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The 5PM Friday deadline is fast approaching, and so far no word from state House Speaker Frank Chopp as to whether he plans to let the Homeowner’s Bill of Rights come to the floor for a vote. If he does, it will surely pass by wide margins, giving owners of single family homes the same rights condo owners have had since 1990. If he doesn’t, than unfortunate homeowners like Scott Thalhamer will remain mired knee-deep in muck in the basement of his one-year-old home, barred by law from suing contractors for shoddy workmanship and code violations.

Even the Seattle Times agrees that this bill provides “reasonable protections,” yet according to KOMO-TV, one man stands in the way: Speaker Frank Chopp. Watch the video and see for your self, then dial the legislative hotline at 800-562-6000 and ask your representatives to ask Frank to let them vote on SB 6385.

I’m filling in for Dave Ross this morning on News/Talk 710-KIRO. Here’s how the show is shaping up thus far:

9AM: If it’s not Boeing, is Congress not going?
With Rep. Norm Dicks blaming Boeing’s tanker deal loss on last minute criteria changes, and House Appropriations chair John Murtha suggesting that he is considering legislation to hold up the contract, the controversy only gets hotter. Rep. Jim McDermott joins us at the top of the hour to give us the lowdown on the latest developments. Does outsourcing this contract represent a national security concern, or just an economic one? And if it’s the latter, is that reason enough to hold up a defense contract?

9:30AM: Will the Dems get a do-over in FL and MI?
Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean is urging Florida and Michigan party officials to repeat their presidential primaries, a possibility that seems increasingly likely now that it is clear that neither Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton can garner enough pledged delegates to clinch the nomination prior to the convention. Also… an exploration of the “cult” of Obama.

10AM: Do “house daddies” make for happier marriages?
Men are helping out more at home, and studies suggest that this trend may result in healthier, happier marriages. Um… it didn’t work so well for this divorced, former house daddy, but then, maybe an SOB like me isn’t exactly the best control subject?

11AM: Dueling headlines… what’s really up in our local housing market?
The Seattle P-I today cheerily tells us that the housing market is “perking up,” while the Seattle Times blearily bemoans our housing “slump.” Local real-estate blogger Timothy Ellis of “Seattle Bubble” joins us to help straighten things out.

Tune in this morning (or listen to the live stream) and give me a call: 1-877-710-KIRO (5476).

[via Balloon Juice]

Podcasting Liberally returns with another brilliant evening of conversation recorded live at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. This week me (Goldy), Will, Carl, Jenny Jennie and McKenna provide live coverage of Hillary Clinton’s big win in "Crucial Tuesday" primary… or maybe it was her big loss. Listen in and figure it out for yourself.

[audio:http://www.podcastingliberally.com/podcasts/podcasting_liberally_march_4_2008.mp3]

The show is 41:54, and can be downloaded here as a 38.4 MB MP3.

[Recorded live at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Special thanks to Darryl for producing the show, and Confab creators Gavin and Richard for hosting this site.]

I’ll be on “The Conversation” during the 1:00pm hour. Tune in to hear what I think about last night’s results. (Or read it here.)

UPDATE [Goldy]:
Jesus, Will… you sounded like a goddamn grownup! What’s up with that? (And what’s up with the fact that Eric Earling got more time?)

Rassmussen blows it here and here.

What, were the “zeros” on their phones broken? Did they accidentally miss all Seattle voters? Did they even try to call anyone in the “206”?

Somebody’s sample is FUBAR.

Other recent polling finds slightly different results.

From the Times:

Still, for all the millions of votes Clinton has won, simple math is still her enemy. She now needs to use Tuesday night to persuade superdelegates — the hundreds of party leaders who have a vote on the nomination — to stop abandoning her for Obama.

Kos:

So the stark reality remains — even in this best-case scenario, Clinton only chipped Obama’s pledged delegate lead from 159 to 148. Yet last night offered more than 1/3rd of remaining delegates, 370. Only about 560 remain in the contest.

