HorsesAss.Org

Shitheads for a Good Idea

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In 1995, there was a proposal to elect the Seattle City Council by districts. Mostly, it was on the ballot because Tom Stewart was a jackass (pdf). That said, the way we elect the city council is made of stupid. There’s no reason to have 9 at large districts. It means downtown and poorer areas are underrepresented on the council, and it means that communities of color and other groups that are geographically grouped have a tougher time electing people.

So, while I would prefer all district elections, I can see myself supporting a proposal to have some districts and some at large representatives if it gets on the ballot. Still, the people running it don’t seem like good people. The only one I know of is John Fox who has been on the wrong side of a lot of issues. Most recently he helped kill decent transit in this town because he didn’t like the tax structure, but whoops, forgot to ask the legislature to give us a more equitable way to pay for it. The rest of them seem worse.

The group, which will announce its plans in a press conference tomorrow morning, is headed up by three business representatives and one low-income housing activists [sic]. The business reps are Faye Garneau, director of the Aurora Avenue Merchants Association, who fought for years against bus lanes on Aurora; Fremont Dock owner Suzie Burke, who fought, most recently, against a bike lane on Stone Way in Fremont; Eugene Wasserman, one of the plaintiffs suing to stop the city from completing the “Missing Link” of the Burke-Gilman Trail; and Seattle Displacement Coalition founder John Fox, who has steadfastly fought against pro-density legislation, from Yesler Terrace to Roosevelt to, well, the entire city.

So, maybe I’ll support districts. But if these people think it’ll give them what they want, maybe I’ll have to reconsider.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

Obama’s “post convention bump” seems to be growing. My latest Monte Carlo Analysis of the state head-to-head polls has Obama leading Romney by an average of 341 to 197 electoral votes. On the other hand, there are cries from the right of ”liberal bias” in the polls. They suggest some kind of vast left-wing conspiracy among nearly all pollsters to include too many Democrats! Sure…and it’s probably orchestrated by the folks who brought us global warming….

Join us as we conspire every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.



Can’t make it to Seattle’s DL tonight? There are lots of other Washington state chapters of DL meeting over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. On Wednesday, the Burien chapter meets. On Thursday the Woodinville chapter meets. And on Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

Poll Analysis: Romney drops below 200 EVs

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Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 341 electoral votes Mean of 197 electoral votes

Beginning this analysis, I’ve narrowed the “current polling window.” The old window included all polls taken within the past month. That criterion resulted in some states with many “current” polls, including some pre-conventions polls.

The new criterion is three weeks, so that almost all the polling occurs after the conventions. You can expect the window to shrink to two weeks sometime in October.

There are two effects from shrinking the window. First, the number of individuals polled goes down for some states. With fewer respondents, we have less evidence and, therefore, uncertainty increases (all else being equal).

The other effect is that there is less smoothing of the results. That is, the results become more indicative of trends.

Taken together, we might expect that Governor Mitt Romney’s chances improve through the increase in uncertainty. We can also expect Romney’s chances to decrease as a result of a recent poll surge for Obama. As it happens, the latter has a much stronger effect. The net effect is that Romney takes a beating….

The previous analysis had Obama leading Romney by 331 to 207 electoral votes, and the analysis suggested that Obama would almost certainly win an election held now.

Nineteen new polls covering 13 states have appeared in the past two days. Additionally, I’ve found four older polls (one each in AL, CO, OH, and FL) by comparing my database against Samuel Minter’s database.

