During his campaign announcement speech, gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna (R) was all about education. The only problem is…he has no way to fund the pricey stuff he proposed:

“Rob McKenna’s $5.76 billion education plan flunks basic math,” said Aaron Ostrom, Executive Director of Fuse Washington, the state’s largest progressive organization. “He’s trying to fool voters with a smoke and mirrors plan that even he himself has labeled ‘hard to fathom.'”

McKenna made two specific and ambitious spending proposals:

• Doubling higher education spending from 8 percent ($2.56 billion) to 16 percent ($5.12 billion) of the state’s $32 billion budget, an increase of $2.56 billion.
• Growing public education’s share of the budget from 41 percent ($13.12 billion) to 51 percent ($16.32 billion), an additional increase of $3.2 billion.

In total, Rob McKenna proposed $5.76 billion in new spending in just one hour – $600 million more than the budget deficit the Legislature spent nearly five months working to close.

To pay for it, McKenna has two modest proposals…. Regardless of the merits or feasibility of either proposal, combined they would pay for just 13 percent of McKenna’s new spending.

McKenna is also relying on revenue assumptions that don’t pass muster, even with himself. When pushed by several reporters after his speech, McKenna admitted he was also relying on the estimated 13 percent growth in government revenue (approximately $4 billion) for the next biennium.

Big talk…zero chance of realizing it—the math just doesn’t pan out. Man…that McKenna sure has difficulties when it comes to mathematics!

But who do educators actually support? Well, it is a little early to say for sure, but Publicola’s Josh Feit made an interesting observation:

Inslee raised nearly $10,000 from teachers and educators—not the union, just individual teachers, about 30 of them. McKenna has raised just $850 from teachers, a low number for a candidate who’s stumping on education issues.

Two hypotheses:

1. Educators find Jay Inslee to be the more appealing candidate, and we might expect a roughly similar 10:1 ratio of donations from educators to Inslee:McKenna in the future.
2. It’s a one-time anomaly. Inslee’s just received a transient surge of donations from appalled math teachers.

Which one is right? Beats the hell out of me. I report, you decide.

Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) tells the Republicans to stop acting like children because otherwise real people are going to get hurt:

“The possibility that seniors could be denied Social Security benefits is frightening,” Murray said. “Rather than accuse the President of scare tactics, my Republican colleagues should tell the extreme voices in their own party that it is time to act responsibly.”
[…]

“Senate Republicans have put us in this position by walking away from every attempt at finding a long-term solution to our national debt….They continue to deny that their irresponsible actions will have real consequences for the American people. This is not about bumper sticker politics. This is about real people, who could be hurt if Republicans fail to act reasonably and responsibly.”

In the mean time, presidential wannabe Michele Bachmann says both stupid and crazy things:

“This is a misnomer, that I think the President and the Treasury Secretary have been trying to pass off to the American people, and it’s this: that if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling by $2.5 trillion that somehow the United States will default and we will lose the full faith and credit of the United States…”

“That is simply not true. Revenue will continue to come in to the United States Treasury. It’s merely the President’s obligation and the Congress’s to make sure that the interest is paid on the debt. We’re grateful that revenues are sufficient to be able to pay interest on the debt.”

This is stupid, on one level, because of Ms. “J.D. from Oral Roberts University” mistaken use of “misnomer”. A “misnomer” is an error in naming something, whereas I suspect she wanted to use the word “misunderstanding.”

But it is stupid on another level by the fact that she is misinformed. Since mid-May the U.S. Treasury has been tapping its fiscal buffers—shifting money around between its bank accounts and delaying pension contributions—all this so that the government’s bills get paid.

In August, the buffer runs out. The government will have to borrow money in order to pay all of its bills, because revenues will fall substantially short of the bills owed. And there are no more buffers.

Sure…we can pay military families, pay service on the debt, and a few other things. But about 1/2 of the Government’s bills will go unpaid as of Aug 2. The LA Times runs down the numbers:

In August, the government is expected to collect about $172 billion in revenue and will face about $307 billion in bills, according to an analysis by the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington think tank. So, in theory, the government would have the money to pay a little more than 55% of its bills during the month. But which bills to pay? Interest on existing debt comes to just under $30 billion, Social Security checks are $50 billion, Medicare is another $50 billion, payments to military contractors for weapons, fuel and other costs comes to $32 billion and salaries for active-duty military personnel come to about $3 billion. Add in unemployment benefits ($13 billion for the month), and the government would already have run out of money without paying a single civilian employee or running any of its domestic programs, including courts, disaster relief, national parks, veterans benefits or welfare programs.