If Obama can show he’s not collapsing under the weight of Clinton’s assault, there will be no reason for the super delegates to overturn the will of the voters (in both pledged delegates and the popular vote).

Yeah, Clinton won last night, but she didn’t win by the margin needed to really “clean up” the way she needed to in the delegate apportionment. Even though she won two big states, she’s not going to win all of their delegates.

What her victories will do is keep her super delegates loyal for the time being, which is important for folks like Jay Inslee. I bet that guy’s phone is ringing like crazy these days from angry Obamatrons.

Goldy asked last night if the race continuing like this was “good for the party.” I said that it was, but it can’t go on indefinitely. Somebody has to win, or more importantly, somebody has to lose, and soon. But as long as Hillary does the winning, she’ll have no reason to quit, even if the math gets uglier for her.

I’m filling in for Dave Ross this morning (and through tomorrow) on News/Talk 710-KIRO. Here’s how the show is shaping up thus far:

9AM: Who won yesterday’s “Crucial Tuesday” primaries?
No, really… who won? I’m not really sure. I mean, I know Hillary Clinton won three out of four, including the big prizes of Ohio and Texas, but she didn’t really make a dent in Obama’s delegate lead, so mathematically, does it really matter? Joining me to help sort things out is Democratic strategist, pundit, blogger and friend of the show, James Boyce, who recently suggested on Huffington Post that an Obama nomination could lead to a popular vote landslide victory/electoral college loss in November. Later in the hour we hope to hear from the DNC about fears of a brokered convention.

10AM: Goldy talks to Republicans!
It happens. You know, sometimes. Tracey Schmitt, a Republican strategist and former RNC communications director joins me at the top of the hour to kvell about Sen. John McCain and his prospects in November. Later, we turn to the state GOP’s new transportation plan that promises to spend $6 billion on transportation projects… without raising taxes! House Transportation Committee chair Rep. Judy Clibborn (D-Mercer Island) joins me at 10:35, but first we hope to talk to one of the Republicans behind this plan to explain how it works… or barring that, maybe a magician.

11AM: Do high school students have ANY First Amendment rights?
17-year-old Avery Doninger was disciplined by high school administrators after calling them “douche bags” on her public blog, a decision upheld by a federal court that ruled she could be punished because the blog addressed school issues and was likely read by fellow students… raising the question… do teens have any rights at all? Geez… students can be disciplined every time they call a school official a douche bag, off school property, two-thirds of students would eventually be expelled. Doninger’s attorney, Jon Schoenhorn, joins me by phone.

Tune in this morning (or listen to the live stream) and give me a call: 1-877-710-KIRO (5476).

I moved to Washington state in the summer of 1999. My first impressions of the state were largely positive. I liked almost everything about the area—except the traffic and transportation infrastructure. That fall, as I followed the debate over Initiative 695, my reaction was one of astonishment. “Why, the hell, would anyone want to gut funding for the state’s one serious weakness?”

But I-695 wasn’t about making the state a better place in any real sense. It was an appeal to individual greed and selfishness—a “free ice cream cones for everyone!” gimmick— that didn’t fully disclose the consequences for local government services, the ferry system, and other transportation infrastructure. My conclusion that autumn was that Washingtonians had no freaking idea how good they really have it. Subsequent observations have largely confirmed this.

In February, 2005 we learned just how good we have it government-wise. The Pew-sponsored Government Performance Project (GPP) graded Washington state a B+. From the individual scores, Washington ranked as the third best state government, with only Utah and Virginia doing better. When the report came out, we were in the midst of a contested gubernatorial election. The report seemed largely overlooked.

Last year we learned just how good we have it business-wise, when Forbes’ annual survey ranked Washington state number five in the nation for business climate. And Fortune magazine rated Washington the fourth best state in which to start a business—specifically citing our “low taxes”.

