HorsesAss.Org

I am very uncomfortable with Pac 12 football starting again. The expanded testing is good, but geez so many of the programs that have started playing games have met with pretty serious problems. I can’t imagine there not being a major outbreak in one, and probably several, of the teams.

I certainly don’t want to blame individual players who want to play. To lose a whole year is awful. But it’s got to be up to governments and institutions to step in for public health.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 380 electoral votes	Mean of 158 electoral votes

Some 40 new state head-to-head polls have been released since my previous analysis was posted last Friday. Many of the new polls have been taken partially or fully after the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, an event that could possibly change the dynamics of the Presidential race between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump. If so, it has not affected the expected outcome of a (hypothetical) election held now.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 380 to Trump’s 158 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Last week’s analysis gave Biden 389 and Trump 149 electoral votes (on average) so, for the moment, Biden has stopped gaining electors, although it is too early to say that Trump has the momentum going forward. With newly released polls, Trump made modest gains in Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district (13% to 39% probability of winning that district’s elector) and Texas (22% to 48% probability of winning the state). He made smaller gains in Georgia (12% to 15%), North Carolina (23% to 29%) and South Carolina (92% to 96%). At the same time, Trump lost modest ground in Alabama (100% to 77%) and Louisiana (100% to 87%) and lost a bit of ground in Iowa (66% to 63%).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

• 369 electoral votes with a 2.55% probability
• 360 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability
• 413 electoral votes with a 2.05% probability
• 389 electoral votes with a 2.00% probability
• 407 electoral votes with a 1.78% probability
• 375 electoral votes with a 1.78% probability
• 397 electoral votes with a 1.68% probability
• 385 electoral votes with a 1.66% probability
• 406 electoral votes with a 1.57% probability
• 395 electoral votes with a 1.54% probability

The long term trend in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 23-Sep-2019 to 23-Sep-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (when possible…see the FAQ).

[Read more…]

The judicial norms breaking is leading nowhere good. But unilateral norms breaking seems bad too. So here is my proposal if the Republicans nominate and approve a Justice to replace RBG and Democrats get a trifecta.

First off, do the maximum judicial stuff. Add 100 seats to the Supreme Court. Strip the lower courts of power, replace them with a different system, and fill that with liberal judges. The whole 9 yards.

While this is happening, propose an amendment to the Constitution. Many states have commissions or other means of making judicial appointments fair. Pick the best one and adopt it. It also fires all judges except for cases they are working on. If Republicans want a cease fire, they can pass the amendment, if not at least there will be a liberal court for a while.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Anarchy. Anarchy anarchy anarchy. Anarchy. ANARCHY.

Wash your hands right now.

act.tv: RFK’s ripple of hope still matters today.

Eleven Films: Unite against the violence.

Biden-Harris 2020:

• Trevor: Biden’s “Despacito” outreach & Трамп’s disastrous town hall
• Now This: Former Pence staffer slams Трамп and endorses Biden
• Randy Rainbow: I won’t vote Трамп!

• WaPo: Democrats flipped the House in 2018. Can they keep it in 2020?
• The Daily Show: Трамп Eviscerates Трамп
• Samantha Bee: The importance of down ballot races, Pt. 1
• Samantha Bee: The importance of down ballot races, Pt. 2
• Meidas Touch: Bring back hope
• Stephen: Трамп lied to undecided voters at Philadelphia town hall, then shared a doctored video of Joe Biden
• Foundation Singers: If you love this country:

• Seth Meyers: Stacey Abrams has a plan to make sure every vote counts
• Trevor: Sen. Jon Tester on how to get rural voters to support Biden
• Samantha Bee: Work those poles

Stephen: Journalist Jacob Soboroff on children being tortured inside America’s immigration detention centers.

Now This: Women in ICE custody say they were subjected to unwanted hysterectomies

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

RIP RBG:

• Now This: Legendary Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg dies at 87
• WaPo: Ruth Bader Ginsburg dies at 87—Remembering her life and career
• New York Times: Remembering Ruth Bader Ginsburg
• Meidas Touch: Demand decency.
• Really American: No new justices
• Bill Maher on RGB
• WaPo: What Senate Republicans have said about filling a Supreme Court vacancy
• Now This: Joe Biden on filling RBG’s Supreme Court Seat

WaPo: Understanding WeChat, the essential Chinese social media app.

Vice News: This Texas County is taking the drive-thru model for voting.