However you slice it up, some bills will not get paid, and a lot of people will be hurt in the process.

A second, and perhaps the worst, effect will be the long-term impact on bond interest rates:

The federal government has been able to borrow money at very low interest rates because investors around the world look at U.S. government securities as a very safe place to put their money. If the government’s ability to pay its bills came into question, the people who buy bonds almost certainly would demand a higher interest rate. That would ripple quickly through the economy. In a letter to Congress and the president Tuesday, the Business Roundtable, Chamber of Commerce and other business leaders warned: “Treasury securities influence the cost of financing not just for companies but more importantly for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and student debt. A default would risk both disarray in those markets and a host of unintended consequences.”

Bachmann’s error is believing that a failure to pay your bills on time doesn’t affect your credit rating.

That belief is ignorant. And that ignorance poses a clear danger to our country.

Please join us tonight for drinks, conversation, and dinner at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

Tonight we will be joined by state Rep. Roger Goodman (D-45 LD). Rep. Goodman is running for Congress in Washington’s 1st CD, the seat currently held by Rep. Jay Inslee.

We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but a few folks show up earlier for dinner.

Special Event: Tonight from 6:00pm to 8:00pm there will be a public hearing on King County Transit service cuts. The meeting will be held in the King County Council Chambers, 516 Third Avenue, 10th Floor, Seattle. If you can make it, please stop by DL afterward and share your experience and insights with the rest of us.

Can’t make it tonight? With 229 chapters of Living Liberally, chances are good that there is one near you.

Will the Republicans come up with a credible challenger to Sen. Maria Cantwell for 2012? The topic came up at Drinking Liberally last week, and I’ve been been thinking about it on and off since then. Specifically…who?

Jim Brunner puts together a good analysis. At this point, the big challenge for any potential Republican is money. The clock is running. Cantwell is raising money. Her non-existent Republican opponent isn’t.

Former Washington state Republican Chairman Chris Vance has the political side figured out. (I like how he is able to say reality-based stuff that current Chairman Kirby Wilbur could never say):

“[R]ight now, it’s very much in doubt whether there is going to be a strong candidate.”

“The Republican brand got hammered on the West Coast during the Bush years, and it has not recovered….There are just so many more Democrats than Republicans in Washington state right now — the math just becomes very difficult.”

and

“If a Republican is going to have any chance to beat Cantwell, they have to immediately and sharply distance themselves from the national Republican Party”

Brunner offers three possible challengers: Susan Hutchison, who lost a race for King County Executive to Ron Sims Dow Constantine in 2009, Rep. Dave Reichert, and Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant.

Not impressive.

Dino! Your party needs you!

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

The Pentagon is Worst Person in the World.

The final shuttle launch:

Liberal Viewer: FOX News admits bias to attack Media Matters?

Maddow: Ninth Circuit Court bars DADT enforcement.

Young Turks: GOP voter suppression like Jim Crow laws.

White House: West Wing Week.

Independence Day:

• Obama on the 4th of July.
• Newsy: The 4th and the Founding Fathers
• White House 4th of July.

Olbermann: Will Newscorp survive the scandal?

Rep. Jim McDermott’s summer reading list.

The Last Word: FOX Murdoch’s News of the World scandal.

Pap: How the G.O.P. is trying to fool African Americans.

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and the Miasmatically Ugly.

Ann Telnaes: Republicans refuse to negotiate on debt.

Thom: Republicans have destroyed the American way.

Young Turks: Republican Senator Orrin Hatch argues that the Poor don’t pay enough taxes.

Palin Around with Crazy:

• Olbermann reads some Sarah Palin Poetry:
• Young Turks: Bristol on her stolen virginity on The View

Thom: Is Bachmann’s Christianity radical even for evangelicals?.

Mark Fiore: Trickle-down Tales.

Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) on Clean energy.

The Daily Show’s best 2nd Amendment moments.

Thom with John Dean: How to get rid of Justice Thomas.

Rep. Jim McDermott’s summer reading list.

Pap: The criminal activities of Justice Thomas.

Young Turks: Slave labor for Wisconsin?

The POTUS Tweets.

Ed: Psychotalk from FOX’s David Asman accusing young Obama of gaming college system.

Oil Spill in Montana:

• Thom: Governor Brian Schweitzer (D-MT) on the river oil spill.
• Young Turks: An oil spill in Montana

What have unions ever done for us? (Via Slog.):

Ohio State Rep. Robert Mecklenborg is Worst Person in the World.

The Daily Show’s Best 14th Amendment moments.

Ann Telnaes: Sen McConnell on raising taxes.

White House: Impressions on the Twitter Town Hall.

The G.O.P. Candidate Asylum:

• Ed: Mitt doublespeak.
• Does Mitt thing nobody is paying attention to his own words?!?
• Santorum’s major math FAIL (via Slog).
• Olbermann: Santorum and Romney gaffe-fest.
• Ed: Psycho-ignorance from Rick Santorum.
• Bachmann hopes high unemployment will help her campaign (via Crooks and Liars).
• Ed: Michele & Marcus Bachmann’s record of intolerance, homophobioa and bigotry:
• Young Turks: Santorum’s very bad math.
• Ed: Allentown Mayor blasts the Mittster.
• Maddow: The crazies vs. the Rombots.
• Young Turks: Michele Bachmann on women being submissive to their husband.
• Last Word: The Right-wing anti-porn pledge.
• Maddow: Klansman David Duke to run for President as a Republican and other strange G.O.P. tales

Ed with some Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) psychotalk.

Young Turks: Michele Bachmann’s anti-Porn vow.

Thom: Republicans ran up the bill…now they don’t want to pay.

Some airline employee is Worst Person in the World.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

The NWroots conference is tomorrow (July 9th).

Speakers:

• Attorney, Rhodes Scholar, and community leader Cyrus Habib
• Undocumented immigrant/UW graduate Alonso Chehade
• Congressional candidate Jay Clough
• Congressional candidate Roger Goodman
• Washington State Labor Council President Jeff Johnson
• Rep. Jim McDermott
• Rep. Jay Inslee
• Rep. Dennis Kucinich
• Former Canadian Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh

Music: Irthlingz and the Total Experience Gospel Choir.

Registration: Registration/breakfast begins at 7:30am, $50 ($25 students). Or register online.

When: The conference is from 8:30am to 5:30pm.

Where: Comedy Underground in Seattle’s Pioneer Square.

Food: The conference includes breakfast at Swannies & lunch at Fx McRory’s.

The King County Young Republicans met at the North Bellevue Community Center last night to hear Rob McKenna speak. It didn’t go as planned.

The event was held in a public venue, advertised openly, and had a speaker who represents the state as an elected official and is also a high-profile public candidate.

Zach Wurtz, a videographer for the Washington State Democrats, who, I suspect, has been hired to record all of McKenna’s public appearances, showed up to record McKenna.

McKenna stopped and asked the man who he was with. The man gave his name, Zach Wurtz, and said he was with the Washington State Democrats. The Young Republicans club president, Jennifer Fetters, asked him to leave. Nope. McKenna told Wurtz to turn off the camera. Wurtz refused. McKenna’s voice got sharper, “Turn it off. Now!”

After further intimidation didn’t succeed in shutting down Wurtz’s camera, the cops were called. They took a long time to get there.

In the mean time…

McKenna stepped outside by the cupcake table.

Really?!? He escaped the scary video man by seeking safe harbor at the “cupcake table”? That’s simply precious!

One big advantage that McKenna has over Dino Rossi is that he’s far more adorable! I mean, you have to admit, retreating like a frightened boy to the cupcake table is a lot more endearing than, say, putting your goons to work on the videographer. So good call on the cupcake table, Rob.

McKenna apparently realized that he could not prevent the recording of political activity in a public place, because he never gave his speech.

Question: Why the hell couldn’t McKenna give his talk in the presence of “the enemy.” What’s he hiding? Was McKenna prepared to tell the Young Republicans things that he could never say to the general public?

