Public Policy Polling has released polling results in the 2012 Washington state gubernatorial race. Their press release gets right to the point:
McKenna, Inslee basically tied for WA Gov.
[…]The most likely match up for Governor of Washington next year looks like it would be a barn burner, with Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna starting out with just a 40-38 lead over Democratic Congressman Jay Inslee. With 23% of Democrats and only 13% of Republicans undecided at this point that looks like a sheer toss up.
The main reason McKenna is ahead of Inslee at this point is slightly higher name recognition.
(The same poll finds Inslee beating Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA-08) handily, 42% to 36%.)
McKenna is the more recognized brand right now, with 60% of respondents having formed an opinion of him, whereas only 51% have formed an opinion on Inslee.
What I found interesting in the crosstabs is that, in a McKenna—Inslee match-up, groups likely to support Inslee have higher “uncertain” responses:
- Liberals 31%, conservatives 28%
- Women 25%, men 18%
- Democrats 23%, Republicans 13%
- 18-29 year olds 24%, about 13% for older voters
Thus it seems support for Inslee has the greater growth potential as name recognition improves.