Obama | Romney |
95.9% probability of winning | 4.1% probability of winning |
Mean of 303 electoral votes | Mean of 235 electoral votes |
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney with a 93.4% to a 6.6% probability of winning an election now. Obama led 294 to 244 electoral votes
Today’s polls through about noon were…
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
CA | LA Times | 15-Oct | 21-Oct | 1440 | 2.9 | 54 | 40 | O+14 |
CO | ARG | 25-Oct | 28-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
FL | PPP | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 687 | 3.7 | 49 | 48 | O+1 |
FL | CNN/OR | 25-Oct | 28-Oct | 770 | 3.5 | 48 | 48 | tie |
MD | Baltimore Sun | 20-Oct | 23-Oct | 801 | 3.5 | 55 | 36 | O+19 |
MA | UNH | 24-Oct | 28-Oct | 583 | 4.1 | 52 | 38 | O+14 |
MN | Mason-Dixon | 23-Oct | 25-Oct | 800 | 3.5 | 47 | 44 | O+3 |
MO | Mason-Dixon | 23-Oct | 25-Oct | 625 | 4.0 | 41 | 54 | R+13 |
NE | Wiese Res | 23-Oct | 25-Oct | 679 | 3.8 | 40 | 54 | R+14 |
NH | PPP | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 874 | 3.3 | 49 | 47 | O+2 |
NJ | Philadelphia Inquirer | 23-Oct | 25-Oct | 601 | 4.0 | 51 | 41 | O+10 |
NM | Research & Polling | 23-Oct | 25-Oct | 662 | 4.0 | 50 | 41 | O+9 |
NY | SurveyUSA | 23-Oct | 25-Oct | 554 | 4.1 | 61.7 | 32.7 | O+28.9 |
NC | Elon | 21-Oct | 26-Oct | 1238 | 2.8 | 45.4 | 45.3 | O+0.1 |
NC | Rasmussen | 25-Oct | 25-Oct | 500 | 4.5 | 46 | 52 | R+6 |
OH | Rasmussen | 28-Oct | 28-Oct | 750 | 4.0 | 48 | 50 | R+2 |
OH | Gravis Marketing | 27-Oct | 27-Oct | 730 | 3.6 | 50 | 49 | O+1 |
OH | PPP | 26-Oct | 28-Oct | 718 | 3.7 | 51 | 47 | O+4 |
OH | Cincinnati Enquirer | 18-Oct | 23-Oct | 1015 | 3.1 | 49 | 49 | tie |
PA | Philadelphia Inquirer | 23-Oct | 25-Oct | 600 | 4.0 | 49 | 43 | O+6 |
TN | Middle Tennessee State U | 16-Oct | 21-Oct | 609 | 4.0 | 59 | 34 | O+25 |
VA | Gravis Marketing | 26-Oct | 26-Oct | 625 | 3.9 | 48 | 48 | tie |
VA | Washington Post | 22-Oct | 26-Oct | 1228 | 3.5 | 51 | 47 | O+4 |
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 95,877 times and Romney wins 4,123 times (including the 363 ties). Obama received (on average) 303 to Romney’s 235 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 95.9% probability of winning and Romney would have a 4.1% probability of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 29 Oct 2011 to 29 Oct 2012, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
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