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Open Thread 7/17

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 7/17/12, 7:57 am

– I’m delighted Romney is now saying something in response to the question, but I’m having a tough time wrapping my head around this one. He’s going to keep his tax returns secret and hidden from public view because … Obama might find stuff?

– It may be the best thing for Seattle to get sued over excessive force by the police.

– McKenna’s aide’s anti-Asian and anti-elderly tweets.

– I keep forgetting to link to this set of basic political documents.

– Darryl and I have had some fun with #BainBookTitles.

– I love any podcast with Ken Tremendous.

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You Can’t Complain Until You Fix The Problem

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 7/16/12, 6:26 pm

This piece by Josh Feit about Patty Murray not wanting Super PAC’s in the 1st District race is basically fine. I don’t like Super PAC’s in general, but as long as they exist, I don’t mind them in primaries. But this struck me as particularly odd.

It’s grating enough when Democrats protest finance rules they object to by prescribing a holier than thou approach. Until you can actually reform finance rules, snooty protests just land you in the “L” column when you get outspent or outplayed.

I’m not sure how much it’s snooty to simply ask people to play nice. I like the rough and tumble of a primary, but plenty of people don’t. Still, the larger point is: Democrats, including Patty Murray, passed campaign finance reform. It was difficult and it took a lot of political capital. Then the Supreme Court invalidated it. Now it’ll take a Constitutional amendment or a different Supreme Court to fix things. Is Josh really saying until there’s a Constitutional amendment, Democrats can’t complain about the way things are. Not until they’ve fixed them? What the fuck is that?

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Open Thread 7/16

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 7/16/12, 8:04 am

– Team Mitt has a bit of a problem.

– It’s the rare feminist you will hear yelling, “Yeah, KILL HIM!” at a pee-wee football game.

– If the reason is to offer a balance of “both sides” then if nothing else, Mr Nethercutt provides a sterling example of how unbalanced one “side” is–even more so if he’s the best commentator the Inlander can get.

– You’ll be shocked to learn that Ron Paul people have some rather terrible ideas.

– The best thing to come out of the Romney I’m a CEO and not a CEO at the same time is John Cole’s pieces about Glenn Kessler.

– Obama and Kids.

– And kids on bikes

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The weekend feeding frenzy

by Darryl — Sunday, 7/15/12, 4:07 pm

Some hours after I posted the Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! there were interesting new developments in the 2012 Presidential race that can be appreciated best visually.

It began with this advertisement from the Obama campaign that had everyone all a-twitter:

David Kurtz at TPM, in particular, is awestruck by the ad:”One for the History Books” he titles a post, and at one point he comparing it to FDR LBJ’s Daisy ad (this one).

Locally, The Stranger‘s Paul Constant expressed some enthusiasm for the ad (his emphasis, not mine):

Holy fucking shit. This is the most brutal attack ad I’ve seen in a long, long time. It minces the hell out of Romney’s offshore fortunes and his record as a jobs exporter (in the private and public sectors). And it makes fun of Romney’s singing voice, turning his version of “America, the Beautiful” into a symbol of his warped view of patriotism

The Romney campaign hit back with an ad that can only be described as pathetic:

The thesis is that by hitting Mitt Romeny hard on the Bain thing, it somehow negates Obama’s “Hope and Change” message of the last campaign. The writers obviously try to confuse Obama, the President, and Obama, the candidate.

For over three years, Republicans have been warning about how President Obama was “changing America into something unrecognizable.” Now, the Romney camp is “warning” America that Obama is just like other candidates.

It is conceivable that this ad actually helps Obama, by defusing the “changing America into something unrecognizable” argument for folks who don’t recognize that campaigns are not the same thing as policy.

The weekend has brought out a plethora of politicos making the rounds on the talk shows, including bulldogs like Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Karl Rove—who has the naked audacity to “warn” Obama about negative campaigning. That’s hilarious!

But of all the interviews, the ones with Romney campaign senior adviser Ed Gillespie are the most interesting.

In an interview on CNN’s State of the Union, Gillespie stated (my emphasis):

“He is going to release them [2 years of tax returns], Candy, we’ve made that clear, and that’s the standard that Senator McCain, Republican nominee in the last election said was the relevant standard. It’s the standard that Senator John Kerry as the Democratic nominee said was the standard.”

