HorsesAss.Org

The blame game is on. Lacking polls to kick around anymore, pundits are looking for the cause(s) of Mitt Romney’s spectacular loss.

For months, we heard that the race was supposed to be a “nail biter.” And toward the end, we heard that Romney “had the momentum.” Things were looking promising for a Romney victory.

In the coming weeks, I’m sure we’ll see many hypotheses and analyses, and proposed turning points where the momentum was lost and Romney’s fate was sealed.

But here’s the fact: Romney lost because he was never ahead in the election. Unlike McCain in 2008, Romney was always losing the 2012 election.

This election was no spectacular loss. It was the ordinary loss of a candidate who was always behind. Period.

It was always in front of our eyes (and I did my best to point it out). The state head-to-head polls never showed Romney with much of chance of winning.

Here is a daily Monte Carlo analysis of the head-to-head polls over the two month leading up to the election (one week “current polls” window):

Romney did have “momentum” in this race. It started before the first presidential debate, following Obama’s post-convention bubble, around the 29th of September. The momentum ended with Romney at his strongest showing around the second presidential debate. Even at his strongest, Romney only had about a 25% chance of winning.

I suppose this was a turning point more than any other. If Obama had blown the second debate, Romney might have maintained his momentum and gone on to win.

But, instead, Obama gained the momentum. From the second debate forward, Obama’s lead grew slowly and steadily, and his chances of winning increased. By the last day of October, Obama hit a 95% probability of winning the election. He still had the momentum.

Hurricane Sandy made no difference whatsoever (as Mitt Romney seems to believe); nor Hurricane Christie. Obama’s win was well secured by that point.

To believe Romney had a chance was to dismiss hundreds of polls as simultaneously skewed. But, like 2008, in this election, aggregation of the state head-to-head polls gave an entirely accurate picture of the election.

At least one right-winger may have let on that he actually does understand why Romney lost:

“We’re outnumbered.”

— Rush Limbaugh, on his radio show.

Wednesday’s tabulations have arrived, spreadsheets have been filled in, and I’ve got quick updates on three of Washington’s statewide races. Here’s the executive summary:

• Governor — not much has changed. Jay remains in the lead, but Rob still has a chance. Maybe even a slightly greater chance than he did after Tuesday’s count.
• Referendum 74 — Approved stretches its lead. I think the marriage-equality supporters have every right to claim victory.
• Secretary of State — Wyman tiptoes a bit farther ahead, but it’s still much too close to call

New ballot counts were reported by 19 counties on Wednesday. The 228,253 newly-recorded votes constituted less than 12% of Tuesday’s count of 1,947,063. My assumption is that Wednesday was mostly finishing up the backlog of ballots processed before the deadline, and that the first late-arriving ballots won’t be tabulated until Thursday’s report. With nearly 750K uncounted ballots on hand, the estimated turnout jumped from 65.7% to 74.8% (it’ll go appreciably higher before we’re finished.

Inslee led McKenna 51.3% to 48.7% on Tuesday night, with a predicted final tally of 51.2% to 48.8%. He didn’t do nearly as well on Wednesday; in fact, McKenna picked up slightly more than half (50.4%) of the day’s count. Inslee’s percentage in King County came to just under 60%, well below Tuesday’s 63%. With the small number of new ballots, though, the cumulative statewide numbers are just about the same as on Tuesday — actually 51.1% to 48.9% (a bit worse than on Tuesday), predicted 51.3% to 48.7% (a bit better than on Tuesday). The seeming contradiction arises from the nonuniform distribution of new votes by county.

Approval of R-74 had 51.8% of the Tuesday vote, to 48.2% Reject. My estimate at that time was a final 51.7% to 48.3% tally. It got better on Wednesday, as 53.4% of the new ballots were for Approve. Approve did better on Wednesday than on Tuesday in 17 of the day’s 19 counties; only Lincoln and Spokane Counties bucked the trend. The Approve rate on Wednesday’s King County ballots (67.6%) was more than two percent higher than Tuesday’s (65.5%). Through Wednesday, Approve’s cumulative percentage was 52.0% and its estimated final result was 52.1%. It’s all but certain that Washington will join Maine and Maryland on the right side of the argument.

