HorsesAss.Org

Clinton	Paul
97.7% probability of winning	2.3% probability of winning
Mean of 329 electoral votes	Mean of 209 electoral votes

Previous analyses shows that former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) are performing reasonably well (even if losing) against Hillary Clinton in a electoral college election that uses state polling. We might label Bush and Rubio as “top-tier” candidates, except that neither are leading in the G.O.P. primary. Still…they are a threat to Clinton.

Then there is the bottom tier. Certainly, Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) falls into this category based on his abysmal performance against Clinton (0.5% probability of winning to Clinton’s 99.5%).

Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) must also be relegated to the bottom of the Republican primary heap, although in fairness, he is doing much better than Walker. Not really a threat, though.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,668 times and Paul wins 2,332 times (including the 99 ties). Clinton received (on average) 329 to Paul’s 209 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.7% probability of winning and Paul would have a 2.3% probability of winning.

Paul is losing in FL, NC, VA, PA, MI, WI, IA, GA, NM and NV, and he is leading, but isn’t really doing that well in his home state of KY.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

It was very interesting to look at these maps [h/t] of how well you can raise a family or a single person on minimum wage. Looking at the second to last map, it’s nice to see that Washington’s wage is enough to let, at least some people in some circumstances, make a living.

That’s obviously the cheapest parts of the state. Even there, the state’s minimum wage isn’t enough to raise a family. So a push for a higher statewide wage seems pretty reasonable.

And here in the most expensive parts of the state it’s even more needed. Hopefully the Seattle and SeaTac minimum wages will have some relief here in King County. But it really should be statewide.

– Back to school, Seattle.

– I’m not a big comic books person, but seriously, DC, get your shit together.

– Ahead of public hearing, a couple ways to make the 520 Bridge plans better

– “A future in which eating out no longer involves waiters?” That’s not dining. That’s eating.

– I had heard of many of these 7 amazing places in Seattle you’ve probably never heard of but will have to check a few out (h/t to Central Cinema’s Facebook page).

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally meets this evening. Please join us in conversations about politics from local to international. New ideas and insights are welcomed!

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some folks stop by even earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Vancouver, WA, and Shelton chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets. And next Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including seventeen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

– Get your shit together, SPD.

– And second, we have this category of “our Christian values” that appears to be, on closer inspection, devoid of content and substance. It’s an ornate treasure chest with nothing inside.

– So let’s look at how our congresswoman and her fellow members of Congress got here today. Both houses of Congress overwhelmingly passed the Corker-Cardin bill, a.k.a. the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015, (Cathy McMorris Rodgers voted yes) which the president signed into law, that required Congress to come up with a veto-proof majority in order to scuttle the agreement with Iran. So basically they tied their own hands. It wasn’t easy, but they did it.

– It’s Pope Francis Who Should Apologize on Abortion

– The plutocrats and the social conservatives will probably be fine together.

Job 9:23
When a good person dies a sudden death, God sits back and laughs.

Discuss.

White House: Govt. shutdown ultimatum.

Mental Floss: 33 unusual old remedies.

Louder Crowder: Rouge guns.

Stephen Is Back:

• Stephen: Play Ball!
• Stephen: All you can Trump buffet
• Stephen does Joe
• Colbert’s late show premier was good.
• Stephen: Jeb says something nice about Obama
• Stephen: Jeb gets his Trump on

Scientists discover a new species of extinct humans.

Greenman: Palin on her dream job with Trump.

John Oliver on back to school.

Thom: Planned Parenthood and government shutdown.

The 2016 Clown Show:

• Maddow plays Gutterball: A dive to the bottom of 2016’s primary polling
• David Pakman thinks the SUSA poll showing Trump beating a Democrat is horseshit.
• Young Turks: Trump on Carly Fiorina: “Look at that face…would anyone vote for that?”
• David Pakman: Glenn Beck tries to convince Bill-O-The_Clown that Trump is a “progressive”.
• The Mexican Donald Trump
• Trump: The Negotiator:

• Chris Hayes: Trump rips Carson, Fiorina and Jindal in circular firing squad
• Sam Seder: Oh-oh, Christie. Mentor resigns as airline CEO
• Sam Seder: Ben Carson’s war on women’s innards
• David Pakman: Ben Carson gets his homophobia on

Thom: Big Business deploys a new weapon against workers.

