HorsesAss.Org

  • Home
  • About HA
  • Advertise
  • Archives
  • Donate

Poll Analysis: The post-convention story

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/13/12, 10:13 pm


Obama Romney
97.9% probability of winning 2.1% probability of winning
Mean of 306 electoral votes Mean of 232 electoral votes

Now that both conventions have come and gone and the post-convention polls are coming out, it’s a good time to assess the “score” in the 2012 Presidential Election.

My previous Monte Carlo analysis of the race was posted ten days ago (between the two conventions) and showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by a mean of 305 to 233 electoral votes. An election held then would be expected to end in Obama’s favor with a 97.2% probability. Romney had a 2.8% probability of winning.

Thirty two new state head-to-head polls covering 18 states have been released since then:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ PPP 07-Sep 09-Sep 993 3.1 44 53 R+9
CA SurveyUSA 09-Sep 11-Sep 524 4.3 57.4 34.9 O+22.5
CO Keating 10-Sep 11-Sep 503 4.4 49 44 O+5
CO PPP 31-Aug 02-Sep 1001 3.1 49 46 O+3
FL Rasmussen 12-Sep 12-Sep 500 4.5 48 46 O+2
FL Marist 09-Sep 11-Sep 980 3.1 49 44 O+5
FL Mclaughlin & Assoc 09-Sep 10-Sep 600 4.0 47 50 R+3
FL SurveyUSA 07-Sep 09-Sep 596 4.1 48.2 44.5 O+3.7
FL Gravis Marketing 02-Sep 02-Sep 1288 2.7 46.7 48.0 R+1.3
IL WeAskAmerica 05-Sep 05-Sep 1382 2.8 54 37 O+17
MI EPIC/MRA 08-Sep 11-Sep 600 4.5 47 37 O+10
MI PPP 31-Aug 02-Sep 1001 3.4 51 44 O+7
MN PPP 10-Sep 11-Sep 824 3.4 51 44 O+7
MN SurveyUSA 06-Sep 09-Sep 551 4.3 49.6 40.4 O+9.3
MO Rasmussen 11-Sep 11-Sep 500 4.5 45 48 R+3
MT PPP 10-Sep 11-Sep 656 3.8 45 50 R+5
NH U NH 04-Sep 10-Sep 592 4.0 45 40 O+5
NJ Quinnipiac 27-Aug 02-Sep 1471 2.6 51 44 O+7
NM PPP 07-Sep 09-Sep 1122 2.9 53 42 O+11
NM Research & Polling 03-Sep 06-Sep 667 3.8 45 40 O+5
NY Quinnipiac 04-Sep 09-Sep 1486 2.5 62 34 O+28
NC PPP 07-Sep 09-Sep 1087 3.0 49 48 O+1
NC SurveyUSA 04-Sep 06-Sep 500 4.5 43 53 R+10
OH Rasmussen 12-Sep 12-Sep 500 4.5 47 46 O+1
OH PPP 07-Sep 09-Sep 1072 3.0 50 45 O+5
OH Gravis Marketing 07-Sep 08-Sep 1548 2.7 47.3 43.2 O+4.1
OH Gravis Marketing 02-Sep 02-Sep 1381 2.9 43.7 46.8 R+3.1
TX WPA 09-Sep 11-Sep 1000 3.1 40 55 R+15
VA Marist 09-Sep 11-Sep 996 3.1 49 44 O+5
VA Gravis Marketing 08-Sep 09-Sep 2238 2.2 44.0 49.4 R+5.4
WA PPP 07-Sep 09-Sep 563 — 53 42 O+11
WA SurveyUSA 07-Sep 09-Sep 524 4.4 54.4 37.6 O+16.8

I’ll only discuss a few states.

In Colorado, Obama takes both new polls, but by modest margins. Colorado seems to have settled for Obama by a small margin:
ObamaRomney13Aug12-13Sep12Colorado

Five new polls from Florida ought to be enough to tell us who’s ahead. But, no: Obama takes three and Romney takes two. This gives us a total of 12 “current polls” (i.e. those taken in the past month), and in aggregate, Romney comes up with an advantage. In an election now, Romney would take Florida with about an 80% probability.