Wednesday’s new ballots reaffirmed the tightness of the battle to replace Sam Reed as Secretary of State. After the first day’s count, Republican Kim Wyman led Kathleen Drew by less than one point, 50.4% to 49.6%. At that time, my predicted final tally was identical to the actual percentages. Wyman’s margin among Wednesday’s new ballots (52.7% to 47.3%) was appreciably higher than Tuesday’s, and her Wednesday percentage exceeded Tuesday’s in 13 of the 19 counties. While my estimated outcome didn’t change with the addition of Wednesday’s ballots, Wyman’s actual percentage rose to 50.6% to Drew’s 49.4%. This race remains basically deadlocked. I must say, though, that if Wyman were the Auditor of any county other than Thurston, she would be trailing. Normally reliably Democratic, Thurston favors its Republican favorite daughter 59.0% to 41.0%.

I anticipate a larger number of newly tabulated ballots in Thursday’s count, as many counties start tallying ballots that hadn’t been been sitting in the county offices, waiting for the official poll-closing at 8pm. We will likely have a much clearer picture of the gubernatorial race, and perhaps also of the SoS outcome. And I’ll be here, peering at my spreadsheets and analyzing what’s going on.

[UPDATE] (1:30pm)]

In comment #1, Moderate Man asked why I wasn’t looking at I-1240, the initiative in which Bill Gates and friends are pushing privatizing education charter schools. I had no good answer to the question (see comment #7), so I went back and built a spreadsheet to examine it.

On Tuesday, Yes on I-1240 was leading 51.2% to 48.8%. My estimation method put the “final” tally at 51.4% to 48.6%. In Wednesday’s returns, Yes was ever-so-slightly ahead, garnering 72 votes more than No among the 216,702 recorded votes (to one decimal place, that’s a 50-50 dead heat). At 51.1% to 48.9%, the cumulative result was identical to my interim estimate.

I’ll include I-1240 as this series continues. Even if the bigots opponents of R-74 have conceded, I’ll still report on that race for at least one more day.

Well, not exactly… but since I, nor anyone else, know how to make the connection to the markets and Fox News watching investors, it’s only an amusing assumption.

Box Fizzness:

“Given the opposing views on the speed and degree of fiscal consolidation necessary, the status quo outcome implies difficult negotiations ahead on the fiscal cliff … and the debt ceiling,” analysts at Nomura wrote in a note to clients.

Reading recent Krugman makes you wonder if that loyalty has in fact spread past the republican caucus.

Given the starkness of this difference, you might have expected to see people from both sides of the political divide urging voters to cast their ballots based on the issues. Lately, however, I’ve seen a growing number of Romney supporters making a quite different argument. Vote for Mr. Romney, they say, because if he loses, Republicans will destroy the economy.

I’d come to the conclusion some time ago that watching TV news is not a healthy activity. And as dangerous as irrational exuberance is, I’d add that the dangers of irrational pessimism are equally as bad. But if we were to have a Jonestown style fiscal suicide among conservative investors, the dirty rotten little liberal in me hopes it happens just before a robust Obama economic resurgence. And despite my health advisory, I’ll watch the squealing on Fox News.

Early this morning, Darryl presented a brief discussion of yesterday’s results in the gubernatorial race. He introduced a model of its eventual outcome:

• take the actual county-by-county D-R percentages from November 6
• apply county-specific 2008 turnout percentages
• estimate the final outcome between Inslee and McKenna

This may be, as he explains, a conservative model, in that recent elections have demonstrated a generalized increase in Democratic percentages over the days of post-Election Day tabulations. As I explained in a DailyKos diary about the 2010 Murray-Rossi Senate race (posted on the Friday after Election Day:

During the day on Thursday, 22 of the 39 counties added ballots to their totals, counting a total of 207,170 votes in the Senate race. Patty Murray received 113,085 (54.6%) of those votes, with smarmy huckster Dino Rossi pulling down the remaining 94,085 votes, 45.4% of the day’s total.

