Election Scorecard

100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 369 electoral votesMean of 169 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 369 to 169 electoral votes. For today, we get to add in 42 new polls representing 23 states. But no big surprises emerges, and no change to the score.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins every one. Obama receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes. If an election had been held today, Obama would win with a near-100.0% probability.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.


  1. 2

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    These conclusions are based on an average of so many name-brand national polls, and have held steady so long, that the only way Obama could lose this election is if it’s stolen.

  2. 3

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Columnist: Election Is Referendum on Trickle-Down Theory

    I’m not a huge fan of Washington Post columnist E. J. Dionne, but this column by him offers a fascinating insight into what is driving voters in 2008: If you think voodoo economics works you vote for McSame, and if you’ve had enough of socialism for the rich you vote for change. He might be right.

    ” … For all of the McCain campaign’s relentless use of guilt-by-association techniques …, the 2008 campaign is concluding on a remarkably substantive argument. It is a debate about what constitutes social fairness and whether a top-down or a bottom-up approach to economic growth will define the country’s future.

    “Obama … has been bold and unrelenting in his criticisms of trickle-down economics and tax cuts concentrated on the wealthy. He used Thursday’s negative numbers on economic growth to press his case against theories that conservatives have been touting for decades.

    “‘The decline in our GDP didn’t happen by accident,’ Obama said. ‘It is a direct result of the Bush administration’s trickle-down, Wall Street-first, Main Street-last policies that John McCain has embraced for the last eight years.’

    “Yes, economic populism is thriving right now and if Obama wins, his election would not simply be a non-ideological verdict against the status quo. It would be a clear repudiation of conservative economic ideas and of McCain’s claim that a more-egalitarian approach to growth constitutes ‘socialism.’

    “McCain’s attacks on Obama’s thinking have been so forceful and direct that they require this election to be seen as a referendum that will settle a long-running philosophical argument. …

    “Obama is candid in saying that he thinks the wealthy should pay more so that most Americans can pay less. He also thinks the government can help vulnerable members of the middle class and the poor secure health care and go to college. …

    “For years, Republicans have argued that the way to help struggling working people is to give more money to the wealthy. Obama is saying that we should cut out the middleman and help working people directly.

    “My hunch is that Obama’s argument will prevail, and that conservatives will then work overtime to try to deny the judgment the people have rendered.”

    (Quoted under fair use.)

    Roger Rabbit Commentary: Republican trickle-down Whack-o-nomics is, of course, redistributive. It takes from those who work and gives to those who own in a variety of ways, the most overt being the massive transfer of tax burdens from the capitalist class to the working class. But it also does this with policies that undercut the bargaining power of labor by weakening unions and keeping unemployment high, through transferring financial risks to the public sector while keeping the profits from taking those risks in a few private hands, and encouraging market manipulation and monopoly formation, among other techniques.

    The result was predictable: Labor’s share of GDP has fallen from over 60% to under 50%, and all of the economic gains of the last 40 years have gone to the richest 2% of the population. Another consequence of the GOP’s rapacious economic policies is that our country is now saddled with an atrociously unfair tax system that discourages work and encourages speculative activity that creates dangerous bubbles.

    The right — most of whom get screwed by this system but support it anyway because they’ve been bamboozled into turning their attention to fringe issues — seemingly will do anything to keep the rotten and corrupt economic system that greedy conservatives built in place. They should be careful of what they wish for, and remember what happened to many of history’s greedheads. Societies, like individuals, have breaking points and will take only so much.

  3. 4

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    Frankly, I think the voters of 2008 will revolt against the expropriative fascist-socialism of Bush and McSame, and that Democrats will once again save capitalism from the capitalists.

  4. 5

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    If Obama flips Indiana, Missouri, Georgia, and Montana — and holds everywhere else — he’ll achieve a landslide of over 400 electoral votes.

  5. 6

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    In the latest RealClearPolitics electoral vote map, Obama leads 311 – 132 with 95 tossup EVs. Obama solidified his hold on New Hampshire while Arizona and Georgia moved from McCain to tossup. This is McCain’s weakest position of the campaign so far.

  6. 7

    Jim, (a genuine musician) spews:

    Speaking of elections, Senator Elizabeth Dole is running an ad that makes her a soont.


  7. 10

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @8 Excuse me, John, but what’s Obama’s responsibility for this? Short answer: None. What his half-aunt does is no reflection on him. He didn’t even know she was here illegally, but even if he had, he can’t tell her what to do. Here’s a news flash for ya, buddy — the right’s guilt-by-association tactics aren’t working this time. You guys need a new playbook — and a new coach.

  8. 11

    Roger Rabbit spews:

    @8 As long as we’re painting with a broad brush here, I’d like to point out that being a nephew of an illegal immigrant isn’t nearly as bad as being the wife of a guy who belongs to a secessionist party whose leader was so rabidly anti-American he refused to be buried on U.S. soil.

  9. 14

    John spews:

    “Excuse me, John, but what’s Obama’s responsibility for this? Short answer: None.”

    Great this is how he treats family where all going to be screwed.

    “He didn’t even know she was here illegally”

    Yeah , just like he didn’t know she lived on welfare, and he being a Millionaire couldn’t spare a dime to help her or move her into a better place to live.


    I though he was a lawyer from Harvard and was a community organizer and he didn’t know or ask how she got here?

    Do what democrats do best CHANGE THE SUBJECT.
    Heaven help us if he steals this election.

  10. 15

    John spews:


    Obama,said he will not be the old politics we need to CHANGE WASHINGTON.

    If this is change hate to see how he would lead every day something new will come up and you guys will say he didn’t know or Bush did it.

    Democrats are a bunch of losers and cry babies.
    You can’t defend this guy only blame others.

  11. 16

    John spews:

    “As long as we’re painting with a broad brush here”

    A broad brush????????????????

    “Obama aunt from Kenya living in US illegally.
    As a Senator he took a oath to up hold the law.”

    Nothing broad about this, it’s pointed !

    So again you CHANGE THE SUBJECT!

  12. 17

    Proud To Be An Ass spews:

    @15: The half sister of his late father? You make this an issue? You gotta’ be kidding! You are a mendacious dimwit. Take your faux outrage to the fever swamp where you losers handle snakes and speak in tongues about black helicopters. What’s there to defend?

    On the other hand, perhaps you can provide us a rationale for the way Cindy McCain treats her half-sister, eh? And she has a hundred million to play with. Waste some more of your foul breath here and pontificate about ‘family values’.

    The sooner the dishonesty you exhibit is run out of the public square, the sooner this society can begin to heal from the hell imposed upon it by the know nothing thugs who currently run the republican party.

    You need professional help.

  13. 18

    John spews:


    Oh, so forget what he said in his book about her it was lies too.

    We get it Proud To Be An Ass.
    Change the SUBJECT blame others you guys are in for a great surprise if he wins.

    Hope you can give him some help on seeing, hearing and speaking without a teleprompter.
    Oh, tell him to help the poor like he did for his aunt.

  14. 19

    K spews:

    John- I assume you are willing to take responsibility for each and every one of your relatives, no matter how distant.

  15. 20

    John spews:

    I do know more about mine (across the country)then he knows about his or his associates as history has proven.

    When a aunt just drops in from Africa and two years later she calls him to say I’m here for good. Harvard Lawyer doesn’t even ask how?
    Yet she has his home phone number?
    You can’t defend him no one can. He wasn’t 8 years old at the time.

  16. 21

    Proud To Be An Ass spews:

    @18: You really do not “get” anything. There is no SUBJECT to “change” here. Nothing. Nada.

    I blame you only for being a lunatic. A rather pathetic one in fact.