Good morning, Washingtonians. Have you voted yet? Remember, if you have until November 3 to have your ballot postmarked or dropped off. I have not confirmed it, and I wish I could remember who tweeted it, but hopefully this map is helpful. Otherwise, check your county elections office.
And please wash your hands right now.
My previous analysis of the Senate races was a few weeks ago. If the election had been held in early October, the Senate would have almost certainly gone to the Democrats with, on average, 54 seats.
How have things changed? Not much. After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99,878 times, there were 122 ties, and Republicans never took control of the Senate. Democrats have a 100.0% probability of controlling the Senate if Vice President Joe Biden takes the White House. Republicans have about a 0.1% probability of controlling the Senate if President Donald Trump is reelected.
Some states have shown minor movement as more polling comes in. Going from 2 to 4 polls in Kansas has flipped the state from red to blue. Republican Roger Marshall was ahead with 82% chance of winning three weeks ago. Now, Democrat Barbara Bollier would have a 63% probability of winning that election today.
In the Montana race where Democrat Steve Bullock is challenging Republican Sen. Steve Daines, the race has swung further into Daines favor. He went from a 57% chance of Daines prevailing three weeks ago to an 80% chance now.
The Georgia seat 2 special election now has 5 polls that, in addition to polling the main event on Nov 3, put the top Democrat, Raphael Warnock, head to head against the top Republicans. I am using polls that assume Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler will go up against Warnock in the 2-candidate runoff. But the results don’t change if Republican Doug Collins ends up in the runoff election. In both cases Warnock has a high probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Democrat | 45 | |||
| Strong Democrat | 6 | 51 | ||
| Leans Democrat | 2 | 2 | 53 | |
| Weak Democrat | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 |
| Weak Republican | 3 | 3 | 3 | 47 |
| Leans Republican | 2 | 2 | 44 | |
| Strong Republican | 4 | 42 | ||
| Safe Republican | 38 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| # | Sample | Percent | Percent | Democrat | Republican | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | @ | polls | size | Democrat | Republican | % wins | % wins |
| AL | 1 | 1030 | 43.8 | 56.2 | 0.3 | 99.7 | |
| AK | 4 | 2214 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 47.6 | 52.4 | |
| AZ | 24 | 15073 | 53.6 | 46.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| AR | 2 | 1107 | 38.0 | 62.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| CO | 8 | 5741 | 54.8 | 45.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| DE | 1 | 712 | 67.8 | 32.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| GA | 15 | 11127 | 49.7 | 50.3 | 35.1 | 64.9 | |
| GA | 5 | 3619 | 53.8 | 46.2 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| ID | 1& | 487 | 34.1 | 65.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| IL | 1& | 418 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 97.3 | 2.7 | |
| IA | 12 | 7943 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 75.5 | 24.5 | |
| KS | 4 | 4774 | 50.3 | 49.7 | 62.7 | 37.3 | |
| KY | 2 | 1157 | 44.8 | 55.2 | 0.8 | 99.2 | |
| LA | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| ME | 3 | 1597 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 97.2 | 2.8 | |
| MA | 1&
| 817 |
55.6 |
44.4 |
98.8 |
1.2 |
| |
| MI | 24 | 19375 | 52.7 | 47.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MN | 4 | 3038 | 53.4 | 46.6 | 99.6 | 0.4 | |
| MS | 1& | 486 | 49.4 | 50.6 | 43.7 | 56.3 | |
| MT | 6 | 3893 | 49.1 | 50.9 | 20.1 | 79.9 | |
| NE | 1 | 395 | 27.3 | 72.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| NH | 6 | 4551 | 57.1 | 42.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NJ | 1 | 664 | 61.1 | 38.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NM | 1 | 815 | 55.5 | 44.5 | 98.4 | 1.6 | |
| NC | 23 | 16814 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| OK | 1 | 5102 | 39.6 | 60.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OR | 1 | 849 | 61.1 | 38.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| RI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| SC | 5 | 3960 | 49.8 | 50.2 | 43.2 | 56.8 | |
| SD | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| TN | 1 | 551 | 39.0 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| TX | 9 | 10209 | 47.2 | 52.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| VA | 3 | 2626 | 57.7 | 42.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| WV | 1 | 386 | 38.3 | 61.7 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| WY | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
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I count about 55 new polls since my previous analysis a few days ago. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins all 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 364 to Trump’s 174 electoral votes. That is a small bump for Biden but, essentially, this is more of the same near-landslide lead for Biden. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.