And earlier this week we learned how consistently good we have it government-wise when the 2008 GPP report was released. The 2005 results were not a fluke. Once again, Washington state ranks third behind Utah and Virginia. Our grade improved slightly to an A- overall. Individual grades were A- for money, A- for people, B+ for infrastructure, and A for information (see the full report for what these categories mean and how the grading was done).

Together these four reports strongly suggest that Washington’s government and business climate are near the top in the nation. The idea contradicts two of the three major right-wing talking points. Here’s the list:

1. The Washington state government performs poorly
2. The state government hurts the business climate
3. We are overtaxed for what we get out of our government

The third talking point can be decomposed into two parts. First, are Washingtonians overtaxed? And second, are tax revenues efficiently utilized by the state? The first part can be evaluated objectively by looking at the per capita tax burden for state and local taxes. Information for 2005 tax revenue (the most recent available) and state population sizes can be found at the U.S. Census Bureau. (The per capita tax burdens for all states can also be found at the Washington state Department of Revenue–either source yields the same results.)

In 2005, Washington’s state and local tax “burden” ranked at number 21, or about $3,651/person. The U.S. average was $3,447. In other words, we fell slightly on high side of average, but some $2000 below first ranked New York’s cost of $5,752/person and about $1,000 above last ranked Alabama at $2,569 per person. These figures make it difficult to argue that Washingtonians are taxed outrageously. (As a percentage income—the figure most widely cited in state by state comparisons—Washington ranks 37th, well below the national average.)

What about value? Do Washingtonians get good value for their tax dollar? Consider two hypotheses. (A) Conceivably, we could all be paying a huge premium for our state government’s third-best performance. (Sort of like the lousy fuel efficiency that high-performance cars get.) (B) Alternatively, perhaps great performing governments are also highly efficient governments.

If hypothesis (A) is correct, we might use the information to find a parsimonious set of trade-offs between government performance and per capita cost. If hypothesis (B) turns out to be correct, we can rejoice in our double dose of success—a high-performance and efficient government. And then we can strike out that third right-wing talking point.

A natural way to test between these two hypotheses is by looking at the per capita costs to achieve the grade in the GPP. Since the GPP grade is a proxy for performance, we can use state tax rates to estimate the per capita cost of that performance. Here is how I’ve done this.

For all 50 states, I took the letter grades for all four categories (one each for money, people, infrastructure, and information) and converted them into numerical scores from A = 4, A- = 3.67, B+ = 3.33, …, F = 0. I then averaged the grades to get a number between 0 and 4. This gives Washington state a grade of 3.67, which is the third best score among all states.

Next, I divided the per capita tax by the numerical grade for an estimate of the efficiency—that is, we compute the cost for each unit of grade. The resulting price per grade point is akin to the price per pound when comparison shopping among, say, different brands of apples. We can directly use the numbers to find the best value around in state government.

The results are summarized in this table:

State	2005 per capita tax	Tax rank	Grade	Efficiency ($/grade)	Efficiency rank
Alabama	$2,569	50	2.17	1185	17
Alaska	$4,443	6	1.92	2314	46
Arizona	$3,079	34	2.59	1191	19
Arkansas	$2,902	44	2.09	1392	31
California	$4,055	12	2.00	2028	42
Colorado	$3,363	27	2.17	1553	36
Connecticut	$5,398	2	2.59	2088	43
Delaware	$3,894	14	3.17	1229	22
Florida	$3,369	26	2.67	1262	24
Georgia	$3,010	38	3.33	903	3
Hawaii	$4,338	7	2.17	2001	40
Idaho	$2,926	42	2.92	1004	7
Illinois	$3,849	16	1.92	2007	41
Indiana	$3,405	25	3.08	1105	14
Iowa	$3,273	30	2.83	1157	16
Kansas	$3,415	24	2.58	1322	27
Kentucky	$2,939	40	2.83	1038	9
Louisiana	$3,173	31	2.92	1089	13
Maine	$3,960	13	2.00	1980	39
Maryland	$4,276	8	2.92	1467	34
Massachusetts	$4,470	5	1.92	2334	47
Michigan	$3,494	23	3.33	1048	11
Minnesota	$4,088	11	2.83	1443	33
Mississippi	$2,575	49	2.17	1189	18
Missouri	$2,997	39	3.33	899	2
Montana	$2,913	43	2.42	1206	20
Nebraska	$3,746	18	3.09	1214	21
Nevada	$3,749	17	2.34	1606	37
New Hampshire	$3,306	29	1.33	2481	49
New Jersey	$4,890	4	2.09	2345	48
New Mexico	$3,151	32	2.50	1260	23
New York	$5,752	1	2.50	2301	45
North Carolina	$3,149	33	2.75	1144	15
North Dakota	$3,343	28	2.50	1337	28
Ohio	$3,637	22	2.67	1363	30
Oklahoma	$2,843	45	2.17	1312	26
Oregon	$3,052	36	2.42	1264	25
Pennsylvania	$3,710	19	2.75	1349	29
Rhode Island	$4,191	9	1.67	2517	50
South Carolina	$2,779	46	2.67	1041	10
South Dakota	$2,715	47	2.50	1087	12
Tennessee	$2,685	48	2.67	1007	8
Texas	$3,015	37	3.17	952	4
Utah	$2,933	41	3.83	765	1
Vermont	$4,137	10	2.50	1655	38
Virginia	$3,657	20	3.75	975	5
Washington	$3,651	21	3.67	996	6
West Virginia	$3,060	35	2.17	1412	32
Wisconsin	$3,872	15	2.50	1549	35
Wyoming	$5,251	3	2.50	2100	44
U.S.	$3,447	—	2.59	1333	—

The “efficiency” column shows how many dollars per grade point taxpayers pay in each state. The “Efficiency rank” goes from most efficient to least efficient. The best value in state government is found in Utah, where taxpayers paid $765 per grade point.

Washington state is the 6th best value (i.e. sixth most efficient government) by this measure. It cost taxpayers just under $1,000 per grade point, compared to a national average of $1,333.

The worst? Rhode Island, where taxpayers spent $4,191 for each grade point in their score.

In the individual sub-categories, Washington state does well (results not shown in the table). We are ranked 7th most efficient for money, 7th most efficient for people, 12th most efficient for infrastructure, and 7th most efficient for information. Not too shabby!

The analysis rejects hypothesis (A) in favor of hypothesis (B). We really can rejoice in our government that is both high-performance and efficient. Right-wing talking point number three would seem to be well off the mark.

One potential criticism of this analysis is that the GPP might be strongly related to efficiency—that is, higher state scores may already reflect lower per capita taxes. If so, we should see a high correlation between per capita tax and the GPP score. We don’t. The squared correlation between the two measures is r² = 0.034. In other words, there is only the weakest relationship between per capita tax and GPP score. Here is a scatter plot for visual confirmation:

I feel vindicated. My early impressions were right. The perpetual whiners in this state who claim that our government is broken, inefficient, poorly performing, bloated, ineffective, incompetent, and expensive are wrong—they don’t know how good they have it. They’ve hunkered down so tightly on the compound that they’ve lost touch with reality.

The facts are plain and can be evaluated objectively…Washington state is one of the greatest values around in state government. And, judging by the recent increases in both the GPP scores and the Forbes rankings, Washington is not only a great value, but has been improving.

(Cross posted at Hominid Views)

The Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight (and every Tuesday), 8PM at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E… but no doubt folks will be dropping by quite a bit early to watch the election returns trickle.

In fact, I’m headed off to DL in just a few moments, but polls have closed in Vermont and Ohio and some winners have already been declared. Obama is projected to win Vermont, where he currently leads Clinton 58-40 with 4% of precincts reporting, and McCain is projected to win… well… who the fuck really cares about McCain now that that race is already over?

