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Going After The Right Person

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 6/25/12, 5:12 pm

I like Darcy Burner, but unlike a lot of bloggers, I’m willing to wait and see who gets through the primary. I don’t live in the district so I don’t have to choose. And a lot of the candidates have done good things. Still, I’m encouraged by things like this in my email box.

I’ve heard Republicans lie. I’ve heard Fox News manipulate the truth. I’ve heard plenty of outrageous things. John Koster proved that through either ignorance or willful rejection of reality, Republicans can still shock me.

In an interview that will air on Sunday on King5, a question was asked about Congress addressing marriage equality. I answered that not only should we repeal DOMA, but we should go further and provide all married couples with all of the Federal benefits of marriage.

I was stunned by what followed.

John Koster jumped right in with an outrageous statement.

“…there is no Federal Defense of Marriage Act…”

Yes, of course on one level, it’s another fundraising appeal. Still I’m glad the heat is directed to Koster, and not the other Democrats.

Now look, I love primaries and I have no problem with them getting a bit rough and tumble (there are important issues at play). But these are the sort of things I love most about primaries. Even if Rudderman wins, all of Darcy Burner’s supporters (who bother to open their email, and read it) will have seen this. And if any media (beyond HA) mention it, even better.

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Open Thread 6/25

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 6/25/12, 7:53 am

– Decline to sign the charter schools initiative.

– Vincent Chin would have been 57 today. But the Michigan man never made it out of his 20s. Instead, 30 years ago this week Chin was brutally murdered when he was bludgeoned with a baseball bat wielded by two white, jobless auto workers who thought Chin, a Chinese-American man, was Japanese.

– Lou Dobbs is a horrible person [h/t].

– If evangelicalism were primarily a theological tradition, then British and American evangelicals would be more similar than they are. But American evangelicalism has ceased to be mainly a theological category. It’s now mainly a political subculture, a tribe.

– Pennsylvania State University, as an institution, decided that protecting Joe Paterno’s reputation and winning a few more football games was more important than stopping the ongoing rape of young boys.

– Give me a rambling rover.

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 6/24/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was won by wes.in.wa. It was the Whispering Firs Golf Course on JBLM.

This week’s contest is related to something in the news from June, good luck!

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 6/24/12, 7:00 am

Psalm 82:1
When all of the other gods have come together, the Lord God judges them

Discuss.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 6/22/12, 11:58 pm

Obama For America outtakes.

Young Turks: CIA documents show Bin Laden warnings ignored:

Thom: Republicans find another union to bust.

Greenman: Climate crocks…Marc Morano at Heartland.

ONN: The Onion Week in Review.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Sam Seder: New 9/11 documents expose Bush admin. lies.

Susie Sampson Tea Party Report: Immigration!

Full of Mitt:

  • SlateNews: Mitt to America: Ignore the good news.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt talks and talks but won’t answer on immigration.
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Mitt Romney wants G.O.P. Govs to lie to Americans.
  • Obama on Mitt Romney outsourcing jobs.
  • Thom: Mitt wants a 12.5% Tax Break that you pay for.
  • Mitt Romeny on immigration reform.
  • Maddow: Romney fails to lead on immigration
  • Ann Telnaes: Mitt explains his immigration policy.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt’s sons on their dad.
  • Romney learns about touchtone touch screen technology (via Slog).
  • John King on Romney’s immigration speech
  • Mark Fiore: DeficitBots.
  • Sam Seder: Mitt to G.O.P. Governors, “Shhhhhhhh”.

Slate News: Springsteen won’t hang with Chris Christie.

Alyona: Romney Doppelganger hates poor people.

Indecision in the park.

A clown answer for Harry Reid: video platform
video management
video solutions
video player

Sam Seder: Vagina mentioning Rep. like “child who needed a time out”.

Thom: What do Republicans love about rape?

Young Turks: Secret right wing money spent on deceptive ads.

Ann Telnaes: Sheldon Adelson’s gift.

Fast, but mostly Furious:

  • Thom and Pap: Ongoing Fast and Furious conspiracy theory.
  • Jon attacks the Obama admin over executive privilege.
  • Sam Seder: GOP’s sad attempt at finding a scandal.
  • Ed and Pap: Darrel Issa’s contempt for democracy
  • Maddow: Gun fanatics invent conspiracy, ignore real gun violence.
  • Thom: F&F, why didn’t Pelosi arrest Rove?

