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The Seattle P-I’s business columnist, Bill Virgin, voices a perspective we haven’t heard too much from during the debate over I-892 (Slots for Tots.) [Gambling craze not a good bet for states]

States are making a big mistake counting on taxes on gambling to provide a stable source of revenues. And Bill points out that even as the rest of the nation has rushed to explode gambling, Nevada has been working diligently to diversify their economy.

Tim Eyman is pitching I-892 as something for nothing, a $400 million tax cut that won’t cut services. His “revenue neutral” claim is a lie, of course, that shows an understanding of economics as shallow as his ethics. It also ignores the enormous cost to state and local governments of dealing with gambling’s problems. Not to mention the incalculable toll in human misery.

But all that aside, I-892 suggests we’re sitting on top of an untapped reservoir of tax revenues, and that the more we expand gambling the less we’ll have to rely on taxpayers to fund essential government services.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

As the market approaches saturation, revenues will decline with margins, and many casinos will find themselves hard pressed to turn a profit. You can be sure that with billions of dollars in revenues and thousands of employees, casino operators will turn towards the Legislature for tax breaks to keep them in business.

Even now, one of the arguments made to legalize slot machines is that non-tribal operators can’t compete with the tribal casinos. It is not a stretch to suggest that in the near future, further demands will be made to subsidize an industry controlled by foreign and out of state interests, and which adds not a single dime of wealth to our economy.

I don’t always agree with Bill Virgin, but this one’s a no-brainer. Expanding gambling is not a good bet for Washington state.

As published in a number of papers today, the AP reports that the sales tax deduction plan currently before congress would only benefit a third of Washington residents, the vast majority from wealthy households. [Sales tax deduction plan ripped]

In Washington state, 34.7 percent of taxpayers itemized on their federal returns in 2001, the study said. Those numbers dropped to 29.9 percent of those who earned below $100,000, and 17.8 percent of those who earned below $50,000.

By contrast, more than 90 percent of tax filers with annual incomes over $200,000 itemized.

Figures, doesn’t it? George Nethercutt, who’s running against Patty Murray for the Senate, has made a big hoo-hah about sales tax deductibility (a concept which is supported by the entire state delegation, even if the specific bill that contains this measure is not.) But as usual, Republican tax cuts tend to be primarily tax cuts for the rich.

(Oh… and Nethercutt also doesn’t like to mention the fact that it expires after two-years. Naw, that doesn’t sound like a manufactured election year issue, does it?)

Anyway, nobody from WA is going to argue against sales tax deductibility… it’s in our own interests. But it completely misses the point.

The real solution is not to reinstate sales tax deductibility (eliminated by Ronald Reagan, by the way) but to bring Washington’s tax structure into the 21st Century (hell, I’d settle for the 20th) and implement an income tax.

Yeah I know, common wisdom is that the income tax is the third rail of Washington politics, but judging from the turnout at his Tax Reform Town Hall Meeting on Saturday, gubernatorial candidate Ron Sims has apparently touched it and lived. In fact, rumors are that polls show Sims steadily closing the gap on frontrunner Christine Gregoire in the weeks since he prominently made tax reform the central theme of his campaign.

Gregoire and Rossi maintain their dismissive attitude towards this issue at their own risk. I was impressed by Sims’ deft mixture of energetic populism with a genuine effort to build consensus by providing voters the tools to understand this very complex issue. (Take a look at the Tax Reform Calculator on his campaign website for an example of his measured approach.)

Talking to Sims, he seems to understand that any tax reform package must come before the people as either an initiative or a referendum. As Governor, his role would not be to impose a plan from on top, but to use his bully pulpit to build consensus from the ground up.

Whatever speculation one might make as to the political calculations that led Sims to embrace what most consultants would consider a losing issue, I am convinced that his decision is a display of faith… faith that voters will welcome a reasonable discussion on the issues, whatever the partisan rhetoric of reform opponents.

For example, depending on how one structured a tax reform package, we could actually generate the extra billion dollars I-884 wants to put towards funding education, without costing state taxpayers a single dime. Show me a voter who wouldn’t at least want to hear the details of such a win-win proposal, and I’ll show you… Tim Eyman.