As she did on Wednesday, Patty increased her percentage of the vote in most of the reporting counties, 16 of the 22. But that doesn’t come close to describing how she dominated the day. You see, the counties in which Murray did worse on Thursday than she had been doing theretofore (Asotin, Clark, Cowlitz, Grant, Lewis, and Pend Oreille) tallied only 27,836 of the day’s ballots. That is, a mere 13.4% of the Thursday votes were from counties where Patty underperformed. Counties where she outperformed her previous level comprised 86.6% of the day’s counted ballots.

Patty even won the day in several red counties. For instance, she took 50.7% of Island County’s 4031 Wednesday ballots, though her overall votes percentage there is 49.7%. Pierce always seems to hover near the break-even point, and Patty’s 50.6% on Wednesday (22,891 ballots) hardly budged her cumulative 49.7% mark. And then there’s Klickitat County, where Murray’s 52.9% (359 of 688 ballots) was shockingly high. It raised her cumulative share of the small county’s overall vote from 41.4% to 42.3%.

For context, Murray won 50.5% statewide on Tuesday night, 53.4% on Wednesday (cumulatively 50.8%), and 54.6% on Thursday (reaching a cumulative 51.3% over the three days). Two nights after the election, her overall share of the vote had increased by almost a full percent.

So Darryl’s model, wherein the D-R percentage doesn’t change over time, is a conservative one.

I too have developed a model for estimating the eventual outcome of the election. It’s rather different from Darryl’s. What I do is to “believe” what the counties report to the Secretary of State. By which I mean that on each night I assume (pretend might be a better word) that the total number of ballots that will be processed by a county equals the sum of their Total Ballots Counted to Date and their Estimated Ballots on Hand to be Processed, as reported on the SoS’s Voter Turnout page. My estimate consists of combining each county’s current D-R percentages with the sum defined above.
[Read more…]

I had to get up way early this morning to take Kathy to SeaTac, and had a few minutes to look at the election results in the gubernatorial race.

As things stood early this morning, Jay Inslee (D) was leading Rob McKenna (R) by 2.6% and a total of 50,209 votes. Of course only a fraction of the vote has been tallied.

To get a quick projection, I used the 2008 turn-out figures for total turnout by county (not turnout by party, just totals for each county). From there, I estimated the remaining votes left to be counted. Then I used the D & R percentages observed in the first ballot night drop to estimate the number of new votes expected for each candidate.

This last step is controversial. After all, we usually observe that later ballots are increasingly D-leaning. But, doing it this way should give us a worse case scenario for Inslee—if past trends hold this election.

What did I find? Inslee still leads at the end of the election, but by only 1.1%, not the healthier 2.6% observed at the end of election day. And, that translates to a 44,000 vote win for Inslee.

So…if the late ballots trend D (typical), Inslee should be in good shape. If they don’t trend at all, Inslee still wins in a squeaker.

However, if they trend R…we might even have to start talking “recount.” And then, may god(s) have mercy on our souls.

– A pretty damn good night.

– Donald Trump wants a revolution because of the electoral college. Also, maybe he should have waited until the California votes had come in.

– But Bill O’Reilly is worse.

– Rosemary McAuliffe keeps her seat.

– When do I take down my Jay Inslee sign in my window and take the Obama button off my coat?

– Technology is helping kick polio’s ass.

– Don’t block the window seat.

Polls are closing in the East, and we have ourselves a horse race!

The Montlake Alehouse has CNN on the TeeVee box, but I’ll sometimes switch to NPR when their election coverage starts.

(Note: Times in PST)

4:47: Via Twitter:

Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato
OHIO: Vast majority of pre-election polls & now election exit poll show Obama up 1-3%. Either all wrong or Obama wins.

