HorsesAss.Org

Looks like turnout is heavy in Clark County. Which was already known because of mail in voting, but it sounds like people are coming out in large numbers to do things like get ballots because they have moved. From The Columbian:

“There were people showing up before 7,” said Elinor Perlich, an election worker manning a drop-box at Image Elementary School in northeast Vancouver.

Many of the 33 drop-box locations reported having to empty ballot boxes into plastic totes, filled with hundreds of ballots coming in on Election Day. Many voters who have moved since the last election headed to the Elections Office at 1408 Franklin St. to pick up fresh ballots.

“Our line’s getting longer and longer here,” county elections Supervisor Tim Likness said shortly before noon.

Not quite the same as standing in line to vote, but clearly the enthusiasm is there. The weather down here has been chilly but while doing errands for part of the day I never got rained on.

An anti-Gregoire email has been making the rounds since the weekend, and has apparently gone viral in the agricultural community.  The email falsely characterizes the governor’s record on water issues, and touts an anti-Gregoire rally that never happened.

Farmers Rally in Yakima Against Governor Christine Gregoire

YAKIMA, WA – Over 100 Farm Bureau members braved strong winds and heavy rains to hold a rally in Yakima on November 1st to protest against Governor Christine Gregoire and her lack of support and action in building water reservoirs in Eastern Washington during her first term in office.

In particular, the Farm Bureau members at the rally expressed strong dissatisfaction at Governor Gregoire for her lack of leadership on several issues…

[…] During the rally, the Farm Bureau members chanted “Jay Manning must go!” in reference to Department of Ecology Director Jay Manning.

Nearly all of the farmers at the rally indicated that they would now be supporting Gubernatorial Candidate Dino Rossi because of the lack of action that Governor Gregoire and Ecology Director Jay Manning have shown in regards to building water reservoirs in Eastern Washington.

The email even includes pictures, presumably taken at the rally:

Only problem is, the rally never happened.  The image on the right is cropped from a farm rally in New Jersey, while the image on the left is cropped from a milk protest in Germany.

Dino Rossi couldn’t actually generate much support from farmers in central Washington, so he had to fabricate it.  Pathetic.

Sandeep Kaushik, Darcy Burner’s communications director, was rushed to the emergency room this morning with what turned out to be a sizeable kidney stone… a non-life threatening, yet extremely painful condition.  His primary responsibility being interacting with our local media, Sandeep has perhaps the most stressful job in the Burner campaign, and I suppose this is what comes from a steady diet of cigarettes and Maker’s Mark.

Of course, as far as the ill health effects of stressful campaign work goes, I suppose it could be worse.

Get well soon, Sandeep, and remember, like the election, this too shall pass.

1. Following his sure-to-be historic Mideast Peace Talks.

and

2. We can finally start to criticize the guy.

I always vote at the polls around 9AM, so I have a sense of relative turnout, and this was the busiest I have ever seen my polling place.

In 1969, when I was in fifth grade, my parents moved from the West Coast to Columbia, South Carolina. In their infinite wisdom, my parents decided that Columbia’s freshly desegregated public schools were no place for a nice white boy. Instead, they put me in one of the new white-only “Christian” private schools that had sprung up to cater to alarmed white parents.

My first week in class, I made an offhand remark to one of my new classmates that I didn’t understand what the difference was supposed to be between white people and black people — they were all just people. He immediately went to the teacher, who promptly had me stand before the entire class and repeat the comment – not to educate them, but to publicly humiliate me for my profound ignorance concerning the inferiority of n****rs.

We’re about to elect an African-American to become President of the United States.

In 1982, my new wife and I moved to Houston, Texas, where she wanted to go to graduate school. I was white, and she was not, a marital arrangement that until fairly recently had not been legal in Texas (or most other Southern states). In Houston, fourth largest city in the country, there were (and probably still are) places that would not serve us.

We’re about to elect an African-American to become President of the United States.

