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A new Rassmussen poll of the Washington state gubernatorial race shows Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) leading challenger Dino Rossi (“G.O.P. Party”) 50% to 46%, with 5% “undecided”. The poll had 500 respondents and was taken on August 6th. The margin of error is 4.5%

This race is a rematch of the 2004 closest gubernatorial race in history that Gregoire won by 133 votes after a count, a mandatory recount, one recount requested by the Democrats, and a failed Republican lawsuit challenging the election. (Rossi ran as a Republican in 2004. This year he is running under the “G.O.P. Party” label.)

The close 2004 election led to extraordinarily early polling for the 2008 race. In the first 15 polls conducted from August 2005 until November 2006, Rossi led Gregoire, and always with over 50%. But with this current Rasmussen poll, Rossi has not held the lead for 16 consecutive polls—going back to February 2008:

Also, Gregoire has now polled at 50% or better in the raw percentages for the last two polls (the graph shows the normalized percentages).

My usual analysis, a simulation of a million elections of 500 people each, shows Gregoire winning 735,981 times and Rossi winning 253,856 times. This suggests that, if an election were held today, Gregoire would have a 74.4% chance of winning and Rossi would have a 25.6% change.

The simulation yields a distribution of votes that looks like this:

Rasmussen also polled for the Obama–McCain race in Washington state. Obama leads McCain 54% to 42%. Obama’s +12% advantage matches the +12% in the previous poll, an Elway poll from late July, and the +11% of a Strategic Vision poll taken just before that. In fact, this race has largely stabilized in Obama’s favor after a weak spell in March:

(Cross posted at Hominid Views)

Today is the Accountability Now money bomb, a one-day fundraising drive led by a coalition of both left and right bloggers who are angry about the passage of the FISA legislation and the slow erosion of our civil liberties.

Paul Krugman is too classy to say it, but what he’s describing here is what defined the fascist movements in Europe after World War I.

The FBI is now looking into the drug raid in Maryland where police shot and killed the two black Labradors of the mayor of Berwyn Heights (who was completely innocent).

After reading this, then this, I get the sense that the Bush Administration really wants Douglas Feith to be their Wee-Bey, but that Feith isn’t willing to be such a good soldier.

I’m involved in a new group called the Cannabis Defense Coalition that will be tracking information on the arrests of valid medical marijuana patients across the state and will be working to improve the draft rules devised by the State Department of Health, starting at the meeting in Tumwater on August 25.

Here are some amazing pictures of the Olympic Opening Ceremonies.

UPDATE: And one more item, a video that follows up on the Charlie Lynch verdict from Southern California that I wrote about the other day.

The Stranger’s Dan Savage finds some not-so-hidden meaning in “G.O.P. party” candidate Dino Rossi’s “too big, too hard” ad.

So he asks The Stranger’s Kelly O for something of a “truth in advertising” make-over:

Join me, Matt Stoller, and Joan “McJoan” McCarter, on Meet the Bloggers with host Cenk Uygur and special guest Darcy Burner today at 10 AM Pacific time, where we’ll be discussing the Responsible Plan to end the war in Iraq.  

Watch the live stream in the embedded player above (I think) or go to the meetthebloggers.org where you can join the conversation in the comment thread.

Score one for the good guys today as the Seattle Times editorial board endorses incumbent Judge Robin Hunt for Court of Appeals, Division II, over BIAW shill and former (un)Sound Politics contributor Tim Ford:

Hunt’s challenger is Tim Ford, the open-government ombudsman for Attorney General Rob McKenna and was deputy state solicitor. Before working for McKenna, he was the in-house counsel for the Building Industry Association of Washington, which paid for some of the nastiest ads in previous judicial races.

We have seen no such ads in Ford’s race, and don’t expect any.

We like Ford’s emphasis on protecting the individual citizen and his enthusiastic support of public disclosure, but he has no judicial record and no jury-trial experience.

Legal know-it-alls tell me that Judge Hunt isn’t all that, but Ford isn’t much of anything. Ask Ford’s “fellow lawyers” in the AG’s office about their “colleague’s” legal qualifications (and I use those terms loosely) and the best he can hope for is a nervous laugh or a dismissive eye roll. Then again, while actually seeing the inside of courtroom (in person, as opposed to, say, on TV) is usually a prerequisite for a position like deputy state solicitor let alone the Court of Appeals, the lack thereof didn’t seem to hold Attorney General Rob McKenna back any, so I guess you can’t blame Ford for trying.

Anyway, I’ve got no idea if Judge Hunt is much of a liberal, or even a Democrat, but Ford is certainly as Republican as they come, so following our NHL-style scorecard we award two points to the Democrats, and zero to the Republicans, tightening up the overall standings for statewide and other prominent races.