Here is how the race has progressed over time—this is based on a series of elections simulated every seven days over the past year including polls from the preceding month when possible (FAQ).
The distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the 100,000 simulated elections using the last month of polls strongly suggests Biden would have well over 330 electoral votes if the election was held today:
Here are the ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution can be downloaded here):
Bill Maher: American ninja warrior—Democracy edition
True Colors: How Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ended up in politics
Biden—Harris 2020:
Amber Ruffin: The one constant in these “uncertain times”
Robert Reich: What happened to the Voting Rights Act?
Francesca Fiorentini: Socialism—Republicans keep being forced to love it
The Dotard Трамп and Other High Level Grifters and Deplorables:
Mainers for Accountable Leadership: Susan Collins’ final sct
Seth Meyers: Back in my day….
Vox: Why American public transit is so bad
Superspreading ТрампPlague:
Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship
Trevor: Sen. Elizabeth Warren on fighting Republicans’ threats to democracy
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Did you catch the big debate last night? I did. It made me glad that I already voted for Marko Liias. Oh, was there another debate?
Seriously, the Lieutenant Governor debate last night was gloriously dull. It wasn’t too much of a contrast between the bearded monotone Democrats. Heck tried to talk about being an outsider (DC and the private sector) while also touting his time in the legislature and as Booth Gardner’s Chief of Staff. Liias was more focused on his legislative record. Either would be good in the job.
The moderators were less impressive. Maybe there aren’t an hour of questions for the position. Still the first 2 questions were about Republican voters and how will you work with Republicans in the legislature. There was no equivalent question about Democratic voters, despite the fact that we are a lot more of the state.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now.
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With just over two weeks to elect-a-slate-of-electors day, the race between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump is really heating up! If by the phrase “really heating up”, you mean the days are getting shorter, the weather is getting colder, and the polls continue to put Biden ahead of Trump with no signs of wavering.
My previous analysis showed Biden leading with a mean electoral vote count of 363 to Trump’s 175, suggesting that Biden would win an election then with near certainty.
Since that analysis there have been about 135 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on the contest. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 361 to Trump’s 177 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.
There hasn’t been a whole lot of movement from the new polls. Trump has made small gains in a number of states since the previous analysis. In Alaska, the new polling lifts him from a 74% probability of winning an election held then to a 93% probability of winning an election held now. Arkansas moves from a 65% probability to 100% probability. In Louisiana, Trump moves from 87% to 100% probability of winning. Trump gains a bit in Missouri, going from 95% to 99%. In Ohio Trump surges from 56% to 82% probability. Trump has lost ground in Nebraska’s 1st congressional district, where he moves from 63% to 59% probability of winning. Texas has decided to swing back toward Biden a bit as Trump moves from a 95% to an 89% chance of winning the state.
Biden also showed some gains and losses. Biden gains a bit in Georgia, moving from a 68% to an 82% probability of taking the state. And in Virginia, Biden goes from an 85% to a 100% chance of taking the state. Biden slips a bit in Iowa, going from a 67% to a 64% chance of winning the state. Finally Maine’s 2nd congressional district has “flipped”, going from a Biden lead with an 81% probability of him winning to an 58% probability of Trump winning. Maine’s first congressional district and the state itself remain in the Biden column.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 21 Oct 2019 to 21 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
Biden’s lead has held solidly since about July.
Getting back to the current week, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations of elections held today:
I hope that the new approach to homeless outreach in Seattle, if it comes to anything, is an improvement. I wish there was more of a solid direction from the mayor’s office. But maybe the relationship is so toxic that it’s better to have surrogates.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
Great job, King County. We’re smashing all sorts of records for early voting. I don’t know if this presages higher turnout or if it will taper off. Maybe people are worried about the Post Office so they’re dropping their ballots in the boxes rather than the mail?
No matter what, please seal your ballot with a sponge and wash your hands.
Trevor: Militias—If you don’t know, now you know
Mrs. Betty Bowers, America’s best Christian: Nonsense junkies
Vox: How the US poisoned Navajo Nation.
Jimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.
Biden—Harris 2020:
SNL Weekend Update: Pete Davidson on J.K. Rowling’s transphobic comments.
Larry Wilmore with Nikole Hannah-Jones: Reparations are necessary to bridge the racial wealth gap.
Now This: People commemorate George Floyd’s birthday
The Dotard Трамп and Other Drug-addled Imbeciles:
Vox: How the next president could change policing.
