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Socialism in your own back yard!

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Wow. This evening’s King County ballet drop has just made Seattle City Council Position 2 race much more interesting!

Socialist Kshama Sawant has just taken the lead over the formerly unbeatable Richard Conlin. The current tally is 79,751 votes (49.91%) for Sawant to 79,710 votes (49.88%) for Conlin. That’s a 14 41 vote edge for Sawant.

We still have some way to go (14 more days) until the election results must be certified by King County. If I am reading the spreadsheet correctly, 26,878 (or about 14.4%) of the ballots remain to be counted in this race. The trend has favored Sawant in the later ballots.

“First they came with a statue, and I said nothing….“

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottleA week after the election, we still have a few nail-biters in Seatac, Seattle and Virginia. So please join us tonight for an evening of electoral prognostication over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday evening at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00pm.

Initiatives….




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week.

Tonight there are meetings of the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters. On Wednesday, the Bellingham chapter meets. On Thursday the Bremerton chapter meets. And next Monday, the Aberdeen, Yakima and Olympia chapters meet.

With 211 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon, and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter meeting near you.

Democrat Mark Herring just took the lead in the VA A.G. race

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Almost a week has passed since the general election. One of the more interesting set of races was in Virginia, in which the Governor and Lieutenant Governor positions were won by Democrats, and the Attorney General race was narrowly in favor of the Republican Mark Obenshain over Democrat Mark Herring. Since last Tuesday, precincts across the state have been correcting their counts. As of this morning, Obenshain was up by a mere 17 votes out of some 2.2 million votes tallied.

Over the past few days, discrepancies, including a missing tally from an entire machine, have come to light in the Democratic stronghold of Richmond. A couple of hours ago, a hearing was held by the Richmond electoral board to clarify those discrepant or suspicious results in eight precincts. The rather dramatic review of those eight precincts netted Herring a total of 132 votes, giving the Democrat a lead of 115 votes.

The Republicans immediately demanded a review of ten more precincts. The request was granted, and those are being examined as I write this post. But, the first five precincts examined so far have resulted in exactly zero changes—they keep their election day tallies. I note that the Richmond electoral board is composed of two Republicans and one Democrat, so it will be hard for Republicans to concoct rational conspiracy theories around the hearings (as if “rational” has ever been a criterion!).

Of course we are still a long way from having this resolved. The loser will almost certainly request a recount, although N in Seattle tells me that the Virginia recounts rules are far more restrictive than what we are used to here in Washington. And then there will be the inevitable lawsuit a la the first Gregoire–Rossi race in Washington or the Franken–Coleman race in Minnesota.

The other likely set of changes to the vote count will come from about 500 outstanding provisional ballots. Most outstanding provisionals will come from blue-leaning areas—the great majority from Fairfax County, and a handful from Roanoke city. These will be adjudicated through tomorrow afternoon, when the final tallies must be certified. It is always dicey projecting provisional ballots, but we should expect Herring to pick up at least a thin majority of the provisional votes that are accepted. (BTW: there was a flap over the weekend about “rule changes” in who could represent provisional voters. The flap turns out to be pretty much bogus.)

So it looks damn likely that Democrats will have swept the three statewide races in Virginia. Given that the current Virginia Attorney General and failed gubernatorial candidate, Ken Cuccinelli, was openly boasting about being the first AG to sue the federal government over ObamaCare, his gubernatorial loss combined with the loss of the Republican in the AG slot would be a stunning symbolic victory!
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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Chris Cillizza: The country’s most vulnerable governor.

Sam Seder with Aasif Mandvi Behind the Daily Show “Racist Republican” segment:

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

White House: West Wing Week.

LEAVE AQUA BUDDHA ALOOOOOOONNNNE!!!!!:

Pap: Chris Christie is the face of the Republican train wreck.

Stephen has some words for employers who are less than LGBT friendly.

On to 2014!

Please don’t not have sex (via Slog).

Read the tweets you politician deleted.

The Tragedy of Affordable (but Somewhat Inconveniently Acquired) Health Care Insurance for Everyone:

The biggest prison profiteer of them all.

