HorsesAss.Org

I am on a bus at the moment, so I may not get a good feed for the debate. If you can, write about what you hear in the thread.

Or if you have poignant comments about Republicans, the Republican field, or the G.O.P. primary…feel free to spew ’em here.

4:53: Something to watch for: Will Herman Cain be positioned away from Michelle Bachmann?

5:37: I just got home, but with no functional television around, I am left looking for live streaming of the debate. No luck so far. Anyone else find a video or audio live stream?

5:45: Found a live stream here.

5:53: CNBC put Newt next to Michele? How long until we start calling her Mrs. Michele Gingrich?

5:55: Ron Paul, “We need to be able to opt out of EVERYTHING!”

6:12: New campaign slogan: “Santorum will bring people together!” Ewwwwwww!

6:17: Tomorrows headline: “Does Rick Perry suffer from early onset Alzheimer’s?”

6:21: Another possible headline for tomorrow: Rick Perry announces he is “withdrawing from the Republican…um…ahhh…ohhh…thing”

6:31: Just thinking about cutting the Department of Energy caused a blackout for Perry. No doubt he’s been thinking about cutting the Department of Education his whole life!

6:50: It’s over! What a snoozer…except for that DELICIOUS part with Rick Perry, seeding comedy shows and comedians for years!

Here it is…in all its deliciousness:

“Mitch McConnell is the one who has had his foot on the neck of this country’s economy….And the polls are now showing that Americans understand that Republicans are willing to sacrifice the health of our economy to have political advantage.”

Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA-07) to MSNBC’s Chris Jansing.

– Battles Won

– I don’t know why Darryl didn’t include the links to King County or Washington State results last night, but here they are. Most counties report this afternoon.

– Yikes.

– Call for artists for mile markers in the Interurban Trail in Shoreline.

– The Hidden World of Girls

– #OccupyDance

I just got to the Ale House, and will provide commentary and results as I find ’em. Feel free to scream, shout, celebrate, and weep in the thread.

7:02: Okay…according to Lee’s twitterfeed here is the good, the bad, and the ugly from all around:

47% voter turnout predicted by Sam Reed.

KY Governors race is a 21% spread for Democrat Steve Bashear.

With 1/3 of precincts reports in Mississippi, Initiative 26 (fetal personhood) is going down 60% to 40%.

In AZ, it looks like Russell Pearce (author of the anti-immigration law, SB 1070) is on his way out…53% to 45% with an unknown percent reporting.

7:12: Pro-union is voting to reject Ohio’s “Issue 2” that would repeal limits on collective bargaining. I mean…if The Twitter can be believed.

7:15: Virginia Senate is currently 22 D to 18 R. It is starting to look like Dems will retain their Senate majority.

7:17: It looks like Republican Phil Bryant wins for Mississippi Gov. Too bad…I heard an NPR piece about Democrat Johnny DuPree last night, and he was very intriguing. Sadly, Mississippi will have to wait to have its first black Governor.

7:24: As an aside…It seems to me that there is some type of metaphor here: Herman Cain reaching up the skirt for America’s genitals. On the other hand, Herman Cain pulling America’s head toward his crotch seems like an even better metaphor….

7:56: Just before WA results start coming in, I’ll shamelessly steal a summary from DailyKos on called races:

• All KY statewide races (D), except Ag Commish (James Comer, R)
• All MS statewide races (R), except AG (Jim Hood, D) & Treasurer (uncalled)
• OH Issue 2 (good guys)
• ME Question 1 (good guys)
• MS Initiative 26 (good guys)

8:15: Very early results from a couple of counties (Franklin, Lewis, Kitsap, some of Pierce):

I-1125 (Kill transportation infrastructure): 52% yes to 48% no
I-1163 (Health care workers): 66% yes to 33% no
I-1183 (Costco’s Law): 62% yes to 38% no

8:26: I-1125 is now down by 1.5% with just under a million votes counted. Tim “Biggest Lie of My Life” Eyman is reportedly already trying to spin this as a “moral victory”. And by that, we mean, he got rich hawking the initiative.

8:30: AP calls I-1183. Get ready to cancel your Costco membership!

8:34: Jane Hague is up over Richard Mitchell 54% to 46% with 28% reporting. Booooooooooo!

8:41: In King County, with 25% reporting, I-1125 is losing 60% 40%.