Here are the new polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AR Talk Business-Hendrix College 17-Sep 17-Sep 2228 2.0 34.5 55.5 R+21.0
CO PPP 20-Sep 23-Sep 940 3.2 51 45 O+6
FL PPP 20-Sep 23-Sep 861 3.3 50 46 O+4
FL WA Post 19-Sep 23-Sep 769 4.5 51 47 O+4
FL ARG 20-Sep 22-Sep 600 4.0 50 45 O+5
IA ARG 20-Sep 23-Sep 600 4.0 51 44 O+7
MI Rasmussen 20-Sep 20-Sep 500 4.5 54 42 O+12
MN Mason-Dixon 17-Sep 19-Sep 800 3.5 48 40 O+8
MT Mason-Dixon 17-Sep 19-Sep 625 4.0 42 51 R+9
NV ARG 20-Sep 23-Sep 600 4.0 51 44 O+7
NV NV Retailers 19-Sep 20-Sep 500 4.4 46 46 tie
NV PPP 18-Sep 20-Sep 501 4.4 52 43 O+9
NJ Monmouth 19-Sep 23-Sep 613 4.0 52 37 O+15
NC Civitas 18-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 49 45 O+4
OH Gravis Marketing 21-Sep 22-Sep 594 4.3 45.3 44.3 O+1.0
OH WA Post 19-Sep 23-Sep 759 4.5 52 44 O+8
PA Susquehanna 18-Sep 20-Sep 800 3.5 47 45 O+2
PA Mercyhurst U 12-Sep 20-Sep 522 4.3 48 40 O+8
WI WeAskAmerica 20-Sep 23-Sep 1238 2.8 52.5 41.0 O+11.5

With this new poll, seven of eight current Colorado polls go to Obama suggesting he would win an election now with about a 95% probability. One can sense from the last three months of polling that Obama is gaining slowly in the state:

ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Colorado

Florida has Obama up by +4% in two new polls and +5 in another. Obama has now led in five consecutive polls in the state. That trend we can almost discern in Colorado is even more apparent in Florida:
ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Florida

Romney took the previous Iowa poll, but this new one goes +7% for Obama. The three current polls, take together, suggest Obama has a 95% chance of taking the state right now.

Another solid Michigan poll for Obama leaves him with a certain win in the state (at least, for now).

Three new Nevada polls have Obama up by +7%, +9%, and +0% (i.e. tied). It looks like Obama is regaining the lead he held there six months ago:
ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Nevada

The Civitas Institute is a right wing think tank in North Carolina, but they release all their polls. This one has Obama leading by +4%. Obama leads in four of the six current polls and the last three in a row. Still, the weight of evidence goes very slightly to Romney. The trend seems to be in Obama’s favor:

ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12North Carolina

Two new Ohio polls favor Obama, one by a whisper, the other by +8%. Looking at the three month polling trend in the state, the past few weeks have not been kind to Romney:
ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Ohio

Obama gets his best and his worst poll in recent months in today’s Pennsylvania collection. Still, it is hard to argue that Obama’s lead isn’t solid:

ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Pennsylvania

Finally, a double-digit lead for Obama in Wisconsin caps off a very favorable collection of recent polls in the state for the President. Whatever momentum Romney had in the state in August seems to have almost entirely vanished:
ObamaRomney25Aug12-25Sep12Wisconsin

Now after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 341 (+10) to Romney’s 197 (-10) electoral votes. In a hypothetical election held now, Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

Open Thread 9/25

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– I didn’t watch the game because of the scab refs. Did anything happen?

– I’ve never heard Seattle Center called Seattle’s Living Room.

– But the reality is that Chick-fil-A showed that their flawed value having kitchen is filthy and I’m not going to forget that shit just because they are now saying they won’t allow filth mongers back there anymore.

– Just open the plane windows

– The avenging uterus.

OK, One Last Rapid Ride Post

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At least until it’s up and running on Saturday. Or until I think of something else. But I was looking at the map of C route on West Seattle Blog that I linked to in the Open Thread, and I had a few more thoughts.

First off, every time before now that I saw the maps, I’d completely missed that they were connected. Up at the top it says, “Continues as Rapid Ride D.” For some reason I had thought they were separate routes. So, it’ll be sort of like now from West Seattle downtown, the 54 changing into the 5, sometimes. You won’t have to get off. This alleviates some of my worries about the D route deadending in North Downtown. So if you’re in Pioneer Square and you’re heading to Ballard you catch the C North and it quickly turns into the D. Hopefully always? Like it’s one route.

