Please join us tonight for an evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but feel free to join some of us for an earlier dinner.
Not in Seattle? There is a good chance you live near one of the 222 other chapters of Drinking Liberally.
Today marks the 50th anniversary of manned space flight and the 30th anniversary of the first Space Shuttle launch. Among other events, NASA Administrator Charles Bolden Jr. is just announcing which museums will receive each of the five retiring Space Shuttles.
The Pacific Northwest, with its abundance of aviation museums, has two strong contenders among the 21 in the competition.
The first is, of course, the Museum of Flight at Boeing Field. I don’t need to say much about this, because if you have any interest in aviation, you’ve been there. (And if not, well…you’ve probably stopped reading.)
Another not-quite-so-well-known regional finalist is the Evergreen Aviation and Space Museum in McMinnville, Oregon. This is the place where Howard Hughes’ Spruce Goose is housed. If you like aviation museums, Evergreen is fantastic. In recent years, the museum has expanded to two main buildings, one for aviation, one for space. They are currently building a water park with an unusual water slide. Here’s a photo I recently took on a dreary March afternoon…
Bolden choked up a few times during his introductory speech. Here is the list of awardees:
Bummer.
This is what U.S. military spending looks like over a little more than 2 decades:
(Data soure: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.)
So much for the Peace Dividend that followed the end of the Cold War. Apparently, fighting a rag-tag bunch of cave-dwellers requires the same level of funding as keeping up with mighty Soviet Union.
If we want a return to the glory days of a balanced federal budget–you know, like we saw during the last year of the Clinton administration, we should
It’s immoral to allow military spending to increase far greater than inflation, and ask seniors and the disabled to pay for it with their life!
And if you believe that military spending pays us back by stimulating the economy, think again. A study by University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee political scientist Prof. Uk Heo finds:
…a 1 percent increase in the defense spending share of GDP in the United States is expected to lead to a 0.019 percent increase in economic growth over two years. This result indicates that the economic effects of defense spending on growth in the United States are meaningless because the size of the effects is virtually zero.
Military spending, at least at today’s levels, turns out to be a really, really lousy investment.
Lawrence O’Donnell lays into Rep. Tom Graves (R-GA) for being willing to shut down Government to defund Planned Parenthood (via Crooks and Liars).
Obama on the budget agreement:
Sam Seder: Bristol Palin’s big pay day from nonprofit teen pregnancy prevention charity.
Mark Fiore: Terrorist lock-up.
About Glenn Beck:
The difference between Liberal and Conservative brains:
Obama picks Debbie Wasserman Schultz to lead the DNC.
Thom: Hate speech and free speech.
ONN: Internet outage forces public into street to voice inane opinions.
Wisconsin Election Madness:
Thom: The Good, the Bad and the Very Very Ugly.
Sam Seder: What will happen when the Government shuts down?
Maddow: Criminally phoney elections?
Pap: What Monsanto chemicals are in your food?.
The Birfer Donald:
Ann Telnaes: Afghan protests spread after Koran burning.
Cenk with Con Job: GOP budget exposed by CBO.
Newsy: Mississippi Republicans think mixed race marriages should be illegal.
White House: West Wing Week.
Rep. Jim McDermott on FAUX News discussing budget compromise:
Cenk: Why I am a progressive.
Liberal Viewer: Using R-word is totally gay?.
Lawrence O’Donnell: Last word on GOP/Teabagger holding Planned Parenthood hostage.
Wimpish Pawlenty puts out an action thriller against Obama. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr! (via TalkingPointsMemo).
Maddow: Paul Ryan & GOP attack Medicare & raise debt?
Young Turks: Walker does cronyism.
ONN week in review: Obama cast national musical.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Washington state capitol grounds are filled with thousands of protesters demonstrating against spending cuts and corporate tax breaks. Seattle teacher’s union vice president Jonathan Knapp estimates 8,000 demonstrators, and the the Washington State Patrol estimates 7,000 people:
The rally is the largest of four days of boisterous demonstrations in Olympia over spending cuts lawmakers are considering to help close a looming $5 billion budget deficit.