Is McKenna, say, talking like Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker behind closed doors, and then goes all smiles and cupcakes before the general public?

And what is this bullshit about not being video tapped? It’s now routine for campaigns to shadow each other. McKenna and Inslee should expect that all of their appearances will be recorded, scrutinized and, if something controversial is said, publicized.

Deal with it, Rob! You won’t always have a cupcake table to fall back on.

The Publicola story points out that Wurtz was forcibly removed from McKenna’s announcement press conference. Goldy was denied admission as well in his role as a reporter for The Stranger.

Knock it the fuck off! The “friendly room” strategy didn’t work for Rossi, and it isn’t likely to work for McKenna, either.

An Elway poll taken last week and released today has some not-so-bad and some not-so-good news for Rob McKenna (via Publicola).

But first the not-so-bad news for McKenna. The poll didn’t really do a typical head-to-head between Jay Inslee and McKenna. Rather, they took a smorgasbord approach (rotating the order of answers, of course):

Several candidates may run for Governor next year. As things stand today, whom would you support if the candidates were:

• Republican Rob McKenna
• Republican Bill Bryant
• Republican Clint Didier
• Democrat Dow Constantine
• Democrat Lisa Brown
• Democrat Aaron Reardon
• Democrat Jay Inslee
• Democrat Brian Sonntag

The not-so-bad part for McKenna is that he took 20% to Inslee’s 17%. But with five Dems to three G.O.P. names on the list, and about half the respondents offering no opinion, the question does little beyond assessing the potential viability of any candidates besides Inslee and McKenna.

(The answer: none shows any potential. Still, Mr. Didier, don’t let numbers and reality stand between you and the Governor’s mansion!)

The not-so-good news for McKenna came from another question:

Asked which type of candidate they were most likely
to support, 48% said a Democrat and 36% said a 
Republican. More specifically: 

• 22% said a “liberal Democrat” 
• 26% said a “moderate Democrat”  
• 16% said a “moderate Republican” and  
• 20% said a “conservative Republican. 

McKenna has spent years cultivating his image as a moderate Republican. He has shown remarkable discipline doing so.

But it was a single decision to “go rogue” in joining a lawsuit against the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act—action he took against the wishes of the Governor and the legislature—that will prevent him from gaining the support of independents and moderate Democrats.

So, the not-so-good news is less good than the not-so-bad new, which isn’t really so good anyway.

The Seattle Weekly gets UW political science Prof. Matt Barreto’s take on the 2012 election. (Prof. Barreto is frequently heard on KUOW discussing elections and election results, and he is the director of the Washington Poll.)

Here’s his take on what will happen in Washington state:

“I think in the presidential election Obama will win handily, Cantwell could end up winning by 15 points, and the governor’s race will come down to the wire.”

“In 2008 Gregoire had a pretty sizable win thanks to the huge pro-Obama vote. Obama is likely to be elected by a big margin, but he’s unlikely to have that kind of enthusiasm. And if there’s not a big enthusiasm vote for Obama, McKenna could eek out a win.”

The Inslee—McKenna race will be one of the hottest contests in the country, and the Obama campaign knows it. So don’t be surprised if Obama makes several high-profile visits to Washington state during election season.

Sure…we’re always something of an ATM machine for Democratic candidates. But most importantly, visits by Obama will help generate the enthusiasm needed to put Inslee in the Governor’s mansion.

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but feel free to join some of us for an earlier dinner.

Can’t make it tonight? Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets on Thursday, July 7th 7:00pm at the Hub Restaurant.

Special Event:

The NWroots Conference will be held this Saturday, July 9th at the Comedy Underground in Seattle’s Pioneer Square. Speakers include attorney, Rhodes Scholar, and community leader Cyrus Habib, undocumented immigrant/UW graduate Alonso Chehade, Congressional candidates Jay Clough and Roger Goodman, Washington State Labor Council President Jeff Johnson, Congressmen Jim McDermott, Jay Inslee, and Dennis Kucinich, and former Canadian Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh.

Musical performances by Irthlingz and the Total Experience Gospel Choir round out the event.