In my ode to Phil Talmadge on his withdrawal from the race (“Talmadge’s withdrawal smarts“) I summed up the Sims campaign by saying “Ron is running on being a leader.”

This is exactly the kind of leadership I was talking about.

I just wanted to point you towards an excellent editorial in in today’s Tacoma News Tribune: “Irresponsible initiative meets deserved fate.”

Enough said.

As reported here last week (“Sign this petition or I’ll break your leg! I-892’s biggest backer accused of loansharking“) a Canadian Broadcasting Corporation investigative report revealed allegations of loansharking at casinos run by the Great Canadian Gaming Corporation.

Of course, as an upstanding corporate citizen whose only concern is the welfare of its patrons, Great Canadian immediately initiated a libel suit against the CBC and other parties.

A libel suit is the legal equivalent of Great Canadian’s house loansharks threatening to break a customer’s legs. (Excuse me… alleged legs.) It is an act of pure intimidation, intended to send a message to media outlets here and abroad to let this story sleep with the fishes, or face hundreds of thousands of dollars of legal fees in retribution.

This is a cowardly and mean-spirited assault on our First Amendment by a foreign corporation intent on dominating Washington’s gambling industry and unduly influencing our state’s elections. Great Canadian has already spent at least $128,000 financing I-892’s campaign to legalize slot machines — a small price considering the millions they’ve invested purchasing four of our state’s largest non-tribal casinos.

So it is no surprise that as the Gambling Commission reviews its licenses, and voters consider a measure that could eventually suck hundreds of millions of dollars north of the border, Great Canadian doesn’t want the public to know what kind of company is dealing the cards.

Great Canadian, its investors and executives have been accused of permitting or engaging in harassment, profit skimming, investment fraud, prostitution, bribery, and yes… loansharking. This is a company that at least on the surface appears intent on putting the “organized” into organized crime, and their make-you-an-offer-you-can’t-refuse approach to media relations doesn’t inspire much confidence to the contrary.

And so I challenge my friends in the media to join my little blog in standing up to this bully. Dive headlong into the mud hole; I promise you, it’s deeper than you think.

And if in the end Great Canadian comes out clean, well then, they’ll get the public exoneration they deserve. But if they come out stinking like warmed-over Moosehead, then voters deserve to know exactly what kind of company is financing I-892, and exactly who stands to gain the most from its passage.

In the same rhetorical breath that he announced his failure to qualify I-864 for the November ballot, Tim Eyman promised to come back next year with an even more severe property tax cut proposal. I assume his intention is to tighten the language so that it also impacts districts with levy lid lifts in effect. But I suppose he might even increase the size of the cut, following the pattern he set when I-722 morphed into I-747.

Would Tim be so boldly stupid as to propose a 50% property tax cut?

Probably not. But a 25% property tax cut is stupid enough, as is illustrated by the examples set forth today in the Olympian: “Our Views: Yelm, fire district work for resolution.”

The editorial points out the adverse impact on Yelm residents when Fire District 2 moved its full-time crew from within city limits to a location nearer the center of the district. Before the move, the average response time for Yelm (which accounts for 40 percent of the district’s emergency calls) was 5.8 minutes. It now takes an average of nine minutes to respond to call.

Response times are critical. Every minute counts when a fire ignites. Adding more than three minutes to the average fire call in Yelm is putting lives and property at greater risk.

The editorial lauds Yelm and fire district officials for working to find a resolution — a resolution that will almost surely require more funding. But this would have been impossible if I-864 had cut an additional 25% from the fire district’s budget.

Fire districts rely on local property taxes for 95% of their funding; as much as 90% of their general fund is spent on the salaries of firefighters and paramedics. Next year Tim will ask voters to cut fire service by at least 25%, and require a 60% supermajority for any future increases.

I understand if voters are angry and frustrated, particularly those from middle- and low-income households who have seen their tax burden rise, even as average state and local tax burden has fallen. (Do the math: that means businesses and the wealthy are paying less.)

But voters need to understand that when they vote to decrease local property taxes they are voting to decrease local services… essential services like firefighting and paramedics. It is not an exaggeration to say that in saving tax dollars, I-864 would surely have cost lives.