ONN: Tea Party quiet—too quiet.

Sam Seder and Chris Hayes: Twilight of the Elites: America After Meritocracy.

Young Turks: Poll shows Republicans grossly misinformed on Iran, Iraq.

Alyona: Indiana Wingnut covers his bases on SCOTUS ruling.

Obama in Tampa.

“Joe” the “Historian”:

  • Slate News: Joe’s surreal ad
  • “Joe” the “Plumber” blames gun control for the Holocaust.
  • Sam Seder: Joe’s new bizarre ad.

White House: West Wing Week.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Arizona’s Secretary of State Ken Bennett is back with more Birfer insanity.

Anti-Obama teleprompter ad.

Young Turks: 2/3 of Republicans believe Obama was born outside of U.S.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: Romney slips

by Darryl — Friday, 6/22/12, 12:30 pm


Obama Romney
99.7% probability of winning 0.3% probability of winning
Mean of 326 electoral votes Mean of 212 electoral votes

Ten days ago, Mitt Romney was on a roll. He had increased his probability of beating President Obama in a hypothetical election held then from 0.4% to 0.8%, and he gained in expected electoral votes up to 225. That was last week. This week, Romney slips.

There have been 18 new polls released to weigh in on the race:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ PPP 04-Jun 05-Jun 791 3.5 46 49 R+3
CO PPP 14-Jun 17-Jun 799 3.5 49 42 O+7
FL Quinnipiac 12-Jun 18-Jun 1697 2.4 46 42 O+4
IA WeAskAmerica 18-Jun 18-Jun 1086 3.0 45 44 O+1
ME WBUR 13-Jun 14-Jun 506 4.4 48 34 O+14
MI Mitchell 18-Jun 18-Jun 750 3.6 47 46 O+1
MI WeAskAmerica 18-Jun 18-Jun 1010 3.1 43 45 R+2
MI Rasmussen 14-Jun 14-Jun 500 4.5 50 42 O+8
MI Baydoun 12-Jun 12-Jun 1783 2.3 46.9 45.5 O+1.4
MT Rasmussen 18-Jun 18-Jun 400 4.5 42 51 R+9
NE PNA 11-Jun 13-Jun 601 — 40 52 R+12
NV PPP 07-Jun 10-Jun 500 4.4 48 42 O+6
NH Rasmussen 20-Jun 20-Jun 500 4.5 48 43 O+5
NJ Eagleton-Rutgers 31-May 04-Jun 1065 2.9 56 33 O+23
WA PPP 14-Jun 17-Jun 1073 3.0 54 41 O+13
WA Elway 13-Jun 16-Jun 408 5.0 49 41 O+8
WI Marquette 13-Jun 15-Jun 594 4.1 49 43 O+6
WI Rasmussen 12-Jun 12-Jun 500 4.5 44 47 R+3

[Read more…]

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What Would You Poll?

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 6/22/12, 8:03 am

Via Blue Oregon, I see that PPP are asking for suggestions for what they want polled in OR, OH and MA. But it got me thinking of some things I’d like polled in Washington.

  • I know it’s my hobby horse, and nobody else cares. But I’d like to see if there’s any support for making it necessary to get 2/3 of the legislature to cut education or social services.
  • I don’t trust the conventional wisdom on the 10th district. I don’t know that a district that’s largely exurban and suburban Pierce County and has Joint Base Lewis-McChord in the middle of it with Olympia (and Olympia’s suburbs) should be considered safe for Democrats. I’d like to see polling confirming that.
  • Since we’re on this blog, how about “Is Tim Eyman a Horse’s Ass?”

But enough of me saying what I’d like to see, what would you like to see in polls in Washington State?

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Is Opposing Marriage Equality Christian?

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 6/21/12, 7:17 pm

I don’t think it is. I mean we’re a secular country. So our laws don’t reflect one doctrine or one religion over another. And Christians who oppose letting anyone getting married clearly aren’t the oppressed minority they seem to think they are.

Still, it’s nice to see the push back from the Christian community beyond just a live and let live attitude. Joel Connelly has an interesting piece on the Minnesota anti-marriage equality constitutional amendment. After noting the official Catholic Church position, he talks about Catholics who oppose the amendment:

Three retired priests recently sent a letter to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune under the heading, “Catholics of Minnesota, you have a choice. There is not just one way for Catholics to vote in November.”

