1. 1

    proud leftist spews:

    If W had never quit drinking, and had never thereafter transferred his urges to more deleterious pursuits, this indeed would be a more wonderful world. Why couldn’t he have remained an innocuous cokehead, alcoholic, skirtchaser?

  2. 2

    michael spews:

    Part of an email Dino’s folks sent out:

    Dear Supporter,

    I wanted to take just two minutes of your time to update you on what is happening in our campaign.

    First, we are approaching a particularly important state filing deadline. As you may remember, nearly every month we have to report how much our campaign has raised and how much we have in the bank. And the deadline is just 15 hours away.

    This report is particularly important – Christine Gregoire, her union backers, and national Democrat leaders will all be looking closely at our report to try to determine the strength of our campaign as we head into the ‘top two’ primary election in just three weeks. The more we’ve raised, the stronger we will appear. That’s why your gift today is so critical.

  3. 3

    proud leftist spews:

    In attacking “union backers,” Dino reveals his ignorance of this state’s history. I wonder if he has a clue what a Wobbly is. Dino is not a smart man. Dino is dim. Why would anyone send money to Dino?

  4. 4

    Politically Incorrect spews:

    proud leftist said:

    “Why would anyone send money to Dino?”

    My guess is that they’d send money to Rossi because they don’t like Gregoire.

  5. 6

    Dumbest Senator Ever Murray spews:

    Dino is not a smart man. Dino is dim. Why would anyone send money to Dino?

    Beats me. Hey, you wouldn’t be interested in donating to the Bin Laden Hospital foundation Iam sponsering would ya.

  6. 7

    michael spews:

    From the latest post on Orcinus:

    In Tennessee this weekend, the chickens came home to roost when a gunman named James David Adkisson walked into a Unitarian Universalist Church and began shooting. So far, two people are dead, and seven more were wounded. He was saying “hateful things,” according to all the news reports.

    Naturally, right-wingers like the Ole Perfesser tried to fob it off on “Christian haters” — Adkisson was the son of a church deacon and evidently hated going to church. But that also ignores the fact that he identified himself as a “Confederate.”

    Now, MSNBC is reporting this morning that Adkisson targeted the church because of its liberal politics. A four-page letter police recovered, according to Knoxville police officials, referred constantly to his “stated hatred for the liberal movement.”

    Right-wingers love to “joke” about mowing down, rounding up, and otherwise “wiping out” all things liberal. It’s become a standard feature of conservative-movement rhetoric. And whenever anyone calls them on it, they have a standard response: “Aw, c’mon — it’s just a joke!”

    In reality, of course, rhetoric like this has historically played a critical role in some of the ugliest episodes in American history, as well as thousands of little acts of xenophobic brutality: functionally speaking, it gives violent — and frequently unstable — actors permission to act on these impulses. People like this always believe they’re standing up for what “real Americans” think — and the jokes tell them that this is so.

  7. 9

    ByeByeGOP spews:

    “The more we’ve raised, the stronger we will appear.”

    This tells you everything you need to know about the right wing ass-licks.

    They are NOT strong – nor does it appear that they are concerned about BEING strong. They just want to APPEAR strong.

    This bend-over, take-it-in-the-ass punk Rossi doesn’t have a chance to either be strong or even look strong.

    He DOES look and act and sound like a crybaby bitch.

    “A girl stole the election from me. WAAAAAAH.”

    Boo fucking hoo motherfucker.

  8. 10

    ByeByeGOP spews:

    Looks like they nailed Karl Rove’s character – the fellow portraying rove looks like a pedophile. But Barbara Bush – they missed her by a mile. The woman playing that character in the film isn’t remotely ugly enough to play that old battleaxe!

  9. 11

    The Real Mark spews:

    Have some fun with this one, kids:

    Oh, and I presume you’ve all read this:

    USA Today/Gallup (07/25 – 07/27)
    791 Likely voters
    McCain 49 (+4)
    Obama 45

    (Imagine what the numbers would be if McCain’s folks actually knew how to run a good campaign.)

  10. 12

    Rick D. spews:

    @ 10

    “- the fellow portraying Rove looks like a pedophile.”

    …Why? do you encounter him in the parks you frequent while scoping your next underage victim, goatfucker?

  11. 13

    Daddy Love spews:

    It’s hilarious that no one thinks McCain is going to win. Some people think Obama will win big, some think it will be close, but McCain’s got the big “L” on his forehead.

