This is the html version of the file
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/sites/tampabay.com.blogs.the-buzz-florida-politics/files/january_2012_polling_memo.doc.
Google automatically generates html versions of documents as we crawl the web.
201 N Union Street, Suite 410
Alexandria, Virginia 22314
(703) 684-6688 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting (703) 684-6688
end_of_the_skype_highlighting(703) 836-8256 FAX
dsackett@tarrance.com
The Tarrance Group
www.tarrance.com
memorandum
to: everglades foundation
from: dave sackett
re: key findings from a statewide survey of voter attitudes
in florida
date: january 17, 2012
________________________________________________________________________
The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the Everglades Foundation with the key
findings from a survey of voter attitudes in Florida. These key findings are
based on telephone interviews with N=607 “likely” registered voters throughout
the state. Responses to this survey were gathered January 10-12, 2012 and the
confidence interval associated with a sample of this type is + 4.1%.
Where applicable, the data from this study has been compared to the data from a
similar study conducted February 13-14, 2011 with a sample size of N=607 likely
registered voters throughout the state of Florida.
General Election Ballot Test
The ballot test for the general election is a statistical dead heat. Governor
Romney captures 45% of the vote in a Presidential ballot test among Florida
voters, while 46% indicate they would vote for President Obama, and 9% are
undecided. The chart below shows the ballot test in key regions of the state
and among specific voter groups:
Romney Obama
Undecided
All 45% 46% 9%
Miami DMA 29% 62% 9%
Orlando DMA 50% 43% 6%
Tampa DMA 49% 45% 7%
West Palm DMA 53% 35% 13%
Jacksonville DMA 56% 41% 3%
I-4 Corridor 51% 42% 8%
Men 46% 46% 8%
Women 45% 46% 9%
Romney Obama
Undecided
18-34 21% 66% 12%
35-44 31% 62% 7%
45-64 47% 43% 9%
65+ 56% 38% 6%
Caucasian voters 54% 37% 9%
Hispanic/Latino voters 41% 50% 9%
African American voters 5% 91% 5%
Republicans 85% 8% 7%
Democrats 15% 80% 5%
Independents 39% 44% 17%
Info Source - Cable TV 51% 45% 4%
Info Source – Broadcast TV 44% 44% 12%
Info Source – Newspapers 43% 52% 5%
Info Source – Radio 45% 30% 25%
Info Source – Internet 49% 45% 6%
GOP Presidential Primary Ballot
The 218 Republicans in the survey were asked how likely they would be to vote
in the Republican Presidential Primary election in Florida. Those Republicans
(N=211) who indicated that they were likely to vote in the Presidential
primary election were asked which of the candidates they would vote for.
Governor Romney captures forty-two percent (42%) of the vote on this primary
ballot test, while 16% indicate they would vote for former Speaker Newt
Gingrich, and 13% would vote for former Senator Rick Santorum. Congressman
Ron Paul receives 9% of the vote, while 6% indicate they would vote for
Governor Perry and 3% would vote for Ambassador John Huntsman. There are 10%
of GOP primary voters who are undecided on this primary ballot test.
Governor Romney captures 48% of the vote among GOP women, and receives 36% of
the vote among men, with 20% of GOP men indicating that they would vote for
Gingrich. Romney’s ballot strength increases with the age of the Republican,
and he stands with 51% of the vote among Republicans over the age of
sixty-five.
Impact of Scott Environmental Policies
Without being provided any information about his policies, respondents were
asked if they believe that Governor Scott’s policies on the environment and
the Everglades will help to protect or cause harm to the Everglades and the
environment in Florida.
The broad sentiment among the Florida electorate is that Governor Scott’s
environmental policies are largely benign, and forty-eight percent (48%)
believe that his policies will not have any impact on the Everglades and the
environment.
Those who believe that his policies will have an impact are evenly split, with
25% of Florida voters indicating they believe that Governor Scott’s policies
will help protect the environment and the Everglades, while 27% believe that
his policies will cause harm to the Everglades and the environment.
By playing a leadership role in advancing solutions for Everglades restoration
and water supply issues, there exists an opportunity for Governor Scott to
significantly improve his standing in this area. Currently, the “verdict is
still out” on Scott’s Everglades policies.
