Darryl

The event was held in a public venue, advertised openly, and had a speaker who represents the state as an elected official and is also a high-profile public candidate.

Zach Wurtz, a videographer for the Washington State Democrats, who, I suspect, has been hired to record all of McKenna’s public appearances, showed up to record McKenna.

McKenna stopped and asked the man who he was with. The man gave his name, Zach Wurtz, and said he was with the Washington State Democrats. The Young Republicans club president, Jennifer Fetters, asked him to leave. Nope. McKenna told Wurtz to turn off the camera. Wurtz refused. McKenna’s voice got sharper, “Turn it off. Now!”

After further intimidation didn’t succeed in shutting down Wurtz’s camera, the cops were called. They took a long time to get there.

In the mean time…

McKenna stepped outside by the cupcake table.

Really?!? He escaped the scary video man by seeking safe harbor at the “cupcake table”? That’s simply precious!

One big advantage that McKenna has over Dino Rossi is that he’s far more adorable! I mean, you have to admit, retreating like a frightened boy to the cupcake table is a lot more endearing than, say, putting your goons to work on the videographer. So good call on the cupcake table, Rob.

McKenna apparently realized that he could not prevent the recording of political activity in a public place, because he never gave his speech.

Question: Why the hell couldn’t McKenna give his talk in the presence of “the enemy.” What’s he hiding? Was McKenna prepared to tell the Young Republicans things that he could never say to the general public?

Is McKenna, say, talking like Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker behind closed doors, and then goes all smiles and cupcakes before the general public?

And what is this bullshit about not being video tapped? It’s now routine for campaigns to shadow each other. McKenna and Inslee should expect that all of their appearances will be recorded, scrutinized and, if something controversial is said, publicized.

Deal with it, Rob! You won’t always have a cupcake table to fall back on.

The Publicola story points out that Wurtz was forcibly removed from McKenna’s announcement press conference. Goldy was denied admission as well in his role as a reporter for The Stranger.

Knock it the fuck off! The “friendly room” strategy didn’t work for Rossi, and it isn’t likely to work for McKenna, either.

The not-so-bad and the not-so-good news for McKenna

by Darryl — Thursday, 7/7/11, 1:22 pm

An Elway poll taken last week and released today has some not-so-bad and some not-so-good news for Rob McKenna (via Publicola).

But first the not-so-bad news for McKenna. The poll didn’t really do a typical head-to-head between Jay Inslee and McKenna. Rather, they took a smorgasbord approach (rotating the order of answers, of course):

Several candidates may run for Governor next year. As things stand today, whom would you support if the candidates were:

Republican Rob McKenna

Republican Bill Bryant

Republican Clint Didier

Democrat Dow Constantine

Democrat Lisa Brown

Democrat Aaron Reardon

Democrat Jay Inslee

Democrat Brian Sonntag

The not-so-bad part for McKenna is that he took 20% to Inslee’s 17%. But with five Dems to three G.O.P. names on the list, and about half the respondents offering no opinion, the question does little beyond assessing the potential viability of any candidates besides Inslee and McKenna.

(The answer: none shows any potential. Still, Mr. Didier, don’t let numbers and reality stand between you and the Governor’s mansion!)

The not-so-good news for McKenna came from another question:

Asked which type of candidate they were most likely
to support, 48% said a Democrat and 36% said a
Republican. More specifically:

22% said a “liberal Democrat”

26% said a “moderate Democrat”

16% said a “moderate Republican” and

20% said a “conservative Republican.

McKenna has spent years cultivating his image as a moderate Republican. He has shown remarkable discipline doing so.

But it was a single decision to “go rogue” in joining a lawsuit against the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act—action he took against the wishes of the Governor and the legislature—that will prevent him from gaining the support of independents and moderate Democrats.

So, the not-so-good news is less good than the not-so-bad new, which isn’t really so good anyway.

Crystal ball 2012

by Darryl — Wednesday, 7/6/11, 10:01 am

The Seattle Weekly gets UW political science Prof. Matt Barreto’s take on the 2012 election. (Prof. Barreto is frequently heard on KUOW discussing elections and election results, and he is the director of the Washington Poll.)

Here’s his take on what will happen in Washington state:

“I think in the presidential election Obama will win handily, Cantwell could end up winning by 15 points, and the governor’s race will come down to the wire.”

“In 2008 Gregoire had a pretty sizable win thanks to the huge pro-Obama vote. Obama is likely to be elected by a big margin, but he’s unlikely to have that kind of enthusiasm. And if there’s not a big enthusiasm vote for Obama, McKenna could eek out a win.”

