Election Scorecard

100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 369 electoral votesMean of 169 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 362 to 176 electoral votes.

Today there were 32 new polls in 20 states released. Obama get the better of it.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes—that gives Obama 100 electoral votes in excess of what he needs to win. If an election had been held today, Obama would have won with near certainty.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ. The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.


  1. 1

    Rick D. spews:

    Another day, another dumbass Darryl scorecard that shows no change from yesterday’s, or the day before yesterday’s, or the day before that, #9, #9, #9.

    Just keep copying and pasting Darryl, it’s not like Goldy is paying you for original content anyway,right?

  2. 2

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Here is a Time’s article this AM that thells you KLOWNS what I’ve been trying to tell you.
    Increasing taxes WILL NOT close the Income Gap.
    You KLOWNS are delusional!

    Experts: Obama, McCain tax plans won’t close income gap
    There are no easy ways for the presidential candidates to close the nation’s gap between rich and poor, now bigger than any time since the 1920s.

    By David Lightman

    McClatchy Newspapers

    WASHINGTON — There are no easy ways for the presidential candidates to close the nation’s gap between rich and poor, now bigger than any time since the 1920s.

    Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain say their economic plans can narrow the income gap. Obama’s tax plan offers a classic way to do that by increasing taxes on the rich, but economists think neither plan is likely to bring dramatic changes.

    “Taxes are not going to solve the income-gap problem,” said Roberton Williams, principal research associate at the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. “Nobody’s going to stand for the kind of confiscatory taxes you would need.”

    So while you KLOWNS keep harping on your hopeless “everybody needs to be equal so we need to tax the rich & coroporations more” bullshit…you ought to be listening to the new angle your Messiah is now preaching…grow the economic pie!

    The Socialist/Marxist agenda is based on a finite economic pie…hence, you KLOWNS are fixated on taking from successful and giving it it poor folks. Won’t work!!

  3. 3

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Hey KLOWNS:
    Here is your “reach across the aisle, uniter” Socialist/Marxist in action!:

    Report: Journalists From Three Newspapers Booted From Obama’s Plane
    Reporters from three newspapers that endorsed John McCain have reportedly been told that they can’t travel aboard Barack Obama’s plane in the final days leading before Election Day.


    Journalists from three major newspapers that endorsed John McCain have reportedly been booted from Barack Obama’s campaign plane for the final leg of the presidential race.

    The Washington Times reported Friday that it was notified of the Obama campaign’s decision Thursday evening — even though the paper has covered Obama from the start.

    Executive Editor John Solomon told FOXNews.com that the Obama campaign said it didn’t have enough seats on the plane, but “I don’t think the explanation makes sense to us.”

    “We’ve been traveling since 2007 with him. … We’re a relevant newspaper — every day we break news,” Solomon said. “And to suddenly be kicked off the plane for people who haven’t covered it as aggressively or thoroughly as we are … it sort of feels unfair.”

    He said the newspaper protested but was turned down again by the campaign.

    “I can only hope that the candidate who describes himself as wanting to unite the nation doesn’t have some sort of litmus test for who he decides gets to cover the campaign,” Solomon said, noting that the Obama campaign’s decision came just two days after the paper endorsed McCain.

    The New York Post and Dallas Morning News also have been kicked off Obama’s plane

    Obama hasn’t even been elected yet and he has set himself up for a rough road BY HIS ACTIONS.
    This is really telling about what we can expect from the closed door, orchestrated Obama Administration.

    You said you wanted folks to give Obama a chance. How can you expect that with actions like this???

  4. 4

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Your Messiah has been lying to ya!!

    Obama Lays Plans to Kill Expectations After Election Victory
    Confident in an Election Day win, the campaign looks to lower supporters’ expectations on concerns their hopes of ‘change’ are unrealistic, a senior aide says

    By Tim Reid, The Times of London

    Barack Obama’s senior advisers have drawn up plans to lower expectations for his presidency if he wins next week’s election, amid concerns that many of his euphoric supporters are harboring unrealistic hopes of what he can achieve.

