I’m going on vacation pretty soon. I plan to keep up the contingent of nonsense Open Threads, and then hopefully when I get back, to start posting more.
Anyway, do you have any recommendations for light summer reading? Beach read or airplane. I have this on hold from the library, but I’m not sure it’s going to arrive in time.
Please join us tonight for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.
We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening over the next week. Tonight, the Federal Way, Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. Finally, on Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.
There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.
Not sure why, but this this thread seems to have been eaten. Here we go again: I enjoyed Seafair, but would prefer it not have the Blue Angels. I also took a tour of one of the Navy ships. It was interesting, but I’d prefer to live in a world where we didn’t have any.
Deuteronomy 32:42
I will make mine arrows drunk with blood, and my sword shall devour flesh; and that with the blood of the slain and of the captives, from the beginning of revenges upon the enemy.
Discuss.
Jimmy Dore: WA-7-CD progressive candidate Pramila Jayapal gets Bernie’s blessing.
Thom: Most disturbing climate change events we have seen yet.
The Devil and Stephen Colbert:
Jimmy Dore: The story (and meta-story) behind the Iran cash drop story.
The Drumpf Implosion:
Hillary gets psyched for the Olympics.
Jimmy Dore: Bill-O-the-Clown on the silver lining in slavery.
Stephen: Cartoon Hillary on her disappearance.
Thom: The Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Seriously Ugly!
MinutePhysics: How long is a sun day?
Jimmy Dore: Political jokes of the week.
Roy Zimmerman: “Burn, Goody Clinton”:
Young Turks: Kansas proves Republican policies don’t work.
G.O.P. Voter Suppression Laws Get Stuck Down:
Thom: Is Congress stalking Greenpeace with Subpoenas?
Can a third-party candidate ever become President?
Jimmy Kimmel interviews Morgan Freeman narrating a Hillary Clinton campaign video.
Slate: Corey Lewandowski is a complete disaster on CNN.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
I like Bob Ferguson and his work against Comcast being assholes. But I’m not sure Batman is the best analogy. Bruce Wayne really should be using his money on other things if he wants the best return on investment. Ferguson is pretty much doing best for the customers. I’d rather read about Batman (no offense, Bob) but live in a state with Ferguson as AG (no offense Bruce).
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There have been eight new polls released since last week’s analysis, including PA, VA, NV, a pair in GA and a pair in AZ. The previous analysis had Hillary Clinton with a 97.8% probability of winning and election then. Donald Trump had a 2.2% of winning.
This week, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,010 times and Trump wins 2,990 times (including the 459 ties). Clinton received (on average) 309 to Trump’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.0% probability of winning and Trump would have a 3.0% probability of winning.
There aren’t many changes with only eight polls in six states, but a few are worth noting.
In Arizona, three polls have aged out and there are two new polls, one with Clinton up +2 and the other with Trump up +7.5. The net is a small bump for Trump. This is similar in Georgia, where two new polls (Trump +0.2 and Trump +3) join an existing poll (Trump + 2) to boast Trump’s chances in the state.
We have one new poll in Nevada (Clinton +1) that, combined with two existing polls (Trump +5 and Clinton +4), bumps Clinton’s chances. Trump went from 68% probability down to a 59% probability. Essentially, Nevada is a tie.
Finally, Virgina has one new poll (Trump +4) with three existing polls (Clinton +5, Clinton +7, Trump +0.4). Clinton’s probability has dropped slightly from 94% to 82%.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Were the primary election results everything you hoped for? I’m glad in the 7th, we’ll get 2 fairly liberal Democratic candidates. We’ll wait to see what two. I was hoping for a better turnout for Angie Marx, but maybe it was inevitable when a legislator stepped in. In any event, more results will come in over then next few weeks.
It’s election night in Washington state. So fill out your ballot, drop it off in the nearest ballot box, and then join us for an evening of electoral erudition and political pontification at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.
We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Long Beach, and West Seattle chapters also meet. The Lakewood and Bellingham chapters meet on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.
There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including nineteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.
Hey, turn in your primary ballot. Postmarked or dropped off by tomorrow. If you’re in King County, you can find your drop off locations here. But for goodness sake, please vote. The trolls here get a vote, so at least cancel one of their dumb asses out.
Ephesians 6:5
Slaves, obey your earthly masters with respect and fear, and with sincerity of heart, just as you would obey Christ.
Discuss.
Colbert: Political week in review.
Young Turks: GOP loses it over Tim Kaine’s lapel pin.
Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.
Glass Ceiling Broken:
The actor that every politician needs at rallies.
