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It looks like Sen. John McCain, the GOP’s nominee apparent, has managed to squeak out a narrow victory in Washington state’s Republican caucus… but there’s not much for McCain to cheer about in the numbers:

Huckabee	23.7 %
McCain	25.5 %
Paul	20.6 %
Romney	16.5 %
Other	1.1 %
Uncommitted	12.7 %
(87.2% of precincts reporting.)

You’d think just days after McCain’s Super Duper Tuesday victories, the GOP’s putative nominee might be able to secure a tad more than a quarter of the vote in what is, let’s face it, not exactly hillbilly territory, yet he barely even managed to edge out rapture-ready Mike Huckabee. But that’s not the worst of it. 16.5% of WA Republicans caucused for Mitt Romney despite having dropped out of the race, while 21% went for Ron Paul despite, well, him being Ron Paul. And 12.7% of Republican caucus goers — some of the party’s most dedicated and active members — proved so disaffected that they pledged “uncommitted”. Way to rally around your nominee folks.

I know national polls have consistently shown McCain to be the GOP’s most viable candidate, but it’s hard to imagine a Republican victory in November without an enthusiastic base. And with a few points of turnout differential enough to make the difference in close races, down-ticket Republicans should be feeling awfully nervous right about now. (Yeah, I’m talkin’ to you Dave Reichert.)

Even in the Republican caucus it looks like Democrats came out the winner.

The thought popped in to my head as I walked home from a post-caucus meal Pike Place Market with my friend and fellow blogger Carl Ballard…

We heard about the folks who were so depressed over Bush’s victory in ’04, that they threatened to move to Canada. Liberal folks. It got me thinking…

Where will the Republicans go? Will they run away to Brazil or Argentina, like the Nazis did? I can’t think of a country that does for disaffected Republicans what Canada does for depressed Democrats.

Is there a right-wind junta that will shelter them? A fascist father-figure to idolize, much as William F. Buckley idolized Spanish dictator Francisco Franco? Have they no place to call their own when Barack Obama (or HRC) put their hand on the Bible January 20th, 2009?

I’m stumped.

The official results are pouring in and they back up the anecdotal reports from the caucus floor. Barack Obama now leads Hillary Clinton by a 2 to 1 margin, 67% to 32%, with 57% of precincts reporting. Obama’s support isn’t just deep, it is broad, with the Illinois senator leading the delegate count in every county reporting thus far, most by better than 60%.

Meanwhile, similar results are coming out of the Nebraska Democratic caucus, where Obama now leads 67-32 with 74% of precincts reporting. The Clinton camp talked down expectations heading into this weekend’s contests. Good thing too.

But perhaps the bigger news coming out of WA today was the size of the turnout; preliminary projections suggest over 200,000 people caucused with the Democrats today, more than twice the previous record set in 2004. That’s simply amazing, and aside from the complaints from the whiners at Slog, I think it’s a testament to value of the caucus system. Yeah sure, it was hot and messy and crowded and confused and inconvenient and noisy… but that’s the way democracy should be, as opposed to sitting at your kitchen table alone with a Bic and beer, picking the candidate whose ads you disliked the least or whose name you’ve heard the most times.

And on the Republican side… well… I haven’t heard much from the Republican side. With 16% of precincts reporting Huckabee and McCain are neck and neck, with Paul not far behind. No official word yet on turnout, but anecdotal reports cite it as “moderate” at best. Nationwide, Democrats have turned out over Republicans by about a two to one margin; that says a lot about how excited the two parties are about their respective candidates.

Now if only we still had a local liberal talker on the air tonight, instead of just relying on these damn blogs…

UPDATE [7:15PM]:
Obama now leads Clinton 67-31, with 94% of precincts counted. The final in Nebraska was 65-33, and Obama leads now leads in Louisiana 53-39 with 45% reporting. That’s a clean sweep for Obama, and by big margins.

UPDATE [7:35PM]:
With 37.1% of precincts reporting: Huckabee 26.4%, McCain 22.9%, Paul 20.3%. Not surprising from a state GOP that once went for Pat Robertson.

“Sweet baby jeebus, kill me now.”

I think I said those words at about 2:05pm. That is, I said them for the first time at 2:05pm. I said it a lot today, as I recall.

Unlike any of the other blog posts you’ve read about today’s caucus, none of them have my perspective. Sure, they participated in their neighborhood caucus…

But did they run their neighborhood caucus?

No.

I learned a few things:

1.) I really, really, should have gone to the caucus training.

2.) The Labor Temple is stuffy as hell.

3.) “We’ll have plenty of room” is not a phrase I’ll ever use again.

