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VP Debate Edition of Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottleThe VP debate is tonight, so the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally will start early. Please join us for an evening of debate cheers and jeers over over a pint.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. For the debate, we’ll start at 6:00 pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Long Beach, and West Seattle chapters also meet. The Lakewood and Bellingham chapters meet on Wednesday.
On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Poll Analysis: Clinton surges post-debate

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Clinton
Trump
92.5% probability of winning
7.5% probability of winning
Mean of 300 electoral votes
Mean of 238 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

We have now had a few days for post-debate polls to trickle out. My previous analysis, four days ago, was almost entirely pre-debate polls. It showed Clinton with a 79.2% probability of winning the election with, on average, 288 electoral votes.

There have been about 20 or so post-debate state head-to-head polls released, mostly in competitive states. The results confirm the general wisdom that Clinton gained the edge from the first debate.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 92,456 times and Trump wins 7,544 times (including the 1,007 ties). Clinton received (on average) 300 to Trump’s 238 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 92.5% probability of winning and Trump would have a 7.5% probability of winning.

A couple of states showed some interesting changes:

In Colorado one poll aged out and we got two new polls today that both have Clinton up by +11%. This has moved the probability from 51.4% for Trump to 83.7% for Clinton. The state is still quite close, but the magnitude of Clinton’s lead in two polls suggest that Clinton now has the advantage.

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16colorado

The story is similar in Florida one poll aged out, and three new polls were released, all with Clinton leading. Clinton’s leads, however, are smaller at 4%, +0.2% and 5%. Clinton is leading in 6 of the 10 current polls. Trump had a 60.6% probability of taking Florida 4 days ago, now Clinton is up with a 62.9% probability. The state is still mighty close!

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16florida

Trump gains a bit in Iowa, not because of any new polls—there have been none since the debate. Rather one poll aged out. Trump leads in 2 of the 3 current Iowa polls.

Nevada gains two new polls with Clinton up by +6% and +1%. As a result Trump’s probability of winning of 66.8% four days ago has shrunk to 47.6%. This is, basically, a tie.

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16nevada

New Hampshire is over-polled because of a competitive Senate race. We lost one poll and gained two new ones in 4 days with Clinton up +6% and +7%. Clinton’s chances go up a bit to a 99.1% probability of winning today.

We have one new poll in New Jersey for a total of 2 polls. This one has Clinton up 6.4%, and so Clinton moves from a 78.3% probability to a 92.5% probability of taking the state.

In New Mexico, one old poll was replaced by a new (but small) poll that has Clinton up +4%. The previous poll had her at +9%. As a result, Clinton’s chances have dropped from 99.4% to 77.3% probability of winning the state now. The polling history suggests that Clinton is very likely to take New Mexico:

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16new-mexico

Two new polls, and the loss of an old poll in North Carolina have strengthened Clinton’s tenuous hold on the state. She now has lead in five consecutive NC polls, but the margins are small (+1%, +3%, +1%, +2.6% and +1%). Her chances have gone from 52.2% to 56.7%. Still, pretty much a tie.

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16north-carolina

In Pennsylvania we lose two polls and gain one new one. This has tightened the race slightly, but Clinton still has a 94.9% probability of taking the state. The polling history does suggest a tightening of the race, but Clinton leads the last 5 polls by small margins (+4%, +3%, +1%, +2%, +2%).

clintontrump03sep16-03oct16pennsylvania

Virginia loses one poll and gains two new ones. Four days ago, Clinton had a 99.7% probability of winning. Today, she takes all but 28 of the 100,000 simulated elections.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 03-Oct-2015 to 03-Oct-2016, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ). As we’ve seen before, Clinton is on the move upward, after hitting a “low” that still had her most likely winning the election.

Note that the polls have yet to “speak” to Donald Trump’s other problems that arose after the debate—his 3am tweet about an Hispanic model (Alicia Machado) and her non-existent “sextape”, Trump’s own soft-core porn video, Trump’s suggestion that his opponent is cheating on her spouse, Trump’s partial 1995 tax forms showing over $900 million losses, the Trump Foundation’s potential legal problems, his badly-stated comment about Vets with PTSD, and a bunch of high profile newspaper non-endorsements. If these issues affect the polls, we’ll see the effects over the next week or two.

Of course, things may not continue to favor Clinton. Wednesday is supposedly the “October Surprise” that will un-do her.