Seattle Times Endorsements	GP	W	L		T	Pts
Republicans	7	3	1		3	9
Democrats	7	1	3		3	5
Third Parties	7	0	6		0	0

PROGRAMMING NOTE:
Stay tuned for Meet the Bloggers at 10 AM.

Darcy Burner and Dave Reichert released their July fundraising totals today in advance of WA’s August 19 primary, and as reported by Postman (or maybe Emily Heffter, I’m kinda confused) it wasn’t even close.

Rep. Dave Reichert, the two-term Republican incumbent, raised $115,474 during July, compiling $929,113 in cash on hand.

Democratic challenger Darcy Burner raised more — $350,837– during July, and reported having almost $1.5 million in the bank. […] Burner has been outpacing Reichert in fundraising throughout the campaign, but she’s also been spending more.

“Burner raised more” …?  Talk about an understatement.  She raised over three times more.  And while yeah, sure, Burner’s numbers were pumped up by the incredible outpouring of affection and support in the wake of the fire that claimed her home, her cat and all her belongings, Reichert’s numbers are truly pathetic, barely covering his $100K in expenses for the month.

And as to Postman’s (Heffter’s?) assertion that Burner’s “also spending more,” um… no she hasn’t.  So far both campaigns have spent about a million dollars over the cycle, with Reichert actually outspending Burner by a few thousand dollars.

Running for office is hard work, and it’s beginning to look like Reichert just isn’t up to the task.  For example, Reichert relied on PAC money to make up over 55% of his anemic July total, whereas Burner only raised 5% from PACs.  That kind of disparity tells you a lot about both candidates’ work ethic, and their allegiances.

As if McCain’s recent series of petty attacks on Obama aren’t enough to paint the old fart as pathetic. Now the McCain campaign is paying people to troll for him:

People who sign up for McCain’s program receive reward points each time they place a favorable comment on one of the listed Web sites (subject to verification by McCain’s webmasters). The points can be traded for prizes, such as books autographed by McCain, preferred seating at campaign events, even a ride with the candidate on his bus, known as the Straight Talk Express, according to campaign spokesman Brian Rogers.

The sign-up page, complete with talking points du jour and a report form, is located here.

I hope it works! I mean, nothing says “credible candidate” like the same talking point being dumped over and over again in every comment thread that even peripherally mentions McCain. I mean…it worked for Ron Paul didn’t it? (And those lovable whack-jobs weren’t even getting paid for their robo-commenting.)

I’m encouraging everyone (yes…even you) to get a piece of the action. I mean, the McCain paraphernalia memorabilia will be highly prized some day. Besides, how many of McCain’s supporters actually know about The Internets AND know that it’s a Google in order to find the “Spread The Word” page?

Therefore, by joining in the fun, you not only spread your own philosophy of McCain and his talking points, but you earn cool stuff and help the economy by enticing the McCain staff to hire additional webmasters to wade through thousands and thousands of comment reports.

The easiest way to comment is to simply copy the talking points verbatim. But my own recommendation is this:

John McCain is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I’ve ever known in my life.

What could be more positive then that? Hundreds of thousands of times in blog comment threads across the land. Day after day.

Got another idea? Leave your suggested message in the comment thread. And then sign-up, get busy, and start earning cool stuff!

[via Juan Cole]

I’ll be joining Joan McCarter of Daily Kos, Matt Stoller of Open Left and host Cenk Uygur on Meet the Bloggers this Friday at 10 AM Pacific. Darcy Burner will be Cenk’s guest this week, and our topic will be her Responsible Plan to end the war in Iraq. You can stream the show live (I’ll embed a player here on HA) and participate through the comment thread, or you can view an archive after it’s posted.

In the months since Darcy introduced the Responsible Plan and fifty-some House and Senate challengers signed on to it, many of the plan’s major talking points have been quietly adopted by Democratic leaders including Barack Obama. Of course, this really shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, considering that one of the most powerful lessons I learned from Darcy’s effort is that bringing our troops home from Iraq really isn’t rocket science. We all know the way… what’s been missing thus far has been the will.

Indeed, one of the most common criticisms of the Plan was that much of it wasn’t all that original, merely drawing from existing legislation and the proposals of the Baker/Hamilton Commission. But that’s also the Plan’s greatest strength, as much of its proposals are both uncontroversial and eminently doable.

What Darcy produced was a comprehensive legislative agenda… a roadmap for what she and her fellow congress members can do to end this war responsibly, and prevent the same sort of mistakes from happening again. Of course, it will take leaders like Darcy to see this Plan through to fruition.

