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Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 378 electoral votes	Mean of 160 electoral votes

My last analysis was about three weeks ago, and former Vice President Joe Biden was leading President Donald Trump by 375 to 163 electoral votes. After adding about 150 new polls and undertaking 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins all 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 378 to Trump’s 160 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

I decided to do an extended set of simulated elections every seven days over the past year, where each simulation includes polls from the preceding month (FAQ). The resulting plot shows that Trump has been losing ground in the electoral college totals since early April.

For the simulated elections for today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ]:
[Read more…]

I am glad that the Federal agents are out of Seattle. And credit where it’s due to state and local officials who made it happen.

That said, the Feds are not the ones who were out of control over the weekend. So this doesn’t mean defund and reform of the police is any less important.

Also, wash your hands right now.

Stay cool everyone. Today is going to be too damn hot. Every year there are a few days where I think that I should get air conditioning.

Drink lots of water. Like, more than you think you need. You will want to get to the point where you are peeing clear. And when you’ve finished peeing wash your hands. Also, wash them right now.

The Late Show: Ted Cruz warns Texas about the Blue Wave.

Trevor: Remembering John Lewis

Samantha Bee: From Hopeless to Hope-ish with Masha Gessen

Mother Jones: Mitch McConnell refuses to honor John Lewis’ legacy.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Liars, Scoundrels, and Treason Weasels:

• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп does Portland like Putin did Crimea
• Stephen: Mary Trump says The Dotard demonstrates sociopathic tendencies
• Meidas Touch: Трамп threatens America
• Trevor: Трамп sends federal agents to break up Portland protests
• The Late Show: Person, woman, man, camera, TV—The movie
• Seth Meyers: Late Night White House press briefing
• Bruce W. Nelson: The Трамп law and order song
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп as Fredo Corleone
• Jordan Klepper: The Dotard’s boat rally.
• Stephen: Ava DuVernay—Трамп’s assault on Portland isn’t a Republican vs. Democrat issue
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп’s shocking interview with FAUX News’ Chris Wallace
• The Late Show: Let’s extend a warm Chicago welcome to Трамп’s secret police
• Really American: Dictator Трамп:

• Jonathan Mann: The president is playing golf
• John Di Domenico: Трамп RANTS. Cognitive test genius! Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV. Cat. Easy test.
• Meidas Touch: Unpresidented idiot—The Dotard humiliates himself on FAUX News
• Stephen: Mary Trump felt an obligation to write a book about The Dotard
• The Late Show: Cognitive test elephant calls out The Dotard Трамп
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп and freedom of speech
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard’s Goya food fight
• Trevor: The truth behind Трамп’s “intelligence test”
• The Late Show: Everyone is super impressed that Трамп passed his cognitive test
• Really American: End the nightmare in Portland
• Don Winslow Films: #AmericasGreatestMistake
• Foundation Singers: We are the worst!:

• Stephen: Trump proves his cognitive abilities with five magical words—Person, woman, man, camera, TV
• Jonathan Mann: Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV.
• Songify The News: Трамп vs. Test – Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV.
• Lauren Mayer: The “Person Woman Man Camera TV” song
• Bruce W. Nelson: “Person, Woman, Man, Camera, TV”, the song Трамп plans to sing at the RNC
• The Lincoln Project: Трампfeld
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s insane Chris Wallace interview; secret police in Portland
• Mark Fiore: The very stable genius
• Sarah Cooper: How to person woman man camera tv
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard reads Mary Trump’s book
• Bruce W. Nelson: Ain’t never dreamt of sleeping with Betsy DeVos
• Trevor: Трамп’s brutal interview with Chris Wallace
• Jonathan Mann: Christopher David:

• Meidas Touch: Enough is enough—Трамп gestapo attacks Navy veteran in Portland
• Really American: Cognitive Трамп
• Courtney Jaye: #DementiaDon
• Seth Meyers: Трамп obsesses over his cognitive test, deploys more secret police
• Bruce W. Nelson: People say he was born without testicles
• Stephen: Трамп sends thugs to arrest Portland protesters, threatens Chicago and New York
• Desi Lydic interviews Uncle Rudy Giuliani
• Jonathan Mann: Moms are the best
• Meidas Touch: The Dotard Трамп is a disaster
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп reads John Bolton’s book
• Stephen: Mary Trump is pretty sure The Dotard failed his cognitive test
• Really American: Gestapo Трамп

Brave New Films: How prisons abuse the mentally ill

Stephen: A crowd surfing American hero—Remembering Congressman John Lewis.

