HorsesAss.Org

There is another statewide poll result released by King 5 today. This one is for the 2012 Attorney General race between King Council members Bob Ferguson (D) and Reagan Dunn (R). Like the gubernatorial poll I wrote about earlier, 523 registered voters expressed a preference.

A total of 388 had a preference, of which 207 (39%) went for Ferguson and 181 (34%) went for Dunn. Some 27% had no preference—hardly surprising since both politicians are mostly known in King County. The normalized percentages are 53.4% for Ferguson and 46.6% for Dunn. But the poll has a very small effective sample size.

The Monte Carlo analysis of a million simulated elections finds Ferguson winning 825,042 times to Dunn’s 165,625 victories.

If an election was to be held today, we would expect Ferguson to win with an 83.3% probability. Of course, the polling results are not “significant” by traditional criteria.

I suspect that this poll is biased in favor of Ferguson. My reason is that the largest share of undecideds probably come from outside of King County, where there is low name recognition for both candidates. Therefore, what we see is likely dominated by Democratic-leaning preferences within King County. A small countervailing bias might arise from the better name recognition outside of King County for Reagan Dunn, on account of his late Mother, Rep. Jennifer Dunn (R). Still, Ferguson gets a few points advantage out of the poll at this stage of the election season.

The contrast between this race and the gubernatorial race is interesting. At first glance, it might seem concerning that Ferguson (D) leads Dunn (R) for Attorney General in the same poll that finds current Attorney General Rob McKenna (R) leading Rep. Jay Inslee (D) for the Governor’s race. Rather than spelling doom for Inslee, I think this just shows that McKenna has much better name recognition statewide, and even within King County. The position of Attorney General can be high-profile, and McKenna has certainly not been bashful about taking advantage of it to raise his profile. And while Inslee has been very popular in the 1st CD (winning by double digits in every one of his last six reelection bids), he hasn’t nearly the name recognition outside of his district.

In sum, Inslee is a little better off than today’s poll suggests, and Ferguson is a little worse off than today’s poll suggests. Both races are probably closer to 50%-50%.

Update: As Richard Pope points out in the comment thread, the numbers in the post didn’t match the headline. The headline is correct. I screwed up typing Inslee’s number into a database, and the error spread from there. All fixed now.

A new poll is about to be released in the Washington gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) and state Attorney General Rob McKenna. The poll surveyed 532 registered voters and was conducted on behalf of KING 5 by Survey USA. KING 5‘s Robert Mak gives a brief overview of the results.

0f the 532 surveyed, 404 436 had an opinion: 170 202 (32 38%) supported Inslee and 234 (44%) supported McKenna. The undecided group made up 24.1 18%. I did my typical Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections at the observed percentages. Inslee “won” 11,474 136,028 times and McKenna “won” 987,293 856,218 times.

The results suggest that, if the election was held today, McKenna would win with a 98.9 86.3% probability. Note that since McKenna’s probability of winning is less than 95%, the lead is not considered “significant” by traditional statistical reasoning.

It is, of course, too early to panic over this poll, particularly with 24 18% undecided. Nevertheless, this poll puts McKenna in the lead. Last week a poll from Strategies 360, a Democratic consulting firm, showed a similar lead for McKenna, 46% to 39%. I generally ignore polls from partisan consultants or polls commissioned by campaigns, but the similarity in results is noteworthy. The previous “real” poll for this race was from Survey USA in late June and showed Inslee with a small, non-significant lead over McKenna, 47% to 44% (my analysis is here).

Mac points out for today’s poll:

McKenna’s early lead can be attributed in part to his strength in the Puget Sound area. In King, Pierce and Snohomish counties, he’s even with Inslee at 41% each, which is significant for a Republican candidate. As expected, McKenna picks up votes in more conservative eastern Washington with a 59%-25% advantage.

Inslee has, apparently, lost ground to McKenna on both fronts: in June he was up 49% to 42% in Seattle and McKenna was up 51% to 41% in eastern Washington.

This race is being touted as the hottest Governor’s race in the country, and the best G.O.P. gubernatorial pick-up opportunity in the nation. It’s certainly living up to the hype!

– Not this one either.

– The Tea Party are the people to clean up government.

– Its a short-sighted point of view to say that none of us alive today were responsible for expelling the Chinese, stealing a canoe or killing Leschi, so why should we go through the process of honoring the better choices our ancestors could have made?