  12. 14

    Daddy Love spews:

    11 TRM

    You haven’t been paying attention, Mark. First, that poll result not only is an outlier among a slew of polls* that, averaged, give Barack Obama a consistent +3 lead (skewed downward by the Gallup anomaly), but also it is from an extremely small sample of 791 “likely voters” in which small sampling or weighting errors will have big effects. I know you’re clinging to this result with every last fingernail, but if I were you I wouldn’t put a lot of faith in its accuracy.

    * The other polls show Obama with leads of +8, +1, +5, +1, and +6.

  13. 15

    Rick D. spews:

    @ 13 ~ yeah, and it was hilarious in July of 2000 and 2004 as well wasn’t it?

    …when will you liberals learn that it’s “he who laughs last, laughs best”…

    Just ask Gore and Kerry, who certainly weren’t laughing in November of their respective years now were they? Hell, Gore even went off the mental deep end for about 2 years…Political PTSD so to speak and is now gun-shy about getting back in the fray. Instead choosing to be the high priest of Hypocrisy in the “church of global warming” cult.

    You kiddies should learn from the past so as not to repeat your mistakes in the future.

  14. 16

    Daddy Love spews:

    15 rd
    Oh, Rick, and I’m sure you were cheerleading for poor doomed Bob Dole as well, who never led in the polls (like McCain), who was too old (like McCain) and who had a tired, too-well-used laundry list of Republican tropes instead of new ideas (like McCain).

    The real truth though is that if you look at the map, McCain is not in position to pick up a single one of the formerly Democratic (2000-2004) states’ electoral votes, while Obama is poised to flip several formerly Republican states. It means an Obama win. Admit it. Get used to the feeling.

  15. 17

    The Real Mark spews:

    NAMBLA @ 14

    Don’t get your panties in a bunch, dimwit. I know it is an outlier — just like the Newsweek poll that showed 0bama with a 15 point lead — but that doesn’t stop Lefty geeks with calculators from trying to make 0bama’s (or Gregoire’s) slim lead into something it is not. Besides, polls at this point are about meaningless when it comes to predicting November.

    But the polls DO show that 0bama can’t close the deal, no matter what PR stunts he pulls. He’s a pretty boy with excellent handlers and a great ability to read from a TelePrompTer, but when the rubber meets the road, you can expect cooler heads (and the Bradley Effect) to prevail.

    Your quote at 13 is dead on:

    It’s hilarious that no one thinks McCain is going to win.

    You’re right. The press and you Lefties are definitely underestimating him.

  16. 18

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    The Police Blotter

    “An internal Justice Department report finds that Monica Goodling and Kyle Sampson, two former top aides to then-Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, violated the law by discriminating against job applicants in their search for GOP loyalists.”

    (Quoted from AP under fair use.)

    Roger Rabbit Commentary: I think I’ll kick things off today by tossing a crime report into the comments hopper.

  17. 19

    Tukow spews:

    * The other polls show Obama with leads of +8, +1, +5, +1, and +6.


    These polls distinguish between likely voters (3 polls) and registered voters (also 3 polls), which is a crucial distinction. Examined this way the results are:

    Registered voters: 8, 1 6 (3 poll average: 5)
    Likely voters: -4, 1, 5 (3 poll average: .67)

    where the number shows the Obama lead. The polls are listed chronologically, with the most recent first, and date from 07/25 – 07/27 to 07/18 – 07/21 (all from

    The difference in the poll results may reflect the fact that younger voters (big Obama supporters) are less likely to vote. They also reflect continuing hesitancy over Obama despite all the issues piled up against the Republicans.

    These results are still very early.

  18. 20

    Tukow spews:

    ps Gallup had two polls for 07/25 – 07/27. The USA Today/Gallup for likely voters had McCain up by 4. The Gallup for registered voters had Obama up by 8.

  19. 21

    YellowPup spews:

    I think it’s way too early for a W biopic. At least wait till the guy is out of office and the full extent of his crimes can be properly assessed. But then, I guess the point is to try to influence the 08 election. Too bad, there are so many more ridiculous things Bush might say/do in the remaining 6 months.

  20. 22

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    In the courts, a King County superior court judge denied a group of Mercer Island residents an injunction against a church that plans to host a tent city for homeless people.

    I don’t see any reason for our wingnut friends to object to this ruling. After all, the church grounds are private property so the church can do whatever it fucking pleases on its own property, right?

  21. 23

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    You Can Vote For Anyone You Want, As Long As He’s A Democrat

    Looks like voters in the 46th L.D. will have a choice between 2 Democrats this fall. No Republican candidate is running. There’s a third-party candidate of the “Cut Taxes G.O.P. Party,” but he’s unlikely to finish in the top two.

