HorsesAss.Org

They’re breaching a dam on the Nooksack River. It seems like it will help with salmon and trout recovery. Very exciting, and I hope it leads to more dam removal around the state.

But for now, wash your hands.

Sorry I didn’t post this morning. I had some work stuff early this morning and then I forgot to write it at lunch. So um. Here it is now.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Your primary ballots are dropping this week. So I guess look out for them next week. And then you will have until August 4 to get your ballot postmarked or dropped off.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now.

Now This: Artists protest immigrant detention with skywriting

Robert Reich: Monopoly mayhem—Corporations win, workers lose.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Racist, Sexual Preditors, and Con-men:

• Rachel Maddow: Трамп scandals pass by, lose spotlight to new Трамп scandals
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard’s cognitive test revealed
• The Late Show: Mount Rushmore Presidents leave Трамп’s 4th celebration early
• WaPo: What Mary Трамп’s book tells us about “dysfunctional” Трамп family
• Randy Rainbow: Poor deplorable troll:

• Now This: Clammer says Трамп’s climate agenda is “treason”
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп remixes the Independence Day speech
• Rachel Maddow: Rep. Adam Schiff, Трамп commuting Stone an appalling attack on rule of law
• WaPo: Трамп’s tax returns and other Supreme Court rulings, explained by Ruth Marcus
• John Di Domenico: Трамп RANTS about fake news reaction to MT. Rushmore 4th of July speech!
• J-L Cauvin: The Трамп workout
• Jordan Klepper versus Трамп supporters.
• The Late Show: A mystic caterpillar makes sense of Kayleigh McEnany’s address
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп threatens to take away casinos
• Mother Jones: The Supreme Court just told Трамп, “You’re not above the law.”
• Foundation Singers: Amazing waste:

• Rachel Maddow: William Barr “decapitates” third U.S. Attorney’s office looking at Трамп
• J-L Cauvin: Did The Dotard fake his SAT scores
• Sarah Cooper: How to cognitive
• The Late Show: Трамп ass-kissing garbage makes a horse sing
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп EXPLODES on Brett Kavanaugh after taxes case!!!

Anthony Anderson: Political monologue.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

ТрампPlague:

• Chris Hayes: How Трамп’s hurricane Maria response foreshadowed his coronavirus failure
• Sarah Cooper: How to mask
• Now This: Watching FAUX News coincides with higher COVID-19 death rates
• The New York Times: How ICE helped spread the coronavirus
• WaPo: Трамп vs. the coronavirus:

• Chris Hayes: GOP is becoming a pro-virus party before our eyes
• Matthew Buechele: If people today were on the Titanic….
• Trevor: Growing up in the time of corona
• Rachel Maddow: Coronavirus follows Трамп on tour
• Now This: Bill Nye conducts a mask experiment
• Chris Hayes: The last person we should trust with safety of kids
• Vox: How humans are making pandemics more likely
• The Late Show: Mount Rushmore Presidents leave Трамп’s 4th celebration early

Roy Zimmerman: The Orange County Rolling Acres Senior Center Cannabis Club

Now This: Joe Biden and Ady Barkan on the future of long-term healthcare.

Black Lives Matter:

• Jaboukie Young-White in quarantine
• BuzzFeed: Why police reform doesn’t work in the U.S.
• AJ+: I was nearly lynched on Independence Day
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Police body cam shows George Floyd’s last word was “please”
• Anthony Anderson chats with Bubba Wallace
• Lauren Mayer: Stand Up and Act (Words Are Just the Beginning)
• The New York Times: What it means to be policed in America
• VICE News: Are the Boogaloo Bois a national security threat?

WaPo: Biden’s $700 billion economic plan, in 4 minutes.

The Late Show: Aliens discover racist Tucker Carlson.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

The Seattle City Council has committed to defunding the police department by 50%. Will replacing police duties with people from other city departments work? Will it provide better service? Will it reduce police shootings and other escalation of force? Will it reduce crime? I don’t know. But the status quo is not working.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Tim Eyman is a horse’s ass. But he’s also the only one of the Republicans running for governor who I had any idea about. Who else is running? Wasn’t there some guy who wasn’t going to enforce gun laws? Is he doing anything recentlOHGOD.

In a long-running lawsuit, a woman accuses police and deputies in Ferry County of failing to properly investigate when she reported a pattern of rape and molestation spanning 12 years of her childhood.

Among the defendants is Loren Culp, who is now the police chief in the town of Republic and a Republican candidate for Washington governor. The lawsuit alleges Culp and two other law enforcement officers intimidated the victim, threatened to charge her with making false claims and failed to report her allegations to child welfare authorities as required by law.