Solana Rice and Jeremie Greer: Racism is profitable

The Dotard Трамп and Other Murderous Despot Wannabes:

• The Late Show: Трамп’s many contradictions are revealed on Bob Woodward’s audio tapes
• Trevor: Author Mychal Denzel Smith on how to recover from Трамп
• Stephen: Трамп says “I do” to Joe Rogan’s debate challenge, but will he accept Stephen’s counter offer?
• John Di Domenico: Exploding trees, science doesn’t know and wet, deep water in the Pacific
• act.tv: FAUX News really does run Трамп and his presidency…and then he goes golfing
• Trevor: Трамп disowns blue states & AG Barr says slavery is back
• The Late Show: The Dotard Трамп knows more than science
• The Protest Films: No more Трамп
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard ends the 1619 Project!
• The Late Show: The Dotard Трамп called out by Jack Frost
• Seth Meyers: Late Night White House press briefing
• The Late Show: A concussed panda replaces Steve Doocy on FAUX & Friends
• WaPo: How Bill Barr has misled the public under Трамп
• Daily Show: Don Трамп the science-ish guy: Wildfires
• The Late Show: Secret recipe revealed for Трамп’s dry-aged health care bill
• SongBird: The ten Трамп commandments (A Трамп parody)
• Stephen: Трамп denies climate science in fire-scarred California, echoing his downplaying of COVID-19
• Meidas Touch: Pedo Трамп
• The Late Show: Real Americans challenge The Dotard Трамп with questions we all wish we could ask
• Jimmy Fallon: New episode of “Talk like Трамп”
• The Daily Show: What was The Dotard asked about?
• PrioritiesUSA: “America first”
• Conan: The Трамп “Book of the Day” club.
• Mark Fiore: Denialism—Not just for climate change anymore
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп lets Woodward know he’s a horrible guy:

• Meidas Touch: The Трамп depression—The economy does better under the Democrats
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп wishes a happy Rosh Hashanah
• WaPo: How Трамп repeatedly disparages climate science
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s ABC town hall was filled with lies
• The Late Show: The Dotard Трамп Jr. inspires Middle Ages torture device
• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpIsNotLikeYou

Stephen: Journalist Jacob Soboroff—Americans are not paying attention to atrocities happening in our immigration system.

Courtney Jaye: Ted has no balls

Vox: What long voting lines in the US really mean

ТрампPlague:

• Seth Meyers: Трамп holds indoor Nevada rally as pandemic and wildfires rage
• Now This: The Dotard suggests COVID-19 deaths in blue states shouldn’t count
• Really American: Трамп wants to infect us
• Bill Maher: Herd mentality
• Francesca Fiorentini: American individualism is killing us
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп is enraged over Barack Obama’s new book
• Roll Call: Four takeaways from Redfield’s COVID-19 testimony
• Trevor: Travel in the time of coronavirus
• Meidas Touch: Трамп lied 200K died
• Bruce W. Nelson: Keep calm and covid on! (Трамп’s most profound thoughts to avoid panicking)
• Lewis Black’s survival guide for New Yorkers stuck in suburbia
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп on vaccine, and covid-19 deaths
• Lauren Mayer: Herd mentality:

• Really American: Трамп hid the truth
• Seth Meyers: Трамп blames “blue states” for COVID deaths
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп destroys covid in Nevada speech
• Stephen: Трамп blames blue states for covid death rate while Bill Barr compares lockdowns to slavery
• Jonathan Mann: Anti-mask rally in St. George, Utah (remix)
• Meidas Touch: Experts vs. The Dotard—Трамп is a one trick phony
• Trevor: Трамп’s illegal indoor rally & a COVID-positive college party
• Our Cartoon President: Cartoons Eric & Don Jr. invent a COVID-19 vaccine
• PrioritiesUSA: Responsibility

BuzzFeed: How the stock market works in under 8 minutes

Naomi Ekperigin (Full Frontal): From memes to movement—Is Instagram activism getting us anywhere?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 389 electoral votes	Mean of 149 electoral votes

My previous analysis was before the conventions. Now, roughly a month after the conventions, any movement from the conventions should become apparent.

To assess an election held today, we simulate 100,000 elections using the past month of polls as “current” and only using older polls if there are no current polls. From that exercise, Joe Biden won all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 389 to Donald Trump’s 149 electoral votes, a modest improvement for Biden from the 378 to 160 electoral vote lead he had at the end of July. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 18 Sep 2019 to 18 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Clearly, Biden has the lead and the momentum at this point in the election season, with his expected electoral vote total tending to climb since January. Details for the the most recent simulation is found below the fold.

[Read more…]

Congratulations to the Attorney General’s victory in the Post Office case. Long term, we’ll have to staff the Post Office with people who aren’t dedicated to destroying it.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Are you surviving the smoke? It’s pretty gross. I live in the urban core, and according to Google Maps the farthest building I could see from my window is less than half a mile. And even that is an improvement from earlier in the week.