The conference is $50 ($25 students), includes breakfast at Swannies & lunch at Fx McRory’s. Registration/breakfast begins at 7:30am. The conference is from 8:30am to 5:30pm.

You can find more information about the conference and register to attend here.

State Auditor Brian Sonntag has been contemplating a run for Governor, a move that would have left open another statewide office. Apparently, his 4th of July weekend self-performance audit convinced him otherwise. It appears he will run for a 6th term as State Auditor, instead.

Sonntag would have little chance of winning against Rob McKenna (R) and Jay Inslee (D). Sandeep Kaushik gives three reasons why a person who has been elected to statewide office five times wouldn’t successfully pull off a gubernatorial bid: The top two primary, money, and giving up a safe seat. The latter appears to have kept him from the race altogether.

Sonntag is nominally a Democrat, with a track record that includes things like endorsing Republican King County Executive candidate Susan Hutchison, snuggling spooning blowing Tim Eyman, and participating in Teabagger events.

We can only hope that the buzz about a potential Sonntag gubernatorial bid has encouraged some talented people to think about running for the open Auditor seat. And with any luck, they’ll still run, but now against Sonntag. Otherwise, I’m afraid, Sonntag will maintain his grip on the State Auditor’s office…well, until it’s pried out of his cold, dead hands.

Ann Telnaes: Sen. McConnell on raising taxes.

Thom: Will Ronald McDonald be added to Mt. Rushmore?

Maddow calls out Romney’s lie.

Glenn Beck Finally Goes the Fuck Away:

• A requiem for a Rodeo Clown (via Media Matters).
• Beck’s final show in ninety seconds (via TalkingPointsMemo).
• Newsy: Glenn Beck is gone, but no deed to “dispair”.
• O’Donnell: The end of a 2.5 year mistake
• Cenk: Glenn goes away

Goldman Sachs CEO outsources his way to Worst Person in the World.

Cenk: FAUX News’ Nixon roots.

Maddow: Koch Bros killing unions.

Thom and Jim Hightower: Gov Rick Perry is the Koch brother’s new poster boy?.

Palin Around with Crazy:

• Newsy: Teh Undefeated.
• Sarah and Bristol’s pathetic draw at Mall of America

Olbermann defines FOX Populi.

President Obama welcomes the Seattle Storm:

Thom: Proof that Rich people aren’t the job creators!

Some Flake Announces:

• Newsy: Bachmann makes it official.
• Young Turks: Is Michele Bachmann ripping off Sarah Palin?
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Bachmann’s ding-bat economic plan.
• Olbermann: Why Bachmann is a flake.
• Young Turks: Michele Bachmann’s founding fathers BS.
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Bachmann tries to rewrite the history of slavery.
• Newsy: Will Bachmann’s gaffes hurt her
• Cenk: Bachmann’s misuse of government funds.
• Stephen: American heroes Michele Bachmann and John Wayne (Gacy).
• Young Turks: Is Michele Bachmann’s pro-life story believable?
• Sam Seder: Tom Petty slaps Michele Bachmann with cease and desist.
• Young Turks: Michele Bachmann’s conservative christian husband.

Thom performs an an Exorcism on the GOP.

Seattle cop leaves assault weapon on top of car.

Head of TSA is Worst Person in the World.

Maddow: Arguments over the years against the ERA.

More Jon and FAUX:

• Jon eviscerates Jon.
• Liberal Viewer: Jon Stewart, FOX News argue if 2 wrongs make a right?

Stephen: Ted Nugent is hopping mad that youth aren’t joining the teaparty.

WTF: Has Mitt Romney ever heard of Teh Google?!?:

Jon on the the GOP candidate doppelgangers.

Tweety: Most Americans still blame Bush for economic hard times.

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Olbermann: Kansas judge delays new abortion law from taking effect .

Cenk: TX Sen. John Cornyn’s batant anti-Obama hypocrisy.

Jon: Debt ceiling debate and the future American dystopia.

Teh Gay Marriage:

• Olbermann with The Stranger’s Dan Savage on what’s next for same-sex marriage.
• Ann Telnaes: Obama’s evolving views on gay marriage.
• Some natural love:
• Jon on gay people getting married
• Some U.S. Senators: It gets better.
• Obama celebrates LBGT month.
• Young Turks: Pat Robertson invokes “angel rape”.

