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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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The Late Show: Ted Cruz warns Texas about the Blue Wave.

Trevor: Remembering John Lewis

Samantha Bee: From Hopeless to Hope-ish with Masha Gessen

Mother Jones: Mitch McConnell refuses to honor John Lewis’ legacy.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Liars, Scoundrels, and Treason Weasels:

Brave New Films: How prisons abuse the mentally ill

Stephen: A crowd surfing American hero—Remembering Congressman John Lewis.

Robert Reich: Reimagining public safety.

The Late Show: The King of Caveat knights Rep. Ted Yoho.

Now This: 93-year-old convicted in one of the last Nazi trials ever.

ТрампPlague:

Samantha Bee offers name alternatives for racist sports teams.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Seth Meyers: Joy Reid on White people joining the Black Lives Matter movement

Stephen: Greta Thunberg—Humanity is “setting fire to the boat” instead of facing the climate crisis.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Monday Afternoon Thread.

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I should probably write something…

Listen, I hate to do anything to benefit Portland, but if you’re able people I follow on social media recommended bail funds here. It’s scary what’s going on down there. The local police are scary enough, but add in the Feds kidnapping people off the street, and holy shit. Anyway, do what you can if you can.

Also, wash your hands right now.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Desi Lydic FAUXSplains “cancel culture”.

Bruce W. Nelson: Tucker Carlson’s the poster boy for meritless White privilege.

Now This: Militarized federal agents are seizing U.S. protesters in Portland

Stephen: W. Kamau Bell—America was built on White supremacy. it won’t go away until we redesign the system.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

The Dotard Трамп and His Barrel of Swamp Monkeys:

Vox: The fight for America’s 51st state, explained.

Jimmy Fallon: Stacey Abrams breaks down how to dismantle voter suppression.

Seth Meyers: Sen. Tammy Duckworth calls Tucker Carlson a gnat.

WaPo: 50 nights of protests—What you need to know about the tension in Portland.

Trevor: Biden’s poll numbers surge, but will 2020 be another 2016?

Mother Jones: Deconstructing the design and demolition of Confederate monuments.

ТрампPlague:

Roll Call: Democrats well positioned to take the Senate.

Samantha Bee: : The Homophobic History of Blood Donation, Pt. 1

Samantha Bee: : The Homophobic History of Blood Donation, Pt. 2

Jonathan Mann: Socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor:

Mother Jones: Why scientists are so worried about this glacier.

Dulcé Sloan: Census suppression and why it matters.

Courtney Jaye: Get lost @TuckerCarlson.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Now This: Artists protest immigrant detention with skywriting

Robert Reich: Monopoly mayhem—Corporations win, workers lose.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Racist, Sexual Preditors, and Con-men:

Anthony Anderson: Political monologue.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

ТрампPlague:

Roy Zimmerman: The Orange County Rolling Acres Senior Center Cannabis Club

Now This: Joe Biden and Ady Barkan on the future of long-term healthcare.

Black Lives Matter:

WaPo: Biden’s $700 billion economic plan, in 4 minutes.

The Late Show: Aliens discover racist Tucker Carlson.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Today’s Open Thread

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Tim Eyman is a horse’s ass. But he’s also the only one of the Republicans running for governor who I had any idea about. Who else is running? Wasn’t there some guy who wasn’t going to enforce gun laws? Is he doing anything recentlOHGOD.

In a long-running lawsuit, a woman accuses police and deputies in Ferry County of failing to properly investigate when she reported a pattern of rape and molestation spanning 12 years of her childhood.

Among the defendants is Loren Culp, who is now the police chief in the town of Republic and a Republican candidate for Washington governor. The lawsuit alleges Culp and two other law enforcement officers intimidated the victim, threatened to charge her with making false claims and failed to report her allegations to child welfare authorities as required by law.

Of course a lawsuit filed isn’t the same as all of the accusations proven. But yikes.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Election 2020: Trump slides

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Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 375 electoral votes
Mean of 163 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My previous analysis of the Biden-Trump head-to-head polls was way back in early June, in part because the dynamics of the race didn’t seem to be changing much. Trump is slowly slipping in the polls, as the COVID-19 epidemic worsens in the U.S., as Trump resists movements for police reforms, and as we learn bizarre things like Trump not responding to Russian bounties on American soldiers in Afghanistan.

After 100,000 simulated elections, the results are not surprising. Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 375 to Trump’s 163 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Basically, if the election was today, Biden would win in a landslide.

Trump has a serious electoral college problem. Many swing states are now trending strongly for Biden, including Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Other swing states are pretty solidly in Biden’s camp, like Arizona, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Even Ohio trends slightly toward Biden. Iowa and Texas are in toss-up territory, but leaning slightly toward Trump. Remarkable!

The trend over the past couple months are clear from from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from Jul 2019 to the present, and, at each point in time, including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

There is, of course, plenty of time to turn this trend around. Still, Trump’s bizarre and impulsive behavior will make doing that very difficult.

[Read more…]

Monday Open Thread

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I saw my parents for the first time since the quarantine started over the weekend. We had a socially distanced, masked walk and a picnick. It was a relatively low risk thing, but it was still nervous making. I was glad to see them, but still I don’t know.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Now This: Sen. Mark Warner on cleaning up national parks.

BuzzFeed: How Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos will make 1 million dollars during this 7 minute video.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Immorals, Incompetents, and Incontenents:

Samantha Bee: How to save the Postal Service

Now This: The fight to expand vote-by-mail before election day.

Trevor: The CIA is hiring.

Black Lives Matter:

Hasan Minhaj : Why doing taxes is so hard.

The Foundation Singers: NOVEMBER!

ТрампPlague:

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Now This: Who is Ron DeSantis? (Narrated by Yedoye Travis)

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

July 1 Open Thread

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It’s depressing how the CHOP/CHAZ is ending. There was so much generated there. Art and community. A garden. But when self-declared security forces kill a Black child it’s tough to support the place.

None of this excuses the actions of SPD in the last month or so. None of this means tear gassing protesters is retroactively OK or that we can’t defund the police. Black lives still matter.

(Also wash your hands right now.)

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