|100.0% probability of winning||0.0% probability of winning|
|Mean of 369 electoral votes||Mean of 169 electoral votes|
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 362 to 176 electoral votes.
Today there were 32 new polls in 20 states released. Obama get the better of it.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes—that gives Obama 100 electoral votes in excess of what he needs to win. If an election had been held today, Obama would have won with near certainty.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.