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Upheld!

by Darryl — Thursday, 6/28/12, 8:08 am

The Supreme Court has largely upheld the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA).

My limited understanding from media coverage is that the ruling on the “mandate” is narrow. The crux of the argument: The U.S. government can tax. Period. Since the mandate is a tax incentive, it’s not outside the constitutional scope for congress to enact such a tax incentive for people to purchase insurance.

Two quick points. First, we see once again, that Democrats lost the battle of words by the fact that the tax incentive provision became known as a “mandate.”

The fact is, it isn’t a mandate. It is an incentive. You are not mandated to purchase insurance. Rather, you pay a tax if you can afford but don’t purchase insurance. Or, put another way, you avoid paying a tax if you have insurance.

The word “mandate” is one of those wingnut terms of art (like “death tax”) that is factually inaccurate, but is fantastic for stoking emotions. It makes for good hate-stoking.

The second point. Of the thousand and thousands of words I’ve read on the constitutionality/unconstitutionality of the PPACA after the lawsuits were announced, one of the best was written by none other than Goldy:

See, the recently passed health care reform legislation does not require that all U.S. citizens purchase insurance, it merely provides a tax incentive to those of us who do. If you are not covered by an employer, and if you have not purchased your own individual policy, and if your income is above certain levels, and if you don’t hail from a state that has opted out of this mandate by implementing its own qualified health insurance system, you will be required to pay an additional federal tax, starting at the greater of $95 or 1% of income in 2014, and rising to $695 or 2.5% of income in 2016, up to a cap of the national average premium on a bronze plan. Both the minimum tax and the cap will increase by the annual cost of living adjustment.

Now, some might argue that this is still a mandate to engage in some sort of economic activity because it targets a tax at those who refuse, but one could easily flip this perception around. What it really is, is a flat, 2.5% federal income tax — much along the lines of what is already imposed to fund Social Security and Medicare — but for which the law provides a substantial exemption to those who choose to purchase private health insurance.

And don’t attempt to bog down this discussion in jibberish over whether this is a “tax” or a “fee” or a “penalty” or a “mandate” or whatever. The courts have long been consistent that lawmakers need not jump through such semantic hoops; if a law is constitutional worded one way, it is constitutional worded another, as long as the practical application is the same. And clearly, our tax laws are filled with provisions intend to encourage some economic activities and discourage others.

Along these lines, a better analogy than Troll’s theoretical handgun mandate would be our current home mortgage interest deduction. The federal government does not actually mandate that we all take out big mortgages to buy homes and condos, but it grants huge tax advantages to those who do, essentially penalizing renters. Think about it: with the extra tax revenue from eliminating the home mortgage interest deduction, the federal government could lower the base tax rate on all of us.

So, if the health insurance mandate-cum-exemption is unconstitutional based on the contention that it compels individuals to engage in an economic activity, then so too would be the home mortgage interest deduction, and any number of other federal tax incentives. And I sincerely doubt that McKenna would choose to join a lawsuit seeking to deny Washington homeowners this very popular deduction.

If the “mandate” is unconstitutional, so is the mortgage interest deduction. After all, it “mandates” that you take out a mortgage loan, or pay a tax penalty.

Finally…winners and losers: First, this secures Obama’s legacy. Even though the PPACA was only one of many solid accomplishments of Obama’s first two years, this one is more defining and will positively, directly touch the lives of more Americans. (Ironically, candidate Obama opposed a “mandate” while he was campaigning against Clinton in 2008.) Second, this takes away Romney’s arguments that “Obama didn’t do anything” when he had a Democratic House and Senate.

Likewise, Democrats win by getting through another great social program. This is, after all, the real reason why Republicans oppose this largely Republican-designed program.

On the other hand, this is a win for conservatives, in that they will certainly be motivated by hatred, anger, fear of “socialism” largely out of the misconception that the government is now “forcing them to do something.”