– GOP: We support the troops. No, not the gay ones.

– The movement…the struggle will be there when you come back…and it needs you strong, solid, and ready to get set and go.

– This police officer pepper spraying an Occupy Wall Street protester is a disgrace.

– At week 3, we can all sigh a bit of relief that the Seahawks have at least won a game.

Last week’s contest was won by Siberian Dog. It was Kent, WA.

Here’s this week’s contest, related to a news event from September. Good luck!

Genesis 6:1-4
And it came to pass, when men began to multiply on the face of the earth, and daughters were born unto them, that the sons of God saw the daughters of men that they were fair; and they took them wives of all which they chose.

And the LORD said, My spirit shall not always strive with man, for that he also is flesh: yet his days shall be an hundred and twenty years.

There were giants in the earth in those days; and also after that, when the sons of God came in unto the daughters of men, and they bare children to them, the same became mighty men which were of old, men of renown.

Discuss.

– The group Patients Against New Approach Washington sent the New Approach Washington campaign a letter outlining their concerns over the DUI provisions in Initiative 502. Earlier this week, I discussed why these limits aren’t just unscientific, but could lead to unnecessarily overburdening a system that’s already not very good at keeping dangerous drivers off the roads.

– The RAND Corporation released a study from Los Angeles that showed that when medical marijuana dispensaries are closed, the amount of crime in the immediate area increases. The study looked at the 10 day windows before and after Los Angeles shut down over 70% of its dispensaries. They found that crime around the closed dispensaries was 60% greater than around the dispensaries that continued to operate. This is just another reminder that anyone who calls medical marijuana dispensaries “magnets for crime” is either unaware of how magnets work, or is completely full of shit.

– The White House is once again using the internet to find out what issues “We the People” want the government to deal with. And once again, a petition to end marijuana prohibition is winning by a lot. Even Mexican President Felipe Calderon is starting to come around on this, but it’s still pretty clear no one in the White House is willing to listen. Same for Canada.

– This past Wednesday, I went to an event sponsored by MAPS. They continue to do a lot of great work on finding PTSD treatments, but continue to run into roadblocks from the drug war. Despite that, the evidence continues to pile up that they’re on to something.

– New York is finally cracking down on the very cynical way that they trick people (read: minorities) into more serious drug offenses by having them show their drugs to them.

– It’s good to be reminded that police officers don’t always tell the truth.

– Some Texas cops had a fun night.

Obama: Address to the U.N.:

Ann Telnaes: The dangers of privatizing Social Security.

Pap: Trade deals are killing American jobs.

Thom: How Republicans are trying to steal elections.

Capital Punishment:

• Ann Telnaes: The problem with capital punishment….
• Thom: Have the psychopaths taken over America?

Mark Fiore: SolyndraGatePocalypse.

Young Turks are going to Current TV.

Something to make Puddybud’s head implode: Al Gore welcomes Cenk and the Young Turks to Current TV:

New co-chair of “Rick Perry’s Florida Presidency 5 campaign leadership team” is Worst Person in the World.

Ed with some psychotalk from a poor impoverished Republican.

Sam Seder: First hand account of “Occupy Wall Street”.

Repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell

• Thom and Lt. Dan Choi on repeal of DADT.
• Jay Inslee on repeal of DADT.
• Lawrence O’Donnell and Dan Savage on DADT
• Maddow: The end of DADT (Part I).
• Maddow: The end of DADT (Part II).
• Young Turks: No sex in military says Rick Santorum.

Obama: The American Inventions act.

Actual Audio: James Carville wants Obama to fire somebody.

Pap and Ed: The truly evil nature of FAUX News.

Jon interviewed by Rolling Stone.