Goldy’s there and sends in this amusing photo (to his employer). Here is another photo, and another from Goldy.
Not there? You can still make your voice heard. Take a few moments to contact your state Senator and Representatives.
Seriously…with $4.4 billion more being excised from a budget that has been cut to the bone and picked over, this is going to be painful. So speak up!
I’ll take a slightly less suspicious stance than Lee on the remarkable turn-around we saw yesterday in the Wisconsin Supreme court race.
People make mistakes. All the time.
The whole idea of canvassing under the scrutiny of public observers is to figure out the intentions of every single voter, and make sure the votes are counted correctly. Shit happens…tallies change. Yesterday we learned that, because of a data entry error in a Republican-leaning county, Prosser was shorted some 7,582 votes in his contest with Kloppenburg.
Do I believe it? Yes, I do.
Seriously…I believe a whole string of innocent human errors are a far more parsimonious explanation than systematic voter fraud, lying, deceit, ballot stuffing, etc. for the plethora of vote changes that have occurred over the last two days Yeah…I believe that—even when the conservative nut-cases come out ahead—it is true until concrete evidence shows elsewise.
So…to paraphrase the words of an overrated person with senile dementia who was once was propped up as “President,” “I’ll trust, but please verify.”
And sure…the most likely outcome of this election isn’t nearly as satisfying as we thought two days ago, but it really doesn’t change what I said on Wednesday:
So, who really wins…Workers or Walker? Given the closeness of this race, it will be hard for either side to make too much over the eventual winner. That said, the expectation that a incumbent should win such a race means that a Kloppenburg win, and maybe even a very close loss, provides modest evidence that Wisconsin voters have joined with their Milwaukee county brethren to give Gov. Walker a collective thumbs down.
If one recognizes the fact that Prosser dominated with a 2:1 margin over Kloppenburg in the four-way primary, only to have that margin cut down to a slim advantage in the general election…yeah, I can find solace in that as the outcome.
All that aside, check this out:
The Brookfield bombshell was the biggest – but hardly the only – change as counties across the state checked their election results Tuesday. Here’s a sample:
- In Winnebago County, officials now say Prosser received 20,701 votes to Kloppenburg’s 18,887. On Wednesday, The Associated Press – which gathers the votes for most of the media in Wisconsin – had 19,991 for Prosser to Kloppenburg’s 18,421.
- In Kenosha, Prosser picked up 33 votes in the Town of Randall and 27 votes in the Town of Bristol, and the canvass is still going on.
- In Waukesha County, Prosser also picked up 200 votes in New Berlin after a clerical error was discovered.
- In Grant County, Prosser lost 116 votes when officials completed their canvass Thursday. The count was off in part because the Town of Smelser incorrectly reported the count for paper ballots that voters cast after the regular ballots ran out, County Clerk Linda Gebhardt said. The town reported 294 votes for Prosser, but later corrected the figure to 194.
The list of changes rolled on in county after county…
Let me ask you. If these discrepancies were reported to advantage the (perceived) Democrat, what do you s’pose would happen?
Yeah…the Wingnut spin machine would go absolutely, fucking, out-of-their-gourd bonkers! They would go on a witch hunt against anyone and everyone who made “hostile” corrections to the vote tallies. They would launch a holy crusade against Democratic stronghold counties, ACORN, Planned Parenthood, NPR, George Soros, Michael Fox, the Clintons and certain Teletubbies. We’d hear about roving bands of ballot-stuffers, mailbox dwellers, illegal alien voters, Black Panther intimidators, and Democrat-loving felons voters.
We’d hear references Dean Logan ad nauseum.
In other words, the apoplectic right-wing propagandists would do everything they could do to stir up negative emotions by undermining our system of elections. They would consider their victory so important that they would fabricate lies and hatred about our elections process. (You know…kind-of like Hitler would do.)