Seattle is different. But not very. In the late ’90s there was a rash of killings of unarmed black men by SPD, and the African-American community was in an uproar. The NAACP, Urban League, and other black moderates joined in the call for meaningful civilian review of police actions. I wrote columns for Seattle Weekly echoing that call. The explicitly racist letters that came in response should not have been surprising.

We’re about to elect an African-American to become President of the United States.

My memories are not remarkable; they’re snapshots of a reality tens of millions of people continue to experience in America each day. A colorblind society would be great. We’re not there yet. Like most of my African-American friends, I have a hard time believing this is happening; but I’m sure glad it is. Whatever one thinks of Obama’s policies — and as I noted yesterday, I’m not thrilled by them — this election will go a long way toward reestablishing America’s moral credibility in the eyes of the world. Race does matter, here and elsewhere. So does class. And Obama is correct to note that his inspiring, improbable story is only possible in America.

Unlike 2000 or 2004, this year I’m proud of the American electorate — and it has nothing to do with ideology.

Tonight, regardless of what’s going on in the other races you care about, take a moment to witness history. This is an election that will be taught in civics textbooks for a long, long time.

Remember early on in the campaign, when white pundits were fretting that Obama might not be “black enough” to attract the black vote? Non-white pundits knew better. Beyond being secure in the knowledge that Obama’s white opponents would make damned sure everyone was aware that Obama was The Other (as John McCain and Sarah Palin have predictably done), they also knew that if he got this far, his African-American support would be near-universal. Not because of his policies or the tactics of the McCains of the world, or even solidarity with Obama’s skin color, so much as the future possibilities for those voters’ children, and their skin color.

In the comment thread of another blog a couple of weeks ago, a commenter offered what I think captures the phenomenon of Obama’s (probable) triumph nicely:

Rosa sat, so Martin could march.
Martin marched, so Barack could run.
Barack ran, so our children could fly.

Vote.  Vote, dammit. Vote.

Election winners like to talk about something called “the will of the people,” but what we’re really talking about here is “the will of the people who actually showed up to vote that day.”  And since there are more of us than there are of them, it should be our will that is expressed today… that is, if we all actually bother to vote.

Let’s be clear: study after study shows that Democrats almost always benefit from high turnout while Republicans benefit from low turnout.  They don’t want you to vote; that has always been their strategy.  Don’t let it be a winning strategy.

If Democrats turn out in equal or greater strength than Republicans today, Gov. Gregoire and Darcy Burner will cruise to victory.  If we stay home, the Republicans will win.  It’s as simple as that.

And at the presidential level, don’t be fooled into complacency by Barack Obama’s imminent victory, for the battle to discredit his administration has already begun.  Obama is going to need a huge electoral mandate if he’s to have a hope of turning our nation around, and so every vote counts… even those here in a West Coast state he will surely win, and hours after the East Coast declares him the presumptive president-elect.

So vote, dammit, vote.  Or shut up and deal with the consequences.

FIND YOUR POLLING PLACE:  KING | PIERCE

WA STATE PROGRESSIVE VOTERS GUIDE

NOTE:
The Pierce County polling place finder has been down intermittently.  You can find a list of polling places here.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 363 electoral votes	Mean of 175 electoral votes

The first analysis of today, based on 34 newly released polls in 15 states showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by a mean of 362 electoral to 176 electoral votes.

An afternoon update, based on 12 new polls in 10 states gave Obama an expected 363 electoral votes to McCain’s 175. Finally, this evening I added six new polls in five states that were released late.

This evening, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100.000 times (including the 0 ties), and McCain wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 363 to McCain’s 175 electoral votes. If the election had been held this evening, Obama would have had a near-100.0% probability of winning.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Graphic says Jimmy Smits wins Hartsfield’s Landing by a 15-6 margin. First Democratic win since the Hump in ’68.

Toby still working hard. Donna and Josh stuck at maple syrup farm.