The main hall at the Labor Temple, where everyone congregated before splitting up into small precinct groups, is big. But it is not big enough for all the Democrats who showed up. Not by a long shot.

When my precinct gathered in our assigned meeting area, I found myself sitting at a folding table facing a sixty people. These people had already been kept waiting for some time in another cramped room, so they were getting cranky. What’s more, the script I was given by my legislative district was tough to weed through. Fuck, us Democrats make this shit complicated, and that caucus math? Fuhgitaboutit.

But the folks ended up being really nice people. They were my neighbors, after all! Belltown is home to rich older folks and really poor people who live in public housing. Not many in between. But we’re all Democrats, and we’re all sick to death of the fuckwit in the White House, so together we meet.

People really do care about politics, and Democrats really do love our country. Sticking it out with an ill-prepared dorkwad like myself in a stuffy room for an hour is proof enough.

(My favorite goof-up of the afternoon: I searched for five minutes for the piece of paper that would tell me how many delegates we were going to award, only to find that it’s printed on the outside of the fucking manila envelope they gave me. Ouch.)

As Sandeep Kaushik would say, the “juice” is totally behind the Democrats right now. It’s going to take a whole lot of swift boating to tear down either one of our candidates, so they better start running those “he’s a Muslim” ads and those “she’s a bitch” TV spots right away, since clearly they can’t win this one on the issues.

If I was a Republican, I would be pissing my Dockers right about now.

Just got back from my precinct caucus (37th LD, Precinct 1652.) 3 delegates for Obama, 1 for Clinton. I informally surveyed the other precincts in my location, most of which had more delegates, and 4 to 1 Obama seemed to be the average.

Our caucus location was simply overwhelmed, with every precinct running out of sign-in sheets. 49 people caucused in my precinct, more than twice what I saw in 2004, which had been by far the most crowded caucus I’d ever attended; the chart for calculating delegate apportionment only went up to 25, so we had to do the math to determine the results. It was messy and disorganized — we had to wait for the custodian to open up classrooms because the cafeteria was stuffed to over-flowing — and incorrect instructions were repeatedly delivered… but then democracy is messy, with or without the capital “D”.

More later, but first I want to urge all of you to report in the comment thread on the outcome of your own caucus, Democratic or Republican. Let’s see if we can get a good snapshot of the the results ahead of the official release.

UPDATE:
Geov and Lee and I all decided to post at around the same time, so I bumped my post back to the top, because hell… it’s my goddamn blog. Reports are coming in, and it was uniformly HUGE turnout everywhere, and it looks like a rout for Obama in the making.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
It sure does look like a rout for Obama. Reports are now coming in from Eastern Washington, where Obama also appears to be running strong. 70-percent statewide wouldn’t be surprising.

UPDATE, UPDATE, UPDATE:
It occurred to me that as the whole nation watches the Washington state caucus today, there isn’t a single local talk radio show on the air tonight where we can discuss the results amongst ourselves, anywhere on the local dial.

My fellow bloggers have posted “An Open Letter to 710-KIRO“, asking you to sign on and join them in protesting the cancellation of Seattle’s only local liberal talker… me. I’m told they are approaching their goal of gathering 1000 signatures, but it occurs to me that if you really want to see local progressive talk back on the airwaves somewhere in this market, it might be more symbolic if they gather exactly 1090. I’m just sayin’.

Easily over a thousand people showed up at my North Seattle caucus sites (in the 46th LD), split up between a church and a school near Northgate. Our precinct (46-2280) had 8 delegates, which started out 6 to 2 for Obama and stayed that way after a fairly intense debate between the two sides to woo over the half-dozen or so people who signed in uncommitted. After the first tally, I asked for a clarification on whether or not there were even enough uncommitteds to alter the delegate count, but that failed. For some reason, the precinct captain thought that the uncommitteds would be more interested in trying to convince more people to be uncommitted (so that there would be an uncommitted delegate) than in choosing a side. The uncommitteds were rightfully baffled by this as was everyone else. Anyway, 30 wasted minutes later, the uncommitteds (and maybe one or two others) re-voted and it was still 6 to 2.

In 2004, I went to the caucus and it was a zoo, with far more people than expected. In my precinct alone, over a dozen people showed up.

Today, in my Fremont precinct, 104 people voted.

It was like that in the other half-dozen precincts in our building, too. The turnout was astonishing. Anecdotally, most of the people I talked with had never been to a caucus before. Aside from the neighbor who’s had a Ron Paul yard sign up for nearly a year (I assume he was at the Republican caucus), I’m not sure who could have even been left in our nine-square-block precinct that wasn’t at the Democratic caucus. Apparently it’s been like that all over the city.

