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Early poll in the Washington gubernatorial race

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A new King 5/SurveyUSA poll of the 2012 Washington state gubernatorial race has Attorney General Rob McKenna (R-WA) leading Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) by +7 (48% to 41%). A match-up with Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA-08) has Reichert slightly ahead of Inslee, 46% to 44%.

The poll also matched up Gov. Christine Gregoire (D-WA). (Right…Like that’s gonna happen.) She’s down 12% to McKenna and 4% to Reichert.

The poll sampled 610 registered voters and has a margin of error of about 4%.

I decided to grease the gears and wind-up the ol’ calculating machine to tabulate some probabilistic outcomes from these poll data. I’ve posted these Monte Carlo analysis on HA for many years now, but in case you want more details, see that (somewhat outdated) FAQ. Here are results for the Inslee match-ups.

In the Inslee versus McKenna race, a million simulated elections has Inslee winning 95,892 times to McKenna’ s 898,897 wins. That is, if the election had been held yesterday, Inslee would have a 9.6% chance of winning, to McKenna’s 90.4% chance. Here is the distribution of outcomes:

2May2011IM

That’s a lot of red.

Less so in the Inslee versus Reichert match-up. Inslee takes 350,198 of the simulated elections to Reichert’s 638,521. That is, Inslee would have about a 35.4% chance of beating Reichert in an election held now, based only on the evidence collected by the poll. Here is the distribution of outcomes:
2May2011IR

So…is Washington going all Wisconsin on us? Are we going to get our own replay of the radical right-wing War on Workers, War on Women, War on Railroads, War on Health Care, and relaxation of child labor laws, seen in other states with newly elected Republican governors? It could be, but not really based on these polls. They are taken way, way too early to have any predictive power for an election held in a year and a half.

If there is any message here, it is that its never too early to start working for the candidate that most closely reflects your vision of what Washington should be.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Maddow: Michigan Gov. thinks Democracy is a problem (via Crooks and Liars).

Thom: Who is organizing the Republican War on Workers?

G.O.P. budget plan having some difficulties at home.

Mitt on Hanging Obama:

Ed and Pap: Boehner is corporate America’s bagman.

GritTV with Thomas Frank: What is happening in the town hall meetings this year?

Ann Telnaes: Privatizing Social Security.

Thom: Republicans organize like KKKrazy to lie.

The Carnival Barker:

Cenk: Introducing potential radical G.O.P. candidate Rick Santorum.

Ann Telnaes: Sen. Kyl amends the record…

Oklahoma…apparently NOT OK:

White House: West Wing Week.

ONN: Troubled Democrats to undergo party counseling.

Newsy: Ummm…check your watch.

Sam Seder: Atlas bombs.

Long Form Birferism:

Sam Seder: Gov. Chris Christie revives the Xanadu Project.

Cenk: G.O.P. = The Gas and Oil Party.

  • Young Turks: Another racist comment from Trump.

    • Greenman: Climate denial crock of the week…the “trick”:

    Ann Telnaes: The Republican’s trickle down economics.

    Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

    Does Donald Trump have Klinefelter’s syndrome?

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    The top-dog Carnival Barker has a little memory problem (via The Smoking Gun):

    Despite Donald Trump’s claim this week that he avoided serving in the Vietnam War solely due to a high draft number, Selective Service records show that the purported presidential aspirant actually received a series of student deferments while in college and then topped those off with a medical deferment after graduation that helped spare him from fighting for his country, The Smoking Gun has learned.

    And after boasting about his unforgettable memory of the period…

    “I actually got lucky because I had a very high draft number. I’ll never forget, that was an amazing period of time in my life.”

    He went on to recall, “I was going to the Wharton School of Finance, and I was watching as they did the draft numbers and I got a very, very high number and those numbers never got up to.” The word “deferment” was not mentioned by Trump during his chat with the morning show hosts on WNYW, the Fox affiliate in New York City.