My hope is that Tim’s failure to generate sufficient support for I-864 is an indication that voters are starting to understand this equation.

I can’t let a Thursday slip by without commenting on Collin Levey’s latest column in the Seattle Times. [Brace for a race between producers and advocates]

Faithfully following the memo from her bosses at Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy, Inc., Collin uses John Kerry’s choice of John Edwards as his running mate as an opportunity to paint the presidential race as a contest between hard working businessmen who create our nation’s wealth (Bush-Cheney) and blood-sucking trial lawyers who enrich themselves at the expense of consumers (Kerry-Edwards.)

Yeah, nice try. Attacking trial lawyers didn’t work when Edwards ran for the Senate, it didn’t work in the primaries, and it won’t work in the general election. In fact, if I were running the right-wing media echo chamber, I’d be careful this tactic didn’t backfire, as an examination of the candidates’ resumes makes Edwards look quite a bit more productive than so-called “producers” like Bush and Cheney.

Collin writes that “George Bush’s and Dick Cheney’s private-sector careers were as business leaders — Cheney at Halliburton and Bush at the Texas Rangers and smallish oil companies.”

Right.

Dick Cheney started his impressive climb up the corporate ladder as a low-level flak in the Nixon Whitehouse, where Donald Rumsfeld took him under his wing. When Rumsfeld became Ford’s chief of staff, he made Cheney one of his deputies. And when Rumsfeld became Secretary of Defense in 1975, Cheney replaced him as chief of staff.

Cheney was downsized out of a job in 1976 when Jimmy Carter completed his hostile takeover, so like many other business leaders, he ran for Congress… and won. There he served until 1988 when Bush the 1st made him Secretary of Defense.

Another hostile takeover in 1992, this time by Bill Clinton, left Cheney jobless once again. And so with absolutely no private sector experience, a political science degree, and nothing but Washington insider credentials on his resume, he of course landed a job as Chairman and CEO of Halliburton, one of the world’s largest oil services and construction companies… and a major military contractor.

As for Bush, well, let’s just say that his only claim to being a “business leader” comes from leading those “smallish oil companies” straight down the toilet.

Bush, the son of a sitting Vice President, was given his stake in the Texas Rangers to help grease the wheels of an effort to secure public financing for a new stadium. After taxpayers agreed to foot the bill, the value of the team dramatically increased, and Bush cashed out, making millions.

As businessmen, the only wealth Bush and Cheney ever produced was millions of dollars of profits for themselves, by cashing in on their Washington connections.

Edwards on the other hand, is a self-made man in the proudest American tradition. The son of a mill worker, and the first in his family to attend college, he achieved wealth and prestige through hard work, determination, and talent. Nobody every gave him a leg up because of who he knew, or which man he called dad.

And finally, I hate to burst your bubble Collin, but law firms are businesses too. And there is no denying that Edwards was a leader in his business.

So to Collin and her right-wing overlords I say “bring it on.” If you want to make this campaign a debate over the candidates’ private sector resumes, I’ll start planning my November 2 victory party now.

Ron Sims deserves a lot of credit for making progressive tax reform the central issue of his campaign. But then it shouldn’t be surprising that such a vociferous defender of Sound Transit would be willing to touch the “third rail” of Washington politics… an income tax.

Ron is holding a “town hall” meeting to discuss these very important issues, and I urge you all to attend. Whether you plan to vote for Ron or not, all of us who care deeply about fixing our state’s cruelly regressive tax structure need to show our support. Ron may not win on this issue, but we sure as hell better make it clear that he doesn’t lose because of it.

Tax Reform & the Economy Town Hall
Ballard Community Center
Saturday, July 10, 2004 – 10:00
Please RSVP to rachel@ronsimsforgovernor.com
For more information: http://www.ronsimsforgovernor.com/

So please join me in the audience Saturday at this town hall meeting, and show the rest of the state’s politicians that if they address the difficult issues they’ll have our support.

I just wanted to give a quick link to Danny Westneat’s column in today’s Seattle Times. [Initiatives can be addictive]

Danny’s column sums up the deep ideological passion behind I-892: Tim Eyman’s need to stay relevant by getting an initiative on the ballot… any initiative.