Obama takes both new Michigan polls by fairly nice margins. There are a total of seven “current polls” for the state—all but two go to Obama—and Obama won 94% of the simulated elections in the state.

Obama seems to have Minnesota pretty well locked up, with the new polls.

The new Missouri poll give Romney a small +3% lead over Obama. We have four other “current” Missouri polls from August. Romney takes all but one. Unless there is some kind of post convention second thoughts coming from the state’s voters, Romney looks likely to win the state.

Romney takes the latest Montana poll by just +5%. The previous poll, from mid-August had Romney up by +17%.

Obama turns in a weak +5% performance In New Hampshire, suggesting he only has an 81% chance of taking the state now.

In New Mexico, Obama is as strong as anywhere. The two new poll have him at +11% and +5%. The older current poll from mid-August is a +14%.

Two new North Carolina polls offer dissimilar pictures. The PPP poll offers Obama a +1% edge over Romney, but the Survey USA poll done for the Civitas Institute (a very right-wing state “think tank”) has Romney up by +10%. The Survey USA poll was taken during the convention and the PPP poll was taken after, so one could argue that there is a post-convention bounce for Obama. But the evidence to support that is vanishingly thin. The polling for the past month gives one poll to Obama, two ties, and four to Romney. Overall, the evidence still supports a good Romney advantage in the state. Here is all the polling in a nicepicture:

ObamaRomney13Aug12-13Sep12North Carolina

Four new Ohio polls split three to one for Obama. The three Obama polls are all post-convention. Romney’s poll is pre-convention. The nine polls taken over the past month go five for Obama, two for Romney and two ties. The evidence gives Obama a slightly stronger advantage in Ohio than Romney has in North Carolina.

The Virginia split, giving Obama a +5% in one and Romney a +5.4% in an even larger poll. The other three current polls go one for Obama, one for Romney and one tie. The state is still really, really, close, although Romney wins about 68% of the simulated elections.

Two Washington polls offer no surprises: Obama dominates with a double-digit lead. End of story.

With all those new polls, a Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated elections, gives Obama 97,854 wins and Romney 2,146 wins (including the 239 ties). Obama receives (on average) 306 (+1) to Romney’s 232 (-1) electoral votes. These results suggest that, for an election held now, Obama would have a 97.9% (+0.5%) probability of winning and Romney, a 2.1% (-0.5%) probability of winning.

In other words, little has changed in the past ten days. Obama still maintains a solid lead in the electoral college vote. It is interesting to note that the popular vote (as assessed by national polls) seems to be swinging in Obama’s direction now as well.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 13 Sep 2011 to 13 Sep 2012, and including a one month polling window (FAQ).

Compared to 2008, this is not a very dynamic race.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Safe Routes to School

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 9/13/12, 7:05 pm

I was not aware of the Washington Safe Routes to School program before today.

Washington’s Safe Routes to School program provides technical assistance and resources to cities, counties, schools, school districts and state agencies for improvements that get more children walking and bicycling to school safely, reduce congestion around schools, and improve air quality.

But as these things go far too often, I’m only hearing about this worthwhile program as it faces going away. Transportation for Washington are trying to save it, and they have a letter you can send to Governor Gregoire.

Right now, Governor Gregoire has a choice. She can slash funding that gives tens of thousands of children the opportunity to walk and bike to school. Or she can keep funding the state’s Safe Routes to School program that improves our children’s safety and health. The Governor must make her decision by October 1.

Yes, I know: there are so many great, so many worthy programs out there. And they’re all in trouble in the current economic climate, and bullshit way we raise revenue in this state slower than economic growth. But, this is a worthy program, and I think it deserves the fight too.

