Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 369 electoral votes	Mean of 169 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 362 to 176 electoral votes.

Today there were 32 new polls in 20 states released. Obama get the better of it.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes—that gives Obama 100 electoral votes in excess of what he needs to win. If an election had been held today, Obama would have won with near certainty.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

[audio:http://www.podcastingliberally.com/podcasts/harvard.mp3]

The podcast begins in the WA-08 congressional district, where some journalists and a lot of Republicans don’t seem to understand academic degrees and terminology. A Harvard graduate clears matters up. From degrees to convictions…the panel scrutinizes Rep. Dave Reichert’s illegal campaign loan. Next they examine “G.O.P. Party” candidate Dino Rossi’s deposition over campaign finance law violations. (Oh…that sound you hear? It’s the gnashing of Republican teeth across the state). After a brief sojourn into presidential politics, the panel revisits the strange case of Alaska’s Uncle Ted Stevens seven traffic tickets felony convictions. The podcast closes with panelist’s predictions for the WA-08 and the gubernatorial races.

Goldy was joined by Matt Stoller of OpenLeft, Seattle P-I columnist Joel Connelly, Publisher of the Group News Blog, Jesse Wendel, and initiative specialist Laura McClintock of McClintock Consulting.

The show is 51:36, and is available here as an MP3:

[audio:http://www.podcastingliberally.com/podcasts/podcasting_liberally_oct_28_2008.mp3]

[Recorded live at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Special thanks to Confab creators Gavin and Richard for hosting podcasting liberally.]

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 362 electoral votes	Mean of 176 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 363 to 175 electoral votes. Obama had a 100% chance of winning an election held yesterday.

Today, there were 35 new polls representing 22 states released. The net result is a one-vote decline for Obama.

An analysis of 100,000 simulated elections shows Obama winning every one. Obama receives (on average) 362 to McCain’s 176 electoral votes. Obama still has a 100.0% probability of winning an election held now.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 363 electoral votes	Mean of 175 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 376 to 162 electoral votes. Obama would have almost certainly won an election held yesterday.

There were 21 new polls from 17 states released today. In addition, with one week to the election, today is the day that the “current poll window” is scheduled to change from 10 days to 7 days. Both polls and the polling window affect today’s results.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 363 to McCain’s 175 electoral votes. Obama still has a 100.0% probability of winning an election held today.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Join us at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally for an evening of politics under the influence. Officially, we start at 8:00 pm at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Some folks show up early to enjoy the cuisine.

Tonight will be something of a pre-election party. We’ll raise a toast to Alaska’s outgoing Senator—whatever you think of his politics, the man has convictions! Likewise, we’ll raise a toast to Dino Rossi in hopes that he gets himself some convictions.

If you find yourself in the Tri-Cities area this evening, McCranium shoud have the scoop on the local Drinking Liberally. Otherwise, check out the Drinking Liberally web site for dates and times of a chapter near you.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 376 electoral votes	Mean of 162 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 376 to 162 electoral votes, on average.

Today we got 35 new polls covering 19 states. The net result of all these new polls is…not much. Obama holds firmly to his lead today.

A Monte Carlo analysis utilizing 100,000 simulated elections shows Obama winning each and every mock election. Obama receives (on average) 376 to McCain’s 162 electoral votes. The analysis suggests that Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning an election held today.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 376 electoral votes	Mean of 162 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 373 to 165 electoral votes (on average). Obama almost certainly would have won an election held yesterday.

With the addition of fifteen new polls from thirteen states today, Obama earns a couple more electoral votes….

A Monte Carlo analysis consisting of 100,000 simulated elections shows Obama winning them all. Obama receives (on average) 376 to McCain’s 162 electoral votes—a gain of three. Obama would still have a near-100.0% probability of winning an election held today.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 373 electoral votes	Mean of 165 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 372 to 166 electoral votes (on average). Today we have eight new polls in seven states weighing in on the contest. Obama gains very slightly.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins them all. Obama receives (on average) 373 to McCain’s 165 electoral votes—a gain of one electoral vote. If the election had been held today, Obama would have won with near certainty.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Sen. John McCain gets a theme song:

(There are some sixty more media clips from the past week in politics at Hominid Views.)

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 372 electoral votes	Mean of 166 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 376 to 162 electoral votes. There were 21 new polls in 15 states released today. The polls slightly favor McCain, so that he gains a handful of electoral votes today.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 372 to McCain’s 166 electoral votes. Obama would still have a 100.0% probability of winning an election held now.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 376 electoral votes	Mean of 162 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by (on average) 370 to 168 electoral votes. There were 26 new polls representing 17 states released today to weigh in on today’s analysis. For the most part, the polls strongly favored Obama.

Now, the outcome of 100,000 simulated elections is that Obama wins them all. Obama receives (on average) 376 to McCain’s 162 electoral votes—a gain of six. In an election held now, Obama would win with near certainty.

This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Obama	189
Strong Obama	177	366
Leans Obama	12	12	378
Weak Obama	0	0	0	378
Weak McCain	3	3	3	160
Leans McCain	15	15	157
Strong McCain	105	142
Safe McCain	37

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 370 electoral votes	Mean of 168 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by an average of 368 to 170 electoral votes. Today there were 18 new polls representing 12 states released that weigh in on the score. The net result is a small gain for Obama.

A Monte Carlo analysis consisting of 100,000 simulated elections finds that Obama wins every one. Obama receives (on average) 370 to McCain’s 168 electoral votes—a gain of two. If an election had been held today, Obama would have had a near 100% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days over the period 22-Feb to 22-Oct. After a very slight period of decline, Obama is again gaining with time:

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

The big topic of conversation was the seemingly illegal contribution to Rep. Dave Reichert’s campaign by Media Plus. Did Reichert violate the letter of the law, or just the spirit of the law? Are Republicans like Reichert and Rossi ignoring election financing laws, and treating post-elections fines as the cost of doing business? From there, a heady discussion arose about liberalism and conservatism, and what liberals must do about conservatives.

Goldy was joined by Matt Stoller of OpenLeft, Seattle P-I columnist Joel Connelly, Publisher of the Group News Blog, Jesse Wendel, and Eat The State’s Geov Parrish.

The show is 56:26, and is available here as an MP3:

[audio:http://www.podcastingliberally.com/podcasts/podcasting_liberally_oct_21_2008.mp3]

[Recorded live at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Special thanks to Confab creators Gavin and Richard for hosting the site.]