I don’t know if that was a branding issue, or what, but it seems like it would make more sense to call it one line now that there’s no free ride area to confuse when you board. Maybe it’s a lesson from the failure of the Monorail where everybody criticized it for going from West Seattle to Ballard, when obviously the point was it went from Ballard or West Seattle to Downtown and then continuing to the other.

The other thing I noticed is that it goes on the Viaduct. This makes sense for now: it’s going from West Seattle to Downtown. But the Viaduct won’t be around much longer, and the tunnel won’t have an exit on Seneca or an entrance on Columbia. Presumably it’ll either go through SoDo or I-5, but either way will make it less rapid. If it’s through SoDo, hopefully, they’ll have figured out signal prioritization.

Open Thread 9/24

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– Rapid Ride C and pay as you enter both ways are coming to West Seattle.

– A plurality of Shoreline residents would support a plastic bag ban. So it’s not just the dirty hippies in Seattle.

– We are free to be assholes. But we can never be free to do so without thereby making ourselves assholes.

– Bullshit.

– Now, some health officials and communications experts are saying the symbol for climate impacts should be a child, not a polar bear.

– Only one of these things is a gaff.

– Obama needs to work on being a better antichrist.

Poll Analysis: SC magically turns red!

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Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 331 electoral votes Mean of 207 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

I’ve finally succumbed to the pressure of “doing something about South Carolina.” The last straw was Goldy harassing me over the phone for the umpteenth time this past week. So, I caved and changed the inclusion criteria for states lacking “current polls.” Note that I did not simply drop the vexing S.C. poll, but the new inclusion criteria means that when there are no current polls, multiple old polls will be pooled.

Here is what I have been doing: If a state does not have a “current poll”, I use the single most recent poll available. Right now, the definition of “current poll” is any poll taken over the past month (this “window” will shrink as the election approaches and the pace of polling increases).

That simple rule worked pretty well in 2008. But a single, large poll in South Carolina has plagued these analyses since late last year. The poll is perfectly valid, and might even be correct in giving Obama an 85% probability of winning the state. But it is quite old, and there are other slightly older polls in the state that contradict it. What’s an analyst to do?

I modified a suggestion from Richard Pope and used an inclusion window for older polls, the length of which depends on how old the most recent poll is. Here his the new rule set:

  1. Use only polls taken in the “current polling window” (one month, right now)
  2. If the most recent poll is outside the current polling window and less than 3 months old, use that poll and any others taken over the prior two weeks
  3. if the most recent poll is 3-6 months old, use that polls and any others from the prior month
  4. if the most recent poll is 6-9 months old, use that poll and any other from the prior three months
  5. if the most recent poll is 9-12 months old, use that poll and any other from the prior six months
  6. if the most recent poll is more than a year old, use that poll and any other from the prior year

There are several disadvantages of this new rule set: First, it is complicated. As you know, I strive to minimize arbitrary assumptions in the methods, but now I’ve gone and added a complex, arbitrary rule. Yuck. Another disadvantage is that the new rules will tend to overestimate the winning certainty for states with multiple old polls included in an analysis. On the other hand, a state that hasn’t been polled in a long time probably hasn’t been polled much, so most of the time the single most recent poll will still be used. South Carolina is an exception. There were a bunch of polls taken late last year. I believe this happened because there was “piggyback” polling of the general election by pollsters covering the contentious G.O.P. primary in that state.

Okay…so let’s get to it. Just three days ago the analysis had President Barack Obama leading Gov. Mitt Romney by 336 to 202 electoral votes. The results suggested that, if an election was held now, Obama would almost certainly win.