Covering items related to the drug war here at HA, I’ve focused mostly on local happenings, but the drug war continues to destroy lives all over. Here are four recent cases from across the United States:

California

In California, where medical marijuana has been legal for 12 years now, a dispensary owner in Morro Bay named Charlie Lynch was convicted yesterday in a federal court and faces a minimum of five years in jail, and a maximum of 85.

During the trial, the jury was not allowed to know that Lynch was providing marijuana to people who were ill and authorized by doctors under state law to use marijuana. The judge even went so far as to try to keep registered patients out of the courtroom in order to deceive the jury as to the true nature of Lynch’s business. As far as they knew, he was just some guy selling drugs to people, and not a legitimate business owner who was warmly welcomed by the mayor of Morro Bay. He had no criminal record but could now receive a longer sentence than if he’d murdered someone.

Reason.tv has covered this case extensively. Drew Carey produced a great video on Lynch and one of his customers, a young man who got bone cancer in high school, lost his leg, and discovered that marijuana was the most effective medicine for the phantom pain that many amputees experience. Nick Gillespie has more here, as does Radley Balko.

Maryland

Cheye Calvo, the mayor of Berwyn Heights, Maryland, was raided by a Prince George County SWAT team on the evening of July 29th. After storming into the house, according to Calvo, the officers shot one of his two black Labrador retrievers immediately and shot the second one as it ran away. The reason for the raid was that police intercepted a large package of marijuana addressed to Calvo’s wife.

After first claiming that Calvo, his wife, and his mother-in-law were “persons-of-interest,” the police later figured out that it was a scheme to mail a package to a random person and intercept it. The police also claim that the dogs were threatening them, a claim that Calvo strongly disputes. In addition, the officers didn’t even have a no-knock warrant, so the entire raid was illegal anyway.

Ohio

This January in Lima, Ohio, a SWAT team raided a house occupied by Tarika Wilson and her 6 children. The police were looking for her boyfriend, Anthony Terry, who was suspected of dealing drugs. Wilson was shot and killed by Officer Joe Chavalia as she was on her knees trying to protect her 1-year-old son. The toddler was shot twice but managed to only lose a finger. Terry was arrested during the raid and is now serving a 7-year jail sentence for selling crack and marijuana to police informants. Wilson was never a suspect.

Chavalia was charged with negligent homicide, but at the trial, claimed that he thought he was under attack when he heard his fellow officers shooting Wilson’s two pit bulls during the raid. He was acquitted this week by an all-white jury. Both Wilson and Terry are black.

Black residents of Lima are furious as this is just another in a long line of questionable incidents by local police towards their community. The U.S. Department of Justice is considering civil rights charges. The Lima police department has yet to apologize or even admit that a mistake was made. Anthony Terry was certainly breaking the law (although he was no more than a low-level dealer), and there may even have been reason to think he was potentially dangerous, but raiding a house where six kids are living and shooting wildly is never acceptable in any circumstance.

Florida

Arguably the most moronic story comes from Tallahassee. A 23-year-old graduate of Florida State University named Rachel Hoffman was arrested by police in possession of 5 ounces of marijuana and 6 ecstasy pills. It was her second arrest after being forced into drug treatment once after police had pulled her over with marijuana in her car a year before. According to her friends, she was a bit of a hippie who just supplied her college friends with recreational drugs.

At this point, she was potentially facing some real prison time, so she decided (without the knowledge of her attorney) to become an informant and help Tallahassee police bust some suspected gang members in order to avoid going to jail. The police set Hoffman up on a sting to try to purchase a large amount of drugs and a gun from Deneilo Bradshaw and Andrea Green. The two men, likely smelling the idiotic sting attempt from a mile away, lured Hoffman to a different location and killed her. Bradshaw and Green have been arrested and face murder charges.

This case has gotten the most media attention so far, including a report on ABC’s 20/20 which contains a long interview with the unbelievably clueless Tallahassee Police Chief. Hoffman’s parents are angry as hell and are now worried that the judge in Bradshaw and Green’s murder case is trying to keep them from criticizing local officials over what happened.

I don’t always agree with with the P-I’s Joel Connelly, but I do respect him, so when he tells me that Tim Eyman’s latest for-profit initiative “deserves a look,” I decided to do exactly that. And you know what…? Connelly’s right; with I-985, Timmy may actually be “on to something.”

Or, on something as the case might be, considering much of what he’s proposing achieves the exact opposite of what he’s promising voters. Ah well… plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose.