Rev. Tom Garvey, a priest for 55 years, spoke to Minnesota Public Radio about Nienstedt’s edict, saying: “That was a terrible thing, such an injustice to say you cannot disagree with me on this matter.”

And in other religions, the officialdom is getting on the right side of history.

Five synods of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ECLA) have voted to oppose it. The United Methodist Church in Minnesota has come out against it.

The proposed amendment “would prevent one group of committed couples and their families from pursuing ordinary legislative or legal means to gain the support and protections afforded to all others,” said a resolution passed by the Minneapolis Synod of the ECLA.

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Open Thread 6/21

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 6/21/12, 8:02 am

– Oh, that kind of marriage equality.

– I didn’t know anything about the story of the story KIRO ran about the Leschi custodian. But the response from the Washington News Council makes me glad there’s at least some type of accountability.

– The Interurban Trail in Edmonds.

– This influx of cash followed a major effort by Zimmerman’s supporters to cast him as the real victim, a poor man being railroaded by the justice system and major media outlets. They flooded comment sections and social media with racist horseshit, tried desperately to dig up dirt on Martin and discovered that he was, get this, a fucking teenager, and did whatever they could to violently shove the media narrative in the other direction because it made their guy look bad and didn’t make the young boy he had killed look bad enough.

– Another 36th District debate.

– How have you been celebrating National Pollinator Week?

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Sex Demons

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 6/20/12, 6:11 pm

I should start out by saying that Mars Hill have been good neighbors since they opened a church in my neighborhood. They’re a part of the community, and it’s appreciated. That said, what the fuck [h/t]?

“Mark started the meeting by telling us he was convinced that I had demons,” says Amy, “and then he went on to add that my demons were ‘sexual demons’.”

Amy describes Mark’s demeanor toward her as a “fiery tirade”. During this encounter, Mark told Amy he believed that every one of her sins were “sex based.” He said that the demons inside her were out to destroy every one of the marriages in their circle of friends.

Really, I don’t know what to say (other than muttering “sex demons?” repeatedly under my breath, and that’s probably not helpful).

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Pride Flag

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 6/20/12, 7:49 am

It’s that time of year again. Time to debate if the Space Needle should fly the rainbow flag.

The Space Needle, a symbol of Seattle though owned by a private company, initially said it would not fly the rainbow flag last year. The company changed its mind after $50,000 was raised to benefit charities that work with the LGBT community, and the flag waved during Seattle’s 2011 Gay Pride Parade.

The 2012 parade is this weekend. Space Needle managers haven’t responded to my question about whether they will or won’t fly the flag atop the structure, now painted “galaxy orange” in honor of its 50th anniversary.

I hope they fly it every year, like the 12th man flag.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 6/19/12, 4:59 pm

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night, and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets this Thursday.

With 228 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and four more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Poll analysis: Two new WA gubernatorial polls

by Darryl — Tuesday, 6/19/12, 2:44 pm

Two new polls have been released this week in the Washington state gubernatorial contest between former 1st CD Congressman Jay Inslee and state AG Rob McKenna.

The first poll is from Elway. The poll surveyed 408 people (5% MOE) from the 13th to the 18th of June. McKenna leads Inslee in that poll 42% to 40%.

To translate McKenna’s lead into a probability statement, I ran a million simulated elections using the observed percentages and poll size from the Elway poll. Inslee won 369,617 to McKenna’s 615,161 wins, suggestingg that, for an election now, McKenna would beat Inslee with a 62.5% to 37.5% probability.

The other new poll is from Public Policy Polling, and surveyed 1,073 people (MOE 3%). The poll was conducted from the 14th to the 17th of June—it completely overlaps the Elway poll. In this poll, McKenna leads Inslee 43% to 40%.

Doing the same analysis for this second poll shows Inslee winning 219,670 “elections” and McKenna winning 773,413. In other words, this poll provides evidence that McKenna would win with a 77.9% probability in an eleciton held now.

But given the temporal overlap of the polls, we can do better by combining the two June polls. Together they cover 1,481 adult registered voters of whom 1,225 had decided on McKenna or Inslee. Inslee took 40.0% of the votes to McKenna’s 42.7%.

