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KING-5 TV just released the first head-to-head poll in WA’s 8th Congressional District race between Republican incumbent Rep. Dave Reichert and Democratic challenger Darcy Burner… and I’m guessing both sides are going to claim they’re thrilled with the results.

According to the poll of 609 registered voters conducted by SurveyUSA, Reichert leads Burner 54% to 41% with only 6% undecided.

So if Reichert is leading by an apparently comfortable 13 point margin, why did one longtime Democratic politico ecstatically email me that these numbers are “freakin’ fantastic”…?

I’m guessing the biggest reason for Democrats to get excited is that Burner’s 41 percent is damn impressive considering she entered this race with zero name recognition, and has only just begun to make her first tentative forays into paid media. The poll was conducted 8/22 – 8/23, only a week after Burner made her first, small TV buy; her first direct mail piece is only just now reaching voters.

Much of Reichert’s lead can surely be attributed to a huge advantage in name ID — which must register a stratospheric ninety-something percent for the former sheriff and self-proclaimed Green River Killer catcher. It is also an advantage that is surely exaggerated by the fact that the poll did not screen for “likely voters”; this screen won’t come until after the primary.

Burner supporters can also be buoyed by the crosstabs, which show only 35% support for President Bush, significantly lower than SurveyUSA’s national average. Those who approve of President Bush’s job performance choose Reichert by an overwelming 93% to 4% margin. Those who disapprove choose Burner 66% to 27%.

The task for Burner seems clear. She needs to improve her name ID while persuading voters to identify Reichert with President Bush’s failed policies. Given the time and the resources, both can be achieved, and fortunately for Burner she has plenty of both.

Of course this is only a single poll, and not necessarily one of the most reliable. As I’ve previously pointed out, many respectable news agencies like CNN and the Associated Press won’t even report on robo-polls like SurveyUSA’s. (Let’s face it, nobody really believes that only 6 percent of voters are undecided at this point in the race. Many undecided voters simply hang up on robo-polls.) The fact is, KING-5 contracts with SurveyUSA because it’s cheap.

That said, one thing seems pretty obvious: considering the dynamics of the race and the unique political climate this year, 41 percent in August absolutely puts Burner within striking distance for November. Reichert supporters can take solace in the 13 point margin if they want, but I’m guessing their internal numbers aren’t nearly as comforting, and I guarantee the race will narrow as voters learn more about the candidates.

We’re off to the races.

Both Darcy Burner and Peter Goldmark have shared details of their internal polls (here and here,) yet their opponents, Dave Reichert and Cathy McMorris have remained silent.

Hmm. I wonder why?

Via Swing State Project, Amy Walter of Cook Political Report explains:

Publicly released polls taken in individual districts also tell a pretty ugly story for the incumbent party in Congress. Since the beginning of this year, we have seen 38 polls released by Democrats, or Democratic-related groups, while we have seen just five public polls released by Republicans or Republican-related groups. And, when you look at the individual polls, it is easy to understand why Democrats are much more willing to disclose their numbers.

Democrats have released polling taken in 27 districts held by a Republican. Of those, 22 incumbents were under 50 percent of the vote against their Democratic opponent and 10 incumbents were either behind or within the margin of error. Republicans have only released three polls in Republican held seats – two of which showed the Republican under 50 percent (one was Rep. Bob Ney who announced this week that he was not running for re-election).

And with Burner on the air early, pumping up her positives and name ID unopposed, it’s awfully unlikely Reichert’s gonna find a more flattering poll than the one he commissioned in July — and quietly sat on.

In its quest to reach a hipper, younger audience, the Seattle Weekly (editorial motto: “Under New Management”) has started running the syndicated advice column Ask a Mexican.

Hmm.

When I first heard about Ask a Mexican a few months back on NPR’s On the Media, I thought it sounded like an amusing, edgy and oddly informative effort to combat racial stereotypes. But now that I’ve had the chance to read it in the Weekly… not so much.

Maybe it was just an off week. Or perhaps I just couldn’t handle the incongruity of seeing such an un-Brewsteresque column in the pages of the once venerable Weekly. But rather than combatting hateful stereotyping it just struck me as an opportunity for the questioners to luxuriate in it under the guise of enlightened sarcasm.

Writer Gustavo Arellano keeps his sense of humor as he slaps down the questions with snark, wit, and big wallop of reality. But the questions… oy. Questions like “What is it about the word ‘illegal’ that Mexicans don’t understand?” or “Why do Mexicans love public rest rooms so much?” Rather than encouraging dialog, the whole column comes off as an opportunity for sensitive liberals to have a good laugh at the expense of ignorant bigots — all the while giving the bigots a public forum.

