A new poll has been released in the Washington state gubernatorial contest. The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for KING 5, shows AG Rob McKenna (R) leading Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) 46% to 43%, with 11% undecided. The poll surveyed 617 registered voters and has a margin of error of 4%.
A Monte Carlo analysis simulating a million elections using these poll results gives the election to McKenna 707,667 times and Inslee 281,715 times. These results suggest that, if the election was held now, McKenna would have a 71.5% probability of winning and Inslee would win with a 28.5% probability. Here is the distribution of electoral votes from the simulated elections [FAQ]:
Today’s result makes the fourth consecutive poll that finds McKenna in the lead. A Survey USA poll taken from Nov. 21 to 23 of last year showed McKenna leading Inslee 44% to 38%. (I completely missed that poll until it was old news, so I have no post for it, but the Monte Carlo analysis gives McKenna an 88% chance of winning to Inslee’s 12% chance, had an election be held then.)
An October Washington Poll poll gave McKenna a 43.9% to 38.4% lead. Before that, a September Survey USA poll had McKenna up 44% to 38%. In fact, we have to go all the way back to a June Survey USA poll to find Inslee leading McKenna, 47% to 44%.
At this point it is undeniable that McKenna is the frontrunner. It isn’t inevitable that we will have a Republican Governor next year, but that’s what the polls have been saying for almost half a year….
The most recent analysis for the Inslee—McKenna race can be found here.
That’s not a good sign.
I Got Nuthin' spews:
Two words: Mike! and Susan.
These polls mean absolutely nothing. McKenna is riding a long history of running unopposed (or essentially unopposed) and producing one self-promoting “educational” commercial after another. In plenty of time Washington voters–and especially King County–will come to learn that he’s a Scott Walker loving Teabagger who does not represent our values.
You read it here first:
That’s too thin of a win to be as confident as you are ahead of time.
The model for a Republican win in a state wide race is don’t lose big in the Puget Sound Basin and win big outside the PSB. McKenna’s one state wide twice before and could go for the hat trick.
Wasn’t Rossi polling ahead of Gregoire at about this time in the election cycle? The campaign has hardly begun, and there are enough thoughtful voters in western washington to make the right decision. But Inslee will need all the help he can get.
Inslee needs to actually start campaigning. He is really quite silent and not in the news. I did read one interview with him and it was…quite unimpressive. My stomach sank.
I think McKenna campaigns with state resources in his state job and using state employees.
Roger Rabbit spews:
It looks like McKenna’s lead narrows with each new poll. I think the frontrunner status will flip once voters figure out that McKenna is a Scott Walker clone.
Tom @ 4,
Sort-of. Here is a graph showing the trend from Feb through mid-October for the Rossi v. Murray (not Gregoire) race:
Rossi did have a slight lead around this time in 2010. McKenna’s lead seems stronger and more persistent this cycle.
On the other hand, this graph shows that there is a long time, filled with numerous polls, before we get to the election.
Rossi was a joke by the time the 2010 election came around and personally I think his ’04 “success” was a bit of fluke. I think McKenna’s a whole different animal.
I Got Nuthin' spews:
I wanted to go with a bigger spread in my prediction, but was afraid I’d come across as overly confident.
And so it goes….
Roger Rabbit spews:
I think the presidential election will be hard-fought, which will boost turnout, and that will help downticket Democrats. Public attention will be riveted on an intense election battle in Wisconsin in June, just before the conventions, so voter interest will remain high all summer. There’s also a high potential for dramatic news events that could influence election outcomes, such as a possible war with Iran. I don’t think either party’s presidential candidate will have long coattails, but Obama should be helped by a falling unemployment rate, a pickup in hiring, a rising stock market, and improving consumer confidence. Meanwhile, the GOP nominee will face the task of reuniting a divided Republican Party after a bruising primary campaign.
@10 The effect of the Walker recall election will depend on whether the mainstream media finally start paying attention. When I think back, I realize that most of the information I’ve obtained about the shennanigans in Wisconsin have been via the Internet or “alternative” sources like HuffPost or Al Jazeera. If this whole thing finally gets a decent amount of play in the daily fishwrap and the six o’clock news, a lot of Americans (the ones not already addicted to Fux Noise) will get a surprise lesson in the endgame that present-day American “conservatives” are aiming at.
Obviously Jay doesn’t want to be Gov. and Rob does. He’s going to wind up like that also ran dem that lost to Scott Brown in MA.
Last Nov. at our school, Shoreline Community College, there was a big conference with the student body regarding the budget cuts and how they were poised to affect our situation (tuition, classes, programs, services, faculty).
Both Inslee and McKenna were invited to address the student body. McKenna had a slick/crass infomercial on the big screen (no one was convinced) and his daughter was there to shill for him and absorb/deflect challenges/opposition.
Inslee’s team pulled a complete NO-SHOW.
They are headquartered in Shoreline, and couldn’t be bothered to come down the 25 blocks to meet us!
I wrote Inslee the next day saying that we had approximately a thousand voters he lost that day and that kind aloof behavior is exactly how elections are lost.. No Reply.
McKenna’s ads are all over the sidebars of the blogs I read; HuffPo, the Stranger, TPM, etc. Inslee’s nowhere to be seen.
I guess he thinks that the stranger’s editorials are gonna carry his entirely for him.
I certainly won’t be voting for fascistbagger McKenna, but I won’t be surprised if he wins either. At least he wants it, unlike these other milquetoast dems without balls or enthusiasm.
Yeah this is coming late and will probably be un read:
If you are refering to this event, it happened on a day Congress was in session. So if Congressman Inslee left Washington to meet with the students of Shoreline community college, no disrepect intended, then he’s not really doing his job.
In fact, on that day, the House Energy and Commerce Comitte on which he serves held hearings. I presume McKenna was no further away than Olympia and sent a taped message. Inslee was in D.C. in the Federal Government and you’re upset he didn’t break away to deal with the Community College portion of the State budget?