The other big winner is Rob McKenna, who by losing the lawsuit he claims to have co-founded, dodges a huge bullet. Who wants the vote for the prick that kicked you off your parent’s insurance, or the asshole that quadrupled your insurance costs because of a pre-existing condition?

The final big winner is America—we have now joined most of the rest of the civilized world by making health care available to the poorest of our citizens. A reversal would have been a tragedy for untold millions of Americans. The PPACA is far from perfect, but it’s almost certainly better than what we had.

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Open Thread 6/28

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 6/28/12, 7:49 am

– The individual mandate is Constitutional.

– I doubt it, but maybe this ruling will tamp down on other nonsense from the GOP.

– Of Flooding and Fetus-Americans

– Coyote hunter in West Seattle

– Religious institutions are not the only entities that can or should work towards providing for basic human needs, but now that the consent decree has expired, private entities do not have a way to host an encampment.

– I was surprised to learn that there hasn’t been a Nordstrom in New York until now.

– Masters of the Universe-ity

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Health Care Decision Rallies

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 6/27/12, 8:28 pm

WordPress (or more likely user error) seems to have eaten my last post, so here again is the link to info about the rallies after tomorrow’s Supreme Court decisions.

Attend a rapid response event near you!

This Thursday, the US Supreme Court is expected to rule on Rob McKenna’s partisan challenge to the Affordable Care Act – President Obama’s health care reform law. It’s perhaps the most anticipated Supreme Court ruling in our nation’s history.

Regardless of the outcome, we’ll be ready. Please RSVP on Washington Community Action Network’s web site.

Thursday, June 28 outside the Attorney General’s offices around the state

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4 Teams

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 6/27/12, 5:06 pm

I’m not a huge college football fan, but I was glad that there will be a 4 team playoff in college football starting in 2014. It seems like the worthiness of the third and fourth choices is often indistinguishable from the second team that actually gets to play for the championship. I imagine there will still be controversies about who gets to play in this tournament. But a debate about who is the number 4 team is very different from a debate about who is the number 2 team.

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Sanctuary

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 6/27/12, 7:52 am

I’m still reading through the Arizona immigration Supreme Court decision, but I expect that come Thursday, all of the Supreme Court discussion discussion will be about health care. So I’d like to get to the logical conclusion of Scalia’s dissent before that happens. It seems to me that if this is true, then it cuts both ways.

In his point-by-point defense of the Arizona legislation, the avowed law-and-order conservative surmised that the Obama administration “desperately wants to avoid upsetting foreign powers.” He accused federal officials of “willful blindness or deliberate inattention” to the presence of illegal immigrants in Arizona.

“[T]o say, as the Court does, that Arizona contradicts federal law by enforcing applications of the Immigration Act that the President declines to enforce boggles the mind,” Scalia wrote. “If securing its territory in this fashion is not within the power of Arizona, we should cease referring to it as a sovereign State.”

If a state has the right to, essentially do anything to keep anyone out, doesn’t another state have the right to keep anyone in? Or to make anyone a citizen? It seems to me if states can’t decide who is a citizen of the United States we can’t call them sovereign states. I guess that’s why we don’t.

So it seems to me if Scalia’s positions ever become the majority on the court, Washington should become a sanctuary state. We should let anyone become a citizen as long as they aren’t here to do us harm.

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Poll Analysis: Romney creeps up a bit

by Darryl — Tuesday, 6/26/12, 6:49 pm


Obama Romney
99.3% probability of winning 0.7% probability of winning
Mean of 323 electoral votes Mean of 215 electoral votes

Nine new state head-to-head polls have been released in the contest between Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama since my previous analysis:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO WeAskAmerica 25-Jun 25-Jun 1083 3.0 46.6 43.0 O+3.6
MI Denno Research 14-Jun 15-Jun 600 4.0 40 40 tie
NH ARG 21-Jun 24-Jun 417 — 49 46 O+3
NC Rasmussen 25-Jun 25-Jun 500 4.5 44 47 R+3
OH PPP 21-Jun 24-Jun 673 3.8 47 44 O+3
OR PPP 21-Jun 24-Jun 686 3.7 50 42 O+8
UT Dan Jones 15-Jun 21-Jun 1222 2.8 26 68 R+42
VA WeAskAmerica 25-Jun 25-Jun 1106 3.0 43.3 48.0 R+4.7
VA ODU 16-May 15-Jun 776 3.5 49 42 O+7

The unsurprising polls include one from Oregon that gives Obama a +8% lead over Romney, and the first poll of the year in Utah that gives Romney a +42% advantage over Obama.

