Drinking Liberally — Seattle
Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. Believe it our not, this will be the first week of the 2012 presidential General Election. That’s worth discussing. Oh…and the Democratic Convention is now underway.
We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.
Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter meets. And the Spokane chapter and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meet this Thursday.
With 236 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.
Open Thread 9/4
– Desmond Tutu says Bush and Blair should be tried for war crimes.
– The terrible thing is that he’s right.
– Sure, Paul Ryan’s marathon time should be the lie that proves he’s a liar.
– What to do with the missing link if there’s still an EIS to do?
Poll Analysis: Romney slips a bit
Obama | Romney |
97.2% probability of winning | 2.8% probability of winning |
Mean of 305 electoral votes | Mean of 233 electoral votes |
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 302 to 236 electoral votes. If the election was held then, Obama would be expected to win with a 96.9% probability, and Romney with a 3.1% probability.
Only seven new polls covering five states have been released since then. But, on the heels of the Republican convention and the start of the Democratic convention, this seems like a good place to take stock of the race. First, the new polls:
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
FL | PPP | 31-Aug | 02-Sep | 1548 | 2.5 | 48 | 47 | O+1 |
MI | EPIC/MRA | 28-Aug | 28-Aug | 1200 | 2.6 | 49 | 46 | O+3 |
MO | PPP | 28-Aug | 29-Aug | 621 | 3.9 | 41 | 53 | R+12 |
NC | PPP | 31-Aug | 02-Sep | 1012 | 3.1 | 48 | 48 | tie |
NC | SurveyUSA | 26-Aug | 30-Aug | 543 | 4.3 | 43 | 46 | R+3 |
NC | Elon U | 25-Aug | 30-Aug | 1089 | 3.0 | 43 | 47 | R+4 |
WV | R.L. Repass | 22-Aug | 25-Aug | 401 | 4.9 | 38 | 52 | R+14 |
Close as ever, the new Florida poll has Obama leading Romney by +1%. This poll has been taken as evidence for a lack of a strong convention (or Ryan) bump. But, who knows in Florida, the next poll may go strongly for Romney.
Michigan puts Obama over Romney by a rather weak +3%. The longer term trend suggests a much tighter race than earlier in the year. But Obama still seems to have the advantage:
A surprise poll comes out of Missouri, where Romney leads Obama by +12%. This double digit lead is a wider gap than we have seen recently. But the real surprise is the increasing variability seen among pollsters. Just two polls ago, Rasmussen found Obama leading Romney by +1%:
Three North Carolina polls mostly favor Romney. The two tie in the most recent poll. The two other polls give Romney a +3% and +4% advantage. With six “current” polls in the state, the weight of evidence is that Romney would win the state (now) with a 69% probability:
In West Virginia, Romney leads Obama by a +14%. Believe it or not, this race has tightened up since the last couple of polls.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 97,197 times and Romney wins 2,803 times (including the 330 ties). Obama receives (on average) 305 (+3) to Romney’s 233 (-3) electoral votes. Obama has a 97.2% (+0.3%) probability of winning and Romney has a 2.8% (-0.3%) probability of winning an election held now. The difference from the previous analysis is really too small to “make” anything over.
Now, let’s consider the longer term trends in this race. I’ve done as series of Monte Carlo analyses, conducted every seven days using all the polls from the last year. For each simulation, I follow the same rules of including only polls from the past month (and the most recent poll before then if there are none) (FAQ). The following graph shows how the election is “scored” over time. The middle (magenta) line is the median number of electoral votes for Obama. When that line dips below the dashed line, Romney wins. Above it, Obama wins.
The pair of tan lines show the interval of electoral college totals within which 75% of the results for Obama were found. And the outer green lines show the interval of electoral college totals within which 95% of the results for Obama were found.
Romney was at his best in the 4th quarter of 2011. Even then, his probability of winning the election was never greater than about 30%. Beginning in late January, Romney slipped into zero percent territory, and has been there until recently. He has now recovered to same place he was in late January.
The general election has just started, so we are at a point with much potential for big change in the standings. In 2008, we saw McCain begin to do, only to have Obama run away with it in the end.
Labor Day open thread
Why Unions matter more than ever.
Roy ZImmerman: The Problem With Democrats:
Bill Maher’s New Rule: GOP must admit George W. Bush exists .
The making of Labor Day.
The redevelopment of Yesler Terrace.
