Darryl

First the bad news for U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell, who’s up for reelection next year: A new Elway poll finds her “Job Performance” rating at 52 percent “negative” to 42 percent “positive.” (It was nearly the exact opposite in 2005, also a year out from reelection, when her numbers were 52 positive vs. 38 negative.)

The good news?

The GOP doesn’t have any promising challengers. In Elway’s imaginary open primary against a batch of Republicans including: U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert; former KIRO TV anchor Susan Hutchison; Tea Party activist Clint Didier; and Port Commissioner Bill Bryant—Cantwell wins big with 47 percent of the vote.

And that pretty much guarantees Cantwell a spot on the November ballot.

You may recall that Cantwell beat Mike McGavick 56.9% to 39.9% in 2006. Clearly, she can do a lot worse in 2012 and still come out on top. And as flawed as McGavick was, it is not clear that the Republicans have anyone better in the wings. Let’s explore some other polling results for Cantwell in order to better frame the Elway poll.

Survey USA has collected a series of polls from May 2005 until the last poll taken from 16-18 April 2011:

On May 10 of 2005, the first poll on the graph, Cantwell had an approval of 45% and a disapproval of 35%. The most recent poll has her at 49% approval to 40% disapproval. The spread is about the same, but her approval and disapproval are higher in the recent poll because there are fewer undecided folks now.

Clearly, after that May 2005 poll, Cantwell’s approval increased dramatically and stayed relatively high until the Summer of 2009. Since then Cantwell’s approval has been more volatile. Six of the last 20 polls since then show her with higher disapproval, but with an overall trend of a higher approval. And given the absence of a strong opponent on the horizon, I am simply unwilling to fret over a single Elway Poll….

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 5/3/11, 4:49 pm

What are some of the conversations you are likely to hear at the Montlake Ale House tonight? Let’s see…

Gregoire vetoes the medical-marijuana bill
The first poll of the 2012 gubernatorial election is out
OBL is dead
And Rep. Dennis Kucinich is coming to Washington State?!?

So please join us tonight for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but feel free to join some of us for an earlier dinner.

Not in Seattle? There is a good chance you live near one of the 223 other chapters of Drinking Liberally.

Early poll in the Washington gubernatorial race

by Darryl — Tuesday, 5/3/11, 12:50 am

A new King 5/SurveyUSA poll of the 2012 Washington state gubernatorial race has Attorney General Rob McKenna (R-WA) leading Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) by +7 (48% to 41%). A match-up with Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA-08) has Reichert slightly ahead of Inslee, 46% to 44%.

The poll also matched up Gov. Christine Gregoire (D-WA). (Right…Like that’s gonna happen.) She’s down 12% to McKenna and 4% to Reichert.

The poll sampled 610 registered voters and has a margin of error of about 4%.

I decided to grease the gears and wind-up the ol’ calculating machine to tabulate some probabilistic outcomes from these poll data. I’ve posted these Monte Carlo analysis on HA for many years now, but in case you want more details, see that (somewhat outdated) FAQ. Here are results for the Inslee match-ups.

In the Inslee versus McKenna race, a million simulated elections has Inslee winning 95,892 times to McKenna’ s 898,897 wins. That is, if the election had been held yesterday, Inslee would have a 9.6% chance of winning, to McKenna’s 90.4% chance. Here is the distribution of outcomes:

That’s a lot of red.

Less so in the Inslee versus Reichert match-up. Inslee takes 350,198 of the simulated elections to Reichert’s 638,521. That is, Inslee would have about a 35.4% chance of beating Reichert in an election held now, based only on the evidence collected by the poll. Here is the distribution of outcomes:

So…is Washington going all Wisconsin on us? Are we going to get our own replay of the radical right-wing War on Workers, War on Women, War on Railroads, War on Health Care, and relaxation of child labor laws, seen in other states with newly elected Republican governors? It could be, but not really based on these polls. They are taken way, way too early to have any predictive power for an election held in a year and a half.

If there is any message here, it is that its never too early to start working for the candidate that most closely reflects your vision of what Washington should be.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 4/29/11, 11:30 pm

Maddow: Michigan Gov. thinks Democracy is a problem (via Crooks and Liars).

Thom: Who is organizing the Republican War on Workers?

G.O.P. budget plan having some difficulties at home.

Mitt on Hanging Obama:

Ed and Pap: Boehner is corporate America’s bagman.

GritTV with Thomas Frank: What is happening in the town hall meetings this year?