Governor Scott’s Everglades Budget Proposal
Respondents were exposed to two different versions of a question regarding
Governor Scott’s budget proposal for funding for Everglades restoration. The
first version of the question simply indicated that funding would increase
from $30 to $40 million. The second version of the question “highlighted”
that the Governor’s proposal represents a $10 million increase over last
year’s funding level. The results of the two questions are profiled below:
Support for Governor Scott’s Proposal
to Increase Everglades Funding $10 million
Favor 58%
Oppose 34%
Unsure 8%
Partisanship does not play a significant role in views on this proposal, as
support for this funding plan stands at 54% among Republicans, 56% among
Democrats, and fifty-nine percent (59%) among Independents.
Views on Funding for Everglades Restoration
Respondents were exposed to two different “competing” views on the issue of
funding for Everglades restoration and asked which view comes closest to their
own. The specific arguments that respondents were exposed to are profiled
below:
Some people say/
Other people say that funding for Everglades restoration should be
increased because protecting
the water supply is critical to the future
economic success of the state
Other people say/
Some people say that funding for Everglades restoration must continue to
be cut because the
state is facing a massive budget crisis and
cuts must be made to every program.
As you can see from the chart below, there has been a significant increase in
the view that funding for Everglades restoration should be increased. The
view that funding for Everglades restoration has increased by +13 points over
the past eleven months, and the view that it should be cut has declined by an
equal -13 points.
Feb. 2011 Jan. 2012
Should be increased 51% 64%
Should be cut 41% 28%
Neither 4% 3%
Unsure 4% 4%
As you can see from the chart below, there is strong majority support for
increasing Everglades restoration funding among all key media markets and
among all demographic groups.
Increased Cut
All 64% 28%
Miami DMA 79% 13%
Orlando DMA 54% 39%
Tampa DMA 62% 29%
West Palm DMA 69% 21%
Jacksonville DMA 59% 30%
Men 63% 30%
Women 66% 26%
18-34 78% 16%
35-44 74% 20%
45-64 63% 28%
65+ 60% 33%
Caucasian voters 60% 31%
Hispanic/Latino voters 79% 16%
African American voters 71% 24%
Republicans 49% 42%
Democrats 77% 18%
Independents 66% 24%
Conservatives 55% 36%
Moderates 55% 26%
Liberals 84% 12%
Polling Questions
Now thinking ahead to the election for President that will be held in 2012 --
What is the likelihood of your voting in the upcoming election for President –
are you extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely, or not very likely at
all?
If the primary election for the Republican nomination for President were held
today, and you had to make a choice, for which of the following candidates would
you vote -- (RANDOMIZE) --
• Mitt Romney,
• Newt Gingrich
• Jon Huntsman
• Ron Paul
• Rick Santorum
• Rick Perry
Now, thinking about the election for President –
If the general election were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom
would you vote...
(ROTATE NAMES)
-- Mitt Romney, the Republican,
or
-- Barack Obama, the Democrat?
Thinking now about Rick Scott’s environmental policies --
Thinking about what you have seen, read or heard about Rick Scott’s policies
related to the Everglades and the environment, would you say that his policies
will – (ROTATE) -- ● help to protect, or ● cause harm – to
the Everglades and the environment?
Now thinking about the Everglades --
After several years of reductions, Governor Scott recently proposed increasing
the state’s investment in
Everglades restoration from $30 million to $40 million. Would you favor or
oppose this proposal?
In the 2012 state budget, Governor Rick Scott has proposed increasing state
spending Everglades restoration to $40 million – a $10 million increase over
last year. Thinking about this –
Do you favor or oppose the proposal by Governor Scott to increase state
spending on Everglades restoration
by $10 million over last year in the next budget to a total of $40 million?
Now I would like you to think about the issue of the “Everglades” for a
moment. Some people in Florida
fee that protecting and restoring the Everglades is important to them, while
others say that protecting and restoring
the Everglades is not really an important issue to them. Thinking about your
own views on this issue --
Please tell me, using a scale from 1 to 10, where 1 means it is "not at all
important" and 10 means it is "extremely
important", how important the issue of “restoring the Everglades” is to you
personally.
In recent years, Everglades restoration projects have been cut more
significantly than just about any other portion
of the state budget. Additional cuts are likely to result in layoffs for many
construction workers, engineers, and other
contractors who are employed designing and building these projects. Thinking
about the possibility of these layoffs –
I'd like to read you two viewpoints. Please tell me which one comes closest
to your own.
Some people say/
Other people say that funding for Everglades restoration should be
increased because protecting
the water supply is critical to the future
economic success of the state.
Other people say/
Some people say that funding for Everglades restoration must continue to
be cut because the
state is facing a massive budget crisis and
cuts must be made to every program.
Funding should be increased
Funding should be cut
Both equally
Neither
Unsure
-30-