Chair Talk:
- The Million Dollar Chair.
- Jon celebrates Clint Eastwood’s ‘Fistful Of Awesome’ speech
- The old man from Gran Torino crashes the RNC.
- Bill Maher defends Clint Eastwood.
- Clint Eastwood’s Comedy Central Chair Roast.
Bashir: Is Paul Ryan the fastest ‘Kenyan’ candidate ever???
Bird’s Eye View Contest
Last week’s contest was won by milwhcky. It was the home of the Sikh Temple shooter in Cudahy, WI.
This week’s contest is a random location somewhere on earth, good luck!
HA Mormon Study
[HA Bible Study is on hiatus through the November election as we honor Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by studying the scriptures of his Mormon religion.]
Book of Mormon, Ether 11:14
And it came to pass that Ethem did execute judgment in wickedness all his days; and he begat Moron. And it came to pass that Moron did reign in his stead; and Moron did that which was wicked before the Lord.
Discuss.
It could be so much worse
I’m fortunate.
When I was laid off from my job last month, I was eligible for continuation of my health insurance. I have enough money saved up that I can pick up the large portion of the premiums that used to be contributed by my employer. I was persistent enough, and knowledgeable enough, to navigate through the shoals of bureaucracy that lay between employer-based and formerly-employed insured status.
It was frustrating for several weeks. For instance, I wasn’t allowed to apply for continuation coverage while still insured. Then I couldn’t write a check for the first month of coverage until my application for continuation coverage was received, processed, and accepted. It took over a week after my check was deposited before my status was updated from no coverage to insured. Even after that change was acknowledged, it required a call to the PBM (pharmacy benefit manager), a business separate from the insurer, to update my prescription insurance.
When it all settled out, the insurance was reinstated retroactively to the first day of the month. But I still had to make sure that the claims rejected while I was in limbo were resubmitted (I haven’t yet contacted the lab that drew and tested a blood sample). Every one of those steps wastes money—customer service operators who could have helped someone else, clerks who had to open, photocopy, and file my applications, eligibility assessors who had to process my paperwork, personnel at my providers who had to send my claims to the insurer for a second time, computers that had to rerun those claims. It was only a little bit of money each time, but of course those infinitesimal amounts add up to big bucks when multiplied by thousands or millions of incidents. At least I get my EOBs electronically, so I didn’t kill many trees by generating all those papers twice.
My office visits and lab tests hadn’t made it through the providers’ billing systems by the time I became retroactively covered, so they had no visible impact on my wallet. Because the office personnel don’t know the alleged prices of their services, they probably couldn’t require up-front payment anyway. Not so when it comes to prescriptions … I had to pay the full retail price before I could get my medications. Once covered, I went back to the drugstore to have my credit card reimbursed for the cash I’d laid out.
As it happens, I take six “maintenance medicines”, prescriptions that I refill every month. All six are generics, costing appreciably less than the brand name versions of those medications. Even so, the full retail price of a month’s-worth of my meds was rather hefty — $445.74 (brand names would have run $864.67). After my coverage was restored retroactively, I went back to Bartell so that they could resubmit the prescriptions to my insurance. After applying the (appreciably lower) price negotiated by the insurer, and after accounting for the portion of that price paid by the insurer, my out of pocket cost for those six prescriptions came to just $11.98. I have very good insurance.
Similarly, were I not insured, the price of an office visit would be $219.00. My insurer had negotiated an allowed amount of $83.01 for that sort of visit, only about 38% of the alleged retail price. And my out of pocket portion of the insurer-negotiated price comes to a mere $12.45. To reiterate, I have very good insurance.
I knew it would work out as it did. And I had the resources to ease the difficulties of the bureaucratic delays. But suppose I didn’t have a credit card. Suppose I lived from paycheck to paycheck, with only a debit card and a meager bank account. Then, I would have had a problem. Then, I might have been required to choose between maintaining my health and buying groceries, or maybe even between medicines and rent. Forced into such a dilemma, filling prescriptions would undoubtedly fall behind food and shelter.
Being unemployed and uninsured, then, is a double triple-whammy:
- You have much less money coming into your bank account
- The bill for healthcare services is much larger than what an insurer can negotiate with the provider
- You bear responsibility for paying the entire bill
I could go on. I could mention the uncertainties faced by providers; because of the myriad insurers with myriad rules and myriad methods of bill submission, they never know how much they’ll actually receive in reimbursement for their services (and they must hire additional staff to handle all those procedures). I could argue for something like Medicare for all, or for a sensible healthcare system like those in civilized nations (there are many models to choose from, all of which are better and less costly than ours).