Robert Reich: Reimagining public safety.

The Late Show: The King of Caveat knights Rep. Ted Yoho.

Now This: 93-year-old convicted in one of the last Nazi trials ever.

ТрампPlague:

• Jen Houston: Trump & DeVos get an ‘F’ for protecting kids
• Trevor: The class of COVID-19—School reopening still unclear
• Seth Meyers: Трамп shares photo of himself wearing a face mask and other news
• Really American: Flunk Трамп
• Trevor: Susan Rice on working on a pandemic plan & watching Трамп trash it
• J-L Cauvin: 25 years of Mike Pence coronavirus briefings in a minute!
• The Late Show: Gamblers bet on Mike Pence sending his kids into a death trap
• Samantha Bee: Deniers, dimwits, and lies—How governors have responded to the pandemic, Pt. 1
• Samantha Bee: Deniers, dimwits, and lies—How governors have responded to the pandemic, Pt. 2
• Meidas Touch: Protect our kids
• The Daily Show: Back to school—Corona sale!
• Seth Meyers: Gov. Gavin Newsom (Josh Meyers) on California’s second coronavirus lockdown
• Randy Rainbow: Gee, Anthony Fauchi!:

• Trevor: If you don’t know, now you know—COVID-19 vs. 1918 “Spanish” flu
• Seth Meyers: Al Gore explains what COVID-19 and climate change have in common
• Don Winslow Films: #KeepYourChildHome
• Stephen: Greta Thunberg on environmental activism in the time of coronavirus
• The Late Show: Karen, please just wear a mask
• John Di Domenico: Трамп rants and hypes rebooted corona task force show!
• Trevor: Dr. Michele Harper on fighting on the front lines of the pandemic
• Priorities USA: Cases, updated.
• The Daily Show: The 1918 “Spanish” flu vs. COVID-19. Spot the difference.
• John Oliver: Corona conspiracy theories
• Seth Meyers: Трамп holds coronavirus briefing and threatens to send more secret police
• Trevor: Трамп’s “new tone” on coronavirus?
• Stephen: A desperate Трамп promises new covid strategy….

Samantha Bee offers name alternatives for racist sports teams.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Seth Meyers: Joy Reid on White people joining the Black Lives Matter movement

Stephen: Greta Thunberg—Humanity is “setting fire to the boat” instead of facing the climate crisis.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I am glad that the Washington State eviction moratorium has been extended. I am also glad that Governor Inslee is preparing the way for a future extension. This crisis isn’t going anywhere until there’s a vaccine, or at the very least, competent Federal leadership.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now.

Congrats to the activists who seem to be getting the youth jail closed by 2025. There’s still work to do, but this is a great direction. It would have been better if it hadn’t been built in the first place. Still and all, it’s a victory.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

I should probably write something…

Listen, I hate to do anything to benefit Portland, but if you’re able people I follow on social media recommended bail funds here. It’s scary what’s going on down there. The local police are scary enough, but add in the Feds kidnapping people off the street, and holy shit. Anyway, do what you can if you can.

Also, wash your hands right now.

Desi Lydic FAUXSplains “cancel culture”.

Bruce W. Nelson: Tucker Carlson’s the poster boy for meritless White privilege.

Now This: Militarized federal agents are seizing U.S. protesters in Portland

Stephen: W. Kamau Bell—America was built on White supremacy. it won’t go away until we redesign the system.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

The Dotard Трамп and His Barrel of Swamp Monkeys:

• Now This: Why this long time Republican rejects Трамп
• Trevor: Ivanka’s Goya support, Mary Трамп’s new book
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп mourns 7/11
• The Late Show: Attorney General Barr dodges Roger Stone question with his fortress
• Mark Fiore: Presidential clearinghouse sweepstakes!
• Stephen: Трамп supporter behind crumbling border wall segment wins $1.7B contract to build more wall
• Sarah Cooper: How to immigration policy
• John Di Domenico: Трамп rant Part 1—“I barely know Mary “Loser” Трамп & her book is full of LIES!”
• John Di Domenico: Трамп rant Part 2—SLAMS, Mary Trump: “TRUE, I DID hire someone to take SAT’s but still a liar!”
• Lauren Mayer: “(Ivanka tells me) find something new”:

• The Late Show: Goya bean can claps back at Ivanka Трамп
• Bruce W. Nelson: Take the the Трамп dumb-ass song challenge!
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп is hacked and attacked on Twitter!!!
• The Late Show: We must stop dogs from voting in the 2020 election
• The Daily Show: What was The Dotard asked about?
• Sarah Cooper: How to AIDS vaccine
• Seth Meyers: Трамп shakes up campaign as Biden’s lead grows
• The Late Show: Ivanka Трамп loves her beans!
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп hates Mary Трамп’s new book!
• Trevor: Hillary Clinton on voter suppression, The Dotard, and Roger Stone.
• Bruce W. Nelson: ObamaCare, Трамп no care at all
• The Late Show: President Трамп’s everything quits
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard reacts to #CreepyTrump

Vox: The fight for America’s 51st state, explained.