    …he got it wrong…. Way wrong.

    In fact, the December 1969 draft lottery occurred about 18 months after Trump graduated from the University of Pennsylvania, where he studied business at the Wharton School.

    The story of Trump’s numerous deferments is interesting, particularly since he has, apparently, forgotten about them entirely when pressed on his lack of military service. It is his final deferment, disqualification after a medical examination, that caught my attention:

    October 15, his classification was switched to 1-Y, which was given to men deemed qualified for military service “only in time of national emergency.”

    The 1-Y classification came a month after Trump underwent an “Armed Forces Physical Examination,” according to Selective Service records, which note the results of the exam as “DISQ.”

    Here is the extract of Trump’s Selective Classification record provided to The Smoking Gun following their TSG records request (click for larger image):

    trumpNARA

    What caught my attention was the line labeled “Entries from Remarks Column” that says, simply, “YXX”.

    Huh? Would that be YXX as in one extra X chromosome? The condition, called Klinefelter syndrome, is not uncommon–it occurs in somewhere from 0.1% to 0.2% of males. Aside from having an extra X chromosome, these are symptoms of Klinefelter syndrome:

    • Abnormal body proportions (long legs, short trunk, shoulder equal to hip size)
    • Abnormally large breasts (gynecomastia)
    • Infertility
    • Sexual problems
    • Less than normal amount of pubic, armpit, and facial hair
    • Small, firm testicles
    • Tall height

    Hmmm….

    Among other things, the syndrome increases ones risk of attention deficient hyperactivity disorder, autoimmune disorders, depression, and learning disabilities (including dyslexia).

    Hmmm….

    So, while I cannot be certain the “YXX” note really means Trump was disqualified because he suffers a chromosomal disorder, it would explain the medical disqualification. And his lousy memory!

    And the only way to know for sure is for Trump to—you got it—release his medical records. Otherwise, we will never know whether the Republican’s latest star candidate has a chromosomal disease….

    Obama’s crime

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    Yesterday I was joking with a friend about how relieved I was to learn that Obama was born in Hawaii, and my friend says, “Why did he wait so long to release his birth certificate?”

    “What the fuck????” was my response.

    Okay…there are probably many Americans who don’t obsessively follow politics who really don’t know that Obama released his official birth certificate in 2008. The media isn’t helping all that much by discussing “long form” and “short form.”

    There is no such thing as a “long form” and a “short form” birth certificate in Hawaii. (Even the fucking White House uses the terminology wrong.) “Long form” and “short form” are Birfer fictions. So why the hell should anyone surrender to the inaccurate framing coming from the nut cases? So let’s try to get it right.

    The birth certificate that Obama released in 2008 is THE official birth certificate currently provided by Hawaii. Anyone born in Hawaii who purchases a copy of their birth certificate gets a similar computer generated birth certificate. It is not the “short form.” It is just the current form.

    Hawaii does not currently produce an official, legal document that contains an image of the vault copy of the birth records. This is old news, but was verified again this week by CNN. A person CAN acquire an image of the vault copy of the birth certificate, but it is not a valid, certified document. It’s cannot be used for purposes like acquiring a passport.

    There is one exception to that.

    President Obama asked for a waiver of Hawaii’s practices in order to get a birth certificate bearing an image of the vault copy of his birth certificate. Loretta Fuddy, Hawaii’s Director of Health responded to the request:

    …in recognition of your status of President of the United States, I am making an exception to the current departmental policy, which is to issue a computer generated certified copy.

    I’m sure that someone will suggest that Obama must now be impeached for outrageously “pulling strings.” Yes…for Obama-haters this “abuse of power” will be a tangible charge to use against him for his real crime: Presiding while Black.

    Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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    Young Turks: Obama v. some reporter.

    Garfunkel and Oats: Weed Card:

    EARTH DAY 2011:

    Newsy: G.O.P. struggles to find a candidate for POTUS.