Ann Telnaes: Privatizing Social Security.

Thom: Republicans organize like KKKrazy to lie.

The Carnival Barker:

The Donald drops a few F-bombs.
The Donald’s obscenity laced rant unbleeped (via Crooks and Liars).
Sam Seder: Trump thinks outsourcing to China is bad…but his own clothing line is made there.
Stephen: Obamas and The Donald (via Crooks and Liars).
Ed and Pap: Trump is the New Village Idiot along with his birfer friends
David Letterman on The Donald (via Slog).
Young Turks: Another racist comment from Trump.
John King: Debate with The Donald.
One proud Carnival Barker (via TalkingPointsMemo).
Liberal Viewer: NBC Trump abortion privacy question made both look bad?
Tweety: Trump’s sorry-ass voting record.

Cenk: Introducing potential radical G.O.P. candidate Rick Santorum.

Ann Telnaes: Sen. Kyl amends the record…

Oklahoma…apparently NOT OK:

Young Turks: Oklahoma KKKrazy.
Oklahoma Rep.: Women and Blacks ‘Lazy’.

White House: West Wing Week.

ONN: Troubled Democrats to undergo party counseling.

Newsy: Ummm…check your watch.

Sam Seder: Atlas bombs.

Long Form Birferism:

Obama: “Ahh…Here.”
Sam Seder: The Birth Certificate
Thom wears a tin foil hat for World Net Daily
Young Turks: Lawrence O’Donnell gives the Birfer Queen The Boot
The Froot Loop® Brigade play with their new toy (via Crooks and Liars).
Mark Fiore: The United States of Reality TV.
Deathers ask, “Is Obama alive?”
Newsy: Did Obama put the Birfer controversy to rest?
Thom does Orly Taitz
Maddow: Donald Trump and the racist roots of ‘birtherism’.
O’Donnell savages the Birfer Queen.
Tweety & friends: Obama wins
Baratunde Thurston’sheartfelt message.
Ed and Pap: Republicans suffer from shared psychotic disorder.
Tweety: ‘Pitch-Fork’ White Nationalist Pat Buchanan says ‘Obama is affirmative action all the way’
Thom goes to town on Philip J. Berg, Birfer Esquire.
Cenk: Does the G.O.P. have a racism problem?

Sam Seder: Gov. Chris Christie revives the Xanadu Project.

Cenk: G.O.P. = The Gas and Oil Party.

Young Turks: Another racist comment from Trump.

Greenman: Climate denial crock of the week…the “trick”:

Ann Telnaes: The Republican’s trickle down economics.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Does Donald Trump have Klinefelter’s syndrome?

by Darryl — Friday, 4/29/11, 10:32 am

The top-dog Carnival Barker has a little memory problem (via The Smoking Gun):

Despite Donald Trump’s claim this week that he avoided serving in the Vietnam War solely due to a high draft number, Selective Service records show that the purported presidential aspirant actually received a series of student deferments while in college and then topped those off with a medical deferment after graduation that helped spare him from fighting for his country, The Smoking Gun has learned.

And after boasting about his unforgettable memory of the period…

“I actually got lucky because I had a very high draft number. I’ll never forget, that was an amazing period of time in my life.”

He went on to recall, “I was going to the Wharton School of Finance, and I was watching as they did the draft numbers and I got a very, very high number and those numbers never got up to.” The word “deferment” was not mentioned by Trump during his chat with the morning show hosts on WNYW, the Fox affiliate in New York City.

…he got it wrong…. Way wrong.

In fact, the December 1969 draft lottery occurred about 18 months after Trump graduated from the University of Pennsylvania, where he studied business at the Wharton School.

The story of Trump’s numerous deferments is interesting, particularly since he has, apparently, forgotten about them entirely when pressed on his lack of military service. It is his final deferment, disqualification after a medical examination, that caught my attention:

October 15, his classification was switched to 1-Y, which was given to men deemed qualified for military service “only in time of national emergency.”

The 1-Y classification came a month after Trump underwent an “Armed Forces Physical Examination,” according to Selective Service records, which note the results of the exam as “DISQ.”

Here is the extract of Trump’s Selective Classification record provided to The Smoking Gun following their TSG records request (click for larger image):

What caught my attention was the line labeled “Entries from Remarks Column” that says, simply, “YXX”.