8:42: For Seattle City council I hear incumbents all the way. Being a Redmond resident, I don’t really care.

8:44: I’m sitting next to Lee, and he is FORCING me to let you know that Initiative 1 in Tacoma (Makes pot possession lowest priority for law enforcement, like a similar thing in Seattle some years ago) is winning big time! [Update: 65% to 35%]

8:49: The other statewide recall this election is in Michigan HD-15, where Republican Rep. Paul Scott is being recalled. I’m seeing tweets that it is very close, but it looks like he has been recalled.

8:52: Dem. Reardon is winning in Snohomish. I’m not really a fan of Reardon, but Hope (R) is one scary motherfucker!

8:54: The most important statewide issue on the ballot this election is I-1125, that would restrict tolling, shut down light rail, and cripple Washington’s transportation infrastructure for years. As the vote trickles in, it becomes clear that the initiative is going down.

8:58: Old news now, but in Arizona, Wingnut author of anti-immigration law, Russell Pearce (R) is outta dare! This election has a certain amount of “extremism will not go unpunished” to it

9:17: In case you were wondering, Sherril Huff will continue to be KC elections director.

9:25: I-1125 is still down, but the margin has narrowed to 51% NO to 49% YES.

9:33: Surprise of the night: I-1125 is losing in Garfield County. Really? Garfield joins King, Snohomish, San Juan, and Jefferson counties? Well, it is only losing by 2 votes out of 864 (so far). But still….

It’s election day! If you haven’t done so yet, drop off your ballot. Then join us for an evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but a few folks show up earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle? Tonight there are also meetings of the Tri-Cities chapter, the Vancouver, WA chapter and Drinking Liberally Bellingham. Tomorrow night, Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.

With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

Okay…maybe they didn’t strike a blow directly to Rob Mckenna, but by upholding the “individual mandate” in last year’s health care reform bill today, the Appeals Court for the District of Columbia Circuit has struck another serious blow against the multi-state lawsuit.

Today’s ruling makes the third Appeals Court to uphold the law and the controversial individual insurance mandate. (I reviewed the pending lawsuits and decisions through July here.) One court has ruled against the law: the 11th Circuit Court in Atlanta ruled 2-1 on August 11th against the insurance mandate provision in the law. This is the Teabagger-inspired lawsuit that Washington state AG Rob McKenna unilaterally joined against the will of the Governor, the Legislature, and the people. Mckenna takes credit for the instigating the lawsuit.

In today’s ruling the majority rejects the the Appellants’ central objection that, “Congress, for the first time, has actually commanded that all Americans purchase a product, health insurance”

We look first to the text of the Constitution. Article I, § 8,cl. 3, states: “The Congress shall have Power . . . To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes.” (emphasis added). At the time the Constitution was fashioned, to “regulate” meant, as it does now, “[t]o adjust by rule or method,” as well as “[t]o direct.”

To“direct,” in turn, included “[t]o prescribe certain measure[s]; to mark out a certain course,” and “[t]o order; to command.”28 In other words, to “regulate” can mean to require action, and nothing in the definition appears to limit that power only to those already active in relation to an interstate market. Nor was the term “commerce” limited to only existing commerce. There is therefore no textual support for appellants’ argument.

Of course, they then look to previous Supreme Court decisions. The bottom line: the Court rejects McKenna’s bullshit.

And my lunch break is over, so enjoy the rest of the opinion.

I assume you’re all aware that today is election day. But if for some reason you’re reading a Washington State political blog on election day and didn’t realize that, here’s your helpful reminder. Get your ballot postmarked by today. If you’re dropping it off in a mailbox, check to see what the pickup times are.

Not sure if I’m going to DL or to some candidate/initiative party, but presumably there will be some results here as well.

I don’t disagree with this piece in the Yakima Herald that combating crime is important.

Have you ever been a crime victim? Have you ever felt the violation of having your home broken into? Do you know someone who’s been mugged or murdered? If you have been lucky enough to have escaped victimization, then look around you; look to your immediate family and neighbors and ask yourself if any of them have been victims of crime. At this point, the numbers shrink pretty close to zero. Yakima is one of many cities in America where crime is a sad fact of life.

I don’t dig this second person construct. But yes, crime is bad, and we should do what we can to stop it. OK, so what should we cut? Or will this argue for tax increases? OK, what taxes? Oh it doesn’t? It just says public safety is good. So is education.

