HorsesAss.Org

I haven’t seen the movie Walk Hard, but now that I know that Dan Bern wrote most of the songs, I’m gonna hafta.

When you’re the 419th 401st most powerful member of the House of Representatives, chances at the national limelight are few and far between. You must carefully weigh which, of the many pressing issues facing the body politic, you can expend your limited political capital advocating for. You don’t get many chances to shine; you gotta make ’em count.

So it’s sorta fascinating, in a gruesome car wreck kind of way, to see Rep. Dave Reichert (“Conscience Driven Independent™”-WA) in the pages of The Hill’s Congress Blog on Friday, taking a bold stance against the impeachment of President Bush:

As one of the nine Republicans crossing party lines yesterday on the vote moving Rep. Dennis Kucinich’s impeachment resolution to the Judiciary Committee, I cast my vote not to hold hearings, but to move the bill off the House Floor so the House could focus on more important issues….

There are less than 30 legislative days left in the Congressional calendar. And this is what we are voting on? No wonder the country has lost faith in Congress. There are so many things that we need to take action on and impeachment votes that are guaranteed not to pass is not one of them.

Now, it’s pretty hard to argue with the assertion that members of the House of Representatives should, you know, do stuff. Although a reasonable observer might add that, with fewer than 30 legislative days left in his fourth year of Congressional service, Sheriff Dave has thus selected as good a time as any to start. Had he actually started to do anything.

Plus, to be sure, no matter how many high crimes and misdemeanors the Bush cabal has committed — and they are undoubtably legion — genuine impeachment, based on a full accounting of those crimes, at this point isn’t even physically possible; Republicans and Democrats alike have so run the clock out on Bush’s second term without mounting any sort of serious investigation of their crimes that at this point none could be conducted in time. Politically, it’s preposterous to think it could or would happen anyway. Neither party’s leadership is interested in turning over that rock.

So why is Reichert wasting his time writing about it?

More to the point, why is Reichert wasting his miniscule influence defending a widely reviled administration he’s supposed to be independent of? (Except for fundraisers.) (And his voting record.) And why does he think it’s a waste of time to investigate some of the crimes that have helped create those crises (illegal wars, soaring energy costs, an economy crippled by deregulated and corrupt financial dealings) he’s failed to help address for four years?

And if crimes leading to multiple crises crippling the country aren’t worth tying up the House’s time, why did his party think impeachment over lying about a blow job was worth bringing Congress to a full stop for over a year?

You’d almost think Reichert was using a meaningless vote to try to score exactly the sort of cheap political points he was allegedly deploring, on behalf of an administration he is allegedly independent of. But then, that’s exactly the sort of expediency-driven political hackery we’ve come to expect from the Seattle Times’ favorite “moderate.”

I didn’t get to bed too late last night, my head hitting the pillow by 1AM, but once again awoke a few hours later, this time sick as dog. (Actually, it was more like sick as a cat, if you know what I mean.)

Perhaps it was the free margaritas at the Daily Kos party (contrary to the name of my weekly social event, I don’t really drink all that liberally, and I didn’t last night either, but I almost never drink liquor, so who knows?), or perhaps it was the rare ahi tacos I had at dinner (yeah… order raw fish in Texas… that’s a great idea), but whatever the culprit, five hours later my sweat glands are my only orifices with anything left to spew.

(If you want to see a little of me in a less peaked state, Bill Scher has a brief video interview with me up on Liberal Oasis.)

Fortunately, today’s schedule was delayed, pushing my 10:30 panel back to 11:05, so I’ve got a little extra time to recover, sip a little green tea, and listen to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi gamely take questions from a crowd comprised of a couple thousand folks who have never been shy about pointing out our many disappointments with the 110th Congress. The first question, from moderator and Netroots Nation executive director Gina Cooper, regarded when Karl Rove might find his way into that little jail cell on Capitol Hill for refusing to comply with a subpoena? Pelosi didn’t exactly answer the question, but she did say “He certainly deserves to be there”, much to the appreciation of the audience.

Anyway, I don’t plan to live blog the event, but I may post an update if anything particularly interesting happens. Now where’s that bathroom…?

UPDATE:
As expected, Pelosi just introduced “surprise” guest Al Gore. And as expected, he was greeted by an enthusiastic standing ovation.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
The quote of the day thus far from Gore (slightly paraphrased):

“Responding to today’s high gas prices by drilling new wells that won’t come online for 10 to 15 years, and most of which will be sold to China anyway, makes as much sense as responding to a threat from Afghanistan by invading another country.”

From the folks who brought you I Can Haz Cheezburger, it’s Failblog:

I’d barely shut my eyes for three hours when I found myself inexplicably awake, watching the sun attempt to crawl above the early morning Austin haze, the first tentative rays of light glinting off the endless rows of air conditioning units that neatly grow like cabbages across the flattop roofs of the surrounding buildings.

Kinda incoherent poetic metaphors, huh? Yeah, well, just be glad you’re not getting a fucking haiku from me, considering my accumulated sleep deficit over the past few days.

