HorsesAss.Org

Hillary

PRO:

First woman president.
Battle-hardened.
Has the best people.
Bill back in the WH.

CON

Wrong about the war.
Bill back in the WH.
Won’t help much down ticket.
Her people kinda suck, too.

FAVORITE unPC JAB

“Iron my shirt” -Moron with sign.

Barack

PRO

First black president (not counting Morgan Freeman).
Brings new voters into the party.
Right about the war.
Will help down ticket.

CON

Health care plan sucks.
Totally loves nuclear power.
Propensity to cave to GOP.
Has never won a seriously contested election.

FAVORITE unPC JAB

“Is he black enough?” -Stupid news commentator.

And not only has Gov. Christine Gregoire endorsed Sen. Barack Obama, she just rearranged her schedule: she will be at Key Arena at noon today, standing on stage beside him.

I’m not sure about the value of endorsements, but I suppose in terms of local ones, that’s about as dramatic as they come here in WA just a day before the Democratic caucus. (That’s also, by the way, one more super delegate for Obama, countering Rep. Norm Dicks’ endorsement of Clinton.)

UPDATE:

Gov. Gregoire’s statement on Presidential endorsement

SEATTLE – Democrats in Washington state and across the country are fortunate to have the opportunity to select between two outstanding candidates, either of whom would be a great president. I have decided to endorse Barack Obama as the next president of the United States.

We must restore hope in America. We must put an end to politics of division – by gender, race, and faith. I know Washingtonians are tired of these divisions. They want us to tackle the tough challenges we face, and get result that make their lives better.

Barack Obama has a unique ability to reach across all the artificial divides and divisions to move our nation forward. At a time of great division in our country, we need a leader who will unite us. Barack Obama is that kind of leader.

I was inspired to pursue a career in public service by John F. Kennedy. His presidency heralded the arrival of a new generation of Americans to lead our nation. Like President Kennedy, Barack Obama is inspiring a new generation of young people to get involved. If elected, I believe he will lead us all – young and old, “blue and red” – to create a positive change in our communities, this nation and the world.

Um… John McCain…? He’s a conservative. Always has been. Always will be.

So all that shit about Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter supporting Hillary Clinton, or a conservative audience booing McCain? Well, it’s all, um, shit. Don’t believe it, don’t repeat it, and don’t help McCain run toward the center like all Republicans do when they sew up the nomination.

No, not Sen. John Kerry; he’s endorsed Obama. I’m talkin’ former Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska:

One of the minor shames of my life is that I came out of WA’s 1992 Democratic caucus — my first caucus ever — a loyal delegate for Bob Kerrey. (I switched over to Bill Clinton after he sealed the nomination, and managed to go all the way to the state convention.)

Why did I caucus for Kerrey? Because he moved me. Because he gave me hope. His passion, his personal story, his unorthodoxy… after 12 years of Reagan/Bush I hungered for a president who wasn’t just another politician, and Kerrey was unlike any other candidate I’d ever seen on the national stage. It was Kerrey who on the night he was first elected to the US Senate (and again, on the day he withdrew from the presidential race) sang the haunting lyrics to “And the Band Played Waltzing Matilda” in lieu of a formal speech. That was the Kerrey I caucused for. I wanted to believe, and he gave me the opportunity.

Unfortunately, as his Senate career progressed, Kerrey repeatedly proved himself more of a Republican than a Democrat, betraying his party on numerous occasions, along with the hopes and aspirations of working class Americans.

So if you wonder why I have so much trouble putting aside my cynicism and embracing Obama, a man I truly want to embrace, I need only remind you of the words of yet another great American politician: “Fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.” So if I caucus for Obama on Saturday, it sure as hell won’t be because he moves me. (Which, he does.)

The Seattle Community Council Federation is sounding the alarm. The threat?

Apartments and condos, apparently:

Over the holidays, the Department of Planning and Development (DPD) quietly issued a Declaration of Non Significance (DNS) on what it bills to the public and Council as a “Multi-Family Update.”