The Inslee—McKenna race will be one of the hottest contests in the country, and the Obama campaign knows it. So don’t be surprised if Obama makes several high-profile visits to Washington state during election season.

Sure…we’re always something of an ATM machine for Democratic candidates. But most importantly, visits by Obama will help generate the enthusiasm needed to put Inslee in the Governor’s mansion.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/5/11, 4:33 pm

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but feel free to join some of us for an earlier dinner.

Can’t make it tonight? Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets on Thursday, July 7th 7:00pm at the Hub Restaurant.

Special Event:

The NWroots Conference will be held this Saturday, July 9th at the Comedy Underground in Seattle’s Pioneer Square. Speakers include attorney, Rhodes Scholar, and community leader Cyrus Habib, undocumented immigrant/UW graduate Alonso Chehade, Congressional candidates Jay Clough and Roger Goodman, Washington State Labor Council President Jeff Johnson, Congressmen Jim McDermott, Jay Inslee, and Dennis Kucinich, and former Canadian Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh.

Musical performances by Irthlingz and the Total Experience Gospel Choir round out the event.

The conference is $50 ($25 students), includes breakfast at Swannies & lunch at Fx McRory’s. Registration/breakfast begins at 7:30am. The conference is from 8:30am to 5:30pm.

You can find more information about the conference and register to attend here.

Sonntag stays put

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/5/11, 9:32 am

State Auditor Brian Sonntag has been contemplating a run for Governor, a move that would have left open another statewide office. Apparently, his 4th of July weekend self-performance audit convinced him otherwise. It appears he will run for a 6th term as State Auditor, instead.

Sonntag would have little chance of winning against Rob McKenna (R) and Jay Inslee (D). Sandeep Kaushik gives three reasons why a person who has been elected to statewide office five times wouldn’t successfully pull off a gubernatorial bid: The top two primary, money, and giving up a safe seat. The latter appears to have kept him from the race altogether.

Sonntag is nominally a Democrat, with a track record that includes things like endorsing Republican King County Executive candidate Susan Hutchison, ~~snuggling~~ ~~spooning~~ blowing Tim Eyman, and participating in Teabagger events.

We can only hope that the buzz about a potential Sonntag gubernatorial bid has encouraged some talented people to think about running for the open Auditor seat. And with any luck, they’ll still run, but now against Sonntag. Otherwise, I’m afraid, Sonntag will maintain his grip on the State Auditor’s office…well, until it’s pried out of his cold, dead hands.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 7/1/11, 11:50 pm

Ann Telnaes: Sen. McConnell on raising taxes.

Thom: Will Ronald McDonald be added to Mt. Rushmore?

Maddow calls out Romney’s lie.

Glenn Beck Finally Goes the Fuck Away:

A requiem for a Rodeo Clown (via Media Matters).
Beck’s final show in ninety seconds (via TalkingPointsMemo).
Newsy: Glenn Beck is gone, but no deed to “dispair”.
O’Donnell: The end of a 2.5 year mistake
Cenk: Glenn goes away

Goldman Sachs CEO outsources his way to Worst Person in the World.

Cenk: FAUX News’ Nixon roots.

Maddow: Koch Bros killing unions.

Thom and Jim Hightower: Gov Rick Perry is the Koch brother’s new poster boy?.

Palin Around with Crazy:

Newsy: Teh Undefeated.
Sarah and Bristol’s pathetic draw at Mall of America

Olbermann defines FOX Populi.

President Obama welcomes the Seattle Storm:

Thom: Proof that Rich people aren’t the job creators!

Some Flake Announces:

Newsy: Bachmann makes it official.
Young Turks: Is Michele Bachmann ripping off Sarah Palin?
Lawrence O’Donnell: Bachmann’s ding-bat economic plan.
Olbermann: Why Bachmann is a flake.
Young Turks: Michele Bachmann’s founding fathers BS.
Lawrence O’Donnell: Bachmann tries to rewrite the history of slavery.
Newsy: Will Bachmann’s gaffes hurt her
Cenk: Bachmann’s misuse of government funds.
Stephen: American heroes Michele Bachmann and John Wayne (Gacy).
Young Turks: Is Michele Bachmann’s pro-life story believable?
Sam Seder: Tom Petty slaps Michele Bachmann with cease and desist.
Young Turks: Michele Bachmann’s conservative christian husband.

Thom performs an an Exorcism on the GOP.

Seattle cop leaves assault weapon on top of car.

Head of TSA is Worst Person in the World.

Maddow: Arguments over the years against the ERA.

More Jon and FAUX:

Jon eviscerates Jon.
Liberal Viewer: Jon Stewart, FOX News argue if 2 wrongs make a right?