I had planned to get to bed relatively early last night, but somehow found myself at 1:30 AM, sitting in an IHOP with Darcy Burner and a bunch of veterans. Vote Vets co-founder and chairman Jon Soltz sat across the table, passionately detailing the Veteran Administration’s many bureaucratic nightmares as he relentlessly made his way through an enormous, whipped cream topped stack of chocolate chip pancakes. On his own unexpected politicization Soltz described heading to Iraq a true believer, only to have reality—political, military and otherwise—rip the veil from his eyes. “It was like learning that your parents are not really your parents,” Soltz explained as he tried to relate the sense of betrayal that accompanied his own disillusionment.

Perhaps the biggest surprise for those who don’t know squat about the liberal blogosphere might be that while 20-year-old slackers in bathrobes are in short supply here at Netroots Nation, veterans and military personnel are out in full force. At last night’s keynote, Gen. Wes Clark called out various groups one by one to stand up and be acknowledged… teachers, medical professionals, candidates, first responders, social workers, etc…. but by far the largest group in attendance were the veterans, and it was for them that the crowd reserved its loudest and longest round of applause.

It is an inside netroots joke that we sometimes refer to ourselves as “dirty fucking hippies,” the inherent punchline being that this description couldn’t be further from the truth. If we are radicals, we are the radicalized middle, a segment of the population historically loathe to forsake economic security for the sake of a mere cause, yet somehow provoked into producing a populist uprising. That veterans like Soltz and Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas Zuniga provide two of our most outspoken voices should come as no surprise from a broad movement that draws support from nearly every corner of American life.

For those who hope or imagine that Darcy’s close connections with the netroots will ultimately prove to hurt her standing with her district’s suburban voters, well, you should have been at IHOP last night, where Darcy was literally embraced by veterans who trust that she will deliver the kind of leadership, respect and support that they deserve. Yet more evidence that we are in fact a netroots nation.

Gov. Gregoire has a diary up at Daily Kos right now. Here’s a slice:

Why are they attacking me so early? Because they know there is something happening in our country – people are hungry for a new direction, away from the Bush Administration.

They are so aware of this fact that my opponent filed as a member of the “GOP Party,” hiding the fact that he is a Republican. And what is on my opponent’s website? The word “Change” in the largest font you have ever seen.

We all know that voters are desperate for change in our nation, ready to turn around the failed policies of the Bush Administration. But voters are smart. They know the kind of change they are looking for.

Republican Dino Rossi can spend millions on attacks, pretend he isn’t a Republican and even give lip service to change, but he can’t hide his George Bush record.

No comment…

[via The General]

I get email:

For someone who doesn’t want to be tied to Bush, Rossi is doing a shitty job of defense. Sending out press releases talking about the Governor talking about how you named your dog after Bush?!?! Are you fucking serious?

The emailer is referring to a press release sent by the Rossi campaign in response to this quote by Gregoire:

“In fact, he is so enamored with George W. Bush he has named his dog [Dubya]. I feel sorry for the dog.”

When Rossi should be trying his best to show voters that he’s not in league with Mr. 28 Percent, this release shows he’s not taking taking that advice. What a bunch of whiners.

And this photo above, well… let’s just say that campaigns pay people 4k a month to keep them from happening.

Over at Slog, Dominic Holden has posted a copy of the heavily-redacted police report from Tuesday’s raid on the Lifevine medical marijuana office in the University District. The police involvement in this case began when the operator of a barbershop adjacent to the Lifevine office reported the smell of marijuana to police. According to the Seattle Times, the barbershop owner was unaware that the office was being used by medical marijuana patients.

When the police arrived, Martin Martinez from Lifevine cooperated with them (Martin was actually one of the people who helped pass the initiative in 1998 that was intended to make medical marijuana legal in this state). After communicating with Ellen O’Neill-Stephens in the King County Prosecuting Attorney’s office, the police were then able to obtain a warrant to conduct a search. During the search, the police took out a wall in the office, convinced that there was a secret grow operation behind it. They found no plants growing anywhere.

They then took both medicine (12 ounces) and patient files from the office. In an interview with KUOW this morning, King County Prosecuting Attorney Dan Satterberg acknowledged that the medical files should not have been taken and they are being returned this afternoon. The police are still refusing to return the medicine, even though the amount taken is within the draft 60-day supply limits proposed by the Department of Health.

Even as this situation inches towards a positive resolution, there are still a lot of questions. Why did the police take the files in the first place? Were they authorized by O’Neill-Stephens to do so? Is SPD going to pay for the wall they damaged? And how are the actions of SPD in any way compliant with Initiative 75, which made adult marijuana use the lowest priority for the city’s law enforcement, so that they could, you know, deal with real crimes?

And there’s one other question here that’s not directly related to marijuana laws. Why didn’t the barbershop owner try to find out why there was a marijuana odor coming from the office next door before calling the cops? This is a peculiar Seattle trait that I’ve noticed. People here will call in NATO to intervene with a neighborhood dispute before they’ll actually knock on their neighbor’s door and ask what’s up. I just don’t get it.