First…he really ought to rethink citing the losers of the past two elections as the model. Just sayin’.

Another problem is that John Kerry did not say that was the standard. Gillespie was off by an order of magnitude. Kerry released 20 years of tax returns. So, about that “standard”….

And on NBC’s Meet the Press we get this gem when David Gregory asked about Mitt benefiting financially from Bain even while on leave:

He actually retired retroactively…

Watch the 00:01:57 clip:

The Twitterosphere has gone bananas with the hash tag #retroactively.

I’ll close by pointing out two things.

First, when the Romney campaign has to “explain” the subtly of Romney’s position during the “bad” Bain years by using a five syllable adverb, they’re not just losing the campaign battle, they’re fucking losing their base!

Secondly, I’ll point out again what a precarious position Romney is now in. We know he was drawing a six-figure salary for, apparently, being on leave; for being completely detached from decisions at Bain. But the media smells blood in that—they will relentlessly attempt to unearth evidence that Romney did make some big decisions. And they’ll probably find something.

But even if they don’t, Romney still has the (relatively unexamined) implications found in Gregory’s question: As the owner of and sole shareholder in Bain and other spin-off companies, Romney was at a minimum receiving salary and investment profit from outsourcing, layoffs, liquidations, the offshore tax havens and, apparently, disposal of fetuses.

That he solely owned Bain through 2001 is undisputed fact. It just makes him look like a weasel to absolve himself of all responsibility, while earning millions, because he was on leave. Or retired.&

&retroactively.

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 7/15/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was won by milwhcky for his second in a row. It was the Octopus Car Wash in Albuquerque, where scenes from Breaking Bad were filmed.

This week’s is a location somewhere in Washington state, good luck!

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 7/15/12, 7:12 am

Hosea 3:1-3
Once again the Lord spoke to me. And this time he said, “Hosea, fall in love with an unfaithful woman who has a lover. Do this to show that I love the people of Israel, even though they worship idols and enjoy the offering cakes made with fruit.”

So I paid fifteen pieces of silver and about ten bushels of grain for such a woman. Then I said, “Now you are mine! You will have to remain faithful to me, though it will be a long time before we sleep together.”

Discuss.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 7/13/12, 11:58 pm

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News profanity hypocrisy.

Pap: Republicans bury their heads in the sand on climate change.

Young Turks: Nutjobber Rep. Michele Bachmann, “Muslim Brotherhood infiltrating America”.

NAACP Convention:

  • Mitt Romney’s Black base.
  • Organs make political speeches better:
  • Slate News: Romney gets booed.
  • Young Turks: Joe Biden’s NAACP speech.
  • Young Turks: Mitt Romney NAACP speech conspiracy theories.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: David Brooks and “Meritocracies”.

ONN: Ron Paul makes campaign stop in whimsical jalopy.

Young Turks: Climate change or just hot weather?

Jimmy Kimmel: Boehner’s tears.

Ann Telnaes: Empowering women with choice and education.

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Mitt’s Olympic Trial:

  • Slate News: Is Mitt Romney lying about leaving Bain?
  • Young Turks: When did Mitt Romney leave Bain.
  • Vetting Mitt’s Veeps: Sarah Palin:
  • Ann Telnaes: Dick Cheney fundraiser.
  • Newsy: When did Mitt leave?
  • Young Turks: Obama campaign’s devastating, simple strategy to attack Romney.
  • Jenn: Mitt Romney is unworthy of the Presidency.
  • Maddow: Romney paid as a do-nothing President?!?
  • Bill Press: DNC on Romney’s ‘ludicrous and shocking’ claims about stimulus money
  • John Oliver: Mitt Romney is not boring.
  • Young Turks: Where in the world is Mitt’s Money.
  • Maddow: Ghosts of Bush Administration haunt Romney’s campaign.
  • Mitt’s Bain secret exposed!
  • Barely Political: An iPhone 4Mitt:
  • Daily Kos Radio: Bain-a-palooza
  • Thom and Pap: Romney caught Lying Again & Again & Again

Stephanie Miller: A Sarah Palin election sound bite.

Sam Seder: Rick Scott’s vision seems to be “Tuberculosis For Everyone!”

Thom: Do we need the Disclose Act or a Constitutional amendment?

Sam Seder: Ron and Rand’s internet manifesto.

Maddow: “Scott Brown claims Clinton, Biden call him!