UPDATE [5:17]:
No, I haven’t left for DL yet. But almost. Meanwhile, while the networks are saying Ohio is “too close to call”, final exit polls suggest a narrow victory for Clinton, likely within five points. In the end, its the delegate count that matters most, and so far it doesn’t look like Clinton is poised to pick up much ground on Obama in pledged delegates. As Jonathan Singer explains over on MyDD:

If Obama can get about 64 percent in Vermont tonight, the delegate spread would be 10 to 5 rather than 9 to 6 … I don’t think Obama will be able to hit 70 percent, which would yield an 11 to 4 spread, but if he could hit that 64 percent mark it could potentially mean that Obama would net as many delegates from Vermont as Clinton will from Ohio.

As of the moment, Obama leads Clinton 59-39 in Vermont, with 15% of precincts reporting.

UPDATE [6:11]:
Polls just closed in Rhode Island, where with 0% reporting, Obama and Clinton are neck and neck in a 0-0 tie. Obviously, it’s “too close to call”. (Or, more accurately, as Nick just pointed out, “too early”.)

More useful, Obama leads Clinton in Texas, 54-45 with 2% reporting. That may not sound like very much data, but over a million ballots have been counted, as all the early voting apparently gets reported as a single precinct. Clearly, Obama kicked ass in early voting. Expect the gap to close, just as Clinton closed in the polls over the final days of the campaign.

Elsewhere, Clinton leads Ohio 59-39 with 3% reporting, and 50-49 in Rhode Island with 4% reporting, while as earlier, who gives a flying fuck about McCain?

UPDATE [6:23]:
CLINTON WINS!!! (Rhode Island.) After losing 12 straight primaries and caucuses to Obama, Clinton has apparently finally notched a victory, with the networks declaring her the winner of “The Ocean State”… which ironically, is not actually on an ocean. (Or for that matter, is an actual island. Go figure.)

UPDATE [6:28]:
Mike Huckabee was still running for president? Who knew? He’s on TV announcing his withdrawal, with “this lady to my right” standing with him, just half step behind and to his side. I’m assuming he’s referring to his wife, but it might have been nice to mention her name. Assuming he knows it.

UPDATE [6:50]:
John McCain’s wife is better preserved than Vladimir Lenin. I wonder if she stops smiling if her face will crack?

UPDATE [7:20]:
As I predicted, the Obama’s lead in Texas is narrowing as more votes come in, down now to thin 50-48 margin. Man am I smart.

I’ve been too busy this week to closely follow the most recent incidence of Democratic spinelessness over the Bush Administration’s illegal wiretapping, but I have a question that I don’t think has been asked yet. The issue here revolves around immunity for the telecom companies who complied with the Bush Administration as they broke the law. I think that what the telecoms did was inexcusable and I certainly don’t have much sympathy for the executives who went along with it. But there’s obviously a bigger problem here, and that’s the fact that we had an administration in the White House that was putting pressure on these companies to break the law in the first place. The question I have is: Are the Democrats in the House even considering the possibility of granting the telecoms immunity in exchange for information that could incriminate high ranking Bush Administration officials? If so, I’m fine with giving them immunity in exchange for having a few of them testifying under oath in front of the House with the details of how the Bush Administration broke the law. I don’t see what would stop them from doing this, and even if it remains impossible to actually indict the Bush Administration officials who are fingered, it would still make it even more clear that the Justice Department under Bush looks the other way when it comes to the crimes that this administration has committed. As I said, I haven’t been able to follow this too closely this week, so I want to throw this out to the wind to see if I’m missing something.

Earlier today I had state Sen. Brian Weinstein on The Dave Ross Show talking about SB 6385, his Home Buyer’s Bill of Rights. The bill would simply give purchasers of a new single family home the same basic warranty and rights provided to condo buyers since 1990. Right now it’s virtually impossible for a home buyer to sue a contractor for shoddy workmanship and materials — even violations of the building codes. This bill would fix that.