If you have to work outside, or go outside for any reason, I feel for you. Gross, gross, gross.

And, you still have to wash your hands. So wash your hands right now.

Gaaah, look at how late this post is.

Wash your hands right now.

Bill Maher: Side with teacher.

Roy Zimmerman: : I approve this message.

Biden—Harris 2020:

• Bruce W. Nelson: Anyone But That S.O.B. (sneaky old blob) A song of nonsupport.
• Samantha Bee: Sam’s election day countdown
• The New Yorker: How national crises influenced three American elections
• Meidas Touch: America needs Biden
• Now This: Kamala Harris and Barack Obama talk life on the campaign trail

Samantha Bee: Why police aren’t protecting our kids in school.

Vox: How America can leave fossil fuels behind, in one chart

Seth Meyers: Jane Fonda on Nixon ordering her arrest and civil disobedience

The Dotard Трамп and Other Slackers, Prevaricators and Incompetents:

• Bruce W. Nelson: If DeJoy goes to de jail
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп on his Nobel Peace Prize nomination
• Mark Fiore: The Трамп troops
• Seth Meyers: Трамп lashes out over report that he insulted fallen soldiers
• J-L Cauvin: Mike Pence says Трамп LOVES the troops
• Parody Project: Battle of Lake Travis:

• Trevor: Peter Strzok on is book about Трамп
• John Di Domenico: I like boaters who don’t sink, press briefing
• Lauren Mayer: Rock bottom has a basement
• Vote Vets: Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton (Ret.) responds to Трамп calling general officers & admirals “fucking pussies”
• Robert Reich: The real threat to law and order
• Amber Ruffin: What Трамп has done for the military
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп destroys Bob Woodward
• Bruce W. Nelson: The Ballad of the Lake Travis Regatta
• Trevor: Трамп and FAUX News double down on COVID cover-up defense
• Bill Maher: Peter Strzok on “Compromised”
• The Democrats: Sacrifice
• James Corden: Трамп’s Twitter weirdness
• J-L Cauvin: Devastated Dotard Трамп blames Bob Woodward and MBS!!!
• Meidas Touch: DJT has NPD—Трамп’s malignant narcissism exposed:

• Really American: Трамп hates our troops.
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп practices his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech
• VoteVets: POW
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп insults Barack Obama impersonator!
• Meidas Touch: Трамп’s radical right
• SongBird: Vlad guy—A Трамп parody
• Bruce W. Nelson: Dear Kim Jong-un (A Трамп love song)
• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpIsNotLikeYou

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week

Roy Zimmerman: Defenders of Marriage (performed in 2017).

Jimmy Dore: Mitt Romney really likes eggs!

ТрампPlague:

• Roy Wood, Jr.: How big tobacco turns a pandemic into profit
• Now This: Трамп’s bizarre mask psychopathology
• WaPo: The Dotard downplayed the coronavirus 31 times in the first three months of 2020
• Samantha Bee: Трамп’s politicization of the COVID-19 vaccine
• VoteVets: Maj. Gen. Paul Eaton (Ret.) responds to Трамп failing to lead on COVID 19
• Jimmy Dore: Herman Cain doesn’t think COVID killed him!
• Priorities USA: Cover-up
• Now This: Woodward audio leak—Трамп knowingly downplayed “deadly” coronavirus
• Trevor: How soon is too soon for a coronavirus vaccine?
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп lied to public about coronavirus
• Seth Meyers: Трамп holds unhinged North Carolina rally without coronavirus precautions
• Samantha Bee: Is it vaccine season, yet?
• Our Cartoon President: Leaked cartoon Трамп Woodward tapes:

• Meidas Touch: Pretend President—Трамп downplayed the pandemic
• Minute Physics: Why masks work BETTER than you’d think
• Vox: How the pandemic distorted time
• Broke Boy: Трамп tapes (Analyzing Bob Woodward audio)
• Really American: Трамп doesn’t care
• Seth Meyers: Трамп and the GOP rocked by bombshell Woodward tapes
• WaPo: Republicans dodge Woodward-Трамп revelations
• Now This: Трамп supporters on why they didn’t wear masks to rally
• Priorities USA: Mask
• Bruce W. Nelson: Cabin fever
• Allana Harkin: Quarantine Questions—Back-to-school edition

Trevor: Jane Fonda—Civil disobedience in the name of climate change.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Another day, another threat from Amazon. I don’t know if it’s pandemic, or otherwise business related. Or trying to scare Seattle once again. The article mentions that they are moving some things to Redmond, a city with a head tax.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Are you surviving the fires? Jeez it seemed like it happened all at once. And all of the smoke. Stay safe and follow any evacuation orders.