4:50: A few minutes ago, Wolf Blitzer called South Carolina for Romney. And when he showed the vote totals, Obama was leading by a 4 to 1 margin. There were only 10,000s or so total votes. Blitzer had some ‘splaining to do!

4:57: Huh…Obama is still up by 57% in SC, with 40,000 or so counted.

5:02: CNN projects a bunch of states and it is Obama 64 EVs to Romney 40 EVs.

5:25: I just put on NPR and heard Matthew Continetti say that we are heading for a national vote/electoral vote split. E.J. Dionne expresses some skepticism….

5:31: I was wrong! Mitt Romney takes Tennessee!

5:43: It’s Romney 82, Obama 64 EV over at CNN. Prepare the capsules, my friends…..

6:02: Well…it would seem Romney did NOT have a good chance of taking Michigan. CNN calls it for Obama.

6:13: Geez…with Michigan out of the picture, Romney has a very tough road to 269!

6:25: Huh. Obama is way up in Colorado. How could that be? I thought Republicans were WAAAAAY ahead in the early voting?!?

6:42: Axelrod’s mustache breathes a sigh of relief! Pennsylvania is called for Barack Obama. Huh…what happened to that momentum the Romney camp had going in Ohio PA (you know, without actually winning a poll)?

6:46: Elizabeth Warren beats Brown in MA! Ted Kennedy can now quit rolling over and over in his grave and be peacefully dead.

6:49: Donnelly is called for Indiana! It’s good for America when Republicans express their true feelings about women’s reproductive health issues…and religion.

6:57: Oh dear, Mitt Romney loses another home state…New Hampshire.

7:00: It isn’t a total loss for Mitt…they just called Utah for him!

7:02: Romney is up +2% in the popular vote. Somehow I think California will have something to say about that!

7:09: McCaskill is called for Missouri. Have I mentioned how good it is for Americans when Republicans express their true feelings about women’s reproductive health issues…and religion?

7:18: Down goes (not) Joe the (not) Plumber!

7:21: Obama gets New Mexico. Not a surprise, really, unless you are living in the 1990s or something.

7:24: They are getting at the crux of the issue in Florida. Whether Obama or Romney wins, why didn’t Romney WALK AWAY with Florida? The answer: Demography. Republicans rule the demographics that are, for the most part, shrinking.

7:51: Minnesota is called for Obama.

7:57: George Allen has conceded defeat in Virginia!

8:01: Obama gets a big batch of love (and electors) from the West coast: CA, WA, and HI

8:04: (via N in Seatle). We can now say that Paul Ryan’s major contribution to this election is that…it took an extra hour to call Wisconsin. And Wisconsin is called for Barack Obama.

8:06: CNN projects that Democrats will keep control of the Senate. This is a remarkable accomplishment. Over the past couple of years, our right wing trolls have spared no mercy pointing out how the math of hanging on to the Senate just doesn’t work. Shows what they know about math!

8:10: Romney gets North Carolina!

8:10: Obama gets Iowa!!!!

8:15: I hear that NBC has called the ELECTION for Obama.

8:16: In the mean time CNN calls Oregon for Obama.

8:18: And CNN now calls the race for Obama!

8:21: Ohio was called for Obama by PBS CNN and it was that that put him over the top.

8:37: It is hard to get too excited about any of the state or King County races, because King County will only do a single ballot drop tonight.

8:44: On the other hand…now that KC has dropped, Inslee has a pretty hefty lead! Unfortunately the SOS web site is constipated, or I would have some details. DelBene 55% Koster 45%.

8:50: Nevada goes to Obama!

8:53: Back to WA: Inslee 51.7% and McKenna 48.3. Don’t get too excited though. There are many more votes to count, and King County was expected to process more ballots for their Tuesday evening drop than usual.

It’s a party!

Join us tonight for election watching, conversation, and lots and lots of celebration at the 2012 Election Edition of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00pm. But for election night, we’ll start at 5:00 pm.

