by Darryl, 06/28/2011, 10:46 AM

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know, it is really early. And yeah, the polls don’t mean much now. Blah, blah, blah.

Ya know, the score in a basketball game doesn’t mean much after the first 5 minutes either, and yet there is that score in the corner of the screen. So if you don’t want to see the score, go away…now.

What’s the score, you ask, in the gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) and Attorney General McKenna (R-WA) race? Five minutes into the game, Inslee is up slightly. The score is based on a SurveyUSA poll of 515 registered Washington voters taken from 24 Jun to 26 Jun.

Out of the 515, Inslee got 242 “votes” (47%) and McKenna got 227 (44%) “votes”. If we look only at those who picked Inslee or McKenna, Inslee has a 51.6% to 48.4% advantage.

As I’ve done for years, the polling results are analyzed by Monte Carlo simulations of 1,000,000 elections of 515 voters who each have a 47% chance of voting for Inslee and a 44% chance of voting for McKenna. The point is to get an estimate of the probability that each candidate would win the election, if the election was held today.

The final tally gives Inslee 687,927 wins to McKenna’s 300,837 wins. This suggests that, in an election held now, Inslee would have a 69.6% chance to McKenna’s 30.4% chance of winning, simply based on the evidence from this one poll. Here’s the picture of all outcomes from the simulated elections:

SUSA28June2011

This is the second poll from Survey USA in this race. The early May poll had McKenna leading Inslee by +7 (48% to 41%) before either had declared their candidacy. If the election had been held back then, McKenna would have won with a 90% probability. Some difference a month and a half makes!

20 Responses to “Poll analysis in the Inslee—McKenna race”

1. Roger Rabbit spews:

Last month will be remembered as McKenna’s high-water mark. This is just the beginning. His support will fall off as more voters realize just how radical he is. In the end, he’ll get the 40% of the Washington vote that comprises the hard-core Republican base and a smattering of votes from lesser-informed independents, and will do about the same as most Republicans in Washington’s statewide races — roughly 42% to 44% of the final tally (the only one that counts).

2. rhp6033 spews:

They key will be to push McKenna on the budget issues. Don’t let him get away with all those non-answers like “ferreting out waste and abuse”, and “letting the taxpayers keep their own money”, or “restraining out-of-control government spending. Make him identify exactly how he plans to balance the budget next time around, and exactly what programs he’s planning to cut.

By the way, more evidence that we’ve cut the state budget so far that the cuts are actually causing us to lose more money, even in the short run, than the amounts saved:

1) Six Washington State Dept. of Transportation employees turned down a bonus of $10,000 each they earned because they identified how to save $6 million dollars every three years in the purchase of salt for roads. They said it was just “part of their job”. But the program which would award such bonuses ends this year, as part of the budget cuts. (a) I wonder what Dori Monson’s take will be on that, in that he regularly condemns all state employees as “arrogant”, lazy and overpaid? (b) Any guess how many corporate executives would turn down a bonus, saying it was just “part of their jobs”? (c) Although such altruism on the part of the employees is to be commended, the bonuses were there for a reason – to encourage employees to spend the extra effort to find cost-savings measures. The elimination of this program in order to save money will actually cost more money.

Washington state workers decline prize

(2) Washington State is now the only state in the Union not to have a Tourism Office of one sort or another. This has become national news. As quoted from the wire services in my hometown paper (Chattanooga, Tennessee):

“What Washington has done puts that state on an island,” said Geoff Freeman, executive vice president of the travel association. “No state at this point in time has been, with all due respect to Washington, as short-sighted as those leaders have been.”

Recession forces states to rethink tourism funding

3. Michael spews:

I’m, actually, pleasantly surprised that Inslee’s out in front. But yeah, doesn’t mean much at this point.

4. Michael spews:

On the one hand, with Inslee as governor the clean energy initiative is safe from meddling. On the other hand, with McKenna I’m sure he’d love to team up with the Democrats that Avista, Simpson and Weyerhaeuser have bought off to gut the thing, clearing the way for us to pass clean energy initiative #2.

I’ve decided to find ways to make the glass half-full and filling regardless of who the governor is.

But of course, I’m pulling for Inslee.

5. Americafirst spews:

@1. Roger Rabbit spews:
“In the end, he’ll get the 40%”
—————————–
You are full of shit, he’ll surge to 45%.

@2. rhp6033 spews:

They key will be to push McKenna on the budget issues. Don’t let him get away with all those non-answers like “ferreting out waste and abuse”, and “letting the taxpayers keep their own money”, or “restraining out-of-control government spending. Make him identify exactly how he plans to balance the budget next time around, and exactly what programs he’s planning to cut.
————————-
Right, make him be as specific as Inslee is.

@4. Michael spews:
I’ve decided to find ways to make the glass half-full and filling regardless of who the governor is.
——————————-
That is a great relief.

6. Politically Incorrect spews:

The Democrats always win in the governor’s race. Why bother to field any other candidates?

7. Michael spews:

@
John Spellman (R) won once, but then he was the more liberal person in the race.

8. Ekim spews:

@4. Michael spews:
I’ve decided to find ways to make the glass half-full and filling regardless of who the governor is.

Just add Metamucil. :-)

9. rewinn spews:

Cautious optimism is fine, but remember that there is now, effectively, no limit on the amount of money that can be spent on a race. All the Koch brothers need is a motive: why should they invest their money in buying a Washington State governorship instead of some other place?

10. you voted for the fools, now you pay the consequences spews:

koch brothers! BAWK BAWK! koch brothers! BAWK BAWK!

11. Roger Rabbit spews:

@5 Well, I said 42% to 44% (if you read my whole comment), and you’re saying 45%, so we’re not that far apart. I’m not sure where you think the other 1% will come from, maybe the cemeteries in Chelan County?

12. Roger Rabbit spews:

@5 (continued) Inslee isn’t the one promising unrealistic budget cuts. As far as I know, Inslee is backing a budget much like the one we have now, so if you want to know what Inslee’s position is, just read the state budget.

13. Roger Rabbit spews:

@6 It looks better if the Democrat has a token opponent.

14. Roger Rabbit spews:

Which brings up another point. If we didn’t have a Republican Party in our state, we Democrats would have to recruit one, just to preserve the appearance of a two-party system. We’re almost there now.

15. Roger Rabbit spews:

@7 Yeah, that was a weird election, probably the weirdest election we’ve ever had in our state.

16. YLB spews:

BAWK BAWK!

Clear out folks. That’s the sound of an asshat troll mating call..

17. you voted for the fools, now you pay the consequences spews:

@`6

it never fails to get your old lady wet-n-stinky.

@14
yep, and just look at how great our state budget it with one party in charge. Good job nitwit.

18. Politically Incorrect spews:

“If we didn’t have a Republican Party in our state, we Democrats would have to recruit one, just to preserve the appearance of a two-party system.”

Well, you certainly don’t have far to go before it’s only Democrats. What would happen is that eventually the Democrats would split into two or more parties. Disagreements will eventually crop-up within any political party, which would in-turn lead to the creation of another party.

What we really need in more than two parties. Where is it carved in stone that the Democrats and Republicans represent the sum total of all political, social and economic opinions in this country? I’d prefer multiple political parties with coalition government the norm.

19. Politically Incorrect spews:

@`6

it never fails to get your old lady wet-n-stinky.

Yeah, good luck with that one!

20. White Privilege winning contestant spews:

How come Inslee isn’t running on a progressive platform of raising taxes, expanding state services, offering aid to undocumented workers, increasing state workers salaries and benefits?

Instead he’s promising not to raise taxes. Sounds like the Right wins no matter what!