The Daily Show: The what/why/how of the Columbus Day debate
Now This: A Veteran discusses the Russian bounty scandal.
TyphoidТрамп and Other Superspreaders:
The Daily Show: Obama’s Unmasking Scandal—2017-2020.
Americans for Decency Medicare for all explained with Kara Eastman
SCOTUS Tragedy:
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.
Robert Reich: How to beat Republicans at their own game
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Tim Eyman’s latest garbage car tabs initiative is unconstitutional. At this point he must know not to do a multiple issues initiative. Like have a lawyer look it over. Or don’t, since Eyman gets to keep fundraising on the same initiative and agencies get to keep their car tab money.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
King County is mailing ballots today. So you should get yours within a few days. Same give or take for the rest of the state. So if you don’t have a ballot by next week, you can bug your country official. In King County, you can drop it at one of these boxes. Or mail them.
Anyway, use a sponge instead of linking your envelope. And wash your hands right now.
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Some 31 new polls have come out since last Thursday’s analysis of the race between Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The new polls don’t really change much of anything. Biden leads. It isn’t even close.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning. Trump would have no chance of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 12 Oct 2019 to 12 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
Since July, Biden’s lead has been solidly above the 270 electoral vote victory threshold, generally bouncing a bit between 350 and 400.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Amber Ruffin explains 2020 to a time traveler from 1793
Trevor: Columbus Day
Really American: Two-faced Lindsey.
Biden—Harris 2020:
Stephen: Mayor Pete Buttigieg has a message for Justices Alito and Thomas as they attack marriage equality.
Bruce W. Nelson: Moscow Mitch revisited
The Dotard Трамп and His Band of Grifters, Scofflaws and Tax Cheats:
Vox: How US schools punish Black kids
Amber Ruffin: The week in review
Trevor: Facebook bans QAnon & Instagram hides negative comments
Typhoid Трамп and Other Super Spreaders like Melanie:
Larry Wilmore with Bomani Jones: Why are police exempt from the consequences of killing people?
Trevor: Alex Wagner on why Americans feel anxiety and heartbreak.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
I listened to the gubernatorial debate while doing dishes. Now, a day late, here’s my impressions.
Jay Inslee was a bit off his game on a few issues. Western State Hospital desertification in particular. But he was pretty good overall.
Culp was something else. From flirting with conspiracy theories about the wildfires to saying he would have sent the National Guard with guns to the East Precinct protest, Culp was scary. Please don’t vote for him.
And please do wash your hands right now.
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For my previous analysis (on Monday) Vice President Joe Biden had a solid lead over President Donald Trump with an average of 363 to 175 electoral votes. Since then, there have been 52 new polls released. Most are state polls, but we do have a new polls for each of Maine’s congressional districts and Nebraska’s second congressional district.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 366 to Trump’s 172 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. Biden’s small bump is pretty meaningless—such shifts are normal variation as old polls “age out” after they are more than a month old and new polls drop into the analyses.
Trump has made gains in three states, including a new poll in Arkansas bumping him from a 57% probability of taking the state to a 75% probability of taking the state. Trump cuts into Biden’s lead in Maine’s 2nd congressional district, where Biden drops from 90% to a 82% probability of taking the state. Finally two new polls in Montana, including a remarkable Trump+13.4 Emerson poll, brings Trump up to a 98% probability of taking that state.
Biden made gains in five states. Two new polls gives us a total of eight current polls for Iowa, and Trump’s 63% chance has flipped into a 65% chance Biden would take the state today.
Biden also gains ground in Nebraska’s second congressional district with a new Biden+11 poll joining two other recent polls with Biden leading to boost his chances from 87% to 98%. This district went Republican in 2016 and 2012, but narrowly went for Obama in 2008. Two new Nevada polls give us a total of six in the Silver state, and Biden leads in every one of them. His chances have increased from 98% to 100% probability of winning an election held today.
North Carolina is close, but most of the polls are in Biden’s favor. There are twenty current polls and Biden leads in 16, Trump in 2, with two ties. Here is what the last month of polling looks like in North Carolina:
Ohio is even closer than North Carolina. A new Biden+1 poll gives us eight in all, with Trump leading in three, Biden leading in four, and one tie. The margins are small, and each candidate has a 50% chance of winning an election there today:
Here is the long term picture made from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 08-Oct-2019 to 08-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
For an election held today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] generated by the simulated elections:
[Read more…]
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