In the three days since my previous analysis, there have been some 19 new polls (plus, I am including an old poll, previously overlooked). Here are the polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 45 48 R+3
CA PPIC 09-Sep 16-Sep 995 4.4 53 39 O+14
CO Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 48 45 O+3
CO Marist 16-Sep 18-Sep 971 3.1 50 45 O+5
FL Mason-Dixon 17-Sep 19-Sep 800 3.5 48 47 O+1
FL Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 47 48 R+1
GA InsiderAdvangage 18-Sep 18-Sep 483 4.5 35 56 R+21
IA Marist 16-Sep 18-Sep 898 3.3 50 42 O+8
NE Wiese Res 17-Sep 20-Sep 800 3.5 40 51 R+11
NE2 Wiese Res 17-Sep 20-Sep 400 4.9 44 44 tie
NC Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 48 46 O+2
NC High Point 08-Sep 18-Sep 448 4.7 48 44 O+4
OH Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 48 44 O+4
OH FOX News 16-Sep 18-Sep 1009 3.0 49 42 O+7
OH Ohio Poll 13-Sep 18-Sep 861 3.3 51 45 O+6
OH Gravis Marketing 07-Sep 08-Sep 1548 2.7 47.3 43.2 O+4.1
PA Rasmussen 19-Sep 19-Sep 500 4.5 51 39 O+12
SD Neilson Brothers 29-Aug 06-Sep 512 4.3 38.7 53.9 R+15.2
VA Purple Poll 15-Sep 19-Sep 600 4.0 46 43 O+3
WI Marist 16-Sep 18-Sep 968 3.2 50 45 O+5

The race seems to tighten in Arizona where Romney just squeaks by with a +3%. Also, this is the first time since early June that Romney has been under 50%.

On the other hand, California tightens as well. Obama gets +14% where he used to pull in the low +20%.

Another pair of Colorado polls go to Obama, who leads in seven of the eight current polls, and seems to have a 91% chance of taking the state (in an election held now).

Florida gives each candidate a poll, by +1%. From twelve polls pooled over the past month, the ~11,000 responses go to Obama 50.8% of the time and to Romney 49.2% of the time. That translates into an 88% probability that Obama would win the state now.

The good news for Romney is that Georgia shows the strongest result for him this year.

Iowa has a strong +8% result for Obama. This poll was taken slightly before the Rasmussen poll I included last analysis that had Romney up by +3%. Even so, with Obama taking two of the three current polls, Obama would seem to have an 89% chance of taking the state right now.

We finally have some polling in Nebraska, where Romney bests Obama by +11%. That the good news for Romney. Recall that Nebraska assigns one elector to the winner of each CD, and the overall state winner gets the other two electors. The bad news for Romney is that Nebraska’s second congressional district polls at a 44% tie. Obama won NE-2 in 2008 and may do it again! (The polling report mentions that Romney has a solid lead in the other two CD’s, but the numbers are not given; instead, an older poll is used for those two CDs. Romney leads in both.)

Two new North Carolina polls go to Obama by small margins. Even so, Romney has led in five of nine current polls (and there was a tie). Overall, the pooled polls favor Romney with an 83% probability of winning an election held now.

With the three new Ohio polls, Obama has a streak of eight consecutive poll leads in the state. Obama won 99% of the simulated elections in the state.

A double-digit lead for Obama in the newest Pennsylvania poll. Obama has won all four of the state’s current polls.

South Dakota gives Romney his first double digit SC lead of the year.

Like Ohio, the new Virginia poll gives Obama a streak of eight consecutive poll leads in the state. But Obama only won 95% of the simulated elections in Virginia.

The new Wisconsin poll means Obama leads in all five current polls, and gives Obama a very high probability of taking the state (in a hypothetical election held now).

After a Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times and Romney wins 0 times. Obama receives (on average) 331 to Romney’s 207 electoral votes. Obama has a 100.0% probability of winning and Romney has a 0.0% probability of winning. And that is with South Carolina going to Romney 95% of the time.