Mark Fiore: The Godawful Particle.

Papantonio & Lizz Winstead: Lizz Free or Die.

Ann Telnaes: Boehner gets his health-care facts wrong.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

LePage-turner:

  • America’s STUPIDEST Governor??? LePage (R-ME) doubles down on comparing ‘Obamacare’ to the Holocaust (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • Young Turks: IRS=Gestapo.

Threatening the First Lady!?!

Greenman: Welcome to the rest of our lives:

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Maddow: Reprieve for Mississippi’s last abortion clinic.

Alyona: Whale Wars.

Young Turks: Obama’s “biggest mistake” during Charlie Rose interview.

Pap and Cliff Schecter on offshore banking scams:

  • Part I.
  • Part III.
  • Part III.

White House: West Wing Week.

Kimmel: This week in unnecessary censorship.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Flashes and crashes

by N in Seattle — Friday, 7/13/12, 9:42 pm

I’m sure I wasn’t the only person in the Puget Sound region who was shocked into wakefulness by a loud crash of thunder this morning. I was thrilled — in a positive sense — that it happened.

In my 11½ years as a Seattle resident, I recall exactly zero times when I’ve experienced a real, honest-to-god thunderstorm before today. On those very few occasions when we’ve had any lightning/thunder at all, it was always just a single flash and crash. And that one solitary event was often water-cooler fodder the next day.

That’s not how it was where I grew up. No, I’m not talking about Tornado Alley or any of those midwestern states where you could see that line of thunderstorms approaching for an hour or two before it hit. I’m from South Jersey (Exit 4, as we like to describe it). We had plenty of electrical storms there as well. The main difference was that we couldn’t see them coming as easily, since we had trees and hills and buildings there.

I love thunderstorms. Love the way the air seems to turn yellowish as the storm nears. Love to watch the sheets of rain as they pour down (under a non-conductive roof, that is). Once, when I lived in Pittsburgh, we sat on the front porch and saw an electrical transformer on a telephone pole across the street completely shorted out by a lightning hit … sparks, almost fireworks, and of course the neighborhood was suddenly without power.

I wonder whether very many Washingtonians know how to estimate how far away a lightning flash happens. It’s a simple formula, but why would anyone who grew up around here be familiar with it?

So, am I right or wrong about this? If you’re a Washington (or maybe just PacNW west of the Cascades) native, do you know how to calculate that distance? Do you even know that such an estimate is possible?

If you do know how to figure it, just say so; don’t reveal the formula. Wouldn’t want to let the other guys know about it too soon.

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2040 Doesn’t Seem Like That Far In The Future

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 7/13/12, 5:21 pm

I take Nick’s point about needing to get the operation up and running as quickly as possible. So yeah, it’s easier to get high speed rial in several segments (and would probably be the same for WA if we ever wanted Spokane-Seattle or Bellingham-Vancouver high speed rail) than just starting out DC-Boston. Get more of a buy in from places along the route. And get some people actually using it.

But again, 2040 doesn’t seem like it’s horribly far into the future.* Most big infrastructure projects are for the next generation.

[Read more…]

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Poll Analysis: No gains as Romney trails way behind

by Darryl — Friday, 7/13/12, 3:54 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 334 electoral votes Mean of 204 electoral votes

My previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney by 327 to 211 electoral votes, and with a 99.9% probability of winning an election held then.

Since then, eleven new polls covering nine states have been released:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA Field Poll 21-Jun 02-Jul 848 3.4 55 37 O+18
FL Rasmussen 09-Jul 09-Jul 500 4.5 45 46 R+1
ME Critical Insights 20-Jun 25-Jun 615 4.0 49 35 O+14
NM WeAskAmerica 09-Jul 10-Jul 1295 2.8 51 40 O+11
NC PPP 05-Jul 08-Jul 775 3.5 47 46 O+1
NC PNA 01-Jul 08-Jul 500 4.4 48 49 R+1
ND Rasmussen 10-Jul 11-Jul 400 5.0 36 51 R+15
PA WeAskAmerica 09-Jul 10-Jul 1227 2.8 47 40 O+7
VA PPP 05-Jul 08-Jul 647 3.9 50 42 O+8
WI Marquette 05-Jul 08-Jul 810 3.5 50.6 43.3 O+7.3
WI PPP 05-Jul 08-Jul 1057 3.3 50 44 O+6

California (+18%) and Maine (+14%) for Obama and North Dakota (+15%) for Romney are strongholds.