“Multi-Family” means apartment buildings or condos. “Multi-Family” doesn’t not mean single family housing, which makes up three quarters of the residential zoning in the city.

Adrienne Quinn, the City’s Housing Director, perhaps unwittingly, misrepresented the code changes to City Council when she described them as “some proposed changes to the multi-family code, really more clean-up”

Actually this “cleanup” is a total rewrite of all of the development standards for all the multi-family zones, a complete change in the comprehensive plan.

One person’s “clean up” is another’s “earth-shattering bureaucratic change”, so I’ll let this one slide for the moment.

Most important, it destroys the consensus reached after a long process in 1988 and 1989, when the city rewrote the code to deal with ugly, excessively dense conditions created by the city’s 1980’s attempt at an “experimental code.” The 1989 process took over a year and had an enormous amount of citizen input. Now the planning staff proposes to bring back the very problems that caused the 1989 rewrite—and even worse—to break all the promises made to communities who agreed to take Urban Villages.

Holy fucking shit, Batman! A consensus reached in 1989? What was that, like, two decades ago? (I was in second grade, for fuck’s sake!) We have to have the same fucking rules as 1989… after all, it’s not like anything has changed, right? Gas is still eighty cents a gallon? A hundred and eighty thousand bucks will buy you a house in any neighborhood in the city, right? Of course!

What kills me about these NIMBY types is that they fear ALL change. EVERYTHING new is suspect. Condos are evil, apartments are bad, mass transit will bring “undesirables” to the neighborhood, so on and so forth.

I’ve seen these folks in action. They’re the folks who fought the monorail because they didn’t want “those kind of people” (Blacks? Hispanics? Dan Savage?) taking the train to Ballard. Another group is lobbying hard against replacing the 520 bridge because there might be more “traffic” in their neighborhood (even though the neighborhood in question is far, far away from the bridge). In Magnolia, neighbors protested the building of- can you guess? A methadone clinic? A homeless shelter? Neither. The protest was over- get this- cottage housing. Wow.

What’s more, the SCCF have their meetings in a Homeland Security facility. Their meeting site is the NOAA site near Montlake. If you want to get in, you have to call somebody or be on the pre-approved list. It’s almost like they don’t want young kids like me showing up…

It’s a good thing that people in this city are committed to their neighborhoods. I just wish that the neighborhood folks realized that they live in a city. I’d love to one day be able to buy myself a reasonable flat in one of these neighborhood. But if we jihad against this zoning changes, I’ll be left with Mill Creek, Algona, or worse, Bothell. As someone who’d like to stay in the city, the reactionary “Lesser Seattle” folks are making that harder and harder.

Talk about a bad investment…

Romney launched his campaign almost a year ago in his native Michigan. The former Massachusetts governor and venture capitalist invested more than $40 million of his own money into the race, counted on early wins in Iowa and New Hampshire that never materialized and won just seven states on Super Tuesday, mostly small caucus states.

Romney spent about $136,000 per delegate… and that was just his own money. I guess that’s why he ran on his business experience.

The most important issue to me is health care. When liberals denounce the Iraq occupation, and demand that our troops be brought home, I nod in agreement.

But when Gov. Gregoire extends WA Basic Health to cover more people, or when presidential candidates talk about just how they’ll cover the 45 million uninsured, I pay attention. It’s not that I don’t care about the war, or think it’s less important. I don’t. But the inequality of our health care “system” has been a war in and of itself. It’s a war that has cost our government billions, has put millions of Americans needlessly into debt, and has caused angst and heartache at the kitchen tables of so many.

It’s between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. How are their health care plans different?

Both plans require that private insurers offer policies to everyone, regardless of medical history. Both also allow people to buy into government-offered insurance instead.