Dino Rossi said that we need to move away from the gas tax since fewer people are driving.

Dino Rossi said today that we need an 8-lane 520 bridge because more people are driving.

The progressive group Fuse Washington calls for an investigation into Sutherland’s other big election year problem:

We call it the Katrina Syndrome – when a government agency’s failure to do its job compounds the suffering and destruction generated by a natural disaster. We saw it in New Orleans and now we see it right here in Washington with the massive storm that hit Chehalis last December.

Sunday’s Seattle Times featured a shocking investigative report on how widespread failures at the Department of Natural Resources (DNR), under Lands Commissioner Doug Sutherland, contributed to the landslides, flooding, and destruction during December’s storm. According to the Times, the DNR reduced monitoring and allowed Weyerhaeuser to clear-cut dangerous, unstable slopes with “scant oversight,” despite a history of landslides from previous logging, clear evidence of unstable slopes, and concerns from local officials.

Meanwhile, Commissioner Sutherland maintains that the Agency’s current oversight is “enough.” We also find it disturbing that the Timber Industry accounts for over half of the contributions to his re-election campaign.

We believe that accountability matters, and that the government — including the Department of Natural Resources — has a duty to enforce laws that protect public health and safety. Because Commissioner Sutherland refuses to clean up the DNR’s act, we are calling on the State Auditor to investigate the DNR’s failure to perform its responsibilities.

[You can sign their petition here.]

I don’t think I’ve seen a politician swivel so quickly from grabbing ass to covering ass.

Thankfully, we’ve got a great candidate in Peter Goldmark, who’s more “kick ass” than “grab ass”.

SurveyUSA has come out with their July poll in the Washington state gubernatorial contest. The poll shows Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) leading challenger Dino Rossi (GOP-Party) 49% to 46%. The poll of 666 people was taken from July 13th to July 15th.

The new poll follows the release of two other polls within the last week. A few days ago, Moore Information released a poll in this race that was taken from July 9 to July 10. It showed Gregoire and Rossi tied at 45%. The Moore Information poll was paid for by the Rossi campaign.

Last Friday, a poll was released by Rasmussen Reports, showing Gregoire leading Rossi, 49% to 43%. That poll was taken on July 9th. Gregoire led Rossi by single digit margins in all three June polls, including last month’s SurveyUSA poll that gave Gregoire a +3% advantage.

I’ll offer two Monte Carlo analyses using the new poll. First is an analysis of the poll numbers in the new SurveyUSA in order to estimate the probability that Gregoire (and Rossi) would win an election held right now. I simulated a million gubernatorial elections of 666 voters each, where each voter had a 49% chance of voting for Gregoire, a 46% chance of voting for Rossi and a 5% chance of voting for neither.

Gregoire won 780,736 of the simulated elections and Rossi won 11,542 times. This suggests that, in an election now, Gregoire would have a 79% probability of winning and Rossi would have a 21% probability of winning. A statistician would point out that Gregoire’s lead in this poll is within the margin of error (i.e. her probability of winning is less than 95%).

Here is a plot showing the distribution of votes in the million elections (blue bars are wins for Gregoire and red bars are Rossi wins):

The second analysis combines the polls from Rasmussen Reports, Moore Information, and SurveyUSA. Since the combined responses were all taken within one week, from July 9th through the 15th, we could look at the combined polls as the best evidence available for who would win the election now.

The combined polls yield a pool of 1,565 polled people, of whom 751 (48.0%) voted for Gregoire, 703 (44.9%) who voted for Rossi, and 111 (7.1%) who voted for neither. Again, I simulate 1,000,000 elections, this time with 1,565 people.

Gregoire won 893,646 of the simulated elections and Rossi won 101,700 times. The results suggest that, if an election were held now, Gregoire would win with an 89.9% probability, and Rossi would win with a 10.2% probability.

Here is a plot showing the distribution of votes in the million elections for the combined polls:

SurveyUSA also polled for the presidential election in Washington state. Sen. Barack Obama (D) leads Sen. John McCain (R) 55% to 39%. Obama’s lead is well outside the 3.9% margin of error for the poll.

(Cross-posted at Hominid Views.)

I’m blogging through Sunday from Netroots Nation in Austin… which probably means I won’t be blogging all that much. Just registered and got my goody bag, the most useful item being the bottle opener/key chain from Act Blue.

Another item that may come in handy is a t-shirt from ONE.org, which I’ll probably put on after I sweat through the half dozen other shirts I brought with me. It is so humid here, I’m sweating like a pig. Indoors. In air conditioning. And it’s only 8:30 AM. Can’t imagine the torment once the temperatures rise into the mid nineties.

Folks like to complain about Seattle’s endless rain, but my sixteen years in its temperate clime have turned me into a weather pussy.

UPDATE:
Sitting in a session, The Pundit Project: How To Outtalk The Talking Heads, my first of the convention, and looking around me it seems that at 45 years old, balding, and with a graying beard, I’m pretty much the median blogger.