  22. 25

    ByeByeGOP spews:

    Hey Rick D/Puddylicker you seem very interested in knowing where to practice your child molestation – sorry – you’ll have to ask your pal Marvin you ass-licking traitor.

  23. 26

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Here’s the c.v. of the “Cut Taxes G.O.P. Party” candidate.

    “Current Occupation/Employer: Income Tax Preparer/Larry French & Associates

    “Education: University of Washington, BA 1977, Ingraham High School 1970

    “Elected Experience: For over 30 years my taxes have paid the salaries of elected politicians

    “Family: Single”

    Cripes. Thirty-one years after graduating from college, the guy works as a tax preparer, and can’t find a woman or political party willing to take him.

    Counting “paying taxes” as “elected experience” in his resume is downright funny. Especially because people like him talk about taxes the working class pays as if they were paying them. Which they’re generally not.

    Here’s his platform:


    * Over $100,000,000 of your taxes spent on illegal alien medical care

    * Over 1000 illegal aliens in Washington jails costing you $50,000,000

    * I will vote for I-409 in Olympia (

    “NO BIG DIG TUNNEL or “Surface” downgrade

    * 11 years HWY-99 construction would devastate economy and your job!

    * 14 hours of daily I-5 gridlock and $500 Million increase to your utility bills.

    * Tunnel now $4.63 Billion! And you didn’t even get to vote… until now!”

    Okay, this dude’s platform is to kick illegals out of our jails so we don’t have to support them with our taxes. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays with the law-and-order crowd he’s presumably attempting to pander to. I can see why he’s still a tax preparer, but I’d like to know how he swindled the U.W. into giving him a degree?

  24. 27

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    According to The Stranger, another candidate in that race is running under the “Grand Old Party” banner.

    It sure looks like the Republican Party is defunct in Washington! At least, no candidate wants to be known as a “Republican” or even as a “GOP” candidate!

    We’re sure to see a lot more artful acronyns and creative torturing of the English language as Republican candidates struggle to be known as anything but Republicans.

    Can’t say as I really blame them. The Republican brand name is pretty fucked these days. The public associates “Republicans” with warmongering, torturing, lying, stealing, and airport rest room gloryholing.

  25. 28

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    I pulled a blurb about the other 46th L.D. race off a blog called “Clear Fog Blog” run by a guy who says he’s a Boeing manager and brags he was the last Republican elected to the legislature from the 43rd L.D. (he served 1 term in the ’70s). Here’s what he says about the 46 L.D. race:

    “Republican John Sweeney is challenging incumbent Rep. Phyllis Kenney, a liberal’s liberal who, for the sake of taxpayers if nothing else, needs to be replaced. John is an extremely well qualified candidate, almost better than the Soviet of Seattle deserves. But who knows, with ballooning taxes, ever more stringent restrictions on personal freedom and, of course, loss of the Sonics, maybe enough voters will wake up and revolt at the polls.”

    Hmmm. Well, Mr. Peterson gets off on the right foot by naming his blog “Clear Fog” because he certainly is a gentleman of contradictions. Given that the Sonics demanded a $500 million handout from taxpayers as the price of staying in Seattle, how is keeping the Sonics consistent with cutting taxes? I mean, how do you reconcile these seemingly contradictory positions? I suppose the same way you fight a $2 trillion war and cut taxes at the same time: By saddling other people with involuntary debt. And, of course, no one excels at restricting personal freedoms like Republicans, who author laws that allow the government to not only spy on you without a judicial warrant, but lets the government throw your neighborhood librarian into a gulag if she tells you they’re spying on you. I hope Boeing doesn’t let this guy test-fly airplanes.

  26. 30

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @3 Don’t underestimate how many Joe Republicans are out there. This state is full of people who took the wages and benefits that unions won for them, then turned around and voted Republican, which is the same thing as giving those wages and benefits back to their employers, only they’re too stupid to know it.

  27. 31

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Day in the Life of Joe Republican

    By John Gray Cincinnati, Ohio

    Joe gets up at 6:00am to prepare his morning coffee. He fills his pot full of good clean drinking water because some liberal fought for minimum water quality standards. He takes his daily medication with his first swallow of coffee. His medications are safe to take because some liberal fought to insure their safety and work as advertised.