Using the new “old poll inclusion criteria,” here is the picture of the race over time:
ObamaRomney23Sep11-23Sep12ex

Hmmm…it looks pretty much like the old one that used the simple “single most recent” rule.

[Read more…]

HA Mormon Study

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[HA Bible Study is on hiatus through the November election as we honor Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by studying the scriptures of his Mormon religion.]

Book of Mormon, Mosiah 11:6
Yea, and thus they were supported in their laziness, and in their idolatry, and in their whoredoms, by the taxes which king Noah had put upon his people; thus did the people labor exceedingly to support iniquity.

Discuss.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Guide to voter ID laws.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Roy Zimmerman with Sandy Riccardi: The Wedding of Church and State:

Thom: The Good, the Bad and The Very, Very Ugly.

Ed: Democrats Rebound in Senate Races For 2012

Mark Fiore: Why do they hate us?

President Obama on Letterman.

Young Turks: Rush Limbaugh blames “Feminazis” for his small penis.

Thom and Pap: GOP says “lazy people shouldn’t vote.

Obama v. Romney in Patriot Games:

Ann Telnaes: Testing your free speech limits.

White House: West Wing Week.

WILLARD!!!

Ann Telnaes: Justice Scalia vents.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Jon: Jesus’ wife.

Sarah Silverman does a Voter ID PSA:

Sam Seder: Florida makes it almost impossible to register to vote.

Young Turks: ON that Sarah Silverman video.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Jump Off the Cliff Together

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While I’m generally a McGinn partisan, I haven’t been impressed with his handling of police reform. After the Williams killing, he was quick to do symbolic things right: he declared a John T. Williams day, and did his part to make sure the totem poll got a place in Seattle Center, something I think most mayors would have fought. And there are other times where individually or symbolically he’s been good. But after the DOJ report, he dragged his feet, when he should have lead.

So, I’m heartened to read, at least initially, that Connie Rice seems to be saying the right things.

“I need to understand the factions,” Rice told me after her first day of interviews with community groups, the mayor, and cops. She says a court order approved by US District Court judge James Robart last month to remedy patterns of excessive force and racial bias in policing is “just a document.” Before the city can make cultural changes, everyone involved—the mayor, council, city attorney, beat cops, community groups, etc.—must decide that “you all want to jump off the cliff together.”

Dominic Holden is still pretty skeptical. And perhaps rightly so. For now, I have some hope that things might work out.

Park(ing) Day

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It’s that time of year again. When Saint Park(ing) magically tuns a few parking spaces throughout the city into tiny parks.

PARK(ing) Day happens every third Friday in September and is an opportunity for artists, activists, and community members to temporarily make parking spaces into parks. The event raises awareness about important issues like creating a walkable, livable, healthy city.

If any of those spaces are near you, and you have time at lunch, or whatever, check them out.

Poll Analysis: A not-so-good week for Romeny

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Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 336 electoral votes Mean of 202 electoral votes

My previous Monte Carlo analysis, conducted one week ago, showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by (on average) 306 to 232 electoral votes. If the election had been held last week, the analysis suggested that Obama would win with a 97.9% probability.

I guess I waited too long to do a new analysis, because the past week has brought us 47 new polls (plus a poll that breaks out Maine’s two congressional districts):