The Monte Carlo analysis gives Inslee 207,467 wins to McKenna’s 786,651 wins. In other words, the June polls suggest McKenna has a 79.1% probability of beating Inslee, and Inslee would win an election now with a 20.9% probability. Statisticians often consider a lead with anything less than a 95% winning chance to be a statistical tie.

Here is the distribution of election outcomes for the combined results:

PPPandElwayJune

And here is a snapshot of all the polls for this race:

InsleeMcKennaJune19

The new polls suggests to some folks (like Joni Balter and the election wonks at Daily Kos Elections) that the gap is closing in this race.

Could be. Or maybe it has just been close all along. A straight line through 48% Inslee to 52% McKenna fits within the margin of error for all of the polls. On the other hands, the polls from last year, taken as a whole, seem more favorable to McKenna than the collective polls taken this year.

I guess we need more polls to sort it out.

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Open Thread 6/19

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 6/19/12, 8:01 am

– I’m not sure zero tolerance is a good strategy for dealing with gun crimes. But the previous strategies clearly weren’t working.

– RIP Rodney King.

– If there is anything the Federal Reserve could be doing that it’s not doing — and there is — then they are to blame for this. For this multiplied by 14 million. For Ben Bernanke and his cohorts to be giving a single flying fig about the remote possibility of inflation right now really is obscene.

– If the Tea Party doesn’t want to be seen as racist, maybe don’t start off a rally with a racist joke.

– Lord Player says more homophobic nonsense.

– Publicola are back.

– Happy Solstice.

– This is the greatest headline in human history.

– Kill My Blues.

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Like Benedict Arnold. And Jesus.

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 6/18/12, 7:57 pm

When Lee and I (and some other folks) used to do metacommentary one of our favorite blogs to make fun of was Reagan Wing. Nowadays, they’re pretty much just a Ron Paul blog. And is keepusfree upset with Rand Paul, but don’t criticize him.

Rand Paul a Traitor?

No. He endorsed a different presidential candidate than you. Unless that presidential candidate is Jefferson Davis, it ain’t treason.

Along with many of you in the Liberty Movement, I watched and listened with sick horror to Rand Paul’s endorsement of Mitt Romney. But thinking about it, in a political sense, in a global context of what is happening in our world, I would like to offer a hypothesis.

I think you’ll be surprised to learn that there’s a difference between vague half articulated conspiracy theories and a hypothesis.

We do not know the pressures that might have been brought to bear on Ron and Rand Paul. The power wielded by the enemies of the free people of the world is enormous and they have no scruples, no mercy, and no justice. In a perfect world, there might be a “John Galt” moment, where Rand steps aside to reveal the gun pointed at him. But that is a novel. Real life is not so clean.

I think the enemies of free people probably brought a bear to bear on Rand Paul. What I’m saying is watch out for his family getting mauled by a grizzly if he switches back to his father. It can’t possibly have anything to do with delegate math. I know the Ron Paul people think they’ll just overwhelm the national convention. But (a) they won’t, and (b) even if they did, maybe Rand Paul thinks it would be immoral (or just bad politics) to nominate someone who couldn’t win the majority of a single state. But you know what, fuck all that: mysterious forces.

If the Powers That Be can see our heroes brought low, it is to their great advantage and will serve them well. That someone breaks under the kind of pressure that they can exert is to be expected.

The pressure of winning the nomination. Wait, am I defending Mitt Romney? What’s wrong with me? It must be The Powers That Be. Anyway, it goes on like this for a while: they’re brave truth tellers, and it’s oh so tough. Then we reach the conclusion.

Rand Paul’s Cross

In this metaphor, Rand Paul is Jesus. But maybe, I’m being too over the top. It’s a fairly common metaphor that we all understand. It’s not like she called his father “Father” with a capital “F” or something.

Before you criticize Rand Paul, you should walk a mile in his shoes. The road he is traveling cannot be easy and will be rocky and dangerous. But his Father must have passed on some of his stalwart principles to his son, and he may yet serve us, even while he faces our ire and castigation for something which well may be completely out of his control, or may be a part of something we cannot yet see or understand. It may be the cross he has to bear and the sacrifice he has to make in order to continue in the fight at all. Only time will tell.

Or, he’s just a politician with some awful ideas that are closer to his dad’s. But since his dad isn’t going to win the nomination, he endorsed the other guy with horrible ideas.

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