You ask how I can make such a claim—practically calling ’em traitors? Because that is what they did in 2004 in Washington state. And then, again, in 2008 in Minnesota. You know, like the 157 different “findings of fact” alleged by Coleman, of which, ohhh…all 157 were tossed out by the courts. The Coleman’s people (like Rossi’s) made the calculation that grasping for a win—even at the cost of damaging our democracy—was more important than truth and reality.
So I will maintain the dignified stance that this Wisconsin election is typical—clean, overall, but with a few errors along the way that can and will (rightfully) be corrected.
And the next time the Democrats squeak one out and some right-wing asshole starts trashing our Democracy and promoting doubts about our electoral system…I may have to shoot him in the fucking head.
Or her.
Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) has a little slip-o-the-tongue (via Thinkprogress):
And we all know what he means by “score a victory for the Republican people.”
Dear Rep. Pence,
“No” means NO!
Love,
America
Remember the anecdote about the college drop-out, DUI-collecting, son of a lobbyist and big donor who was appointed by Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) to head environmental and regulatory affairs in the state Department of Commerce for $81,500 a year?
He has been given a demotion in response to a “public uproar.”
But the Journal Sentinel gives the qualifications on the two other people who applied for the position that supervises 76 employees and oversees storage tank regulations and environmental cleanups:
The first, Oscar Herrera, is a former state cabinet secretary under Republican Gov. Scott McCallum with a doctoral degree and eight years’ experience overseeing the cleanup of petroleum-contaminated sites.
The second, Bernice Mattsson, is a professional engineer who served since 2003 in the post to which Deschane was appointed.
By contrast, Deschane has no college degree, little management experience and a couple of drunken-driving convictions. His father represents a trade group that gave more than $121,000 to Walker and his running mate.
Herrera and Mattsson didn’t get far in the process.
“Neither candidate was interviewed,” said agency spokesman Tony Hozeny.
Clearly, the last thing you need in such a position is someone with qualifications and experience.
And clearly, Walker considered that the single best qualification for the job was having a generous father who is a lobbyist for the Wisconsin Builders Association.
Nothing stinky here, folks. Just move along!
Okay…maybe there was some political payback, and maybe there was some conflict of interest in having the son of a Wisconsin Builders Association lobbyist overseeing regulators of storage tanks. But, whatever…I mean, demotion accomplished!
And by “demotion” we learn he will go…
…back to the Department of Regulation and Licensing and his $64,728-a-year job as bureau director of board services.
(*Sigh*)
In Wisconsin, two of yesterday’s races were being touted as a referendum on Gov. Scott Walker’s (R) rather extremist anti-worker, anti-middle class agenda. Now it is mostly all over but for the recounts.
The second most important race is for Gov. Walker’s former position as Milwaukee County executive, a post he held from 2002 to 2010. The Republican candidate state Rep. Jeff Stone (R-Greendale), who is portrayed in the liberal blogosphere as a Scott Walker clone. The opponent is philanthropist and political newcomer, Chris Abele (D).
The result? A +22% landslide for Abele:
Abele had 61% of the vote to 39% for Stone, according to unofficial results with all votes counted
The voters of Milwaukee county have spoken: “Walker clone sucks,” or maybe, “We don’t trust no Republicans no more,” or, perhaps, “We dislike Gov. Walker’s extremism and won’t elect his cronies.” It’s hard to adjudicate amongst these options without additional information.
The most important election is for state Supreme Court, where Justice David Prosser (the incumbent) is up against Assistant Attorney General JoAnne Kloppenburg. Kloppenburg is the liberal and Prosser is the semi-crazy conservative in this non-partisan race. Where’d I get the “semi-crazy” from? Well…let’s politely overlook the fact that Sarah Palin has endorsed him (perhaps against his will!). Let’s ask former Gov. Patrick Lucey (D) who, until early April, was the honorary co-chairman of Prosser’s campaign:
“I have followed with increasing dismay and now alarm the campaign of Justice David Prosser, whom I endorsed at the outset of his campaign and in whose campaign I serve as the honorary co-chairman,” Lucey said in the statement. “I can no longer in good conscience lend my name and support to Justice Prosser’s candidacy. Too much has come to light that Justice Prosser has lost that most crucial of characteristics for a Supreme Court Justice — as for any judge — even-handed impartiality. Along with that failing has come a disturbing distemper and lack of civility that does not bode well for the High Court in the face of demands that are sure to be placed on it in these times of great political and legal volatility.”