Pelosi slams fed court ruling on GOP’s latest ObamaCare lawsuit.

Grace Para: Labor Day

9/11

• The White House commemorates the anniversary of 9/11
• Young Turks: What does “never forget” really mean?
• Sam Seder and Cliff Schecter: Remembering 9/11 and the aftermath.
• Obama’s 9/11 story

Farron Cousins: Environmentalists get tough on climate deniers.

The history of the Wingdings font.

David Pakman: Sarah Palin tells immigrants to “seek American”.

Mental Floss: Where did we get the name America?

Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb-Bomb Iran:

• Dick Cheney: Wrong then, Wrong Now
• Sam Seder: Louie Gohmert will “resign” to stop Iran deal
• Maddow: Republican anti-Iran deal plan falls apart despite rally spectacle
• FAUX News has been pushing war with Iran for a decade
• Sam Seder: You won’t believe why Donald Trump thinks Obama “failed” on the Iran deal
• Liberal Viewer: Ted Cruz explains “existentialism”
• PsychoSuperMom: The Iran Nuclear Deal Rag
• Young Turks: Anti-Iran deal rally draws few
• Sam Seder: Sarah Palin outdoes herself—insanity!
• Chris Hayes with Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Dick Cheney has lost his mind
• White House doubles down on 17 Sept deadline for Iran vote
• Young Turks: Republicans cannot stop the Iran nuclear deal

Uber drivers: Are they screwed?

Mark Fiore: Tragic Numbers.

Matthew Filipowicz: Police group claims protests against police violence causes more violence :

Thom: Clinton wants to overturn Citizen’s United.

Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Maddow: Obama’s big finish.

Farron Cousins: Teabaggers push Mitch McConnell into fights he cannot win

Reformed Whores: Back To School For Sarah Palin.

White House: West Wing Week.

Kim Davis is a Bigot:

• Larry Wilmore: County Jerk’s office
• Sam Seder: Huckabee staffer blocks Ted Cruz at Kim Davis rally
• Young Turks: Huckabee, “Yeah…this was OUR event…”
• Maddow: Ted Cruz boxed out of Kim Davis media stunt
• God wants you to vote for Kim Davis
• David Pakman: Mike Huckabee (and Ted Cruz) celebrate bigotry at Kim Davis rally
• Farron Cousins and Sam Seder: Bottom feeder Republicans Cling to lunatic Kim Davis

Matthew Filipowicz: What happens when scientists re-test denier’s science.

Thom: Are Republicans committing environmental treason?

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about money.

Daily Inspiration with Dick Cheney.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

OK, I get it. Jason Rantz is just going to bug me. For, like, ever. Fine. I’m still going to read his nonsense, so I can write posts like this on one of the last nice days we’ll have for a while. We’re all welcome?

Well, this is just excessive.

Did Joni Baler get a job with My Northwest? One sentence paragraphs are fine sometimes, but there’s no need for this one or the one in a little bit. In any event, we can all agree that the best opening paragraphs should leave you not having any idea what the subject of the story is going to be. So, um, good job. Also, I think this would be better if it ended with a colon.

When I first saw that the City of Seattle was going to temporarily take over a portion of a neighborhood, transforming the area into a park and recreation space, I knew it was made for vilifying by the Department of Transportation’s critics (me being one of them). But given it’s temporary, it seemed like a fun idea. Space for biking, live music, buskers, skateboarding, and even Zumba classes sounds like a fun afternoon if the weather allows for it.

Great. Sounds like fun. Let’s all go and have a hot dog or something.

But then I saw the details.

You can write longer paragraphs. Also, I think this would be better if it ended with a colon.

The city will close 46 blocks in the Central District on Saturday between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. Only limited local traffic will be allowed through.