Mental Floss: 39 facts about the middle ages.
How a city’s economy depends on airports.
Young Turks: Republicans go BONKERS over Bradley Cooper (Sniper) at DNC.
What FAUX News aired Instead of the speech by fallen Muslim soldier’s father.
White House: West Wing Week.
Kimmel: Trump and Clinton puppets.
The Drumpfsputin Affair:
Seth Meyers with Lenny Kravits on the Clintons.
Young Turks: Voter ID laws struck down.
Stephen: What’s the nicest thing you can say about your opposing party’s candidate.
How did the U.S. end up with a 2-party system?
Young Turks: All cops walk in Freddie Gray case.
Lawrence O’Donnell: Capt. Khan’s parents remember their son
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
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Since the previous analysis, ten new polls have been released. Additionally, I fixed the Vermont poll that had Sec. Hillary Clinton’s and Donald Trump’s numbers reversed. As it happens a more current poll for Vermont was released.
Only a couple of the new polls were still in the field this week, but many of them were in the field last week, so lets call this the Post-RNC, Pre-DNC benchmark.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,843 times and Trump wins 2,157 times (including the 223 ties). Clinton received (on average) 312 to Trump’s 226 electoral votes. The results suggest that, in an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.8% probability of winning and Trump would have a 2.2% probability of winning.
Little has changed from the previous analysis. The most noticeable is Florida, which has decreased from a 56% chance for Clinton to a 37% chance. This reflects two older polls “aging out” and one new poll added. Trump leads in two of the three current polls. Here is the polling history, which makes Trump’s lead seem plausible:
The other noticeable change is New Hampshire’s shift from blue to red. An older ARG poll “aged out” and a new NH Journal poll has been added. The NH Journal poll has a surprisingly large +9.4% for Trump. The state has been close, but perhaps something about Trump has strongly resonated with NH voters. The polling history suggests this new poll is an outlier–Trump has not led in any of the previous 26 polls in NH, and suddenly he is up by nearly double digits.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Man, the last 2 days of the convention were also pretty great. Obama doing a greatest hits. Clinton doing a lot from her stump speech, but also some smart funny anti-Trump stuff. I thought listening to it that “No Donald, you don’t” was her in grandmother mode.
… I guess I should have checked the home page before I started writing the open thread. Oh well.
History will be made tonight, so talk about it….
6:02: Washington delegation has been raising hell all week
More WA delegates protest TPP and other causes on night of @HillaryClinton acceptance speech pic.twitter.com/U7Lt8dAOJH
— Jim Brunner (@Jim_Brunner) July 29, 2016
Tell me again how we need to keep violent people out of the US https://t.co/NARjdXMQI1
— Lee Rosenberg (@Lee_Rosenberg) July 29, 2016
It seems like a good idea for Ds to welcome Rs and conservatives who are willing to step up and admit the GOP nominee is a madman.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) July 29, 2016
Abdul-Jabbar: “I’m Michael Jordan and I’m with Hillary…I said that of course because I know Donald Trump couldn’t tell the difference"
— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) July 29, 2016
Read about Rev. William Barber, who just finished speaking at the #DemConvention: https://t.co/cUURDlTfFu https://t.co/rRTKFd5u0d
— POLITICO (@politico) July 29, 2016
Powerful speech by Captain Khan. Most scathing indictment of Trump.
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) July 29, 2016
Omigod, what a devastating critique of Trump from Khizr Khan, father of fallen Muslim veteran. #DemsInPhilly
— (((Goldy))) (@GoldyHA) July 29, 2016
6:28: Man…General Allen could be a voice-over actor for any general anywhere!
Comparing the two conventions, it's clear that Democrats are now the party of patriotic America, the future America, the real America
— Markos Moulitsas (@markos) July 29, 2016
7:30: Huh…Did you notice Hillary DIDN’T lightly grope her daughter?
7:39: “He has taken ” the GOP ” a long way, from ‘Morning in America’ to ‘Midnight in America’.”
She's never going to be as soaring an orator as BHO or as intimate as BC, but she's killing it, imo
— Clara Jeffery (@ClaraJeffery) July 29, 2016
"I accept your nomination for president of the United States!” —Hillary https://t.co/3Ffpf7W4Vz
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) July 29, 2016
Clinton: "Donald Trump says he wants to make America great again – well, he could start by actually making things in America again."
— Sabrina Siddiqui (@SabrinaSiddiqui) July 29, 2016
“Imagine him in the Oval Office…a man you can bait with a tweet is not a man you can trust with nuclear weapons."
— Mike Warren (@MichaelRWarren) July 29, 2016
Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!