But what do I know? The Weekly’s new publishers are successful professionals, after all. I mean… they even have focus groups.

So rather than criticize, I’m choosing to follow their lead and ride the wave of ambiguously self-hating ethnic stereotyping that surely leads to a younger, more lucrative demographic. And so I’m pleased to announce the launch of HA’s newest weekly feature: Ask a Secular Jew Who Married a Shiksa and Lives Near Two Orthodox Synagogues.

Here’s how it works. If you have a question about Jews or Judaism, and you think a secular Jew who married a shiksa and lives near two orthodox synagogues might have the answer, just ask away in the comment thread of this post. I’ll answer one or two of the most ridiculous and blatantly antisemitic questions in next week’s column.

All I ask in return is that you please show a little decorum and follow the rules. For example, I will not answer simple, Jew-baiting death threats. However, if, for example, like one anonymous email correspondent you were to ask “Why don’t you die you Christ-killing, motherfucking jewboy bastard?”… well, that would be acceptable… as long as you remember to include the question mark.

I look forward to your questions, and eventually, a lucrative syndication deal.

The race is tight, so the DCCC has extended its deadline on its “Candidate for Change” poll:

Only a handful of votes are separating the ten great candidates at the top of the list right now — Patrick Murphy, Joe Sestak, Tammy Duckworth, Patty Wetterling, Lois Murphy, Ron Klein, Mary Jo Kilroy, Darcy Burner and Zack Space — but others are well within reach.

So if you haven’t already done so please vote Darcy Burner now… and while you’re there, it certainly couldn’t hurt to write in Peter Goldmark. (That’s what I did.)

The top three finishers will receive the following extra support:

• A fundraising email from Democratic House Leader Nancy Pelosi or DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel to our list;
• A phone bank run out of the Democratic National Headquarters for their campaign;
• The feature spot on our Web site to get their message out, with a link to their campaign contribution page;
• An online chat with the DCCC community to exchange ideas on the campaign and the future of our country.

This will be a tight race, and every extra little bit of support helps. Plus, this is a great opportunity to show once again that Washington state has one of the strongest netroots movements in the nation.

Speaking of which, the MyDD/DailyKos/Swing State Project August fundraising drive is in full swing, and look which Netroots Endorsed congressional candidate has raised the most money over the past 48 hours. Way to go.

Apparently, the whole blogging craze has pretty much run its course, because other than me there wasn’t a single active, political blogger on the panel last night. (Political bloggers are so July.)

Joining me were non-bloggers Sandeep and Laura, former bloggers Will and Carl, and non-political blogger Gavin. So of course we led off our conversation with the biggest political issue of the day: Snakes on a Plane! No really… tune in and listen to how we cleverly connect this seemingly unrelated topic to Ned Lamont’s victory over Joe Lieberman in the Connecticut primary. Other topics of discussion included Mike!™ McGavick’s career path through Washington D.C.’s lucrative revolving door, the Seattle Storm’s imminent move to Oklahoma City after their fan support collapses in the wake of their disappointing playoff loss, the John Bircher behind WA’s estate tax repeal initiative, Will’s manly love for John Edwards, replacing the Viaduct with nothin’, the GOP’s intentional non-grammatical use of the term "Democrat" Party instead of the proper "Democratic" Party, Kyle Taylor Lucas’s strong challenge to faux-Democratic Sen. Tim Sheldon in the primary, and the hypocritical, mean-spirited Rev. Joe Fuiten.

The show is 53:49, and is available here as a 41.1 MB MP3. Please visit PodcastingLiberally.com for complete archives and RSS feeds.

[Recorded live at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Special thanks to Confab creators Gavin and Richard for producing the show.]

Alaska Governor Frank Murkowski involuntarily retired yesterday when he came in third in his state’s Republican primary, polling just 19 percent of the vote.

So… um… where are all the headlines about crazed, right-wing extremists taking over the Republican Party? My God… the GOP rank and file tossed out an incumbent! Where’s the outrage? Where are the claims that Republican nominee Sarah Palin is the “al-Qaeda candidate”…?

Oh, and another difference between the reaction to this primary and the one in Connecticut:

Murkowski shook Palin’s hand in the middle of a crowd of her supporters.

“Congratulations, you’ve got my support. I’ll do everything to see that you’re elected,” Murkowski told her.

That’s because Murkowski is a Republican. But then, judging from his refusal to honor the will of Democratic voters, so is Joe Lieberman.

Gov. Christine Gregoire’s positive approval ratings hold steady for the second straight month, and Markos is impressed:

Christine Gregoire (D) of Washington continues to impress at 51/45. She began her controversial tenure at 34/58, but she is steadily establishing herself as an effective governor and the people of her state are coming around.

The Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight (and every Tuesday), 8PM at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. I’m looking forward to a cool Manny’s and some crisp conversation.

Washington liberals will also be drinking tonight in Vancouver and the Tri-Cities. Here’s a full run down of WA’s ten Drinking Liberally chapters:

	Where:	When:	Next Meeting:
Burien:	Mick Kelly’s Irish Pub, 435 SW 152nd St	Fourth Wednesday of each month, 7:00 pm onward	August 23
Kirkland:	Valhalla Bar & Grill, 8544 122nd Ave NE	Every Thursday, 7:00 pm onward	August 24
Monroe:	Eddie’s Trackside Bar and Grill, 214 N Lewis St	Second Wednesday of each month, 7:00 PM onward	September 13
Olympia:	The Tumwater Valley Bar and Grill, 4611 Tumwater Valley Drive South	First and third Monday of each month, 7:00-9:00 pm	September 4
Seattle:	Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Ave E	Every Tuesday, 8:00 pm onward	August 22
Spokane:	Red Lion BBQ & Pub, 126 N Division St	Every Wednesday, 7:00 pm	August 23
Tacoma:	Meconi’s Pub, 709 Pacific Ave	Every Wednesday, 8:00 pm onward	August 23
Tri-Cities:	Atomic Ale, 1015 Lee Blvd, Richland	Every Tuesday, 7:00 pm onward	August 22
Vancouver:	Hazel Dell Brew Pub, 8513 NE Highway 99	Second and fourth Tuesday of each month, 7:00 pm onward	August 22
Walla Walla:	The Green Lantern, 1606 E Isaacs Ave	First Friday of each month, 8:00 pm onward	September 1

Peter Goldmark has another diary in the recommended list on Daily Kos today. Help keep it there by recommending his diary now.

While you’re at it, there are a couple other things you can do for Goldmark. Tomorrow is the last day to vote in the DCCC’s “Candidate for Change” contest. Vote for Darcy Burner and write in Peter Goldmark. And then when you’re done, give them both some money.

After only a month on the air and a few weeks on the ground actively campaigning, US Sen. Maria Cantwell has widened her net approval rating from a mere 5 to 6 point margin in June and July to a healthy 17 point margin in August.

At 55% to 38%, Sen. Cantwell not only sits comfortably above the 50 percent approval mark where incumbents want to be, but also matches her highest approval rating over the past year in the monthly SurveyUSA poll. By comparison, both her approval and net approval ratings rank Sen. Cantwell in the middle of the pack amongst senators nationally, and several points above WA’s Sen. Patty Murray, who easily won reelection in 2004.

But a look at the cross tabs is even more instructive. Sen. Cantwell’s approval amongst self-identified “liberal” voters jumped from 60% to 34% in July to 76% to 18% in August… a stunning 32 point increase in net approval margin in only a single month, and the best approve/disapprove numbers she’s scored over the past 15. Sen. Cantwell’s bounce amongst “Democrats” is nearly as pronounced, climbing from a 62% to 31% margin to 73% to 19%.

The conclusion: ninety days before the election, Sen. Cantwell’s base has come home.

According to SurveyUSA, Sen. Cantwell’s approval rating now sits at or above the magic 50% mark amongst both men and women, and in all regions, age groups, education levels and races except Asian. She enjoys 52% approval with independents and 63% with moderates, while her disapproval amongst Republicans and conservatives is significantly softer than her approval amongst Democrats and liberals respectively.

Sure, this is just a single poll in a single month, and a lot can change between now and November, but none of the trends look very good for Republican challenger Mike!™ McGavick right now. His campaign tried to make hay about him “closing the gap” in recent polls, but in truth, it was Sen. Cantwell’s numbers that slid while Mike!™ couldn’t gain enough traction to climb above 40 percent. And the most recent Rasmussen Poll, taken only a week after Sen. Cantwell’s first ads started airing, showed the trend reversing with Sen. Cantwell retaking a double-digit lead. No wonder in its latest “Balance of Power” scorecard of the US Senate, the Republican-leaning Rasmussen listed Sen. Cantwell’s seat as safe Democratic.

Mike!™ has been widely touted as the Republicans best shot at taking down a Democratic incumbent. Hmm. Looking at current trends, that doesn’t say much for the GOP’s prospects this November, huh?

Darcy Burner was the only House challenger chosen to speak at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this weekend. Wanna know more about the next congresswoman from WA’s 8th Congressional District? Watch the video. (Via MyDD)

Have you ever wanted to get down and party with Sen. Maria Cantwell and some of the state’s most prominent elected officials? Well tonight’s your chance, 6PM at the Tractor Tavern in Ballard.