And wash your hands.

Samantha Bee: How marginalizing women’s health created a market for pseudoscience products.

Biden—Harris 2020:

• Now This: Трамп’s RNC speech had one false statements every 56 seconds
• WaPo: Трамп promises to end the lawlessness that he promised to end in 2016
• The Late Show: Biden impresses Presidential Gnome
• Conan: The Republican party’s rising stars
• br0keb0i: Biden proves he will destroy weak Dotard in the debates
• Full Frontal: Election night simulation—What happens in a contested election?
• Now This: Joe Biden destroys Трамп’s campaign of law and order
• Meidas Touch: I’m voting for Joe
• Courtney Jaye: I will be voting
• Robert Reich reacts to the RNC
• Now This: Biden tells Трамп to get off Twitter and start negotiating.

Jimmy Dore: Putin takes credit for defeating Kennedy dynasty!

The Dotard Трамп and Other Pimps, Grifters, and Corrupt Bastards:

• Jordan Klepper: How holy is The Dotard Трамп?
The Dotard declares war on soup!!!
• Bruce W. Nelson: The Dotard Трамп cannot play the guitar!
• Meidas Touch: Draft dodger Don hates our troops
• br0keb0i: Weak Dotard shows new signs of incompetence
• The Late Show: William Shakespeare describes Tucker Carlson
• Parody Project: Arrest this scary gentleman (A tale of the Postmaster)

• John Di Domenico: Трамп rant—Rioters, looters, agitators, anarchists & thugs on ANTIFA Airlines flight to Portland
• WaPo: How Трамп’s reported military comments mirror his previous remarks
• Really American: Twitter CENSORS Polluter-in-chief
• Now This: AG Barr defends Трамп after suggesting supporters vote twice
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп offered Sarah Huckabee Sanders to Kim Jong Un!
• Bruce W. Nelson: As long as the band plays, I’ve gotta dance
• Trevor: Трамп’s great USPS war
• Meidas Touch: Трамп terrorism
• Don Winslow Films: An open letter to Republicans
• Jimmy Dore: Herman Cain is still tweeting!
• br0keb0i: Трамп strokes getting worse (mental health deteriorating)
• Lauren Mayer: Occam’s razor
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп demands loyalty from Brett Kavanaugh!
• Bruce W. Nelson: What Трамп has taught to me (a patriotic tribute)
• Really American: In Трамп’s America
• BuzzFeed: How K-Pop stans uutsmarted The Dotard
• Now This: Трамп calls fallen U.S. troops “losers” and “suckers”
• VoteVets: Losing!
• Foundation Singers: Dumb American:

• The Late Show: Don Jr. erupts on FAUX News
• Bruce W. Nelson: “What will people say of Dotard Трамп when he is gone?”
• Meidas Touch: Трамп’s mental unhealth with Dr. Bandy Lee
• Now This: Retired Army Major General Paul Eaton slams Трамп
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard attacks and insults the troops
• VoteVets: Gold Stars

Now This: Pastor speaks out on voter suppression in the Hispanic community

Racism in America

• John Oliver: RNC 2020 & Kenosha
• Now This: Who is Laura Loomer? Narrated by PJ Evans.
• Vox: What Black Lives Matter means to an 11-year-old
• Samantha Bee: The police and white militias Pt. 1
• Samantha Bee: The police and white militias Pt. 2
• Really American: Violent Трамп
• Jonathan Mann: Трамп soup remix
• Now This: 2020 DNC v. RNC on racial justice

Robert Reich: How Big Money corrupts our politics (and how to fix it).

ТрампPlague:

• WaPo: What is phase 3, and how close are we to a covid-19 vaccine?
• Now This: Трамп pushes COVID-19 conspiracy theory
• Vice News: Experts tell us what we do and don’t know about COVID-19
• Roll Call: People without insurance could pay for a vaccine more than once
• Mark Fiore: The doctor is so in
• Trevor: Coronavirus updates
• The New York Times: How to stop the next pandemic

The New Yorker: Greenland thrives after Трамп tried to buy the island

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Sorry it’s so late! I had to get up early for work and then I forgot to write this. So I thought that I would write it at lunch, but that slipped my mind when I was making lunch. Then I went for a walk right after work and now it’s past 8:30…

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

The people who make police accountability more difficult make defunding more likely. Now we find out more about the investigation of the King County deputy who shot a man in the back. It’s pretty grim stuff. From an investigation clearly meant to exonerate to lying to the media, this investigation was no good.

As the article mentions, Initiative 940 passed since then provides more accountability. So I hope that will prevent situations like this from happening again. But if it doesn’t, I don’t know what to do other than defunding.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.