Colorado puts Obama up by +3.6% over Romney. The four current polls weigh solidly in Obama’s favor, as does the overall polling picture:
ObamaRomney26May12-26Jun12Colorado

The fourth Michigan poll released in the past week has the race tied at 40% each. Combined with two other recent polls, Obama has the slightest lead in the state overall, giving him an expected 68% probability of taking the state (if the election was held now).

The second New Hampshire poll in a week has Obama up by a tight +3% over Romney. (Note that I used the Likely Voter results instead of the Registered Voter results given for this poll.) The pair of polls combined gives Obama an 81% chance of taking the state at this point.

Romney takes the most recent North Carolina poll with a weak +3% lead over Obama. That makes five leads in a row for Mitt, all since mid-May:
ObamaRomney26May12-26Jun12North Carolina

Ohio gives Obama a small +3% lead, breaking Romney’s two poll lead streak. The three current polls in that race give Romney a thin 55% probability of taking the state at this point:
ObamaRomney26May12-26Jun12Ohio

Two new Virginia polls split. One goes to Obama by +7% and the other goes to Romney by +4.7%. The weight of the evidence from the five recent polls is that Obama would take the state now with a 83% probability.

ObamaRomney26May12-26Jun12Virginia

I want to again express my gratitude to Sam Minter, who does his own poll aggregation exercise. Sam systematically compared our poll databases, resolved the discrepancies, and sent corrections to me over the past month. Also, I thank the HA commenter who noticed an error in the Nebraska past elections numbers, and persisted in getting through to me when I missed his comment.

Okay…so now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,310 times and Romney wins 690 times (including the 63 ties). Obama takes (on average) 323 to Romney’s 215 electoral votes. For an election held now, Obama would have a 99.3% probability of winning and Romney, a 0.7% probability of winning.

Since the previous analysis Romney has gained an expected +3 electoral votes and has more than doubled his probability of winning (now), but that works out to less than a 1% probability overall of winning.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 6/26/12, 3:25 pm

DLBottle

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Tonight there are elections in Colorado, New York, Oklahoma and Utah, but we’ll likely ignore them to talk about other issues: the Governor and AG races in Washington, as well as recent and forthcoming Supreme Court decisions.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight there are also meetings of the Tri-Cities and Bellingham chapters. The Burien chapter meets on Wednesday, and the Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday. Then on Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including eleven in Washington state and four more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Open Thread 6/26

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 6/26/12, 7:59 am

– This chart of Congressional wealth is one of those charts that shocks you with things you could have guessed.

– The Seattle Great Wheel looks like it will be pretty neat.

– This idea for filibuster reform is a bit overly complex. But in general it’s solid.

– WTF, SPD?

– Clearly this is not Romney’s party – yet, anyway. Other Republicans’ willingness to buck and rebuke him signals not bracing political independence – party leaders haven’t had the guts to stand up to the birthers in their ranks – but insecurity about their November prospects. A lot of Republicans seem to have their eye on November – of 2016.

– Spoke and Food

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Going After The Right Person

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 6/25/12, 5:12 pm

I like Darcy Burner, but unlike a lot of bloggers, I’m willing to wait and see who gets through the primary. I don’t live in the district so I don’t have to choose. And a lot of the candidates have done good things. Still, I’m encouraged by things like this in my email box.

I’ve heard Republicans lie. I’ve heard Fox News manipulate the truth. I’ve heard plenty of outrageous things. John Koster proved that through either ignorance or willful rejection of reality, Republicans can still shock me.