With no prior information we would might expect the incumbent to prevail.
The election is too close to call. The last numbers I could find have Prosser leading by 585 votes with 34 of 3,596 precincts left to report. As it happens most of the 34 precincts are from pro-Kloppenburg counties.
Starting with the table found here, I project (using ONLY the county-wide percentages and estimate of the number of votes remaining) that there will be 6,546 additional votes for Kloppenburg and 4,871 additional votes for Prosser. After we take into account Prosser’s 585 lead this evening, Kloppenburg should have a final lead of about 1,091 votes. The wrench in the calculations is that I have no idea how many absentee ballots and provisional ballots will be counted and how they will break.
The losing candidate will, no doubt, request a recount (which, under Wisconsin law is not automatic). My hunch is that the recount will favor Kloppenburg a bit (keep in mind what happened in Cantwell–Gorton, 2000; Gregoire–Rossi, 2004; Franken–Coleman, 2008). But watch out for those absentee ballots and provisional ballots…they add considerable uncertainty to any projections.
So, who really wins…Workers or Walker? Given the closeness of this race, it will be hard for either side to make too much over the eventual winner. That said, the expectation that a incumbent should win such a race means that a Kloppenburg win, and maybe even a very close loss, provides modest evidence that Wisconsin voters have joined with their Milwaukee county brethren to give Gov. Walker a collective thumbs down.
Update: With three precincts left to report, it looks like Kloppenburg will lead with about 260 votes. Wisconsin absentee voter law requires ballots to arrive by the 8 pm poll-closing time on election night. There is a limited postmark exception for some overseas military personnel, but the exception doesn’t apply to this election.
There should be a hand full of provisional ballots to count. This 2008 memo points out that provisional ballots must be “dealt with” by 4:00 pm today:
A provisional ballot is used when a person attempts to vote who is required to provide proof of residency but who does not have such proof with them. […]
The person is to be offered the opportunity to vote a provisional ballot and if they agree, are to be provided with envelope marked “ballot under s. 6.97 stats.” The person shall be required to sign written affirmation on envelope that they are qualified elector in that ward or district and is eligible to vote. The ballot shall be noted with “s. 6.97” and person’s name placed on separate list. The person then has until 4 pm the day after the election to provide identification in order for vote to be counted.
For the most part, individuals required to provide proof of residency are those who register to vote on election day. There won’t be many, and as a group they should be younger (new voters), more transient (new state residents), and angrier (formerly inactive) than the general population. I suspect the provisionals will add to Kloppenburg’s lead.
Update II: Now there is one outstanding precinct and Kloppenburg has a 224 vote lead. The remaining county, Jefferson, went for Prosser 58% to 42%. Hence, if the precinct follows the overall county proportions, and is an average sized precinct for the county, Kloppenburg’s lead should be about 139 votes!
Last night I told Goldy last night I wanted Kloppenburg to come out 129 votes ahead (remember 2004?)…I may well get my wish!
Update III: Hmmm…I’ve been using the AP for election results, and they still have one precinct to go in Jefferson county. So I go to the Jefferson county web site and find updated numbers. Assuming none of the other numbers have changed, Prosser gains 2 votes when that last precinct is tallied.
Update IV: The AP has finally gotten that last precinct nailed. Some other numbers have changed a bit, probably as provisional ballots are resolved before the 4:00 pm CDT deadline (2:00 pm PDT).
The current tally has Kloppenburg leading Prosser by 204 votes.