Absurdity Today: JP Morgan and other abominations.

Mental Floss: 26 bizarre college courses.

Sam Seder and Adele Stan: How the Koch brothers are funding the Republican War on Women™.

Thom: More Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

ONN: The Onion Week in Review.

The Spy Who Listened to Me:

Ed with Lizz Winstead on why Ken Cuccinelli lost…”Women like sex but he doesn’t”.

Bill Maher with some New Rules (via Crooks and Liars).

Melissa Harris-Perry: Sunday shows fail to cover devastating cuts to SNAP program.

Sam Seder: Shrub does a keynote for Jews for Jesus.

Politician runs for Congress in FOUR DIFFERENT STATES simultaneously!

Chris Christie’s victory speech in campaign buttons.

Jon: 2016? TOO SOON!!!!

Yes…We Really Are Stooping To Local Politics…Canadian Local Politcs!:

The Obamas surprise some White House visitors:

Thom: You might be a Republican if….

Young Turks: CBS apologizes for Benghazi report.

Absurdity Today: Stuff in the news.

Laura Flanders with Melissa Harris Perry: The Pregnant Woman Who Ended up in Jail.

Maddow: Shrub’s new friends.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottleIt’s election night. Please be sure to VOTE, and then join us for some electoral punditry and political prognostication over a pint at tonight’s Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday evening at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00pm.






Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities chapter also meets. The Lakewood chapter meets this Wednesday. For Thursday, the Spokane and Tacoma chapters meet. And on Friday, the Centralia chapter meets.

With 211 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon, and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter meeting near you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Bill Maher with some new rules (via Crooks and Liars).

Maddow: The fight to keep Republicans from tainting scientific climate reports. Part I.
Maddow: The fight to keep Republicans from tainting scientific climate reports. Part II.

Spooky Times:

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Steve Kornacki: The history of Black Senators, Part I.
Steve Kornacki: The history of Black Senators, Part II.

Maddow: How you pay congress to do nothing!

Sharpton with Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA-7): Republicans will say anything about President Obama just to see him fail.

Cruz Mis-sell:

Sam Seder: Seattle’s socialist movement.

Jon has some words for the media: Go fuck yourself.

Thom: Why is the GOP trying to insert the Government into a woman’s uterus?

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News likes bank fraud?!?

The Audacity of Affordable Health Care for Everyone:

Mental Floss: 32 superstition orgins.

Jonathan Mann: Mother Nature is motherfucking scary.

Sam Seder: Rick Santorum reveals that Hollywood is run by Satan!!!

Pap: Teabaggers don’t understand the economy.

Chris Cillizza: Is blocking judges and effective tactic for Republicans?.

Serial Plagerist Rand Paul:

White House: West Wing Week.

Stephen mocks GOP Senators who disapproved of their own previous debt ceiling vote.

Chris Cillizza: The very scary proposition of dead people on the voter roles:

Steve Kornacki: Fifth-year slumps, Obama versus Bush.

Thom: How climate change affects the oceans.

Stephen demands Nevada Assemblyman Jim Wheeler “punch himself in the balls” after slavery comments.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll analysis: I-517 faultering

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Initiative 517 is the latest from Tim Eyman’s long line of mostly unsuccessful initiatives. I-517 would lengthen the signature gathering time for initiatives, would give signature gatherers intrusive access to the public, even on private property, and severely restrict free speech in the vicinity of signature gatherers. Essentially, it would make Mr. Eyman’s life a lot easier.

So howz it doin’? A new Moore poll finds:

With just over a week to go before the November 5th general election, Washington’s Initiative 517, which concerns the initiative and referendum process in the state, is opposed by a narrow margin. After hearing the ballot question, 33% of voters plan to or have already voted “yes,” while 40% plan to or have voted “no.” The remaining 27% are undecided or wouldn’t reveal their vote.

Importantly, intensity is stronger on the “no” side – among those who have yet to cast their ballots, 21% say they are a “definite” no vote, while only 11% are a definite “yes” vote.

It sounds bad for I-517. But as SeattlePI.com’s Joel Connelly cautions:

Eyman initiatives tend to run better AT the polls than in the polls. The results on election day have sometimes surprised those who have predicted his demise. And, win or lose, Eyman is usually back with more measures as soon as the votes have been counted.