Sen. Patty Murray, Rep. Jay Inslee, Rep. Jim McDermott, Rep. Adam Smith, King County Executive Ron Sims and Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels will all be there, along with musical guests Will Wakefield & The Congress Hotel, The Bradbury Press, and Ellen Says No. General admission tickets are $25.00.

Hope to see you there.

The Seattle Times reports today that 39 state legislative candidates — nearly a third of all races — are running unopposed this November, a trend that has been increasing over time.

Democratic Party Chairman Dwight Pelz says it’s nothing to fret over. “I wouldn’t say people should worry,” he said. “I think in Washington state, Democrats and Republicans are competing on the issues and are posing viable alternatives to the people.”

But he speaks from a position of comfort. Most of the unopposed candidates are Democrats, and the party already controls the state House, Senate and governor’s office.

Hmm.

As much as I like and respect Pelz, I can’t entirely agree with him on this one. Don’t get me wrong, I much prefer the status quo — a Democratic majority — over the alternative. But the danger in institutionalizing the current status quo is that we risk creating a party of status quo Democrats more focused on consolidating power than exercising it.

Still, I’m not all that worried, because I fully expect this trend to reverse itself in coming years as the netroots and other people-powered political forces begin to transform the Democratic Party.

This transformation will occur on two fronts. First, I absolutely believe we need to bring the “50-State Strategy” home to Washington state and field candidates in every legislative district in every election. Organizations like Progressive Majority will make this task easier as their efforts start to put progressive electeds into local governments in traditionally red districts. And as the netroots take a greater hold on the Democratic Party, this strategy will gain official support as well.

The second front is the Democratic primary itself. I can think of at least a half dozen Democratic legislators in Seattle alone who deserve a strong primary challenge from a committed progressive determined to fight for the values and interests of their constituents over the current same-old, same-old that tends to dominate Olympia. And as the netroots grow and we become an indispensable part of the Democratic message machine, I fully expect us to harness our power and influence to strategically target incumbent Democrats in safe districts.

It is common for my critics on the right to dismiss me and my fellow bloggers as tools of the Democratic Party, but they’ve got it exactly backwards. The Democratic Party is our tool… the people’s tool — as it should be — and we intend to use it to help elect candidates who are willing and able to enact a truly progressive agenda.

So to those 39 legislative candidates running unopposed, and the many more facing only token opposition in traditionally safe districts… enjoy it while it lasts, because nothing — not even incumbency — lasts forever.

By the way, Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth“ is now the third highest grossing documentary ever.

From Sunday’s Washington Post:

The traditional fundraising advantage held by incumbent lawmakers — which Republicans have regarded as a safety wall in their effort to keep control of Congress — has eroded in many closely contested House races, as many Democratic challengers prove competitive in the race for cash.

In a year of bad omens for the GOP, the latest batch of disclosure forms filed with the Federal Election Commission offers one more: Incumbency no longer means that embattled Republican representatives can expect to overwhelm weakly funded Democratic challengers with massive spending on advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts.

This trend is nowhere more apparent than in Washington’s 8th Congressional District where challenger Darcy Burner has outraised incumbent Rep. Dave Reichert two straight quarters. The Burner campaign has reportedly raised over $1.3 million thus far — more than any other 8th District Democrat at this point in the election cycle — with the overwhelming majority coming from individual donors.

Burner needs to raise another $1 million between now and November in order to have the resources to respond to the negative attacks that will inevitably come, so if you haven’t already contributed to her campaign, please give now.

Of course, even if Burner hits her target she will likely be outspent by her opponent, but not by nearly the margin necessary to drown out her message. Reichert had a helluva headstart, but he’s been struggling to raise cash even as his race has grown into one of the most competitive in the nation. Part of Reichert’s problem is that unlike his opponent, he’s simply too lazy to do the hard work necessary to raise money from rank and file individuals. (Imagine the Sheriff spending six hours on the phone, asking constituents for money.) But part of Reichert’s fundraising problem is that it’s simply not a good year to be a Republican in Washington state.

We all know President Bush isn’t too popular these days — especially in Reichert’s 8th district — a fact brought home by a rare presidential visit that only netted the congressman about $240,000. How disappointing was this total? Well, by comparison, a similar campaign stop by President Bush on behalf of 13-term Republican Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr. (FL-22) brought in a tidy $800,000.

It’s hard to know for sure, but it’s quite possible that Bush’s visit may have actually raised less money for Reichert than the backlash raised for Burner. Ouch.

Either way, one thing seems perfectly clear… the traditional advantages of incumbency don’t seem to be so overwhelming for Dave Reichert this year.