Stephen: Ted Nugent is hopping mad that youth aren’t joining the teaparty.

WTF: Has Mitt Romney ever heard of Teh Google?!?:

Jon on the the GOP candidate doppelgangers.

Tweety: Most Americans still blame Bush for economic hard times.

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Olbermann: Kansas judge delays new abortion law from taking effect .

Cenk: TX Sen. John Cornyn’s batant anti-Obama hypocrisy.

Jon: Debt ceiling debate and the future American dystopia.

Teh Gay Marriage:

Olbermann with The Stranger’s Dan Savage on what’s next for same-sex marriage.
Ann Telnaes: Obama’s evolving views on gay marriage.
Some natural love:
Jon on gay people getting married
Some U.S. Senators: It gets better.
Obama celebrates LBGT month.
Young Turks: Pat Robertson invokes “angel rape”.

Sam Seder: Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) dealing with two disasters.

Mark Halperin calls Obama “a dick” on national TV.

Olbermann defines fibber-tarian.

Thom with another episode of The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Mark Fiore: A child’s Supreme right to violence.

Thom with Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) on the constitutionality of the debt ceiling.

Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) Runs for Governor:

Jay Inslee announces.
Rep. Jay Inslee on marijuana.
Rep. Jay Inslee on marriage equality.
Latest gubernatorial candidate is a former Yakima politician
Rep. Inslee makes a stop in Spokane.

Maddow: Republican war on women in Kansas escalates.

Their Back! The Republican Plan.

Thom: More Republican war on Democracy—the Minnesota shutdown.

Olbermann: Are Republicans trying to sabotage the U.S. economy?

White House: West Wing Week.

ONN: Coal lobby warns that wind farms my blow earth out of orbit.

Maddow: Ohioans unite against Republican Gov. John Kasich’s union-busting bill.

Mr. Colbert’s Excellent FEC Adventure:

Stephen explains his SuperPAC.
Mr. Colbert may form his PAC.
Colbert: “I am a SuperPAC.
Stephen reflects on his new SuperPAC (via TalkingPointsMemo).
Newsy: Colbert’s SuperPAC gets FEC approval.

Pap: deniers watching the world burn.

WI Justice Prosser has a hissy-fit with reporter (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Thom: The Supreme court ruling on Campaign Finance.

Young Turks: Herman Cain claims Obama isn’t a “real” black man.

Newsy: Minnesota shuts down.

Sam Seder: Spreading Santorum on Egypt.

Stephen: Should the US get sucked into the quagmire that is the US?

Thom with more Good, Bad and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

FOX is not a crook!

by Darryl — Thursday, 6/30/11, 2:17 pm

Today is the day Glenn Beck leaves FOX News (at least that’s what they say…I don’t have cable or a functioning teevee in my home). So it seems only fitting then that today Gawker examines the origins of FOX News:

Republican media strategist Roger Ailes launched Fox News Channel in 1996, ostensibly as a “fair and balanced” counterpoint to what he regarded as the liberal establishment media. But according to a remarkable document buried deep within the Richard Nixon Presidential Library, the intellectual forerunner for Fox News was a nakedly partisan 1970 plot by Ailes and other Nixon aides to circumvent the “prejudices of network news” and deliver “pro-administration” stories to heartland television viewers.

The memo—called, simply enough, “A Plan For Putting the GOP on TV News”— is included in a 318-page cache of documents detailing Ailes’ work for both the Nixon and George H.W. Bush administrations that we obtained from the Nixon and Bush presidential libraries.

I guess we shouldn’t be surprised that the seeds of FOX News were sewn in the Nixon White House.

It explains a lot!

Circuit Court upholds constitutionality of Affordable Health Care for America Act

by Darryl — Wednesday, 6/29/11, 12:44 pm

Today the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the constitutionality of the Affordable Healthcare Act.

The court ruled on two of the most important substantive issues that have been raised in dozens of other lawsuits. The first is whether the law falls within the interstate commerce clause of the Constitution:

…the breadth of the substantial effects doctrine and the nature of modern health care favor the validity of this law. No matter how you slice the relevant market—as obtaining health care, as paying for health care, as insuring for health care—all of these activities affect interstate commerce, in a substantial way.

The second question is the constitutionality of the insurance mandate:

Does the Commerce Clause contain an action/inaction dichotomy that limits congressional power? No—for several reasons. First, the relevant text of the Constitution does not contain such a limitation. To the extent “regulate,” “commerce,” “necessary” and “proper” might be words of confinement, the Court has not treated them that way, as long as the objects of federal legislation are economic and substantially affect commerce.