    The sudden financial crisis and the prospect of a deep and painful recession have increased the urgency inside the Obama team to bring people down to earth, after a campaign in which his soaring rhetoric and promises of “hope” and “change” are now confronted with the reality of a stricken economy.

    One senior adviser told The Times that the first few weeks of the transition, immediately after the election, were critical, “so there’s not a vast mood swing from exhilaration and euphoria to despair.”

    The aide said that Obama himself was the first to realize that expectations risked being inflated.

    In an interview with a Colorado radio station, Obama appeared to be engaged already in expectation lowering. Asked about his goals for the first hundred days, he said he would need more time to tackle such big and costly issues as health care reform, global warming and Iraq.

    “The first hundred days is going to be important, but it’s probably going to be the first thousand days that makes the difference,” he said. He has also been reminding crowds in recent days how “hard” it will be to achieve his goals, and that it will take time.

    “I won’t stand here and pretend that any of this will be easy — especially now,” Obama told a rally in Sarasota, Florida, yesterday, citing “the cost of this economic crisis, and the cost of the war in Iraq.” Obama’s transition team is headed by John Podesta, a Washington veteran and a former chief-of-staff to Bill Clinton. He has spent months overseeing a virtual Democratic government-in-exile to plan a smooth transition should Obama emerge victorious next week.

    The plans are so far advanced that an Obama Cabinet has been largely decided upon, with the expectation that most of his senior appointments could be announced shortly after election day.

    You KLOWNS are what is referred to Euphoric Supporters!

    All of your rhetoric about what Obama is going to do us is BULLSHIT!
    You KLOWNS have been duped!

    You are sooooooo anxious to “Win” that your expectations of what “win” actually is has been squashed….before the election!!!


  5. 5

    Steve spews:

    Ranching in Montana is such easy work. It allows Cynical the time to post on a Western Washington political blog day in, day out, from morning to night. Yes, ranching is very easy work.

    There is no ranch. There are no investments. Cynical lies about everything.

  6. 6

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Poor Steve–
    Jealousy & Envy choke his pitiful, meaningless life.

    From Today’s Rasmussen:

    Friday, October 31, 2008

    The Rasmussen Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama with 51% of the vote, John McCain with 47%.
    Over the past five days, Obama’s lead has been between three and five percentage points each day. That’s a bit tighter than the four to eight point margins enjoyed by the Democrat for the previous month (see trends).

    The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying his support. The Arizona Senator has reached the 47% mark on two of the past three days. Prior to that, he had not reached the 47% level of support in over a month. Another way of looking at it is that McCain’s support has now stayed at 46% or above for five straight days. Prior to that, McCain had only reached the 46% level four times in a month.
    Obama is now viewed favorably by 54% of voters nationwide, McCain by 53%.

    I think this is pretty close to where we are at Nationally. How this ties into State Polls is Darryl’s mission. Rasmussen shows McCain MUST win nearly all the Toss-up and Dem Leaning States. Ain’t gonna happen….mainly because Obama was strategically wise to push early voting wherever possible. Can’t change your vote after you’ve already voted.

  7. 7

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Hey Steve–
    Did you read about Obama lowering your expectations?
    All your huffing & puffing about what Obama was going to do to guys like me turns out to be just a cruel joke!
    And the joke is on YOU…CHUMP!

  8. 8

    Steve spews:

    @7 Whatever you say, Cynical.

    Ranching in Montana is such easy work. It allows Cynical plenty of time to have lunch each day at his favorite cafe in Lacey, just a few minutes away from the BIAW headquarters in Olympia.

    Cynical lies about everything. There is no ranch. There are no investments. Yes, everything Cynical says is a lie.

  9. 9

    YLB spews:

    so we need to tax the rich & coroporations more

    Couldn’t agree more Cyn…

    We’ve been telling Mark the stupid Redneck to pay his fucking gambling debt for years.