Huh? Would that be YXX as in one extra X chromosome? The condition, called Klinefelter syndrome, is not uncommon–it occurs in somewhere from 0.1% to 0.2% of males. Aside from having an extra X chromosome, these are symptoms of Klinefelter syndrome:

Abnormal body proportions (long legs, short trunk, shoulder equal to hip size)
Abnormally large breasts (gynecomastia)
Infertility
Sexual problems
Less than normal amount of pubic, armpit, and facial hair
Small, firm testicles
Tall height

Hmmm….

Among other things, the syndrome increases ones risk of attention deficient hyperactivity disorder, autoimmune disorders, depression, and learning disabilities (including dyslexia).

Hmmm….

So, while I cannot be certain the “YXX” note really means Trump was disqualified because he suffers a chromosomal disorder, it would explain the medical disqualification. And his lousy memory!

And the only way to know for sure is for Trump to—you got it—release his medical records. Otherwise, we will never know whether the Republican’s latest star candidate has a chromosomal disease….

Obama’s crime

by Darryl — Thursday, 4/28/11, 10:19 am

Yesterday I was joking with a friend about how relieved I was to learn that Obama was born in Hawaii, and my friend says, “Why did he wait so long to release his birth certificate?”

“What the fuck????” was my response.

Okay…there are probably many Americans who don’t obsessively follow politics who really don’t know that Obama released his official birth certificate in 2008. The media isn’t helping all that much by discussing “long form” and “short form.”

There is no such thing as a “long form” and a “short form” birth certificate in Hawaii. (Even the fucking White House uses the terminology wrong.) “Long form” and “short form” are Birfer fictions. So why the hell should anyone surrender to the inaccurate framing coming from the nut cases? So let’s try to get it right.

The birth certificate that Obama released in 2008 is THE official birth certificate currently provided by Hawaii. Anyone born in Hawaii who purchases a copy of their birth certificate gets a similar computer generated birth certificate. It is not the “short form.” It is just the current form.

Hawaii does not currently produce an official, legal document that contains an image of the vault copy of the birth records. This is old news, but was verified again this week by CNN. A person CAN acquire an image of the vault copy of the birth certificate, but it is not a valid, certified document. It’s cannot be used for purposes like acquiring a passport.

There is one exception to that.

President Obama asked for a waiver of Hawaii’s practices in order to get a birth certificate bearing an image of the vault copy of his birth certificate. Loretta Fuddy, Hawaii’s Director of Health responded to the request:

…in recognition of your status of President of the United States, I am making an exception to the current departmental policy, which is to issue a computer generated certified copy.

I’m sure that someone will suggest that Obama must now be impeached for outrageously “pulling strings.” Yes…for Obama-haters this “abuse of power” will be a tangible charge to use against him for his real crime: Presiding while Black.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 4/26/11, 5:41 pm

Please join us tonight for an evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but feel free to join some of us for an earlier dinner.

Not in Seattle? There is a good chance you live near one of the 223 other chapters of Drinking Liberally.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 4/22/11, 11:46 pm

Young Turks: Obama v. some reporter.

Garfunkel and Oats: Weed Card:

EARTH DAY 2011:

Mark Fiore: Little Green Man.
White House: Earth Day questions from the south lawn.

Newsy: G.O.P. struggles to find a candidate for POTUS.

Laura Flanders: Demonizing taxes and heightening inequality.

Young Turks: Sarah Palin’s disapproval is 61%. Oh…that’s in Alaska!

Seriously Trumped Up:

Trump fuels birfer madness
Newsy: G.O.P. attacks The Donald.
Young Turks: The Donald attacks Jerry Seinfeld.
TYT Network: Birfer king!
Young Turks: Trump’s idiotic oil ideas.
Ed: The Donald!
Thom: Trump and his hair were born in South Africa?!?
Ann Telnaes: The Donald’s foreign policy.
Trump with sage words on gasoline, China and jobs.
Young Turks: Is The Donald too stupid to be a racist?
Sarah Palin sticks up for The Donald.
Lawrence O’Donnell: The Donald gets confused over right to privacy.

The “Don’t say Gay” bill introduced in Tennessee.

South Carolina teabaggers speak up:

Cenk: Boehner appoints high-priced lawyer ($520 per HOUR) to defend DOMA.

Nutcase Pastor Terry Jones accidentally fires his gun after meeting with Imam (via Crooks and Liars).

Apple Tracks:

Rep. Inslee (D-WA) wants answers from Apple.
Sen. Franken (D-MN) to Apple: You got some ‘splaining to do on iPhone tracking (via Crooks and Liars).
ONN: Should the nation’s unemployed buy new Apple computers?