The G.O.P. Primary Asylum:

• Liberal Viewer: Are Republicans pro-Life or pro-death
• David Lettermann mocks the GOP debate.
• GOP 2012: A lot of reasons not to elect ’em
• Sam Seder: Candidates silent as debate audience boos gay soldier.
• David Schuster on anti-intellectualism in the G.O.P. primary.
• Newsy: Covering the crowd’s booing a gay soldier.
• Michele Bachmann chooses HPV:
• Young Turks: Michele Bachmann & dangerous food
• Alyona’s Tool Time: Michele Bachmann, “The banks are getting killed.”
• David Shuster and comedian Andy Borowitz on Bachmann’s Tonight Show appearance.
• Pap: Michele Bachmann’s warped world view.
• Young Turks: underinformed voters love Perry.
• Aloyna: Perry Chokes.
• Sam: God tells Rick Perry to kiss AIG ass.
• Young Turks: Rick Perry’s Armageddon.
• Rick Perry’s Texas Miracle:
• Tweety: What Texas miracle?
• Young Turks: Perry’s secession lie.
• Newsy: Romney and Perry trade blows
• Mitt-pocrisy on the American Jobs Act.
• Alyona’s Tool Time: Middle-Class Mitt.
• Sharpton: Mitt’s personal investments…
• Young Turks: No sex in military says Rick Santorum.
• Sam Seder: Rick Santorums all over Google.
• Alyona’s Tool Time: Santorum’s Google problem.
• Comedy Central talks to Gary Johnson (he’s running for President).

White House: West Wing Week.

David Schuster with Comedian Jamie Kilstein on Tea Party untruths.

American Family Association breaks into Worst Person in the World.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Newsy: Political ads on Twitter.

Oh Nos! Class Warfare!

• Ed and Pap: It’s not class warfare…it’s class genocide!
• Olbermann and former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm on class warfare.
• Stephen: The Buffet rule and Obama’s class warfare.
• Ann Telnaes: Class warfare, GOP style.
• Pap: The class warfare that needs to happen.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Stephen: Obama wasted no time emarassing US at the UN.

Pap: The hatred coming from the Teabaggers.

Thom: Republicans are taking more hostages, are you next?

Alyona’s Happy Hour: Bristol Palin bar fight.

Obama on No Child Left Behind.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I agree with O-Dub in general that when protesting you’ll be more effective if you, “Get a haircut. Wear a nice shirt. Carry a sign with a message that makes some kind of sense to an average American.” I’m sort of proud of the fact that every piece of B-roll I’ve ever seen myself in at a protest, it’s been in a coat and tie. Sometimes, especially if you’re marching, it gets hot.

Still, I don’t think that if the occupy Wall Street people were dressed to the nines, that they’d be taken particularly seriously. I mean, the Tea Party dress pretty silly, and still manage to mostly get glowing coverage since they’re protesting for the pro-wealthy, pro-corporate position. No, I’m afraid that as long as you’re pointing out that power maybe shouldn’t be concentrated in a few hands, the rest of your message is going to mostly be ignored, obscured, and fought.

So while I say, dress with a seriousness equal to your cause, also, try not to blame people for protesting differently. Especially when they’re generally right.

– Can we finally admit that the war on cars is a war by cars?(h/t)

– What would you like to see in the next Seattle budget?

– What should happen in the upcoming special session?

– Will Rick Santorum ever get rid of his Google problem?

– Is there anything sadder than Jonah Goldberg trying to think?

– Does Amazon want its employees to suffer from heat stroke, or is it just indifferent?

– Anybody going to the Safe Streets Social?

– How many muffins for that surgery?

It’s time for more Republican kkkraaaaazzzzy! Tonight’s debate is brought to you by the odd team of Google and FAUX News.

The livestream can be found here.

I’ll liveblog as I have the chance and inclination…provided the dry heaving doesn’t turn into actual vomiting.

5:58: Okay…I’m getting a little more psyched. I’m curious to learn whose death will bring on raucous cheers from the audience, this time.

6:00: Gary Johnson is allowed to participate!?!

6:07: Bachmann wants everyone to keep every single dollar that they earn. Does she even know where her salary comes from?

6:08: Santorum said something, but I was writing the above comment. It sounded really icky anyway.

6:15: “And that dog don’t hunt”, Herman Cain channels Bill Clinton.

6:24: Nice…America’s least popular Governor (Scott) wishes the candidates good luck.

6:25: Rick Perry on Social Security: I didn’t really mean to eliminate Social Security…its just that we should allow people to be in other programs just like they are already doing in almost every state!

6:32: Why does Herman Cain hate Richard Nixon?!?

6:34: Newt brings back the Contract on America™!

6:41: Huh…did you know that Michele Bachmann is the mother of 5 biological children and foster mother of 23 children?

6:42: Huntsman one-ups two-ups Bachmann. He has 7 biological children.