    Laura Flanders: Demonizing taxes and heightening inequality.

    Young Turks: Sarah Palin’s disapproval is 61%. Oh…that’s in Alaska!

    Seriously Trumped Up:

    The “Don’t say Gay” bill introduced in Tennessee.

    South Carolina teabaggers speak up:

    Cenk: Boehner appoints high-priced lawyer ($520 per HOUR) to defend DOMA.

    Nutcase Pastor Terry Jones accidentally fires his gun after meeting with Imam (via Crooks and Liars).

    Apple Tracks:

    TYT Network: Glenn Beck’s corn cow conspiracy.

    White House: West Wing Week.

    “Family Values” Sen. John Ensign Resigns:

    Young Turks: The James O’Keefe “music video”.

    Pap on FAUX News crushes opponent on “fair tax” issue.

    ONN week in review: 268 feral cats removed from U.N Headquarters.

    Cenk: Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS) making outrageous statements about his state’s health care.

    Maddow: The idiotic Bush color coded alert system is no more. Kiss your Terror Rainbow goodbye!

    U.S. Budget:

    Young Turks: Former Gov. Gary Johnson says end child labor laws.

    Thom: Atlas Shrugged.

    Laura Flanders: Another bad effect of the Citizens United decision:

    Young Turks: The Glenn Beck comedy show.

    Teabaggers get excited some times (via Crooks and Liars).

    Newsy: Gov. Brewer vetoes birfer bill.

    Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

    NPI Fundraiser

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    The Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI) has been a strong voice in the progressive activist community in the Northwest for over seven years. One of their early projects was a set of tools for progressive bloggers that enabled them to connect, share ideas and information, and disseminate their work. In past years, they have put together a number of influential workshops that brought bloggers together and put bloggers in touch with politicians (I’ve attended a number of them). NPI has also been a strong, consistent voice against Tim “Biggest Lie of my Life” Eyman’s abuse of the initiative process in Washington.

    On Thursday, April 28th, NPI is holding its Spring Fundraising Gala at the Community Center at Mercer View, 82346 SE 24th Street on Mercer Island (map). The reception begins at 6:30 PM and the main program begins at 7:15 PM.

    This is your chance to hang out with other folks in the progressive community over a buffet dinner. There will be music by Don Mock. Featured speakers are Rep. Jay Inslee, State Rep. Reuven Carlyle, Timothy Ford, Peter Steinbrueck, and Scott Macklin. And Bob Ferguson will be the Master of Ceremonies.

    You can find information about tickets and whatnot on the NPI web page.

    Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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    DLBottle
    It’s finally starting to feel like spring around here! And maybe it is just me, but it sure feels like political passions are beginning to stir among us liberals. Let’s talk about it.

    Please join us tonight for an evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but feel free to join some of us for an earlier dinner.



    Not in Seattle? There is a good chance you live near one of the 222 other chapters of Drinking Liberally.

    Birfer Madness!

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    Sweet Jesus! You know the Wingnuts have huddled on the right-most precipice of crazy when Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer has to step in as the voice of moderation:

    Calling it “a bridge too far,” Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer on Monday vetoed the state legislature’s controversial “birther bill” and also rejected a bill that would have permitted guns on college campuses.

    The bill to permit guns on college campuses wasn’t so much about moderation as it was about poor authorship:

    The bill would have initially allowed guns to be brought into classrooms, but was revised to limit gun possession to sidewalks and roads on campuses.

    Brewer told Fox News that while she is usually a supporter of pro-gun legislation, she vetoed the bill because it “was just very poorly and sloppily written and it just was not defined in the manner of which people could interpret it or could it be enforced.”

    In smacking down Teh Birfers Brewer expressed some concern…

    “I never imagined being presented with a bill that could require candidates for president of the greatest and most powerful nation on earth to submit their ‘early baptismal or circumcision certificates’ among other records to the Arizona secretary of state,” she said in the letter. “This is a bridge too far.”