Something else to consider is the sample size of this poll. Even though the poll (conducted from 23-24 Oct) sampled 500 people, only 365 expressed a Yes or No preference. This is a pretty small sample. Using only those 365 individuals, 200 who said, “No” and 165 who said “Yes”, I ran a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the probability that I-517 would win right now. From a million simulated elections, “Yes” won 94,839 and “No” won 898,738 times.

The analysis suggests that the initiative has only a 9.5% probability of winning. Here is the distribution of votes from the simulation:

Moore-28Oct

Considering these “non-significant” statistical results (which are only based on the poll numbers) and Joel’s caution, I-517 opponents still have plenty of work to do; proponents still have a shot at changing the outcome.

The momentum is on the side of the opponents, however. The subsample of those polled who had already voted “Yes” or “No” on the initiative (104 people), I-517 was losing 37% “Yes” to 63% “No”. (Note that I’ve eliminated the “Don’t Know/Refused” category in those numbers.)

The trend in polling also suggests that I-517 is going down. An Elway poll, taken way back in early September, found 58% supporting and 22% opposed to the initiative. Another Elway poll from mid-October cut into the support with 52% supporting and 25% opposing the measure.

So, the most recent poll suggests a pretty impressive turn-around in support.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottlePlease join us this evening for some pre-election politics over a pint at tonight’s Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday evening at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00pm.






Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out another DL meeting over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter also meets tonight. On Friday, the Enumclaw chapter . And next Monday, the Yakima, South Bellevue and Olympia chapters meet.

With 210 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon, and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter meeting near you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Emily Heil: What it will take to get more women to Washington?

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

White House: West Wing Week.

Jon does an America apology tour.

ObamaCareWebGlitchyFail Derangement Syndrome:

Inquiring Minds podcast: Science of Tea Party wrath (via Mother Jones.

Maddow: North Carolina GOP having some trouble with their minority outreach program (via Crooks and Liars).

Jon analyzes CNBC’s outrage over JPMorgan Chase ‘shakedown’.

Ann Telnaes: Obama drones.

ONN: The Onion Week in Review.

Daily Show: Sexy Halloween costumes.

The Party of the Stupid

Mental Floss: 28 sweet facts about candy.

Thom: How America could be the happiest country on earth.

Ed: Dick Cheney has the audacity to criticize Obama for “premature” announcement of bin Laden’s death:

Stephen with the word Philantrophy (via Crooks and Liars).

Ann Telnaes: One bad heart away from the presidency.

G.O.P. Voter Suppression:

Bill Maher with some New Rules (via Crooks and Liars).

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottleIt’s a late notice today (busy day!), but here is the call to join us tonight for an evening of politics over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday evening at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out another nearby DL meeting over the next week. With 210 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon, and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter meeting near you.

All Enemies, Foreign and Domestic

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The government shutdown was not only a disaster for Republicans, it was also a costly disaster for all Americans.

For example, we paid federal employees during the shutdown, but they were prohibited from working. (So…the next time you hear a Wingnut complain about how inefficient the government is, be sure to point out that the government isn’t the problem…Republicans are!)

How much damage did Republicans do to the U.S. economy by shutting down the government for 16 days? Try $24 Billion.

To put that $24 Billion in proper perspective, consider this: the direct damage from the September 11th terrorist attacks is estimated as follows:

The four civilian aircraft that were lost: $385 million.

Replacement costs of the World Trade Center buildings: $3 to $4.5 billion.

Damage to the Pentagon building: up to $1 billion.

Cleanup costs: $1.3 billion.

Property and infrastructure damage: $10 billion to $13 billion.

With some adjustment for inflation, the costs to our economy from the Republican terrorist attack on the U.S. government is, essentially, same as the direct costs of the al Qaeda terrorist attack on our country.

Now I understand more fully what’s meant by “all enemies, foreign and domestic” in the oath of office taken by congresscritters and other federal officials.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Sam Seder: Comrade Louie Gohmert’s Soviet Plan (Episode 1).