    All but $10.00 of his medications are paid for by his employer’s medical plan because some liberal union workers fought their employers for paid medical insurance, and now Joe gets it too. He prepares his morning breakfast, bacon and eggs this day. Joe’s bacon is safe to eat because some liberal fought for laws to regulate the meat packing industry.

    Joe takes his morning shower reaching for his shampoo; his bottle is properly labeled with every ingredient and the amount of its contents because some liberal fought for his right to know what he was putting on his body and how much it contained. Joe dresses, walks outside and takes a deep breath. The air he breathes is clean because some tree hugging liberal fought for laws to stop industries from polluting our air. He walks to the subway station for his government subsidized ride to work; it saves him considerable money in parking and transportation fees. You see, some liberal fought for affordable public transportation, which gives everyone the opportunity to be a contributor.

    Joe begins his work day; he has a good job with excellent pay, medical benefits, retirement, paid holidays and vacation because some liberal union members fought and died for these working standards. Joe’s employer pays these standards because Joe’s employer doesn’t want his employees to call the union. If Joe is hurt on the job or becomes unemployed he’ll get a worker compensation or unemployment check because some liberal didn’t think he should loose his home because of his temporary misfortune.

    Its noon time, Joe needs to make a bank deposit so he can pay some bills. Joe’s deposit is federally insured by the FDIC because some liberal wanted to protect Joe’s money from unscrupulous bankers who ruined the banking system before the depression.

    Joe has to pay his Fannie Mae underwritten mortgage and his below market federal student loan because some stupid liberal decided that Joe and the government would be better off if he was educated and earned more money over his life-time.

    Joe is home from work; he plans to visit his father this evening at his farm home in the country. He gets in his car for the drive to dad’s; his car is among the safest in the world because some liberal fought for car safety standards. He arrives at his boyhood home. He was the third generation to live in the house financed by Farmers Home Administration because bankers didn’t want to make rural loans. The house didn’t have electricity until some big government liberal stuck his nose where it didn’t belong and demanded rural electrification. (Those rural Republicans would still be sitting in the dark.)

    He is happy to see his dad who is now retired. His dad lives on Social Security and a union pension because some liberal made sure he could take care of himself so Joe wouldn’t have to. After his visit with dad he gets back in his car for the ride home.

    He turns on a radio talk show. The host keeps saying that liberals are bad and conservatives are good. (He doesn’t tell Joe that his beloved Republicans have fought against every protection and benefit Joe enjoys throughout his day.) Joe agrees, “We don’t need those big government liberals ruining our lives; after all, I’m a self made man who believes everyone should take care of themselves, just like I have.”

  28. 32

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @4 My guess is anyone who sends money to Rossi knows nothing about either Rossi or Gregoire.

  29. 34

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @11 Whose imagination did you pull those numbers out of? The latest Gallup poll I saw has Obama up by 9% (Obama 49% vs. McCain 40%).

  30. 35

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Rickie Dickless @12: You’re not allowed to use the expression “goatfucker.” We copyrighted it. It belongs to our side.

    P.S., you shouldn’t eat goat cheese because that would be cannibalism.

  31. 37

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @16 I actually voted for Dole. Can you believe that? I don’t know what got into me. But I’m okay now.

  32. 38

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @20 So you’re saying the only way McCain can win is by the GOP suppressing legal votes? I agree with that.

  33. 39

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    As long as I’m talking about vote suppression, I may as well remind everyone how the GOP fucked over our soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan in the last presidential election:

    “A confidential campaign directed by GOP party chiefs in October 2004 sought to challenge the ballots of tens of thousands of voters in the last presidential election, virtually all of them cast by residents of Black-majority precincts.

    “Files from the secret vote-blocking campaign were obtained by BBC Television Newsnight, London. They were attached to emails accidentally sent by Republican operatives to a non-party website.

    “One group of voters wrongly identified by the Republicans as registering to vote from false addresses: servicemen and women sent overseas.

    “Here’s how the scheme worked: The RNC mailed these voters letters in envelopes marked, ‘Do not forward’, to be returned to the sender. These letters were mailed to servicemen and women, some stationed overseas, to their US home addresses. The letters then returned to the Bush-Cheney campaign as ‘undeliverable.’ The lists of soldiers of ‘undeliverable’ letters were transmitted from state headquarters … to the RNC in Washington. The party could then challenge the voters’ registration and thereby prevent their absentee ballots being counted.