    Huh? So Arizona lawmakers wanted the presidency limited to folks who have undergone genital mutilation and practice a subset of religions that baptize infants?

    For infidels who are neither circumscribed nor baptized as infants, perhaps an original invitation to the placenta feast would work?

    Well…good on Jan, although she may have ulterior motives—I just guessin’ she does not have an official Certificate of Circumcision Circumcision Certificate.

    Arizona Sen. John McCain, who really wasn’t born in the United States, applauds.

    But Teh Crazy is being upheld by Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal:

    Gov. Bobby Jindal would sign a bill requiring presidential candidates to provide a copy of their birth certificate to qualify for the Louisiana ballot if it reaches his desk, a spokesman said Monday.

    A spokesman says Gov. Bobby Jindal will sign a bill to require presidential candidates to provide a birth certificate as proof of citizenship.
    “It’s not part of our package, but if the Legislature passes it we’ll sign it,” press secretary Kyle Plotkin said.

    (And if the birfer legislation is part of the package, one must wonder if the candidate’s package would be part of the legislation.)

    And Indiana is considering joining the Birferati:

    Indiana Senator Mike Delph is seeking a summer study committee review of whether Indiana should require Presidential candidates to prove they meet the constitutional requirements of age, residency and citizenship.

    (And The Donald is just getting warmed up, while awaiting the results from his investigative teams in Hawaii and Kenya.)

    So…maybe not such a bad day for Birfers. In fact, it is turning out to be a downright joyous day, since a new Public Policy Polling poll of Iowa Republicans found:

    There is a significant birther presence in Iowa- 48% of Republican voters say they don’t think Barack Obama was born in the United States…

    I hear placenta makes an excellent pizza topping.

    Who’s left for the G.O.P.?

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    The Republicans are sure waging a shit-load of wars against Americans.

    Consider just last week. First the House Republicans:

    …approved two resolutions that would amend the FY 2011 spending bill to block funding designated for Planned Parenthood and last year’s healthcare law. But House passage is largely symbolic, as the Senate did not pass either of the bills.

    3prochoice
    After that, House Republicans passed Rep. Ryan’s budget bill that privatizes Medicare, radically cuts the federal contribution to Medicaid, creates even more tax cuts for the rich and some corporations, and repeals health care reforms. The bill is DOA in the Senate, not to mention the Oval Office. And it should be DOA to most Americans.

    One half the population ought to be outraged at the Republican’s War on Women. And add to that a lot non-women folk who like to fuck without making babies. Many of these non-women appreciate that Planned Parenthood provides help with that. In other words, a big chunk of young voting-age (or almost voting-age) Americans should be repulsed by these senseless political attacks on Planned Parenthood.

    It is hard to imagine that senior citizens can be big fans of higher out-of-pocket insurance costs proposed in Ryan’s Medicare privatization bill to fund tax cuts for the rich. Some Seniors must find Rep. Dave Reichert’s War on AARP a little unsettling.
    Was3439790
    The poor, the disabled? I cannot believe they enjoyed being screwed by the Republicans.

    All this comes on top of prior alienation. African Americans? Pretty much lost to the G.O.P. already. Hispanics? There was a small blip in increased support in 2010, but still down about 22% on average. And union members? Yeah…like they’re going to forgive and forget the War on Workers playing out in Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana, Florida, Maine, Michigan, etc. The LGBT communities? Not really big supporters.

    22411StopWarColumnGraphic
    Republicans have lost the old, the young, the poor and disadvantaged, women, workers, and the nation’s largest minority groups. So who’s left?

    Rich White Guys. That’s who.

    Oh…yeah. Corporations, too.

    But Republicans are not going to be voted out of office en masse. Even if a huge majority of Americans would be financially hurt by G.O.P. legislation, and even if they are morally opposed to the extremist agenda of the current crop of batshit crazy Republicans, Americans will still vote against their economic self-interest and moral principles. The Republicans will offer to rape them; they will assent.