Young Turks: Hilarious, awkward concession speech

Lawrence O’Donnell: Meet hypocrite Greg Collett (R), Idaho State Representative.

This is Obamacare.

Ed: Teabaggers cost us $24 billion in shutdown.

Chris Cillizza: Third party time?

Red State Update: Podcast #48.

Kimmel: The Week in Unnecessary Censorship.

Political Dictionary: What is the “Hastert Rule”.

Mental Floss: 23 Unusual Animals.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican 50.0–South Dakota:

Mark Fiore: Internal Patriot Discovery Smart Probe.

Hostage Crisis Aftermath:

Ed: Tea Party stupidity.

Sam Seder: Does Obamacare increase your health care costs?

You had me at NSA.

Stephen Colbert’s Al Smith Dinner Speech.

White House: West Wing Week.

Chris Cillizza: Mitch McConnell is in a run for his money.

Kimmel’s Kids Table.

ONN: The Onion Week in Review.

Sharpton: VA nutjobber Ken Cuccinelli is in trouble.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Rep. Tom Foley (D-WA)

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Former Rep. Tom Foley (D), who represented Eastern Washington from 1965 to 1995, has died at 84 from complications of a stroke.

Rep. Foley, a Spokane native, was the 57th Speaker of the House, serving from 1989 to 1995.

When I think of Speaker Foley, the word “Statesman” comes to mind. The NY Times puts it this way:

When he became speaker on June 6, 1989, Mr. Foley, from Washington State, appealed to “our friends on the Republican side to come together and put away bitterness and division and hostility.” He promised to treat “each and every member” fairly, regardless of party, and by most estimations he lived up to that promise to a degree unmatched by his successors.

By contrast, Speaker Boehner (R-OH) is a shameless partisan, acting more as a majority leader than a Speaker of the House…and frequently acting in the interest of his Party to the detriment of our nation. In my recent letter to Boehner, I reminded him that…

…you are the Speaker of the HOUSE, not the Speaker of the Republican Party. As second in line for the presidency, I expect you to show careful stewardship of our nation.

Indeed, Foley was the very archetype behind my words:

Despite sharp differences on issues, he got along better with members of the other party than any of the speakers who followed him. In that final news conference, asked to offer advice to the next speaker, Mr. Gingrich, he urged him to remember, “You are the speaker of the whole House and not just one party.”

We need more Tom Foley’s in Congress.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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The crisis continues…the federal government is still being held hostage, but that won’t keep us from plotting a rescue mission. Please join us for an evening of rescue politics over a pint at tonight’s gathering of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday evening at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00pm.






Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out another nearby DL meeting over the next week. The Tri-Cities and Shelton chapters meet tonight. The Lakewood and South Seattle chapters meet this Wednesday. For Thursday, the Spokane and Tacoma chapters meet. And next Monday, the Aberdeen, Yakima and Olympia chapters meet.

With 210 chapters of Living Liberally, including eighteen in Washington state, four in Oregon, and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter meeting near you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Stephen: Shep’s FAUX News deck.

Mark Fiore: The Grand Bargain hoax:

Chris Cillizza with Maya MacGuineas: Why do we have an unbalanced budget.

Mental Floss: 30 Life Hacks Debunked.

Sam Seder: The conservative trucker protest that wasn’t.

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Sharpton has some civics lessons for the G.O.P.

The Law of The Land:

Thom: The climate change point of no return.

White House: West Wing Week.

Sam Seder: Michele Bachman says some crazy shit.

Pit TV: Stop and Frisk…

Stephen: On the guy running for Michele Bachman’s seat’s totally illegal ads.

Ann Telnaes: Some $peech is worth more than others.

The Hostage Crisis Continues:

The GOP War on Women™ continues with anti-Hillary buttons.

Maddow: G.O.P. muddles message.

Chris Hayes: Meet a member of the Ignorance Caucus.

Pap: The death of Republican ideas.

Stephen: New Pot laws.

Red State Update: Podcast 47, All we want is a conversation with Obama.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News’s fake Obama Muslim museum story.

Thom: Wendy Davis vs. the TX Good Ol’ Boys.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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