It’s a Saturday, so light traffic. And it’ll be fine. You know I bet the Sounders and Mariners games that day will be worse for traffic, but I doubt we’ll have a nonsense piece about that.

I understand the desire to get people in the community to come out and enjoy the space, especially if we have another beautiful day, but 46 blocks is exceptionally excessive, especially because the city will hardly provide enough activities to cover the entire space in a meaningful way. And it’s hard to get to know your neighbors and the community within 46 blocks.

I haven’t looked at a map, but the square root of 46 is between 6 and 7. So between 6 and 7 blocks each way is worth a rant. Or it could be long and thin. How about you let people know so they can drive around if necessary? But for the rest of us, that sounds like fun. Maybe I’ll walk there or take a bus.

The real reason they’re occupying so much space is to push bicycling; they’ll even be raffling off 10 free bikes at Garfield Playground, in partnership with a great local company, Bike Works. We’re about to lose out on the great Seattle weather, which is when it’s most undesirable to bike around the city (turns out, it’s onerous and can be dangerous to ride bikes up and down hills in the rain). So they’re making one last, desperate attempt to push bicycling before the weather turns.

Is it really so horrible that they’re giving away bikes on a nice day? This is pretty weak sauce. This paragraph is also all over the place: Bike Works is great but the city is ruining stuff by working with them. The weather is great, but it might not be for ever.

Anyway as someone who has taken plenty of rainy Seattle bike rides, they aren’t the best case, but it’s mostly fine. Usually Seattle is more misty than rainy. Get some lights and reflective clothing, and be careful. Anyway, nobody says it has to be your only form of transportation. All the forms of transportation get worse when it’s raining.

Ultimately, the concept of closing down communities for these types of events is a good one; but this is way too big and poorly thought out. If they’re expecting people from out of the neighborhood to come by (and I’m assuming they are, unless the City is now in the business of catering only to the select neighborhoods in the area they actually care about), one has to wonder where they’ll park, given they just close 46 blocks-worth of space for cars. Oh, they expect you to hop on a bus (or bike) with your young kids and spouse.

The end??? The possibility that people going to the Central District might take the bus with their spouse or kids is that strange? I don’t even understand why that’s a complaint. People literally paid him money to write that it would be odd for people to take a bus with their kids. I don’t have kids, but there are plenty on pretty much any bus when it isn’t rush hour. Has he never taken a bus home after a ballgame? Fucking try taking your kids on the bus before being an asshole.

I’m also betting there will be parking in the CD on a Saturday since there are plenty of lots. Fine, you know what, you win: I looked at the map. You’ll be fine. Now I’m going to enjoy what’s left of a nice evening.

– No charges in the Pasco shooting, but at least there will be a state review.

– You can’t judge a person by their parents, and 1927 was a long time ago. But geez, Donald Trump’s father the Klan member who fought with the police seems like a problem.

– I still, still support Seattle teachers.

– And the Menzies Aviation workers. I couldn’t find many articles about it, but you can follow the latest at #SeaTacOnStrike

– Serena Williams on top of being the best at tennis is the best, just in general.

You knew the GOP would run someone against Patty Murray, and there’s worse they could do than Chris Vance. I’m not sure that I’d go so far as to call him a sacrificial lamb, but it’s tough to see his path to victory. As Andrew mentions in the linked post, he has lost for Federal and statewide offices.

If Patty Murray could hang on 6 years ago, the seat is probably safe in a presidential year with Trump or another Bush at the helm. But I try not to forecast these things, so who knows?

Also, color me unimpressed with debt as a central campaign issue. (a) It’s not really as big a deal as political insiders make it out to be. (b) Deficits have gone down every year under Obama. Deficit and debt aren’t the same, but those lower deficits and surpluses will lead to debt being even less of an issue politically and policy-wise. (c) Much of our debt is due to wars and tax cuts happening concurrently under politicians Vance supported. (d) Much of the rest of the debt is due to the economic collapse brought on or exacerbated by GOP policies. So it’s tough to see how an anti-debt platform translates into votes.

– Does anyone buy the Cheneys’ books?

– I still support Seattle teachers.