Of course a lawsuit filed isn’t the same as all of the accusations proven. But yikes.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 375 electoral votes	Mean of 163 electoral votes

My previous analysis of the Biden-Trump head-to-head polls was way back in early June, in part because the dynamics of the race didn’t seem to be changing much. Trump is slowly slipping in the polls, as the COVID-19 epidemic worsens in the U.S., as Trump resists movements for police reforms, and as we learn bizarre things like Trump not responding to Russian bounties on American soldiers in Afghanistan.

After 100,000 simulated elections, the results are not surprising. Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 375 to Trump’s 163 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Basically, if the election was today, Biden would win in a landslide.

Trump has a serious electoral college problem. Many swing states are now trending strongly for Biden, including Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Other swing states are pretty solidly in Biden’s camp, like Arizona, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Even Ohio trends slightly toward Biden. Iowa and Texas are in toss-up territory, but leaning slightly toward Trump. Remarkable!

The trend over the past couple months are clear from from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from Jul 2019 to the present, and, at each point in time, including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

There is, of course, plenty of time to turn this trend around. Still, Trump’s bizarre and impulsive behavior will make doing that very difficult.

[Read more…]

I saw my parents for the first time since the quarantine started over the weekend. We had a socially distanced, masked walk and a picnick. It was a relatively low risk thing, but it was still nervous making. I was glad to see them, but still I don’t know.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Now This: Sen. Mark Warner on cleaning up national parks.

BuzzFeed: How Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos will make 1 million dollars during this 7 minute video.

The Dotard Трамп and Other Immorals, Incompetents, and Incontenents:

• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп was offered Bounty paper towels from Putin
• Songify The News: Трамп v. Ramp
• Lauren Mayer: Трамп will go down!
• Now This: Senator Tammy Duckworth slams Трамп over Russian bounties
• Now This: The Dotard’s guide to American history:

• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп calls with world leaders leaked!
• Robert Reich: Трамп’s 2020 election strategy in 25 steps
• Samantha Bee: Трамп attacks our nation’s free press, part 1
• Samantha Bee: Трамп’s ongoing attacks on our nation’s free press, part 2
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп denies VERY STRONGLY knowing Ghislaine Maxwell
• Mark Fiore: Make fireworks great again!
• John Di Domenico: Трамп’s last minute, hastily put together, totally unrehearsed “Happy Canada Day” speech.
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard watches Hamilton on Disney+
• Now This: Veterans call out Трамп over paid killings of U.S. troops

Samantha Bee: How to save the Postal Service

Now This: The fight to expand vote-by-mail before election day.

Trevor: The CIA is hiring.

Black Lives Matter:

• Full Frontal: Mike Brown learns how to do the uprising thing.
• WaPo: How to be anti-racist—It’s more than books, quotes and Blackout Tuesday
• Vox: A brief history of police impunity in Black deaths
• The Daily Show: Educate your White friends with Blacklexa
• Jonathan Mann: Karen’s got a gun.
• New York Times: Why some Black Americans need guns to feel safe in their country
• The Daily Show: White people unnecessarily calling the cops on Black people
• WaPo: “Enough is enough”—Seattle police clear protest zone after mayor’s executive order

Hasan Minhaj : Why doing taxes is so hard.

The Foundation Singers: NOVEMBER!

ТрампPlague:

• John Oliver: Coronavirus IX—Evictions
• Sky News: “Heading to pure hell”—Texas counts the cost of lifting coronavirus lockdown early
• Randy Rainbow: COVER YOUR FREAKIN’ FACE!:

• John Di Domenico: Трамп RANTS about all the names for Covid, then announces he is going to sue the Kung flu!
• Roll Call: How to stay safe this July 4th
• Now This: Biden, “Трамп doesn’t understand the basic facts of the COVID-19 crisis”
• Jonathan Mann: Masks, I think they work (Sean Hannity remix)
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп’s Mt Rushmore speech on July 3rd (preview)

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Now This: Who is Ron DeSantis? (Narrated by Yedoye Travis)

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

It’s depressing how the CHOP/CHAZ is ending. There was so much generated there. Art and community. A garden. But when self-declared security forces kill a Black child it’s tough to support the place.

None of this excuses the actions of SPD in the last month or so. None of this means tear gassing protesters is retroactively OK or that we can’t defund the police. Black lives still matter.

(Also wash your hands right now.)

(At some point I will get back on track with these.)

The Supreme Court had another goodish ruling (pdf, I haven’t read it yet since I’m on lunch) in a high profile case. I am still concerned that Roberts is a swing vote in these decisions.

It’s definitely good that we’re winning these (for lack of a better phrase) culture war cases. But the court ruled on an exact same law a few years ago. It stinks that we have to play defense. If Justice Kagan (or Garland) were the swing vote, it would probably be on better cases.

Anyway, go wash your hands right now.

