of a half-dozen uncommitted votes that remain.
Earlier today, the Washington State Catholic Conference came out against same-sex marriage. The reason they give is laughable:
This same law also prohibits marriage to close-blood relations, a clear indication that the definition of marriage is related to bringing children into the world and the continuation of the human race. The legislation to redefine marriage, therefore, is not in the public interest.
What the bill actually does (see Section 3) is modify the incest laws by striking phrases like “husband and wife” and replacing them with “spouses”. For example:
When the ((
husband and wife)) spouses are nearer of kin to each other than second cousins…
It is unlawful for any ((
man to marry his father’s sister, mother’s sister, daughter, sister, son’s daughter, daughter’s daughter, brother’s daughter or sister’s daughter; it is unlawful for any woman to marry her father’s brother, mother’s brother, son, brother, son’s son, daughter’s son, brother’s son or sister’s son)) person to marry his or her sibling, child, grandchild, aunt, uncle, niece, or nephew.
Update: I misinterpreted what was being claimed, and have marked up what follows:
Clearly, what the bill does is
just the opposite of what the Washington State Catholic Conference claims. Rather than adding proscriptions against incest that may result in inbred children, the law modifies to modify extant incest laws to make them apply to same-sex marriages as well.
But do the laws on the book actually refer only to relationships that are for procreation? I don’t think so. The incest laws apply equally to incestuous marriages in which one partner is sterile or in which the female partner is of a post-reproductive age. If a brother and sister marriage is a “moral shock,” is it any less of a shock to learn that he had had a vasectomy?
What about a post-menopausal mother marrying her son or grandson? Remember the priest in Harold and Maude? “I would be remiss in my duty, if I did not tell you, that the idea of… intercourse – your firm, young… body… comingling with… withered flesh… sagging breasts… flabby b-b-buttocks… makes me want… to vomit.”
Shocking? Yes. About procreation? no.
Clearly, there is something about our laws against incest that goes beyond mere inbreeding avoidance.
What a bunch of
lying uptight assholes!
This David Brooks column has been making the rounds for this thing he said.
I sometimes wonder if the Republican Party has become the receding roar of white America as it pines for a way of life that will never return.
I don’t know when he started covering politics, but his sentiment would have been true since at least Nixon and probably further back. This, as I say, has been well covered in the blogs the last few days. But what struck me most when reading it was this:
The other pleasure of covering campaigns is getting to play American Idol judge, evaluating the political performances.
Look, I’m someone who tries to make politics fun. And on the one hand, if that’s what you like about politics, well fine.
But on the other hand, go fuck yourself David Brooks. How in God’s name can anyone find pleasure in judging — what — the theater aspects of stump speeches and town halls? To actually get pleasure from complaining that George HW Bush looked at his watch, or that Al Gore sighed, or that Kerry was stilted, or Hillary Clinton whatever the press made up about her crying before NH?
That’s a pleasure? Pleasure. Not a chore. Not something you feel you should do to give voters an insight into whatever made up bullshit about why that’s more important to cover than actual issues. A pleasure. Like good sex or good food? The most awful, the shittiest what-the-fuck-are-they-doingist part of political coverage brings David Brooks pleasure? I guess what I’m saying is it’s bad enough when journalists do this sort of coverage, but can’t they at least pretend it’s their job, and not say how fun it is.
I mean I always thought it was laziness: It’s easier to say this or that candidate talks funny (or elegantly) than to report on what foreign policy will look like if they’re president. But to say it’s pleasurable is even worse.
It was one hell of a day to be in purgatory. Everything closed in western Washington, there was white stuff everywhere, the National Organization for Marriage threatens to primary some of Washington’s GOP Senators, the Obama administration announced they would reject the Keystone pipeline (for now), the House teabaggers are up to their bullshit again, the DCCC added Washington’s 1st and 10th CD to their list of 18 Red-to-Blue program, Kodak files for bankrupcy, and one of Newt’s ex-wives taped an interview that will be damning.
And all that time, HA was black.
Was it worth it?