Tim’s been at this business a long time, and he could see months ago that I-864 was likely a repeat of last year’s I-807, an initiative that didn’t have the popular support or the money to collect nearly enough signatures. And so Tim found himself another initiative, this time with deep-pocketed backers that could virtually assure a place on the ballot and an election season in the limelight.

It didn’t really matter to Tim that much of his base — traditional conservatives — strongly oppose expansion of gambling. He chose to abandon his core supporters rather than face another Eyman-free November.

Tim’s for-profit tax revolt has transformed into a for-profit initiative business. Perhaps progressives should hire him to sponsor an income tax?

When the first reports appeared that the Great Canadian Gaming Corporation was Initiative 892’s (Slots for Tots) largest financial backer, both the company and Tim Eyman were dismissive. Contributions were scattered through a number of “local” subsidiaries in an attempt to hide the money’s foreign origins. But it is no surprise that the company that has the most to gain by I-892’s passage would be eager to bankroll its campaign.

Great Canadian has gradually been consolidating its Washington presence, and today the company announced that it is buying out its remaining partner for $5.4 million (US dollars,) giving it 100% ownership of its casino properties in Algona, Everett, Tukwila, Tacoma and Kent.

Great Canadian dominates the British Columbia gambling industry, and it has made public statements about its intention to replicate that model here. Voters need to understand that I-892 is a blatant attempt by a Canadian company to use Canadian dollars to put an initiative on the Washington ballot that serves its own corporate self-interests.

I-892 is a new low for a once populist initiative process that is increasingly hijacked by monied special interests. And it sets a terrible precedent for future initiative campaigns.

I had an incredibly busy week working the media in preparation for the July 2 signature deadline, and then baking pizzas and drinking beer in celebration of its passing. So I didn’t have time to crack open The Seattle Weekly until its last day on the street.

Knute Berger said the word “fuck.”

I double-checked… I hadn’t accidentally picked up a copy of The Stranger. It really was Knute in the Weekly… although he was just borrowing vocabulary from our foul-mouthed VP, Dick Cheney.

Since starting my blog I’ve received a handful of emails from readers who don’t appreciate my occasional, um… colorful language. And recently this site was rejected by Google AdSense for “excessive profanity.”

Personally, I feel that I use just the right of amount of profanity. Besides, if Dick Cheney can say the word “fuck,” and Knute Berger can say the word “fuck,” I don’t see why I can’t say the word “fuck.”

After all, it’s just a fucking word.

Anyway, nice column on Fahrenheit 9/11, Knute. [“Burn, Baby, Burn.”]

And great use of the word “fuck.”

I just got back from a holiday weekend in Brownsville, Oregon. Two days with no cell phone, no email, no blog, and no internet. I didn’t even read a newspaper.

But though I tried to celebrate the failure of I-864 by spending a couple days forgetting Tim Eyman and his self-serving initiatives, the five-hour road trip each way was grim reminder of what could become of Washington if we were to allow Tim to lead us down the government slashing path that Bill Sizemore carved through the heart of our neighbor to the south.

The first thing I noticed upon crossing the border was the relative state of disrepair of large sections of Interstate 5 compared to the Seattle to Portland stretch. The speed limit was constantly jumping between 50 and 65, depending on the quality of the road surface, or the semi-permanent construction zones that seemed unchanged from last year’s trip.

Not that the limits seemed to matter; cars were speeding with impunity. During each two-hour Oregon leg of my round-trip journey, I did not see a single state trooper. A couple local sheriffs had set up revenue generating speed traps, but this hardly seemed a deterrent.

Now I know many people would consider the dearth of radar guns a blessing, and I freely admit that I generally drive 5 to 10 miles over the limit at highway speeds. But it is a mixed blessing at best when I’m traveling with my daughter in the car, and some asshole in an Expedition nearly runs me off the road while weaving through traffic at 90 miles-per-hour.

Local residents confirmed my anecdotal observations, and the cuts weren’t just limited to road maintenance and state troopers. From underfunded public schools to hospital closures to a host of other public services we take for granted, quality of life has declined significantly for many families in communities across the state.