    Why? Some people are not paying attention. And other people are easily swayed. There is almost no harm that can be proposed or undertaken by Republicans that cannot be undone with enough money in the weeks leading up to an election.

    Apparently Republicans have done this calculation, and they have concluded that the money infused by Rich White Guys and Wealthy Corporations over the next few elections will overcome the losses incurred by their all-out assault on most Americans.

    Have they erred in their calculations?

    Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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    Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

    Cenk: G.O.P. panic over Obama’s budget speech.

    This Ain’t No Foolin’ Around:

    Cenk: Meet potential G.O.P. candidate Michelle Bachmann.

    Ann Telnaes: The G.O.P.’s anti-abortion, anti-EPA riders.

    Thom: TEA Final.

    Mark Fiore: Little Suzie Newsykins on how to negotiate like a pro.

    Sam Seder: What was in the budget bill?

    Delaware House of Representatives vote in favor of same-sex civil unions.

    Thom: Proof the Chamber has plans to sabotage liberals.

    The Republican War on Workers:

    Young Turks: New poll spells a world of trouble for Republicans.

    White House: West Wing Week.

    Newsy: Kids have the right to heart boobies.

    Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

    ONN Radio News: FBI Chief wishes he had Alien thing to investigate.

    Republican War on Women:

    Young Turks: Conservative rips GOP on abortion, homophobia & hypocrisy.

    Red State Update: Shutdown…oh, nevermind.

    Thom: Election mishap in Wisconsin.

    TYT Now: Jobs killing G.O.P. budget cuts.

    Best House Floor “Speech” EVER?

    Tweety: Santorum defends his anti-gay comments .

    Birfer Trump Card:

    Cenk: G.O.P. flipflops over the debt.

    Nutcase Governor Chris Christie urges reporters to take a bat to a 76 year old (via Crooks and Liars).

    Maddow: Standing up for Medicare.

    ONN Week in Review: Congress votes to cut off step son’s funding.

    Friskin’ the Kiddies:

    Ed: why the rich get richer and poor get poorer.

    Kent, WA Woman sends fake anthrax letter to Obama.

    Run, Mitt, run…away from you Health Care for Everyone Law.

    Reuters: Biden sleeping? (Hey…it’s not like he was working the tower at Boeing Field.)

    Newsy: FAUX connects GWU student suicide to Obama’s visit.

    Premature Pawlenty:

    Ed: The Wingnuts fire back at Obama.

    Young Turks: Republicans BUSTED on 72 hour rule.

    Former Gov. Alan Simpson (R-WY): GOP Is anti-gay, anti-women, and pushes moral values while diddling their secretary:

    Cenk: Myth of the fiscal conservative busted.

    Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very Very Ugly.

    Newsy: Fall-out from sleeping controllers.

    Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

    No Space Shuttle for Seattle

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    Today marks the 50th anniversary of manned space flight and the 30th anniversary of the first Space Shuttle launch. Among other events, NASA Administrator Charles Bolden Jr. is just announcing which museums will receive each of the five retiring Space Shuttles.

    The Pacific Northwest, with its abundance of aviation museums, has two strong contenders among the 21 in the competition.

    The first is, of course, the Museum of Flight at Boeing Field. I don’t need to say much about this, because if you have any interest in aviation, you’ve been there. (And if not, well…you’ve probably stopped reading.)

    Another not-quite-so-well-known regional finalist is the Evergreen Aviation and Space Museum in McMinnville, Oregon. This is the place where Howard Hughes’ Spruce Goose is housed. If you like aviation museums, Evergreen is fantastic. In recent years, the museum has expanded to two main buildings, one for aviation, one for space. They are currently building a water park with an unusual water slide. Here’s a photo I recently took on a dreary March afternoon…

    Waterslide

    Bolden choked up a few times during his introductory speech. Here is the list of awardees:

    Bummer.

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