Hasan Minaj and AOC discuss the Green New Deal

Stephen and Jon: Joe Biden, humbled by grief, may be the leader America needs right now

ТрампPlague:

• Stephen: Трамп stoked a culture war over masks that put everyone at risk…even the Secret Service
• Bruce W. Nelson: The woodtick song (inspired by Mike Pence)
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп delivers Arizona church rally
• Trevor: U.S. hits all-time high in coronavirus cases
• Bill Maher: Live free or die hard
• Lauren Mayer: Empty chairs at empty eallies
• Jonathan Mann: Please wear a mask
• The Late Show: Jesus wants nothing to do with Mike Pence’s policies
• John Oliver: Coronavirus VIII—Prisons and jails
• Reflect: Трамп threatens rule of law by firing New York District Attorney Geoffrey Berman
• Stephen: Трамп’s risky rally tour touches down in covid hotspot Arizona as cases spike in 29 states
• Jimmy Fallon: Mike Pence refuses to wear mask at coronavirus briefing
• Seth Meyers: Trump amps up the racism because he’s failed at everything else
• Trevor: Трамп’s Tulsa rally flop
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп DESTROYS Brad Parscale and Ron DeSantis (LEAKED CALL)
• The Late Show: Rep. Louie Gohmert gets douchebusted
• Samantha Bee: Black trans lives matter
• Samantha Bee: Violence against trans women of color
• James Corden: Trump takes Tulsa, dominates drinking water
• Stephen: As Arizona covid cases spike, Трамп delivers speech to packed crowd of maskless student supporters
• Jimmy Dore: Chris Christie has cure for COVID-19!
• The Late Show: Oklahoma! Where the crowd turnout was really lame:

• Stephen: Трамп does an epic walk of shame after TikTok users and K-Pop fans troll his Tulsa rally
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп meets the President of Poland
• Sarah Cooper: How to empty seat
• Courtney Jaye: Boogie on Down to the Rally (Pt. 1)
• Courtney Jaye: Boogie on Down to the Rally (Pt. 2)
• Robert Reich: America is not exceptional
• The Late Show: Michael Bolton sings John Bolton’s book
• Bruce W. Nelson: Empty Seats, empty heart, empty head
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп furious over lack of turnout at Tulsa rally
• The Late Show: Time for “Answer Plinko” with The Dotard
• Stephen and Jon: Let’s Address The President As #SwampyDon
• The Daily Show: The Dotard Трамп—Never not joking
• Courtney Jaye: The Ballad of Billy Barr
• Bruce W. Nelson: Tulsa
• Stephen: Melania Трамп rates The Dotard’s performance at his Tulsa rally debacle
• The Late Show: The Dotard’s post-rally walk of shame
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s Tulsa rally was a flop
• John Di Domenico: Трамп RANTS about his Tulsa Rally in his Father’s Day Message
• Sarah Cooper: How to second term
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard goes after KPOP fans
• Stephen and Jon: Advice from 1918 and thoughts on Трамп’s handling of the coronavirus

Hasan Minhaj: We’re doing elections wrong

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses

Black Lives Matter:

• Trevor: Axed Statues and NASCAR racism
• Mark Fiore: Preserve the racist statues
• AJ+: Can Black voters swing the 2020 election?
• Trevor and Jon talk Confederate Statues, COVID-19 & “Irresistible”
• Vox: Why America’s police look like soldiers
• The Late Show: A message from Mrs. Butterworth
• Roy Zimmerman: DWB (Driving While Black):

• The Chicks: #MARCHMARCH
• Trevor: Noose in Bubba Wallace’s garage was not a hate crime
• The New York Times: Philadelphia police violated their own guidelines, here’s how
• Vox: What “defund the police” really means
• Hasan Minaj and Keith Ellison on justice for George Floyd
• Trevor: Bubba Wallace on the noose incident & bringing BLM into NASCAR

WaPo: House passes bill to make D.C. the 51st state.

Samantha Bee: Tarana Burke on the connection between police brutality and sexual violence

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Forgot about a thread today. Here’s a limerick in honor of mask wearing being mandatory in Washington starting today.

.

You really should wear a mask, it

Is not much of a thing to ask, it

Will be a breeze,

And will slow the disease.

It might even keep you out of a casket.

.

Also, please wash your hands right now.

I am glad that new rules for face masks are going into effect on Friday (pdf). It seems like a good public health measure. As with when it was Yakima County, I would prefer that this be on the government and employers rather than on individuals. I also hope you don’t call the police on some random person not wearing one.

Still, the coronavirus is spreading too much and some of you are not masking up. Come on.

Also, wash your hands right now.

It stinks that Governor Inslee has to issue an order to wear masks for Yakima County. But it is the correct thing to do. I would prefer the state put the mandate on businesses or made sure masks are available, rather than it fall to individuals. Although, I don’t know what the government’s power to force companies to act or local governments to spend money.

In any event, wash your hands right now.