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

HA Bible Study: Genesis 11:10-24

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Genesis 11:10-24
Two years after the flood, when Shem was one hundred, he had a son named Arpachshad. He had more children and died at the age of six hundred. This is a list of his descendants:

When Arpachshad was thirty-five, he had a son named Shelah. Arpachshad had more children and died at the age of four hundred thirty-eight.

When Shelah was thirty, he had a son named Eber. Shelah had more children and died at the age of four hundred thirty-three.

When Eber was thirty-four, he had a son named Peleg. Eber had more children and died at the age of four hundred sixty-four.

When Peleg was thirty, he had a son named Reu. Peleg had more children and died at the age of two hundred thirty-nine.

When Reu was thirty-two he had a son named Serug. Reu had more children and died at the age of two hundred thirty-nine.

When Serug was thirty, he had a son named Nahor. Serug had more children and died at the age of two hundred thirty.

When Nahor was twenty-nine, he had a son named Terah. Nahor had more children and died at the age of one hundred forty-eight.

Discuss.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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A voter registration day message from the Late Show.

Jimmy Dore: War Criminal George W Bush is having a great time with paint.

Obama: Votes matter.

The 2016 G.O.P./Alt-Right Shit Show:

Jon Batiste: Hey, White people!

Adam Ruins Everything: Why a wall won’t work:

White House: West Wing Week.

Debate is What Catches De Fish:

Stephen: Elizabeth Warren rips Wells Fargo’s CEO a new one.

John Oliver: 2016 Scandals.

Olbermann: How to gauge Clinton’s lead over Drumpf.

Here is how they try to suppress your vote.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: Clinton’s lead holds for now

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Clinton
Trump
79.2% probability of winning
20.8% probability of winning
Mean of 288 electoral votes
Mean of 250 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Since my previous analysis, nearly 50 new state head-to-head polls have been released in the match-up between Sec. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. (Actually, many more state head-to-head polls have been released, but they are based on internet samples, so they don’t qualify by the rules for poll inclusion.) The polls were all taken before and just up to the first debate on Monday night. Subsequent analysis will reveal what effect, if any, the first debate may have had on the race.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 79,245 times and Trump wins 20,755 times (including the 1,915 ties). Clinton received (on average) 288 to Trump’s 250 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 79.2% probability of winning and Trump would have a 20.8% probability of winning. This is a tiny bump in probability (+0.3%) for Clinton relative to last week.

In Colorado, four new polls have been added that give a tiny bump to Trump. He went from a 48.8% chance last week to a 51.4% chance now. The state is, essentially, tied. The polling history, suggests a real change in Trump’s favor over the past three months.

clintontrump29aug16-29sep16colorado

New polls in Maine confirm what we already knew. Clinton would likely win now, but CD-1 would go to Clinton and CD-2 would go to Trump.

A new poll in Minnesota brings some certainty to that state. Clinton went from an 88% probability of taking the state last week to 95% this week.

We finally have our first polling for Nebraska’s congressional districts. NE-1 and 3 are solidly Trump. NE-2, which went for Obama in 2008, doesn’t look like it will split off from the rest of the state this election, with an 84% probability of going to Trump right now.

This week we gain three new North Carolina polls and lose two older ones. The three new polls favor Clinton, so the state has gone from 68.7% probability for Trump last week to a 52.2% chance for Clinton this week. North Carolina is tied.

clintontrump29aug16-29sep16north-carolina

With the loss of two, and the gain of three Ohio polls, Trump edges up from 90.3% to a 94.6% chance of taking the state.

Washington finally gets a new poll, and it is surprisingly close. The evidence suggests Clinton would only take the state now with an 87.7% probability. Even so, Trump has yet to win a Washington state poll.

clintontrump29aug16-29sep16washington

Finally, Wisconsin loses two old polls and gains a new one. The race looks surprisingly close with Clinton dropping from an 98.4% to a 90.8% chance of taking the state. As with Washington, Trump has yet to win a Wisconsin poll. The race does seem to tighten up in recent weeks.

clintontrump29aug16-29sep16wisconsin

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

oPEN THREAd

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I know the post-debate analysis has been done already. But I just want to highlight this that Trump said.

And when it comes to stop-and-frisk, you know, you’re talking about takes guns away. Well, I’m talking about taking guns away from gangs and people that use them. And I don’t think — I really don’t think you disagree with me on this, if you want to know the truth.