At least in Fremont, we overwhelmingly voted for Obama (84 of 104 in our precinct, to 11 for Clinton). In each precinct, Obama was getting four, five, or six delegates to one for Clinton. If that’s at all representative, it’s a landslide of epic proportions for Obama.

One more thing: did anyone else notice that when you went to the wa-democrats.com (as opposed to .org) web site today, as many folks looking for caucus sites undoubtably did, it took you to the web page of the Washington State Republican Party? What kind of shit is that?

SurveyUSA has released a new Washington state primary and caucus poll. The poll was conducted Thursday and Friday, and after Mitt Romney’s surrender.

I take a more detailed look at the poll here, but the take home message is pretty simple. Barak Obama should win big over Hillary Clinton in the caucus today, and probably in Tuesday’s (February 19) beauty contest as well.

Likewise, John McCain should easily win in the caucus as well as in Tuesday’s primary. The more interesting race today will be for second place—Ron Paul doesn’t trail Mike Huckabee by much among those who plan to caucus.

Obama. I think. But I’ll give the Clinton supporters every chance to persuade me.

That’s the great thing about a precinct caucus; it’s one of those rare opportunities for you and your neighbors to get together, roll up your sleeves, and get yourselves elbow deep in the nitty-gritty of American democracy. So get yourself off your butt and head out to your caucus: 1PM today; you can find your caucus location here.

I’ll blog on my experience later this afternoon, and you can hear my preview on Bill Scher’s LiberalOasis Radio Show on WHMP in Northhampton MA.

Those recurring charges:

(This and some sixty other media clips from the past week in politics are now posted at Hominid Views.)

(Photo courtesy NPI)

Wow. I guess Clay Bennett is right. We really do need a new arena. That is, as long as Barack Obama is playing there, instead of the Sonics.

According to press reports Obama packed Key Arena with as many as 20,000 people, while thousands more were turned away from the door, in what was likely the largest crowd for a political candidate in the 16 years I’ve lived in Seattle. Compare that to the estimated 5,000 people who crowded Pier 30 for a glimpse of Hillary Clinton last night, or the hundreds of enthusiastic Republicans likely to show up at the Westin tonight for John McCain, and you get a good sense of where the excitement lies, at least in our blue corner of the nation. NPI has more here, here and here.

I’m thinking it’s gonna be a big day tomorrow for Obama. How big, could help determine the course of the campaign as pundits and voters fish for a clue as to which way the momentum is swinging after Super Tuesday, and by how much.

Clinton:

Obama:

McCain:

This is an open thread, beyotches.

I was planning to live blog last night’s Hillary Clinton event, but sadly, I’m not connecting. So this is a mix of the why you should vote for Hillary post I was going to do today anyway, and a report on what you may see on C-SPAN or TVW if you are sad and pathetic (like me, but with cable).

I’m assuming that I’m not very hip, because the only song I’ve recognized so far is by the Dixie Chicks. My second favorite country music. Hey! That Tennessee Twin song is no longer operative, “Free to do what/ To chose this white man over that”. Thanks Democrats! Now don’t fuck it up.

Don’t park on the railroad track. Retard.

Someone said that they’ll need the overflow room, but who knows.

7:48 I’m pretending it’s a live blog. Feel the pretension.

7:53 Namedrop Goldy all you want, but for the slot I’m at I’m seeing a lot of saggy reporter/camera crew asses. Local press access sucks balls. And can I just say that for a group of people obsessed with what Hillary wears, the press sure are a jeans crowd. Shit, you’re seeing the next president of The United States (God willing and a lot of hard work to make it happen). Ever hear of real pants? Maybe a belt? Men, it’s called a tie. Says the blogger.

I need stilts.

8:00 According to my program, we’re starting now. I doubt it.

Anyway, I just saw a hand made sign “Hillary Clinton is paving the road for our future” held up by some adorable kids. Fake reporter rookie mistake # 1: No camera. Damn.

8:07 A lady from the Trib just pulled up next to me. I’m going to copy from her notes. “Do you make a living blogging?” How quaint. On the other hand, I bet I say “fuck” more than her. Goldy will be glad to know that the other, “real” reporters tend to be Mac people.

Now I’ve got “My Home Town” by Girl Trouble stuck in my head, God this post is super indulgent.

8:15 Kids are filling the stage, and speaking of kids, oh right, why you should support her: She has been a consistent advocate of children and families for decades. From turning the Children’s Defense Council into the powerhouse it is now, to her work for education in Arkansas, the most important issue to me, healthcare for everyone, and when that failed getting S-CHIP passed. She’s willing to get to work for us all. I’d provide links, but, you know.