And both plans seek to make insurance affordable to lower-income Americans. The Clinton plan is, however, more explicit about affordability, promising to limit insurance costs as a percentage of family income. And it also seems to include more funds for subsidies.

But the big difference is mandates: the Clinton plan requires that everyone have insurance; the Obama plan doesn’t.

But what’s wrong with Obama’s plan?

Mr. Obama claims that people will buy insurance if it becomes affordable. Unfortunately, the evidence says otherwise.

After all, we already have programs that make health insurance free or very cheap to many low-income Americans, without requiring that they sign up. And many of those eligible fail, for whatever reason, to enroll.

An Obama-type plan would also face the problem of healthy people who decide to take their chances or don’t sign up until they develop medical problems, thereby raising premiums for everyone else.

Every person needs health care, and mandating it is the only way to get it done. What Obama is offering is a system that is signifigantly flawed, right out of the gate.

Krugman continues:

But while it’s easy to see how the Clinton plan could end up being eviscerated, it’s hard to see how the hole in the Obama plan can be repaired. Why? Because Mr. Obama’s campaigning on the health care issue has sabotaged his own prospects.

You see, the Obama campaign has demonized the idea of mandates — most recently in a scare-tactics mailer sent to voters that bears a striking resemblance to the “Harry and Louise” ads run by the insurance lobby in 1993, ads that helped undermine our last chance at getting universal health care.

Obama’s political sensibility is so fucked up that I bet he doesn’t understand the nature of the health care debate. It is going to be a knock down, drag out fight, and if Obama’s health care plan isn’t ready to go in Day 1, then he’s going to get hosed.

A few weeks ago I got a water bill from the City of Redmond. The bill listed the “Previous” meter reading at 191,800, the “Current Read” as 192,000, and “Consumption” as 1,000. Hmmm…. A calculator verified my hunch that the math was somewhat fuzzy. And an examination of earlier bills showed that, previously, the computer had always done the math correctly.

Last year, during the same two-month billing period, we had used about 1,000 cubic feet of water, but we had had a houseful of guests for an extended stay over the holidays. This year our normal two-person household had been reduced to a one-person household for the billing period and was even reduced to a zero person household for about 1/3 of that time while I was visiting the second person on the east coast.

When I called the water company they had a very simple explanation for their fuzzy math. The reading just seemed too low to them. So they figured the meter was stuck and “estimated” I used 1,000 cubic feet based on last year’s consumption.

“What! The! Fuck?” I was thinking as I politely explained the largely empty house during the billing period. I felt like I had just been pick-pocketed by my friendly city government and water provider. I suggested to the person on the phone that they should at least denote on the bill whenever they’ve entered an “estimated” amount. I mean, who the hell sits down and does the math from the raw meter readings every bill? “But…but…but” they had sent a meter reader out twice, she protested, as if that could somehow differentiate between a stuck water meter and an empty house.

In any case, I got the extra 800 cubic feet knocked off of my bill—all $11.68 of it. (Hey…it was the principle.)

A week later…a maintenance crew shows up and replaced the meter in front of my house. Uggggh!

The whole episode seemed like a big waste of time and resources—if they had simply called to ask about water usage in that billing period they’d have saved the expense of the second meter reading, the costs of sending a two-man crew to replace the meter, and the cost of the replacement meter.

I suppose one could use this as an example of the government being both inefficient and incompetent—you know…the way certain uninformed and hypocritical Wingnuts do in the comment threads all the time. In the big scheme of things my Redmond Water Utility experience is a drop of water in an ocean of government inefficiency and incompetence. Here’s the big picture version of my little story….

Fun game: What one is Carl?

…goes to the Garden Show.

For months now I’ve been joking that the Democratic nomination would all come down to Washington, postulating an unlikely scenario in which the candidates come out of Super Duper Tuesday in a two-way (or even three-way) tie, and the nation looking to WA caucus goers to set the momentum heading into the next leg of the campaign. Well whaddaya know… many a truth is said in jest.