Jimmy Fallon: Stacey Abrams breaks down how to dismantle voter suppression.

Seth Meyers: Sen. Tammy Duckworth calls Tucker Carlson a gnat.

WaPo: 50 nights of protests—What you need to know about the tension in Portland.

Trevor: Biden’s poll numbers surge, but will 2020 be another 2016?

Mother Jones: Deconstructing the design and demolition of Confederate monuments.

ТрампPlague:

• Trevor: California rolls back reopening
• The Late Show: Does Трамп’s anti-Fauci ad make you doubt the doctor?
• Seth Meyers: Трамп and his allies want you to “adapt” to the coronavirus crisis
• The Daily Show: Трамп & FAUX News’s premature coronavirus celebration
• Conan: Conan gets answers about Трамп & Dr. Fauci’s relationship
• Stephen: GOP lawmakers set to skip Трамп’s convention in Jacksonville as Florida’s covid numbers spike
• Trevor: Трамп wears a mask & the White House goes after Fauci
• FoD: Ode to Masks
• Jimmy Fallon: Rep. Val Demings calls out The Dotard’s response to COVID-19
• The Late Show: Betsy DeVos stars in “The Tragic School Bus”
• Stephen: Trump’s new coronavirus plan—Threaten America’s schools, trash Dr. Fauci in the press
• Trevor: Rep. Katie Porter on when and how should schools reopen?
• John Di Domenico: The Dotard finally wears a mask & loves it!
• The Daily Show The White House blames Fauci
• Seth Meyers: The Dotard Трамп is the last person we can trust to safely reopen schools
• Conan: The CDC’s confusing COVID-19 recommendations
• Lauren Mayer: You’re never fully dressed without a mask
• The Late Show: Coughing Republican Congressman
• Samantha Bee: The dangerous spread of mask hysteria, Pt. 1
• Samantha Bee: The dangerous spread of mask hysteria, Pt. 2
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп finally wears a mask in public
• Trevor: Should kids go back to school this fall?
• Stephen: Трамп’s secretive covid data-grab overshadows good news about a promising vaccine

Roll Call: Democrats well positioned to take the Senate.

Samantha Bee: : The Homophobic History of Blood Donation, Pt. 1

Samantha Bee: : The Homophobic History of Blood Donation, Pt. 2

Jonathan Mann: Socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor:

Mother Jones: Why scientists are so worried about this glacier.

Dulcé Sloan: Census suppression and why it matters.

Courtney Jaye: Get lost @TuckerCarlson.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

They’re breaching a dam on the Nooksack River. It seems like it will help with salmon and trout recovery. Very exciting, and I hope it leads to more dam removal around the state.

But for now, wash your hands.

Sorry I didn’t post this morning. I had some work stuff early this morning and then I forgot to write it at lunch. So um. Here it is now.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Your primary ballots are dropping this week. So I guess look out for them next week. And then you will have until August 4 to get your ballot postmarked or dropped off.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now.

Now This: Artists protest immigrant detention with skywriting

Robert Reich: Monopoly mayhem—Corporations win, workers lose.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Racist, Sexual Preditors, and Con-men:

• Rachel Maddow: Трамп scandals pass by, lose spotlight to new Трамп scandals
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard’s cognitive test revealed
• The Late Show: Mount Rushmore Presidents leave Трамп’s 4th celebration early
• WaPo: What Mary Трамп’s book tells us about “dysfunctional” Трамп family
• Randy Rainbow: Poor deplorable troll:

• Now This: Clammer says Трамп’s climate agenda is “treason”
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп remixes the Independence Day speech
• Rachel Maddow: Rep. Adam Schiff, Трамп commuting Stone an appalling attack on rule of law
• WaPo: Трамп’s tax returns and other Supreme Court rulings, explained by Ruth Marcus
• John Di Domenico: Трамп RANTS about fake news reaction to MT. Rushmore 4th of July speech!
• J-L Cauvin: The Трамп workout
• Jordan Klepper versus Трамп supporters.
• The Late Show: A mystic caterpillar makes sense of Kayleigh McEnany’s address
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп threatens to take away casinos
• Mother Jones: The Supreme Court just told Трамп, “You’re not above the law.”
• Foundation Singers: Amazing waste:

• Rachel Maddow: William Barr “decapitates” third U.S. Attorney’s office looking at Трамп
• J-L Cauvin: Did The Dotard fake his SAT scores
• Sarah Cooper: How to cognitive
• The Late Show: Трамп ass-kissing garbage makes a horse sing
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп EXPLODES on Brett Kavanaugh after taxes case!!!

Anthony Anderson: Political monologue.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

ТрампPlague:

• Chris Hayes: How Трамп’s hurricane Maria response foreshadowed his coronavirus failure
• Sarah Cooper: How to mask
• Now This: Watching FAUX News coincides with higher COVID-19 death rates
• The New York Times: How ICE helped spread the coronavirus
• WaPo: Трамп vs. the coronavirus:

• Chris Hayes: GOP is becoming a pro-virus party before our eyes
• Matthew Buechele: If people today were on the Titanic….
• Trevor: Growing up in the time of corona
• Rachel Maddow: Coronavirus follows Трамп on tour
• Now This: Bill Nye conducts a mask experiment
• Chris Hayes: The last person we should trust with safety of kids
• Vox: How humans are making pandemics more likely
• The Late Show: Mount Rushmore Presidents leave Трамп’s 4th celebration early

Roy Zimmerman: The Orange County Rolling Acres Senior Center Cannabis Club

Now This: Joe Biden and Ady Barkan on the future of long-term healthcare.

Black Lives Matter:

• Jaboukie Young-White in quarantine
• BuzzFeed: Why police reform doesn’t work in the U.S.
• AJ+: I was nearly lynched on Independence Day
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Police body cam shows George Floyd’s last word was “please”
• Anthony Anderson chats with Bubba Wallace
• Lauren Mayer: Stand Up and Act (Words Are Just the Beginning)
• The New York Times: What it means to be policed in America
• VICE News: Are the Boogaloo Bois a national security threat?

WaPo: Biden’s $700 billion economic plan, in 4 minutes.

The Late Show: Aliens discover racist Tucker Carlson.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

The Seattle City Council has committed to defunding the police department by 50%. Will replacing police duties with people from other city departments work? Will it provide better service? Will it reduce police shootings and other escalation of force? Will it reduce crime? I don’t know. But the status quo is not working.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Tim Eyman is a horse’s ass. But he’s also the only one of the Republicans running for governor who I had any idea about. Who else is running? Wasn’t there some guy who wasn’t going to enforce gun laws? Is he doing anything recentlOHGOD.

In a long-running lawsuit, a woman accuses police and deputies in Ferry County of failing to properly investigate when she reported a pattern of rape and molestation spanning 12 years of her childhood.

Among the defendants is Loren Culp, who is now the police chief in the town of Republic and a Republican candidate for Washington governor. The lawsuit alleges Culp and two other law enforcement officers intimidated the victim, threatened to charge her with making false claims and failed to report her allegations to child welfare authorities as required by law.

Of course a lawsuit filed isn’t the same as all of the accusations proven. But yikes.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 375 electoral votes	Mean of 163 electoral votes

My previous analysis of the Biden-Trump head-to-head polls was way back in early June, in part because the dynamics of the race didn’t seem to be changing much. Trump is slowly slipping in the polls, as the COVID-19 epidemic worsens in the U.S., as Trump resists movements for police reforms, and as we learn bizarre things like Trump not responding to Russian bounties on American soldiers in Afghanistan.

After 100,000 simulated elections, the results are not surprising. Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 375 to Trump’s 163 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Basically, if the election was today, Biden would win in a landslide.

Trump has a serious electoral college problem. Many swing states are now trending strongly for Biden, including Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Other swing states are pretty solidly in Biden’s camp, like Arizona, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Even Ohio trends slightly toward Biden. Iowa and Texas are in toss-up territory, but leaning slightly toward Trump. Remarkable!

The trend over the past couple months are clear from from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from Jul 2019 to the present, and, at each point in time, including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

There is, of course, plenty of time to turn this trend around. Still, Trump’s bizarre and impulsive behavior will make doing that very difficult.

[Read more…]