TYT Network: Glenn Beck’s corn cow conspiracy.

White House: West Wing Week.

“Family Values” Sen. John Ensign Resigns:

Maddow: Sen. Ensign resigns over sex scandal.
Cenk: Sen. John Ensign’s C street connections.
Newsy: Sen. Ensign decides to resign afterall.
Young Turks: Sen. Ensign goes down!

Young Turks: The James O’Keefe “music video”.

Pap on FAUX News crushes opponent on “fair tax” issue.

ONN week in review: 268 feral cats removed from U.N Headquarters.

Cenk: Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS) making outrageous statements about his state’s health care.

Maddow: The idiotic Bush color coded alert system is no more. Kiss your Terror Rainbow goodbye!

U.S. Budget:

Cenk with Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA): Some Town Hall “issues” over killing Medicare
Ed: The G.O.P. holds the country hostage over debt ceiling.
Obama: Town hall on America’s fiscal policy
Ann Telnaes: Rep. Ryan criticizes Obama budget speech.
Pap and Ed: Republicans “budget plan” and their Ayn Rand fetish.
Ed: The Republican “plan”
Cenk: G.O.P. plan to kill Medicare is a DISASTER (for Republicans).
Lawrence O’Donnell: Greenspan says, “Go back to Clinton”. Oops!
Liberal Viewer: Republican budget fail!
Ann Telnaes: Republican budget defense.
Jon: Slashdance…The Dem deficit reduction plan (via OneGoodMove).

Young Turks: Former Gov. Gary Johnson says end child labor laws.

Thom: Atlas Shrugged.

Laura Flanders: Another bad effect of the Citizens United decision:

Young Turks: The Glenn Beck comedy show.

Teabaggers get excited some times (via Crooks and Liars).

Newsy: Gov. Brewer vetoes birfer bill.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

NPI Fundraiser

by Darryl — Friday, 4/22/11, 10:36 am

The Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI) has been a strong voice in the progressive activist community in the Northwest for over seven years. One of their early projects was a set of tools for progressive bloggers that enabled them to connect, share ideas and information, and disseminate their work. In past years, they have put together a number of influential workshops that brought bloggers together and put bloggers in touch with politicians (I’ve attended a number of them). NPI has also been a strong, consistent voice against Tim “Biggest Lie of my Life” Eyman’s abuse of the initiative process in Washington.

On Thursday, April 28th, NPI is holding its Spring Fundraising Gala at the Community Center at Mercer View, 82346 SE 24th Street on Mercer Island (map). The reception begins at 6:30 PM and the main program begins at 7:15 PM.

This is your chance to hang out with other folks in the progressive community over a buffet dinner. There will be music by Don Mock. Featured speakers are Rep. Jay Inslee, State Rep. Reuven Carlyle, Timothy Ford, Peter Steinbrueck, and Scott Macklin. And Bob Ferguson will be the Master of Ceremonies.

You can find information about tickets and whatnot on the NPI web page.

HA service issues resolved?

by Darryl — Wednesday, 4/20/11, 4:24 pm

HA has been experiencing server difficulties for, what…two weeks now?

The ISP has pinned the blame on a rogue router. They replaced it this afternoon. So no more problems, eh?

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 4/19/11, 5:26 pm

It’s finally starting to feel like spring around here! And maybe it is just me, but it sure feels like political passions are beginning to stir among us liberals. Let’s talk about it.

Not in Seattle? There is a good chance you live near one of the 222 other chapters of Drinking Liberally.

Birfer Madness!

by Darryl — Tuesday, 4/19/11, 12:56 pm

Sweet Jesus! You know the Wingnuts have huddled on the right-most precipice of crazy when Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer has to step in as the voice of moderation:

Calling it “a bridge too far,” Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer on Monday vetoed the state legislature’s controversial “birther bill” and also rejected a bill that would have permitted guns on college campuses.

The bill to permit guns on college campuses wasn’t so much about moderation as it was about poor authorship:

The bill would have initially allowed guns to be brought into classrooms, but was revised to limit gun possession to sidewalks and roads on campuses.

Brewer told Fox News that while she is usually a supporter of pro-gun legislation, she vetoed the bill because it “was just very poorly and sloppily written and it just was not defined in the manner of which people could interpret it or could it be enforced.”