Sam Seder: Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) dealing with two disasters.

Mark Halperin calls Obama “a dick” on national TV.

Olbermann defines fibber-tarian.

Thom with another episode of The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Mark Fiore: A child’s Supreme right to violence.

Thom with Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) on the constitutionality of the debt ceiling.

Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) Runs for Governor:

• Jay Inslee announces.
• Rep. Jay Inslee on marijuana.
• Rep. Jay Inslee on marriage equality.
• Latest gubernatorial candidate is a former Yakima politician
• Rep. Inslee makes a stop in Spokane.

Maddow: Republican war on women in Kansas escalates.

Their Back! The Republican Plan.

Thom: More Republican war on Democracy—the Minnesota shutdown.

Olbermann: Are Republicans trying to sabotage the U.S. economy?

White House: West Wing Week.

ONN: Coal lobby warns that wind farms my blow earth out of orbit.

Maddow: Ohioans unite against Republican Gov. John Kasich’s union-busting bill.

Mr. Colbert’s Excellent FEC Adventure:

• Stephen explains his SuperPAC.
• Mr. Colbert may form his PAC.
• Colbert: “I am a SuperPAC.
• Stephen reflects on his new SuperPAC (via TalkingPointsMemo).
• Newsy: Colbert’s SuperPAC gets FEC approval.

Pap: deniers watching the world burn.

WI Justice Prosser has a hissy-fit with reporter (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Thom: The Supreme court ruling on Campaign Finance.

Young Turks: Herman Cain claims Obama isn’t a “real” black man.

Newsy: Minnesota shuts down.

Sam Seder: Spreading Santorum on Egypt.

Stephen: Should the US get sucked into the quagmire that is the US?

Thom with more Good, Bad and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Today is the day Glenn Beck leaves FOX News (at least that’s what they say…I don’t have cable or a functioning teevee in my home). So it seems only fitting then that today Gawker examines the origins of FOX News:

Republican media strategist Roger Ailes launched Fox News Channel in 1996, ostensibly as a “fair and balanced” counterpoint to what he regarded as the liberal establishment media. But according to a remarkable document buried deep within the Richard Nixon Presidential Library, the intellectual forerunner for Fox News was a nakedly partisan 1970 plot by Ailes and other Nixon aides to circumvent the “prejudices of network news” and deliver “pro-administration” stories to heartland television viewers.

The memo—called, simply enough, “A Plan For Putting the GOP on TV News”— is included in a 318-page cache of documents detailing Ailes’ work for both the Nixon and George H.W. Bush administrations that we obtained from the Nixon and Bush presidential libraries.

I guess we shouldn’t be surprised that the seeds of FOX News were sewn in the Nixon White House.

It explains a lot!

Today the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the constitutionality of the Affordable Healthcare Act.

The court ruled on two of the most important substantive issues that have been raised in dozens of other lawsuits. The first is whether the law falls within the interstate commerce clause of the Constitution:

…the breadth of the substantial effects doctrine and the nature of modern health care favor the validity of this law. No matter how you slice the relevant market—as obtaining health care, as paying for health care, as insuring for health care—all of these activities affect interstate commerce, in a substantial way.

The second question is the constitutionality of the insurance mandate:

Does the Commerce Clause contain an action/inaction dichotomy that limits congressional power? No—for several reasons. First, the relevant text of the Constitution does not contain such a limitation. To the extent “regulate,” “commerce,” “necessary” and “proper” might be words of confinement, the Court has not treated them that way, as long as the objects of federal legislation are economic and substantially affect commerce.

And look who wrote the opinion:

Judge Jeffrey Sutton is a George W. Bush appointee and a former law clerk to conservative Justice Antonin Scalia. He served as an officer in the conservative Federalist Society’s Federalism and Separation of Powers practice group, and was one of the nation’s leading crusaders for expanding the role of the states at the federal government’s expense.

This ruling is significant as it is the first of four pending decisions from Circuit Courts of Appeals on Obamacare. This case originated in the E. Michigan District court as Thomas More Law Center v. Obama in which Judge George Caram Steeh dismissed the lawsuit on the merits. The 6th Circuit Court has now upheld that decision.