There were some people who called out in real time how shitty it was that he was telling a woman how she really feels. And yeah.

But the other part of the dynamic is white people talking to other white people. One says something racist and the other person rejects it. It can be a joke, or some “observation” or a policy proposal. And the other person doesn’t agree. But the first person insists that the other person approves of their joke or observation or policy proposal. No matter how much they say they don’t.

This is the same dynamic of people yelling about PC culture.

Live Blogging the First Presidential Debate

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Okay…the debate is about to begin. Have at it in the comment threads. I’ll post my nuggets of wisdom from the folks at Drinking Liberally and from Twitter.

[6:05] Opening topic: reducing income inequality in a period of low unemployment.
Clinton: Invest, invest, invest.
Drumpf: CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!

Trump claims that U.S. doesn’t have the largest, most sophisticated manufacturing facilities in the world. Ummm…Mr. Trump, ever hear of Boeing’s plant in Everett? Largest in the world.

[6:13] Drumpf, “The U.S. doesn’t know what it is doing” in manufacturing. Unbelievable!

[6:14] Drumpf is starting to fall apart already, with his little aside to Clinton.

[6:15] Drumpf’s import tax bring to mind Bill Murray’s famous SNL lounge skit: “Trade Wars / If they had made wars / Let there be trade wars / ooohhh oh yeah.

[6:19] Again and again, Drumpf tells us what we “have to do” without any concrete proposals.

[6:20] Clinton successfully holds off Drumpf’s attempt at disruption.

[6:21] Hello? Moderators?

[6:26]: Drumpf completely LOST IT! “No wonder you have been fighting ISIS your entire life.” ISIS didn’t even exist when she last held a government position.

[6:33]: Drumpf has an audit conspiracy.

[6:39]: “We spent 6 trillion dollars in the middle east” and we didn’t even take all of their oil….

[6:40]: Clinton may have used a private email server, but at least she paid her IT subcontractors.

[6:43]: Drumpf has calmed down, but is having trouble focusing.

[6:44]: Drumpf things Hillary is afraid to say “law and order”. WTF?!?

[6:48]: Drumpf is rattling off endorsements. What’s next, poll numbers?

[6:50]: Donald Trump wants to take guns away…from dark-skinned people.

[6:52]: Clinton makes a passionate argument for justice reform. Trump’s response, “she won’t law and order!” and “stop and frisk!”

[7:00]: Dear @realDonaldTrump Obama produced the standard Hawaii birth certificate in 2008.

[7:12]: DJT uses “Cyber” incorrectly. Clearly new to the word. Norbert Weiner spins in his grave.

[7:15]:Drumpf blames Obama/Clinton for leaving Iraq. You know…the withdrawal that was set up by Bush’s failure to come to an agreement with Iraq.

[7:22]: At the end of a crazy, defensive tyrade, “I have better judgement than her.”

[7:24]: Trump is sniffling a lot. Is he well enough to be President?????????

[7:26]: Clinton’s “caviler attitude about nuclear weapons” segment was potent.

[7:27]: Holy shit. @realDonaldTrump understanding of defending other countries amounts to gangster movies.

[7:33]: Clinton’s strategy: say something clear. Let Drumpf babble.

[7:35]: No shit on Clinton’s statement on stamina. Look at her freaking schedule while SOS! Brutal travel and meeting schedule.

Open Thread

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Did anyone else go to the Angle Lake Station? I skipped the opening ceremony, but did check it out later in the day. It’s a lot more isolated than any of the other stations. Just walking around it looked like it was mostly hotels and a federal detention center that I didn’t know existed. I guess that’s probably good for future growth. Maybe.

I’d prefer a Graham Street Station (or other places where it’s a long distance between stations) to that. But I guess the goal is to get further and further South. I’m always happy with more light rail, so it was pretty neat.

Also, a lot of parking.

Debate Watching Parties and the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally

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DLBottle

The first presidential debate will take place Monday between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. There are a few liberal debate-watching parties you might want to join. Here are the ones I know about:

And on Tuesday, plan on joining us for our regularly-scheduled Drinking Liberally. We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. We start around 8:00pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle on Tuesday? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. On Tuesday, the Tri-Cities chapter also meets. On Wednesday, the Burien and North Spokane chapters meet. The Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday. And the following Monday, the Yakima and South Bellevue chapters meet.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Roll Call: Government shutdown looms.