Canvassing must be complete and reported by April 15th. The recount request from Prosser will come a few days later.
Update V: Too funny! Via WisPolitics:
“You’ve got a world driven by Madison, and a world driven by everybody else out across the majority of the rest of the state of Wisconsin,” Walker said at a press conference in the Capitol.
[…]“For those who believe it’s a referendum, while it might have a statewide impact that we may lean one way or the other, it’s largely driven by Madison, and to a lesser extent Milwaukee,” the governor said.
Here is a beautiful map. Gosh…Madison has sure grown since I’ve lived there….it’s, like, one quarter of the state now! And who knew it had that “suburb” way up north along Lake Superior?
Of course, Walker was elected County Executive in Milwaukee county just a few years ago. And yesterday the county went 61% to 39% in favor of Democrat Chris Abele for the same position. And Milwaukee county went 57% to 43% in favor of Kloppenburg over incumbent Justice Prosser. (Ten years ago Prosser ran unopposed, so we cannot fairly compare the past results.)
It’s election night…in Wisconsin, where there are a couple of “bellwether” elections that are taken to be a referendum on Gov. Walker’s (R-WI) War on Workers™ (and overall teabaggy ways). Polls close at 7:00 pm here on the Left Coast. I guess there are local things to discuss, too, like…budget proposals out of Olympia.
So please join us tonight for an evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but feel free to join some of us earlier for election returns over dinner.
Not in Seattle? There is a good chance you live near one of the 221 other chapters of Drinking Liberally.
Let’s begin with an example from Wisconsin, where Teabagger Scott Walker is the Gubernator. Via the Journal Sentinel’s political watchdog columnist, Daniel Bice:
Just in his mid-20s, Brian Deschane has no college degree, very little management experience and two drunken-driving convictions.
Yet he has landed an $81,500-per-year job in Gov. Scott Walker’s administration overseeing environmental and regulatory matters and dozens of employees at the Department of Commerce. Even though Walker says the state is broke and public employees are overpaid, Deschane already has earned a promotion and a 26% pay raise in just two months with the state.
How does a college drop-out with a couple of DUIs and no environmental or management experience pull off a sweet deal like that?
Obviously, it’s because his father put in a good word for him:
“I put in good words for every one of my children in their jobs,” said the elder Deschane. “But that would be the extent of it.”
That and a lot of money.
Brian’s father is a lobbyist for Wisconsin Builders Association (WBA). (The WBA is roughly equivalent of our Building Industry Association of Washington.) The WBA’s PAC was one of the top five contributers to Gov. Walker’s campaign. Contributions from the WBA and its members totaled $121,652.
I’m sure it is totally a coincidence that Scott Walker’s campaign manager (and currently Walker’s chief of staff) personally recommended young Brian Deschane for the job.
And about that promotion cum raise (my emphasis):
…Secretary David Ross, a Walker cabinet member, named [Brian] Deschane the bureau director of board services, a job that paid $64,728 a year.
Not long after, lawmakers approved the governor’s plan to convert the Department of Commerce to a public-private hybrid in charge of attracting and retaining businesses, with its regulatory and environmental functions being moved to other agencies.
Commerce Secretary Paul Jadin then appointed Deschane to his new post there to oversee the changes.
“It was felt that he would be helpful in working through the transition issues,” said Commerce Department spokesman Tony Hozeny.
The move meant a pay raise of more than $16,500 a year for Deschane, even though he had put in only a couple of months with the state.
Ahhh, yes. Here we have all of the elements of Today’s Republicans at their “best”.
First, one needs an emergency. The projected budget shortfall made a great excuse for Walker and his cronies.
First course of action: Give tax breaks to businesses to the tune of $117 million. At the same time, eliminate $16 million in tax credits for the poorest of workers.
Follow this up by slashing services for the poor, disabled, and elderly.
Next, attack labor. Say…strip workers of their collective bargaining rights, even after state unionized employees were willing to make concessions.