    Well sorry Cyn, Barack Obama is going to make you rich war-loving losers pay your fair share of Bush’s folly…

    We in the middle class haven’t had a raise in 30 years, so we’re going muddle through with Barack Obama’s TAX CUT.

  10. 10

    YLB spews:

    Yo Cynical,

    It’s all over. Chris Bowers call it.

    Here is why this is over:

    1. In order to win the election, all Barack Obama needs are the Kerry states, plus Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. That adds up to 273 electoral votes.

    2. Obama leads by at least 9.5% in every Kerry state and Iowa, according to both Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics. Also, my own numbers concur with those calculations.

    3. This means that in order to win the election, all Obama has to do is hold onto states where he leads by 9.5% or more, and win both Colorado and New Mexico. These are both states where more than half of all voters will cast their ballots before Election Day (source). In other words, the elections in Colorado and New Mexico are already almost over, not just beginning. And these are the only two states he needs to win, other than the ones where he leads by double-digits.

    4. In Colorado, about 60% of the vote is already in. According to the crosstabs of the three most recent polls in the state, Obama leads early voters by 15% (Rasmussen), 18% (Marist) and 17% (PPP). Even in the best case scenario for McCain, where he only trails by 15% among those who have already voted and only 55% of the vote is in, he still needs to win the remaining voters by 18.4% in order to eek out the state. And that is the best-case scenario. The worst case scenario for McCain–65% of the vote in and an 18% deficit among early voters–is that he needs to win the remaining voters by 33.5% in order to win the election.

    5. That leaves New Mexico. In 2004, New Mexico had an even higher rate of early voting than Colorado (50.6% to 47.9%). Further, all polling aggregation sites show Obama’s lead to be larger in New Mexico than in Colorado. While the recent dearth of polling in the Land of Enchantment means there are no early voting crosstabs, those two facts suggest the situation is even worse for McCain in New Mexico than in Colorado. At the very least, it isn’t much better. Update: A new poll from PPP in New Mexico indicates that 56% of the vote is in, and Obama leads 64%-36% among those voters. If that is accurate, McCain would have to win the remaining voters by 35.7%.


    Sorry Cyn, the people have just REJECTED four more years of the SAME OLD BULLSHIT

  11. 11

    rhp6033 spews:

    Actually, it might be a good idea for Obama to lower expectations – the economic situation today is remarkably worse than it was this past summer, and it’s getting worse steadily.

    At one point it appeared that replacing the Bush administration with one which was merely competent and had the best interests of the nation at heart would be enough to change the direction of the country. But the economic events over the last two months and the administration’s handling of it has plunged the U.S. economy into a deep dive from which it might take years to recover.

    A case in point:

    As the stock market dived, the administration pushed forward their 750 Billion dollar rescue package which was initially supposed to buy up the bad mortgage paper from the bundled securities, thereby allowing stockholders to be able to see a “floor” to their risk and thereby support the market. But the administration drug it’s feet as it refused, for two weeks, to agree to a plan which would have included caps on executive pay and bonuses until Congressional Republicans pressured the White House to give in. In the meantime, other banks failed or were forced into mergers by the FDIC, and the problem was compounded, making the ultimate bill broader in scope, with more discretion to the Secty of Treasury as to how to apply the funds.

    Just this week, we learned that the Treasury Dept. was selecting banks who would receive the funds which would be used by them to – buy other banks. Which banks would be the winners, and which ones the losers would be entirely subject to the discretion of the Secty of Treasury. Those not receiving funds would have no choice but to be bought out because they can’t compete with banks awash with no-interest grants from the Federal government.

    Some of the banks are using the money to issue dividents to shareholders – which might boost up the value of the bank’s stocks and make the shareholders less likely to boot out the Board of Directors, but in effect is a re-distribution of wealth from the American taxpayer to those who own stocks in specific banks, which certainly tends to be a rather narrow group of wealther-than-average people. Talk about socialism for the rich!!!!!