Instead, I’ll just thank my lucky stars that my layoff isn’t the kind of financial and health disaster that it could be if I didn’t have resources. And I’ll pay my insurance premiums every month.
[Cross-posted from Peace Tree Farm]
Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Aloha, Hawaii!:
The debate between Inslee and McKenna.
Who is Paul Ryan?
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, South Carolina edition:
Pap: GOP bound to fail.
Thom and Pap: Obama endorses Constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United.
Liberal Viewer: The most negative campaign ever?
Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
White House: West Wing Week.
The G.O.P. Multimedia Extravaganza!
- Young Turks: Mitt on Abortion.
- The Worst jokes from the convention (via Political Wire).
- Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: RNC 2012—Romney for President?
- Mitt: “Say”.
- Young Turks: Tim Pawlenty’s jokes at the Republican Convention.
- Clint Eastwood offers a rambling and surreal bit of “performance art” at the convention.
- Raw Story interviews Clint Eastwood’s chair
- Jonathan Mann: Clint Eastwood Talking To A Chair:
- SlateTV: Eastwooding
- Young Turks: Clint Eastwood and the invisible Obama.
- Ann Telnaes: Romney talks to his chair.
- Maddow: Eastwood’s terribly timed RNC meltdown
- Sam Seder: Clint Eastwood, Mitt Romney & the RNC in a nutshell
- Comedian John Fugelsang reacts to Clint Eastwood
- Sam Seder and friends on Fact checking Paul Ryan’s RNC Speech (hint: full of lies!).
- Thom: It’s all another Republican con job.
- Young Turks: Mitt’s acceptance speech.
- Young Turks: The Ryan acceptance speech.
- Sam Seder: Ann Romney’s RNC Speech (or Tell Us How You REALLY Feel!).
- Thom: How the MSM helps the GOP Big Lie.
- Mark Fiore: The Love Me Mitt doll!
- Thom: GOP’s nightmarish response to MLK’s “I Have a Dream”.
- Mitt’s convention: Not going as planned.
- Jon would settle for ANY truth in Ryan’s speech
- Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: RNC 2012, elephants and a Newt!
- Jonathan Mann: Your Monster’s Come To Life
- Sharpton: The history of Mitt Romney’s flips and flops
- Young Turks: Buying Mitt Romney…The real Convention Is at Cracker Bay.
- Sam Seder: RNC attendees throw peanuts at African American CNN camera operator. “This is how we feed the animals”.
- Mitt accidentally calls the United States a “company”
- Thom: Can Romney flip-flop from being wealthy and out of touch?
- Young Turks: Paul Ryan blames Obama for S&P downgrade?!?
- Sam Seder: Jan Brewer endorses Obama at RNC?
- Mitt Romney: You didn’t build it…you DESTROYED it!
Clint on Obama:
Roy Zimmerman: Mitt’s America the Beatiful:
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Maddow: Court strikes down Ohio early voter restrictions.
The Democratic plan for gun control.
Veterans who support Obama.
Liberal Viewer: Colbert in the tank for Obama?
Ann Telnaes: Republican VP candidates, past and present.
Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, The Idaho verse.
Romney’s plan to “strengthen” the middle class.
Young Turks: The Michelle Obama slave mag cover.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
The Reason for the Season
Labor Day weekend is here once again. And while we can all enjoy the barbeques, the sales, and Bumbershoot, it’s important to remember what this season is all about.
That’s right it’s LABOR Day. So when co-workers, shop clerks, and bank tellers tell me to “have a good weekend” or a “good long weekend” without mentioning labor, I let them know what’s up. When that well intentioned acquaintance wishes me the wrong words, I have no choice to tell them: “It’s Labor day. Labor. Labor. Don’t you celebrate LABOR DAY?”
You see, there’s a war on Labor Day in this country, and make no mistake about it, we are a laboring country. This country was founded by people who labored, and if it was good enough for them, it’s good enough for the rest of us. And you know, most Americans still labor today. The silent majority shouldn’t take it any longer. We need to boldly proclaim LABOR day.