And, for good measure, pass the bill through using either illegal or, at best, highly questionable, legislative manurers manuvers.
Next, fill political appointment positions with utterly unqualified cronies (and college-drop-out, DUI racking, unqualified children of cronies).
Add to this, privatization of some government services (like converting the Department of Commerce to a public-private hybrid) to “save money.” And then “save money” by giving crony appointees big fat raises.
The whole scam is a recipe for a sort of public-private hybrid campaign financing: (1) Patron donates, (2) Governor hires patron, (3) Patron gets big fat raise, and back to step 1.
The only thing refreshing about all this is how these Republicans have given up all pretenses.
Now, they openly flaunt being crooks.
Young Turks: Florida Republican Governor Rick Scott to drug test all public employees and welfare recipients.
Ann Telnaes: G.O.P. outlook for the 2012 presidential race.
Lawrence O’Donnell: Eric Cantor tries to rewrite the Constitution.
Newsy: Ohio Dems vow to fight anti-worker bill.
Young Turks on The Donald.
Mark Fiore: April message.
Thom with The Good, The Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Tina Dupey with Andy Kroll: Recall effort in Wisconsin.
Maddow: Vermont’s “Medicare for All” single payer plan.
Young Turks: AK judicial panel nominee thinks premarital sex should be outlawed.
Congressional Correspondent’s Dinner:
Newsy: Arizona law bans abortions based on sex and race.
Tina Dupey: Sarah Palin, obviously channeling Shakespeare, makes up another word.
Maddow: Why are Republicans afraid of Rachael Maddow?
Cenk: Wacky Republicans on Obama private army & jobs flip-flop.
Rep. Gohmer’s (R-TX) odd conspiracy theory: Libya action will deplete military to allow Obama to call up that private army authorized in health care bill (via Crooks and Liars).
Newsy: Battle budget.
Bill Maher’s dumbed down citizenship test:
Cenk: Leaked tape shows FAUX News executive lied about Obama & socialism.
Ann Telnaes: South Dakota passes 72 hour waiting period law.
Ed and Pap: The alternative reality of the Koch Brothers.
Maddow: Republicans attempt to change child labor laws in Maine.
Jon: I give up (via OneGoodMove).
ONN: Damaged women stage drunken 2 am march on Washington.
Thom: Is Fukushima already worse than Chemobyl?
Libya:
Ed and Pap: GOP passing laws to keep liberals from voting.
Gov. Gregoire (D-WA) on radiation from Japan.
Red State Update: The end of times:
ONN: American dream declared dead as final believer gives up.
Young Turks: Gov. Walker (R-WI) wants federal money.
Pap: Koch Brothers—The more we know you, the less we like you.
FAUX News executive confesses to lying on the air about Obama (via Media Matters).
Cenk: Glenn Beck claims Obama is helping terrorists in Libya.
Thom: The Good, The Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Young Turks: Sarah Palin is a national embarassment on FAUX News.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Salon’s “Ask the Pilot” columnist Patrick Smith writes:
Which brings us to [Hong Kong Airport’s] most impressive and appealing feature: its rail connection to the city. The sleek, high-speed Airport Express train is literally only steps from the arrival and departure halls. Within a half-hour of landing you can be alighting at Kowloon or Hong Kong Island — without ever having stepped outside. Returning to the airport, you can check your bags and get your seat assignment right there at the downtown station.
Kuala Lumpur, Tokyo-Narita and Shanghai are among other spots in Asia with similar railway links. And this is where it gets depressing. Why can’t American airports have public transport like this?
Amen.
I left on Alaska Air flight 2 for Reagan National on Wednesday, escaping a rainy, 40 degree Seattle to arrive at a rainy 40 degree evening in Washington, D.C.
(Aside: Our Boeing 737 did a go-around on final approach. My initial thought was that the controller fell asleep before issuing our landing clearance. Alas another plane was taking too long to exit the runway, so the controller, very much awake, thank you, instructed the pilot to go around).