Of course there’s a lot of stupid, selfish crap in Eyman’s initiative—that goes without saying—like opening HOV lanes to all comers outside the narrow hours of 6-9AM and 3-6PM weekdays that newly self-anointed transportation expert Eyman defines as rush hour. I’m sure that will win a bunch of votes from SOV drivers who fantasize about riding in the fast lane without the unbearable burden of a passenger… but if you think opening an extra lane to general purpose traffic is going to move things any faster on 520, there’s a shady fellow named Dino Rossi who has an eight-lane bridge to sell you.

Then there’s the popular synchronize traffic lights provision—a kinda silly, redundant mandate that reminds me of when my mother used to ask me to take out the trash as I was already halfway out the door with the bag, thus stripping me of an credit for taking the initiative. And of course there’s the “Reduce Congestion Fund,” a typically Eymanesque display of something for nothing legerdemain that fixes congestion without raising taxes by you know… stealing money from other stuff that taxpayers like.

But my favorite provision in I-985, the one that earns my endorsement, is the one that requires that tolls only be used to pay for the construction of the particular section of freeway or bridge on which they’re levied. I suppose Eyman supposes that this’ll tie the congestion pricers up in knots—which it will do—but take heart fellow enviros, for it will also result in less new road construction and fewer new miles of general purpose lanes built throughout the Puget Sound region and the state.

Let’s be clear: the 520 floating bridge is going to be replaced before it sinks into the lake (or perhaps, shortly thereafter); that is perhaps DOT’s number one priority. And all the current financing plans heavily rely on tolling both the 520 and I-90 bridges to pay for it. Remove I-90 tolls from the equation, and we not only lose a big chunk of federal funds that were predicated on tolling I-90, we also make it impossible to put any substantial toll on 520 without shifting the bulk of the traffic to its toll-free alternative.

This means we’re going to have to find a billion or so dollars elsewhere to pay for the new 520 bridge, and that money is going to come at the expense of other DOT projects throughout the region and the state. Yeah, that’s right all you Seattle haters on the other side of the mountains… if you vote to to prevent us from tolling ourselves to build our own bridge, the state will have no choice but to suck transportation dollars over the pass in our direction for a change.

And that Reduce Congestion Fund that pulls money out the general fund? Um… where is all this congestion that needs reducing? Why, in the Puget Sound region of course, meaning yet more tax dollars will be flowing East to West, courtesy of everybody’s favorite Mukilteo initiative impresario. But don’t worry Eastern and Central WA voters… Timmy’s going to synchronize all those traffic lights and open up all those HOV lanes that, you know… you don’t have.

Ironically, if I-985 passes it will largely be on the back of the “Fuck Seattle” vote, despite the fact that the end result will be a net inflow of tax dollars to our region. And doubly ironically, while Eyman claims to be addressing traffic congestion, the anti-tolling provisions will most definitely result in less road building, not more.

So if, like me, you want less road construction, not more, and you believe that increasing traffic congestion through stupid proposals like Eyman’s will only further incentivize voters to build more transit, then yeah, Joel’s right, I-985 does deserve a closer look, and perhaps, your very cynical vote.

With today’s endorsement of incumbent Brian Sonntag in the State Auditor’s race, the Seattle Times editorial endorsement scorecard now stands at Republicans 5, Democrats 0. Or figuring in the “Johnson Factor,” perhaps its 4-1… either way, Republicanism is still in the lead.

Sure, Sonntag technically “Prefers Democratic Party,” but since he’s become Tim Eyman’s bitch, even that vague label has become pretty damn meaningless. I mean, how many times is he going to audit Sound Transit? I guess if he audits long enough and often enough he’ll eventually catch Joni Earl lying about a blow job or something, but there must be some other state or local agency that deserves his undivided attention.

But I’ll be generous and split the difference, moving to an indecisive, NHL-style scorecard that awards two points for a win, and 1 point for a tie. That gives the R’s two points each for Reed, Martin and Bond, while awarding one point each to both teams for Sonntag, Johnson and the inexplicable Dorn-Bergeson dual endorsement in the SPI race. (I mean, what’s the point?)

So here are today’s revised standings:

Seattle Times Endorsements	GP	W	L		T	Pts
Republicans	6	3	0		3	9
Democrats	6	0	3		3	3
Third Parties	6	0	6		0	0

Join us at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally for an evening of politics under the influence. We begin at 8:00 pm at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Some of us will show up early for Dinner.

Tonight’s theme song might just have to be a torturous number by the most recently declared presidential candidate:

For tonight’s activity, we’ll pass around and evaluate McCain’s recently announced health care plan:

If you find yourself in the Tri-Cities area this evening, check out McCranium for the local Drinking Liberally. Otherwise, check out the Drinking Liberally web site for dates and times of a chapter near you.