Why They Want to Suppress the Elderly Vote
Before the Republican convention, I’d have said that the GOP ID card requirements to vote in various states were mostly going after minorities and the poor. And that the suppression of the elderly that goes along with it is a side effect against a group of people who generally vote for them: Suppress more black votes than elderly votes, and you still get a more Republican electorate.
But after hearing Clint Eastwood’s speech* I think they want to suppress them because the elderly people they’re around have lost it. Now, don’t get me wrong, Clint Eastwood has had a fantastic career as an actor and a director. And I think he deserves the right vote.
But if you’re a Republican, and all of the old people around you are yelling at “Obama” in an empty chair, well, at a certain point, you don’t want them voting either. I see it now. My advice would be to spend time with a wider array of the elderly.
* And for serious, I just listened to it on the radio, so I didn’t realize he was talking to an empty chair. I’m not sure if that makes it worse or better, but at least it fills in some gaps.
Romney Convention Speech Thread
7:30: I’m listening to it on NPR, but you can watch it here too.
7:36: He accepts the nomination for president. Phew.
7:37: If you say you’re humble, you aren’t.
7:38: First wrong thing: Janesville is not a small town. He’s making references to Ryan’s speech that I didn’t see. Whatever.
7:40: If you have to say you’re being positive, you’re probably not being positive.
7:41: He says nobody who came here doubted they would do better. Um, remember when your family fled the country because as you said “religious persecution“?
7:43: He’s listing all the problems after Obama got into office, not noting that the economy went to shit before Obama got there.
7:44: He says “I wish President Obama had succeeded” but maybe he should have urged his party to work with the president when they said defeating him was their top priority.
7:45: By the way, wasn’t Clint Eastwood awful? Was he drunk?
7:45: God Bless Neil Armstrong. I agree.
7:46: “When the world needs you to do really big stuff, you need an American.” Diplomacy will be fun under him.
7:48: Parents are more important than government. Um, sure, but we can have both.
7:50: Mitt Romney likes his parents. OK.
7:50: He thinks he made it on his own because he wasn’t in Michigan. Um, no.
7:52: Anne’s “job was a lot harder and more important than mine.” All right. Maybe make a little less money and spend more time having helped with her job.
7:52: God God God God Family Community God. God.
7:55: “Jobs to (Obama) are about government.” What?
7:58: He’s waxing poetic about commerce. Says we should encourage taking risks, but doesn’t say how maybe a safety net would get people more willing to take risks.
8:00: Romney says Obama can’t say you’re better off than when he took office. Um, the economy was in free fall when Obama took office. We are doing better. There’s still a long way to go, but yes, things are better.
8:01: “What America needs are jobs, lots of jobs.” Well, we need good jobs.
8:03: He says the military creates jobs. Those ARE GOVERNMENT JOBS.
8:06: “I have a plan to create 12 Million new jobs.”
– Drill the shit out of everything
– Education
– Make trade work. When nations cheat, there will be consequences. Yet, he doesn’t say how he’s going to do that.
– Cut the deficit. That isn’t a plan (also, it won’t work).
– Champion small businesses. Says he’ll repeal and replace Obama care, but doesn’t say with what.
8:07: We need a president who will respect women. Then by the time I finish typing that sentence, he attacks women’s ability to control their own bodies.
8:08: Now he’s making fun of the fact that Obama thinks global warming is a thing (will help turn back the rise of the oceans). I guess that whole global warming thing is no longer operative.
8:09: He’s lied about the apology tour, so naturally the crowd is chanting USA!
8:11: Now he says we need 23 Million more jobs. But he just said his plan is only half that.
8:12: Is he cribbing Obama’s 2004 convention speech? I mean I know there were a lot of cliches in that, but it really sounds like a poor man’s version of it.
8:13: We’re done.
Open Thread 8/30
– There was a debate last night between Jay Inslee and Rob McKenna.
– Fuck all of these hurdles to the Burke-Gillman Trail missing link. It might make it harder to get to 0 road fatalities.
– Seattle parks’ computer labs will be open during the rest of the library closure.
– Scab refs will be trouble.
– Park(ing) Day is coming up.
Poll Analysis: Even more Ryan bump
Obama | Romney |
96.9% probability of winning | 3.1% probability of winning |
Mean of 302 electoral votes | Mean of 236 electoral votes |
The previous analysis showed G.O.P. presidential candidate Mitt Romney edging up to almost a 1% probability of winning an election held now. Romney lagged in expected electoral votes to President Barack Obama by 230 to 308.