There are so many pending lawsuits against the Affordable Healthcare Act that it is difficult to get the big picture. I spent part of this morning trying to get my head wrapped around them. Here is what I came away with.

Besides today’s ruling, there are four other lawsuits at the Circuit Court level.

One of the pending decisions is Florida v. HHS that includes 26 state Attorneys General, including our own Rob McKenna. The law was found to be unconstitutional by Florida District Court Judge Roger Vinson. The ruling was appealed to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, and arguments were heard earlier this month.

Additionally, there are two cases pending in the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals: Virginia v. Sebelius and Liberty University v. Geithner. The former began in the E. Virginia District Court where Judge Henry E. Hudson ruled the law unconstitutional. The latter began in W. Virginia District Court where Judge Norman K. Moon ruled the law constitutional.

The only other ruling on the merits from a District Court comes from Seven-Sky v. Holder heard in the D.C. District court. Judge Gladys Kessler found the law constitutional. The appeal before the D.C. Court of Appeals awaits oral arguments that will take place no earlier than August.

Those are, so far, the only cases where a decision has been made on the merits. The score so far:

• District Courts: constitutional 3; unconstitutional 2
• Circuit Courts: constitutional 1; unconstitutional 0

There are several other cases before Courts of Appeals, New Jersey Physicians v. President just argued in the 3rd, Baldwin v. Sebelius in the 9th that will be argued in July, and Kinder v. Geithner in the 8th that will be heard no earlier than August. My understanding is that these cases were dismissed for lack of standing (not merit), so that a ruling in favor of the the plaintiff would simply send the case back to the District court for a ruling on the merits.

There are six or seven other cases at the District Court level at various stages of litigation. It seems like many of these will be dismissed for lack of standing, but rulings on the merits may well arise from some of them.

Today’s decision is a Big Fucking Deal in that a Judge with a very conservative record authored the majority opinion against the two main “theories” found in many of the other lawsuits. The decision will be binding on one of the current District Court cases, and will likely be be used as an advisory precedent in other cases.

Finally, here in Washington, this decision must be considered something of a blow to gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna (R), who went against the wishes of the Governor and a majority of the people (e.g. the March 2010 Washington Poll) by participating in the AG lawsuit (Florida v. HHS). Indeed, a recent SurveyUSA poll found that 40% of those polled were less likely to support McKenna compared to 36% more likely to support McKenna because of the lawsuit. A loss will make McKenna’s participation look like a quixotic waste of time and resources.

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally meets tonight. There is much to talk about: Jay Inslee is in for Governor, and is leading McKenna in a new poll. Roger Goodman will run for Inslee’s 1st congressional district seat. Secretary of State Sam Reed is out, leaving three open statewide contests for 2012. Oh…and Seattle police leave an assault rifle unattended on a patrol car!

Please join us tonight for drinks, conversation, dinner, and assault weapons tips at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but a few folks show up around 7:00 pm for dinner.

Actual Google News screencapture:

Can’t make it tonight? There will be a special fireworks edition of Drinking Liberally, Newport Hills on the 4th of July. The fun begins at the Mustard Seed, 7:00 PM. Then, at about 8:30 or 9:00, they’ll make a short trip over to Newcastle’s Lake Boren park for the fireworks.

Finally…Have you registered for NWroots on July 9th? First Congressional District candidate Roger Goodman will open up the conference, announce his candidacy, talk a bit about the disastrous war on drugs, then introduce the current 1st District Congressman and gubernatorial candidate, Jay Inslee. Other featured speakers are 4th Congressional Candidate Jay Clough, attorney Cyrus Habib, “dreamer” Also Chehade, Washington State Labor Council President Jeff Johnson, Congressmen Jim McDermott and Dennis Kucinich, and, a special guest from Canada, former Canadian Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh, who will address single payer health care. There will be sessions and panels on the media, health care, immigration, labor, agricultural policy, the mortgage crisis, electronic voting issues, and an excellent 25 minute documentary on Afghanistan. There will be a candidates social, a special musical performance by the Total Experience Gospel Choir, and an after-party at Seattle’s oldest saloon. Find more information and register here.