My advice, as always, when an activist group has a form letter is to make it your own. Especially the first line or two, because the intern or staffer who is getting a bunch of these has already read the letter as a form letter, and the more you just copy and paste, the less they’re inclined to read it again.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Open Thread 9/13

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 9/13/12, 8:30 am

– Mitt Romney is a despicable person.

– And some of his supporters are even more out of touch than he is.

– I, for one, welcome our new rodent overloads.

– You take an anti-choice vote, you get opposition from NARAL. Not sure why anyone would be surprised by that.

– Drug Dealers (Not Just Users) Are Testing Their Cocaine for Levamisole

– I know Bible Study is the way HA generally deals with taking a verse out of context. But Fred Clark does a great job addressing the anti-gay clobber verses in these two posts.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Poll Analysis: Inslee leads McKenna 49% to 44%

by Darryl — Wednesday, 9/12/12, 2:53 pm

Yesterday a new Survey USA poll (for KING 5) was released in the Washington state gubernatorial race. The poll of 524 likely voters (4.4 MOE), based on a mixed land line and cell phone sample, was taken from the 7th to the 9th of this month.

The poll shows Inslee leading McKenna by 49% to 44%.

A Monte Carlo analysis using a million simulated elections based on this polling finds that, if the election was today, Inslee would have an 80% probability of winning. Here is the distribution of simulated outcomes:

SurveyUSA-Sep

This is pretty good news for Jay Inslee and suggests that his campaign has “turned it around.” McKenna led Inslee for most of the polling before July, but Inslee has now led in three consecutive polls:

GenericCongress12Aug12-12Sep12Washington

The previous poll, taken last month by Survey USA, had Inslee up by +3% points, and a 70% probability of winning then. We’ve had a primary since then. It is always risky to read too much into our top two primary results simply because the voting populations are different. Even so, the gubernatorial primary was practically a head-to-head election between McKenna and Inslee. Inslee received a +4% larger share of the votes than McKenna got.

There is one thing that stands out in the crosstabs. To the question, “Which candidate do you think is more likeable personally?” Inslee bests McKenna by 43% to 30%.

This race has been considered one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the country. Maybe not so much anymore.

There are three other head-to-head races in the poll:

  • Senate race: Cantwell (D) leads Baumgartner (R), 54% to 38%.
  • Attorney General race: Fergusson (D) leads Dunn (R), 42% to 33%.
  • Presidential race: Obama (D) leads Romney (R), 54% to 38%.

And, finally, there were a few other ballot measures polled as well:

  • The referendum upholding the new gay marriage law looks passable at 56% in favor to 38% against.
  • The initiative for charter schools looks like a go at 52% for and 26% against.
  • Eyman’s initiative that imposes a (likely) unconstitutional 2/3s majority for tax increases looks like a pass at 58% for to 21% against.
  • The pot initiative looks like a go at 57% in favor and 34% against.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

People For Puget Sound

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 9/12/12, 7:56 am

It seems like for as long as I can remember, People For Puget Sound have been a part of the environmental community. Putting pressure and getting things done for the good. So it’ll be sad to see them go.

Despite these achievements, People For Puget Sound is at a crucial juncture. Recent and current economic realities have constrained our ability to raise necessary funds to keep the organization moving forward independently. In light of these difficult economic circumstances and the urgent need to continue our work, the board of directors has determined that the best course of action in service to our mission is to transition our programs to other organizations that embrace our commitment to Puget Sound. We are pleased to share that we are in the process of negotiating with two well-respected organizations that will enable our work to continue into the future.

We are planning to add our policy expertise, grassroots strength, advocacy, and education know-how to expand Washington Environmental Council’s work to protect Puget Sound. We are also in discussions about transitioning our restoration projects to EarthCorps, a long-term People For Puget Sound partner, which would enable them to expand their portfolio of projects in Puget Sound. Both of these venerable organizations are passionate about stopping the flow of polluted runoff into the Sound, restoring critical habitat, protecting shorelines, and preserving Puget Sound for generations to come. We are confident that they will be able to efficiently and effectively carry our mission forward.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Drinking Liberally—Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/11/12, 3:50 pm

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.


Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters meet, and Thursday night Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.

With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Open Thread 9/11

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 9/11/12, 7:57 am

– Remember how Bush kept us safe.

– The City Council will support the SoDo arena.

– The second picture has been linked to by both conservatives and liberals I know as proof of something, something Joe Biden.

– Romney IV

– Street harassment is not a rare or isolated occurrence. It does not only happen in America. It does not only happen to young or traditionally-considered-“beautiful” women. It does not only happen on public transit or in low income areas.

– It’ll surely be in the next poll analysis, but Obama is up by 16 in Washington.

– As conservatives have told us, money compels millionaires to work but prevents poor people from working; amazing how that works.

– As I said at the outset of the GOP convention, I think the conventions are still worthwhile. But there’s still room for improvement in the coverage.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Pathetic

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 9/10/12, 7:22 pm

Rob Mckenna’s campaign was asked about why they exclude The Stranger (and God Bless the reporter who asked it). It seems the fact that Dan Savage gave Jay Inslee’s campaign money and the fact Goldy is technically in charge of a PAC that hasn’t done anything in several years, that the whole paper should be considered biased against them.

Maybe. But if you’re a human, it’s impossible not to be biased. So one of The Stranger’s reporters wears, or several years ago wore, that on his sleeve. If he’s not fair on those calls or press conferences, well the rest of the media there will see that.

And look, I’m not sure how much news actually gets generated at press conferences and phone ins to the campaign staff, really. I mean this is the first time in a while I can remember something from one of these making the news.

Further, McKenna can run his campaign however he wants. It’s not his official office. But if he wants to run it like a whiny, pathetic baby, well, people are going to notice.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Open Thread 9/10

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 9/10/12, 7:55 am

– It’s going to be a long season if the Seahawks can’t even win with a free timeout from the scab refs.

– It’s Time to Freak Out About Climate Change

– The Battle Cry of Freedom is a Republican song, but maybe it’s time for the Democrats to appropriate it.

– I wouldn’t say it’s time for a new party, but Democrats should embrace their urban ideals.

– A call for help putting up flags at the West Seattle Junction.

– I saw Samsara at Cinerama over the weekend, and it was quite spectacular.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 9/9/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was won by wes.in.wa. It was Coeur d’Alene, ID.

This week’s is related to a TV show or a movie, good luck!

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

HA Mormon Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 9/9/12, 7:00 am

[HA Bible Study is on hiatus through the November election as we honor Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by studying the scriptures of his Mormon religion.]

Pearl of Great Price, Abraham 3:9
And thus there shall be the reckoning of the time of one planet above another, until thou come nigh unto Kolob, which Kolob is after the reckoning of the Lord’s time; which Kolob is set nigh unto the throne of God, to govern all those planets which belong to the same order as that upon which thou standest.

Discuss.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 9/7/12, 11:57 pm

White House: West Wing Week.

Roy Zimmerman: Citizens United:

Thom: Are Americans better off than 30 years ago when the the Reaganomics experiment started?

The Democratic National Convention:

  • SlateTV: Clinton brings it home for Obama.
  • Young Turks: Analysis of Pres. Clinton’s speech
  • Fallon: Clinton Speaks:
  • Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Clinton and the Crazies
  • Jon: Clinton had more stats than RNC did in entire week (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Young Turks: Analysis of Michelle Obama’s speech
  • Cory Booker’s DNC Speech
  • Stephen: Democrats’ “God gaffe.”
  • The Coultergiest tries to outdo Rush on Sandra Fluke.
  • Thom and Pap on GOP trying to make Obama fail.
  • Young Turks: Looking at Obama’s speech.
  • Sam Seder chats with Obamabot Andy Kindler on his thoughts on Barack Obama’s DNC speech!.
  • Maddow: Presidential campaign may hinge on VA candidate.
  • John Lewis Crooks and Liars).
  • Young Turks: Sen. Kerry has best line of the DNC.
  • Ann Telnaes: The ups and downs of Bill Clinton.
  • Jenn breaks down D v. R’s us v. me.
  • Deval Patrick slams Mitt Romney.
  • Maddow: Rocky Balboa secret Romney advisor?
  • Young Turks: Analysis of Biden’s speech
  • James Taylor performs at DNC (after empty chair joke):
  • Gov. Granholm’s DNC Address.
  • Young Turks: Analysis of Jenn Granholm’s

Indicision’s attack ad against FOX News.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Rob McKenna’s supersleuths uncover a secret video of Jay Inslee bulldozing. Oh…that smarts!