Since then, 15 new polls covering 12 states have been released.
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
CO | Keating | 21-Aug | 22-Aug | 500 | 4.4 | 48 | 44 | O+4 |
CT | Quinnipiac | 22-Aug | 26-Aug | 1472 | 2.6 | 52 | 45 | O+7 |
CT | PPP | 22-Aug | 23-Aug | 881 | — | 53 | 40 | O+13 |
FL | CNN/TIME | 22-Aug | 26-Aug | 895 | 3.5 | 50 | 46 | O+4 |
IA | PPP | 23-Aug | 26-Aug | 1244 | 2.8 | 47 | 45 | O+2 |
MI | Mitchell | 23-Aug | 23-Aug | 1277 | 2.7 | 46.6 | 46.7 | R+0.1 |
MO | Mason-Dixon | 22-Aug | 23-Aug | 625 | 4.0 | 43 | 50 | R+7 |
MO | Rasmussen | 22-Aug | 22-Aug | 500 | 4.5 | 47 | 46 | O+1 |
NV | PPP | 23-Aug | 26-Aug | 831 | 3.4 | 50 | 47 | O+3 |
NJ | Eagleton-Rutgers | 23-Aug | 25-Aug | 710 | 3.5 | 51 | 37 | O+14 |
NC | CNN/Time | 22-Aug | 26-Aug | 766 | 3.5 | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
NC | SurveyUSA | 18-Aug | 23-Aug | 540 | 4.3 | 43 | 43 | tie |
OH | Columbus Dispatch | 15-Aug | 25-Aug | 1758 | 2.1 | 45 | 45 | tie |
PA | Philadelphia Inquirer | 21-Aug | 23-Aug | 601 | 4.0 | 51 | 42 | O+9 |
VA | Rasmussen | 23-Aug | 23-Aug | 500 | 4.5 | 47 | 47 | tie |
Obama takes the latest Colorado poll by +4% over Romney, and he leads in four of the five current polls for the state.
Two polls in Connecticut both go to Obama. The Quinnipiac poll has Obama up by a modest +7%. A slightly older PPP poll has Obama up by +13%.
The latest Florida poll has Obama leading Romney by +4%. The current Florida polls go 4 to 2 for Romney, and Romney is given a 97% chance of winning the state right now.
Obama is up by +2% in the new Iowa poll. The candidates split the two current polls, but the poll that has Obama up is the much larger of the two:
In Michigan, Romney leads Obama by a weak +0.1%. The candidates split the four current polls, but the weight of the evidence has Obama up slightly with a 57% probability of winning an election held now.
The candidates split the two Missouri polls, with Romney up by +7% in one and Obama up by +1% in another. Obama has only led in this one poll out of the 6 current Missouri polls:
Nevada has Obama up by a slender +3% over Romney, slightly beating the +2% he had in the other current poll:
Little surprise that New Jersey has Obama up by a double-digit lead (+14%) over Romney.
In North Carolina, Romney has a +1% lead over Obama in one poll and the candidates are tied in another. The weight of evidence in the five current polls has Romney up by the slightest margin and a 56% probability of taking the state in an election held now:
Ohio is a tie at 45% each in the new poll. But Obama has led in three of the current six polls (with two ties), so the weight of evidence gives him an 87% probability of taking the state right now:
Another Pennsylvania poll gives Obama a +9% lead over Romney. Obama take all three of the current polls and would be expected to win an election now with a 99% probability.
Virginia is all tied up at 47% in the newest poll. Overall, Obama takes 4 of the six current polls, so he ends up with a 90% probability of winning an election held now.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 96,863 times and Romney wins 3,137 times (including the 449 ties). Obama receives (on average) 302 (-6) to Romney’s 236 (+6) electoral votes. In an election held now, we would expect Obama to win with a 96.9% (-2.3%) probability and Romney with a 3.1% (+2.3%) probability.
Conventional Wisdom
I know, I know. Everyone will tell you nothing of note happens at the conventions. They’re theater and the most newsworthy thing that happened, aside from the weather, is a few supporters of one person yelled things during the vote and someone did something that might be racist.
And so we’re left with the speeches, the videos, and the rest of the theater. But, you know what: the theater is important. The speeches are important. The parties, and especially the presidential candidates, set the tone of the rest of their campaigns at the convention. They lock themselves into policies. They showcase rising stars. They get people paying attention.
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