And so why aren’t I more excited?

I guess, it’s because unlike much of the campaign thus far, there isn’t really a lot of suspense about what’s going to happen on Saturday. Obama’s been kicking ass in the caucus states, and he’s likely to repeat that success both here and in Nebraska, while his overwhelming support amongst black voters should serve him well in the Louisiana primary. Then comes another caucus in Maine on Sunday, followed by another good day for Obama on Tuesday as Maryland, D.C. and Virginia voters go to the polls, and almost surely extend his delegate lead. Then on the 19th we get a caucus in Hawaii and a primary in Wisconsin… two more contests that seem to favor Obama.

Yup, it’s all downhill for Obama in February, until he slams headfirst into the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4, and their 389 delegates, and then Pennsylvania’s 188 delegates on April 22, leaving us with one of three scenarios. Either Obama picks up enough speed and delegates throughout February to lead him to some big upset victories in delegate rich states, and eventually the nomination, or Clinton retakes a delegate lead she never relinquishes. Which brings us back to Washington.

The challenge for Obama supporters is not simply to win this Saturday but to win big, which in a caucus scenario requires both turnout and persuasion. Washington state has been home to a lot of Edwards supporters and a lot of fence sitters, both of which currently describe me, and thus there are a lot of voters still up for grabs. I’m slightly leaning toward Obama for purely pragmatic reasons (I think he’d do better for down-ticket candidates) but on Saturday afternoon the Clinton folks in my precinct will have every opportunity to convince me. And if there’s an opportunity to convince somebody like me — a guy who usually has a strong opinion on pretty much everything — I’m guessing the situation is a lot more fluid than most people imagine. For Obama to have a chance of smashing through Clinton’s structural advantages in the big states, he’s going to have to win convincingly in February. And that all starts Saturday afternoon in Washington. I don’t believe Clinton can win WA, but if she makes it close, that’s more than good enough.

Which brings us to that third scenario, which no, I didn’t forget, and explains why I’m feeling a bit more anxious than excited this morning. There is now the very real likelihood that Obama does well in February, does okay, but not great, in the big states, and heads into the August convention with a small lead in pledged delegates, but not enough to overcome Clinton’s superdelegate advantage. I know “real” journalists are drooling over the possibility of a brokered convention, but this could be disastrous for the Democrats. If superdelegates and/or disputed delegates from Michigan and Florida end up determining the nomination contrary to the ultimate choice made by voters at the caucuses and polls, there could be a crisis of legitimacy that could damage Democratic prospects up and down the ballot. (A Clinton/Obama ticket would be the obvious solution, and a killer combination for November.)

How likely is this scenario? Certainly no more likely than the situation we’re in now. Which makes Saturday’s caucus all the more important.

So you rabid Obama supporters (yeah, I’m talkin’ to you Howie), it’s time to put up or shut up. You better kick ass on Saturday, or prepare to deal with the consequences.

Ron Paul had a disappointing finish in Alaska, placing 3rd behind Romney and Huckabee. I think the most fascinating thing about the Ron Paul Revolution is that if Paul officially drops out now, half his supporters will be deciding whether to support Obama, while the other half will be deciding whether to assassinate him.

I had missed this news from a week or so back, but Gene Johnson from the AP (who is a friend and co-rec soccer teammate of mine) alerted me to this hilarious bit of irony on Seattle’s new strip club:

There’s no word yet on whether neighbor-appreciation night will include black robes and gavels, but Seattle’s first new strip club in 20 years is going in less than a block from the federal courthouse.

And from his chambers on the 14th floor, U.S. District Judge James Robart — who struck down the city’s ban on new cabarets two years ago — has a bird’s-eye view.

“There is some irony there,” said Marty McOmber, a spokesman for Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels.

Déjà Vu Showgirls is planning to open the club, the city’s fifth, in the basement of Fantasy Unlimited, an erotic boutique and movie theater less than a block from the courthouse.