– Being pro-a-war-that-won’t-happen probably isn’t a terrible political position: You don’t get the down side of actually having to deal with the consequences of a war, and if something does go bad (I don’t think it will) you get to I told you so everyone. But wanting to go to war with Iran kind of makes the people advocating for it seem like the worst.

– Move Seattle seems pretty good.

– Lord, send me a sign

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and polite conversation over a drink at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some folks stop by even earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle on Tuesday night? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. The Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet on Tuesday. Wednesday the Bellingham chapter meets. And the Bremerton, Spokane, and Kent chapters meet on Thursday.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

Clinton	Rubio
64.7% probability of winning	35.3% probability of winning
Mean of 280 electoral votes	Mean of 258 electoral votes

Sen. Marco Rubio is one of three major G.O.P. candidates out of Florida (along with Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee). This should provide him with a general election advantage of providing a strong showing in this important swing state. The most recent Florida poll, taken in the second week of August, has Rubio leading Hillary Clinton by +12.

In fact, Rubio leads in the most recent polling in the other two classic swing states of Ohio (+2) and Pennsylvania (+7). It hasn’t always been that way. For the past year, Clinton has generally held solid leads in all three swing states, only to lose all three leads over the summer:

So how is it that Clinton can be behind in these three swing states and still lead? It’s because she leads in Wisconsin (+12), Virginia (+1), Texas (+1), Louisiana (+3) and Georgia (+3). Virginia is the only state with a recent poll. Of states with older polls, Wisconsin is at least plausible, but Texas, Louisiana and Georgia seem unlikely to swing blue in 2016.

Clearly, much more polling is needed to get a feel for where the race is at. Clinton has certainly lost ground over the summer, and this is probably a function of two things. First, voters are familiarizing themselves with, and getting used to the idea of voting for Marco Rubio. Second, Clinton has had a terrible summer from the perspective of national popularity. For most of the summer, what news we’ve heard about Clinton, has been largely negative.

The Clinton campaign has been disconnected from a general election audience, as her campaign focuses on another important aspect of the race. They have spent the summer quietly locking up superdelegates, almost guaranteeing her the Democratic nomination. The trade-off for a lousy summer is that the campaign will be freed up early to focus on the care and feeding of general election voters while the Republicans bludgeon their way through an unappealing primary.

Republicans have a very different nomination structure, they don’t have superdelegates, and the dynamics of their over-populated primary are entirely different, so that campaigns have spent the summer attempting to maximize positive news cycles (or, in the case of Donald Trump, positive or negative news cycles). This has allowed the top contenders to “catch-up” to Clinton and, given some more recent polling, possibly top her.

For the polling we have now, however, Clinton holds a thin lead. After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton won 64,668 and Rubio won 35,332 times (including the 1,511 ties). Clinton received (on average) 280 to Rubio’s 258 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 64.7% probability of winning and Rubio would have a 35.3% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

True story: the original inspiration for HA Bible Study was then University of Florida quarterback Tim Tebow and his famous eye-black bible citations. I thought, wouldn’t it be funny to randomly cite less familiar scripture—you know, say, 2 Kings 2:23-24 rather than Philippians 4:13—and our weekly HA Bible Study was born!

And so in honor of Tebow being cut from my beloved Philadelphia Eagles yesterday, I offer this extra bit of bible wisdom for him to ponder:

Jeremiah 49:16
Thy terribleness hath deceived thee, and the pride of thine heart, O thou that dwellest in the clefts of the rock, that holdest the height of the hill: though thou shouldest make thy nest as high as the eagle, I will bring thee down from thence, saith the Lord.

Discuss.

Genesis 6:1-4
And it came to pass, when men began to multiply on the face of the earth, and daughters were born unto them, that the sons of God saw the daughters of men that they were fair; and they took them wives of all which they chose.

And the LORD said, My spirit shall not always strive with man, for that he also is flesh: yet his days shall be an hundred and twenty years.

There were giants in the earth in those days; and also after that, when the sons of God came in unto the daughters of men, and they bare children to them, the same became mighty men which were of old, men of renown.

Discuss.