Willard!

  • Mark Fiore: The Love-Me-Mitt doll
  • Sam Seder: Clint beats Mitt.
  • Romney and Rep. Steve King: Partners in extremism.

Ann Telnaes: Are Democrats the new G.O.P.?

Obama’s beer recipes revealed.

Red State Update: Jackie talks to Obama’s chair:

Pharmaceutical Ad: “Legitimate Rape”.

Palin Around With Terrorists:

  • Sarah complains (via Crooks and Liars).
  • Slate TV: Sarah Palin doesn’t want the attention. Really!

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Ann Telnaes: A conservative view of the American Worker.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, West Virginia edition.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

Rapid Ride

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 9/7/12, 5:17 pm

I appreciate it when national blogs get into the weeds of Seattle or Washington State issues. And while I think the elimination of the free ride area is a net good, I’m also skeptical that Rapid Ride line D is going to be, um, rapid.

The fact that it’s still on the road means it’s only going as fast as traffic. And it’s going to have problems with signal priority and, initially, with paying before your board. So it’s not going to be as fast as it could be. But hopefully those other things can be ironed out eventually.

All that said, even a small change in the bus can make a net positive benefit. I grew up in Lake Forest Park, and I can tell you the 522 is such a better way to get from North KC than the 307 was. It’s not winding and it doesn’t take a random stop at Northgate. The 15 isn’t nearly as bad as that was, so I’m not sure it can make it up.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

But I Thought McKenna Was Only Against the Individual Mandate

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 9/7/12, 7:01 am

The Republican Governors Association has an ad attacking Jay Inslee. It’s not particularly honest, but whatever: super PAC’s gonna super PAC.* But what struck me was this:

Without naming the legislation, the ad hits Inslee for voting for “a massive tax increase” on small businesses. They are referring to the Affordable Care Act. Obviously, there are competing claims about the impact the ACA will have on small businesses.

I’m sure the press who were quick to attack Inslee for mentioning the ACA will get around to attacking the RGA about it. I mean don’t the RGA know the difference between a state and a federal issue, and whatever other nonsense the local media brought up when Inslee mentioned it?

But that’s not even what concerns me. What concerns me is that the Republican Governors Association doesn’t seem to know Rob McKenna’s position on the American Care Act. It’s understandable, since I’m not sure McKenna knows what his position on it is. But he did say, “There are a number of provisions in this law that ought to be maintained.”

So, the RGA is attacking Inslee for voting for provisions that McKenna seems to support, sometimes. If that’s the best attack they have, they don’t have much of an attack at all.

[Read more…]

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print

The DNC Celebration

by Darryl — Thursday, 9/6/12, 11:34 pm

The DNC has just wrapped up their convention. The actual news: Both President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have accepted their Party’s nomination.

(I note that, despite some “excellent”, “well-intentioned” and “perfectly sound” advice from the our friends to the right, it wasn’t Hillary Clinton accepting the VP nomination…)

But the conventions were so much more than nomination machines. They provided Americans with a well-packaged set of arguments for why their candidates should be elected.

I listened to some of the content from both conventions, and man, what a difference! First, the Republicans sounded angrier. During the previous decade they peddled fear during their conventions. This decade they seemed to be peddling some bizarre moralistic hate. But the biggest difference is that the Republicans were selling us yesterday—a world without concerns for the environment, a world lacking equality for most non-Caucasian-hetersexual-male humans, a world lacking humanity and compassion. To me, it comes off as social and economic Darwinism—petty, selfish, greedy, primative thinking.