Tim Eyman wants us to demand that our state and local governments do more with less, but Oregon is a harsh lesson in reality. When you cut revenues beyond the bone, governments will do less with less.

In the end, that’s the biggest reason why I-864 failed to generate support: voters understood that they weren’t just being asked to cut taxes… they were being asked to cut essential services.

Tim Eyman arrived at the Secretary of State’s office riding in the back of a pickup truck like a dog… not the grand entrance one might expect from Washington’s self-proclaimed “initiative king.” This was no royal carriage, and there was certainly no throng of loyal subjects waiting to cheer him on.

Over the past few days Tim had repeatedly emailed the 3600 people on his list, asking them to show their support by joining him at the press conference this morning. But as he peered out the canopy window, all he saw were the usual members of the press, the loyal opposition, and angry scowls of determined librarians from the Timberland Regional Library.

It was exactly this kind of inability to energize his base that had led me to call Initiative 864 dead a few weeks back. Tim lacked the money to hire paid signature gatherers in force, and has for years failed to display the motivational and organizational skills necessary to lead a volunteer petition drive. I couldn’t see how, under those circumstances, he could possibly gather 200,000 signatures.

Still, I admit a pang of anxiety as he and the Fagans dropped the tailgate and started to unload their cargo. At times, I can be nearly as arrogant as Tim… had I underestimated his grass roots support? His political savvy? His intelligence? His fashion sense?

Tim was wearing sandals with a business suit! What other shocking surprise might he have in store today?

But all my self-doubt was quickly erased when out from the truck came a folding table adorned with stacks of petitions. This was clearly a prop. I-864 had failed.

The rest of the festivities were fairly anticlimactic. Tim pulled out the usual bullshit chart showing the steep rise in property tax revenues over the past 25 years. (As Steve Zemke says, it’s kind of like whining that candy bars no longer cost a dime.) Then he sat down behind the table and told a few lies before disingenuously opening the floor to questions he had no intention of answering.

When Tim was done, the librarians took their well deserved moment in spotlight, placards in hand, as the TV cameras taped interviews of I-864 opponents. I say “well deserved” because librarians across the state played a key role in defeating I-864, by seeking out paid signature gatherers and countering their lies with the truth. These were some of the so-called “union thugs” Tim has complained about.

Now, I joked about the librarians in my previous blog, and was immediately chastised via email for perpetuating stereotypes. If I did so, I did it lovingly. (And, well… because I thought it was funny.) The truth is, the librarians were an inspiration; this wasn’t a top-down political campaign, but a self-organized effort of dedicated individuals committed not only to saving their own jobs, but to saving the libraries on which we all rely.

Of course the librarians were not alone in opposing I-864. Firefighters undertook a similar effort, as did the Council of County and City Employees through their very effective Voter Education Committee. And the Association of Washington Cities deserves special credit for the tremendous job they did mobilizing their members to get accurate information out to local media as to devastating impact I-864 would have on public services.

And as long as I’m doing a post mortem, I’d like to take a moment to talk about the media.

I have been known, in the words of Knute Berger, to “kick the crap out of the news media.” Why? Because often, they deserve it. (And, it’s fun.)

But I must admit that both I-864 and I-892 have received the most thorough and informative news coverage of any Eyman initiative in recent years. Reporters and editorialists didn’t wait to see if these initiatives qualified for the ballot… they weighed in early and often, ensuring that the handful of voters who still read newspapers had more to work with than Eyman’s sound bites.

And by the way, I genuinely appreciate the way they put up with me, my badgering press releases, and my occasional wild rants.

But enough backslapping for now. I’ll have more to write about I-864, but first I’m going to take a couple days to drink a few beers, watch some fireworks, and relax.

Happy Independence Day.

As first predicted here over three weeks ago [Stick a fork in it, Eyman’s done] Initiative 864 has failed to collect enough signatures to qualify for the ballot! Snatching failure from the jaws of defeat, Timmy inexplicably held a press conference to announce that he had collected about 150,000 signatures, well short of of the 198,000 needed.