    Ths whole scheme reminds me of the distribution of wealth in the former Soviet Union to the oligarchs who became multi-billionairs overnight, solely because of their political and financial connections.

    In short, 750 billion dollars is going to be the Bush administration’s next-to-last gift to it’s friends and supporters, all financed with taxpayer money to be paid by our grandchildren.

    The final irony of this is that for all the federal money being poured into the stock market, and the Fed lowering the discount rate all the way down to 1% (even in the face of inflationary indicators), the DJIA SHOULD be trading in the 11,000 to 12,000 range based upon expectations alone – even before the federal money is actually spent. The fact that it’s only above 9,000 after being propped up by massive infusions of federal money (about half of the total package, by most estimates), indicates that it may be in for a significant drop once there is no more money available to prop up the market.

    I say this was a next-to-last gift, because today, we learned that Bush is implementing a last-minute “poisoned well” gift for the Obama administration. I’ll post about that in my next comment, as this one has gotten rather long.

  12. 12

    rhp6033 spews:


    Reports today indicate that the Bush administration is in a flurry of activity related to deregulation and administrative rule changes which may take years to undo. The administration offices are virtually a revolving door of lobbyists for industries seeking favorable federal benefits, many with economic consequences which might cost billions of dollars to undo in the future.

    The new or dropped regulations cover a wide range of topics, including easing rules restricting contamination of waterways by coal mines, easing rules on emissions by oil wells and refineries, lifting restrictions on construction of new nuclear plants, easing regulations designed to prevent oil spills, limiting fines to be imposed in oil spill cases, eliminating catch limits on certain fishing industries, and enacting nation-wide rules on employment family and medical leave, intended to replace state regulations such as California’s with stricter federal limits (under the concept of Federal pre-emption).

    Source: Bush Launches Last-Minute Deregulation Push

  13. 14

    rhp6033 spews:

    So remember that Cynical, Troll, and others on this board tried to blame the current economic crisis on Clinton, despite the passing of almost eight years since Clinton was in office, or the fact that Republicans controlled Congress for most of the Clinton presidency.

    Now watch Cynical, Troll, and others like them start to complain in February that Obama hadn’t solved the crises he inherited from the Bush administration in a “full four weeks in office”.

  14. 18

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    President George W. Bush had issued 157 presidential pardons to people who have served their entire sentence, and has commuted in addition the sentences of six people.

    Clinton more than TRIPLED the Pardons/Commutations of Bush.

    Thanks for bringing that up Steve!

    Oh, did you notice the Pardon for The Rainbow Coalition and child molestor, Democratic Congressman Mel Reynolds??

  15. 20

    rhp6033 spews:

    A few years ago, when I was working on re-habbing a couple of houses and selling them again, I had a chance to chat with another fellow who did the same. A former Army Ranger, he was telling me about a house he bought from a landlord who decided to get rid of it.

    Now this landlord and his tenant had been locked into some sort of dispute, and when the tenant moved out he thought he would get even by flushing several bags of quick-drying cement down the tolets and run through every other pipe they could find. The result, of course, was that every pipe in the house had to be replaced, which required tearing out the sheetrock, and even using a jackhammer to break up a concrete slab to get at the larger drain pipes beneath it.

    I agreed with this other fellow that it was a particularly nasty trick, whatever the nature of the dispute with the landlord, and I don’t have much sympathy for someone who intentionally causes such wanton destruction of property.

    But in posting the above comment I entitled “poisoning the well”, it made me think of this instance. Pollution regulations require a careful balance between the public health of the people, as well as various competing economic interests (companies, employees, neighboring landowners or downstream businesses which might be harmed economically, etc. One could reasonably argue about where the pivot in such a balance lies, and it can vary considerably based upon the industry and the location.