8:44My program says Hill starts 14 minutes ago. I have to wake up in the morning. Fuck (see).

8:47 Niki Sullivan, the lady from the Trib, has left me with her computer. I’m such a gent, I’m not fucking with the Trib’s blog; Yet; The night is young-ish. According to the Trib website, a Lawyer admits one-night stand with Federal Way judge. I applied for the Federal Way Fire Department once. This is actually more self-indulgent than Goldy telling us what he had at the Montlake Alehouse. I win!

8:52She’s 15 minutes away, according to the announcement. So 30 minutes until she gets here. I need a private jet.

9:04One of the volunteers said 7,000 people are here. Not bad for after 9:00 on short notice when I have to wake up in the morning.

9:07 Crowd is chanting “Hillary! Hillary! Hillary!” They are excited, and I’d like to address what Goldy said earlier about down ticket. Of course it’s tough to judge by a candidate’s most excited supporters how much that candidate can excite people generally. But both here and at the Super Tuesday event, the crowd was totally riled up, and I think she can infuse that into the public in general. Also, there will be a better turn out machine by and large, and something tells me that Obama’s cult of personality will have more ticket splitters than the person running on Democratic ideals.

9:17 Fire Alarm, but nobody’s evacuating. Awesome. “Ladies and gentlemen, there is no Fire Emergency.”

9:20 Garry Locke and Ron Sims:

Locke:
A note from the coffee shop next to where I work this morning: All of these are my notes and should not be considered complete or accurate. God knows people talk faster than I can type. Locke was his usual. Not particularly inspiring, but not as bad as that one year after the State of the Union.

It’s amazing how many people are here on such short notice.
It’s high time we had a president who works for working families, people on Social Security and Vets; they need our help and that’s what Hillary Clinton will do for America.
This is about the future of our country.
Democrats all want change, but the challenge is who can deliver that change? Who has the experience to deliver that change? Who has the experience delivering that change? Hillary Clinton.

Sims:
Ron is great! I can’t believe that a call and response for caucusing: “Where you going to be on Saturday? When are you going to be there?” actually worked. But he’s definitely riling up the crowd. “5000 people here tonight, get used to saying ‘Hillary! Hillary! Hillary!'” God love Ron Sims (sorry Will).

9:29 Please welcome Congressman Jay Inslee:

I want to get one thing off my chest: Some people say America isn’t ready to elect a woman president, well if we can elect the single most incompetent man in the country, we’re ready to elect a woman.”
America’s destiny to provide for clean energy, we can do for clean energy what we did for space during the Apolo project.
We have one candidate running for president of the United States who truely wants universal healthcare.

National press got here, I can’t see shit.

9:33 Hillary!
Ron is leading them in a chant: “Hillary! Hillary! Hillary!”

Thank you so much, this is so amazing, I’m so happy to be here
There are so many people, I hope everybody can hear me back there
“Are you ready to pick a president?” – “YES!”
We need you to go out and caucus for me

this sounds a bit dumb, but the crowd was quite excited. Then she went on to thank Sims, Locke and Inslee, Owen, Reardon, all super volunteers. Said she’s “thrilled to have Norm Dicks, announced today.” Your superstar Senators! Frankly I’ll take that over what Obama announced Monday and Gregoire today, and that would be true even if he hadn’t included the chair of Democrats for Bush. Anyway to the meat and potatoes:

It means a lot being here, Washington has done an enormous amount to put us on the right track to fight global warming and clean energy. Washington is proving that we are “the innovation nation” We need people across the country who understand the stakes: There is no guarantee we will remain the great nation we have been, or will spark the kind of zeal that sets our sights high about what each of us can do.

I won the youth vote in MASS and CA.

This is obviously cherry picking but I hope it does something to put the dumbass idea out there, that she’s only good for people over 50, to rest. She’ll be a hell of a president for those of us under 30.

So much work to be done to repair the damage we’ll inherit from President Bush. I see an America that’s once again on fire: the Apolo’s Fire. Jay gave me a long list of companies making the future. Can we really switch gears? We are Americans, and there isn’t anything we can’t do. It’s already happening in WA.

She listed a bunch of companies, I hadn’t heard of a lot of them, and type too slowly.