The bill passed overwhelmingly in the Senate and in the House Judiciary Committee, but faces a fast approaching Friday, 5PM deadline to get to the floor of the House for a vote. While it certainly doesn’t hurt to complain on the radio or a blog, it’s a helluva lot more effective to complain to your representative directly, so that’s why I urge you to call the legislative hotline at 800-562-6000 and ask your representative to urge House Speaker Frank Chopp to give this bill a vote.

Righties often complain that our elected officials don’t listen to us, but that’s just because they want us to give up. The truth is, they do listen to us, we just don’t speak up often enough. Give your reps a call at 800-562-6000 and ask them to pass SB 6385, the Home Buyer’s Bill of Rights.

I’m filling in for Dave Ross this morning (and through Thursday, March 6th) on News/Talk 710-KIRO. Here’s how the show is shaping up thus far:

9AM: Why is Sen. Patty Murray so pissed?
Sen. Patty Murray delivered an angry tirade on the floor of the US Senate this morning, decrying the Air Force refueling tanker contract as little more than an economic stimulus package for Europeans. Sen. Murray joins us at the top of the hour to summarize her grievances and to tell us where we go from here. What is the US sacrificing by outsourcing crucial military contracts overseas, and is economic stimulus a factor the Air Force should have been considering? Or if taxpayers can save a few bucks on the French built “Freedom Tanker”, is that all you need to know?

10AM: Are liberals coming back in the Lone Star State?
In this morning’s New York Times, Texas Monthly executive editor writes that “Lone Star liberals are back“, suggesting that more than a decade of Republican one-party rule in Texas may be over. Prof. Thomas Schaller, author of Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South joins us at the top of the hour to discuss our shifting electoral map. We’ll also get updates from the ground in both Ohio and Texas on this crucial election day.

11AM: Is state government working hard, or hardly working?
Are homeowners second-class citizens? State Sen. Brian Weinstein joins us at the top of the hour to give us an update on SB 6385, his Homeowner’s Bill of Rights, which gives buyers of single family homes the same legal warranties currently given buyers of condos. The bill flew through the Senate two years running, but so far Speaker Frank Chopp has refused to let it come to the floor of the House. We’ll ask… why? Later in the hour will discuss a new report that ranks WA’s government as one of only three states to receive an “A-” grade on management performance. Surprised? We’ll explore why.

Tune in this morning (or listen to the live stream) and give me a call: 1-877-710-KIRO (5476).

On the same day Washington was ranked amongst the top three most effective state governments, Gov. Christine Gregoire helped demonstrate how she made the grade by announcing revised plans that would replace the 520 floating bridge two years sooner and at as much as $700 million below previous estimates. Much of the savings come simply from accelerating construction, thus avoiding anticipated inflation of concrete and other materials.

The accelerated schedule is achieved through a number of means, including expediting the environmental permitting process and beginning construction on the rest of the 520 corridor sooner than originally planned, but much of it is due to advancing pontoon construction at two facilities simultaneously. Construction on smaller pontoons will now begin in 2009 at an existing facility in Tacoma, while construction on a new facility at Grays Harbor will begin in 2010, with production coming online the following year. Pontoons from both facilities will be floated through the locks, and into Lake Washington, where they will be assembled on site. This accelerated construction plan also has the ancillary benefit of creating hundreds of new local jobs at a time the national economy is headed into recession.

The proposal calls for a six-lane bridge — two general purpose lanes and an HOV lane in each direction — and will avoid the need for a draw span by raising the clearance on the Eastside approach. The bridge is designed to be expandable, with the ability to add new lanes or rail capacity by attaching a new row of pontoons to one side, and is now scheduled to be completed by the Fall of 2014, with full 520 corridor improvements to be finished by 2016. The total project will be financed by $1.7 billion in state and federal money, and as much as $2 billion in tolls.

In a letter to legislative leaders, Gov. Gregoire explained that the revised plan came in response to a request she made to WSDOT in January to explore all options for accelerating construction. Credit surely goes to WSDOT for rethinking the construction plan and finding the savings in both time and money, but credit also goes to Gov. Gregoire for pushing this process along.