    “One target list was comprised exclusively of voters registered at the Jacksonville, Florida, Naval Air Station. … [See this scrub sheet at;size=o ] …

    “A soldier returning home in time to vote in November 2004 could also be challenged on the basis of the returned envelope. Soldiers challenged would be required to vote by ‘provisional’ ballot. Over one million provisional ballots cast in the 2004 race were never counted; over half a million absentee ballots were also rejected. The extraordinary rise in the number of rejected ballots was the result of the widespread multi-state voter challenge campaign by the Republican Party. …

    “The BBC obtained several dozen confidential emails sent by the Republican’s national Research Director and Deputy Communications chief, Tim Griffin to GOP Florida campaign chairman Brett Doster and other party leaders. Attached were spreadsheets marked, ‘Caging.xls.’ Each of these contained several hundred to a few thousand voters and their addresses. A check of the demographics of the addresses on the ‘caging lists,’ as the GOP leaders called them indicated that most were in African-American majority zip codes.

    “Ion Sanco, the non-partisan elections supervisor of Leon County (Tallahassee) when shown the lists by this reporter said: ‘The only thing I can think of – African American voters listed like this – these might be individuals that will be challenged if they attempted to vote on Election Day.’ …

    “The Republican National Committee in Washington refused our several requests to respond to the BBC discovery. … The party has refused to say why it would mark soldiers as having ‘bad addresses’ subject to challenge when they had been assigned abroad. …

    “Setting up such a challenge list would be a crime under federal law. …

    “Soldiers sending in their ballot from abroad would not know their vote was lost because of a challenge.”

    Quoted under Fair Use; for complete article and/or copyright info see

  34. 40

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    It’s not even 9:30 a.m., and I’ve already made $1,300 in the stock market today! Sure beats working. And how many employers would pay you $162.50 an hour (based on an 8-hour day)? Wal-Mart sure doesn’t! I don’t see why anyone works when you can make that kind of money by sitting on your fat ass doing nothing. And you don’t have to fight traffic, pay for gas, plus you get a 66% discount on your income taxes that the working class doesn’t get! Our economic, political, and social system despises workers. Therefore, no one should do any work.

  35. 41

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    There’s more stuff in today’s fishwrapper about the motorist-cyclists clash on Capitol Hill the other day. There’s probably no innocent parties in that affair, but I admit to a bias against bycicles that I acquired by getting run over in downtown crosswalks twice in three days by aggressive cyclists some years. I don’t like aggressive cyclists, and too damn many cyclists are aggressive and have chips on their shoulders.

    To me, the path to peaceful coexistence between cyclists and the rest of us is very simple: Cyclists should be licensed and insured so they can be held responsible if they hurt people, and when they use public streets they should be required to obey the same traffic laws as cars, and should be cited and fined when they run red lights or violate other traffic rules. If they don’t like that, then I’ll up the ante by saying let’s make them to help pay for the streets they use by taxing the privilege of riding a bicycle on said streets. But I’m willing to let them continue freeloading on the motorist-financed streets if they’ll simply obey the traffic laws and stop running down defenseless pedestrians and rabbits.

    If they don’t, fuck ‘em, I’d vote to kick them off the public wayfares — just ban the goddam bicycles if that’s the only way we can assure the safety of old people, children, and rabbits on our public streets and sidewalks.

  36. 42

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    I suppose #41 will irritate some of my liberal pals, but they should get their cute fluffy cottontails squished sometime, to know what it feels like.

  37. 43

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Now here’s an idea: Hire Critical Mass to get information out of al Qaeda detainees. Sure that’s against the Geneva Convention, but what the hell, America has already torn up that treaty and everyone knows it. Yes, it’ll create problems for our pilots and soldiers if they get captured by China — they have a lot of bicycles in that country. But that’s the necessary price of freedom! Freedom is not free. There will be casualties, and we have to accept that fact.

  38. 44

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Roger Rabbit has posted 50% of the comments in this thread. If you don’t like it, lick a rabbit dick! For a good time, call 1-900-SUCK-ROG. All proceeds go to the Help Roger Rabbit Live Like A Republican Fund!

  39. 45

    correctnotright spews:

    Looks like goldy was right about the Tenesseee psychopath who shot up a church – to “go after the liberals”.

    Goldy postulated that hate speech from right wingnuts influenced the guy – and now we hear from the police:
    “Adkisson told officers he left the house unlocked for them because “he expected to be killed during the assault.”

    Inside the house, officers found “Liberalism is a Mental Health Disorder” by radio talk show host Michael Savage, “Let Freedom Ring” by talk show host Sean Hannity, and “The O’Reilly Factor,” by television talk show host Bill O’Reilly.”