As Tim announced the number, a gathering throng of angry librarians was suddenly whipped into a bacchanalian frenzy of joyful celebration. Okay… one of them clapped. But they looked happy. In a quiet, thoughtful way.

I’ll post a more detailed report later in the day.

Tim Eyman has scheduled a news conference for 10AM at the Secretary of State’s office, and asked his supporters to join him as he turns in petitions for I-864. I still don’t believe he has enough signatures to get on the ballot, but we’ll know soon enough.

Anyway, I’m setting off for Olympia bright and early, and will report back as soon as I return.

I’m not entirely sure what to make of Collin Levey’s muddled disquisition on Hollywood, liberals, and anti-Semitism: “Spiritual accessorizing in an era of religious conflict.”

While I enjoy taunting her as a cog in the right-wing propaganda machine, I have to admit that she’s not a bad writer. But this week’s column just isn’t up to her usual standard of ruthless clarity, and since I haven’t been keeping up on the WSJ op/ed pages, deciphering her thesis was all the more difficult.

I believe what Collin is trying to say is that Democrats and their hedonistic liberal backers are anti-Semites, and thus Jews should vote Republican for a change.

Needless to say, I have a couple of problems with her thesis. I myself am a liberal, Democrat-voting Jew… although few people who know me would classify me as a hedonist (with the possible exception of the Hassidic Rabbi next door.)

And I doubt anybody would consider me an anti-Semite (again, with the possible exception of the Hassidic Rabbi next door.) Her attempt to brand liberals and Democrats as anti-Semitic or anti-Israel based on the comments or actions of one individual or another, is at the very least, irresponsible.

In fact, (parenthetically) speaking of the Hassidic Rabbi next door… after accusing us lefties of promoting the absurd notion of an international Jewish conspiracy, Collin actually reinforces this false premise herself:

Jews as a group vote overwhelmingly Democrat.

Jews, as a group, don’t do anything, let alone vote as a block. As a secular Jew raised in a Reformed synagogue, I have little in common with my Hassidic neighbors except maybe a repertoire of colorful Yiddish swear words and a taste for Eastern European Jewish cuisine. And with the Sephardim who seem to dominate the Jewish community here, I don’t even share that.

Indeed, compared to an Orthodox Seattle Sephardim, I have more in common culturally with a New York Irishman (not the least of which being an unfortunate fondness for Irish women.)

The point is, there is no Jewish cabal, no Jewish vote, and no Jewish leaders (at least none I’ve every voted for.) In fact, the very existence of the “Jewish neocons” Collin mentions, contradicts her characterization of us as uniform political block.

While I agree with Collin that anti-Semitism continues to persist, I’m not sure she fully appreciates its subtle insinuation into the debate over support for Israel, nor that she understands the difference between “anti-Semitism,” and good old fashioned religious “Jew hatred.” (The former is a political tool. I suggest Hannah Arendt’s definitive work “Antisemitism.”)

Collin claims “liberal” college campuses are veering towards the plight of Palestinians, and compares this to the staunch support for Israel from the Christian right, implying that Jewish Democrats don’t know who their real friends are.

Speaking as someone who is sympathetic to the aspirations of both Israelis and Palestinians (and hostile to the leaders of both,) I think Collin presents an intellectually dishonest choice. And she ignores the fact that the strong support some fundamentalist Christians show towards Israel stems from a profound, doctrinal hatred of the Jewish people.

Unlike most Jews, I have read The New Testament; as sequels go, I found it rather boring (“Jesus this” and “Jesus that.”) But Revelations is, well… a revelation. The prophesy requires the Jews to return to Israel and rebuild the Temple before the Messiah can return. Of course, in the resulting Armageddon, two-thirds of the Jews are destroyed, but well, you can’t have everything.

So while it’s hard to describe the Christian right’s staunch support for Israel as anti-Semitic, a 66% mortality rate certainly doesn’t come across as particularly Jew-friendly.

I’ve always found it offensive when politicians woo Jewish votes by touting their support for Israel. I’m a Jewish American, not an Israeli. Hell… 49% of Israelis don’t even support the Sharon government, why should I?

If this is the best the right wing media echo chamber can do, the Rs are going to have a tough November.