Public safety, along with education, must be the foundation of any civil society. Don’t take my word for any of what I have written. Do the homework, then ask yourself what the possible consequences of such draconian budget cuts will be. Too many of us have already been victims of crime. Are we safe enough to allow the bar to be lowered even more? I think the answer must be a resounding no.

Right. And a social safety net is also important. We’re long past the relatively easy things to cut. We need to raise taxes, and to do so in as progressive a way as we can. But even when an article begging no to cut corrections and education can’t mention raising taxes, we’re not going to have that discussion.

– Early last year, 75 percent were receiving checks. The figure is now 48 percent — a shift that points to a growing crisis of long-term unemployment. Nearly one-third of America’s 14 million unemployed have had no job for a year or more.

– Zombie Jurnolist

– On high tech lynchings.

– Godden had actually filed the public records request for the performance reviews, and we posted about them to show she was digging for a smear that didn’t exist..

– I’ve never even been to Ohio, and I know don’t say this.

– Parallel Earth Primary.

Last week’s contest was won by wes.in.wa. It was Hilo, Hawaii.

This week’s is another random location somewhere in the world, good luck!

Deuteronomy 14:18
You must not eat bats.

Discuss.

I’m going to delve into a bit of poll wonkery here, so if this kind of thing doesn’t trip your trigger, go check your email or something.

There are a lot of polls I’ll not bother to write about.

For example, the Zogby Interactive polls are pretty much bullshit because the samples don’t come close to approximating a random sample of eligible voters. Likewise, I usually ignore polls conducted on behalf of candidates or a party. In that case, the polls may use perfectly fine methods conducted to professional standards. The problem is that the results may be released strategically—that is, released if the findings are favorable to a candidate or party and kept private otherwise. In other words, the poll itself isn’t representative.

Yesterday I came across a new type of poll from SurveyAnalytics . Here are the sampling methods described in the top-lines:

SurveyAnalytics conducted an online survey of 2,001 voters in King County, including the City of Seattle. All of these voters were determined to be likely to vote in the November 2011 General Election. SurveyAnalytics recruited respondents from a voter list purchased from Labels & Lists, which included citizens who had voted in 2, 3 or 4 of the most recent General Elections. Respondents were contacted via e-mail following an e-mail matching process also conducted by Labels & Lists. Voters completed the survey online using SurveyAnalytics’ CityFeedback platform.

Okay…the methods sound interesting, although I don’t know how the “email matching process” works. Older folks are likely underrepresented because many still don’t have email addresses or computers. But traditional land-line polls under-represent young voters, who are more likely to have only a cell phone for a telephone.

SurveyAnalytics compares their sample to a SurveyUSA poll of King County taken in 2009, and they find very similar results for sex and ethnicity, as well as crudely categorized education and income variables. But the SurveyAnalytics sample is, as expected, slightly younger compared to SurveyUSA’s poll. An alternative interpretation is that the SurveyUSA sample—based on robocalling land-lines—was too old!

I cannot vouch for the representativeness of this poll. I do find the methods intriguing. With that…here are some results from their survey of 2,001 King County likely voters (MOE 2.24%) taken from October 29 to November 2:

• Obama 52%, Romney 24%, Neither 13%
• When asked for names of people running for Governor, McKenna’s name was given by 68%, Inslee’s by 57%
• A head-to-head match-up gives McKenna 36%, Inslee 35%
• Cantwell is at 54% to the sum of all other Republicans at 35%
• I-1183 (liquor privatization): 61% yes, 33% no
• I-1125 (Eyman/Freedman anti-tolls/anti-transit): 50% no, 38% yes
• I-1163 (background checks, training on long term care workers): 60% yes, 25% no

Again, keep in mind that these results are for King County only.

Out of curiosity, I’ve compared the SurveyAnalytics poll to the “Puget Sound” sample from the recent Washington Poll. I’m not sure what “Puget Sound” is defined as in the Washington Poll, but keep in mind that the samples in the two polls are not strictly comparable.

Obama does marginally well in King County by this poll at 52%. But the total of all Republican candidate percentages is only 24 36%, with Romney at 24%. The Washington Poll has an Obama—Romney match-up giving Obama 55% to Romney’s 37% in “Puget Sound”. The difference may largely be the number of undecideds, perhaps reflecting how the question was asked.