In smacking down Teh Birfers Brewer expressed some concern…

“I never imagined being presented with a bill that could require candidates for president of the greatest and most powerful nation on earth to submit their ‘early baptismal or circumcision certificates’ among other records to the Arizona secretary of state,” she said in the letter. “This is a bridge too far.”

Huh? So Arizona lawmakers wanted the presidency limited to folks who have undergone genital mutilation and practice a subset of religions that baptize infants?

For infidels who are neither circumscribed nor baptized as infants, perhaps an original invitation to the placenta feast would work?

Well…good on Jan, although she may have ulterior motives—I just guessin’ she does not have an official ~~Certificate of Circumcision~~ Circumcision Certificate.

Arizona Sen. John McCain, who really wasn’t born in the United States, applauds.

But Teh Crazy is being upheld by Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal:

Gov. Bobby Jindal would sign a bill requiring presidential candidates to provide a copy of their birth certificate to qualify for the Louisiana ballot if it reaches his desk, a spokesman said Monday.

A spokesman says Gov. Bobby Jindal will sign a bill to require presidential candidates to provide a birth certificate as proof of citizenship.
“It’s not part of our package, but if the Legislature passes it we’ll sign it,” press secretary Kyle Plotkin said.

(And if the birfer legislation is part of the package, one must wonder if the candidate’s package would be part of the legislation.)

And Indiana is considering joining the Birferati:

Indiana Senator Mike Delph is seeking a summer study committee review of whether Indiana should require Presidential candidates to prove they meet the constitutional requirements of age, residency and citizenship.

(And The Donald is just getting warmed up, while awaiting the results from his investigative teams in Hawaii and Kenya.)

So…maybe not such a bad day for Birfers. In fact, it is turning out to be a downright joyous day, since a new Public Policy Polling poll of Iowa Republicans found:

There is a significant birther presence in Iowa- 48% of Republican voters say they don’t think Barack Obama was born in the United States…

I hear placenta makes an excellent pizza topping.

Who’s left for the G.O.P.?

by Darryl — Monday, 4/18/11, 11:02 am

The Republicans are sure waging a shit-load of wars against Americans.

Consider just last week. First the House Republicans:

…approved two resolutions that would amend the FY 2011 spending bill to block funding designated for Planned Parenthood and last year’s healthcare law. But House passage is largely symbolic, as the Senate did not pass either of the bills.

After that, House Republicans passed Rep. Ryan’s budget bill that privatizes Medicare, radically cuts the federal contribution to Medicaid, creates even more tax cuts for the rich and some corporations, and repeals health care reforms. The bill is DOA in the Senate, not to mention the Oval Office. And it should be DOA to most Americans.

One half the population ought to be outraged at the Republican’s War on Women. And add to that a lot non-women folk who like to fuck without making babies. Many of these non-women appreciate that Planned Parenthood provides help with that. In other words, a big chunk of young voting-age (or almost voting-age) Americans should be repulsed by these senseless political attacks on Planned Parenthood.

It is hard to imagine that senior citizens can be big fans of higher out-of-pocket insurance costs proposed in Ryan’s Medicare privatization bill to fund tax cuts for the rich. Some Seniors must find Rep. Dave Reichert’s War on AARP a little unsettling.

The poor, the disabled? I cannot believe they enjoyed being screwed by the Republicans.

All this comes on top of prior alienation. African Americans? Pretty much lost to the G.O.P. already. Hispanics? There was a small blip in increased support in 2010, but still down about 22% on average. And union members? Yeah…like they’re going to forgive and forget the War on Workers playing out in Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana, Florida, Maine, Michigan, etc. The LGBT communities? Not really big supporters.

Republicans have lost the old, the young, the poor and disadvantaged, women, workers, and the nation’s largest minority groups. So who’s left?

Rich White Guys. That’s who.

Oh…yeah. Corporations, too.

But Republicans are not going to be voted out of office en masse. Even if a huge majority of Americans would be financially hurt by G.O.P. legislation, and even if they are morally opposed to the extremist agenda of the current crop of batshit crazy Republicans, Americans will still vote against their economic self-interest and moral principles. The Republicans will offer to rape them; they will assent.

Why? Some people are not paying attention. And other people are easily swayed. There is almost no harm that can be proposed or undertaken by Republicans that cannot be undone with enough money in the weeks leading up to an election.

Apparently Republicans have done this calculation, and they have concluded that the money infused by Rich White Guys and Wealthy Corporations over the next few elections will overcome the losses incurred by their all-out assault on most Americans.

Have they erred in their calculations?