6:44: The Great Wall of Bachmann

6:46: And…The Great Wall of Newt

6:48: And The Great Wall of Mitt

6:51: Chris Wallace just said, “Senator Santorum…no need to butt in!”

6:52: The Great Wall of Santorum. Eeeeeeewwwwwwwwwww!

6:54: Someone should tell Ron Paul that the term “data bank” hasn’t been used since 1979.

Tacoma teachers ratify the new contract.

The final vote was 1,683 YES, 15 NO and three invalid ballots. Classes will resume Friday throughout the Tacoma School District.

Tacoma teachers said the contract is a huge victory for them and their students. School district administrators and the Tacoma School Board proposed increasing class sizes, cutting teacher pay and imposing subjective and potentially discriminatory policies regarding teacher staffing decisions. Unwilling to continue working under an expired contract, and refusing to concede on those issues, 87 percent of Tacoma teachers voted to strike Sept. 12.

…

Here are the highlights of the new contract:

• Protects existing class-size/caseload limits for all TEA certificated members
• Protects existing salary scheduling; one less building optional day
• Protects current displacement language for this year; committee with equal representation from TEA and administration will study and implement new policy using objective and appropriate criteria in the 2012-13 school year. Any new policy must be approved by two-thirds of the committee members.

Kudos to governor Gregoire for bringing both sides to Olympia to hammer something out. Still, I imagine that the special session if it happens and the next regular session of the legislature are going to have a lot to do with if there are future strikes. If we get even more cuts, there will probably be more strikes as the issues will be tougher to negotiate.

1) Crime is down in the city, but we’ve seen some horrible incidents with the police in recent years. How do we ensure public safety and not have those sorts of things happen in the future?

I believe that if the Seattle Police Department follows the recommendations of the City Council Public Safety Committee, real progress can be made to ensure public safety and public trust. Here are some of the key recommendations:

a. Establish a county-wide consistent approach to officer-involved deaths to avoid conflicts of interest;
b. Strengthen civilian oversight and increase public understanding and trust by implementing the recommendations of the civilian observer to the Firearms Review Board;
c. Review and enhance hiring standards and training as recommended by the Office of Professional Accountability Civilian Auditor including de-escalation training for all patrol officers with special emphasis on misdemeanor and other low-level encounters;
d. Monthly Office of Professional Accountability reports should summarize findings of misconduct; the nature of the discipline and changes to policy or procedure that have resulted from a complaint so that the public can see the actions taken by the department;
e. Expedite resolution of cases where there is a referral for possible criminal filing by referring the case file to both the King County Prosecutor and the City Attorney for review and recommendations;
f. Allow supervisors to use In-Car Video for instructional purposes;
g. Require mandatory and timely drug and alcohol testing of all officers involved in the use of deadly force regardless of whether a death has occurred and in all use of force incidents that result in the hospitalization or hospital treatment of a person;

2) Now that the Viaduct is coming down, what should the waterfront look like?

I would like the public places to be as beautiful and open and accessible and free from commercialization as possible. The waterfront should include great landscaping with many opportunities to gain access to the water and to view Elliot Bay and the Olympic Mountains. I would like the newly developed portions of the waterfront to be connected with and to extended to the walking and biking trails of Myrtle Edwards Park to the north and similar trails to the south.

3) As the great recession drags on, the city budget is still hurt. What do we need to cut, what do we need to keep, and do we need to raise more money via taxation?

We “need to cut” funding in areas where the City will not experience harm to public safety or deterioration to our infrastructure. I believe that all City Departments should be directed to find cuts and savings through efficiencies in operations and by reducing administrative and overhead costs. I would request department directors to engage their City employees and the public to identify where savings can occur and where budget reductions are possible with the least reduction in public services and with the least harm to our public facilities.

What we must ensure that we support is public safety: police and fire services; infrastructure maintenance and repair of our transportation system; our parks and other public facilities to avoid costly deterioration; public health and human service programs that are essential to the lives of the most vulnerable including the poor, children, seniors and people with disabilities.

I have proposed an increase in the vehicle license fee in order to help meet the maintenance and repair needs of our transportation system as well as to help improve its operations. This measure if approved by the voters would improve transit service; and would increase funding for repair of our roads and would fund bike and pedestrian safety improvements.