In an interview that will air on Sunday on King5, a question was asked about Congress addressing marriage equality. I answered that not only should we repeal DOMA, but we should go further and provide all married couples with all of the Federal benefits of marriage.

I was stunned by what followed.

John Koster jumped right in with an outrageous statement.

“…there is no Federal Defense of Marriage Act…”

Yes, of course on one level, it’s another fundraising appeal. Still I’m glad the heat is directed to Koster, and not the other Democrats.

Now look, I love primaries and I have no problem with them getting a bit rough and tumble (there are important issues at play). But these are the sort of things I love most about primaries. Even if Rudderman wins, all of Darcy Burner’s supporters (who bother to open their email, and read it) will have seen this. And if any media (beyond HA) mention it, even better.

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Open Thread 6/25

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 6/25/12, 7:53 am

– Decline to sign the charter schools initiative.

– Vincent Chin would have been 57 today. But the Michigan man never made it out of his 20s. Instead, 30 years ago this week Chin was brutally murdered when he was bludgeoned with a baseball bat wielded by two white, jobless auto workers who thought Chin, a Chinese-American man, was Japanese.

– Lou Dobbs is a horrible person [h/t].

– If evangelicalism were primarily a theological tradition, then British and American evangelicals would be more similar than they are. But American evangelicalism has ceased to be mainly a theological category. It’s now mainly a political subculture, a tribe.

– Pennsylvania State University, as an institution, decided that protecting Joe Paterno’s reputation and winning a few more football games was more important than stopping the ongoing rape of young boys.

– Give me a rambling rover.

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 6/24/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was won by wes.in.wa. It was the Whispering Firs Golf Course on JBLM.

This week’s contest is related to something in the news from June, good luck!

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 6/24/12, 7:00 am

Psalm 82:1
When all of the other gods have come together, the Lord God judges them

Discuss.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 6/22/12, 11:58 pm

Obama For America outtakes.

Young Turks: CIA documents show Bin Laden warnings ignored:

Thom: Republicans find another union to bust.

Greenman: Climate crocks…Marc Morano at Heartland.

ONN: The Onion Week in Review.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Sam Seder: New 9/11 documents expose Bush admin. lies.

Susie Sampson Tea Party Report: Immigration!

Full of Mitt:

  • SlateNews: Mitt to America: Ignore the good news.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt talks and talks but won’t answer on immigration.
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Mitt Romney wants G.O.P. Govs to lie to Americans.
  • Obama on Mitt Romney outsourcing jobs.
  • Thom: Mitt wants a 12.5% Tax Break that you pay for.
  • Mitt Romeny on immigration reform.
  • Maddow: Romney fails to lead on immigration
  • Ann Telnaes: Mitt explains his immigration policy.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt’s sons on their dad.
  • Romney learns about touchtone touch screen technology (via Slog).
  • John King on Romney’s immigration speech
  • Mark Fiore: DeficitBots.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt to G.O.P. Governors, “Shhhhhhhh”.

Slate News: Springsteen won’t hang with Chris Christie.

Alyona: Romney Doppelganger hates poor people.

Indecision in the park.

A clown answer for Harry Reid: video platform
video management
video solutions
video player

Sam Seder: Vagina mentioning Rep. like “child who needed a time out”.

Thom: What do Republicans love about rape?

Young Turks: Secret right wing money spent on deceptive ads.

Ann Telnaes: Sheldon Adelson’s gift.

Fast, but mostly Furious:

  • Thom and Pap: Ongoing Fast and Furious conspiracy theory.
  • Jon attacks the Obama admin over executive privilege.
  • Sam Seder: GOP’s sad attempt at finding a scandal.
  • Ed and Pap: Darrel Issa’s contempt for democracy
  • Maddow: Gun fanatics invent conspiracy, ignore real gun violence.
  • Thom: F&F, why didn’t Pelosi arrest Rove?