In contrast, the DNC was filled with thoughts of a better America—a future based on the future instead of clinging to a distant (and largely illusory) past. It was hopeful; it was optimistic; it was long term; it was about creating a better world together. It was a vision that embodies and embraces the single most distinctive trait of Homo sapiens: Our hyper-social nature that has empowered us to take collective action on huge scales to benefit whole societies. America is a shining example of this uniquely human trait.

Of course another huge difference between the two conventions was the use and abuse of Truth. Sure…some factual mistakes were made by speakers at both conventions. But there are elements at the very foundations of Romney’s argument to be President that are based on fabrications, distortions, or taking words out of context. As you can tell, I’m not buying hate, but peddling hate using lies, distortions, and out-of-context sound bites isn’t a winning strategy. Politically, you are what you eat, and too many people are smart enough to walk when being fed a constant diet of bullshit.

There were a number of inspiring speeches at the DNC. I’ll just cover the four biggies (and without suggestion that there were no other top-notch speeches at the convention):

  • I though President Obama had a solid speech, despite sounding rather horse and, maybe, a little tired. His arguments were coherent, convincing and, at times, inspiring. But, speaking as someone who sat in Mile High stadium as Sen. Obama delivered his first acceptance speech, it wasn’t his best address ever. Let’s give it a B+. It did the job quite nicely.
  • Michelle Obama gave a solid performance. I am constantly impressed by her ability to “play” First Lady, given the high power Type-A professional position she gave up to become FLOTUS. She is a most impressive human being.
  • Joe Biden was incredible. This speech was on par with the one he gave to the NAACP this year. Wingnuts have a strong tendency to underestimate Joe Biden. And, empirically, it hasn’t served them well.
  • Clearly, the top prize goes to Bill Clinton, who can serve it up like no other. Yes, my wingnut friends, Clinton definitely blows Reagan away in oratorical prowess. I challenge anyone to find a speech by Reagan that even came close to this one. Bill was on fire.

Ultimately, the DNC seemed like a celebration of the future. I liked the vision.

Share:

  • Facebook
  • Reddit
  • LinkedIn
  • Email
  • Print
  • « Previous Page
  • 1
  • …
  • 333
  • 334
  • 335
  • 336
  • 337
  • …
  • 1037
  • Next Page »

Recent HA Brilliance…

  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 5/19/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 5/16/25
  • Friday! Friday, 5/16/25
  • Wednesday! Wednesday, 5/14/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 5/13/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 5/12/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 5/9/25
  • Friday, Baby! Friday, 5/9/25
  • Wednesday Open Thread Wednesday, 5/7/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 5/6/25

Tweets from @GoldyHA

I no longer use Twitter because, you know, Elon is a fascist. But I do post occasionally to BlueSky @goldyha.bsky.social

From the Cesspool…

  • Roger Rabbit on Monday Open Thread
  • Prayers and maybe some thoughts on Monday Open Thread
  • Elijah Dominic McDotcom on Monday Open Thread
  • Elijah Dominic McDotcom on Monday Open Thread
  • Elijah Dominic McDotcom on Monday Open Thread
  • Queers are the REAL problem on Monday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Monday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Monday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Monday Open Thread
  • EvergreenRailfan on Monday Open Thread

Please Donate

Currency:

Amount:

Archives

Can’t Bring Yourself to Type the Word “Ass”?

Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!

Search HA

Follow Goldy

[iire_social_icons]

HA Commenting Policy

It may be hard to believe from the vile nature of the threads, but yes, we have a commenting policy. Comments containing libel, copyright violations, spam, blatant sock puppetry, and deliberate off-topic trolling are all strictly prohibited, and may be deleted on an entirely arbitrary, sporadic, and selective basis. And repeat offenders may be banned! This is my blog. Life isn’t fair.

© 2004–2025, All rights reserved worldwide. Except for the comment threads. Because fuck those guys. So there.