Stephen with Michelle Obama: Imitating Barack.

Keith Olbermann interviews Press Sec. Josh Earnest on the debate and the stakes of the race: PART I and PART II.

Kimmel on presidential debate topics.

The 2016 Racist, Sexist, Homophobic, All-Around-Great-Hater Clown Show:

Adam Ruins Everything: Trophy hunting can be good for animals?

Samantha Bee: Chief Executive fear mongerer: PART I and PART II

Kimmel: Unnecessary Censorship—Obama Edition.

Stephen with Michelle Obama on political spouses.

Hillary Makes History:

Secret Service won’t let Stephen see FLOTUS.

Thom: Open source voting explained.

Samantha Bee: The week in HUH? Super delegate-lobbyists.

Susie Sampson: Picking between gays and Muslims.

Mel Brooks pranks Obama.

Thom: Here’s who’s being eliminated from the voter roles.

Mental Floss: 31 weird discontinued products.

John Oliver: The refugee crisis.

Sam Seder: OMG! Christie knew about Bridgegate.

This Week in Cops Killing Black People:

White House: West Wing Week.

Jimmy Dore: Reince Priebus worn out after months of turd-polishing:

Sam Seder: NC Rep. says Charlotte protesters “Hate White people because White people are successful & they’re not”.

Taco Truck Guy on typical Mexicans.

Bill Maher with a New Rule: Bring civility back to politics.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: Senate still red, but Democrats chip away

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
29.5% prob. of a majority
70.5% prob. of a majority
Mean of 49 seats
Mean of 51 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The Democrats would still be unlikely to take the Senate in an election held today. Nevertheless the Republicans have lost ground since the previous analysis. Ten days ago Democrats had an 11.8% chance of taking the Senate. Today their chances are nearly 30%.

After 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 4934 times, there were 24613 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 70453 times. Democrats have a 29.5% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 70.5% probability of controlling the Senate. This analysis assumes that the Vice President will be a Democrat.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 29.5%, Republicans control the Senate 70.5%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 49.0 ( 1.0)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 51.0 ( 1.0)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 49 (47, 51)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 51 (49, 53)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 35
  • Independent seats w/no election: one
  • Republican seats w/no election: 30
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: nine
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 20
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: four

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 43
Strong Democrat 3 46
Leans Democrat 3 3 49
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 49
Weak Republican 1 1 1 51
Leans Republican 0 0 50
Strong Republican 7 50
Safe Republican 43

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample % % Dem Rep/th>
State @ polls size Dem Rep % wins % wins
AL 0 0 (0) (100)
AK 0 0 (0) (100)
AZ 2 1389 45.2 54.8 0.5 99.5
AR 2 1142 36.9 63.1 0.0 100.0
CA 3 1966 62.8 37.2 100.0 0.0
CO 3 1377 55.0 45.0 99.5 0.5
CT 1 872 61.7 38.3 100.0 0.0
FL 8 4619 46.6 53.4 0.0 100.0
GA 6 2849 40.5 59.5 0.0 100.0
HI 0 0 (100) (0)
ID 0 0 (0) (100)
IL 2 1023 52.0 48.0 81.1 18.9
IN 1 504 52.4 47.6 77.2 22.8
IA 4 2294 44.4 55.6 0.0 100.0
KS 1 495 40.4 59.6 0.2 99.8
KY 1& 440 43.2 56.8 2.1 97.9
LA 1 794 34.6 65.4 0.0 100.0
MD 2 1019 68.6 31.4 100.0 0.0
MO 3 2530 47.2 52.8 2.6 97.4
NV 5 2843 48.3 51.7 9.3 90.7
NH 6 3450 49.8 50.2 43.5 56.5
NY 1 671 72.1 27.9 100.0 0.0
NC 9 6027 48.8 51.2 9.0 91.0
ND 0 0 (0) (100)
OH 7 4656 42.0 58.0 0.0 100.0
OK 0 0 (0) (100)
OR 1 403 55.1 44.9 92.5 7.5
PA 7 4143 50.8 49.2 78.3 21.7
SC 1& 941 38.4 61.6 0.0 100.0
SD 0 0 (0) (100)
UT 1& 678 27.9 72.1 0.0 100.0
VT 1 544 62.3 37.7 100.0 0.0
WA 1& 430 60.5 39.5 99.9 0.1
WI 6 3830 55.2 44.8 100.0 0.0

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

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