And look who wrote the opinion:

Judge Jeffrey Sutton is a George W. Bush appointee and a former law clerk to conservative Justice Antonin Scalia. He served as an officer in the conservative Federalist Society’s Federalism and Separation of Powers practice group, and was one of the nation’s leading crusaders for expanding the role of the states at the federal government’s expense.

This ruling is significant as it is the first of four pending decisions from Circuit Courts of Appeals on Obamacare. This case originated in the E. Michigan District court as Thomas More Law Center v. Obama in which Judge George Caram Steeh dismissed the lawsuit on the merits. The 6th Circuit Court has now upheld that decision.

There are so many pending lawsuits against the Affordable Healthcare Act that it is difficult to get the big picture. I spent part of this morning trying to get my head wrapped around them. Here is what I came away with.

Besides today’s ruling, there are four other lawsuits at the Circuit Court level.

One of the pending decisions is Florida v. HHS that includes 26 state Attorneys General, including our own Rob McKenna. The law was found to be unconstitutional by Florida District Court Judge Roger Vinson. The ruling was appealed to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, and arguments were heard earlier this month.

Additionally, there are two cases pending in the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals: Virginia v. Sebelius and Liberty University v. Geithner. The former began in the E. Virginia District Court where Judge Henry E. Hudson ruled the law unconstitutional. The latter began in W. Virginia District Court where Judge Norman K. Moon ruled the law constitutional.

The only other ruling on the merits from a District Court comes from Seven-Sky v. Holder heard in the D.C. District court. Judge Gladys Kessler found the law constitutional. The appeal before the D.C. Court of Appeals awaits oral arguments that will take place no earlier than August.

Those are, so far, the only cases where a decision has been made on the merits. The score so far:

District Courts: constitutional 3; unconstitutional 2
Circuit Courts: constitutional 1; unconstitutional 0

There are several other cases before Courts of Appeals, New Jersey Physicians v. President just argued in the 3rd, Baldwin v. Sebelius in the 9th that will be argued in July, and Kinder v. Geithner in the 8th that will be heard no earlier than August. My understanding is that these cases were dismissed for lack of standing (not merit), so that a ruling in favor of the the plaintiff would simply send the case back to the District court for a ruling on the merits.

There are six or seven other cases at the District Court level at various stages of litigation. It seems like many of these will be dismissed for lack of standing, but rulings on the merits may well arise from some of them.

Today’s decision is a Big Fucking Deal in that a Judge with a very conservative record authored the majority opinion against the two main “theories” found in many of the other lawsuits. The decision will be binding on one of the current District Court cases, and will likely be be used as an advisory precedent in other cases.

Finally, here in Washington, this decision must be considered something of a blow to gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna (R), who went against the wishes of the Governor and a majority of the people (e.g. the March 2010 Washington Poll) by participating in the AG lawsuit (Florida v. HHS). Indeed, a recent SurveyUSA poll found that 40% of those polled were less likely to support McKenna compared to 36% more likely to support McKenna because of the lawsuit. A loss will make McKenna’s participation look like a quixotic waste of time and resources.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 6/28/11, 4:45 pm

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally meets tonight. There is much to talk about: Jay Inslee is in for Governor, and is leading McKenna in a new poll. Roger Goodman will run for Inslee’s 1st congressional district seat. Secretary of State Sam Reed is out, leaving three open statewide contests for 2012. Oh…and Seattle police leave an assault rifle unattended on a patrol car!

Please join us tonight for drinks, conversation, dinner, and assault weapons tips at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but a few folks show up around 7:00 pm for dinner.

Actual Google News screencapture:

Can’t make it tonight? There will be a special fireworks edition of Drinking Liberally, Newport Hills on the 4th of July. The fun begins at the Mustard Seed, 7:00 PM. Then, at about 8:30 or 9:00, they’ll make a short trip over to Newcastle’s Lake Boren park for the fireworks.

Finally…Have you registered for NWroots on July 9th? First Congressional District candidate Roger Goodman will open up the conference, announce his candidacy, talk a bit about the disastrous war on drugs, then introduce the current 1st District Congressman and gubernatorial candidate, Jay Inslee. Other featured speakers are 4th Congressional Candidate Jay Clough, attorney Cyrus Habib, “dreamer” Also Chehade, Washington State Labor Council President Jeff Johnson, Congressmen Jim McDermott and Dennis Kucinich, and, a special guest from Canada, former Canadian Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh, who will address single payer health care. There will be sessions and panels on the media, health care, immigration, labor, agricultural policy, the mortgage crisis, electronic voting issues, and an excellent 25 minute documentary on Afghanistan. There will be a candidates social, a special musical performance by the Total Experience Gospel Choir, and an after-party at Seattle’s oldest saloon. Find more information and register here.