I’m not asking you to take a leap of faith, I’m asking you to join with me so that the future is there for our children and our grand children. Some people think of the next election; I prefer to think of the next generation. As I look at the future I see some big goals: Build a strong prosperous middle class- it is the backbone of the American economy, and it is at risk. We’ve got to make it clear that the Federal Government will get back on the side of ordinary Americans instead of just the wealthy and well connected. We have to set our priorities about what we’re going to invest in. An investment manager who I represent in New York shouldn’t have a lower tax rate than a nurse or a teacher. That is not right in America.

This is the kind of frame that other, downticket Dems can work their message into, as opposed to some nebulous idea of change that every Republican will also be running on if Obama gets it. I’m so glad that there’s moral outrage about what’s happening to the middle class; it’s outrageous.

We know we need to be fiscally responsible. Bush squandered the surplus on the war in Iraq and tax cuts for the wealthy. It’s time to bring back our men, women, and money in Iraq. We borrow money from China to buy oil from the Saudis. The greatest hope for new jobs is in clean, renewable energy. I want a strategic energy fund that would be the equivalent of the space race. It will be funded with money we give in tax give aways for ExxonMobil. We need to put that money in Washington creating energy jobs. We need energy efficiency.

We need to invest in infrastructure. Within 2 years we had a bridge collapse and levies collapse in the middle of the country. We need to train people for the green collar jobs. We need to end George W. Bush’s war on science {Biggest applause line– Carl}. We know what he’s done denying Global Warming, and vetoing stem cell research. I will have Congress send me the stem cell bill, and I will sign it.

It’s horrible that anyone has to run on science is neat, but there you go.

Universal Healthcare. This is the public passion of my life. I have seen what happens when we deny healthcare. People get sick, they stay sick, and they die. In America. This is immoral. It’s time to say no more. Not in America. Healthcare is a right! I have staked my campaign on making it clear that I will do everything to bring universal healthcare.

My plan is simple: If you are happy with what you have, nothing changes. If you have no insurance, or the insurance company won’t pay, you will have options.

There are people with no insurance and with insurance that isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. I will open up the Congressional health plan, I think it’s time it’s made available to every single American. We will limit the amount you have to pay for a small percentage of your income. There aren’t enough people in the system now to control cost and quality. We will guarantee that no insurance company can deny you coverage for preexisting conditions. Cover prevention, it will help keep people well: This is a core value worth fighting for. Universal healthcare is achivable, and we aren’t leaving out anybody. We’re going to have everybody covered.

Oh hell yes!

I will end the unfunded mandate known as No Child Left Behind!

Is that a subtile attack on Ted Kennedy? No? Probably not, but still.

Let’s make college affordable again! Student loan companies are practicing preditory lending, but in America it should be an investment when you go to college. Pell grants should be indexed to the cost of higher education.

When we get back into the White House we’re going to have to clean house from top to bottom. I have an old fashoned idea: how about appointing qualified people again? How do we restore moral authority and leadership? Start ending the war in Iraq. We need to begin withdrawing troops within 60 days. We couldn’t do it immediately because there is no Bush plan, and we’ve got to do this in the right way. A lot of Iraqis stood up for us, and we’ve got to figure out what to do for them.

The era of cowboy diplomacy is over. We must lead with our values. As we bring our sons and daughters home, we must take care of them. I will be a commander in chief who understands that we have the greatest military in the world that has done everything they have been asked to do. Thousands are coming home and they don’t know what happened. They don’t have a physical wound.

Cynara distracted me, I don’t know what Hillary said for a while. She’s awesome, but she smells like an ashtray. How’s that for self-indulgent? Bye Cynara, back to the conclusion of the speech.

We have issues where we can find common ground, but we also need a president who can stand our ground. We don’t want to be unified for the sake of unity; we need to be unified for progress and for our kids and for hard working middle class Americans. We can do this together.

Caucuses are different from a primary. My theory about democracy is that everybody should participate. Stand up for me for a couple hours on Saturday, I will stand up for you and together we will change our country and make history.

Having seen Bill, Hill, and Obama live, let me tell you she was the best from a crowd riled up standpoint. 12 hours later, and I’m still thrilled.

[Created at this cool page]

Hillary

PRO:

First woman president.
Battle-hardened.
Has the best people.
Bill back in the WH.

CON

Wrong about the war.
Bill back in the WH.
Won’t help much down ticket.
Her people kinda suck, too.

FAVORITE unPC JAB

“Iron my shirt” -Moron with sign.

Barack

PRO

First black president (not counting Morgan Freeman).
Brings new voters into the party.
Right about the war.
Will help down ticket.

CON

Health care plan sucks.
Totally loves nuclear power.
Propensity to cave to GOP.
Has never won a seriously contested election.

FAVORITE unPC JAB

“Is he black enough?” -Stupid news commentator.