The most interesting finding is that McKenna and Inslee are practically tied in King County. This isn’t as bad as it looks for Inslee, as McKenna had an extra 10% of people who could say he was running. The Washington Poll found Inslee leading McKenna in “Puget Sound” 45% to 40%. As I mentioned earlier, Inslee probably does better relative to McKenna as more of the undecideds decide. And to win, he’ll have to do much better in King County in November 2012….

The I-1183 findings are more favorable at 62% Yes, 33% No compared to Washington Poll’s 52%, 42% split for “Puget Sound”.

Initiative 1125 loses by a whopping 50% to 38% in King County; the Washington Poll’s Puget Sound sample rejected the initiative by a more modest 43% to 42%.

It will be interesting to compare the actual vote in King County for the initiatives this election to these poll results, if only to assess whether this particular internet-based polling method is any good. And whether future polls of this type are worth our attention.

Alyona: Today is “Bank Transfer Day”:

Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Conan does a same-sex wedding on his show (via Slog).

Ann Telnaes: Seven Billion.

Daily Show on how a bill donsn’t become a law.

America Occupied:

• Thom: OWS vs. Koch-ville
• South Park takes on the Occupy Movement.
• Young Turks: OWS-inspired Constitutional amendment to reverse Citizens United.
• Gov. Scott Walker gets a taste of the human microphone (via Slog).
• Sam Seder: Anatomy of an OWS smear.
• The Occupy Main Street movement:
• Liberal Viewer: FAUX News blames protesters for police violence.
• Thom on revolutions
• Stephen tries to buy OWS
• Stephen isn’t done trying to buy OWS
• Thom: OWS is America’s first general strike in 65 years.

Sam Seder: The Republican “God” job plan.

Alyona: Mass corporate tax dodging.

Ann Telnaes: China to bail out the Euro.

Thom with some more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

The Republican Primary Asylum:

• Mitt’s spending plan.
• Thom on the Mitness protection program.
• Why Mitt Romney is very bad for women.
• Mark Fiore: Zero-zero-zero.
• Liberal Viewer: FAUX News bias on Ron Paul poll.
• Stephen: Herman Cain’s foreign policy experience.
• Herman Cain’s innocent gesture.
• Newsy: Cain supporters call it a high tech lynching.
• Stephen on the impending sexual harassment allegations against him.
• Actual Audio: Rick Perry has an awesome tax plan.

Alyona’s Tool Time: John Boehner on Norquist.

Obama: On investing.

Glenn Beck is just happy to be noticed as Worst Person in the World.

Jon the Racist:

• Jon on The Donald’s charges of racism.
• Alyona’s Tool Time: The Donald on accusing Jon of being a racist.

White House: West Wing Week.

Judge William Adams (Arkansas County Court-at-Law, Texas) is Worst Person in the World.

Sam Seder: Ann Coulter’s, “Our blacks are the best blacks.

Twilight: “Say it”:

Are the Koch brothers denying your vote?

Alyona’s Fire Side chat: Escalating drone war unnoticed.

Thom: The secret list of 14 words.

Sam Seder: How do you debunk a Libertarian? Let ’em talk.

G.O.P.’s Big Job Creation Idea:

• Alyona’s Tool Time: The GOP’s “In God We Trust” resolution
• Jon: In God We Trust resolution.

Sam Seder: How racism still influences American politics.

Ann Telnaes: The McFib.

Ed and Pap: Tea Party is okay with sexual harassment.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Bruce Ramsey seems awful upset by a press release from Mike O’Brien that says, “I got sick of all the fees and hassle of the big banks, making life difficult for customers while reaping record profits.” He takes issue on the fact that Bank of America (who O’Brien didn’t name as his bank) didn’t make a profit for a few years, showing their profits and losses from 2006 to 2010:

2006 $21 billion
2007 $15 billion
2008 $2.6 billion
2009 ($2.2 billion) loss
2010 ($3.6 billion) loss

So, how much did B of A to make in the third quarter of 2011, you ask? Oh, $6.2 Billion. Still, I don’t think O’Brien begrudges the banks their profits, I think it’s more the hassle and fees that he cites that are the problem.

Ramsey is also upset about the fact that O’Brien is sharing this in a press release. But it seems to me, it’s information his constituents might want.