Poll analysis in the Inslee—McKenna race

by Darryl — Tuesday, 6/28/11, 10:46 am

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know, it is really early. And yeah, the polls don’t mean much now. Blah, blah, blah.

Ya know, the score in a basketball game doesn’t mean much after the first 5 minutes either, and yet there is that score in the corner of the screen. So if you don’t want to see the score, go away…now.

What’s the score, you ask, in the gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) and Attorney General McKenna (R-WA) race? Five minutes into the game, Inslee is up slightly. The score is based on a SurveyUSA poll of 515 registered Washington voters taken from 24 Jun to 26 Jun.

Out of the 515, Inslee got 242 “votes” (47%) and McKenna got 227 (44%) “votes”. If we look only at those who picked Inslee or McKenna, Inslee has a 51.6% to 48.4% advantage.

As I’ve done for years, the polling results are analyzed by Monte Carlo simulations of 1,000,000 elections of 515 voters who each have a 47% chance of voting for Inslee and a 44% chance of voting for McKenna. The point is to get an estimate of the probability that each candidate would win the election, if the election was held today.

The final tally gives Inslee 687,927 wins to McKenna’s 300,837 wins. This suggests that, in an election held now, Inslee would have a 69.6% chance to McKenna’s 30.4% chance of winning, simply based on the evidence from this one poll. Here’s the picture of all outcomes from the simulated elections:

This is the second poll from Survey USA in this race. The early May poll had McKenna leading Inslee by +7 (48% to 41%) before either had declared their candidacy. If the election had been held back then, McKenna would have won with a 90% probability. Some difference a month and a half makes!

Another state-wide open seat

by Darryl — Tuesday, 6/28/11, 9:58 am

Via KING5:

Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed is announcing this morning that he will not seek re-election when his term ends in 2012.

That makes three open statewide races (Governor, SOS, and AG) in a year for which turn-out will be high on account of the the presidential race. Conventional wisdom would give a boost to the Democratic candidates because of the higher turnout.

Will conventional wisdom hold for 2012? Or will a “throw the bums (i.e. Democrats) out” mentality shake things up in favor of Republicans? Unlikely. First off, the SOS and AG positions are currently held by Republicans. For the gubernatorial race Chris Grygiel argues that Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) doesn’t look like the insider:

Voters nationally – and to a certain extent locally – have expressed a strong “throw the bums out” mentality. They seem to be willing to give newcomers a chance. So how can Inslee, a longtime incumbent, beat the “bum” rap? He’ll be new to voters outside of the two Congressional Districts where he’s held office. Again, conventional wisdom says McKenna has the edge because he’s won statewide office twice – Inslee never has. But another way of looking at that is voters haven’t had a chance to get sick of Inslee yet.

And, of course, McKenna is an Olympia insider….

Finally, State Senator Jim Kastama (D-Puyallup) has announced on his blog that he is running for SOS:

Today, Kastama confirmed he would seek the office of Washington State Secretary of State. Kastama will make a formal public announcement at the Puyallup City Hall 25th district legislative reception on July 5th at 6:00 pm.

Fun stuff!

Jay Inslee is in

by Darryl — Monday, 6/27/11, 1:32 pm

We’ve known this day would come for years. Congressman Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) is now running for governor.

As a constituent of Rep. Inslee, I am pleased by the announcement. Jay is progressive. He has a strong record on the environment. He sees an important role of technological leadership in the economy of the future. Basically, he is strong on many of the issues that are important to me.

And he is one of the few politicians around who can beat Rob McKenna. That’s particularly to me, as I have watched this state embark upon a journey toward Alabamization—a journey that would be furthered with a Gov. McKenna. Don’t believe me? Look at what is happening in every state with a newly elected Republican Governor….

I am not claiming that Inslee will win, just that he can. It’s going to be a battle.

In 2004, Dino Rossi almost won the Governor’s mansion because the voters never really got to know him. Rossi was a known quantity by 2008, and the voters rejected him (and one more time after that).

In 2012 the problem will be that people think they know McKenna. McKenna has skillfully spun himself as a moderate while capitalizing on his AG position to pass himself off as a populist. But there is evidence to suggest McKenna is far more conservative than people’s perception of him. The one slip-up in this regard was McKenna’s surprising decision to join the lawsuit against the Affordable Health Care Act. What other surprises does Rob McKenna have for us?

Inslee, with his rich legislative record, is a known quantity, but not well known by Washingtonians. I suspect that the more people get to know Inslee, the better they will like him. For McKenna, the more people get to know him…the less they will like him. So let the learning begin!