The Alehouse will have TV coverage of the election (with reasonable audio levels). But bring your own radio and headphones/earbuds if you want to concentrate on results—there will be some celebrating and the normal high background noises of a busy pub. Also, there is free WiFi available for streaming, surfing, blogging, tweeting. Whatever. Ask your server for the password.

I’ll be liveblogging the festivities (perhaps with others), so you can always join the party by diving into the cesspool discussion threads.

Can’t make it to Seattle? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. On Tuesday the Tri-Cities chapter meets, and on Thursday Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including fourteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

My last post was a bit negative. There will be a results thread at some point, but for now, share your stories of who you voted for and why. Do you like absentee voting or miss going to a polling place?

Good Christ, I’m so glad this election is done tomorrow. I was injured and so I didn’t canvas anywhere, or do much volunteering. I usually feel like I have some control of some down-ballot races by knocking on doors or making phone calls. This time, I’ve given some money, but haven’t been able to feel like I got someone out to the polls or convinced someone by calling them. So it’s just my vote.

Don’t get me wrong, I love writing here. And I think it makes a difference. And I’m glad that y’all have stopped by. But it’s not the same as interacting with people at their door.

Even without that, this election has felt like more of a slog than they often do. Maybe since it started like 10 seconds after Obama took the oath of office. Maybe it’s a fairly negative election. I don’t even have a TV box, so I’ve missed most of the commercials, but the PAC’s and super PAC’s feel like they’re overwhelming the candidates in ways that are even worse than before.

Anyway, all this is to say, I’ll be glad when tomorrow is done. I’ll be gladder if Obama and Inslee win. So please, please, please get those ballots postmarked or dropped off by tomorrow.

– You’re going to vote for the liar. Because he shares your moral values.

– I’m both horrified at the GOP disenfranchisement machine and awed that people are pressing ahead in spite of it.

– It’s not all irrational programing at Fox News?

– Bales himself will not make any statements during the Article 32 hearing. The court proceeding in Tacoma is similar to a pretrial hearing in civilian courts. It’s scheduled to last at least one week.

– A West Seattle man accused of attacking a gay man with a bat while shouting homophobic slurs now faces a hate crime charge.

– This is as good an explanation for the trolls as anything.

There’s a lot of disillusionment with the state of our political system right now. We have two major parties that are largely beholden to powerful economic interests who’ve figured out how to funnel taxpayer money into their own pockets. We have a massive – and largely privatized – military that kills and maims innocent civilians across the globe with almost no oversight. We have the most people living behind bars (by far) of any country in the world, continuing to grow with an immigration crackdown that has continued largely under the radar. And our electorate is largely tuned out, not even able to muster the ability to demand that the two main candidates for president present a clear vision of how to deal with climate change, something that looms as potentially the most dangerous thing we’ll deal with in our lifetimes.

Yet this year, in this state, we got the chance to take two small steps forward. Voter initiatives are often cynical attempts to con voters into voting against their own economic interests. I-502 was a reminder of why they serve a real purpose. It was a genuine effort – decades in the making – to demand that government stop its foolish and wasteful crusade to keep adults from enjoying a recreational drug that’s been used by humans for thousands of years. This Tuesday, we’ll make it official. Marijuana prohibition’s days are numbered. Change is coming.

And Washington is set to become the first state (hopefully with several others on Tuesday) to end marriage discrimination at the ballot box. If only people who were personally affected by either of these initiatives cared, they wouldn’t have a chance. But more and more people are beginning to recognize the value of standing up for the rights of others, even when they involve rights you don’t ever plan to exercise yourself.

Thanks to all the folks in both the I-502 campaign, the R-74 campaign, and everyone who’s worked over the years to bring reform to where we are today. These seem like small steps compared to some of the challenges we face, but these are big victories that can give us the confidence to know that positive change can happen. And as people who’ve fought for years for gay rights and drug law reform can tell you, it’s a long battle with many setbacks. Tuesday can’t come soon enough.