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA Field Poll 06-Sep 17-Sep 891 3.4 58 34 O+24
CO Rasmussen 17-Sep 17-Sep 500 4.5 45 47 R+2
CO Quinnipiac 11-Sep 17-Sep 1497 3.0 48 47 O+1
CO ARG 10-Sep 12-Sep 600 4.0 49 47 O+2
CO SurveyUSA 09-Sep 12-Sep 615 4.0 47 46 O+1
CT U CT 11-Sep 16-Sep 508 4.4 53 32 O+21
FL WeAskAmerica 18-Sep 18-Sep 1230 2.8 49.1 45.5 O+3.6
FL FOX News 16-Sep 18-Sep 829 3.0 49 44 O+5
FL Gravis Marketing 15-Sep 16-Sep 1728 2.5 47.1 47.7 R+0.6
IA Rasmussen 19-Sep 19-Sep 500 4.5 44 47 R+3
KY SurveyUSA 11-Sep 13-Sep 606 4.1 39 53 R+14
ME PPP 17-Sep 18-Sep 804 3.5 55 39 O+16
ME Maine PRC 15-Sep 17-Sep 856 3.4 53.5 37.3 O+16.2
ME1 Maine PRC 15-Sep 17-Sep 445 — 58.7 33.9 O+24.8
ME2 Maine PRC 15-Sep 17-Sep 410 — 47.8 41.0 O+6.8
MA WBUR 15-Sep 17-Sep 507 4.4 59 31 O+28
MA UMass-Lowell 13-Sep 17-Sep 497 5.5 59 36 O+23
MA Suffolk 13-Sep 16-Sep 600 4.0 63.5 30.5 O+33.0
MA PPP 13-Sep 16-Sep 876 3.3 57 39 O+18
MA WNEU 06-Sep 13-Sep 444 4.6 60 38 O+22
MI Detroit News 15-Sep 17-Sep 600 4.0 52.0 37.8 O+14.2
MI CNN 14-Sep 18-Sep 754 3.5 52 44 O+8
MI MRG 10-Sep 15-Sep 600 4.0 47.5 42.3 O+5.2
MI Baydoun 12-Sep 12-Sep 1156 2.9 45.5 43.7 O+1.8
NV Rasmussen 18-Sep 18-Sep 500 4.5 47 45 O+2
NV CNN 14-Sep 18-Sep 741 3.5 49 46 O+3
NH Rasmussen 18-Sep 18-Sep 500 4.5 45 48 R+3
NH ARG 15-Sep 17-Sep 463 4.5 48 47 O+1
NJ Philadelphia Inquirer 09-Sep 12-Sep 600 4.0 51 37 O+14
NJ Fairleigh Dickinson 06-Sep 12-Sep 706 3.8 52 38 O+14
NC Rasmussen 13-Sep 13-Sep 500 4.5 45 51 R+6
OH Rasmussen 12-Sep 12-Sep 500 4.5 47 46 O+1
OH ARG 10-Sep 12-Sep 600 4.0 48 47 O+1
OR SurveyUSA 10-Sep 13-Sep 552 4.3 49.5 40.7 O+8.9
PA WeAskAmerica 18-Sep 18-Sep 1214 2.9 48.1 42.2 O+5.9
PA Muhlenberg 10-Sep 16-Sep 640 4.0 50 41 O+9
PA Philadelphia Inquirer 09-Sep 12-Sep 600 4.0 50 39 O+11
VA FOX News 16-Sep 18-Sep 1006 3.0 50 43 O+7
VA WeAskAmerica 17-Sep 17-Sep 1238 2.8 48.5 45.7 O+2.8
VA PPP 13-Sep 16-Sep 1021 3.1 51 46 O+5
VA Quinnipiac 11-Sep 17-Sep 1474 3.0 50 46 O+4
VA WA Post 12-Sep 16-Sep 847 4.0 52 44 O+8
VA Rasmussen 13-Sep 13-Sep 500 4.5 49 48 O+1
WA Elway 09-Sep 12-Sep 405 5.0 53 36 O+17
WA SurveyUSA 07-Sep 09-Sep 524 4.4 54.4 37.6 O+16.8
WI PPP 18-Sep 19-Sep 842 3.4 52 45 O+7
WI Rasmussen 17-Sep 17-Sep 500 4.5 49 46 O+3
WI Marquette 13-Sep 16-Sep 601 4.1 54 40 O+14
WI Quinnipiac 11-Sep 17-Sep 1485 3.0 51 45 O+6

I’ll just comment briefly on some states. Overall, the week’s polling looks very good for Obama, but with a couple of minor exceptions.