Members of the Senate are rushing for the exits in the wake of the Internet’s unprecedented protest of the Protect IP Act (PIPA). At least 13 members of the upper chamber announced their opposition on Wednesday. In a particularly severe blow for Hollywood, at least five of the newly-opposed Senators were previously co-sponsors of the Protect IP Act. (Update: since we ran this story, the tally is up to 18 Senators, of which seven are former co-sponsors. See below.)
And let’s hope we never have to do that again!
A new poll has been released in the Washington state gubernatorial contest. The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for KING 5, shows AG Rob McKenna (R) leading Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) 46% to 43%, with 11% undecided. The poll surveyed 617 registered voters and has a margin of error of 4%.
A Monte Carlo analysis simulating a million elections using these poll results gives the election to McKenna 707,667 times and Inslee 281,715 times. These results suggest that, if the election was held now, McKenna would have a 71.5% probability of winning and Inslee would win with a 28.5% probability. Here is the distribution of electoral votes from the simulated elections [FAQ]:
Today’s result makes the fourth consecutive poll that finds McKenna in the lead. A Survey USA poll taken from Nov. 21 to 23 of last year showed McKenna leading Inslee 44% to 38%. (I completely missed that poll until it was old news, so I have no post for it, but the Monte Carlo analysis gives McKenna an 88% chance of winning to Inslee’s 12% chance, had an election be held then.)
An October Washington Poll poll gave McKenna a 43.9% to 38.4% lead. Before that, a September Survey USA poll had McKenna up 44% to 38%. In fact, we have to go all the way back to a June Survey USA poll to find Inslee leading McKenna, 47% to 44%.
At this point it is undeniable that McKenna is the frontrunner. It isn’t inevitable that we will have a Republican Governor next year, but that’s what the polls have been saying for almost half a year….
The most recent analysis for the Inslee—McKenna race can be found here.
It’s Tuesday, and that means it’s time for another evening of politics under the influence. Lot-o-stuff to discuss…the fourth consecutive poll showing McKenna leading Inslee (an analysis is forthcoming), the Walker recall signature drive, the Washington legislative session, the big storm tomorrow—either snow storm or internet brown-out shit-storm, your choice—and, of course, the Republican reality show….
Please join us this evening at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but a few folks show up earlier for a quiet dinner.
And now a word from our sponsor:
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On NPR’s Morning Edition today, there was piece about the recall drive against Gov. Scott Walker (R-W
AI). Today was the deadline for turning in at least 540,208 signatures to force a recall election. There was speculation that a much larger number would be turned in. In response, Walker said (my emphasis):
“The optimist in me looks at that and says, ‘the overwhelming majority of the people in the state chose not to sign that and I earned the trust of the majority the last time.’ My hope is I will earn their trust again.”
This afternoon the Wisconsin State Journal writes:
Democrats and organizers filed petitions Tuesday afternoon with more than a million signatures as they sought to force a recall election against Gov. Scott Walker – a massive number that seems to cement a historic recall election against him for later this year.
Holy shit! Over a million signatures?!?
In the 2010 election, Walker got 1,128,941 votes, and his opponent, Mayor Tom Barrett (D-Milwaukee), got 1,004,303 votes. That is a total of 2,133,244 votes. So, the signature drive may well have collected signatures from a majority of the voters in the state.
Let’s put this into context. Suppose there are exactly one million and one signatures. Then it means the signatures amounted to 46.9% of the 2010 vote total. That’s huge.
In the 2003 California gubernatorial recall drive, organizers turned in 1.6 million signatures (of which 1,356,408 were valid). There were 7,738,821 votes in that election. So, that recall drive turned in signatures that amounted to only 20.7% of the 2003 vote total.
There are differences between Wisconsin and California in the recall process. Wisconsin requires a minimum of 25% of the number of votes cast in the previous election to California’s 12%. And there are different laws about signing petitions. Still, 46.9% is pretty fucking impressive.
In addition to the Walker recall, a sufficient number of signatures was returned to force recall elections for Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R), and four Republican state Senators (Fitzgerald, Galloway, Moulton and Wanggaard).