As long as I live, I will never understand the weird hang-up this city has with strip clubs.

Finally, opium production our attempts to eradicate opium in Afghanistan continue to fuel the Taliban. As always, the AP report fails to mention several relevant points. The first being that the reason that the Taliban can impose a 10 percent tax on the opium production is because our eradication efforts allow them to set up a protection racket. The second being that unless western nations can greatly reduce the demand for the illegal drugs that rely on the opium production, a woman in a burqa will be planting the Afghan flag on the moon before we ever succeed in stopping it.

On the Today Show this morning, Democratic strategist Paul Begala said, “If McCain wins, he’s running for a third term for Bush. He wants to make Bush’s Iraq war permanent, Bush’s economic program permanent.” To which Pat Buchanan responded, “He will make Cheney look like Gandhi.” Think Progress has the clip.

One thing you gotta admire about Buchanan… he always speaks his mind.

Obama. Maybe I’ll change my mind once I sleep on it, but I’m pretty sure Obama was the big winner. Sure, maybe Clinton won a few more delegates — or maybe not, nobody seems to be exactly sure — but anybody who thought her nomination was inevitable certainly doesn’t anymore.

So yeah, it was Obama.

I’m live blogging from the Montlake Ale House, and the big news here is that Elizabeth is back. And oh yeah, Obama is the projected winner in IL & GA, and Clinton is the predicted winner in AR, OK and TN. Meanwhile on the Republican side (as if anybody cares) McCain has scored early victories in NJ, IL, DE & CT, but Huckabee is doing well throughout the south, with victories in WV and AR, while Romney’s likely going to pick up quite a few more states than MA and UT.

Oops, food arrived.

UPDATE [6:22]:
Finished eating. It was the Buffalo chicken burger. It was okay. Also, Clinton has been declared the winner in NJ and MA, two states where the early exit polls predicted a slight Obama lead. Clinton as gets NY, as expected, while Obama picks up DE and KS (and probably AL, though nobody’s called it yet.) Of course, what really matters is the delegate count and its unclear how that is breaking down thus far.

UPDATE [6:30]:
I does look like those early exit polls everybody was posting (including me) are not holding up. Both Romney and Obama have lost states the exit polls suggested they might win, while Obama’s margin in GA is turning out to be much narrower. Oh… and the networks haven’t done it yet, but I’m calling ID for Obama.

UPDATE [6:47]:
I’m sitting on pins and needles waiting for the Utah polls to close. Or maybe that’s just my sciatica….

UPDATE [7:00]:
Romney wins Utah! (I told you so.)

UPDATE [7:03]:
MSNBC calls ND for Obama. And UT.

UPDATE [7:05]:
The graphics on MSNBC are making me dizzy.

UPDATE [7:55]:
It looks like Obama is going to win a majority of states, but then, we don’t elect presidents by the square mile. We’ll see what happens in CA, but right now it’s looking like Clinton will win the delegate race tonight, the only question is by how much, and how that will be represented in the press.

UPDATE [8:00]:
CA has closed; “too close to call” for both parties. Meanwhile, Obama has claimed MN and ID. Is it interesting that Romney and Obama are winning many of the same states?

UPDATE [9:21]:
Clinton wins CA. But Obama will end up winning 12, maybe 13 of the 22 states in play tonight, so he wins, since of course, we elect presidents by the square mile. (Or so Republicans wished.) Or at the very least, Obama is still very much alive in this race.

UPDATE [9:56]:
Crowd is thinning out at the Ale House. Early night. Anyway, Obama got AK and MO (just barely) giving him 13 states to Clinton’s 9… unclear how that influences the media narrative, and no clear idea about the actual delegate count, as many of Obama’s wins were in caucus states. In fact, Obama kicked ass in the caucus states… that tends to indicate either a strong ground game, or an activist movement. Considering he was up against Clinton, I’m guessing the latter.