ONN: Tea Party quiet—too quiet.

Sam Seder and Chris Hayes: Twilight of the Elites: America After Meritocracy.

Young Turks: Poll shows Republicans grossly misinformed on Iran, Iraq.

Alyona: Indiana Wingnut covers his bases on SCOTUS ruling.

Obama in Tampa.

“Joe” the “Historian”:

  • Slate News: Joe’s surreal ad
  • “Joe” the “Plumber” blames gun control for the Holocaust.
  • Sam Seder: Joe’s new bizarre ad.

White House: West Wing Week.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Arizona’s Secretary of State Ken Bennett is back with more Birfer insanity.

Anti-Obama teleprompter ad.

Young Turks: 2/3 of Republicans believe Obama was born outside of U.S.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: Romney slips

by Darryl — Friday, 6/22/12, 12:30 pm


Obama Romney
99.7% probability of winning 0.3% probability of winning
Mean of 326 electoral votes Mean of 212 electoral votes

Ten days ago, Mitt Romney was on a roll. He had increased his probability of beating President Obama in a hypothetical election held then from 0.4% to 0.8%, and he gained in expected electoral votes up to 225. That was last week. This week, Romney slips.

There have been 18 new polls released to weigh in on the race:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ PPP 04-Jun 05-Jun 791 3.5 46 49 R+3
CO PPP 14-Jun 17-Jun 799 3.5 49 42 O+7
FL Quinnipiac 12-Jun 18-Jun 1697 2.4 46 42 O+4
IA WeAskAmerica 18-Jun 18-Jun 1086 3.0 45 44 O+1
ME WBUR 13-Jun 14-Jun 506 4.4 48 34 O+14
MI Mitchell 18-Jun 18-Jun 750 3.6 47 46 O+1
MI WeAskAmerica 18-Jun 18-Jun 1010 3.1 43 45 R+2
MI Rasmussen 14-Jun 14-Jun 500 4.5 50 42 O+8
MI Baydoun 12-Jun 12-Jun 1783 2.3 46.9 45.5 O+1.4
MT Rasmussen 18-Jun 18-Jun 400 4.5 42 51 R+9
NE PNA 11-Jun 13-Jun 601 — 40 52 R+12
NV PPP 07-Jun 10-Jun 500 4.4 48 42 O+6
NH Rasmussen 20-Jun 20-Jun 500 4.5 48 43 O+5
NJ Eagleton-Rutgers 31-May 04-Jun 1065 2.9 56 33 O+23
WA PPP 14-Jun 17-Jun 1073 3.0 54 41 O+13
WA Elway 13-Jun 16-Jun 408 5.0 49 41 O+8
WI Marquette 13-Jun 15-Jun 594 4.1 49 43 O+6
WI Rasmussen 12-Jun 12-Jun 500 4.5 44 47 R+3

[Read more…]

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What Would You Poll?

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 6/22/12, 8:03 am

Via Blue Oregon, I see that PPP are asking for suggestions for what they want polled in OR, OH and MA. But it got me thinking of some things I’d like polled in Washington.

  • I know it’s my hobby horse, and nobody else cares. But I’d like to see if there’s any support for making it necessary to get 2/3 of the legislature to cut education or social services.
  • I don’t trust the conventional wisdom on the 10th district. I don’t know that a district that’s largely exurban and suburban Pierce County and has Joint Base Lewis-McChord in the middle of it with Olympia (and Olympia’s suburbs) should be considered safe for Democrats. I’d like to see polling confirming that.
  • Since we’re on this blog, how about “Is Tim Eyman a Horse’s Ass?”

But enough of me saying what I’d like to see, what would you like to see in polls in Washington State?

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  • Knock yourselves out Wednesday, 8/13/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 8/12/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 8/11/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 8/8/25
  • Friday Open Thread Friday, 8/8/25
  • Commingling Agape Thursday, 8/7/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 8/5/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 8/4/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 8/1/25
  • Friday Open Thread Friday, 8/1/25

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