    But the Bush administration has shown itself to be totally incompetent in making such a careful determination in it’s ideological rush to deregulation. It’s attempt to dismantel FEMA prior to Katrina, and it’s bungling of the financial markets resulting in the current economic crisis, are just two examples. Expecting anything good to come out of this last-minute rush to deregulate industries across-the-board, by-passing Congress in the process, is certainly hoping for too much. And as anybody who has dealt with environmental remediation knows (I did that for a while when I was working for a major oil company), it’s a LOT more expensive to clean up pollution than it is to prevent it from happening in the first place.

    So the Bush administration’s rush to de-regulate in the twilight of it’s administration reminds me of the tenant, being kicked out by the landlord, gleefully pouring bags of cement down the toilet, sinks, and bathtub drains. “Maybe he wont’ let me stay here any more, but I’m going to make sure he pays for it in the long run” is the adolescent thought that must have gone through both of their minds.

  16. 21

    rhp6033 spews:

    By the way, for those who are interested, it appears that Boeing is stepping back from out-sourcing. Boeing vice president for engineering Mike Denton made statements in a webcast which confirm that newer aircraft designs will rely more on Boeing engineers and workers.

    “DATE:31/10/08 SOURCE:Air Transport Intelligence

    Boeing trims outsourcing on 787, future designs

    A Boeing executive has confirmed the airframer will scale back outsourced engineering on the next 787 variant and reduce participation by outside partners on all future commercial aircraft programmes…

    (Denton’s statements)… reflect Boeing management’s broad disillusionment with the 787’s once-heralded production system that relied on six major partners in three countries to make vast financial, engineering and production contributions….

    For its part, Boeing mistakenly judged that its partners were capable of participating beyond build-to-print work, and then compounded that error by failing to track their progress.

    “Our engineers and production workers are basically correcting the problems that should have never come to us in the first place — problems that are the result of the partners really not being done,” Denton said.

    Boeing executives will apply lessons learned from the 787-8 experience on the next commercial aircraft.

    “We will probably do more of the design and even some of the major production for the next new airplanes ourselves as opposed to having it all out with the partners,” Denton said. “We see that as building on lessons of the 787, taking advantage of the parts that were really good, but doing some course corrections so that we can not relive some of the harder lessons that we have experienced recently.”

    It seems that having aerospace design and production work isn’t such an easy thing to outsource to lower-paid workers in other states and countries, after all. Turns out that all those union workers, both SPEEA and IAM, actually have some skills which take years to replace.

    In contrast, some of the outsource suppliers don’t even know enough to realize how little they know, but are willing to commit to ship dates regardless.

  17. 22

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Bill Clinton left Bush with a “poison well” by gutting the military and ignoring terrorist threats to the point 9/11 occurred.

    That was about as poison as you can get!!

  18. 24

    Mr. Cynical spews:

    Clinton cut the Military Budget repeatedly….and failed to address Terrorism at home…hence these murderers dwelled freely among us.
    You must be stoned to delude otherwise.

  19. 25

    Michael spews:

    failed to address Terrorism at home

    The Clinton Admin. Caught Tim McVeigh, prosecuted anti-abortion activists when their actions stepped over the line and became harassment, caught the first WTC bombers and warned the Bush Admin. that this guy Osama was going to try and pull off something big.

  20. 26

    Michael spews:

    W. went to war far too soon after taking office to lay claim to anything other than going to war with Clinton’s army.

    I’ll leave to others as to whether the troops that went into Afghanistan were well prepared, but that was Clinton’s army that went in.

  21. 28

    Michael spews:

    Clinton also had to deal with fruitcakes like the Free Men in Montana and the M.O.M. The Clinton admin. had its hands full dealing with far right domestic terrorism and still managed to brief W. on Osama and tell them Osama should be job 1. It was the W.’s admin. that dropped the ball on Osama.

    Remeber Coleen Rowley?

  22. 29

    Michael spews:

    Clinton, to his credit, didn’t hesitate when asked what his biggest mistake in office was. His one word reply: Waco.