I probably shouldn’t be surprised any longer on how solid New Mexico is for Obama at +11%. The polling history backs the new poll up:
ObamaRomney13Jun12-13Jul12New Mexico

Weeks after the unsuccessful recall of their Republican Governor, Wisconsin seems to be holding for Obama. Both new polls have Obama’s lead just outside the margin of error:
ObamaRomney13Jun12-13Jul12Wisconsin

Romney goes up by +1 in this week’s Florida poll, but Obama still takes three of the four current polls for the state. Obama would be expected to win Florida right now with a 91% probability.

Obama and Romney split North Carolina this week at one poll apiece. In the past month of NC polls, Romney takes three and Obama takes two. The simulation analysis suggests that Romney would win the state (now) with a 59.5% probability.

Once again, a Pennsylvania poll puts Obama up. Obama has lead in both Pennsylvania polls taken over the past month. In fact, Obama has led in the past 14 consecutive PA polls—all the way back to early February.

Virginia gives Obama a +8% lead over Romney. But Romney lead by a smaller margin in a much bigger current poll. The two polls, taken together, have the race in a dead tie (Obama won 50,112 times, Romney, 49,888 times). It is difficult discern a solid trend. One could argue Obama maintains an advantage, and one can argue that Romney has turned the state around:

ObamaRomney13Jun12-13Jul12Virginia

So, what would happen if the presidential election was held today?

A Monte Carlo analysis of state head-to-head polls, using the rules of the Electoral College suggests that President Barack Obama would almost certainly beat Mitt Romney.

Now, Obama would receive a mean of 334 (+7) electoral votes to Romney’s 204 (-7). Of the 100,000 simulated elections, Obama won 99,976 times and Romney won 24 times.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

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This Time We’ve Solved Drugs

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 7/13/12, 8:04 am

The P-I reports on arrests in Pike-Pine. A Honduran gang apparently was bringing people here illegally to sell crack. Scary stuff, and I’m glad the police are on it. Still, these arrests don’t ever seem to do much to deter the next group of people selling on the street corner. I’m not sure what the solution is, but I’m quite certain it isn’t more of the same.

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Health Fair

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 7/12/12, 8:10 pm

It’s an absolute disgrace that we still need this sort of thing, but Seattle Center is hosting a health fair this Sunday. If you need any of the services below, you can avail yourself.

As a part of The Next Fifty’s Global Health Month, a Health Fair will be conducted on July 15th, 2012 at Key Arena. The Health Fair will focus on the health of our communities by providing free health services to the general public.

Services include:
Dental
Screenings for diabetes and cholesterol
Vision and hearing
Mammograms
Physicals
Educational programs about nutrition and general health,
Much much more!

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Romney’s precarious position

by Darryl — Thursday, 7/12/12, 2:08 pm

I’m going to be generous to Mitt Romney today. But first some context.

As his primary opponents predicted earlier this year, Mitt’s Bain Capitol record is coming back to bite him in the assets. The latest (which probably isn’t really the latest in the few minutes it takes me to write this post) comes from The Boston Globe:

Romney has said he left Bain in 1999 to lead the winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, ending his role in the company. But public Securities and Exchange Commission documents filed later by Bain Capital state he remained the firm’s “sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president.”

Also, a Massachusetts financial disclosure form Romney filed in 2003 states that he still owned 100 percent of Bain Capital in 2002. And Romney’s state financial disclosure forms indicate he earned at least $100,000 as a Bain “executive” in 2001 and 2002, separate from investment earnings.

The timing of Romney’s departure from Bain is a key point of contention because he has said his resignation in February 1999 meant he was not responsible for Bain Capital companies that went bankrupt or laid off workers after that date.

Here’s the generous part: Mitt’s account may be correct! It very well may be that he left Bain for Salt Lake City, and psychologically detached from Bain, leaving all of the management in the hands of his trusted partners.

I can imagine a departing speech, perhaps held on a yacht in Boston Harbor:

I’ve got an Olympic-sized corruption scandal and fiscal problems to deal with in SLC. So, I’m taking a leave. I’ll have nothing more to do with running Bain through the end of the Olympics. I leave it to you, my trusted friends, to maximize shareholder profits. (And as the only shareholder, I demand it! [forced laugh.]) If you make the shareholder fabulously wealthy, you will be generously rewarded when I move on to my post-Olympic project…. So for now, you have the helm.