UPDATE–Apparently Jimmy Smits is an actor and there is no Hartsfield’s Landing. But TPM was watching CNN as well.

Joan is spending the final few days of the campaign with Darcy, and apparently, she has a camera.

Finally, we are getting some clarity in the Washington state gubernatorial race. The last four consecuitve polls have had Gregoire up by +2%—all within the margin of error.

A new SurveyUSA poll shows Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) leading Dino Rossi (“G.O.P. Party”) by a modest +6% (52% to 46%). The poll of 663 likely voters was taken from 30-Oct to 02-Nov and has a margin of error of ±3.9%.

The same poll also found Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain in the state by a +16% margin (56% to 40%).

The race between Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) and Dino Rossi (“G.O.P. Party”) remains only slightly clearer than mud today with the release of a new Strategic Vision poll. The poll shows Gregoire leading Rossi by +2% (50% to 48%).

That makes four +2% leads in a row, as Gregoire’s led by +2% in the three previous polls as well: a Washington Poll poll (50% to 48%), a SurveyUSA poll (50% to 48%), and a Strategic Vision poll (49% to 47%).

Before that, Gregoire held a +6.4% (51.4% to 45.0%) lead in the previous Washington Poll poll taken from 18-Oct to 26-Oct.

The recent polling shows Gregoire with a small, but consistent, lead in the weeks leading up to the election:

In fact, Gregoire has led in all eight polls taken since mid-October. The last time Rossi held the lead was in mid-September.

The new Strategic Vision poll also shows Obama leading by +15% (55% to 40%) in the state. (The poll of 800 likely voters was taken between 31-Oct and 02-Nov, and has a margin of error of ±3%.)

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 362 electoral votes	Mean of 176 electoral votes

There are lots and lots of new polls today, so this analysis is the first of two or three I’ll offer today. There were 34 new polls in 15 states released this morning. The polls show a little more tightening up of the race, but Obama maintains a strong lead.

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 366 to 172 electoral votes (on average). Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000. Obama receives (on average) 362 to McCain’s 176 electoral votes—McCain makes a net gain of four electoral votes. If the election had been held today, instead of tomorrow, Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

In their headlong race to the bottom, which will the Seattle Times shed faster?

It’s a tough competition among Seattle’s daily papers, what with the Times’s Harvard hit piece on Darcy Burner and the P-I’s laughable front-page analysis today of early voting for governor (which is entirely pegged on extrapolating King County’s lower mail voting rate thus far than other counties without accounting for the fact that we’re also one of only two counties with polling place voting on Tuesday).

But the “honor” of worst smear jobs of this dismal campaign season in our local papers has to go to the P-I’s Joel Connelly for his relentless series of factually challenged hit pieces on I-1000, reprised today. (And no, it doesn’t deserve to be linked to. Find it yourself, if you have the stomach.)

Connelly has a right to his faith-based opinion on I-1000, and to express it. I would respect that. (Goodness knows, I’ve had enough public opinions that friends of mine have disagreed with over the years.)

However, he does not have a right to use his public soapbox for a seemingly endless litany of dishonest smear jobs. His jihad on this initiative (religious imagery intentional) has dramatically lowered my opinion of his integrity.

I’ve been terminally ill; I spent two long years sliding toward my death, including three separate comas, over two dozen surgeries, and untold nausea and pain. I was fortunate enough to survive it, but I sure remember the experience. With all the ameliorative care in the world, it was still awful, and now that I’m a couple decades older and more brittle, it will be worse next time. Maybe I’ll endure it again, maybe I won’t. That’s my choice. As someone personally affected by this initiative, I don’t simply disagree with Connelly; I find his work on this, his assumptions about the motivations and decision-making capacity of the terminally ill, his eagerness to impose his own religious and moral code on my body, and his willingness to put me and my family through a living end-of-life hell so that he can feel a little better to be personally offensive – and it takes a lot to offend me.