4) With its budget shrunk at least until the end of the recession what should Seattle parks look like?

Given the reduction in revenue the City will be cutting services. Of course I would like our parks to look beautiful and to be well maintained. But with reduction in staff that will be challenging. My preference and priorities are to minimize reductions to maintenance and repair staff and seek cuts in other areas of the Parks Department budget.

5) What is the Seattle’s role in education and public transportation given how important they are to the city, but that other agencies are tasked with them?

A strong and successful public school system and a good public transportation system both are fundamentally important to a thriving, healthy and successful City.

The role of the City in education is to support education both indirectly and directly. The indirect support can range from safe sidewalks and routes to schools to sharing of athletic fields and community centers. Direct support can and is provided through the City sponsored Family and Education Levy, which is up for renewal. The programs and services funded by the levy are designed to support, strengthen and ensure the success of students in the Seattle Public Schools. Other direct support should include support for arts and cultural programs that are affordable
and accessible to students.

Public transportation is funded, planned and provided for at the regional level with significant authority for planning and funding authorized by the state of Washington. The City’s role is to be an active and effective participant at all levels in public transportation advocacy and organizations.

Seattle City officials should be leading strong advocates for public transportation and for public transportation funding and expansion. Seattle officials must build strong relations throughout the region and the state to be able to be successful in creating and receiving support for public transportation.

There’s talk once again about having a primary election for the presidency. While I’m less anti-primary than Russ Feingold or Dennis G, I’ll stick with Obama.

Many of the complaints about the possibility of primarying Obama are the same complaints we heard about Hillary Clinton staying in the race in the last primary. That it’ll somehow damage Obama, and he won’t be able to win. That didn’t happen last time, and I trust Obama on the campaign trail enough that I don’t think it’ll happen if he faces a challenger this time.

While Kennedy challenging Carter is a counterexample, generally speaking primary elections are good for whoever emerges from them. Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and a bad economy were more responsible for the result of that election than Ted Kennedy. Primary elections serve the party that undertakes them in a few ways. They clarify where we are as a party and they draw some attention to the positions of the incumbent.

If Cornel West, Ralph Nader, or whoever wants to try to convince Democrats that they have a better way forward for the next election, that’s fine. We’re a big party that can accommodate its own liberal wing. I’d certainly rather they do it in a primary than in November when they might cost Obama votes.

As for the news cycle, I don’t know about you, but I’d rather see coverage of someone going after Obama for being too centrist than hear Rick Perry and Mitt Romney discuss how much of a socialist he supposedly is. Of course with the 24 hour news there can be plenty of both. But a primary against Obama might crowd out some of the silly stuff from the Republicans, especially in print and network/local news where there’s more limited space.

Still, if there’s a primary challenge and it’s still going on, somehow, when Washington caucuses, I’ll proudly go for Obama. He’s brought us the most comprehensive health care reform of my lifetime, moving us a lot closer to universal coverage. He’s winding down Iraq. He’s passed meaningful consumer protection laws. Oh yeah, and he got Bin Laden. None of those is perfect, and there have been baffling strategic decisions along the way, as well as policies I’ve opposed. Still, he’s earned a second term.

And besides, if you’re looking for Democrats to primary, I’d like to suggest that there’s much more bang for your buck at the local level or at Congress.

The Supreme Court has denied a stay for Troy Davis, so he will probably be executed shortly. America is less of a country whenever the state puts a needle in someone’s arm and methodically ends their life. If they’re certainly guilty, and more so if there is a chance the person is innocent. There’s no need for any state to keep killing people, and I hope here in Washington we can be the next to end it.

My heart goes out to his family, as well as the family of Mark MacPhail.

– Hey, people who make fun of Seattle for being somehow uniquely dysfunctional, here’s Bellevue.

– Taxing the rich is popular.

– Tacoma School District negotiators should go back to the bargaining table.

– Don’t Republicans like multimillion dollar industries?

– Some scientists have nicknamed the planet “Tatooine” after the name of the home planet of Luke Skywalker, the hero in the 1970s science fiction movie Star Wars. In the story — in a hypothetical galaxy far, far away, — a circumbinary planet’s double sunset was first brought to the screen. The public’s vision of circumbinary planets thus goes back decades. But today science fiction has become science fact, and that galaxy far, far away has become our own galaxy.