(Exit stage right.)

And maybe Mitt lived up to this ideal. There is even some evidence consistent with this account. In some sense, then he shouldn’t be held accountable for decisions made during his leave. Right?

The political problem for Mitt is that, as Kevin Drum points out, the whole thing just looks icky. Denying responsibility for big decisions while at the same time being listed as “sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president” on multiple SEC filings, makes Mitt look like he is dodging responsibility.

It feels weaselly. Apparently…the buck doesn’t stop with Mitt. (It’s spirited away to a Swiss Bank Account.)

Furthermore, pulling down a salary (even a paltry $100,000) while on leave makes it seem like he was either actively doing something for the company, or skimming without justification.

Either one may be true without tying Mitt to actual decisions (or knowledge of) embarrassing investments and politically damaging layoffs. But, either way, it still looks bad, and people will have to be excused for feeling misled by Mitt.

But here is the deal. I think this Bain thing has left Mitt in a precarious position…and with a much bigger problem.

The problem is that any evidence of decision making at Bain during his leave will make a liar out of Mitt. The evidence so far is good for Mitt. And thousands and thousands of pages of additional documentation may well be released. But proof doesn’t come from negative evidence, so uncertainty will linger.

The flip side is that it will take but one memo, one recording of an invited speech, one email, a telephone recording, or maybe even a handful of disgruntled ex-employees with some personal notes (remember the Veterans who “served with” John Kerry?) to provide a solitary example of Mitt making a major decision for Bain during his leave…and Mitt’s credibility will be decimated.

And worst of all for Mitt, there is a huge incentive to be the first news organization to find it.

The race is on!

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Open Thread 7/12

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 7/12/12, 8:08 am

– The distinction between the nuns on a bus and the bishops making demands is quite telling.

– The wingnuts sure know their history.

– “There is a clear business case for supporting equal access to civil marriage rights,” said George Allen, the Chamber’s vice president for government relations.

– Men aren’t going extinct.

– The City of Seattle is supporting a court challenge to the federal Defense of Marriage Act.

– If, however, you insist on talking and writing things down, here’s a pro-tip: the terms “distraction” and “chronically ill and abused” don’t mix. Pretty much ever.

– Accused Burglar Incorporates Self

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Aaaawwwwwkwarrrrrrd

by Darryl — Wednesday, 7/11/12, 10:42 am

Queue the Red Cross telethon raising money for victims of recent wild fires. Mike Myers cringes as Kanye West breaks script and blurts out:

Black People don’t care for Mitt Romney.

That would pretty much summarize the response Mitt Romney got during his speech before the NAACP today:

(You can watch the whole awkward Romney speech here.)

Says CNN correspondent Jim Acosta:

I have to tell you… I’ve been covering the Romney campaign for a year now[….] I have not heard that kind of sustained booing for Mitt Romney during the course of this campaign. […] This was, perhaps, one of the most negative reactions Mitt Romney has had in the course of his 2012 presidential campaigns.

Here are some photos of the audience reaction.

Last night, the twittersphere was all a-tweet with the hash tag #ThingsRomneyShouldntSayToNAACP‬. You know, things like

Freedom of Teach ‏@FreedomofTeach
My wife drives a couple of Cadillacs, so we have that in common. ‪#ThingsRomneyShouldntSayToNAACP‬

Er. D.-OBAMA2012 ‏@esd2000
‪#ThingsRomneyShouldntSayToTheNAACP‬ I’m a big fan of the Basketball contests you guys all love.

Shrink’g Mdl Class ‏@alohaGOP
“I had a dream too – but mine came true, obviously.” ‪#fakelaugh‬ ‪#ThingsRomneyShouldntSayToNAACP‬

Who knew the ‪#OneThingRomneyReallyShouldntHaveSaid‬ is written into his day-to-day stump speech.

(BTW: You can follow my twitter feed here.)

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Recent HA Brilliance…

  • Wednesday Open Thread Wednesday, 5/21/25
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  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 5/16/25
  • Friday! Friday, 5/16/25
  • Wednesday! Wednesday, 5/14/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 5/13/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 5/12/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 5/9/25
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