Obama takes three of four Colorado polls. This suggests a slight but real lead in the state. The Monte Carlo analysis gave Obama an 84% probability of winning based on the seven current polls.

Obama comes out on top in Florida. He has led in seven of the eleven polls taken over the past month.

Iowa is one of the few bright spots for Romney. He leads Obama by +3% in this week’s poll. But Obama leads in the other current poll, and overall has a very slight edge.

Romney looks destined to loose his boyhood home state of Michigan that gives Obama leads in four polls ranging from +2% to +14%.

Nevada is looking blue, but not by much. Combined with one other poll from the past month, the analysis gives Obama an 81% probability of taking the state.

Romney is up by +3% in one poll and down by -1% in another in New Hampshire. Combined with one other current poll Obama gets a 63% probability of winning now.

The other bit of good news for Romney is the most recent North Carolina poll that has Romney leading Obama by a modest +6%. Romney now leads in five of eight current polls and must be considered the leader in the state. A turn-around for Romney can be discerned from the last 6 months of polling:

ObamaRomney20Aug12-20Sep12North Carolina

There are three new Ohio polls, but I accidentally left the new FOX News poll out for this analysis. Even without that +7% for Obama, the two new polls give Obama a slight lead. Romney has only led in one of the seven current polls, and Obama would be expected to win the state now with a 90% probability. (The FOX News poll will be in the next analysis.)

We finally get a new poll in Oregon, and Obama is still up by something over 8%.

Pennsylvania is still looking blue. The past past month of polling has Obama winning an election now with certainty.

Six new polls in Virginia all go pretty convincingly for Obama. The polling history over six months completes the story…whatever advantage Romney had in the state a few weeks ago was transient:
ObamaRomney20Aug12-20Sep12Virginia

It doesn’t look like Ryan will be delivering Wisconsin to Romney. The four new polls range from +3% to +14% for Obama. If anything, the selection of Ryan has moved the state further into Obama’s column:

ObamaRomney20Aug12-20Sep12Wisconsin

Now, after a Monte Carlo analysis employing 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,975 times and Romney wins 25 times. Obama receives (on average) 336 to Romney’s 202 electoral votes. The analysis suggests that, in an election right now, Obama would have very nearly a 100.0% probability of defeating Romney.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 20 Sep 2011 to 20 Sep 2012, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ). Obama is performing near his peak for the election season.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Both Shocking and Shameful

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Patty Murray’s press release about the GOP killing the Veterans Jobs Corps Act.

“It’s both shocking and shameful that Republicans today chose to kill a bill to put America’s veterans back to work. At a time when one in four young veterans are unemployed, Republicans should have been able, for just this once, to put aside the politics of obstruction and to help these men and women provide for their families.

“But this vote is stark reminder that Senator McConnell and Senate Republicans are willing to do absolutely anything to fulfill the pledge he made nearly two years ago to defeat President Obama. It doesn’t matter who gets in their way or which Americans they have to sacrifice in that pursuit, even if it’s our nation’s veterans.

“It’s unbelievable that even after more than a decade of war many Republicans still will not acknowledge that the treatment of our veterans is a cost of war. Today they voted down a fully paid for bill that included bipartisan ideas to put veterans in jobs that will allow them to serve their communities. Jobs that would have helped provide veterans with the self-esteem that is so critical to their successful transition home.

“Today Senate Republicans told the less than 1% of Americans who have spent the last decade serving and sacrificing for the other 99% of Americans that they are not willing to honor that sacrifice with new investments in their well-being when they return home.”

I hate that we went to war in Iraq. I hate that the war in Afghanistan is still going on (and I wasn’t happy with it from the beginning, although unlike Iraq, I understood the case for it). But as long as we decide to go to war, we’d damn well better make sure we do right by the people who fight it.

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