    “Police found right-wing political books, brass knuckles, empty shotgun shell boxes and a handgun in the Powell home of a man who said he attacked a church in order to kill liberals “who are ruining the country, court records show.”

    “Adkisson targeted the church, Still wrote in the document obtained by WBIR-TV, Channel 10, “because of its liberal teachings and his belief that all liberals should be killed because they were ruining the country, and that he felt that the Democrats had tied his country’s hands in the war on terror and they had ruined every institution in America with the aid of media outlets.”

    Gee – he sounds just like O’Reilly, Coulter and some of the unhinged right wing nuts trolls on this blog…hmmmm.

  40. 46

    mactac spews:

    Roger Rabbit has posted 50% of the comments in this thread.


    You’re right – this is a better use of your time than practicing law!

  41. 47

    YLB spews:

    45 – Hmmmm. Just the kind of books you’d find in Surreal Mark’s library.

    LMAO @ Surreal Mark by the way. No one’s too enthused (even among previous R voters) for 4 more years of the McSame.

  42. 48

    ByeByeGOP spews:

    @48 wow that’s important because the survivors can use that evidence to sue Handjob Hannity and his band of lying traitors and ass-lickers. Swwwweeeeet!

  43. 49

    Daddy Love spews:

    19 Tukow

    The difference in the poll results may reflect the fact that younger voters (big Obama supporters) are less likely to vote. They also reflect continuing hesitancy over Obama despite all the issues piled up against the Republicans.

    To your credit, you do seem to realize that the model for “likely voters” is all-important here (in addition to the small sample size I mentioned, which makes it less accurate but not necessarily skewed).

    So what are the assumptions that Gallup builds into its LV model? It’s not about “younger voters” at all, who are left out of EVERYONE’s model and who make it certain that Obama’s real support will be underestimated.

    No, the answer is simple: Gallup is reducing the number of independents and inflating Republican numbers in its LV sample. And this in a year where we’ve been told by other pollsters that the GOP is less than enthusiastic about McCain as the nominee and in a year where many independents will turn out. Here’s the sample for that LV poll:

    Gallup Likely Voter Sample
    July 25-27 USAT Poll
    McCain Leads 49%-44%

    Republican: 34%
    Independent: 29%
    Democrat: 36%

    For comparison, this is the sample composition of a Gallup poll just three weeks ago:

    June 5-July 6, 2008 Poll
    Republican: 21%
    Independent: 38%
    Democrat: 35%

    So what changed in the last three weeks in this race for Gallup to depress the independent numbers in their likely voter sample and inflate GOP numbers? The answer? NOTHING.

  44. 50

    mactac spews:

    @49 To your credit, you do seem to realize that the model for “likely voters” is all-important here

    Daddyo, to your discredit you didn’t in your initial post @14.

    So what changed in the last three weeks in this race for Gallup to depress the independent numbers in their likely voter sample and inflate GOP numbers? The answer? NOTHING.

    Not according to Gallup:

    You may disagree with their reasoning (on what qualified grounds one may ask, though), but they explain their reasoning in detail. They’re certainly more aware than you of the vagaries of polling, and say so. Do your homework . . .

  45. 51

    Daddy Love spews:

    50 M

    If you think that a 34% Republican representation and only 21% Independent representation truly captures the “likely voter,” I’ve got some beachfront land in Florida I’d like to talk to you about.

    I’m just saying, no other pollster shows McCain getting this kind of support, and I think it’s because the Gallup model is not only flawed but skewed GOP.

  46. 52

    rhp6033 spews:

    I’m having a hard time believing any poll numbers right now, given the interest by young people in this race, and their propensity to not to have land telephone lines. Since pollsters don’t target cell phones, it’s unlikely those potential voters are being represented in the polling samples.

    Also, the difficulty in young people getting housing means that many are still living at home well into their 20’s, and if the household land line rings it is probably their parents that will answer it – they only answer their cell phone. So that one person who answers the survey might not well represent even his/her household, much less the democraphic he/she is supposed to represent.

    Even without the young people supporting Obama, it looks like he will take all the states Gore did in 2000, plus several more, given him the election. If Obama can turn initial enthusiasm by young people into actual votes, it could be a blowout. (Imagine a 20% increase in voter participation in the next election, with almost all of that increase going to Obama!).

  47. 53

    rhp6033 spews:

    By the way, I’m no fan of Oliver Stone when he takes on history issues. I think he takes too many liberties with his subject. I wish someone else had taken on a definitive Bush biography.