I fly to D.C. once or twice a year, and I always fly into Reagan. I suppose you could say that I love Reagan. I love being able to hop on the Metro and quickly be within a short walk of any destination I need to be at.
A metro-like rail connection should be a feature of every large American airport. In Seattle, the light rail between the Airport and downtown is a fair start. But wouldn’t it be great to have rail infrastructure as well developed in Seattle as in D.C.?
If only we could be as Socialist as D.C….
From first talk of recalling eight Republican Senators in Wisconsin, I figured a couple of signature gathering efforts might succeed. And today, one has:
La Crosse area Democrats say they will file petitions today with enough signatures to trigger a recall election of Sen. Dan Kapanke, one of eight Senate Republicans targeted over votes to curtail collective bargaining rights for public workers.
Just shows what you can do with an outraged public, plenty of time and boatloads of money:
The filing comes just before the halfway point in the 60-day window the recall committee had to gather signatures in the district.
The state Democratic Party provided infrastructure support but “not a single paid canvasser was needed to trigger the recall versus Dan Kapanke,” said party spokesman Graeme Zielinski, who credited volunteers for collecting more than 20,000 signatures in less than 30 days.
“It took on a life of its own,” said Scheller, who filed the original paperwork to launch the recall effort.
Okay…so scratch the plenty of time and boatloads of money.
This is about a public outraged over extremists going too far in stripping rights away from public employees.
Given how quickly the drive has succeeded on a low budget, it seems all eight Republican Senators better get busy on their stump speeches….
(I recommend the Santorumesque campaign theme: “How collective bargaining leads to a culture of fetal cannibalism.”)
Republicans are having a hard time getting the nerve up to challenge President Obama:
“Right now, just three Republicans (Cain, Pawlenty, and Roemer) have formed exploratory committees, and no one has yet to formally announce a presidential bid. By comparison, at this point in the 2008 cycle, at least 17 Democratic and Republican presidential candidates had already formed their exploratory committees or had officially declared they were running for president…
Bloody wafflers!
Okay, so maybe the problem isn’t spineless waffling. Perhaps they are suffering an epidemic of reality, with advisors pointing out the hurdles: huge fundraising requirements, tough odds against Obama, and a very red G.O.P. primary (as in, a bloodbath). The entire picture might be overwhelming.
Whatever the cause, the lack of action is starting to mess things up. The first Republican primary debate for the 2012 presidential election cycle was supposed to be held on May 2. It isn’t going to happen and is being moved to mid-September.
My sense is that the compressed schedule will not work in the Republican’s favor. First, it will provide an expanded platform for the political nutjobs to launch quixotic campaigns. We have a growing list of crazies hinting at a run—including Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachmann, Rand Paul…. And most recently, The Donald, has been working diligently to establish credentials as a bona fide birfer loon. The lack of a serious mainstream candidate can only embolden these people.
This cycle we will see the nutjobs soaking up a lot of press attention, later into the season, leaving a deficit of press attention for more mainstream candidates.
Another possible negative consequence is that whoever is eventually selected may not be fully vetted. Vetting takes time, and must encompass multiple dimensions—fundraising prowess, mistresses on the side, past indiscretions, pregnant unwed teenage daughters, gaffe proneness, lack of charisma, bouts of irrational decision making, lack of any coherent vision, etc.
In other words, the late start of the election season maximizes the opportunity for Republicans to end up with a flawed candidate. They did pretty well in that regard in 2008, even with a long, bruising election season. The first sign of McCain’s “gambling problem” became evident when he gave the G.O.P. establishment, including his former rivals, a great big “fuck you” and took a desperate gamble on an entirely un-vetted running-mate. The results weren’t pretty.
Man, what great material us bloggers got from it.
But more than I want good blogging material, I really do want a large field of serious, solid candidates from both sides, and plenty of time to evaluate them. I want this because, in principle, that is what is best for America.
In practice…I am not convinced that there is any Republican politician who is actually good for America.
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